KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton (Sun, 28 Jul, 2024)

KCAA: The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton on Sun, 28 Jul, 2024

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Nineteen thirty two or.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
With Jeff Barton, your Voice in the Mortgage Industry. Each
week on this program, Jeff and his guests share their expertise,
personal antidotes, and the latest industry news to keep you
in the loops now to provide you with insight and
help you navigate the consistently changing world of real estate lending.
Here is your host for the Mortgage Voice, Jeff Barton.

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Welcome back everybody. I'm Jeff Barton, your Voice in the
Mortgage Industry, and thank you very much for tuning into
the show. We are here on a terrific day in
the middle of summer. Yes, it is summer, and I
know there's a lot of people running around with their
kids or looking for some place to live or rent
in the fall time. This is what they call the
heightened sweet spot. In the spring buying season turned into

(00:49):
summer buying season. There is a window by which I
third or forty percent of the homes in our area
get sold within this timeframe, and it always becomes the
pressurized time frame for a seller because the seller wants
to sell now. They don't want to say, Okay, this

(01:11):
is where the market is. You're gonna have to wait
three six months before it sells. No, they want to
sell now. And because we've had such a demand on
housing in southern California over the last oh pick a year,
four years, five years, whatever it is, we've seen prices rise,
mortgage rates rise, and inventory's shrink. And because of that,
sellers have an out you know, moded look at the

(01:34):
way it is in terms of how quickly their house
is going to sell. So if you're one of these people,
you've got kids, you got a new job, you got
to move, and you're looking around for a house, I
really understand where you're coming from and how you feel. Again,
I'm Jeff Barton. This is the Mortgage Voice. If you
want to see and hear this show, you can go

(01:55):
to YouTube Jeff Barton. The Mortgage Voice is our YouTube channel.
If you want to hear on Saturday and Sunday driving
around in the ie, go to KCAA dot com and
that is our radio station affiliate. We've been with them
for all a long long time and they do a
great job at promoting what we do for you, which
is bring you real time information about what's going on

(02:18):
in the mortgage market and the hows and the whys
of the situation and where we are and how we
got there and how we can get out of that now.
We also bring to the show a lot of experts,
experts in the field of actual mortgages, actually a real
estate agent, people who can say, this is how I
see it, this is my business today, and these are

(02:39):
the things I can do to help you understand what's
going on. You want to use me, you don't want
to use me, that's fine, but they're gracious enough to
come on the show and share the information, whether it's
the interest rates and where they've been stuck like a
rock in midair on a throwout. You can see seven
percent as a persistent, you know, six to eight month

(03:03):
mortgage interest rate, kind of where we've been and where
we're going to continue to be even though we see
some movement and I say some movement towards interest rate
cuts by the Fed. We're going to get into a
bunch of this stuff and we're going to talk about
exactly what the Fed's next move is. And we've seen
some new information come out the unemployment rate, we've seen

(03:27):
inflation data coming out later and by the time of
the airing of this show, we will have inflation data.
We're probably going to see slight decrease in the inflation.
We're going to see people getting excited about the inflation
being under control and at the same time wanting the
Fed to cut interest rates. So tangentially, mortgage interest rates

(03:47):
follow as well. Now, in looking historically at where we
are in the interest rate climate, seven percent, I said
its thirty year fix. I'll go through that way there,
six point seven six is the thirty year fix, a
little bit better in the fifteen years at five point
nine to eight, FAHA is at six point four eight,
the five to one arm is at six point five percent,

(04:08):
and the VA loan is at five point eight seven,
the two years at four point six two four, and
the ten years at four point two seven. Now we've
had that divergent in the two and the ten and
how the two is obviously worth more I'm sorry, Yes,
is yielding more than the ten year and has been
for over two years. And why that may be significant

(04:29):
now as a pour ten to four coming recession. We
have a number of different indicators as the economy has
cooled because of the interest rates that the FED has
higher for longer and people now are more nervous about
slowing economy turning into recessionary mode, and you know that
never bodes well for anybody. So pick your poison. You

(04:52):
want high or at least somewhat high inflation, or do
you want the economy that's somehow lessening in terms of
the power of what it is for you and me
to be able to go out there and buy a house. Unemployment, insurance,
social Security, other things that are there as a backstop.

(05:16):
We haven't seen really increases in any of these things
in terms of outlays for either the federal or the state,
in terms of how we're looking at unemployment. So yes,
all these things are to be considered. Let's go through
a few things that I have on my list here today,
rather than just riffing off the top of my head.
Sorry about that. Employment adds two hundred and six thousand

(05:37):
jobs last month. Now, that's right in line with where
they are in terms of the cooling of the labor market.
They Jerome Pile had a number of different things he's
talked about. He's doing some testimony and you might catch
some of his testimony. You can either do it on
YouTube or look at some of your favorite financial channels.
And catch some of the highlights. Two quotes I want

(05:59):
to give to you what Jerome Paul said, we now
face two sided risks. Now what does that really mean?
Two sided risks. We've had inflationary risks, right obviously, and
now we have economy risks, meaning that, okay, if inflation
is under control, but we've seen the economy cool to
a certain extent that we may be sliding towards a

(06:20):
negative growth, which, as everyone knows, a couple of quarters
in a row negative growth, you're in a recession. Are
we headed that way? So there are two sided risks.
As long as we've been higher for longer, inflation has
has come under control. Beginning of the year not so much.
But now we've seen inflation, as I say, continue its
downward trend, as it has been after it reached its

(06:41):
high of about nine percent a couple of years ago.
But there is the danger that that will lead us
into recession. So the mandate for the Fed right is
low unemployment and growth with the economy. So are they
achieving these things? And that's where we are with Jerome Powell.
The second quote I want to quote to you is

(07:03):
quote labor markets appear to be fully back in balance.
So if we're talking about employment, where are you, You're
driving around, you're listening to me, you're seeing on YouTube,
wherever it is that you get this information. How's your job?
How secure do you feel where you're working. We see
some of the employment numbers of the two hundred and
six thousand that were hired last month, a lot of

(07:25):
them in government. And is that a good thing or
is that what we do when we're going into a recession?
Government ups there hiring and therefore tries to keep the
numbers of people unemployed as low as possible as we
go through whatever it is now. I'm not saying it's
a recession, but in terms of what they're talking about
employment wise, and the people who are hired and working

(07:48):
in these sectors, everybody's a little bit nervous. So that's
why when we talk about these things right now, is
this the best time to buy a house? There's several
different factors in terms of buying houses. Everybody knows one,
you have to have the money to be able to
afford it. Two, there has to be availability of housing,
and there is still a lack of housing opportunity and

(08:11):
availability here in Socow. We talk throughout the year about
all the exodus of people that go from here to
other states, and there's such a big thing. Oh, it's this,
it's that, you know what it really is. People can't
afford a house. That's the bottom line of it. If
you could afford your house, you probably wouldn't leave here
because it's a weatherwise, it's a great place to live.

(08:35):
Just the lifestyle itself, the way California has a different
mentality about itself and how itself presents to the people
that live here. Now. You may not like taxes, you
may not like other certain things that the government does.
Heck I don't like them either. However, when it comes

(08:56):
to those statistics of people leaving California, it's really about
how affordability and we've had such a lack of it now. Conversely,
if you own a home, we always talk about it
your happiest heck and your happiest heck because your house
value has gone up forty percent in the last three years,
four years, that's amazing. You buy for millions now worth

(09:17):
a million four that's pretty good in terms of you
know what your house is worth today and what you
can do with that particular equity. In your home. We
talk about that. We'll talk about it again today. We'll
talk about he locks, we'll talk about seconds, we'll talk
about redoing your first if in fact, rates ever come
down around the six percent rate, if you have a

(09:39):
five percent mortgage, difference is one hundred bucks perth one
hundred thousand. So if it's a you know, three hundred
thousand dollars house, she's gonna pay another three hundred dollars
in mortgage interest in terms of getting equity out of
your house and being able to afford a six percent
versus five percent mortgage. Anyway, I'm Jeff part and your
Voice in the mortgage industry. Really appreciate you listening to
the show, and we will be right you're.

Speaker 2 (10:01):
Listening to the Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton. We'll be
right back with more and just a moment for questions
or comments, send emails to info at melaguponding dot net.
Now back to the Mortgage Voice with your host, Jeff Barton.

Speaker 3 (10:17):
Welcome back, everybody on Jeff Barton, your voice in the
mortgage industry, and thank you very much for listening to
the show. As you listen to us each and every week,
you can catch us on the usual suspects, but also
we have a number of different podcasts that you might
be able to tag into, especially if you already have
de'rely have a list of those, please.

Speaker 1 (10:34):
Yes, I do, jeff It's Apple Podcast, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Spreaker, Stitcher, iHeartMedia, Odyssey, YouTube,
podclips dot Io, and the Mortgage Voice dot Com.

Speaker 3 (10:44):
Mortgage Voice dot com that's our website. Go there. You
can see and hear all the guests that come on
the show and you can contact them directly. And podclips
dot Io I'm pitching them all the time. Great place
to go to get a central way that you can
plug into all your favorite podcasting wants and needs. And
again podclips dot Isle. That's a good place to go. Okay,

(11:06):
So we were talking earlier in a segment about what's
happening generally across a lot of what's going on in
the economy, of what's going on in terms of inflation
versus unemployment versus where are we standing with the interest rates?
A lot of good things. Let's get right to some
news to use section. Okay, this is a quote and
you have to guess who said it. Unless there is

(11:27):
a significant surge in the rate of unemployment, which is
currently not in the forecast. Unless there is a significant
surge in the rate of unemployment, which is currently not
in the forecast. That means, if in fact, we do
get a surgeon unemployment, we will definitely see the Fed
drop interest rates. So where are we? And who said it?

(11:49):
Lawrence Yun That's right. Nobody would have guessed that. He's
the chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. We
go to him pretty much when we're in these transition periods,
and right now we're in one, and we've seen inflation
really cool. We've seen, as Jerome Paul said, the labor
market has really come back into balance. That would mean
that it's pre pandemic levels. And in that particular time period,

(12:13):
where were we What were we doing before pandemic hit
and all the unemployment and then the reemployment and now
we have a balancing out. Another thing to indicate the
balancing out. I don't know if people remember, but I
harped on what a cost of lumber was in the
pandemic and how it had gotten so out of whack.

(12:35):
It it really is four hundred, four hundred and fifty
dollars within that range of a thousand board feet. That's
what lumber costs. So you're building a house, you got
to figure that in. So costs during the recession for
building a house really went out of whack with what
traditionally they were and they went up to sixteen hundred
feet per thousand board feet sixteen hundred dollars when it

(12:59):
was four hundred dollars. So Mortgage News Daily came out
with their chart, and I just thought it was interesting
to look at of what the board feet costs today
in February March of twenty twenty one, sixteen hundred and
forty dollars per thousand square foot of board feet. Today

(13:21):
four hundred and forty dollars per thousand board feet. Now
that's that's right in line with where it was prior
to and this is where it is today. Now. We
don't see a reduction in that number, but we don't
see it really inflationary way above where it should be
where it was during the pre pandemic level. So this
is pretty interesting, and I think there's a lot of

(13:43):
products out there that are going to be like that. There.
Let's see, I have a chart here as well about
some of the things that cost less and have come
down in prices to whereby we're looking and comparing them
to pre pandemic type of prices. Hotel prices have come down,
Rental costs for housing have really come down, and car

(14:06):
sales lower prices for them as well. This shows a
weakness in demand, which is why the actual economy, I mean,
the prices for these three things have come down, and
why we see things like you know, building materials for
housing has also come down. Where will we be in
six months a year really depends on what happens with

(14:27):
government spending, what happens with the inflationary nod Are we
going to go into one, are we're not going to
go into them? We're back to that again? And will
the FED reduce the cost of borrowing inner bank, which
in turn reduces the cost for mortgages, which of course
in turn unlocks all that equity which would really spur demand.

(14:49):
That's really where we're heading. I think, I don't know
if it'll be this year or next year. Just really
depends if we have a change in writer at the
top of the presidential run here and we get Don
Trump in again, well, that will spur certain economic activity
because cutting taxes and you know, cutting regulation. That's always

(15:09):
a Republican way by which they can stimulate. If we
get up a more of a Biden swing into this thing,
we will get more government spending. Both of these guys
are not going to do a thing about the debt
unless we get into the military versus social spending kind
of argument, which I don't know. You know, to me,
when you're bailing people out or you're helping people out

(15:31):
with contracts from the government, what's the difference if you're
spending on one versus another. I think one way to
look at it is that if we had a total
reduction in spending, that would be good long term. But
is it good for me who wants to buy a
house tomorrow. No, not really. I did see an article
today it was incredibly interesting saying that the people who
are gonna pay for the huge burgeoning burgeoning I hate

(15:55):
that word, but the huge debt that the government has
thrown upon us thirty three trillion dollars has gone up
about twenty trillion in the last fifteen years through the
Gulf War war. Yeah, the Gulf War, Afghanistan War, the
tax cuts, you know, all these things have really added

(16:15):
like doubled the deficit. But it's gonna come down to
baby boomers having to pay. Now what does that mean?
I don't know what that means. The article didn't say,
but my suspicion is the taxes on inheritance, taxes on
transferring wealth are all going to go up, and this
is how these particular bills are going to get paid. I,

(16:36):
for one, I'm in that age range. I don't know
exactly what exactly that means for me. Does it mean
my property tax goes up? No, because that's not federal.
What it means would mean a age bracket kind of increase.
I don't know, but I do know according to this article,
that's what it said. So take it for what it is.

(16:56):
Fifty four percent of home prices rise. Okay, so fifty
four percent is the number I said forty percent. Since
twenty nineteen, the average home in the US has risen
in price fifty four percent. That's a lot. That's that's
that's not the million to a million four, that's a

(17:17):
million to a million five. That's incredible, million five forty
As a matter of fact, So those people out there
like myself, maybe this is what the tax is going
to be. It's a tax on unrealized debt, I mean
unrealized the increase in the value of your home. I
was thinking a couple of weeks ago, just about okay,
So if we took half of the increase that people

(17:40):
have gotten in their homes, refinance our homes and paid
it to the government and attax, would that, in fact
buy down the debt? I think it would.

Speaker 4 (17:50):
Uh.

Speaker 3 (17:50):
And I think buying down the debt for our kids
and grandkids is probably the best thing we could do
in order to ensure the US has the economic legs
to be able to withstand whatever. You know, economic issues
come up, whether it's a war, whether it's weather, and
weather is killing us. By the way, I don't know
if anyone was watching Hurricane Barrel or the fires in

(18:12):
southern California. They are just burning really NonStop. And apparently
we have the Fire Department County in my house the
other day and they were saying, look, it's not the
dryness per se, although that's bad. It's the wind. You
can't control the wind, and it's unbelievable. I know from
my own house. I can attest over the last two

(18:32):
or three years when it blows it's blown fifty sixty
miles an hour, and you get caught up in some
kind of fire issue or the dryness and a spark.
That's what's pushing fires through not only here, but in Arizona, Utah.
A number of other states have experienced the same kind
of wildfire. We're lucky we got our insurance, and I
know we talked about the horribleness of having to cut

(18:56):
all our vegetation away from the house and being able to,
you know, get that fire certificate so that we can
bring it to our insurance company and say, hey, look,
we have this fire certificate from a third party country,
a company rather, and they've given us the ability to say, hey, look,
we've done everything we can to prevent fire. Give us
our insurance, which they did. But from the insurance standpoint,

(19:17):
oh my gosh, can you imagine trying to predict the
loss that you're going to get every time there's a fire,
especially in southern California where the population is dense. I mean,
some areas of California, it there's nobody there, so let
it burn, right, But in a lot of areas where
there's a lot of brush, yeah, that's a problem anyway,
I'm Jeff Barton, your voice in the mortgage industry. Really

(19:38):
appreciate you listening to the show, and we'll be right back.

Speaker 2 (19:42):
You're listening to the Mortgage Boys with Jeff Barton. We'll
be right back with more and just a moment for
questions or comments, send emails to info at melagupundings dot net.
Now back to the Mortgage Boys with your host, Jeff Barton.

Speaker 3 (19:58):
Welcome back, everybody. I'm Jeff part In, your voice in
the mortgage industry. Thanks very much for tuning into the
show listening to us on a weekly We come to
you Saturday and Sunday driving around all the things you
do in order to get those days done. Whether it's
you're going to church or you're going to the hardware store,
you're just driving the kids around, find something to do.
We are on casey aaam and FM signals. We're on

(20:20):
the big Hill and we have a signal that carries
all over the place out to Palm Springs and western
Los Angeles County, south to Orange County and North Ino,
but Sam Bernardiner and Riverside Counties. That's our bread and butter,
and we like to bring to you each and every week,
things that will help you decide whether you're going to
buy a house, whether you need to sell a house,

(20:40):
or whether you're just in the market or not in
the market. There's certainly a lot of signs one way
or the other, but I'm not the expert on this area.
The guy I bring on usually to talk about it
is George Gonzales, and I'm lucky enough to have him
again today. He works over at south Land Mortgage.

Speaker 5 (20:55):
George, how are you, hey, Jeff? Thanks for having me on.
I'm doing excellent. How are you there at the beach?

Speaker 3 (21:01):
You know, Nan, you had to throw that out there.
You know, the beach is nice, except sometimes it's a
little cold. To be honest, you'd like to rub that in.

Speaker 6 (21:11):
Oh it's a slap in the face.

Speaker 3 (21:15):
I know, I know, I'm sorry, and that's not true.
I just said that because I knew it all right. So,
speaking of hot now, we've gone through the spring buying season, which,
according to you know several sources, was kind of a bust.
Where are we right now in terms of both inventory
and houses available? And how is the market out there
in the ie?

Speaker 6 (21:34):
Well?

Speaker 5 (21:34):
Those are those are awesome questions. So we can start
with the inventory out here in the Inland Empire, you know, Ontario, Rench, Cucamonga, Fontana,
rialto Samernandino. All these areas over here are okay, I
mean it's there, there are some there's more inventory, let's
put it that way. Cause there's more inventory. I've seen

(21:55):
in the recent a few price reductions on properties. Okay,
longer times to sell, which means they're you know, more
days on the market before. As you know, the last
year two years, they were flying off within fifteen twenty days,
right sold. Now I think we're up to somewhere averaging
forty five to seventy five days on the market, depending

(22:17):
on you know, on the area.

Speaker 3 (22:18):
Sure, sure the hot areas out there are ware too, George.

Speaker 5 (22:23):
The hot areas are the northern part of Fontana area
and the northern part of Rancho Cucamonga area.

Speaker 3 (22:30):
Okay, And that's because the houses are great, and the
school system's great and all the infrastructure that you need
for you know, that kind of price. What what are
the prices they're getting for those houses out there.

Speaker 5 (22:40):
So if you're looking, let's say, a standard three bedrooms,
two bath in northern Ranch Cucamonga's probably in the eighth
and fifty thousand range to start the North Fontana, which
has the same quality of the houses, maybe a little
bit newer, same sizes and all that good stuff. You're
looking somewhere in the range of probably seven hundred thousand ish,

(23:02):
so about a set at fifty about one hundred hundred
and fifty thousand differents after the freeway that the freeway
divides the values, right.

Speaker 3 (23:09):
Right, Okay, all right, So now we talk about the
real estate, the real estate inventory and why it's gone up,
and that the affordability index here in southern California is terrible.
What what is the magic mix that we have enough
houses on the market where prices come down, yet at
the same time when we have lower interest rates we

(23:30):
don't see a rush back into the market pushing the
prices back up. Is there sort of a then diagram
I can send people to to figure this out.

Speaker 5 (23:39):
Well, the thing about it is, you know, this is
the first time in history, as we all know, where
interest rates are high as well as housing prices are high.
Typically it's you know one or the other, right, yeah,
you know, and balance it out.

Speaker 6 (23:53):
A little bit.

Speaker 5 (23:54):
So at this point, the thing that I'm looking for
is I'm telling my buyers is you know, had a
few of them waiting for such a long time, and
then finally I said, look, let's let's not wait anymore.
Let's just jump on something and get you somewhere in
something that you need now for your family, and you know,
later on on at the line, hopefully when the rates
come down, we can drop your your payment, which will

(24:16):
you know, you'll still get the house you want, except
you're just paying a little more upfront for it, but
you'll get it back in the long run.

Speaker 3 (24:23):
And are you suggesting to people that they put more
of a down payment so that the payment between a
higher price house one you know they're paying with seven
percent mortgage or they're about thirty year fixed rate, or
are you just saying, look, let's just get in at
the cheapest amount and go for the longer term payment
like a forty.

Speaker 5 (24:42):
Year And again, well, those are the two options. I
give them. It's case by case, you know, and I
just let them. I present them the payments in comparison
with each other, and you know, and they make the
decision on what's best for them. And so you know,
not every obviously, not every scenario, it's perfect for the
next for the next person. So yeah, that's basically I do.

(25:04):
If they can afford it and they're comfortable, why.

Speaker 6 (25:07):
Are they waiting.

Speaker 5 (25:08):
They have the money for the down payment, there's no
reason to wait. You know, you need to buy a house.
You need somewhere to live, right, It's not like a car,
It's not like you know, a TV. This is something
that you know you're going to be living in. And
you know it's hard for people to get that because
of the last what we just went through, all their
families and friends bought them at three percent and throwing

(25:28):
it in their face, and so you know, that's what's
really really been the hiccup is the people that got
the low rate who are bragging, and the people who
feel left out don't know if it's time or if
they should wait their turn for three percent rate again,
which probably will never come.

Speaker 3 (25:43):
What is the hangover time on this three percent thing? Now,
we are almost two years away from having low interest rates,
and we've certainly seen seven percent pretty consistently for the
past I don't know, twelve to eighteen months. When do
people forget and say, you know what seven percent for that,
let's go.

Speaker 7 (26:00):
Get it right and that's where I think we're about
right now. Okay, As a matter of fact, the chief
bernanke today, I think I heard him on the online
saying that they're asking him what's going on. I said,
you know, they said, you see, we're well into inflation here.

Speaker 5 (26:17):
People are struggling people of this.

Speaker 6 (26:19):
What are you.

Speaker 5 (26:20):
Guys waiting for? You haven't lowered the interest rate? That
was one of the suggestions thrown at him, and he
basically said, I'm not going to talk about that. I'm
not giving nobody no no needs of which way I'm
going to lean it to. So it was just basically
shut up, is what he told them.

Speaker 3 (26:34):
Yeah, I saw some of that. Powell speaking, Jerome Powell
speaking at the Senate Subcommittee or wherever he goes to
give his biannual meeting notice, and what's going on at
the Fed and how they're planning to I think what
we're going to see is probably September. That's what everybody's saying.

(26:54):
Seventy five percent chance they lower Fed interest rates. And
this you and I both know the FED interest rate
is not the more urges rate, but they tend to
follow one another. If the FED rate goes down, mortgage
gentest rates can probably go down to so September, and
so I don't know if that is what people here
out there in the world. I mean, I watch it
because I watch Bloomberg every day, But I don't know
if your average person out there who's looking to buy

(27:17):
a house listens to that stuff. What are you telling them?

Speaker 5 (27:19):
Well, this, as a matter of fact, this last month,
you're the vouchers came out for the first round of
vouchers came out for the Dream for All programs.

Speaker 3 (27:28):
Oh you're kidding. Did you know how many of your
people got one?

Speaker 5 (27:31):
I got out of eight applications, one of my clients
got one. Great that they're actually looking for a house
right now as we speak. They're going to go see
some properties tonight with one of my agents. But yeah,
so you're gonna notice in the next thirty sixty ninety
days there should be more closings right now because they
got these vouchers out there for these people to use them.
So those might, you know, take in an account for

(27:53):
some of the more coming upcoming sales that are about
to happen.

Speaker 3 (27:56):
Okay, loan programs, give me a quick rundown of what
loan programs are you currently using. I know you talked
a little about the forty year, but what else are
you doing?

Speaker 5 (28:06):
Just the conventional thirty years are the most popular. Twenty
percent down, ten percent down, five percent down, you know,
whatever they can can come up with in their credit score,
you know. But there's no fancy loans out there, there's right,
you know, that's basically straight income docs. If you're self employed,
then you know, we can figure it out with twelve

(28:28):
months deposit bank statements to find some non QM financing.
Different there's other different ways for self employed, but if
you're employed with W two, the standard is going to
be either the FAHA the thirty years, or the conventional
thirty years or the VA thirty years because those are
the most popular loans.

Speaker 3 (28:45):
So if you're looking for a low down payment, it's FAHA.
And if you're looking for maybe you know, the best
rate possible, you're still going with a thirty year fixed.
You're just extending out the time you're going to pay
it from thirty to forty. That's correct, okay, And where
are we on all that? What does a forty year
payment look like in terms of percentage wise? Are you
looking at like still six and a half to seven

(29:06):
percent on the forty year.

Speaker 5 (29:08):
That's the thirty to forty I believe I haven't priced
went out lately because there's only a few banks.

Speaker 3 (29:14):
That are doing that right, that's true, and.

Speaker 5 (29:16):
So I haven't priced went out in the recent but
they're a little bit higher, a little bit probably in
the mid sevens.

Speaker 3 (29:22):
I see. Okay, hey, listen, we're up against it. That's
a quick ten minutes. I love having you on. You
got a lot of good information, perfect person to give
a call. If you could let people know how they
can get in touch with you, that'd be great.

Speaker 1 (29:34):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (29:34):
My direct number is area code nine O nine nine
zero zero nine five six ' five excellent.

Speaker 3 (29:41):
George, thanks very much for coming on. Always appreciated.

Speaker 5 (29:44):
Thanks Jeff appreciated too.

Speaker 3 (29:46):
Thank you very much. That's George Gonzales from Southland Mortgage.
I'm Jeff Martin, your voice in the mortgage industry. Be
right back.

Speaker 2 (29:53):
You're listening to the Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton. We'll
be right back with more and just a moment. Per
questions or comments, send emails to info at Melbu Fundings
dot net. Now back to the Mortgage Boys with your
host Jeff Barton.

Speaker 3 (30:10):
Welcome back, everybody. I'm Jeff bart and your voice in
the mortgage industry. Thanks very much for tuning into the show,
for listening to us. Each and every week we bring
to you some information that's going to help you in
your decision making process. I know we're getting to the
middle of the summer. I know spring buying season is over.
I know that you probably want a house, but you
want to wait until September when the FED might drop rates. Yes,

(30:32):
I know, however, there is always a good time to buy,
and every day is another day that you have an
opportunity to go out and find something you really like
in the marketplace, find a great lender, and find somebody
to be able to help you guide you through this process.
And when rates drop, you can always go back and refinance.
I know that's a staid and true explanation of much

(30:54):
as you do in the marketplace, but it is true.
I mean, the opportunities are still out there. We will
see inventories grow and we will see mortgage interest rates fall.
This is what's going to happen. Now, when it happens,
I don't know. I'm not the prognosticator, but I do
have somebody on the phone right now who may have
some answers. Jennifer Martinez from Sierra Pacific Mortgage joins us. Now, Jennifer,

(31:18):
how are you?

Speaker 8 (31:19):
I am doing well, Jeff, how are you?

Speaker 3 (31:21):
I'm pretty good?

Speaker 1 (31:22):
Well.

Speaker 3 (31:22):
You heard that bloated in introduction. Where do you think
we are right now in this cycle? I mean, I
don't know. You probably caught a lot of Jerome Poll's
explanation on the hill today. So what do you think?

Speaker 8 (31:36):
I mean, I do think that things are going to
get better, right, you know, I have seen production pick up,
so that's an awesome thing. Yeah. So you know, I
think that probably the worst is behind us, right, and
so we're looking towards brighter days, hopefully sooner than later, right,
ex And.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
No, I agree, and I think the optimism is good.
I mean, we in the mortgage business have been hammered
the past three years, and knowing that business is going
to get better when interest rates drop. We always look
towards the unemployment numbers and those have not been great.
I mean they've been rising unemployment, but employment numbers are
coming down. These are the kind of things that we say, Okay,

(32:18):
we're happy that mortgage intro drates are going to be lowered,
but some people are going to be out of a job.
So what are we looking at in terms of product
from Sierra that we might be able to say can
handle both of those possible outcomes.

Speaker 8 (32:33):
Well, so you know, the California Housing Authority rolled out
the Dream for All. Yep, they finally have issued the vouchers.
So I think that you know, with the sixteen hundred vouchers,
you know we're going to see a lot of first
time home buyers get into homes. You know, the saying
you date the right, you marry the house. I think
that's absolutely true. I don't think that people should be

(32:54):
sitting around waiting for these rates to drop. I mean,
if you can afford the mortgage payment at the higher
interest rate, I mean I would definitely get out there
and you know, get into homes because once those rates drop,
it's going to be a seating frenzy again. So definitely
have an opportunity to get into a house. I would
jump at it, and then you know, refinance later down

(33:17):
the line when rates do drop down.

Speaker 3 (33:20):
Now, we got a ton of equity in most properties, right,
I mean I have in my house. I'm sure that
you have in your house. Most people who own a
home are very happy because they've seen, you know, obviously
their equity rise by about fifty percent in the last
five years. What are you telling people who want to
tap into that but not mess around with their three
percent mortgage?

Speaker 8 (33:39):
I mean, some of them, you know, do the line
of credit, right, get a home equity line of credit
and you know, try to pay off your you know,
because credit card dad is at the maximum it's been
in like twenty years, yep. So I think that if
you can tap into that equity, then do so. I mean,
in all, see, if you look at what your credit

(34:02):
card payments are compared to you know, maybe a little
bit higher of an interest rate, and yeah, you are
going to have to get rid of that three percent,
but you're also going to get out get rid of
the thirty three percent interest rate for your credit card debt.
So you've got to look at that, and maybe it
makes sense, you know, if you can't do a home

(34:24):
equity line of credit, just get rid of all that
credit card debt.

Speaker 3 (34:28):
So I agree, I agree with that one hundred percent.
I mean, you know, the credit card debt has been
choking on us for some time. And how do you
wean people off from spending money. I mean, that's the
real issue here, not that they shouldn't spend money on
a house, but should you spend money on I don't know,
some frivolous items that maybe not right now. I mean this.

Speaker 8 (34:47):
Is one hundred percent yeah. I mean it's so if
you can get rid of those payments, I mean, it
may be worth getting into like a six and a
half interest rate on your first mortgage, right. So it's
and sometimes like they have to use their credit cards
because inflation is still high yep, So they're using it

(35:07):
to go buy grocery. You know, that's double than what
they were paying two years ago for grocery. So I
mean it's kind of a double edged sword.

Speaker 3 (35:15):
Right.

Speaker 8 (35:15):
But if you have that equity, I mean I would
probably maybe contemplate getting, you know, refinancing your house, tapping
into that equity and getting rid of some of those
debts that you don't necessarily need.

Speaker 3 (35:27):
I agree. I think debt is killing us, and I
think the federal debt is killing us more. And at
some point somebody is going to say stop or we're
going to have an implosion. And the things that are
worth something now aren't going to be worth the same things,
and these are a problem. However, specifically today, what are
give me an example, a couple of the programs that
you have over at Sierra to be able to you know,

(35:48):
help people either first time home buyers or in you know,
thirty year fixed rate. What are you all offering? What's
the best programs?

Speaker 8 (35:57):
Well, so, I mean, I we just rolled out with
this h W two Waggourner Express and basically it's a
streamline It's a streamline loan. So we basically there's a
couple buttons that you can press in our system and
we will pull a finicity report which basically pulls the

(36:20):
like an income verification as well as an asset verification.
I'm underwriting those loans in twenty four hours, you know.
It's a one two touch type of loan to where
we're getting them closed, you know, in less than twenty
one days. And for purposes, I mean, that's what I'm
getting a lot of is a twenty one day close.
So it definitely streamlines the process. I mean, we do faha, right,

(36:46):
we do manual underwrites with faha. So let's say you've
got not so great credit, you know, we could definitely
work with you with certain guidelines and get you into
those homes. You know, we also have we rolled out
with thanks statement programs, a twelve month and a twenty

(37:07):
four month program, as well as a DSCR, which is
the debt service really for the you know, the investment properties.
Right my investment pricing and second home pricing is off
the charts, it's on fire. So I'm doing a lot
of that, doing a lot of purchase purchases for investors.

Speaker 3 (37:30):
Okay, that's good. No, let's just sit down on that
for a second to give us an overall really specific
picture as to your investment type purchases that you're saying.
Is it the rate on fire or is just the
availability of funds or ease of transaction? What is it?

Speaker 8 (37:48):
I mean, it's the rate in all honesty, it's pricing
better than actually a primary residence right now.

Speaker 3 (37:54):
And that's unbelievable. That's great.

Speaker 8 (37:56):
Yes, and so you know, and it's a streamline process.
So there are things that you know you can do. Yes,
you you know, we're putting the tent down, but you know,
for for people that want to build up their portfolio,
it's a great product to get into when you're you know,

(38:19):
getting a loan for seven in and eighth yeah, opposed
to seven and a half when you're purchasing a primary residence.
So it's definitely if you have the money and you
want to build your portfolio, it's a great product.

Speaker 3 (38:33):
It's it's almost mind boggling. I'm thinking, well, why would
the bank do that? So I'm trying to think of
questions to ask you about. You know, Okay, so you
have this ability to be able to offer a cheaper
rate on a second home. Is that because the second
homes have more value? Or if we have a downturn
in the recession, these will get unloaded quickly so you
don't have them on your books. What are you thinking

(38:55):
at in terms of you know, the reason.

Speaker 8 (38:56):
Why that would be, I think Wall Street has an
appetite for them.

Speaker 3 (39:00):
Okay, that's right.

Speaker 8 (39:02):
So I definitely feel like, you know, that's a huge
part of it. And you know, second homes are usually
the ones that get offloaded first, right uposting your primary
or an investment property right right. So you know, it's

(39:22):
a great product. It's a great way to build wealth.

Speaker 3 (39:25):
I agree one hundred percent. And I also like the
fact that you know, the rates are so attractive. You know,
if you're in the business and this is what you do,
absolutely you'd look at this because otherwise you go in
non QM. You know, all these investors that are paying
anywhere from eight to twelve percent in terms of a
yearly just to get into an investment property. Now you've
got something now that's a second home, so you're not

(39:47):
looking at it necessarily as an investment, but that's probably
what you're selling these people to.

Speaker 8 (39:53):
Well, so the second home order an investment probably, So
that's pricing is yes, it's just it's I mean I've
brought in probably a dozen this week, right right, I'm
sure purchases with this product, so I mean, yeah, there's
definitely deals being done.

Speaker 3 (40:12):
So absolutely, well, they should give you a call. You
want to shout out a way by which people can
get in touch with you, that'd be great.

Speaker 8 (40:18):
Yeah, absolutely, So you can either reach out to me
via email at Jennifer dot Martinez at SS Sam Pias
and Paul msmmryciasncat dot com or give me a call
at six one nine five zero two zero three seven seven.

Speaker 3 (40:37):
Excellent. Well, thank you very much. We've come to the end.
Of our little talk here, and I really appreciate that's
a lot of good information. Thank you well.

Speaker 8 (40:45):
I appreciate you, Jess. It's always a pleasure always.

Speaker 3 (40:48):
Thank you very much. Jennifer, we'll talk soon.

Speaker 8 (40:51):
Okay, you have a great day.

Speaker 3 (40:52):
You too. That's Jennifer Martinez from Sierra Pacific Mortgage. I'm
Jeff Parton, your voice in the mortgage industry. We'll be
right back listening to.

Speaker 2 (41:00):
The Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton. We'll be right back
with more and just a moment for questions or comments,
send emails to info at Melbuthumdings dot net. Now back
to the Mortgage Boys with your host, Jeff Barton.

Speaker 3 (41:15):
Welcome back, everybody. I'm Jeff Martin, your voice in the
mortgage industry. Thanks very much for tuning into the show.
Each week we come to you, we bring you this
information that we hope you act on. Sometimes it's a
wait and hold, sometimes it's a you gotta do it
right now. We are in and a time period between
the spring buying season in the middle of the summer

(41:36):
where people gotta go gotta do it now, and people
who can wait are going to wait to see if
September is the time when the Fed drops interest rates
and hopefully the mortgage interest rates will follow. I've got
the best person. He comes to the show all the time.
Charles Giscomb joins us again from United Security Financial to
give us some answers as to really what direction you

(41:56):
might be able to go, what kind of loan products
are out there? Charles? How are you?

Speaker 6 (42:00):
I'm doing good, Jeff, thanks for having me again, my friend.

Speaker 3 (42:02):
Thank you, buddy, I appreciate it. And where are we
in this market? It's so confusing. I'm watching Jerome Powell
give testimony, I watch people bark at him for two hours.
I'm like, I still don't really know what he's doing.
How we're going to get there in order to satisfy
so much demand and yet so little product, as well

(42:23):
as mortgage interest rates which are scaring a lot of
people out of California and maybe some other parts of
the country as well. Give us your overview as to
what's happening. That'd be great, absolutely. Well.

Speaker 6 (42:35):
You know, an interest rate today probably about seven point
four on a thirty year, ye six seven on a
fifteen year, so you know, they're still steadily where they are.
They haven't moved too much. They'll fluctuate up and down,
you know, to increasing twelve basis points over the last
seven days. But Jeff, guess what. The one thing that

(42:56):
that doesn't matter with that is that due to limited supply,
the home prices hold. There's values. So the reality of
it is is with that happening, the values are still there,
which always means for Jeff and I when we're talking
to everybody out there, get in the game. There's still
value in the game. You still can make money. You're

(43:19):
not losing money. Obviously, our rational head says, we don't
service upside down debt, but you're not going to because
the market's hold insteady And so for traditional lending right now,
there are no really great interest rates or great interest
rates that we were used to two years ago. There's
no more lows twos and threes and fours and five

(43:42):
and sixes barely, but we are still back to where
we work. You still can get into the game. And
even if a traditional rate is not attritional mortgage is
not where your structure is, there are many other alternative
loan programs that can help you get into this game,
still help you have an opportunity to make some money.

(44:02):
Or at least to get into a steady investment so
that when things do correct themselves, you will be able
to make money and you won't lose money.

Speaker 3 (44:11):
So these cycles and where we are now, we're not
really quite sure. But Powell said today, he said, hey, look,
we are in a normal employment cycle, meaning that we
are pre pandemic. Normal employment cycle meaning that you're going
to get numbers that are either going to indicate the
economy is growing because more jobs are coming into the market,

(44:34):
or that the unemployment rate goes up which means less jobs.
And that really affects how we look at a borrower,
whether they got a job obviously right, But in the
realm of investment properties, what are we looking at different
than a traditional loan in a thirty year fixed rate
from Fanny may.

Speaker 6 (44:54):
Well, you know what, although the economy, Jeff has proving
itself to be more resilient than expected, despite what everyone
else is saying and the uncertainties, I feel like the
investment market and getting into it will Jeff have mentioned,
is probably a better involved compared to the traditional way.

(45:18):
There are a lot of investment property programs, fixing slipp programs,
you know, hold in rent DSCR loans. These are all
loans that individuals can get into without providing the full
traditional mortgage structure in both.

Speaker 3 (45:35):
Right, that's what I'm getting at, right exactly, and that.

Speaker 6 (45:38):
Means and that means two years of tax returns or
W two's I mean sixty days of bank statements, which
is two months, I mean thirty days of paycheck steps
which means four weeks to or bi weekly or so basically,
when you have that, when when you're required to have that,
that is a traditional loan. What Jeff is referring to
is the ability to get into the investment market if

(45:59):
you have capital that will allow you to use less
documentation and in most cases what they call it is
a no doc. I know people are not you know,
used the no docks were a long time ago. There
was a no dock owned and everyone was using it
and then it went away. Well now they're back. They're
called stated stated loans, and they're called no doc loans,
and real quick, I'll tell you they don't require W

(46:22):
two's paycheck stubs, tax returns. They're only required that you
show the money that you have in the bank as
a down payment or reserves, and it doesn't matter if
the money is a seasoned or not. You can utilize
those funds even if they got into your account the
day before. As long as they come from you, your
business account and your personal account, you're allowed to utilize

(46:43):
those funds as your down payment and reserves. The other
thing is you can close in an entity name. What
an entity name? What we mean is an LLC or
a corporation, whether it's an ES corp or a C corp,
or even a trust. As long as it's not in
a revocable trust, you can close it in a revocable trust.
The benefits of these is to create protection for yourself.

(47:06):
It also acts as as the guarante for are on
the loan, so now your bills come in those entity names.
The biggest and the biggest value added service to a
loan like this is that these mortgages and liabilities don't
show up on your personal name. Where you can do
that at I don't know, but we can do it here, Jess.

(47:27):
And the beautiful thing is we would love to provide
some of those things to individuals.

Speaker 3 (47:31):
What kind of a down payment and credit score you
need on the loan like that?

Speaker 6 (47:36):
Surprisingly, obviously there are some programs that on these programs
that will start anywhere from sixty five percent LTV, which
is thirty five down, seventy five, twenty five down on up.
There are some of these programs that we can get
you into an investment property or fixing flip with ten
percent down, same type of loans. So there are many

(47:56):
different loan products out there depending on where you are. Now.
Jeff said, it's it's important for the credit scores for these, okay. So,
but the minimum credit score that we can work in
and I'm gonna say this, and I know the phones
are gonna go crazy, Jeff, but we can get into
some of these loans dependent on the LTV with a
five eighty FYCO score.

Speaker 3 (48:18):
Okay, So five to eighty non QM, you must have
what thirty five percent down? Is that the way they'll
do it?

Speaker 6 (48:25):
Well in this loan you can have, yeah, thirty five
percent or thirty percent down, okay. And if you have
a fycle score above six fifty, it's twenty five percent down.

Speaker 3 (48:35):
Yeah. Well that's really good. And I'm sure if you
have a seven seven forty in that range, you get
even less down.

Speaker 6 (48:41):
You get less down, you get a better interest rate.
And you have more options.

Speaker 3 (48:46):
So all of this is designed to really help people
with you know, obviously challenges or they're looking at maybe
not a traditional type loan, but something to get into,
sink their teeth into, and with the different options that
they have, it becomes an attractive property, an attractive loan
for them to get into.

Speaker 6 (49:06):
Absolutely, Jeff, it's an attractive loan. And it's also built
for individuals once again that don't have traditional financial structure
or our traditional job. Someone that's hold every day working
for themselves, it's more importantly to keep their money as
opposed to you know, it's not what you make, it's
what you keep. And in a lot of cases, you know,
if you're not providing your tax returns and different stuff,

(49:28):
the entrepreneurs look for these type of loans so they
don't have to provide that because I'll tell you, if
you're an entrepreneur, most times you're writing everything off and
so your income on tax return statements don't look as high,
even though you may be doing very well for yourself.
But guess what will always look good your bank statements,
whether they're a commercial or personal, whether they're an LLC

(49:49):
or personal, your bank statements show the real deposits that's
coming through. And that's a beautiful thing because as long
as you can show the ATR which we always talk
about here, which is the ability to repay right, you
can show that if there's a loan for you out there,
and this is a great loan that an individual who
doesn't have the traditional struct financial structure can get into
a loan. A lot of people feel like it's worth

(50:11):
the down payment to have the path the least resistance
to get involved with this market still and still having
these properties have value and not losing or being upside down.

Speaker 3 (50:20):
Listen, we got about a minute left on the refinance
of a loan like this, especially if it's an LLC.
Any issues would that come up later if somebody wants
to get out of the loan they're in and maybe
get a lower interest rate on a similar type loan
and say less than a year, any issues.

Speaker 6 (50:36):
With that, No, there is really no issues. The one
thing about it is a lot of lenders that were
utilized they will have a prepayment penalty because they'll have
a lot of fees. They don't have a lot of
fees up front, so they're looking at you to stay
in that loan longer so that the interest payments that
they make are the money that they make. The beautiful
thing is they give you the option to buy the
prepayment penalty down to twelve months or less, and so

(50:57):
that way you're in this property. You use it has
a strategy to get into a property, but within twelve
months or less, you can refinance into a traditional loan
or another loan that may have a better interest rate
when the interest rates correct themselves. So this is another
great strategy for individuals to get into loans from a
strategic standpoint on a short term strategy, and then in

(51:18):
the longer term strategy, when the interest rates do correct themselves,
you can refinance into a traditional loan.

Speaker 7 (51:23):
Wee.

Speaker 6 (51:23):
You can finance into another loans similar to this with
a lower interest rate. It's all there for you. All
you have to do is reach out and make sure
that you get an informed.

Speaker 3 (51:33):
Loan off exactly like yourself. And speaking of that, could
you shout out a way by which people might be
able to get in touch with you. That'd be great.

Speaker 6 (51:40):
I sure will absolutely, Jeff, you can reach me at
seven two five five, seven, seven eight seven sixty one
again at seven two five five seven seven eight seven
sixty one, or you can reach me at c gets
goom at USF Wholesale dot net.

Speaker 3 (51:55):
Charles, thanks very much once again coming on doing a
great job. Appreciate it.

Speaker 6 (51:59):
Thank you Jeff for forward.

Speaker 3 (52:01):
Thank you very much that Charles gets going from United
Security Financial on Jeff part and your voice in the
mortgage industry, and we'll see you next time.

Speaker 2 (52:08):
You're listening to the Mortgage Voice with Jeff Barton. For
more on today's topic, visit www dot melible funding dot net.

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(54:44):
more in dividends from your policy than the interest the
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years two to twenty plus Each year the bank ads.

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Life?

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Speaker 9 (57:50):
NBC News Radio, I'm Lisa Carton. Republicans are criticizing Vice
President Kamala Harris for her position on Israel and the
war in Gaza. In an interview with CNN State of
the Union, Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton accused Harris of equivocating
between Israel and Hamas.

Speaker 11 (58:07):
What we should do is back Israel to the hilt,
not scramble behind the scenes to try to stop Israel
from retaliating appropriately.

Speaker 9 (58:14):
Senator Cotton said having Harris as president would make it
harder to strike a peace deal in the region and
would embolden Iran, calling Harris a dangerous liberal. Harris last
week met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nett and Yahoo
and express serious concern about the effect Israel's offensive in
Gaza is having on Palestinian civilians. The Democratic governor of

(58:36):
Maryland is criticizing members of his party who publicly demanded
President Biden end his re election campaign. Maryland Governor Wes
Moore told ABC's This Week Biden deserved better than people
around him publicly calling on him to step aside, although
he did agree Biden should end his candidacy, and I.

Speaker 10 (58:54):
Believe that you can have proper conversations and tell people
the truth and be able to tell them what you're
hearing without also then turning around and publicly then trying.

Speaker 3 (59:03):
To embarrass them.

Speaker 9 (59:04):
Biden exited the election last week following growing pressure from
his own allies. Democrats have now coalesced around Vice President
Harris to be the nominee. Vice President Harris is heading
to Houston this week for the funeral of Representative Sheila
Jackson Lee. Harris will attend the service for her longtime
friend and sorority sister. The two were both members of

(59:24):
the country's first historically black sorority, Alpha Kappa Alpha, and
frequently worked on shared legislative issues in Congress. Jackson Lee
passed away earlier this month after battling cancer. At the Olympics,
the US men's basketball team cruise to a one ten
eighty four victory over Serbia in their first game. You're
listening to the latest on NBC News Radio.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
NBC News on CACAA Lomlada sponsored by Teamsters Local nineteen
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Speaker 7 (01:00:04):
Praise the Lord, Praise the Lord, Praise the Lord, and
God bless you in the