KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton (Sun, 21 Jul, 2024)

KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton on Sun, 21 Jul, 2024

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
By Teamsters Local nineteen thirty two,Protecting the Future of Working Families Teamsters nineteen
thirty two, dot Org, NBCNews Radio, I'm Lisa Carton. House
speaker Mike Johnson says Democrats are likelyto face legal challenges if they try to

(00:20):
substitute a new candidate in place ofPresident Biden in the twenty twenty four election.
He told ABC's This Week that everystate has its own system, and
in some states it's just not possibleto switch out a candidate. A rising
number of Democrats have called on Bidento exit the race and make way for
a different presidential nominee. Dozens areinjured after Israeli airstrikes in Yemen. Israel

(00:43):
says Houthi rebels fired a drone intocentral Tel Aviv on Friday, killing one
person and injuring eight others. OnSaturday, Israel responded with air strikes on
diesel storage facilities and an electric companyin Yemen. Initial reports claim at least
eighty people were wounded. Three peoplehave been showed and killed at a party
in Philadelphia early this morning. Tenpeople were shot, including those who were

(01:04):
killed. No motive or suspects yetfor the shooting. Lisa Carton NBC News
Radio. NBC News Radio. I'mLisa Carton. House Speaker Mike Johnson says
Democrats are likely to face legal challengesif they try to substitute a new candidate
in place of President Biden in thetwenty twenty four election. He told ABC's

(01:26):
This Week that every state has itsown system, and in some states it's
just not possible to switch out acandidate. A rising number of Democrats have
called on Biden to exit the raceand make way for a different presidential nominee.
Dozens are injured after Israeli airstrikes inYemen. Israel says Houthi rebels fired
a drone into central Tel Aviv onFriday, killing one person and injuring eight

(01:48):
others. On Saturday, Israel respondedwith air strikes on industry. Each week
on this program, Jeff and hisguests share their expertise, personal antidotes,
and the latest industry news to keepyou in the loops Now to provide you
with insights and help you navigate theconsistently changing world of real estate lending.
Here is your host for the MortgageVoice, Jeff Barton. Welcome back,

(02:10):
everybody. I'm Jeff Bart and yourvoice in the mortgage industry, and thank
you very much for tuning into theshow. We are here on a terrific
day in the middle of summer.Yes, it is summer, and I
know there's a lot of people runningaround with their kids or looking for some
place to live or rent in thefall time. This is what they call
the heightened sweet spot. In thespring buying season turning into summer buying season,

(02:36):
there is a window by which Ithird or forty percent of the homes
in our area will get sold withinthis timeframe. And it always becomes the
pressurized time frame for a seller becausethe seller wants to sell now. They
don't want to say, Okay,this is where the market is, you're

(02:58):
gonna have to wait three six monthsbefore it sells. No, they want
to sell now. And because we'vehad such a demand on housing in southern
California over the last oh pick ayear, four years, five years,
whatever it is, we've seen pricesrise, mortgage race rise, and inventory
shrink. And because of that,sellers have an out you know, moded

(03:19):
look at the way it is interms of how quickly their house is going
to sell. So if you're oneof these people. You've got kids,
you got a new job, yougot to move, and you're looking around
for a house. I really understandwhere you're coming from and how you feel.
Again, I'm Jeff Barton. Thisis the Mortgage Voice. If you
want to see and hear this show, you can go to YouTube Jeff Barton.

(03:42):
The Mortgage Voice is our YouTube channel. If you want to hear on
Saturday and Sunday driving around in theIE, go to KSEAA dot com.
And that is our radio station affiliate. We've been with them for a long
long time and they do a greatjob at promoting what we do for you,
which is bring you real time informationabout what's going on in the mortgage

(04:03):
market and the hows and the whysof the situation and where we are and
how we got there and how wecan get out of that now. We
also bring to the show a lotof experts, experts in the field of
actual mortgages, actually a real estateagent, people who can say this is
how I see it, this ismy business today, and these are the

(04:25):
things I can do to help youunderstand what's going on. You want to
use me, you don't want touse me. That's fine, but they're
gracious enough to come on the showand share the information, whether it's the
interest rates and where they've been stucklike a rock in mid air on a
throwout, you can see seven percentas a persistent six to eight month mortgage

(04:48):
interest rate, kind of where we'vebeen and where we're going to continue to
be, even though we see somemovement and I say some movement towards interest
rate cuts by the Fed. We'regoing to get into a bunch of this
stuff and we're going to talk aboutexactly what the Fed's next move is.
Uh And we've seen some new informationcome out the unemployment rate, We've seen

(05:13):
inflation data coming out later, andby the time of the airing of this
show, we will have inflation data. We're probably going to see slight decrease
in the inflation. We're going tosee people getting excited about the inflation being
under control and at the same timewanting the Fed to cut interest rates.
So tangentially, mortgage interest rates followas well. Now, in looking historically

(05:36):
at where we are in the interestrate climate, seven percent, I said
it's thirty year fix. I'll gothrough that way there. Six point seven
six is a thirty year fix alittle bit better in the fifteen years at
five point nine to eight, FAHAis at six point four eight, the
five to one arm is at sixpoint five percent, and the VA loan
is at five point eight seven,the two years at four point six two

(05:57):
four, and the ten years atfour point I went to seven. Now
we've had that divergent in the twoand the ten, and how the two
is obviously worth more I'm sorry,Yes, is yielding more than the ten
year and has been for over twoyears. And why that may be significant
now as a poor ten for comingrecession. We have a number of different

(06:18):
indicators as the economy has cooled becauseof the interest rates that the Fed has
higher for longer, and people noware more nervous about slowing economy turning into
recessionary mode, and that never bodeswell for anybody. So pick your poison.
You want high or at least somewhathigh inflation, or do you want

(06:44):
the economy that's somehow lessening in termsof the power of what it is for
you and me to be able togo out there and buy a house.
Unemployment, insurance, social security,other things that are are there as a
backstop we haven't seen really increases inany of these things in terms of outlays

(07:04):
for either the federal or the state, in terms of how we're looking at
unemployment. So yes, all thesethings are to be considered. Let's go
through a few things that I haveon my list here today, rather than
just riffing off the top of myhead. Sorry about that. Employment adds
two hundred and six thousand jobs lastmonth. Now, that's right in line

(07:26):
with where they are in terms ofthe cooling of the labor market. The
Jerome Pile had a number of differentthings he's talked about. He's doing some
testimony and you might catch some ofhis testimony. You can either do it
on YouTube or look at some ofyour favorite financial channels and catch some of
the highlights. Two quotes I wantto give to you what Jerome Paul said,

(07:47):
we now face two sided risks.Now, what does that really mean?
Two sided risks. We've had inflationaryrisks, right obviously, and now
we have economy risks, meaning that, okay, if inflation is under control,
but we've seen the economy cool toa certain extent that we may be
sliding towards a negative growth, which, as everyone knows, a couple of
quarters in a row negative growth,you're in a recession. Are we headed

(08:11):
that way? So there are twosided risks. As long as we've been
higher for longer, inflation has hascome under control. Beginning of the year
not so much. But now we'veseen inflation, as I say, continue
its downward trend, as it hasbeen after it reached its high of about
nine percent a couple of years ago. But there is the danger that that
will lead us into recession. Sothe mandate for the Fed right is low

(08:37):
unemployment and growth with the economy.So are they achieving these things? And
that's where we are with Jerome Powell. The second quote I want to quote
to you is quote labor markets appearto be fully back in balance. So
if we're talking about employment, whereare you, You're driving around, you're
listening to me, you're seeing onYouTube, wherever it is that you get

(08:58):
the same information. How's your job? How secure do you feel where you're
working? We see some of theemployment numbers of the two hundred and six
thousand that were hired last month,a lot of them in government. And
is that a good thing? Oris that what we do when we're going
into a recession, government ups therehiring and therefore tries to keep the numbers

(09:20):
of people unemployed as low as possibleas we go through whatever it is now.
I'm not saying it's a recession,but in terms of what they're talking
about in employment wise and the peoplewho are hired and working in these sectors,
everybody's a little bit nervous. Sothat's why when we talk about these

(09:41):
things right now, is this thebest time to buy a house? There's
several different factors in terms of buyinga house, as everybody knows. One,
you have to have the money tobe able to afford it. Two,
there has to be availability of housing, and there is still a lack
of housing opportunity and availability here inSocow. We talk throughout the year about

(10:01):
all the exodus of people that gofrom here to other states, and there's
such a big thing. Oh,it's this, it's that, you know
what it really is. People can'tafford a house. That's the bottom line
of it. If you could affordyour house, you probably wouldn't leave here
because it's a weatherwise, it's agreat place to live. Just the lifestyle

(10:22):
itself, the way California has adifferent mentality about itself and how it self
presents to the people that live here. Now. You may not like taxes,
you may not like other certain thingsthat the government does. Heck,
I don't like them either. However, when it comes to those statistics of

(10:43):
people leaving California, it's really abouthousing affordability, and we've had such a
lack of it now. Conversely,if you own a home, we always
talk about it your happy at heckand your happiest heck because your house value
has gone up forty percent in thelast three years, four years, that's
amazing. You buy for millions nowworth a million four that's pretty good in

(11:05):
terms of you know what your houseis worth today and what you can do
with that particular equity in your home. We talk about that. We'll talk
about it again today. We'll talkabout helocks, we'll talk about seconds,
we'll talk about redoing your first ifin fact, rates ever come down around
the six percent rate, if youhave a five percent mortgage, difference is

(11:26):
one hundred bucks perth one hundred thousand. So if it's a you know,
three hundred thousand dollars house, she'sgonna pay another three hundred dollars in mortgage
interest in terms of getting equity outof your house and being able to afford
a six percent versus five percent mortgage. Anyway, I'm Jeff Bartn, your
voice in the mortgage industry. Reallyappreciate you listening to the show, and
we will be right back. You'relistening to the Mortgage Boys with Jeff Barton.

(11:48):
We'll be right back with more andjust a moment for questions or comments,
send emails to info at melbucoming dotnet. Now back to the Mortgage
Boys with your host, Jeff Barton. Welcome back everybody on Jeff Barton,
your voice in the mortgage industry,and thank you very much for listening to
the show. As you listen tous each and every week, you can

(12:09):
catch us on the usual suspects,but also we have a number of different
podcasts that you might be able totag into, especially if you already have.
De'rely have a list of those,please yes, I do, Jeff
Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker, Stitcher, iHeartMedia, Odyssey,
YouTube, podclips, dot Io andthe mortgage Voice dot com. Mortgage

(12:30):
Voice dot com. That's our website. Go there you can see and hear
all the guests that come on theshow and you can contact them directly and
podclips dot io. I'm pitching themall the time. Great place to go
to get a central way that youcan plug into all your favorite podcasting wants
and needs and again podclips dot IOW, that's a good place to go.
Okay, So we were talking earlierin a segment about what's happening generally across

(12:56):
a lot of what's going on inthe economy, of what's going on in
terms of inflation versus unemployment versus whereare we standing with the interest rates?
A lot of good things. Let'sget right to some news to use section.
Okay, this is a quote andyou have to guess who said it
unless there is a significant surge inthe rate of unemployment, which is currently

(13:16):
not in the forecast. Unless thereis a significant surge in the rate of
unemployment, which is currently not inthe forecast. That means, if in
fact, we do get a surgeonunemployment, we will definitely see the Fed
drop interest rates. So where arewe and who said it? Lawrence Yun
That's right. Nobody would have guessedthat he's the chief economist for the California

(13:39):
Association of Realtors. We go tohim pretty much when we're in these transition
periods, and right now we're inone. We've seen inflation really cool.
We've seen, as Jerome Paul said, the labor market has really come back
into balance. That would mean thatit's pre pandemic levels and in that particular
time period, where were we whatwe're we're doing before pandemic hit and all

(14:03):
the unemployment and then the reemployment andnow we have a balancing out. Another
thing to indicate the balancing out.I don't know if people remember, but
I harped on what a cost oflumber was in the pandemic and how it
had gotten so out of whack itIt really is four hundred, four hundred

(14:24):
and fifty dollars within that range ofone thousand board feet. That's what lumber
costs. So you're building a house, you got to figure that in.
So costs during the recession for buildinga house really went out of whack with
what traditionally they were, and theywent up to sixteen hundred feet per thousand
board feet, sixteen hundred dollars whenit was four hundred dollars. So Mortgage

(14:50):
News Daily came out with their chart, and I just thought it was interesting
to look at of what the boardfeet costs today in February and March of
twenty twenty one, sixteen hundred andforty dollars per thousand square foot of board
feet. Today four hundred and fortydollars per thousand board feet. Now that's
that's right in line with where itwas prior to and this is where it

(15:13):
is today. Now. We don'tsee a reduction in that number, but
we don't see it really inflationary wayabove where it should be where it was
during the pre pandemic level. Sothis is pretty interesting, and I think
there's a lot of products out therethat are going to be like that.
There. Let's see. I havea chart here as well about some of
the things that cost less and havecome down in prices to whereby we're looking

(15:41):
and comparing them to pre pandemic typeof prices. Hotel prices have come down,
rental costs for housing have really comedown, and car sales lower prices
for them as well. This showsa weakness in demand, which is why
the actual economy, I mean,the prices for these three things have come
down and why we see things likeyou know, building materials for housing has

(16:06):
also come down. Where will webe in six months a year really depends
on what happens with government spending,what happens with the inflationary nod Are we
going to go into one, arewe're not going to go into them?
We're back to that again. Andwill the Fed reduce the cost of borrowing
inner bank, which in turn reducesthe cost for mortgages, which of course

(16:29):
in turn unlocks all that equity,which would really spur demand. That's really
where we're heading. I think,I don't know if it'll be this year
or next year. Just really depends. If we have a change in writer
at the top of the presidential runhere and we get don Trump in again,
well, that will spur certain economicactivity because cutting taxes and cutting regulation

(16:53):
that's always a Republican way by whichthey can stimulate. If we get up
a more of a a Biden swinginto this thing, we will get more
government spending. Both of these guysare not going to do a thing about
the debt unless we get into themilitary versus social spending kind of argument,
which I don't know, you know, to me, when you're bailing people

(17:15):
out or you're helping people out withcontracts from the government. What's the difference
if you're spending on one versus another. I think one way to look at
it is that if we had atotal reduction in spending, that would be
good long term. But is itgood for me who wants to buy a
house tomorrow. No, not really. I did see an article today it
was incredibly interesting saying that the peoplewho are gonna pay for the huge burgeoning,

(17:40):
burgeoning I hate that word, butthe huge debt that the government has
thrown upon us thirty three trillion dollarshas gone up about twenty trillion in the
last fifteen years through the Gulf Warwar. Yeah, the Gulf War,
Afghanistan War, the tax cuts,you know, all these things have really

(18:00):
added, like doubled the deficit.But it's gonna come down to baby boomers
having to pay. Now what doesthat mean. I don't know what that
means. The article didn't say,but my suspicion is the taxes on inheritance,
taxes on transferring wealth are all goingto go up, and this is
how these particular bills are going toget paid. I for one, I'm

(18:22):
in that age range. I don'tknow exactly what exactly that means for me.
Does it mean my property tax goesup, No, because that's not
federal What it means would mean aage bracket kind of increase. I don't
know, but I do know accordingto this article, that's what it said.
So, uh, take it forwhat it is. Fifty four percent
of home prices rise. Okay,So fifty four percent is the number I

(18:47):
said, forty percent Since twenty nineteen, the average home in the US has
risen in price fifty four percent.That's a lot. That's that's that's not
the million to a million four,that's a million to a million five.
That's incredible, million five forty Asa matter of fact, So those people

(19:08):
out there like myself, maybe thisis what the tax is going to be.
It's a tax on unrealized debt,I mean unrealized the increase in the
value of your home. I wasthinking a couple of weeks ago, just
about Okay, So if we tookhalf of the increase that people have gotten
in their homes, refinance our homesand paid it to the government and attax,

(19:30):
would that, in fact buy downthe debt? I think it would.
Uh, And I think buying downthe debt for our kids and grandkids
is probably the best thing we coulddo in order to ensure the US has
the economic legs to be able towithstand whatever. You know, economic issues
come up, whether it's a war, whether it's weather, and weather is

(19:52):
killing us by the way. Idon't know if anyone was watching Hurricane Barrel
or the fires in southern California thatare just burning really NonStop. And apparently
we have the Fire Department country inmy house the other day and they were
saying, look, it's not thedryness per se, although that's bad.
It's the wind. You can't controlthe wind, and it's unbelievable. I

(20:12):
know from my own house. Ican attest over the last two or three
years. When it blows, it'sblown fifty sixty miles an hour and you
get caught up in some kind offire issue or the dryness and a spark.
That's what's pushing fires through not onlyhere, but in Arizona, Utah.
A number of other states have experiencedthe same kind of wildfire. We're

(20:36):
lucky we got our insurance, andI know we talked about the horribleness of
having to cut all our vegetation awayfrom the house and being able to get
that fire certificate so that we canbring it to our insurance company and say,
hey, look we have this firecertificate from a third party country,
a company rather and they've given usthe ability to say, hey, look,
we've done everything we can to preventfire. Give us our insuran,

(21:00):
which they did. But from theinsurance standpoint, oh my gosh. Can
you imagine trying to predict the lossthat you're going to get every time there's
a fire, especially in southern Californiawhere the population is dense. I mean,
some areas of California there's nobody there, so let it burn, right,
But in a lot of areas wherethere's a lot of brush, yeah,
that's a problem. Anyway, I'mJeff Barton, your voice in the

(21:22):
mortgage industry. Really appreciate you listeningto the show, and we'll be right
back. You're listening to the MortgageBoys with Jeff Barton. We'll be right
back with more and just a momentfor questions or comments, send emails to
info at melibrubundings dot net. Nowback to the Mortgage Boys with your host,
Jeff Barton. Welcome back, everybody. I'm Jeff Barton, your voice

(21:45):
in the mortgage industry. Thanks verymuch for tuning into the show listening to
us on a weekly We come toyou Saturday and Sunday, driving around all
the things you do in order toget those days done. Whether it's you're
going to church or you're going tothe hardware store, you just drive and
the kids around find something to do. We are on casey aaam and FM
signals. We're on the big hilland we have a signal that carries all

(22:08):
over the place out to Palm Springsand western Los Angeles County, south to
Orange County and north Inio. ButSam Bernardiner and Riverside Counties. That's our
bread and butter, and we liketo bring to you each and every week
things that will help you decide whetheryou're going to buy a house, whether
you need to sell a house,or whether you're just in the market or
not in the market. There's certainlya lot of signs one way or the

(22:30):
other. But I'm not the experton this area. The guy I bring
on usually to talk about it isGeorge Gonzalez, and I'm lucky enough to
have him again today. He worksover at south Land Mortgage George, how
are you, Hey, Jeff,thanks for having me on. I'm doing
excellent. How are you over thereat the beach? You know, oh
Nan, you had to throw thatout there. You know, the beach
is nice, except sometimes it's alittle cold. To be honest, you

(22:55):
like to rub that in. Iknow, I know, I'm sorry,
and that's not true. I justsaid that because I knew it, all
right. So speaking of hot now, we've gone through the spring buying season,
which according to you know, severalsources was kind of a bust.
Where are we right now in termsof both inventory and houses available? And

(23:17):
how is the market out there inthe ie? Well those are those are
awesome questions. So we can startwith the inventory out here in the Inland
Empire, you know, Ontario,Rench, Cucamonga, Fontana rialto Samernadino.
All these areas over here are okay, I mean it's there, there are
some there's more inventory. Let's putit that way. Cause there's more inventory.

(23:40):
I've seen in the recent a fewprice reductions on properties. Okay,
longer times the seal, which meansthere, you know, more days on
the market before. As you know, the last year two years they were
flying off within fifteen twenty days,right sold. Now I think we're up
to somewhere averaging forty five seventy fivedays on the market, depending on you

(24:03):
know, on the area. Sure. Sure, the hot areas out there
are where to George. The hotareas are the northern part of Fontanaka area
and the northern part of Rancho Cucamongaarea. Okay, And that's because the
houses are great, and the schoolsystem's great and all the infrastructure that you
need for you know that kind ofprice. What what are the prices they're
getting for those houses out there.So if you're looking, let's say,

(24:26):
a standard three bedrooms, two bathin Northern Ranch Cuckamonga's probably in the eight
eight hundred and fifty thousand range tostart, the North Fontana, which has
the same quality of the houses,maybe a little bit newer, same sizes
and all that good stuff, you'relooking somewhere in the range probably seven hundred
thousand is so about a seven fiftyabout one hundred hundred fifty thousand differents after

(24:52):
the freeway that the freeway divides thevalues, right right, Okay, all
right, so now we talk aboutthe real estate, the real estate inventory
and why it's gone up, andthat the affordability index here in southern California
is terrible. What what is themagic mix that we have enough houses on
the market where prices come down,yet at the same time, when we

(25:14):
have lower interest rates, we don'tsee a rush back into the market pushing
the prices back up. Is theresort of a then diagram I can send
people to to figure this out.Well, the thing about it is,
you know, this is the firsttime in history, as we all know,
where interest rates are high as wellas housing prices are high. Typically
it's you know one or the other, right, yeah, you know,

(25:37):
and balance it out a little bit. So at this point, the thing
that I'm looking for is I'm tellingmy buyers is you know, I had
a few of them waiting for forsuch a long time, and then finally
I said, look, let's let'snot wait anymore. Let's just jump on
something and get you somewhere in somethingthat you need now for your family,
and you know, later on onat the line, hopefully when the rates
come down, we can drop youryour payment, which will you know,

(26:02):
you'll still get the house you want, except you're just paying a little more
upfront for it, but you'll getit back in the long run. And
are you suggesting to people that theyput more of a down payment so that
the payment between a higher price houseone you know they're paying with seven percent
mortgage or they're about thirty year fixedrate, or are you just saying,
look, let's just get in atthe cheapest amount and go for the longer

(26:26):
term payment like a forty year Andagain, well, those are the two
options I give them. It's caseby case, you know, and I
just let them. I present themthe payments in comparison with each other,
and you know, and they makethe decision on what's best for them.
And so you know, not everyobviously, not every scenario is perfect for
the next for the next person.So yeah, that's basically I do.

(26:49):
If they can afford it and they'recomfortable, why are they waiting. They
have the money for the down payment, there's no reason to wait. You
know, you need to buy ahouse. You need somewhere to live,
right, It's not like a car, it's not like you know, a
TV. This is something that youknow you're going to be living in.
And you know, it's hard forpeople to get that because of the last

(27:10):
what we just went through all theirfamilies and friends bought them at three percent
and throwing it in their face.And so you know, that's what's really
really been the hiccup is the peoplethat got the low rate who are bragging,
and the people who feel left outdon't know if it's time or if
they should wait their turn for threepercent rate again, which probably will never
come. What is the hangover timeon this three percent thing? Now,

(27:32):
we are almost two years away fromhaving low interest rates, and we've certainly
seen seven percent pretty consistently for thepast I don't know, twelve to eighteen
months. When do people forget andsay, you know what, seven percent
I can afford that, let's goget it right. And that's where I
think we're about right now. Okay. As a matter of fact, the
chief bernanke today, I think Iheard him on the online saying that they're

(27:57):
asking him what's going on? Said, you know, they said, you
see, we're well into inflation here. People are struggling people of this.
What are you guys waiting for?You haven't lowered the interest rate? That
was one of the suggestions thrown athim, and he basically said, I'm
not going to talk about that.I'm not giving nobody no no needs of
which way I'm going to lean itto. So it was just basically shut

(28:18):
up, is what he told them. Yeah, I saw some of that
Powell speaking Jerome Powell speaking at theSenate Subcommittee or wherever he goes to give
his biannual meeting notice and what's goingon at the Fed and how they're planning
to I think what we're going tosee is probably September. That's what everybody's
saying. Seventy five percent chance theylower Fed interest rates. And as you

(28:42):
and I both know, the FEDinterest rate is not the mortgage interest rate,
but they tend to follow one another. If the FED rate goes down,
mortgage interest rates can probably go downto so September. And so I
don't know if that is what peoplehere out there in the world. I
mean, I watch it because Iwatch Bloomberg every day, But I don't
don't know. If you're average personout there who's looking to buy a house

(29:03):
listens to that stuff, what areyou telling them? Well, this,
as a matter of fact, thislast month, you're the vouchers came out
for the first round of vouchers cameout for the Dream for All programs.
Oh you're kidding. Did you sayhow many of your people got one?
I got out of eight applications,one of my clients got one. Great.
They're actually looking for a house rightnow as we speak. They're going

(29:23):
to go see some properties tonight withone of my agents. But yeah,
so you're gonna notice in the nextthirty sixty ninety days there should be more
closings right now because they got thesevouchers out there for these people to use
them. So those might, youknow, take in an account for some
of the more coming upcoming sales thatare about to happen. Okay, loan
programs, give me a quick rundownof what loan programs are you currently using.

(29:48):
I know you talked a little aboutthe forty year, but what else
are you doing? Just the conventionalthirty years of the most popular twenty percent
down, ten percent down, fivepercent down, you know, whatever they
can can come up with in theircredit score, you know. But there's
no fancy loans out there, there'sright, you know, that's basically straight
income docs. If you're self employed, then you know, we can figure

(30:11):
it out with twelve months deposit bankstatements. To find some non QM financing
different there's other different ways for selfemployed, but if you're employed with W
two, the standard is going tobe either the FAHA the thirty years,
or the conventional thirty years or theVA thirty years because those are the most
popular loans. So if you're lookingfor a low down payment, it's FAHA.

(30:33):
And if you're looking for maybe youknow, the best rate possible,
you're still going with a thirty yearfixed. You're just extending out the time
you're going to pay it from thirtyto forty. That's correct, okay,
And where are we on all that? What does a forty year payment look
like in terms of percentage wise?Are you looking at like still six and
a half to seven percent on theforty year that's the thirty to forty I

(30:56):
believe I haven't priced one out latelybecause there's only a few banks that are
doing that, right, that's true, and so I haven't priced went out
in the recent but they're a littlebit higher, a little bit probably in
the mid sevenths. I I see, okay, hey listen, we're up
against it. That's a quick tenminutes. I love having you on.
You got a lot of good information, perfect person to give a call.
If you could let people know howthey can get in touch with you,

(31:18):
that'd be great. Yeah. Mydirect number is area code nine O nine
nine zero zero nine five six'five excellent. George, thanks very much
for coming on. Always appreciated.Thanks, Jeff, appreciated too, Thank
you very much. That's George Gonzalesfrom Southland Mortgage. I'm Jeff Barton,
your voice in the mortgage industry.Be right back. You're listening to the
Mortgage Voys with Jeff Barton. We'llbe right back with more and just a

(31:44):
moment for questions or comments, sendemails to info at Melibu funding dot net.
Now back to the Mortgage Boys withyour host, Jeff Barton. Welcome
back, everybody. I'm Jeff Barton, your voice in the mortgage industry.
Thanks very much for tuning in tothe show, for listening to us.
Each and every week we bring toyou some information that's going to help you

(32:05):
in your decision making process. Iknow we're getting to the middle of the
summer. I know spring buying seasonis over. I know that you probably
want a house, but you wantto wait until September when the FED might
drop rates. Yes, I know. However, there is always a good
time to buy, and every dayis another day that you have an opportunity
to go out and find something youreally like in the marketplace, find a

(32:28):
great lender, and find somebody tobe able to help you guide you through
this process. And when rates drop, you can always go back and refinance.
I know that's a staid and trueexplanation of what you do in the
marketplace, but it is true.I mean, the opportunities are still out
there. We will see inventories growand we will see mortgage interest rates fall.

(32:50):
This is what's going to happen.Now. When it happens, I
don't know. I'm not the prognosticator, but I do have somebody on the
phone right now who might have someanswers. Jennifer Martinez is from Sierra Pacific
Mortgage joins us now, Jennifer,how are you? I am doing well,
Jeff, how are you? I'mpretty good? Well. You heard
that bloated in introduction. Where doyou think we are right now in this

(33:14):
cycle? I mean, I don'tknow. You probably caught a lot of
Jerome Pull's explanation on the hill today. So what do you think I mean,
I do think that things are goingto get better, right. You
know, I have seen production pickup, so that's an awesome thing.
Yeah. So you know, Ithink that probably the worst is behind us,

(33:37):
right, and so we're looking towardsbrighter days, hopefully sooner than later.
Right X and no, I agreeit, And I think the optimism
is good. I mean, wein the mortgage business have been hammered the
past three years, and knowing thatbusiness is going to get better when interest
rates drop, we always look towardsthe unemployment numbers and those have not been

(33:58):
great. I mean they've been risingunemployed, but employment numbers are coming down.
These are the kind of things thatwe say, Okay, we're happy
that mortgage interdates are going to belowered, but some people are going to
be out of a job. Sowhat are we looking at in terms of
product from Sierra that we might beable to say can handle both of those
possible outcomes. Well, So,you know, the California Housing Authority rolled

(34:21):
out the Dream for all. Yep, they finally have issued the vouchers.
So I think that you know,with the sixteen hundred vouchers, you know,
we're going to see a lot offirst time home buyers get into homes.
You know, the saying you datethe right, you marry the house.
I think that's absolutely true. Idon't think that people should be sitting
around waiting for these rates to drop. I mean, if you can afford

(34:43):
the mortgage payment at the higher interestrate, I mean I would definitely get
out there and you know, getinto homes because once those rates drop it's
going to be a seating frenzy again. So if definitely have an opportunity to
get into a house, I wouldjump at it and then you know,
refinance later down the line when ratesdo drop down. Now, we got

(35:06):
a ton of equity in most properties, right, I mean I have in
my house. I'm sure that youhave in your house. Most people who
own a home are very happy becausethey've seen, you know, obviously their
equity rise by about fifty percent inthe last five years. What are you
telling people who want to tap intothat but not mess around with their three
percent mortgage? I mean some ofthem, you know, do the line

(35:29):
of credit, right, get ahome equity line of credit and you know,
try to pay off your you know, because credit card debt is at
the maximum it's been in like twentyyears yep. So I think that if
you can tap into that equity,then do so. I mean, in
all honesty, if you look atwhat your credit card payments are compare to

(35:51):
you know, maybe a little bithigher of an interest rate, and yeah,
you are going to have to getrid of that three percent, but
you're also going to get out getrid of the thirty three percent interest rate
for your credit card debt. Soyou've got to look at that and neede
it makes sense, you know,if you can't do a home equity line
of credit, just get rid ofall that credit card debt. So I

(36:14):
agree. I agree with that onehundred percent. I mean, you know,
the credit card debt has been chokingon us for some time. And
how do you wean people off fromspending money? I mean that's the real
issue here, Not that they shouldn'tspend money on a house, but should
you spend money on I don't know, some frivolous items that maybe not right
now? I mean this is onehundred percent yeah, I mean it's so

(36:36):
if you can get rid of thosepayments, I mean, it may be
worth getting into like a six anda half interest rate on your first mortgage,
right, So it's and sometimes likethey have to use their credit cards
because I mean inflation is still highyep, So they're using it to go
buy grocery. You know, that'sdouble than what they were paying two years

(36:57):
ago for grocery. So I meanit's kind of a double edged right.
But if you have that equity,I mean I would probably maybe contemplate getting
you know, refinancing your house,tapping into that equity and getting rid of
some of those debts that you don'tnecessarily need. I agree. I think
debt is killing us, and Ithink the federal debt is killing us more.
And at some point somebody is goingto say stop or we're going to

(37:20):
have an implosion and the things thatare worth something now aren't going to be
worth the same things. And theseare a problem. However, specifically today,
what are give me an example ofa couple of the programs that you
have over at Sierra to be ableto, you know, help people either
first time home buyers or in youknow, thirty year fixed rate. What
are you all offering? What's thebest programs? Well, so, I

(37:43):
mean, I we just rolled outwith this W two wagering or Express Okay,
Basically it's a streamline. It's athree line alone. So we basically
there's a couple of buttons that youcan press in our system and we will
pull a finicity report, which basicallypulls the like an income verification as well

(38:07):
as an asset verification. I'm underwritingthose loans in twenty four hours, you
know. It's a one two touchtype of loan to where we're getting them
closed, you know, in lessthan twenty one days. And for purposes,
I mean, that's what I'm gettinga lot of is a twenty one
day close. So it definitely streamlinesthe process. I mean, we do

(38:28):
faha, right, we do manualunderwrites with faha. So let's say you've
got not so great credit, youknow, we could definitely work with you
with certain guidelines and get you intothose homes. You know. We also
have we rolled out with banks statementprograms, a twelvemonth and a twenty four

(38:52):
month program, as well as aDSCR, which is the debt service relief
for the you know, the investmentproperties. My investment pricing and second home
pricing is off the charts, It'son fire. So I'm doing a lot
of that doing a lot of purchasepurchases for investors. Okay, that's good.

(39:15):
Now let's just sit down on thatfor a second to give us an
overall really specific picture as to yourinvestment type purchases that you're saying, is
it the rate on fire or isjust availability of funds or ease of transaction?
What is it? I mean,it's the rate Okay, in all

(39:35):
honesty, it's pricing better than actuallya primary residence right now. And that's
unbelievable. That's great. Yes,and so you know, and it's a
streamline process, so there are thingsthat you know you can do. Yes,
you you know, we're putting thedown. But you know, for

(39:57):
people that want to build up theirportfolio, it's a great to get into
when you're you know, getting aloan for seven in an eight, yeah,
opposed to seven and a half whenyou're purchasing a primary residence. So
it's definitely if you have the moneyand you want to build your portfolio,
it's a great product. It's it'salmost mind boggling. I'm thinking, well,

(40:21):
why would the bank do that?So I'm trying to think of questions
to ask you about. You know. Okay, so you have this ability
to be able to offer a cheaperrate on a second home. Is that
because the second homes have more value, or if we have a downturn in
the recession, easily get unloaded quicklyso you don't have them on your books.
What are you thinking at in termsof you know, the reason why

(40:42):
that would be, I think WallStreet has an appetite for them. Okay,
that's right, So I definitely feellike, you know, that's a
huge part of it. And youknow, second homes are usually the ones
that get offloaded first right, apost in your primary or an investment property
right right, So you know it'sa great product, it's a great way

(41:08):
to build wealth. I agree onehundred percent. And I also like the
fact that you know the rates areso attractive. Well, you know,
if you're in the business and thisis what you do, absolutely you'd look
at this because otherwise you go innon QM. You know, all these
investors that are paying anywhere from eightto twelve percent in terms of a yearly

(41:28):
just to get into an investment property. Now you've got something now that's a
second home, so you're not lookingat it necessarily as an investment. But
that's probably what you're selling these peopleto. Well, so the second home
order an investment probably, so that'slike pricing is yes, it's just it's
I mean, I've brought in probablya dozen this week, right right,

(41:51):
I'm sure purchases with this product,so I mean, yeah, there's definitely
deals being done. So absolutely,well, they should give you a call.
You want to shout out a wayby which people can get in touch
with you, that'd be great.Yeah, absolutely So you can either reach
out to me via email at Jenniferdot Martinez at ss sampas and Paul and

(42:15):
misonmarycasincat dot com or give me acall at six one nine five zero two
zero three seven seven. Excellent.Well, thank you very much. If
we've come to the end of ourlittle talk here, and I really appreciate
that's a lot of good information.Thank you. Well, I appreciate you,
Jess. It's always a pleasure always. Thank you very much, Jennifer,

(42:35):
we'll talk soon. Okay, youhave a great day, you too.
That's Jennifer Martinez from Sierra Pacific Mortgage. I'm Jeff Barton, your voice
in the mortgage industry. We'll beright back. You're listening to the Mortgage
Boys with Jeff Barton. We'll beright back with more and just a moment
for questions or comments, send emailsto info at melibo funding dot net.
Now back to the Mortgage Boys withyour host Jeff Barton. Welcome back,

(43:00):
everybody. I'm Jeff mart and yourvoice in the mortgage industry. Thanks very
much for tuning into the show.Each week we come to you, we
bring you this information that we hopeyou act on. Sometimes it's a wait
and hold. Sometimes it's like yougotta do it right now. We are
in and a time period between thespring buying season in the middle of the

(43:21):
summer where people gotta go, gottado it now, and people who can
wait are gonna wait to see ifSeptember is the time when the Fed drops
interest rates and hopefully the mortgage interestrates will follow. I've got the best
person. He comes to the showall the time. Charles Giscom joins us
again from United Security Financial to giveus some answers as to really what direction

(43:42):
you might be able to go,what kind of loan products are out there?
Charles, how are you? I'mdoing good, Jeff, thanks for
having me again, my friend.Thank you, buddy. I appreciate it,
and where are we in this market? It's so confusing. I'm watching
Jerome Powell give testimony, I watchpeople bark at him for two hours.
I'm like, I still don't reallyknow what he's doing. How we're going

(44:02):
to get there in order to satisfyso much demand and yet so little product.
As well as mortgage interest rates,which are scaring a lot of people
out of California and maybe some otherparts of the country as well. Give
us your overview as to what's happening. That'd be great, absolutely, Well.
You know, the interest rate todayprobably about seven point for on a

(44:24):
thirty year, six point seven ona fifteen year, so you know,
they're still steadily where they are.They haven't moved too much. They'll fluctuate
up and down, you know,to increasing twelve basis points over the last
seven days. But Jeff, guesswhat. The one thing that that doesn't
matter with that is that due tolimited supply, the home prices hold there's

(44:49):
value. So the reality of itis is with that happening, the values
are still there, which always meansfor Jeff and I when we're talking to
everybody out there, get in thegame. There's still value in the game.
You still can make money. You'renot losing money. Obviously, our
rational head says, we don't serviceupside down debt, but you're not going

(45:13):
to because the markets told insteady andso for traditional lending right now, there
are no really great interest rates orgreat interest rates that we were used to
two years ago. There's no morelows twos and threes and fours and five
and sixes. Barely, but weare still back to where we work.
You still can get into the game. And even if a traditional rate is

(45:36):
not attitional mortgage is not where yourstructure is, there are many other alternative
loan programs that can help you getinto this game, still help you have
an opportunity to make some money,or at least to get into a steady
investment so that when things do correctthemselves, you will be able to make
money and you won't lose money.So if these cycles and where we are

(45:59):
now, we're not really quite sure. But Powell said today, he said,
hey, look, we are ina normal employment cycle, meaning that
we are pre pandemic normal employment cycle, meaning that you're going to get numbers
that are either going to indicate theeconomy is growing because more jobs are coming
into the market, or that theunemployment rate goes up which means less jobs.

(46:24):
And that really affects how we lookat a borrower whether they got a
job obviously, right, But inthe realm of investment properties, what are
we looking at different than a traditionalloan in a thirty year fixed rate from
Fanny Mack. Well, you knowwhat, although the economy, Jeff has

(46:45):
proven itself to be more resilient thanexpected, despite what everyone else is saying
and the uncertainties, I feel likethe investment market and getting into it wont
Jeff had mentioned is probably a betterinvolved compared to the traditional way. There
are a lot of investment property programs, fix and slip programs, you know,

(47:09):
hold in rent DSCR loans. Theseare all loans that individuals can get
into without providing the full traditional mortgagestructure in both right, That's what I'm
getting at, right exactly, Andthat means and that means two years of
tax returns or W two's I meansixty days of bank statements, which is

(47:29):
two months. I mean thirty daysof paycheck steps which means four weeks to
or bi weekly or so basically whenyou have that when you when you're required
to have that. That is atraditional loan. What Jeff is referring to
is the ability to get into theinvestment market if you have a capital that
will allow you to use less documentationand in most cases what they call it

(47:52):
is a node doc. I knowpeople are not, you know, used
the no docks were very a longtime ago. There was a no dock
owned and everyone was using it away. Well now they're back. They're called
stated stated loans, and they're calledno doc loans, and real quick,
I'll tell you they don't require Wtwo's paycheck stubs, tax returns. They
only require that you show the moneythat you have in the bank as a

(48:14):
down payment or reserves. And itdoesn't matter if the money is a seasoned
or not. You can utilize thosefunds even if they've gotten to your account
the day before. As long asthey come from you, your business account
and your personal account, you're allowedto utilize those funds as your down payment
and reserves. The other thing isyou can close in an entity name what

(48:35):
an entity name? What we meanis an LLC or a corporation, whether
it's an es corp or a Ccorp or even a trust. As long
as it's not in a revocable trust, you can close it and a revocable
trust. The benefits of these isto create protection for yourself. It also
acts as as the guarantee are onthe loan, so now your bills come

(48:57):
in those entity names. The biggestand the biggest value added service to a
loan like this is that these mortgagesand liabilities don't show up on your personal
lane name. Where you can dothat at I don't know, but we
can do it here, jeffs.And the beautiful thing is we would love
to provide some of those things toindividuals. What kind of a down payment

(49:17):
and credit score you need on theloan like that. Surprisingly, obviously there
are some programs that on these programsthat will start anywhere from sixty five percent
LTV, which is thirty five down, seventy five, twenty five down on
up. There are some of theseprograms that we can get you into an
investment property or fixing flip with tenpercent down, same type of loans.

(49:39):
So there are many different loan productsout there depending on where you are now.
Jeff said, it's it's important forthe credit scores for these Okay,
So, but the minimum credit scorethat we can work in and I'm gonna
say this, and I know thephones are gonna go crazy, Jeff,
but we can get into some ofthese loans dependent on the LTV with a

(50:00):
five eighty fycle score. Okay,so five to eighty non QM you must
have what thirty five percent down?Is that the way they'll do it?
Well in this loan, you canhave thirty five percent or thirty percent down,
okay, And if you have afycle score above six fifty, it's
twenty five percent down. Yeah,well that's really good. And I'm sure

(50:22):
if you have a seven seven fortyin that range you get even less down.
You get less down, you geta better interest rate, and you
have more options. So all ofthis is designed to really help people with
you know, obviously challenges or they'relooking at maybe not a traditional type loan,
but something to get into, sinktheir teeth into, and with the

(50:43):
different options that they have, itbecomes an attractive property, an attractive loan
for them to get into. Absolutely, Jeff. It's an attractive loan,
and it's also built for individuals onceagain that don't have traditional financial structure or
are additional job. Someone that's holdevery day working for themselves, it's more

(51:04):
importantly to keep their money as opposedto you know, it's not what you
make, it's what you keep.And in a lot of cases, you
know, if you're not providing yourtax returns and different stuff, the entrepreneurs
look for these type of loans sothey don't have to provide that because I'll
tell you, if you're an entrepreneur, most times you're writing everything off and
so your income on tax return statementsdon't look as high, even though you
may be doing very well for yourself. But guess will always look good.

(51:29):
Your bank statements, whether they're acommercial or personal, whether they're an LLC
or personal, your bank statements showthe real deposits that's coming through. And
that's a beautiful thing because as longas you can show the ATR which we
always talk about here, which isthe ability to repay right, if you
can show that if there's a loanfor you out there, and this is
a great loan that an individual whodoesn't have the traditional structure financial structure can

(51:52):
get into a loan, a lotof people feel like it's worth the down
payment to have the path the leastresistance to get involved with market still and
still having these properties have value andnot losing or being upside down. Listen,
we got about a minute left onthe refinance of a loan like this,
especially if it's an LLC. Anyissues would that come up later if

(52:15):
somebody wants to get out of theloan they're in and maybe get a lower
interest rate on a similar type loanand say less than a year, any
issues with that, No, thereis really no issues. The one thing
about it is a lot of lendersthat were utilized, they will have a
pre payment penalty because they'll have alot of fees. They don't have a
lot of fees up front, sothey're looking for you to stay in that
loan longer so that the interest paymentsthat they make are the money that they

(52:36):
make. The beautiful thing is theygive you the option to buy the prepayment
penalty down to twelve months or less, and so that way you're in this
property. You use it as astrategy to get into a property, but
within twelve months or less, youcan refinance into a traditional loan or another
loan that may have a better interestrate. When the interest rates correct themselves.
So this is another great strategy forindividuals to get into loans from a

(53:00):
strategic standpoint on a short term strategy, and then in the longer term strategy,
when the interest rate do correct yourselves, you can refinance into a traditional
loan. Why you you financing toanother loan similar to this with a lower
interest rate. It's all there foryou. All you have to do is
reach out and make sure that youget an informed loan officer right exactly like

(53:21):
yourself. And speaking of that,could you shout out a way by which
people might be able to get intouch with you, that'd be great.
I sure will absolutely Jeff. Youcan reach me at seven two five five
seven seven eight seven sixty one againat seven two five five seven seven eight
seven sixty one, or you canreach me at c Getscom at USF Wholesale
dot net. Charles, thanks verymuch once again coming on doing a great

(53:43):
job. Appreciate it. Thank youJeff for having me always. Thank you
very much, Charles Getscom from UnitedSecurity Financial on Jeff partin your voice in
the mortgage industry and we'll see younext time. You're listening to the Mortgage
Voice with Jeff Barton. For moreon today's topic, visit www dot melible
funding dot net. Don't list admittedof the action. Check out the podcasts

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