Argentina vs Croatia Preview - Soccer Today with Kevin Laramee

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Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Can hear this properly as we godown a new route on Twitter spaces,
trying to bring you some high qualityaudio right here, trying to talk about
soccer today's version on Twitter spaces.Okay, it's a big day, semi
final, semifinal number one Argentina Croatia, and has talked about on the CTV

(00:21):
News earlier today. We're going topreview this game. You and I looking
at, Yes, who's your favorite? Because I think it's going to be
a long day for Croatia. ButI thought that was going to happen against
Canada too, But turns out thatgame will actually tell us a lot about
what Croatia's gonna do today against Argentina. We will compare the attacks, compare
the defenses, and look at thehead to head records at the World Cup,

(00:44):
and then we will look at whatI think is going to happen during
this game, which is is goingto be a game of channels. It's
going to be either mud Rich andcompany on the outside flanks or Messy cutting
back in and having Enzo with himin the midfield and together they can break
down Croatia. So let's first ofall go in the head to head record

(01:07):
right here on Soccer Today Twitter spaces. By the way, thank you for
following Soccer Today. The brand newlaunch with a new website, Soccer Today
dot Ca. We've been heard acrossthe world already and we're going to be
on the radio in Kelowna on Thursday. Earlier today, we're on CTV News.
More to come in the next fewdays. France nineteen ninety eight Group

(01:32):
H third match of the group ArgentinaCroatia Argentina Wonda game. Croatia finished second.
Argentina won the group also, andthat was the first match between the
two at World Cup level. Russiatwenty eighteen, Group D match number two,
Croatia three, Argentina zero. Rabbitsat the fifty third minutes, Modrich

(01:53):
at the eightieth and Rakotic, whoretired internationally, scored at the ninety feet
minute. Croatia won the group.Croatia finished second in the entire World Cup,
being runners up. Argentina was runnersup in twenty fourteen. So whoever
wins today will also have their secondWorld Cup final in the last decade.
That is quite an impressive feat thatwe will see today at Loose Sail Stadium.

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The favorites as of right now,Argentina one point ninety Croatia four seventy
five in the draw three thirty three, which means that Argentina is actually favored
to qualify at one forty Croatia twoseventy one. I still see value on
Argentina here, but you can judgefor yourself as we go through the lineups,

(02:39):
and of course what I think isgoing to be the decisive factor that
we can talk about a little lateron the show. As we now look
at what I think is going tobe one of the designing factors at least
an influential part of the game.The attack for Argentina versus Croatia's attack and

(03:00):
Croatia's defense is a little bit well, it's overrated. In this tournament.
They have the second worst expected goalsagainst in the entire tournament with seven point
five, while Argentina has the bestin the tournament at one point nine.
And that is expected goals against.The amount of goals that expected goals against,
well, it's the amount of expectedgoals the opponent did get against them

(03:21):
during the same time period. Argentinahas not a lot a lot of goals.
They've allowed four only three for Croatia, which is like third best so
far in the tournament, having hadfive games played. That's not even a
goal per game average. That's verygood, but they're expected goals against,
like I was mentioning, is sevenpoint five, which means it's one point

(03:42):
thirty three. They give away alot of chances during games, and that
could be dangerous for Croatia because theydon't create a whole lot of chances,
and that's where there's a big disparity. Argentina creates about six times more chances
when you look at in the entiretyof the game than Croatia, just because
of the amount of goal goals andthe amount of scored and the amount of
shots they get on targets they createfrom set pieces, which Croatia has failed

(04:05):
to do so far in this tournament. No shots from free kicks for Croatia,
three for Argentina, and we've seenalso Messi do very well off of
free kicks at set pieces play andpenalty kicks. Of course, shot creating
actions one of my favorite indicator ofa team that can create an action that

(04:28):
ends with an opportunity. If youdon't put the ball on target, well
you're not going to score. Goalcreating actions are fun, but the size
of this data here is so small. You usually have, like per player,
not even in this type of tournament, a couple of gold creating actions,
and that's not enough to truly seea disparity between the teams. But
when I look at shot creating actionsand I look at Argentina one hundred twenty

(04:51):
six shot creating actions versus ninety,that's like a quarter or more for Argentina,
and they do better with their opportunitieshaving score well, expect the goals
of nine point five with nine goalsscored, so they do take their chances
and they are clinical in their finishes. You can say one goal they didn't

(05:11):
finish if you round up expected goalsand nine point five will be ten discored
nine, so there's like one expectedgoal that didn't show up in reality,
which just proves a model and itis quite interesting. We can also look
at the possession average sentient average forArgentina Croatia fifty four, and to me,
the shot creating actions will be thedisparity here to give an edge to

(05:33):
Argentina because we combine that with theexpected goals against, and that's where there's
a big disparity for Croatia. Theygive away more goal than other teams,
and that does make a big differencebecause when you give away more scoring opportunity,
when you give away more well,if you give more shot creating even

(06:00):
more shots away to the opponent,that will be dangerous for you when it
comes to handling the pressure, handlingthe cutback kinds of messy. So when
when we boil that down to Croatiahaving an older defense, Argentina having chemistry
in their attack, creating more shots, more shots on target on average five

(06:24):
shots on target per game, whereit's three and a half for Croatia.
If you add the stats up atthe end of the day, they should
see enough difference to see maybe twogoals for Argentina and maybe one goal for
Croatia. So if I have togive my prediction early on, right now,
it would be two one Argentina.Expect the goal average per game this

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tournament for Argentina is one seventy eight, Croatia is one or three. So
right there, you see that ifit goes chalk, If it goes according
to the models, Argentina would scoretwo goals in regulation, Argenta one.
One. Thing I want to talkabout is the final third entries versus Brazil
for Croatia and the final third entriesfor the Netherlands at all for Argentina University

(07:10):
the Netherlands. Then it's a datapoint that shows you where their breakthrough heading
into the attacking area of the pitchcame from. And mixed with their starting
eleven, you can see which playerwas able to break through the defense.
No shock here Modrich and Passalich,but especially Modric On the right side as

(07:31):
right midfield was the channel. Youcould say that was the most prolific breaking
down Brazil twenty seven times. Onthe right channel was Brazil beaten. And
on the left channel nineteen time andParachi were able to break down that left
channel of Brazil with a lot ofsuccess. That is where Croatia could be

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dangerous against Argentina today is on thosesides of the field. So Acuna who
plays on the left midfields on theright side of Croatia, and we'll play
against Modrich and Molina, who's goingto play against KOVICI will be the two
midfield that will have the pressure ofblocking their channel. They're gonna get help

(08:15):
from the Paul on the right sideof Argentina, so left of Croatia and
McAllister also, But you're gonna needEnzo and Messy to help that pressure,
to help slow it down a littlebit so that you can have the play
go back in the middle, becauseI think it favors Argentina if he goes
back in the midfield. The waythey're set up with a three to five

(08:37):
two with the Paul Fernandez, well, Enzo, and Micallister all in the
midfield, with Acuna and Molina beingon the wings does give one man advantage
for Argentina in the midfield. Thatshould maybe nullifi Brosovich's talent gap. He's
better than everybody else in that position. Maybe that nullifies Brosovich there. But

(08:58):
Messi will be knee did in asort of free floating type of role with
Alvares maybe playing a little bit morecentral, and you will find, I
do believe, some opportunities to scorewith that aspect of the game, because
that's where Argentina gets most of theirbreakthroughs. Against the Netherlands, they got
most of their breakthroughs on the rightchannel, will line Messi with seventeen and

(09:22):
in the central channel they got alot also with Enzo having Alvarez close to
him and breaking it down when Messicuts back into So that could be a
key to victory for Argentina where thebreakdown of the defensive Croatia happens. If
it happens the midfield, it mightbe favoring them. I think if they
tag target Laverne, who's not havinga good tournament for Croatia, they could

(09:46):
find some goal scoring chances for Argentina, and I think that will be influential
set pieces. We've seen Argentina createoff of set pieces. Gable to put
the ball onto I get three timesshots on target coming off set pieces,
zero for Croatia. If it comesto set piece game, if it comes

(10:07):
for elite set piece, Messi couldbe a big, big influence on the
result of this game. Now,while I take a little swigger coffee,
let's put some background music as wenow continue and look at what's going to
happen between the teams later today.All right, let's go. The other

(10:39):
part of this is the battle ofthe midfield and the battle of the possession.
We're talking about two teams that dolike to play with the ball.
Sixty one possession sixty two actually forArgentina fifty four for Croatia. They're both
used to having the ball, soI think to be able to compare their
ability to get the ball back,because that will be important any battle of

(11:01):
teams that love to play with theballs. If you lose the ball,
your ability to get it back mightdictate what you do with ball, might
dictate where you get your your chancesfrom your opportunities from Argentina. Oh well,
let me just preface this by sayingthis might be my new favorite equation
and entire football. I don't havea term for it yet. It's tackles,

(11:24):
recoveries and interceptions. In my mind, it's how you can get the
ball back. A tackle is thebeginning of it something. It doesn't always
end up with possession gain or lossof possession from the opponent, but a
tackle is the base of a defensiveaction, and I do like to add
it in this discussion. Two hundredand twenty six recoveries and thirty four interceptions

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that it goes three hundred and thirtyeight altogether, but that is the marker
for now. Remember that number.Croatia ninety three tackles, two hundred and
ninety one recoveries, forty interceptions forfour hundred and twenty four. That's heights
in the competition. As I crackdown the numbers, and it's quite an
advantage or over Argentina. That couldnullify all the offensive and defensive advantages and

(12:09):
edges that so far I see withArgentina. But I don't think that's enough.
I add the age factor, andthen I add two games of one
hundred twenty minutes for Croatia over thelast few weeks, playing in penalties and
taking it further, and the luckfactor, and you had the expected goals
against second highest in the entire competition. And you add a team that is

(12:31):
very good. Yes, is itas deep as the other teams when you
look at the bench and the optionsthat might also Yeah, same for Argentina,
but that could be the biggest differencewhen you're struggling to attack to create
the score, late influx of energyof youth. That's where it's a bit
more difficult for Argentina. Sorry forCroatia, Argentina has an edge a little

(12:56):
older team in Croatia, one ofthe oldest in the tournament. Argentina.
Yes, the average is still closeto Croatia. It's in the twenty sevens,
but it does skew younger when youlook at the median, and that
is maybe a truer indicator of thetrue age average of Argentina, which I
do believe they have the edge.Right here, we can quickly talk about

(13:18):
the starting eleven and you can goto my website Soccer Today dot CA if
you want to see what they looklike. I do believe they're not going
to be any more changes than whatwe saw in their last game for the
both of them. So I dobelieve it's going to be the same starting
eleven as Brazil for Croatia and thesame for Argentina as they played against Netherlands.

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So for Croatia they had while theirheroes so far in this tournament Levakovich
in nets Sosa, Guardio Loan Urgandovichin the back line, defenders Kovic,
Brozovich and Modrich from left to rights, and that is the case for the
midfield and Paris Krema, Rich andPasch. My dog is making a little

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appearance on the show today. You'reattacking three four Croatia. Now for our
for the Argentina, I think Martinez, well, obviously Martine is going to
be in nets l Martinez left centerback, Otamendi middle center back, with
Comego on the right Acuna McAlister.It's too bad there's no montata players because
you can have a nakuna matata duoplaying in the midfield. For Argentina,

(14:24):
Fernandez at your middle defensive slash attackingmiddle a bit of a free role here,
but I do believe it's going tobe closer to the attacking than the
pure defensive role that he can have. Sometime the Paul and then Molina Alvarez
a Messi up top. Messi,in my opinion, we'll have a little
freer role, maybe breaking down theright channel as mentioned earlier, and sometimes

(14:45):
finding others in the middle. Thisis going to be a battle. This
is going to be very close,but I believe Argentina's advantages on the offensive
and defensive aspects of the game willbe enough to counter Croatia's better midsial play.
Messi only needs half a chance orhalf a passing lane to be influential,
like we saw in the game againstthe Netherlands, and I foresee him

(15:09):
doing just that. Argentina two Croatiaone in normal ninety minutes and as always
until next time. Thank you forfollowing our brand new website and joining the
crew at Soccer Today dot ca.Thank you for subscribing to our podcast,
YouTube channel and finding our collaborations acrossall platforms. But as always, until

(15:33):
next time, I hope you enjoyedtoday's show and as always, have a great soccer