RenMac

RenMac

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

Episodes

June 27, 2025 35 mins
RenMac discusses the case to be made for the next Fed chair, the latest on crude oil, the Middle East, July’s seasonal strength, the perceived disconnect between markets and the economy and the reality of that perception, along with a suggested golf handicap adjustment.
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RenMac walks through this week’s Fed decision, Iran’s exit ramp, weakness in housing, the Byrd Bath, RMs 20% allocation to commodities, the overbought condition in oil and the momentum in financials.
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RenMac Discusses TDS (Tariff Derangement Syndrome) giving way to IDF (Israeli Defense Forces), message out of real-rates, the employment picture, trajectory of the Fed, breakout in precious metals and Tuesday’s Senate bill on stablecoin.
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RenMac discusses the latest payroll print and why the Fed may use it to stay on the sidelines, the improvement in small-cap performance, the call between Xi and Trump, and the implications of the fallout between Musk and Trump.
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RenMac discuss the latest developments on the tariff front, the administration’s multiple avenues to pursue their trade agenda, the slowing in the labor and housing markets, and the nuance behind the adage of “sell in May and go away.”
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RenMac talks government bonds, the divergence in the $ and rates, the global repudiation of government debt, and the implications, Bitcoin’s new high, Trump’s tax bill, and the importance of momentum from this point forward.  
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RenMac double-clicks on bond market’s message, GOP reconciliation, deGraaf’s Thrust and implications, Gold’s seasonality, energy implications and Knicks vs Celtics
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May 9, 2025 38 mins
RenMac dives into the latest on tariffs, Powell’s position, the RenMac Retest Rule, Communion suggestions for the new Pope, how the markets and the economy are similar but different, and the definition of a Knickerbocker
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RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mail bag, and Jeff’s long-shot Derby play.
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RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.
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April 18, 2025 35 mins
RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-bag.



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RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.
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April 4, 2025 49 mins
RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.
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March 28, 2025 36 mins
RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.
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March 21, 2025 40 mins
RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.
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March 14, 2025 41 mins
RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding market tops.
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RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.
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February 28, 2025 26 mins
Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022.  Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.
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February 21, 2025 30 mins
RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.
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February 14, 2025 34 mins
RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.
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