KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton (Sat, 6 Jul, 2024)

KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton on Sat, 6 Jul, 2024

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
A hurricane again before it reaches theTexas coast late tomorrow into early Monday.
I'm Chris Caragio, NBC News Radio, NBC News on KCAA Lomolada sponsored by
Teamsters Local nineteen thirty two, protectingthe Future of Working Families Teamsters nineteen thirty
two dot org. You're listening toan encore presentation of this program KCAA The

(00:27):
Inland Talk Express to the Mortgage Voicewith Jeff Barton, your voice in the
mortgage industry. Each week on thisprogram, Jeff and his guest share their

(00:48):
expertise, personal antidotes, and thelatest industry news to keep you and the
loop now to provide you with insightsand help you navigate the consistently changing world
of real estate lending. Here isYou're a host with the Mortgage Voye Jeff
Barton. Welcome back, everybody.I'm Jeff bart and your Voice in the
mortgage Industry. Thanks very much fortuning into the show listening to us as
we come to each and every weekwith information that might help you decide whether

(01:12):
you want a mortgage, what costthe mortgage might be, maybe some real
estate questions that you might have.How in fact, I, as a
buyer, am going to pay fora real estate agent when I basically can't
seem to afford a mortgage? Yes, it's a big question, especially nowadays
when that lawsuit went through and then AR settled. I don't want to

(01:32):
get in too heavily on that,but there are some changes that you have
to take into account this time thisyear. If you go out there and
you're looking for a house. Obviously, prices are what they are. They're
high, right, I mean everybodyknows that, and we also know that
the mortgage indust rates are also high. Both of these things together make your
job difficult, which is why thinkingabout the commissions and the guy who are

(01:56):
gal who's going to come and helpyou as a real estate agent. Yeah,
you got to think about these thingsand figure out the best way to
get the most experienced person at theleast amount of price. It's kind of
like buying a house, right,you want the best house, the cheapest
house, and the best location,and usually that you know in this market
where in California I guess southern California. The median house costs about seven hundred

(02:20):
and sixty thousand dollars. That's alot of dope. I mean, if
you look across the country about otherthings that are available out there, whether
it's in South Carolina, whether it'sin South Dakota for that matter, or
New Mexico. I mean, thereare house prices there are three hundred and
fifty thousand dollars, but worth twicethat. Twice that plus Southern California is
a tough market to buy into.Most people that do live here for a

(02:43):
long time have owned their house fora generation, maybe two, and the
house gets passed down one person toanother. There's the lock in rate that
is an issue. Of course,everyone knows about that. I got a
three percent mortgage. Why am Igoing to sell and get a seven percent
mortgage? Anyway, I'm Jeff Barton. This is the Mortgage Voice. If
you want to see and hear thisshow as well as past shows, ten

(03:06):
years of past shows almost anyway,go to YouTube Jeff Barton the Mortgage Voice.
That's our YouTube channel, And asI said, we've been there for
hundreds and hundreds of shows. It'sa great place to get an education as
to what's been happening on a weeklybasis for all that time. We don't
always get it right, but Weusually correct what we said in previous shows
on shows that come up. Soif there's something that you need to know

(03:30):
more information about, you can alwayscall us, you can always email us,
and oh we also have a terrificwebsite that you can go to and
contact us that way. It's theMortgage Voice dot com. And when you
go there, you can see ourguests, past guests, guests that are
on the current show, and youcan contact them directly or you can email
them or call them or listen tothem. Again. I'm Jeff Barton.

(03:53):
This is the Mortgage Voice, andagain thanks for tuning in. Let's get
right to it's the little business ofthe show that we like to get to.
The The interest rates have been changing, fluctuating a little bit, but
they've hovered around seven percent for thelast three four weeks. Seven point zero
three percent is the thirty year fixrate, six point four to four is
the fifteen year, six point fourto eight is FHA, seven point two

(04:15):
five is the jumbo, and sixpoint four to nine is the VA.
The two years at four point seventhree six, and the ten years at
four point two three eight. Youknow that spread that I always talk about
and have said for you know,a number of years that this portends what's
gonna happen in the future, whetherit's going to be a recession or whether
we're gonna you know, get outof the recession. Well it comes up
again and again and again. It'slike the market doesn't seem to want to

(04:39):
let go of this old adage thatif we have an inversion in the yield
curve, the two years, isaid, is at four point seven,
the ten years at four point two, meaning that if you invest short term
you'll make more than if you investlong term. That's an inversion, right,
That means it's opposite of what itnormally is going to be. Well,
as a result of that, peoplehave it in the heads continuously.

(05:00):
Economists, people who are old school, anybody who has followed economics through the
last ten recessions will say that priorto that recession, you have this inversion,
the two year makes more than theten year. Well, we've been
at this inversion at this current timefor about oh gosh, it has to

(05:21):
be fifteen maybe twenty months, almosttwo years, let's say. So the
soft landing or the uh the comingoff of heavy inflation is not going to
send us into a recession. It'sgoing to be slow and steady until we

(05:41):
get back to two percent. Thisisn't from my I'm not saying that.
That's what Jerome Powell says, andJerome Pollack courses the head of the FED.
A lot of Fed governors agree withJerome Poull. Some say, hey,
you know what, maybe we gotto raise the interest rate here at
the FED, the interested we chargeour member banks. Maybe we have to
raise it rather than lower it.The economy has been doing very well over

(06:05):
the last time six sixteen months orso, and what we see going into
the presidential election is a pretty muchholding pattern on a lot of economic indices.
So we're probably not going to seethe Fed do anything until after the
election. We're probably not going tosee the GDP fluctuate much more than it

(06:25):
has been over the last two quarters. You'll end up and I have a
GDP outlook here, and I'll justget right to that right away. Let's
see. So the GDP tracking,now we do this every month or so
and we go to two or threedifferent sources to find out what they think
the second quarter GDP is going tobe okay. So the GDP tracking Bank
of America says it's one point eightpercent, Goldman says it's one point nine

(06:47):
percent, and the Atlanta Fed,which is always the most optimistic, is
at three percent. So somewhere betweenone point seventy five and two point seventy
five is where the GDP is goingto land. And that means, as
I was saying, economies pretty good, right, everybody is looking at where
we are and what we're doing.Inflation is drifting down. We're gonna have
some revised numbers probably in before weget the new numbers out for June.

(07:13):
And let's see what is it Junetwenty fifth, June twenty sixth, today,
June twenty fifth. I think keepyour job, and is this a
good time to buy a house?All of these questions are answered to my
opinion in the affirmative. Yeah,yeah, yeah, and yeah. I
think it's a great time to buya house if you can find one.
Now. Inventory, the housing inventoryis up six point three percent year over
year, and that's a good thing. The actual numbers for the housing is

(07:40):
let's see it. I get thedrum roll here in a second. Let's
see so, Yes, the inventoryis up two point two percent week over
a week and thirty seven point sevenpercent year over year. Now, we
all know that during the pandemic,housing inventory went to zip. As I
said, we had rates fall downto two three percent, four percent,

(08:03):
and seventy eighty percent of the loansout there currently are under five percent.
So you're not going to get alot of turnover because people want to refire
or take money out or get abetter interest rate, or that it's a
wash and they need the money becauseof whatever reason they need the money,
They want to invest in something,they need somebody to send to college,
maybe some medical reasons, all ofthese things being what they are, most
people are sitting on what they haveas a mortgage. So when we see

(08:28):
inventory increase, that's a good thingbecause there's only two ways that people are
going to be affording a mortgage today, at least typically a mortgage today.
Either you're going to have the interestrates fall or you're going to have the
home prices fall. And the onlyway you're going to have a home prices
fall is if you've got more houseson the market. So we've seen some
softening in certain markets around the country. Talked about it a couple of weeks

(08:48):
ago when we had the show.We see here in southern California, however,
an increase but not a decrease,meaning that we'll see more at inventory,
but we haven't yet to see theover into lower costs for you to
buy that house. Do I thinkit's coming, Yeah, I guess so.
I mean, it's it's a guessfrom me, But I'm not the

(09:09):
only one saying this. This isthe National Association of Realtors, California Association
of Realtors are talking about lower realestate prices and as a result of rising
inventories. Now, the rising inventories, it's it's always a you know,
why are they rising, Well,it's because we're not getting enough buyers into
the market buying property at their currentvalues. So therefore property is gonna sit

(09:31):
longer. And as the properties sitlonger, you know what happens with prices,
Prices usually come down. We're notthere yet. We may see some
of that towards the end of thesummer. But of course, if you've
got to kids, you gotta goto school, your new job, you
gotta move, whatever that is,you probably already made your decision. You're
probably already making your decision right now. It's the end of June. Summer
just started. We're about ready togo into July August. Those are the

(09:52):
months that deals get closed. Imean, if you're in a situation right
now where you've got to move.The one good thing is that we see
some softening in rents. So ifyou have to get out there and look
at properties for rentals, rentals arenot as high as they were and they're
not as skyrocketing as they were.The biggest component in inflation, as everyone
knows, is the housing portion ofit, what they call the what do

(10:18):
they call that house unhoused the housesection of it. So if we're looking
at five to six percent rise inreal estate rental prices over the past year,
that's one of the bigger components,probably forty to fifty percent of the
inflation index. Anyway, I'm JeffPartner Voice in the mortgage Industry. Thanks
for tuning in. We'll be rightback. You're listening to the Mortgage Voice

(10:41):
with Jeff Barton. We'll be rightback with more and just a moment.
For questions or comments, send emailsto info at melaguppundings dot net. Now
back to the Mortgage Boys with yourhost, Jeff Barton. Welcome back everybody.
I'm Jeff partner your voice in themortgage industry. Thanks very much for

(11:01):
tuning in listening to us on aweekly basis. We're at CASEAA. The
great folks over there, Fred andMark and everybody else is on the board
and doing all the technical aspects.I have a great signal. It's on
AM and FM and we come toon a weekly basis and have been doing
so on Saturday and Sunday for closeto a decade. So thanks very much

(11:22):
for your patronage for listening to us. And again I am Jeff Barton.
This is the Mortgage Voice. Weare also on a number of different podcasts
and these podcasts are easily available allthe shows. We have plenty of archives,
Darrell, they have a list ofthat for us, I sure do.
Jeffrey Chapple podcast, Google Podcasts,Spotify, Speaker, Stitcher, iHeartMedia,
Odyssey, YouTube, podclips, dotIo and the Mortgage Voice dot com

(11:45):
excellent. Okay, the Mortgage Voicedot Com, as I said, is
our uh is our e What amI saying? It's ours our web address.
It's our website and if you gothere you can see pass and present
shows as well. As some ofthe guests have been on the show for
many times and some of you mayhave not known about or how to get
in touch with them. Anyway youcan do that now. Also, pod
clipsout iow great central place for allyour podcasting needs if you in fact need

(12:09):
a place to go where you don'thave to search several different websites. As
we just read off, pod clipsthought io is a great place where you
can find all your podcasting needs.Go there. I'm Jeff Martin. This
is the Mortgage Voice. Once again. We have many different things in the
news. It's kind of the newsthe use section. I'll just go through
a little bit of it. Unemploymentticked up to four percent. As we
said last month. One of thethings about the economy, if we're going

(12:33):
to see inflation come down, wehave to see a bit of a hike
in unemployment. And that's why wewent from three point five percent to four
percent because employment rates as they arenot employing enough people. Now, some
people say this is a bellweather forgauging exactly where we are in the inflation

(12:56):
fight. I think there are someI was talking to Layert, wasn't talking.
I was listening to Larry Summers.He used to be the Treasury secretary.
I think it was under Clinton,was it under Bush? Probably under
Bush. Right, he's a Republicanguy anyway. So Larry Summers a smart
guy. And he's really talking aboutwhy the inflation chase. I e.
Are we going to see the inflationrate come down a lot quicker than it

(13:20):
was? He was saying, No, probably not. He's saying the downtich
last month in inflation had to domore with a cyclical and monthly not long
term, and the long term strategyis probably higher for longer. On rates,
he's saying, let's not get intoa situation where we lower rates and
then have to raise the rates again. And so he's much more of a
conservative guy when it comes to lookat that. So if he's saying,

(13:43):
Okay, I'm going to look atthe unemployment at four percent, is that
a good thing? Well, ifyou're an employee or somebody looking for a
job, maybe it isn't. Butwe still have more jobs than we have
people looking for jobs. So it'sjust a matter of fit. If your
job that you're looking for is inthat group that is available, then you're
you're great. We also see alot of participation in the labor force.

(14:03):
It's summertime, the's a lot ofpart time jobs, so because there's more
people participating, that's another reason whythe unemployment rate went up. Yeah,
interesting stuff as well. Okay,so in in election year, we always
talk about things that matter. Now, you and I. I don't know.
I don't get that involved in politics. Some things make me mad.

(14:26):
I can't go on X I can'tgo on Facebook. I can't go on
even LinkedIn, which I used tolove all these sites because it was just
random things you can find from differentpeople opinions. But now it's been taken
over by a whole wave of yougotta do this, you gotta do that,
this is the worst thing that's evergonna happen, the world's gonna end.
Now. It just really bothers me. So I went looking for some

(14:48):
positive signs, which is what Ilike to do of what's going on in
the economy now, like football,like soccer, like basketball. I'm a
Celtics fan. Celtics won the championship. Heyay from me? Right? Why
do I feel good? I don'tknow. I have nothing to do with
that team other than I'm a fan. But it makes you feel good.
So some of the things that makeyou feel good about the US economy.

(15:09):
And I wrote down several of thesefacts. And I don't know if it'll
make you feel good enough to goout and buy a house, but it
might. Okay, four point threepercent of the world population lives in the
United States. Okay, four percent, let's say four percent. Twenty six
percent of the global GDP is inthe United States. So you look at
that number and you go wow.So the rest of the world, which

(15:31):
is ninety six percent of the population, only has seventy five percent of the
GDP, So that's a good thing. It just talks about how the US
economy dwarfs every economy in the world, almost to the point where it's not
a comparison at all. Eighty fivethousand dollars a year is the per capita

(15:52):
income in the US. Eighty fivethousand dollars a year, just as an
example, in India, it's twentyfive hundred dollars a year. In China
it's eleven thousand dollars a year.So you make these comparisons, and we
always do about the competition, aboutwho is the best, and about where
our money is going, and abouthow US products aren't competitive. Well,
you look at what the numbers are. You can say, wow, these

(16:15):
numbers are astounding. And one ofthe reasons they're astounding is because of the
character and the nature of who weare and what we do here in the
US in terms of innovation, interms of production, all the things that
we need in order to stay competitive. One of the articles I was reading
talked about the bust and boom cycle. Now we're you know, that's a

(16:38):
very famous fifties, sixties, seventies, eighties where one industry will just dominate
for a while and then all ofa sudden they're gone. Well, since
two thousand, the SMP five hundred, half the companies in the SMP five
hundred don't exist anymore. That's onlyin twenty four years. So the idea

(17:00):
that we keep recycling, or wekeep innovating, we keep branding, bringing
up and inventing new things and newways to be able to dominate in certain
ways. It's the character of thecountry. And I think, whoever wins
this ridiculous bandwagon of a circus electionthat we've got going, it's still going

(17:21):
to continue that way because it's you, it's me. I went from a
guy who was a twenty five thirtyyear person in the mortgage industry. I
sold my company, I don't know, nine months ago, ten months ago.
I'm now in a completely different fieldand as successful as I was now.
I think that kind of spirit isk is the kind of spirit that

(17:42):
we need to more positively look at, rather than this person's taken from me,
so we have to do something badto them. That's just the personal
opinion. I think there's opportunity outthere for now. I'm lucky, right,
I've got a lot of things goingfor me, and most prominently its
age, experience and money in thebank. All these things are pretty good

(18:04):
for anybody who's out there who hasthe same. But if you're young,
if you're new, if you're lookingfor a house, housing is the best
way to get into the game.Ninety percent of US millionaires did so through
real estate. Okay, let's justmove on. Housing is up six point
three percent year over years. Isaid, thirty seven percent more housing than

(18:26):
there was last year. The Fedtarget rate next year. Okay, So
Janet Yellen. Everybody knows Janet Yellen, and she's the Treasury Secretary for Biden
and the Biden administration. She usedto be the head of the FED.
Right, so there's this long chainof very accomplished people who have been at
the FED. Whether it's Alan greenspandand it's Ben Bernaki, or whether it's

(18:48):
the current guy, Jerome Powell.Well, Janet Yellen wedged in there as
well. She says that we willhit the inflation target of two percent into
tenty twenty five. That's good news. All of these things are really good
news. Consumer confidence one hundred pointfour. It's down a little bit since
last month. Let's see US oileighty one dollars a barrel. That's West

(19:14):
Texas Intermediate. Now oil this summer, it's always a thing here in California.
We see prices go up, andwe wonder why we not only pump
oil, we refine oil, butmost of the oil here in the US
in California is shipped out of state. We don't consume our local oil.
I don't know why, but thatjust seems to be the way the markets
run. Auto sales so slow secondhalf of the twenty twenty four and that's

(19:41):
probably due to the fact that onewe have a great deal of inflation still
in certain areas, of the economy, and fuel is one of them,
housing is another one, and newcars there is another one fifteen point seven
million units this year, it'll beup one point three percent from twenty twenty
three. And rates raise. That'swhat FED Bowman says. He's one of

(20:06):
the FED governors, and he saysthat the rate for which we charge member
banks, the FED may raise ratein order to keep inflation fight going.
I don't think it's a great idea, just because I think not only do
equities in the stock market get killed, but anybody who's got a four to
h one k or any other kindof long term retirement, that's not a
good thing. I'm Jeff Bartn,your voice in the mortgage industry. We

(20:30):
got a big show for you,and I'll be right back. You're listening
to the Mortgage Boys with Jeff Barton. We'll be right back with more and
just a moment for questions or comments, send emails to info at Malibu Fundings
dot net. Now back to theMortgage Boys with your host, Jeff Barton.
Welcome back, everybody. I'm JeffBarton, your voice in the mortgage

(20:52):
industry. Thanks very much for tuninginto the show for listening to us on
a weekly basis as we bring toyou the best and most current information about
what loan products are out there,as well as an update on real estate,
some of the goings on in theeconomy. Certainly anything that'll get your
eyes off the ball of buying inthis silly season, there's a ton of
them, but refocusing looking at what'savailable out there and taking advantage of every

(21:18):
situation. As I said, inventoriesup and we're really happy about that,
but we need to see prices comedown, and we need to see a
little bit more steady look at longterm interest rates. But I'm not the
person to do that. As Ialways say, I bring the best people
on the show, and Tomas Trahiois no exception, been on the show
many time from Jet Mortgage. Hejoins us now to help answer these questions.

(21:41):
Tomas, how are you. I'mdoing great, Jeff, how are
you today? I'm okay. Aswe were talking off air, I'm hot.
I don't know about you, butit's hot. It is, you
know, it's funny. It happensevery year. It's freezing in California.
California is one of those funny places, right Sometimes in the summer. If
you're in the shade, you're cool. And it could be one hundred and

(22:02):
two out. It's just a weirdplace that way. But where do you
see where we are? And uh, let's say I'm a first time home
buyer and I come to you andI say, look, I've got,
you know, one hundred thousand bucks. I want to buy a house.
What kind of loan product? Myyou know, my FICO score is not

(22:22):
that great. What do you suggestto people when they come to you like
that. I'm sure there's plenty ofthem. There's plenty of them. And
I was the first thing I'd alwaystell them is, you know, cause
the first thing I hear is,oh the rate, the rate, the
rate, the rate, Oh mygod, the rate. And I tell
everybody, look, if you waitfor the rates to go down, you're
never going to get a house becauseas soon as those rates go down,

(22:45):
those prices are going to shoot,right. I mean people back in the
seventies. I remember my father,he was, he was doing the same
thing. Oh the rate, therate. I mean back then it was
twenty percent, exactly twenty percent fivepoint and you know that's what you paid.
But okay, the houses were lower, but so was income. Right,
So that's right. And one dayhe was like, I said,

(23:07):
well you're gonna buy it. Pop, You're gonna buy it. He said,
well, you know, son,I'm only gonna get more money on
this thing. The thing's gonna goopen value one day the prices of the
rates might come down. Everyone getcheaper. And he was right. Now,
that is that one hundred thousand dollars, three thousand square foot house.
It's worth a twenty dollars. Hebought it for one hundred and fifty thousand.

(23:27):
So I tell everybody, look,if you're ready to do something,
then you got to do it.You gotta do it now because you can
always renegotiate the rate. You're nevergoing to renegotiate that price. Yeah,
I agree. I one hundred percentagree. And with rents being what they
are, I mean, if youlook at your rental and you could make
that payment to a mortgage, wouldn'tit be better to do that with a

(23:48):
mortgage? You don if you hadto pay a few more bucks one hundred
percent. Actually, my mortgage peoplethat are around me pay more in rent
for the same house or smaller thanI doing a mortgage payment. It's ridiculous.
And so going back to your question, why do I tell somebody I
want to get going? I said, yeah, let's get going, let's
get together. Let's get the mosta you can afford, in the best

(24:11):
neighborhoods you can afford, because whenthat thing goes up, you're gonna start
making money. And this thing isgoing to pay for itself in a couple
of years. Yeah, I agreewith you. And as you said,
rates being what they are, youknow, they've really remained for the past
ninety days pretty close to what theyare today. I mean, I don't
think they're bad. I mean,but then again, I came from a
place where it was twenty percent,and you know, no, that's true.

(24:32):
But I mean, let's say yougot a thirty year fix it seven
percent or they're about six and ahalf to seven percent. That's still not
so bad. Oh, that's notbad at all. We were selling that
back in two thousand and five,right right when people was all the hot
market, right was that was goingrate, I mean a couple of years
ago, and we've never seen aone percent rate of two percent of three
percent. I mean, that wasgreat if you got in, But I

(24:55):
mean it's not realistic. I don'tthink it'll ever happen again. But you
know, who am I who?Do I know? What? Do I
know? Interesting? You say that, So these mortgages, which are about
eighty percent of people who have amortgage under five percent, do you think
this wash through rate is going toincrease the further away we get from COVID,

(25:15):
meaning that people will finally say,hey, you know what, I
need the equity in my property,or I got to sell, or you
know, because eighty percent of thehouses out there with a mortgage under five
percent, nobody's going to go anywhere. I just know the way people are.
They just things happen. They needmoney, or they sell or you
know, I just don't know whenthat's gonna happen. And I think everybody's

(25:36):
waiting around for that to happen.I think you're one hundred percent right.
I mean, I've already seen ithappen. It's already happening. Yeah,
it's been happening. People are gettingdivorced, people are passing away. They
got to do something. So yeah, they're getting they're selling the house,
they're they're refinancing the house. Theygot to buy their they got paid tuition.
They don't have enough money to killup short. They got to refight
the house, get some money out. But here's a good intro. That's

(25:57):
why we do seconds. We're doingstawn loan seconds. Well, you don't
have to touch your first take theseconds, pull the money you need.
I'm moving to six hundred thousand ona second. We'll do a P and
L only loan on a second,which is pretty damn good. A P
and L only loan for a second. Explain, tell people what the P
and L is. What are youtalking about, because a lot of people

(26:18):
who have equity in their house saythey don't know from second versus P and
L versus full doc, they don'tknow. Sure, sure, I get
that. So if you are aself employed borrower, or if you have
a side gig, if you havea side business, if you sell t
shirts that swap me, you canuse that income. You may not report
at all, And that's fine.I'm not asking you to. I'm not
asking for proof. I'm not askingfor a forty five or six. I'm

(26:41):
not asking for tax transcripts. Giveme a P and L from your local
neighborhood. Tax prepare doesn't have tobe a CPA. He'll say, hey,
Mike, my client Roy Junior herehe paid. He makes one hundred
thousand. Yeah, and it onlyhe only weighs twenty percent of that to
keep the business going. And he'sbeen doing it for two years. And

(27:04):
that's all I need. And you'regetting a loan. Okay, that sounds
good. And you set up tosix hundred and fifty thousand dollars. What's
the fycle score they need? Thatwant to be a sixty sixty okay,
so that you're not trying to killpeople on the Fyco score either, six
sixties. You know, I wouldsay most people have at least that,
if not better. Yeah, it'snot that bad. I mean, you

(27:25):
know, it's what's the better theFycle obviously the better of the rates.
Absolutely, Okay, So this secondhow popular is it? It's pretty popular
right now. It's a really hotproduct. It's like, well, like
you were saying, nobody's going totouch the rate under five percent, it
ain't happen. I mean, oneof my best friends has a one percent
rate and he needs money, sowe did we did a second for him
because there was no way he wasgoing to touch a one percent rate.

(27:47):
No, not on your principle,Why would you? It's silly. Yeah,
I mean he pays double, buthe pays double the payments which which
turned out to be what he usedto pay prior to refin, and he'll
have his house paid off in fifteenyears and it's a thirty year loan.
How do you go wrong? Itotally agree. Assumable mortgages. Do you

(28:10):
think any way that we'll see thosecome back into the marketplace because of the
rates being what they are for theselow interest rate loans that people have.
Do you think it'll be any waythat they'll be able to assume let loan
if they sell it to somebody else, or the new bar will be able
to assume it. I would loveto say yeah, because that used to
be a big thing back in theeighties. Yeah, it was huge,

(28:30):
right right. Everybody was assuming,But then lenders starts saying, wait a
minut I'm not getting paid out.No, I don't want to do this.
I don't want to do that.Even kal Haff, which used to
be a sumable, did not assumingthem anymore. So I don't see that
coming back anytime soon. So younever know, Yeah, you never know?
Well, you know, you haveyour ears to the ground and you've
been in the business a long timejust trying to find solutions to the housing

(28:53):
crisis. Do you think it's prettymuch hands off? The government itself is
not going to do anything unless it'sa down payment assistant or some other type
of program like that. They're justgoing to leave it the way it is
and see what happens. You know, the whole the whole thing is just
it's different. It's totally different.Before in an election year, you knew
the rakes were going to come downhere, you knew the economy was going

(29:15):
to be booming, and you knewyou were going to have a great year.
But it hasn't happened this year,which is shocking to me. It's
shocking to everybody because we thought wewere going to have a bunch of rate
drops, but yep, we did. We never we never had any of
them. And now they're talking maybeSeptember. But I don't think so,
not right before the election, Idon't think so. I think they're going
to be a hands off on thisthing. It's sort of a quietly not

(29:38):
doing anything. As I was sayingearlier in the show, I think after
the election, you might see somemovement, right. It really depends on
what inflation does. But I youknow what, uh, in listening to
some of the economists talking about,hey, why are we going it for
two percent? Why don't we gofor two and a half percent? Is
the is the bottom line figure thatwe need for inflation? I mean before
COVID they were talking they wanted toget it back up to three percent,

(30:00):
and now it's two percent. Again, it's just very confusing as to why
that's the magic number. Honestly,I don't even think that they know.
Thank everybody's guessing. Who knows thatBefore if the bond went up, you
knew the rate was going to go, and if the bond went down,
you knew the rate was gonna Imean we all knew, we all had
indicators, and we knew we needa float. It's not like that anymore.
I mean, the bond can goup and now the rate goes up,

(30:21):
and yeah, it makes makes itmakes no sense. Tomas, thanks
for coming on listen. Could youshout out a way by which people can
get in touch with you about thisgreat second loan you have absolutely well,
my name is Tim Ostra. Hellyou can always get me on my cell
phone at three two three two twoeight five one eight one, or you
can always email me and I amthe Big Bad Loan Daddy at gmail dot

(30:45):
com. Excellent, Thank you Thomas, very very much. Appreciate you coming
on as always. Absolutely thank you, Jeff, thank you very much.
That's Tomas Hero from Jet Mortgage.I'm Jeff Hart and your voice in the
mortgage industry. We'll be right back. You're listening to the Mortgage Boys with
Jeff Barton. We'll be right backwith more and just a moment. For
questions or comments, send emails toinfo at Malibu Fundings dot net. Now

(31:10):
back to the Mortgage Boys with yourhost, Jeff Barton. Welcome back,
everybody. I'm Jeff Bartin, yourvoice in the mortgage industry. Thanks very
much for tuning into the show listeningto us. Each and every week.
We bring to you information, goodinformation. Some of it's not great information,
but I didn't originate it. Itcomes from what's happening in the economy,
what's happening in real estate mortgages rates. Actually, the rates aren't as

(31:33):
bad as people say. All youhave to do is look back several years
and say, hey, you know, six and a half seven percent not
bad. Really, what is badis limitations on the availability of property.
The cost of some cities is wayway way out of range. I read
an article today said that five ofthe top cities that would probably see a

(31:53):
fall in real estate prices over thenext five years. Now, of course
this is what if, what if? But Los Angeles was number one.
One of the cities that didn't comeup was Las Vegas, Nevada. And
one of my friends and person thathas come on the show many times,
Jennifer Conrad, who works over atMalibu Funding, is graciously aquiesked to come

(32:15):
on the show once again. Jennifer, how are you. I'm doing well
deal. Thank you so much forhaving me back. Thank you, and
thank you very much for coming onthe show. Okay, so with that
long winded intro, tell us what'shappening in Las Vegas. We haven't had
an interview with someone out there.We used to have a station that we
were affiliated with out there. Buttell us about the Las Vegas market and

(32:37):
what kind of loans you're doing forcustomers who are needing someone to give them
loan. It does seem like alot more people are interested in purchasing right
now. I'm doing a lot ofinvestment purchases, so it almost seems like
a lot of people are maybe tryingto purchase to either have as like an
Airbnb or condotel something. You know, it's going to be a short term

(32:59):
run, says. There are somany people who want to visit, you
know, I spend time there.I'm doing a few second homes, but
the bulk of it is pretty muchcondos. And if you look around Las
Vegas, it looks like there areso many condo units that are going up.
You know, they're catering to thefact that that seems to be the
interest that people are are kind ofsteering towards. Do you see now in

(33:22):
certain states like California with the wildfiresand down in Florida with obviously the weather
problems they have down there with hurricanesand uh that kind of thing affecting homeless
insurance? Is there such an issueout there in Vegas in terms of the
heat or any other natural thing thatmight make price of either your insurance or
the condo itself go up because ofthe heating and the air conditioning. I

(33:45):
can't say that I've experienced that.You know, I've spoken with people and
then I've gotten quotes myself. Iguess a lot of them might have to
do with if you're dealing with certaincertain companies that have a lot of carriers
in the area. I mean,relatively speaking, when you compare it to
Florida, you know, where Isaw one that was seven thousand dollars last

(34:06):
month, you know, or Californiawhere I've seen one for five thousand.
Yes, it's definitely not that.But then again too, when I'm focusing
on people purchasing condos and we havethe master policy that's covered by the association,
and so barwers are basically just gettingcoverage, you know, for the
interior walls and their own personal items. So that's all, you know,

(34:27):
a fraction of the cost. Okay, very good. No, I know,
insurance in those areas that I mentionedis making the cost of the condominium
really reflect the fact that getting owner'sinsurance or the HOA insurance that then you
get assessed for has been a realproblem. But I'm glad out in Vegas
it hasn't been. No, Ihaven't experienced that so far. Hopefully the
stay like that. No exactly,Okay, tell us some condo loans,

(34:52):
what are they selling for and whatkind of terms are you getting? Right
now? I'm seeing things you knowbetween like two a three ten single family,
you know, in certain areas likeroads, ranch may go more like
you know, five five, twentyfive somewhere in there. And what I
do notice is that the HA feesare considerably less than when you consider California.

(35:16):
So a lot of places in Californiayou're looking at five hundred to start,
you know, on assessments, andyou can find places in Las Vegas,
you know, two twenty five,two fifty somewhere in there, nice
places. So yeah, I thinka lot of people are interested in trying
to make a transition to that area. How do you like the actual living

(35:40):
in there on a day to daybasis? I love it? Okay,
okay, no, I mean,hey, I'm glad you do. I
happen to like Vegas a lot.I don't know if i'd live there just
because I can't take the heat.But air conditioning being what it is,
it's pretty good still, you know. Well, I do feel like that
maybe there's more of a focus tomake sure that you have central air and

(36:02):
that it works well there. Maybemore so than in California it does feel
like it's extreme heat. But Iguess a lot of that too is you
know, just kind of planning yourday to make sure you know you're not
out in it, but then areable to get out and enjoy either early
or later in the day. SoI guess you know, anywhere you live
has you know, is positives andit's drawbacks, and it's just a matter

(36:24):
of, you know, how weapproach it. So have you seen a
difference between pre pandemic and now postpandemic and the way buyers approach loans themselves?
Is it the same issues and problemsthat you might have trying to ask
a buyer for certain documentation or hasthere been an education or a lack of
an education in terms of the buyeryou're seeing today? Are just trying to

(36:46):
get a feel as to I guessyou've been in the business a long time,
and not only as an originator,but you also do a lot of
processing underwriting for different lenders. Haveyou seen a difference in the profile of
the borrower then? Verse it doesfeel like there are more people needing a
down payment assistance program. I thinkthere have been some people who did not

(37:09):
realize that maybe none of us reallyknew, you know, with some of
the lenders putting things into place likeyou know, you could delay making a
payment, you know, for ayear, and then being in situations now
where some lenders are actually saying thatthat is an issue with you being able
to refinance. As far as likepurchases, there seems to be a drive

(37:30):
of you know, I remember youmight see one or two lenders that offered
a down payment assistance program, andnow it feels like every lender has that,
you know. But it also feelslike a lot more condo projects are
not FAHA approved. Obviously, ifyou are buying a single family home,
you know, then you can usethose programs, and it feels like the
buyers are more aware of the factthat they have down payment options, right,

(37:52):
and so they want to utilize those. They come in kind of letting
you know that that's you know,what they want to want to be able
to use. Are you the intoany problems with realtors being that they had
that lawsuit and now it looks likethe buyer's agent can't necessarily use the seller's
commission in order to get paid.Are buyers looking for experienced people to help

(38:14):
them, like, for instance,you're on the mortgage side, are they
asking you real estate questions now morethan they used to? I can just
say that I ran into an agentthat was in the Midwest, and I
really had to educate her on everyaspect, you know, making sure the
condo project was that f YOUTA approved, explaining what certain terms were regarding ernest

(38:37):
money, everything, until I hadthe question, you know, like,
you know, how long have youbeen doing this? But in regards to
like, you know, questions regardingtheir commissions or how they're affected. No,
I'm not experienced that, so I'massuming that something that sort of gets
worked out before it actually gets tome. Yeah. Well, I was
just wondering if if a lot ofthe burden of as you were just explaining

(38:59):
education of the the agent or justletting them know exactly how things work in
certain areas used to be when they, you know, were paid a little
bit more, you'd get more experiencedagents. But now those agents are no
longer doing that kind of work becauseyou don't get paid automatically. You'd just
be a listing agent, that's it. Yeah, Well, I mean I
think it's always been a situation wherewe were sharing information. But I can't

(39:22):
say that, you know, I'vehad, like I said, that,
one particular experience. But I dofind that there are loan officers if I
am processing for them, there areloan officers who probably could stand to,
you know, brush up on someeducation, because there's a lot of things
that they don't seem to know.And I don't know if maybe it's because
you know, on the processing side, you're sort of in it all day,

(39:42):
every day, and so you're exposedto more things to understand how things
are changing. But yeah, soI guess you know, being on this
and sometimes you kind of educating loanofficers and dealing with real estate agents experience
or not, and just kind ofsharing information and bring them up to speed.
Yeah, no, I see that. And obviously you know, so
as you fight to close loans thatyou've had in the pipeline for a long

(40:04):
time or they're done very quickly.Are you seeing any difference in the tightening
or lessening of lender guidelines over thepast six months or so. I don't
think it's any more relaxed. Okay, I would say that I do think
that you know, when you're lookingat things like, you know, barbers
who have high credit scores, whoare you know, putting down twenty twenty

(40:27):
five percent? We're getting more,at least I am getting more property inspection
waivers even on purchases. And itused to be a time when, you
know, it would seldom that youwould get something like that on a purchase.
And I know I've had three,you know, just last week alone.
Wow. So I think that hasa lot to do with the profile
of the bar wer. But thenyou have other people maybe who have a

(40:50):
few more credit challenges, putting alittle less money down, and it does
feel like, you know, thosefiles are scrutinized a little bit more.
Oh, excellent, Listen, we'vecome to the end of it. Could
you do me a and let peopleknow how they can get in touch with
you a terrific loan officer in manystates that you can do your lending.
You're currently doing some in Las Vegastoday, but yeah, shout out your

(41:10):
number, let people know how theyget in touch with it. Thank you
so much, my number seven seventhree five nine three six eight three one
again seven seven three five nine threesix eight three one. Jennifer, thank
you so much for coming On onceagain saving the day doing well on the
show. I appreciate it very much. Thanks Jeff, thank you very much.

(41:31):
That's Jennifer Conrad for Malibu Funding.I'm Jeff Bartn, your voice in
the mortgage industry. We'll be rightback. You're listening to the Mortgage Voice
with Jeff Barton. We'll be rightback with more and just a moment for
questions or comments, send emails toinfo at melibufundings dot net. Now back
to the Mortgage Boys with your host, Jeff Barton. Welcome back, everybody.

(41:54):
I'm Jeff Bartn, your voice inthe mortgage industry. Thanks very much
for tuning in to the show,for listening to us on a week basis,
bringing to you information that you canuse right now today. You can
size us up, kind of fitthis into what your box is in terms
of borrowing and going out there andbuying a home. Although prices are high,
yes they are high, and therates aren't the most friendly, but

(42:15):
they're not the worst either. Anybodythat's older than five years old will tell
you six, seven, ten yearsago, even in two thousand, early
two thousand, prices were high.So this is a great opportunity for you
to get out there. One ofthe best people I know who helps us
always discern that from what other noisesthere is in the marketplace is Charles Giscom.

(42:35):
He's from USF and he joins us. Now, Charles, how are
you. I'm doing great, Jeff, thanks for having me again. Thank
you too, Thanks very much forcoming on the show. So what's happening
in your neck of the woods.Tell us a little bit about some of
the borrows you're dealing with and someof the challenges that may be a little
unusual this time of year. It'ssummer, it's hot, people get a
little squarely, and you know,there isn't that much inventory. All of

(43:00):
those things are true, Jeff,everything, But what we're dealing with this
we see a little bit adjustment ofthe interest rate. You know, I
think a thirty years six right now, and the average is about seven.
Refinanced mortgage might be a little bitlower, maybe in the high six or
six point ninety five, six pointninety six, and you know the jumbos

(43:21):
are about seven and a half,seven point three, seven five to seven
and a half and above. Soat the end of the day, interest
rates aren't great, they're better thanthey were. But they're just lingering around,
you know where we've been for thelast couple of weeks. What I
do know is that because of theinventory, it's not because of the rates.
It's because of the inventory. Itis people are rate conscious. But

(43:44):
you know what I like to tellthem, and what we always talk about
here is there's different value added servicesthat we can add to your loan to
all set the interest rate. Atthe end of the day. If you
are not looking to keep your homefor thirty years, which I don't know
who else books at that anymore,that is, let's do an ARM adjustable
rate mortgage or will get you alower interest rate. Or let's do a

(44:08):
longer emortization period instead of thirty years, let's go to forty years. Both
of those strategies allow you to getlower interest rates mean lower payments as far
as the ARM is concerned. Andfor the forty year loan, it allows
you a longer period of time.You're adding one hundred and twenty months to
are already three hundred and sixty monthloan term, which allows the payments to

(44:31):
be stressed out over a longer periodof time, which obviously makes your monthly
checked stroke lower. That's what we'vebeen using lately to offset the higher interest
rates that people have been so spoiledbut not used to a seeing, because
one thing I tell people is thelower interest rates may never come back,

(44:52):
but the interest rates will adjust themselvesand get lower. Well, I think
what you know, most people don'trealize is that we're two years a wave
from those low interest rates. Itreally hasn't been that low for like I
say, twenty four eighteen to twentyfour months. And as we get further
and further away from that time period, people get used to the normal and
say, yeah, yeah, wecan afford it, or we can't afford

(45:12):
it. I just think the houseprices are so high. I was just
talking to another guest on the showtalking about stuff out in Las Vegas.
Now the price is compared to youknow, hot markets like Los Angeles,
you know obviously are much much cheaper. How are the house prices in some
of the areas where you're looking atdoing loans or doing loans currently, Well,
you know what the house prices arerelative, I mean they are the

(45:36):
value is kept like in Charlotte andGeorgia, right, places are going to
keep their value there's going to bea lot of people transaction. And quite
frankly, when I'm talking to theseindividuals over here, Jeff, I pretty
much just tell them, listen,mortgage rate's been bold to and it remain
high, and according to you know, all the different Freddy Max and Fanny
Mays, right, they're going tohover around six point eight percent for this

(46:00):
week. Then we should not expectthem to decrease significantly anytime soon. Like
Jeff said, at the end ofthe day, it's just if you got
a good deal, you create ashort term strategy and know that at some
particular point in time, like whenJeff says, in the next eighteen to
twenty four months, when the ratesdo readjust in twenty twenty five, possibly

(46:22):
they may fall below six percent,but they may not. But if you
have a great if you have agreat deal, what you need to do
is you create a short term strategyand a long term strategy. As long
as we can see our way throughto get into a property that is going
to show a better an upside forus, then we can create that short
term strategy and then hey, listen, long term is we're going to get

(46:44):
into that little interest rate when theycorrect themselves, we'll fix it then.
Right now, we should just beconcerned about a good business transaction and look
at those terms. More importantly,loans that don't require a pre payment penalty,
so that when we have to flexand react and adapt that we have
the ability to without cost us anymoney. Well, yeah, the pre

(47:04):
payment penalty, now that still existson some loans, but not on the
loans that we're doing, or atleast you're doing with the non QM stuff
right correct. On the non qanthing, Jeff makes a great point there.
There are a couple of different thingsthat will that help us out.
In this loan. There's no prepaymentpenalty, so you can you can refinance
at any particular time with no penalty. Also, regardless of how high the

(47:29):
loan to value is the LTV,there's no mortgage insurance. So that's a
great benefit too if you can getinto a property that's above eighty ninety ninety
five percent LTV. There's no mortgageinsurance for these loans. And obviously they
are the path of least resistance.They don't require traditional structure and documentation.

(47:50):
And what I mean by that forthe people that know a traditional mortgage is
going to always ask you for twoyears w two's attach returns. It's going
to always ask you for sixty daysof bank statements two months complete, and
they're going to always ask you forthirty days worth of payment history paycheck stubs.
If you get paid every two weeks, once a week, they're going
to ask you for that. That'sthe traditional financial documentation that it's going to

(48:13):
require to get you qualified for aloan. On a traditional loan, what
I mean by traditional is Jenny May, Fanny Freddie, USDA. All those
loans are going to require you tohave that traditional financial structure. The non
QM loans that Jeff is referring to, non qualified mortgages have alternative documentation and
they will require you to have bankstatements for twelve months, twenty four months.

(48:37):
They will allow you to do aprofit and loss. Different loans like
that will allow you to get inwithout traditional structure, and they also have
those value added service we talked aboutno prepayment penalty as well as no mortgage
insurance for a higher LTV loan.D see. Do you find that lenders
themselves are tightening or loosening their guidelinesor is it basically a split down the

(49:00):
middle, whereas you'll have your nonqumans just described it and your more traditional
agency or thirty or fixed rate FannyFreddy. Maybe they are a little bit
tougher to get. Some may bea little bit tougher. And and if
you're dealing direct, and what Imean by direct is if you're you know
you're United Security Financial is a FannyFreddie Jenny seller servicer right. A lot

(49:22):
of times when you're a direct selleror a servicer, that way, you
don't have the overlays that the otherbroker situations or banks have, so you
can be a little bit more lenientand flexible in regards to your underwriter manually
underwriting a situation and just making surethat you know, obviously there's other contensons
that we can make to qualify themost a broker that is taking somewhere,

(49:43):
they may not have that flexibility becausethere may be some overlays, if there's
some credit issues, some previous creditevents that occurred, if the credit score
is lower than usual, there's certainthings that will that will tighten up that
lenders will not be lenient upon andneed a certain cycles score in order for
them to qualify that loan and sellthat loan. So what I see is

(50:04):
that the non QM is already alittle bit more flexible, will offer you
probably a lower a lower tolerance forthe documentation, but I will save.
There are some traditional loans SHA loans, VA loans that only require you to
have a FYCO score, sometimes onlyat five eighty or five point fifty.

(50:25):
You can still get those loans done. So sometimes you trade off the benefit
and that is and that is ifyou have a low Fyco score but you
have traditional documentation, you can providethose documents that we discussed, that's still
a good loan for you because italso is a lower down payment loan for
individuals who make good money, whowill pay their monthly bills but just may

(50:47):
not have enough money to save enoughfor a larger down payments. These loans
are super beneficial and super helpful forindividuals who can qualify in the traditional box.
But if you have the other documentationand have a little bit more down
payment, now Q and maybe theway to go excellent description on the way
you look at UH the same wayI look at the non KM world as

(51:07):
well. We've run out of time, unfortunately, We'll have you back as
we always do. You're our favoritego to for this kind of information.
Charles, could you let people knowhow they may be able to get in
touch with you terrific loan officer,help them get alan. Thank you,
Jeff. You can get a holdof me at area code seven two five
five seven seven eight seven sixty oneat seven two five five seven seven eight

(51:30):
seven sixty one, or you canemail me at C. Giscombe at USF
Wholesale dot net at ceed Gistscombe atUSF Wholesale dot net. I love that
USF Wholesale dot Net. Excellent.Okay, thanks man, Thanks very much
for coming on the show. Thanksfor having me always Jeff's pleasure. Thank
you. That's Charles gistscom from USF. I'm Jeff partin your voice in the

(51:52):
mortgage industry. We'll see you nextweek. You're listening to the Mortgage Boys
with Jeff Barton for more on today'stopic, or visit www dot Melible funding
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point five FM. Right here atKCAA, that station that leaves no listener
behind NBC News Radio. I'm ChrisGaragio. President Biden doesn't think top Democrats
will call on him to drop outof the race. In a Friday interview
with ABC News, Biden said thatSenate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority

(58:15):
Leader Hakim Jeffries told him to stayin the race despite the fallout over his
debate performance. This comes as fiveHouse Democrats have publicly called on Biden to
step aside to allow another candidate intothe race. There are also reports that
Virginia Senator Mark Warner is rallying SenateDemocrats to pressure Biden to bow out.
A Florida judge is setting a Julytwenty first deadline for immunity briefs in former

(58:37):
President Trump's classified documents case. Today, Judge Alien Cannon granted the delay,
just hours after Trump's lawyers requested aruling on their motion to dismiss all charges.
Trump's legal teams sided the Supreme Court'spresidential immunity decision in their request.
Judge Cannon agreed to hear arguments,giving both sides two weeks to prepare briefs.
In the case. Five people aredead after a shooting in northern Kentucky.

(58:58):
Lisa Carton has details. Police respondedto reports of an active shooter early
Saturday at a birthday party at ahome in Florence, just southwest of Cincinnati.
Officers found seven people had been shot. Four were pronounced dead at the
scene, while the rest were takento the hospital in stable condition. Authority
say the twenty year old suspect,who knew the family celebrating the birthday,

(59:20):
died of a self inflicted gunshot woundwhile fleeing police in a car. A
second person is being treated for injuriesafter a shark attack in the waters off
Florida's New smRNA Beach. Official saya twenty six year old man was in
an inner tube in about five feetof water late yesterday when a shark bit
him on his left foot. Theman's injuries were non life threatening. It
was the second shark bite within twentyfour hours at the same Florida beach.

(59:44):
Much of the Texas coast is undera tropical storm warning and a hurricane watches
Burl slowly churns toward landfall. Thelatest from the National Hurricane Center says Burl
is expected to become a hurricane againbefore it reaches the Texas coast late tomorrow
into early Monday. I'm Chris Caragio, NBC News Radio, NBC News on
KCAA Lomel sponsored by Teamsters Local nineteenthirty two, protecting the future of working