RenMac

RenMac

Stock market commentary from Wall St thought leaders in strategy, economics, technical analysis and policy. Disclaimer .......... This Podcast Audio Show has been prepared by Renaissance Macro Research, LLC (“RenMac”), an affiliate of Renaissance Macro Securities, LLC. This Podcast Audio Show is for distribution only as may be permitted by law. It is published solely for information purposes; it is not an advertisement nor is it a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this document. The information is not intended to be a complete statement or summary of the markets, economy or other developments referred to in the Podcast Audio Show. Any opinions expressed in this Podcast Audio Show may change without notice. Any statements contained in this Podcast Audio Show attributed to a third party represent RenMac's interpretation of the data, information and/or opinions provided by that third party either publicly or through a subscription service, and such use and interpretation have not been reviewed by the third party. Nothing in this Podcast Audio Show constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation is suitable or appropriate to an investor’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. Investments involve risks, and investors should exercise prudence and their own judgment in making their investment decisions. The value of any investment may decline due to factors affecting the securities markets generally or particular industries. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither RenMac nor any of its directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss (including investment loss) or damage arising out of the use of all or any of the information. Any information stated in this Podcast Audio Show is for information purposes only and does not represent valuations for individual securities or other financial instruments. Different assumptions by RenMac or any other source may yield substantially different results. The analysis contained in this document is based on numerous assumptions and are not all inclusive. Copyright © Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. 2019. All rights reserved. All material presented in this Podcast Audio Show, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Renaissance Macro Research, LLC. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Renaissance Marco Research, LLC.

Episodes

May 20, 2022 15 min
RenMac discusses why the data doesn’t support recession narrative, the low but rising level of unemployment claims, the risk of a dovish policy pivot later this year, how healthcare and energy perform post-peak inflation, and why the party primary results will impact the 2022 and 2024 elections.
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RenMac crew discusses the inflation data, the historical impact of peak inflation on markets and sectors, a first-hand look at the baby shortage formula and the impact on midterms.
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The RenMac team discusses April’s “goldilocks” employment report, why wage growth will moderate, how Powell’s comments this week increase the chance of a soft landing, energy industry and SPR politics, market turmoil and what to watch next week.
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The RenMac team discusses the latest GDP report, healthy customer demand suggests rebound in Q2, equity market efficiency, strong compensation growth impacting next week’s Fed meeting, impact of Trump’s potential Twitter return, COVID’s impact on Biden Fed nominees, FANG oversold conditions, and the impact of a strengthening dollar.
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The RenMac team discusses Bullard’s balloon, Fed’s likely three 50 bps hike pace, recession probability declining in face of economic momentum, parallels to 94 and 04, gap downs more prevalent in downtrends, pickup in defensive areas, Schumer dashes marijuana enthusiasts Hight hopes, and Congress retuning to a crowded calendar.
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The RenMac team discusses Brainard’s comments on reducing the balance sheet and the market’s reaction, next week’s inflation report and how the Fed will respond, reallocation towards healthcare away from tech, immigration debate holds up COVID relief, Rs feeling better about ’22 and ’24, will the growth last, and the corporate credit market is remaining accommodative.
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The RenMac team discusses the hot payroll number, climbing participation rate, Fed can go longer without breaking the economy, misunderstood inverted yield curve, 3 month and 30 year is a better signal, deterioration in late cycle sectors, peak inflation in next three months, Biden blurring the distinction between income and wealth.
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The RenMac Team discusses inflation historically being an energy problem, broadening inflation, Powell backing 50 bps hikes now, Biden’s economic assumptions in the budget request, Republicans registering voters at gas stations, COVID concerns subsiding, 20-day numbers looking good but not great, BB vs. BBB spreads narrowing, differentiation determining winners and losers.
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The RenMac team discuss the impact of Raskin’s withdrawal from the Fed, the dreaded death cross, staying out of the stew, trucker’s rise on Fed meeting, how the recession call is premature, and Powell’s challenges with landing the inflation plane.
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The RenMac team discusses the muted market reaction to sky high inflation, what the two and ten year yields are telling us, bond market history of fighting tightening, Biden blaming inflation on Russia, pre-pandemic conditions returning, bears still outnumbering bulls in terms of sentiment, noise around the trends, withdraw of liquidity impacting marginal assets, Powell on tap next week.
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The RenMac team discusses the solid payroll numbers, confirmation that we’re in an inflationary boom, Biden’s failure to reset at the State of the Union, administration supporting polices that make inflation worse not better, and a lot of bearish sentiment but little momentum at the moment.
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February 18, 2022 17 min
RenMac discusses the impact of the Fed hiking into a booming economy, the dwindling prospects of Raskin’s confirmation, peak inflation but shifting into services, geopolitical tensions and their impact on gold and energy, Iranian deal implications and the convenient political timing on mask removals before Biden’s State of the Union.
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February 11, 2022 18 min
RenMac team discusses opening Wordle words, NYC traffic, the broadening of inflation, permission for the Fed to go 50 bps in March, consumers resistance to higher prices, the counter-cyclical impact of short rates and oil, pandemic politics, and the unusual leadership of banks at this part in the cycle.
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The RenMac team discusses the big jobs surprise amid Omicron fears, economic momentum for more aggressive rate hikes, the impact of a 49-50 Senate for Ds without Lujan on Biden’s Fed nominees and legislative agenda, international bonds breaking out, potential for asset deflation as the Fed fights inflation, cracks in concept capital, why apathy is better than emotion when picking stocks.
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January 28, 2022 16 min
The RenMac team discusses what a potential Russian invasion could mean for energy markets and inflation, compensation growth exceeding productivity growth, how returns drive flows, and a desire for a steepening curve.
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The RenMac team discusses Biden’s press conference and international ramifications, shifting sentiment with bears outweighing bulls, and the Fed’s proposed dot plot ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, signs the pandemic might be ending, and what yields are saying.
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RenMac reviews the political costs of inflation, how the new Fed nominees could impact policy, the importance of quality as liquidity normalizes, signs of a policy mistake and the outlook for 2022 as we progress toward the election.
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January 7, 2022 18 min
The RenMac team discusses the collapse of concept capital, the Fed’s March glidepath, whether the Fed is offsides, inflationary buildup in the labor market, how Biden’s expected nominees will lead to politicization of the Fed, and tilting towards value.
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December 17, 2021 17 min
RenMac debates Build Back Better vs Build Back at All, Powell’s latest thoughts, vacancies at the Fed, implications of the yield curve and the continued and expected deterioration of “concept finance”
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Neil crashes “Off-script” from Miami to discuss inflation, while Steve views it thru the lens of fiscal policy and 2022 elections. Jeff discusses his discomfort with the flattening yield curve, the importance of the Fed’s balance sheet, and the fading of “concept capital”.
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