KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton (Sun, 30 Jun, 2024)

KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton on Sun, 30 Jun, 2024

Episode Transcript

(00:04):
Voice with Jeff Barton, your voicein the mortgage industry. Each week on
this program, Jeff and his guestsshare their expertise, personal antidotes, and
the latest industry news to keep youand the loops now to provide you with
insights and help you navigate the consistentlychanging world of real estate lending. Here
is your host for the Mortgage Voice, Jeff Barton. Welcome back, everybody.

(00:26):
I'm Jeff Bartner, your Voice inthe mortgage industry. Thanks very much
for tuning into the show listening tous as we come to each and every
week with information that might help youdecide whether you want a mortgage, what
cost the mortgage might be, maybesome real estate questions that you might have.
How in fact, I, asa buyer, am going to pay
for a real estate agent when Ibasically can't seem to afford a mortgage.

(00:48):
Yes, it's a big question,especially nowadays when that lawsuit went through and
NAAR settled. I don't want toget in too heavily on that, but
there are some changes that you haveto take into account this time this year.
If you go out there and you'relooking for a house, obviously,
prices are what they are They're high, right, I mean everybody knows that,
and we also know that the mortgageindust rates are also high. Both

(01:11):
of these things together make your jobdifficult, which is why thinking about the
commissions and the guy who are galwho's going to come and help you as
a real estate agent. Yeah,you got to think about these things and
figure out the best way to getthe most experienced person at the least amount
of price. It's kind of likebuying a house, right. You want
the best house, the cheapest house, and the best location, and usually

(01:34):
that you know in this market wherein California, I guess Southern California,
the median house costs about seven hundredand sixty thousand dollars. That's a lot
of dope. I mean, ifyou look across the country about other things
that are available out there, whetherit's in South Carolina, whether it's in
South Dakota for that matter, orNew Mexico. I mean there are house

(01:56):
prices there are three hundred and fiftythousand dollars, but worth twice that.
Twice that plus Southern California is atough market to buy into. Most people
that do live here for a longtime have owned their house for a generation,
maybe two, and the house getspassed down one person to another.
There's the lock in rate that isan issue. Of course, everyone knows
about that. I got a threepercent mortgage, Why am I going to

(02:17):
sell and get a seven percent mortgage? Anyway, I'm Jeff Barton. This
is the Mortgage Voice. If youwant to see and hear this show as
well as past shows, ten yearsof pass shows almost anyway, go to
YouTube Jeff Barton the Mortgage Voice.That's our YouTube channel, and as I
said, we've been there for hundredsand hundreds of shows. It's a great

(02:38):
place to get an education as towhat's been happening on a weekly basis for
all that time. We don't alwaysget it right, but we usually correct
what we said in previous shows onshows that come up. So if there's
something that you need to know moreinformation about, you can always call us.
You can always email us, andoh we also have a terrific website

(02:59):
that you can go to contact usthat way. It's the Mortgage Voice dot
com. And when you go thereyou can see our guests, past guests,
guests that are on the current show, and you can contact them directly
or you can you know, emailthem or call them or listen to them
again. I'm Jeff Barton. Thisis the Mortgage Voice, and again thanks
for tuning in. Let's get rightto it's the little business of the show

(03:20):
that we'd like to get to.The interest rates. The interest rates have
been changing, fluctuating a little bit, but they've hovered around seven percent for
the last three four weeks. Sevenpoint zero three percent is the thirty year
fix rate. Six point four tofour is the fifteen year, six point
four to eight is faha, sevenpoint two five is the jumbo, and
six point four to nine is theVA. The two years at four point

(03:42):
seven three six, and the tenyears at four point two three eight.
You know that spread that I alwaystalk about and have said for you know,
a number of years, that thisportends what's gonna happen in the future,
whether it's going to be a recessionor whether we're gonna, you know,
get out of the recession. Wellit comes up again and again and
again. It's like the market doesn'tseem to want to let go of this
old adage that if we have aninversion in the yield curve. The two

(04:05):
years I said, is at fourpoint seven, the ten years at four
point two, meaning that if youinvest short term you'll make more than if
you invest long term. That's aninversion, right, That means it's opposite
of what it normally is going tobe. Well, as a result of
that, people have it in theirheads continuously. Economists, people who are
old school, anybody who has followedeconomics through the last ten recessions will say

(04:30):
that prior to that recession you havethis inversion. The two year makes more
than a ten year. Well,we've been at this inversion at this current
time for about oh gosh, ithas to be fifteen, maybe twenty months,
almost two years, let's say.So the soft landing or the coming

(04:53):
off of heavy inflation is not goingto send us into a recession. It's
going to be slow and steady untilwe get back to two percent. This
isn't from my I'm not saying that. That's what Jerome Powell says, and
Jerome poll of courses ahead of theFED. A lot of FED governors agree

(05:13):
with Jerome Poull. Some say,hey, you know what, maybe we
got to raise the interest rate hereat the FED, the interesting that we
charge our member banks. Maybe wehave to raise it rather than lower it.
The economy has been doing very wellover the last time six sixteen months
or so, and what we seegoing into the presidential election is a pretty

(05:34):
much holding pattern on a lot ofeconomic indices. So we're probably not going
to see the Fed do anything untilafter the election. We're probably not going
to see the GDP fluctuate much morethan it has been over the last two
quarters. You'll end up everything AndI have a GDP outlook here, and
I'll just get right to that rightaway. Let's see. So the GDP

(05:57):
tracking, now we do this everymonth or so, and we we go
to two or three different sources tofind out what they think the second quarter
GDP is going to be okay,So the GDP tracking Bank of America says
it's one point eight percent, Goldmansays it's one point nine percent, and
the Atlanta Fed, which is alwaysthe most optimistic, is it three percent.
So somewhere between one point seventy fiveand two point seventy five is where

(06:18):
the GDP is going to land.And that means, as I was saying,
economy is pretty good. Right,Everybody is looking at where we are
and what we're doing inflation is driftingdownward. We're going to have some revised
numbers probably in before we get thenew numbers out for June. And let's
see what is it June twenty fifth, June twenty sixth, today, June

(06:39):
twenty fifth. I think keep yourjob, and is this a good time
to buy a house? All ofthese questions are answered to my opinion in
the affirmative. Yeah, yeah,yeah, and yeah, I think it's
a great time to buy a houseif you can find one. Now,
inventory, the housing inventory is upsix point three percent year over year,
and that's a good thing. Theactual numbers for the housing is let's see

(07:01):
it. I get the drum rollhere in a second, let's see so,
Yes, the inventory is up twopoint two percent week over a week
and thirty seven point seven percent yearover year. Now we all know that
during the pandemic, housing inventory wentto zip. As I said, we
had interest rates fall down to twopercent, three percent, four percent,

(07:26):
and seventy eighty percent of the loansout there currently are under five percent.
So you're not going to get alot of turnover because people want to refire
or take money out, or geta better interest rate or that it's a
wash, and they need the moneybecause of whatever reason they need the money.
They want to invest in something,they need somebody to send to college,
maybe some medical reasons, all ofthese things being what they are,
most people are sitting on what theyhave as a mortgage. So when we

(07:48):
see inventory increase, that's a goodthing because there's only two ways that people
are going to be affording a mortgagetoday, at least typically a mortgage to
either you're gonna have the interest ratesfall or you're gonna have the home prices
fall. And the only way you'regonna have home prices fall is if you've
got more houses on the market.So we've seen some softening in certain markets

(08:09):
around the country. Talked about ita couple of weeks ago when we had
the show. We see here insouthern California, however, an increase but
not a decrease, meaning that we'llsee more at inventory, but we haven't
yet to see the crossover into lowercosts for you to buy that house.
Do I think it's coming? Yeah, I guess so. I mean,
it's it's a guess from me,but I'm not the only one saying this.

(08:31):
This is the National Association of RealtorsCalifornia Association of Realtors are talking about
lower real estate prices and as aresult of rising inventories. Now, the
rising inventories, it's always a youknow, why are they rising, Well,
it's because we're not getting enough buyersinto the market buying property at their
current values. So therefore property isgonna sit longer. And as the properties

(08:54):
sit longer, you know what happenswith prices. Prices usually come down.
We're not there yet. We maysee some of that towards the end of
the summer. But of course,if you've got to kids, you got
to go to school, your newjob, you gotta move, whatever that
is, you probably already made yourdecision. You're probably already making your decision
right now. It's the end ofJune. Summer just started. We're about
ready to go into July, August. Those are the months that deals get

(09:16):
closed. I mean, if you'rein a situation right now, well you
gotta move. The one good thingis that we see some softening in rents,
So if you have to get outthere and look at properties for rentals,
rentals are not as high as theywere and they're not as skyrocketing as
they were. The biggest component ininflation, as everyone knows, is the
housing portion of it, what theycall the what do they call that house

(09:41):
unhoused the house section of it.So if we're looking at five to six
percent rise in real estate rental pricesover the past year, that's one of
the bigger components, probably forty tofifty percent of the inflation index. Anyway,
I'm Jeff part and your voice inthe mortgage industry. Thanks for tuning

(10:01):
in. We'll be right back.You're listening to the Mortgage Voice with Jeff
Barton. We'll be right back withmore and just a moment for questions or
comments, send emails to info atMelibu funding dot net. Now back to
the Mortgage Voice with your host,Jeff Barton. Welcome back, everybody on
Jeff Barton, your Voice in themortgage industry. Thanks very much for tuning

(10:24):
in listening to us on a weeklybasis. We're at CASEAA. The great
folks over there, Fred and Markand everybody else is on the board and
doing all the technical aspects. Havea great signal. It's on AM and
FM and we come to on aweekly basis and have been doing so.
On Saturday and Sunday for close toa decade. So thanks very much for
your patronage for listening to us.And again I am Jeff Barton. This

(10:48):
is the Mortgage Voice. We arealso on a number of different podcasts and
these podcasts are easily available all theshows. We have plenty of archives,
Daryl, they have a listen tothat for us, I sure do.
Jeffrey Chapple podcast, Google Podcasts,Spotify, Speaker, Stitcher, iHeartMedia,
Odyssey, YouTube, podclips dot ioand the Mortgage Voice dot Com excellent.
Okay, the Mortgage Voice dot Com, as I said, is our uh

(11:11):
is our et What am I saying? It's ours our web address, it's
our website and if you go thereyou can see passing present shows as well
as some of the guests have beenon the show for many times and some
of you may have not known aboutor how to get in touch with them.
Anyway you can do that now.Also, podclipsot iow great central place
for all your podcasting needs if youin fact need a place to go where

(11:33):
you don't have to search several differentwebsites. As we just read off,
podclipsot io is a great place whereyou can find all your podcasting needs go
there. I'm Jeff Bartin. Thisis the Mortgage Voice. Once again.
We have many different things in thenews. It's kind of the news to
use section. I'll just go througha little bit of it. Unemployment ticked
up to four percent. As wesaid last month. One of the things
about the economy, if we're goingto see inflation come down, we have

(11:58):
to see a bit of a hikeunemployment. And that's why we went from
three point five percent to four percentbecause employment rates as they are not employing
enough people. Now, some peoplesay this is a bell weather for gauging
exactly where we are in the inflationfight. I think there are. So

(12:20):
I was talking to Larry and Iwasn't talking. I was listening to Larry
Summers, who used to be theTreasury Secretary. I think it was under
Clinton, was it under Bush?Probably under Bush? Right, he's a
Republican guy anyway. So Larry Summers, smart guy, and he's really talking
about why the inflation chase. Ie, are we going to see the
inflation rate come down a lot quickerthan it was? He was saying,

(12:43):
No, probably not. He's sayingthe downtech last month in inflation had to
do more with cyclical and monthly,not long term, and the long term
strategy is probably higher for longer onrates, he's saying, let's not get
into a situation where we lower ratesand then have to raise the rates again.
And so he's much more of aconservative guy when it comes to look

(13:03):
at that. So if he's saying, Okay, I'm gonna look at the
unemployment at four percent, is thata good thing? Well, if you're
an employee or somebody looking for ajob, maybe it isn't. But we
still have more jobs than we havepeople looking for jobs, So it's just
a matter of fit. If yourjob that you're looking for is in that
group that is available, then you'regreat. We also see a lot of

(13:24):
participation in the labor force. It'ssummertime. There's a lot of part time
jobs, so because there's more peopleparticipating, that's another reason why the unemployment
rate went up. Yeah, interestingstuff as well. Okay, so in
intelection year, we always talk aboutthings that matter. Now, you and

(13:45):
I I don't know. I don'tget that involved in politics. Some things
make me mad. I can't goon X, I can't go on Facebook,
I can't go on even LinkedIn,which I used to love all these
sites because it was just random thingsyou can find from different people opinions.
But now it's been taken over bya whole wave of you gotta do this,
you gotta do that, this isthe worst thing that's ever gonna happen,

(14:05):
the world's gonna end. Now itjust really bothers me. So I
went looking for some positive signs,which is what I like to do,
of what's going on in the economynow, like football, like soccer,
like basketball. I'm a Celtics fan. Celtics won the championship. Heay for
me, right, Why do Ifeel good? I don't know. I
have nothing to do with that teamother than I'm a fan, but it

(14:26):
makes you feel good. So someof the things that make you feel good
about the US economy, And Iwrote down several of these facts. And
I don't know if it'll make youfeel good enough to go out and buy
a house, but it might.Okay, four point three percent of the
world population lives in the United States. Okay, four percent, let's say
four percent. Twenty six percent ofthe global GDP is in the United States.

(14:50):
So you look at that number andyou go Wow. So the rest
of the world, which is ninetysix percent of the population, only has
seventy five percent of the GDP,So that's a good thing. It just
talks about how the US economy dwarfsevery economy in the world, almost to
the point where it's not a comparisonat all. Eighty five thousand dollars a

(15:13):
year is the per capita income inthe US. Eighty five thousand dollars a
year, just as an example.In India it's twenty five hundred dollars a
year. In China it's eleven thousanddollars a year. So you make these
comparisons, and we always do aboutthe competition, about who is the best,
and about where our money is going, and about how US products aren't
competitive. Well, you look atwhat the numbers are, you can say,

(15:37):
wow, these numbers are astounding.And one of the reasons they're astounding
is because of the character and thenature of who we are and what we
do here in the US in termsof innovation, in terms of production,
all the things that we need inorder to stay competitive. One of the
articles I was reading talked about thebust and boom cycle. Now we're you

(16:00):
know, that's a very famous fifties, sixties, seventies, eighties, where
one industry will just dominate for awhile and then all of a sudden they're
gone. Well, since two thousand, the SMP five hundred, half the
companies in the SMP five hundred don'texist anymore. That's only in twenty four
years. So the idea that wekeep recycling, or we keep innovating,

(16:26):
we keep branding, bringing up andinventing new things and new ways to be
able to dominate in certain ways.It's the character of the country. And
I think, whoever wins this ridiculousbandwagon of a circus election that we've got
going, it's still going to continuethat way because it's you, it's me.
I went from a guy who wasa twenty five to thirty year person

(16:51):
in the mortgage industry. I soldmy company I don't know, nine months
ago, ten months ago. I'mnow in a completely different field and as
successful as I was now. Ithink that kind of spirit is kind of
is the kind of spirit that weneed to more positively look at rather than
this person's taken for me, sowe have to do something bad to them.

(17:14):
That's just the personal opinion I thinkthere's opportunity out there. For now.
I'm lucky, right, I've gota lot of things going for me,
and and most prominently it's it's age, experience and money in the bank.
All these things are pretty good foranybody who's out there who has the
same. But if you're young,if you're new, if you're looking for
a house, housing is the bestway to get into the game. Ninety

(17:37):
percent of US millionaires did so throughreal estate. Okay, let's just move
on. Housing is up six pointthree percent year over years. I said,
thirty seven percent more housing than therewas last year. The FED target
rate next year. Okay. SoJanet Yellen, everybody knows Janet Yelling,
and she's the treasure secretary for Bidenand administration. She used to be the

(18:00):
head of the FED. Right,So there's this long chain of very accomplished
people who have been at the FED. Whether it's Alan greenspand and it's Ben
Bernaki, or whether it's the currentguy, Jerome Powell. Well, Janet
Yellen wedged in there as well.She says that we will hit the inflation
target of two percent in twenty twentyfive. That's good news. All of

(18:25):
these things are really good news.Consumer confidence one hundred point four. It's
down a little bit since last month. Let's see US oil eighty one dollars
a barrel. That's West Texas Intermediatenow oil this summer, it's always a
thing here in California. We seeprices go up, and we wonder why
we not only pump oil, werefine oil, but most of the oil

(18:48):
here in the US in California isshipped out of state. We don't consume
our local oil. I don't knowwhy, but that just seems to be
the way. The markets run soslow second half of the twenty twenty four
and that's probably due to the factthat one we have a great deal of

(19:11):
inflation still in certain areas of theeconomy, and fuel is one of them.
Housing is another one, and newcars there is another one fifteen point
seven million units this year. Itwill be up one point three percent from
twenty twenty three. And rates raise. That's what FED Bowman says. He's
one of the FED governors, andhe says that the rate for which we

(19:33):
charge member banks, the FED mayraise rate in order to keep inflation fight
going. I don't think it's agreat idea. Just because I think not
only the equities in the stock marketget killed, but anybody who's got a
four to h one k or anyother kind of long term retirement, that's
not a good thing. I'm JeffPartner, your voice in the mortgage industry.
We got a big show for you, and I'll be right back.

(19:56):
You're listening to the Mortgage Boys withJeff Barton. You right back with more
and just a moment for questions orcomments. Send emails to info at melibocumdings
dot net. Now back to theMortgage Boys with your host, Jeff Barton.
Welcome back, everybody. I'm JeffBarton, your voice in the mortgage
industry. Thanks very much for tuninginto the show, for listening to us

(20:18):
on a weekly basis, as webring to you the best and most current
information about what loan products are outthere, as well as an update on
real estate, some of the goingson in the economy. Certainly anything that'll
get your eyes off the ball ofbuying and this silly season, there's a
ton of them, but refocusing lookingat what's available out there and taking advantage

(20:40):
of every situation. As I said, inventories up and we're really happy about
that. But we need to seeprices come down, and we need to
see a little bit more steady lookat long term interest rates. But I'm
not the person to do that.As I always say, I bring the
best people on the show, andTom Osterho is no exception, been on
the show many times from Jet Mortgage. He joins us now to help answer

(21:03):
these questions. Tomas, how areyou? I'm doing great? Jeff,
how are you today? I'm okay. As we were talking off air,
I'm hot. I don't know aboutyou, but it's hot. It is.
You know, it's funny. Ithappens every year. It's freezing in
California. California is one of thosefunny places, right Sometimes in the summer,
if you're in the shade, you'recool, and it could be one

(21:23):
hundred and two out. It's justa weird place that way. But where
do you see where we are?And uh, let's say I'm a first
time home buyer and I come toyou and I say, look, I've
got, you know, one hundredthousand bucks. I want to buy a
house. What kind of loan product? My my, you know, my

(21:45):
FICO score is not that great.What do you suggest to people when they
come to you like that, I'msure there's plenty of them. There's plenty
of them. And I was thefirst thing I'd always tell them is,
you know, cause the first thingI hear is, oh the rate,
the rate, the rate, therate. Oh my god, the rate.
And I tell everybody, look,if you wait for the rate to
go down, you're never gonna geta house, because as soon as those

(22:06):
rates go down, those prices aregonna shoot. I mean people back in
the seventies, I remember my fatherhe was he was doing the same thing.
Oh the rate, the rate.I mean back then it was twenty
percent and exactly twenty percent five pointsand you know that's what you paid.
But okay, the houses were lower, but so it was income, right,
So that's right. And one dayhe was like, I said,

(22:30):
well, you're gonna buy it,Pop, You're gonna buy it. He
said, well, you know,son, I'm only gonna get more money
on this thing. The thing's gonnago up in value one day. The
prices of the rates might come down. Everyone get cheaper. And he was
right now that that was that onehundred thousand dollars, three thousand square foot
house. It's worth a twenty dollars. He bought it for one hundred and
fifty thousand. So I tell everybody, look, if you're ready to do

(22:53):
something, then you gotta do it. You gotta do it now because you
can always need to go. Wenegotiate the rate, You're never gonna renegotiate
that price. Yeah, I agree. I one hundred percent agree. And
with rents being what they are,I mean, if you look at your
rental and you could make that paymentto a mortgage, wouldn't it be better
to do that with a mortgage?You venisly I had to pay a few
more bucks one hundred percent. Actually, my mortgage people that are around me

(23:18):
pay more in rent for the samehouse or smaller than I do in a
mortgage payment. It's ridiculous. Andso going back to your question, why
do I tell somebody I want toget going? I said, yeah,
let's get going, Let's get together. Let's get the most a you can
afford in the best neighborhoods you canafford, because when that thing goes up,
you're gonna start making money, andthis thing is gonna pay for itself
in a couple of years. Yeah, I agree with you, and as

(23:41):
you said, rates being what theyare. You know, they've really remained
for the past ninety days pretty closeto what they are today. I mean,
I don't think they're bad. Imean, but then again, I
came from a place where it wastwenty percent and you know, no,
that's true. But I mean,let's say you got a thirty year fixed
a seven percent or thereabouts six anda half to seven percent. That's still
not so bad. Oh, that'snot bad at all. We were selling

(24:03):
that back in two thousand and five, right right when people by the hot
market, right was that was goingrate. I mean a couple of years
ago, and we've never seen aone percent rate. It's two percent of
three percent. I mean, thatwas great if you got in, But
I mean, it's not realistic.I don't think it'll ever happen again.
But you know, who am Iwho? Do I know? What?
Do I know? Interesting? Yousay that, so these mortgages, which

(24:26):
are about eighty percent of people whohave a mortgage under five percent? Do
you think this wash through rate isgoing to increase the further away we get
from COVID, meaning that people willfinally say, hey, you know what
I need? The equity in myproperty, or I got to sell,
or you know, because eighty percentof the houses out there with a mortgage

(24:47):
under five percent, nobody's going togo anywhere. I just know the way
people are. They just things happen, they need money, or they they
sell or you know, I justdon't know when that's gonna happen. And
I think everybody's waiting around for thatto happen. I think you're one hundred
percent right. I mean, I'vealready seen it happen. It's already happening.
It's been happening. People are gettingdivorced, people are passing away.
They got to do something. Soyeah, they're getting they're selling the house,

(25:10):
they're they're refight answering the house theygot to buy. They got paid
tuition, they don't have enough money, they came up short. They got
to refight the house. Get somemoney out. But here's a good intro.
That's why we do seconds. We'redoing stawn loan seconds. Well,
you don't have to touch your firsttake the seconds, pull the money you
need. I'm moving to six hundredthousand on a second. We'll do a

(25:30):
P and L only loan on asecond, which is pretty damn good.
A P and L only loan fora second, Explain, tell people what
the P and L is. Whatare you talking about, because a lot
of people who have equity in theirhouse say they don't know from second versus
P and L versus full doc,they don't know. Sure, sure,
I get that. So if youare a self employed borrower, or if

(25:51):
you have a side gig, ifyou have a side business, if you
sell t shirts that swap me,you can use that income. You may
not report at all, And that'sfine. I'm not asking you to.
I'm not asking for proof. I'mnot asking for a forty five or six.
I'm not asking for tax transcripts.Give me a P and L from
your local neighborhood. Tax prepare doesn'thave to be a CPA. He'll say,
Hey, Mike, my client RoyJunior here, he paid. He

(26:17):
makes one hundred thousand, Yeah,and it only he only weighs twenty percent
of that to keep the business going. And he's been doing it for two
years and that's all I need.And you're getting a loan, okay,
that sounds good. And you setup to six hundred and fifty thousand dollars,
what's the fycle score. They needthat want to be a sixty sixty
okay, so that you're not tryingto kill people on the Fyco score either,

(26:41):
six sixties. You know, Iwould say most people have at least
that, if not better. Yeah, it's not that bad. I mean,
you know, it's what's the betterthe Fycle obviously the better of the
rates. Absolutely. Okay, Sothis second how popular is it? It's
pretty popular right now. It's areally hot product. It's like, well,
like you were saying, nobody's goingto touch the rate under five percent,
it ain't happy. I mean,one of my best friends has a

(27:03):
one percent rate and he needs money, so we did we did a second
for him because there was no wayhe was going to touch a one percent
rate. No, not on yourprinciple, Why would you? It's silly.
Yeah, I mean he pays double, but he pays double the payments
which turned out to be what heused to pay prior to refinancing, and
he'll have his house paid off infifteen years and it's a thirty year loan.

(27:26):
How do you go wrong? Itotally agree. Assumable mortgages. Do
you think any way that we'll seethose come back into the marketplace because of
the rates being what they are forthese low interest rate loans that people have.
Do you think it'll be any waythat they'll be able to assume let
loan if they sell it to somebodyelse, or the new bar will be

(27:47):
able to assume it. I wouldlove to say yeah, because that used
to be a big thing back inthe eighties. Yeah, it was huge,
right right. Everybody was assuming.But then Lendard starts saying, wait
a minute'm not getting paid out.No, I don't want to do this.
I don't want to do that.Even kal Haff, which which used
to be a super Bowl, they'renot assuming them anymore. So I don't
I don't see that coming back anytimesoon. So you never know, Yeah,

(28:08):
you never know. Well, youknow, you have your ears to
the ground and you've been in thebusiness a long time, uh, just
trying to find solutions to the housingcrisis. Do you think it's pretty much
hands off? The government itself isnot going to do anything unless it's a
down payment assistant or some other typeof program like that. They're just going
to leave it the way it isand see what happens. You know,

(28:29):
the whole the whole thing is justit's different. It's totally different. Before
in an election year, you knewthe raps were going to come down,
you knew the economy was going tobe booming, and you knew you were
going to have a great year.But it hasn't happened this year, which
is shocking to me. It's shockingto everybody because we thought we were going
to have a bunch of rate drops, but yep, we did. We
never we never had any of them. And now they're talking maybe September.

(28:52):
But I don't think so. Notright before the election, I don't think
so. I think they're going tobe a hands off on this thing.
It's quietly not doing anything. AsI was saying earlier in the show,
I think after the election you mightsee some movement. Right. It really
depends on what inflation does. ButI you know what, uh, in
listening to some of the economists talkingabout, hey, why are we going
it for two percent? Why don'twe go for two and a half percent?

(29:15):
Is the is the bottom line figurethat we need for inflation? I
mean before COVID they were talking theywanted to get it back up to three
percent. Now it's two percent.Again, it's just very confusing as to
why that's the magic number. Honestly, I don't even think that they know.
Everybody's guessing. Who knows that beforeif the bond went up, you
knew the rate was going to go, and if the bond went down,
you knew the rate was going toI mean, we all knew, we

(29:37):
all had indicators, and we knewwe need to float. It's not like
that anymore. I mean, thebond can go up and now the rate
goes up, and yeah, itmakes makes it makes no sense. Tomas,
thanks for coming on listen. Couldyou shout out a way by which
people can get in touch with youabout this great second loan you have?
Absolutely well, my name is themonstre here. You can always get me
on my cell phone at three twothree eight five one eight one, or

(30:02):
you can always email me and Iam the Big Bad Loan Daddy at gmail
dot com. Excellent. Thank you, Thomas, very very much, appreciate
you coming on as always. Absolutelythank you, Jeff, thank you very
much. That's Tomas Trahiro from JetMortgage. I'm Jeff partin your voice in
the mortgage industry. We'll be rightback. You're listening to the Mortgage Boys

(30:22):
with Jeff Barton. We'll be rightback with more and just a moment.
For questions or comments, send emailsto info at Melibu funding dot net.
Now back to the Mortgage Boys withyour host, Jeff Barton. Welcome back,
everybody. I'm Jeff Bartin, yourvoice in the mortgage industry. Thanks
very much for tuning into the show, listening to us. Each and every

(30:44):
week. We bring to you information, good information. Some of it's not
great information, but I didn't originateit. It comes from what's happening in
the economy, what's happening in realestate mortgages rates. Actually, the rates
aren't as bad as people say.All you have to do is look back
several years and say, hey,you know what, and a half seven
percent not bad. Really, whatis bad is limitations on the availability of

(31:06):
property. The cost of some citiesis way, way, way out of
range. I read an article todaysaid that five of the top cities that
would probably see a fall in realestate prices over the next five years,
and of course this is what if, what if? What if? But
Los Angeles was number one. Oneof the cities that didn't come up was
Las Vegas, Nevada. And oneof my friends and person that has come

(31:30):
on the show many times, JenniferConrad, who works over at Malibu Funding,
is graciously at acquiesced to come onthe show once again. Jennifer,
how are you. I'm doing well, Jill, thank you so much for
having me back. Thank you andthank you very much for coming on the
show. Okay, so with thatlong winded intro, tell us what's happening

(31:51):
in Las Vegas. We haven't hadan interview with someone out there. We
used to have a station that wewere affiliated with out there. But tell
us about the Las Vegas market andwhat kind of loans you're doing for customers
who are needing someone to give themloan. It does seem like a lot
more people are interested in purchasing rightnow. I'm doing a lot of investment
purchases, so it almost seems likea lot of people are maybe trying to

(32:15):
purchase to either have as like anAirbnb or condo tel something. You know,
it's going to be a short termrental since there are so many people
who want to visit, you know, I spend time there. I'm doing
a few second homes, but thebulk of it is pretty much condos.
And if you look around Las Vegas, it looks like there are so many

(32:36):
condo units that are going up bous. You know, they're catering to the
fact that that seems to be theinterest that people are are kind of steering
towards. Do you see now incertain states like California with the wildfires and
down in Florida with obviously the weatherproblems they have down there with hurricanes and
that kind of thing affecting homeless insurance? Is there such an issue out there

(32:58):
in Vegas in terms of the heator in any other natural thing that might
make price of either your insurance orthe condo itself go up because of the
heating and the air conditioning. Ican't say that I've experienced that, you
know, I've spoken with people andthen I've gotten quotes myself. I guess
a lot of them might have todo with if you're dealing with certain certain

(33:19):
companies that have a lot of carriersin the area, I mean relatively speaking,
when you compare it to Florida,you know, where I saw one
that was seven thousand dollars last month, yeah, you know, or California,
where I've seen one for five thousand. Yes, it's definitely not that.
But then again too, when I'mfocusing on people purchasing condos and we

(33:39):
have the master policy that's covered bythe association, and so borrowers are basically
just getting coverage, you know,for the interior walls and their own personal
items. So that's all, youknow, a fraction of the cost.
Okay, very good. No,I know, insurance in those areas that
I mentioned is making the the costof the condominium really reflect the fact that

(34:00):
getting omer's insurance or the HOA insurancethat then you get assessed for has been
a real problem. But I'm gladin Vegas it hasn't been. No,
I haven't experienced that so far.Like that, No, exactly, Okay,
tell us some condo loans, whatare they selling for and what kind
of terms are you getting? Rightnow? I'm seeing things, you know,

(34:21):
between like two eighty five, threeten, single family, you know,
in certain areas like roads, ranchmay go more like you know,
five five, twenty five somewhere inthere. And what I do notice is
that the HA fees are considerably lessthan when you consider California. So a
lot of places in California. You'relooking at five hundred to start, you

(34:45):
know, on assessments, and youcan find places in Las Vegas, you
know, two twenty five, twofifty somewhere in they're nice places. So
yeah, I think a lot ofpeople are interested in trying to make a
transition to that area. How doyou like the actual living in there on
a day to day basis? Ilove it? Okay, Okay, no,

(35:07):
I mean, hey, I'm gladyou do. I happen to like
Vegas a lot. I don't knowif i'd live there just because I can't
take the heat, but air conditioningbeing what it is, it's pretty good
still, you know, I dofeel like that maybe there's more of a
focus to make sure that you havecentral air and that it works well there,

(35:28):
maybe more so than in California.It does feel like it's extreme heat,
but I guess a lot of thattoo, is you know, just
kind of planning your day to makesure you know you're not out in it,
but then are able to get outand enjoy either early or later in
the day. So I guess,you know, anywhere you live has,
you know, is positives and it'sdrawbacks, and it's just a matter of
you know, how we approach it. So have you seen a difference between

(35:52):
pre pandemic and now post pandemic andthe way buyers approach loans themselves. Is
it the same issues and problems thatyou might have trying to ask a buyer
for certain documentation or has there beenan education or a lack there of an
education in terms of the buyer you'reseeing today? Are just trying to get
a feel ast too. Yes,you've been in the business a long time,

(36:13):
and not only as an originator,but you also do a lot of
processing underwriting for different lenders. Haveyou seen a difference in the profile of
the borrower then versus now? Itdoes feel like there are more people needing
a down payment assistance program. Ithink there have been some people who did
not realize that maybe none of usreally knew, you know, with some

(36:35):
of the lenders putting things into place, like you know, you could delay
making a payment, you know,for a year, and then being in
situations now where some lenders are actuallysaying that that is an issue with you
being able to refinance. As faras like purchases, there seems to be
a drive of you know, Iremember you might see one or two lenders
that offered a down payment assistance program, and now it feels like every lender

(36:59):
has that, you know. Butit also feels like a lot more condo
projects are not FAHA approved. Obviously, if you are buying a single family
home, you know, then youcan use those programs. And it feels
like the buyers are more aware ofthe fact that they have down payment options,
right, and so they want toutilize those. They come in kind
of letting you know that that's,you know, what they want to want

(37:19):
to be able to use. Areyou running into any problems with realtors being
that they had that lawsuit and nowit looks like the buyer's agent can't necessarily
use the Sevice Commission in order toget paid. Are buyers looking for experienced
people to help them, like,for instance, you're on the mortgage side.
Are they asking you real estate questionsnow more than they used to?

(37:44):
I can just say that I raninto an agent that was in the Midwest.
I really had to educate her onevery aspect, you know, making
sure the condo project was FUTA approved, explaining what certain terms were regarding ernest
money, everything, until I hadthe question you know, like, you
know, how long have you beendoing this, But in regards to like,

(38:07):
you know, questions regarding their commissionsor how they're affected, No,
I'm not experienced that, so I'massuming that something that sort of gets worked
out before it actually gets to me. Yeah. Well, I was just
wondering if if a lot of theburden of as you were just explaining education
of the agent or just letting themknow exactly how things work in certain areas

(38:27):
used to be when they, youknow, were paid a little bit more,
you'd get more experienced agents. Butnow those agents are no longer doing
that kind of work because you don'tget paid automatically. You'd just be a
listening agent. That's it. Yeah. Well, I mean I think it's
always been a situation where we weresharing information, but I can't say that,
you know, I've had, likeI said, that, one particular
experience. But I do find thatthere are loan officers, if I am

(38:51):
processing for them, there are loanofficers who probably could stand to, you
know, brush up on some education, because there's a lot of things that
they don't seem to know. Idon't know if maybe it's because you know,
on the processing side. You're sortof in it all day, every
day, and so you're exposed tomore things to understand how things are changing.
But yeah, so I guess youknow, being on this and sometimes

(39:12):
you kind of educating loan officers anddealing with real estate agents experience or not,
and just kind of sharing information andbring them up to speed. Yeah,
no, I see that. Andobviously you know, as you fight
to close loans that you've had inthe pipeline for a long time or they're
done very quickly. Are you seeingany difference in the tightening or lessening of
lender guidelines over the past six monthsor so. I don't think it's any

(39:37):
more relaxed. Okay, I wouldsay that. I do think that,
you know, when you're looking atthings like, you know, barbers who
have high credit scores, who areyou know, putting down twenty twenty five
percent? We're getting more, atleast I am getting more property inspection waivers
even on purchases. And it usedto be a time when you know,

(39:59):
it would seldom to she would getsomething like that on a purchase, and
I know I've had three, youknow, just last week alone. Wow,
So I think that has a lotto do with the profile of the
bar wer. But then you haveother people maybe who have a few more
credit challenges, putting a little lessmoney down, and it does feel like,
you know, those files are scrutinizeda little bit more. Oh,

(40:19):
excellent, Listen, we've come tothe end of it. Could you do
me a favor and let people knowhow they can get in touch with you,
a terrific loan officer in many statesthat you can do your lending.
You're currently doing some in Las Vegastoday. But yeah, yeah, shout
out your number. Let people knowhow they get in touch with it.
Thank you so much, my numberseven seven three five nine three six eight

(40:40):
three one again seven seven three,five nine three six eight three one.
Jennifer, thank you so much forcoming on once again, saving the day,
doing well on the show. Iappreciate it very much. Thanks Jeff,
thank you very much. That's JenniferConrad for Malibu Funding. I'm Jeff
Martin, your voice in the mortgageindustry. We'll be right back. You're

(41:00):
listening to the Mortgage Boys with JeffBarton. We'll be right back with more
and just a moment for questions orcomments. Send emails to info at MELA
Gruppundings dot net. Now back tothe Mortgage Boys with your host Jeff Barton.
Welcome back, everybody on Jeff Barton, your voice in the mortgage industry.
Thanks very much for tuning into theshow, for listening to us on

(41:22):
a weekly basis, bringing to youinformation that you can use right now.
Today. You can size us up, kind of fit this into what your
box is in terms of borrowing andgoing out there and buying a home.
Although prices are high, yes theyare high, and the rates aren't the
most friendly, but they're not theworst either. Anybody that's older than five
years old will tell you six,seven, ten years ago, even in

(41:44):
two thousand, early two thousand,prices were high. So this is a
great opportunity for you to get outthere. One of the best people I
know who helps us always discern thatfrom what other noises there is in the
marketplace is Charles Giscom. He's fromUSF and he joins usnoutch Charles, how
are you? I'm doing great,Jeff, thanks for having me again.
Thank you too, Thanks very muchfor coming on the show. So what's

(42:07):
happening in your neck of the woods? Tell us a little bit about some
of the barrows you're dealing with andsome of the challenges that maybe a little
unusual this time of year. It'ssummer, it's hot, people get a
little squarely, and you know,there isn't that much inventory. All of
those things are true, Jeff everything, But what we're dealing with this we

(42:30):
see a little bit adjustment of theinterest rate. You know, I think
at thirty years six right now,and the average is about seven refinance mortgage
might be a little bit lower maybethan in the high six or six point
ninety five, six point ninety six, and you know the jumbos are about
seven and a half, seven pointthree, seven five to seven and a
half and above. So at theend of the day, interest rates aren't

(42:51):
great. They're better than they were, but they're just lingering around, you
know where we've been for the lastcouple of weeks. What I do know
is that because of the inventory.It's not because of the rates. It's
because of the inventory. It ispeople are rate conscious. But you know
what I like to tell them,and what we always talk about here is
there's different value added services that wecan add to your loan. So I'll

(43:14):
set the interest rate right at theend of the day, if you are
not looking to keep your home forthirty years, which I don't know who
else looks at that anymore. Thatis, let's do an ARM adjustable rate
mortgage or will get you a lowerinterest rate. Or let's do a longer
emortization period instead of thirty years,let's go to forty years. Both of

(43:36):
those strategies allow you to get lowerinterest rates mean lower payments as far as
the ARM is concerned. And forthe forty year loan, it allows you
a longer period of time. You'readding one hundred and twenty months to already
three hundred and sixty month loan term, which allows the payment to be stressed
out over a longer period of time, which obviously makes your monthly checked stroke

(43:59):
lower. That's what we've been usinglately to offset the higher interest rates that
people have been so spoiled but notused to a seeing, because one thing
I tell people is the lower interestrates may never come back, but the
interest rates will adjust themselves and getlower. Well, I think what you

(44:19):
know most people don't realize is thatwe're two years away from those low interest
rates. It really hasn't been thatlow for like, I say, twenty
four eighteen to twenty four months,and as we get further and further away
from that time period, people getused to the normal and say, yeah,
yeah, we can afford it,or we can't afford it. I
just think the house prices are sohigh. I was just talking to another
guest on the show talking about stuffout in Las Vegas. Now the price

(44:43):
is compared to you know, hotmarkets like Los Angeles, you know,
obviously are much much cheaper. Howare the house prices in some of the
areas where you're looking at doing loansor doing loans currently, Well, you
know what the house prices are relative, I mean they are the value is
kept. Can Charlotte and Georgia placesare going to keep their value. There's

(45:04):
going to be a lot of peopletransaction. And quite frankly, when I'm
talking to these individuals over here,Jeff, I pretty much just tell them,
listen, mortgage rates been volatile andit remain high. And according to
you know, all the different FreddyMax and Fannie mays, they're going to
hover around six point eight percent forthis week. Then we should not expect
them to decrease significantly anytime soon,Like Jeff said, at the end of

(45:29):
the day, it's just if yougot a good deal, you create a
short term strategy and know that atsome particular point in time, like when
Jeff says, in the next eighteento twenty four months, when the rates
do readjust in twenty twenty five,possibly they may fall below six percent,
but they may not. But ifyou have a great if you have a

(45:49):
great deal, what you need todo is you create a short term strategy
and a long term strategy. Aslong as we can see our way through
to get into a property that isgoing to show a b are an upside
for us, then we can createthat short term strategy and then hey,
listen, long term is we're goingto get into that little interest rate.
When they correct themselves, we'll fixit. Then right now, we should

(46:10):
just be concerned about a good businesstransaction and look at those terms. More
importantly, loans that don't require apre payment penalty, so that when we
have to flex and react and adaptthat we have the ability to without cost
stuff any money. Well, yeah, the pre payment penalty, now that
still exists on some loans, butnot on the loans that we're doing,
or at least you're doing with thenon QM self right correct on the non

(46:35):
qan thing. Jeff makes a greatpoint there, there are a couple of
different things that will that help usout in this loan. There's no prepayment
penalty, so you can you canrefinance at any particular time with no penalty.
Also, regardless of how high theloan to value is the LTV,
there's no mortgage insurance, so that'sa great benefit too if you can get

(46:58):
into a property that's above eighty LTV. There's no mortgage insurance for these loans,
and obviously they are the path ofleast resistance. They don't require traditional
structure and documentation. And what Imean by that for the people that know
and traditional mortgage is going to alwaysask you for two years w two's at
tax returns. It's going to alwaysask you for sixty days of bank statements

(47:22):
two months complete. And they're goingto always ask you for thirty days worth
of payment history, paycheck stubs orif you paid every two weeks, once
a week, they're going to askyou for that. That's the traditional financial
documentation that it's going to require toget you qualified for a loan on a
traditional loan. What I mean bytraditional is Jenny May Fanny Freddie, USDA.

(47:43):
All those loans are going to requireyou to have that traditional financial structure.
The non QM loans that Jeff isreferring to non qualified mortgages have alternative
documentation and they will require you tohave bank statements for twelve months twenty four
months that allow you to do aprofit and loss. Different loans like that
will allow you to get in withouttraditional structure, and they also have those

(48:07):
value added service we talked about noprepayment penalty as well as no mortgage insurance
for a higher LTV loan. Dsee. Do you find that lenders themselves
are tightening or loosening their guidelines oris it basically a split down the middle
whereas you'll have your non qumans justdescribed it and your more traditional agency or

(48:29):
thirty or fixed rate Fanny Freddy.Maybe they are a little bit tougher to
get. Some may be a littlebit tougher. And and if you're dealing
direct, and what I mean bydirect is if you're you know you're United
Security Financial is a Fanny Freddie JennySeller servicer right. A lot of times
when you're a direct seller or aservicer. That way, you don't have
the overlays that the other broker situationsor banks have, So you can be

(48:52):
a little bit more lenient and flexiblein regards to your underwriter manually underwriting a
situation and just making sure that youknow, obviously there's other contentions that we
can make to qualify the most abroker that is taking somewhere they may not
have that flexibility because there may besome overlays, if there's some credit issues,
some previous credit events that occurred,if the credit score is lower than

(49:14):
usual, there's certain things that willtighten up that lenders will not be leaning
upon and need a certain cycle scorein order for them to qualify that loan
and sell that loan. So whatI see is that the non QM is
already a little bit more flexible,will offer you probably a lower you know,
a lower tolerance for the documentation.But I will say there are some

(49:37):
traditional loans, SHA loans, VAloans that only require you to have a
FYCO score, sometimes only at fiveeighty or five point fifty. You can
still get those loans done. Sosometimes you trade off the benefit, and
that is and that is if youhave a low FYCLE score, but you

(49:58):
have traditional documentation, can provide thosedocuments that we discussed. That's still a
good loan for you because it alsois a lower down payment loan for individuals
who make good money who will paytheir monthly bills but just may not have
enough money to save enough for alarger down payments. These loans are super
beneficial and super helpful for individuals whocan qualify in the traditional box. But

(50:19):
if you have the other documentation andhave a little bit more down payments,
now a QM maybe the way togo. Excellent description on the way you
look at the same way I lookat the non KM world as well.
We've run out of time. Unfortunately, we'll have you back as we always
do. Your our favorite go tofor this kind of information, Charles.
Could you let people know how theymay be able to get in touch with

(50:40):
you terrific loan officer help them geta loan. Thank you, Jeff.
You can get a hold of meat area code seven two five five seven
seven eight seven sixty one at seventwo five five seven seven eight seven sixty
one, or you can email meat c Gistscombe at USF Wholesale dot net
at seed Gistscombe at Wholesales dott Ilove that USF Wholesale dot net excellent.

(51:05):
Okay, thanks man, thanks verymuch for coming on the show. Thanks
for having me always Jeff's pleasure.Thank you. That's Charles GISTs going from
USF. I'm Jeff Parton, yourvoice in the mortgage industry. We'll see
you next week. You're listening tothe Mortgage Boys with Jeff Barton. For
more on today's topic, or visitwww dot melible funding, dot net news,

(51:27):
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manage your final expenses when you passaway? Life? Insurance, annuity,
bank accounts, investment accounts have requiredeath ativity for sakes ten days based on
the national average, which means nomoney's immediately available. This causes stress and

(56:43):
arguments. Simple solution the beneficiary liquidityplan. Use money you already have no
need to come up with additional funds. The funds grote tax deferred and pass
tax free to your name beneficiaries.The death benefit is paid out in twenty
four to forty eight hours out atdesert heard me out a definite all I

(57:07):
said one eight hundred three zero sixfifty eighty six. Tune into The Farran
Dozier Show usually marks place in timethe soundtrack to Life. Sunday Nights at
eight PM are KCAA Radio playing thehottest hits and the coolest conversations. Sunday
Nights at a PM on the FrontDozier Show, within the ray of music,

(57:30):
talk, sports, community outreach,and veteran resources, the hits from
the sixties, seventies, eighties,nineties, and today's hits. The Faran
Dozier Show on kc AA Radio onall available streaming platforms, and on a
six point five Am and ten fiftyAm The Ferant Dozier Show on kc AA

(57:53):
Radio, NBC News Radio. I'mLisa Carton. President Biden is spending Sunday
at Camp David, where he's expectedto discuss the future of his re election

(58:15):
campaign with family members. The WhiteHouse says the trip was planned before Thursday's
debate. First Lady Jill Biden,the president's children, and grandchildren, were
scheduled to arrive late Saturday. Theprivate weekend retreat follows a nationally televised debate
that left many Democrats wondering about Biden'sability to beat former President Trump. In

(58:36):
November, Senator Raphael Warnock sys PresidentBiden should absolutely not drop out of the
presidential race. That's what the GeorgiaDemocrat told NBC's Meet the Press amid concerns
following Biden's shaky debate performance Thursday.Joe Biden is the nominee, and I'm
going to do everything I can tomake sure we elect Joe Biden and Kamala
Harris Come November, Warnock turned toattacking Donald Trump and his performance in the

(59:00):
debate, arguing that the former presidentspend time trash talking the whole country.
Hurricane Beryl is expected to slam theCaribbean as an extremely dangerous Category four hurricane.
The latest update from the National HurricaneCenter says Barrel is packing sustained winds
of one hundred and thirty miles anhour as it churns about three hundred and
fifty miles east southeast of Barbados.National Hurricane Center Director doctor Michael Brennan the

(59:25):
risk of hurricane force winds is generallyroughly equal in places like Barbados, Saint
Lucia, Saint Vincent down to Grenada, so everybody in those areas needs to
prepare as if you're going to experiencethe core of a major hurricane. The
storm is expected to continue to moveto the west northwest across the Caribbean next
week. The men's US Olympic gymnasticsteam is now set. Brody Malone,

(59:46):
fred Richard Asher, Honk Paul Judah, and Stephen Nadaro Sik are heading to
Paris. They were named to theteam on Saturday at the US Olympic Gymnastic
Trials. The US men's team islooking to win its first Olympic medal in
sixteen years. You're listening to thelatest on NBC News Radio NBC News on

(01:00:07):
KCAA Lowel The Don