LAFC New MLS Overlords, Wanyama On His Way Out, and MTL Chasing Another Record - Soccer Today (October 5th, 2022) - Soccer Today with Kevin Laramee (covering the 2022 Qatar FIFA World Cup)

Episode Transcript
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Soccer Today is powered by Spin Mediafrom podcast to video production. Visit Spin
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of football with a soccer perspective.This is Soccer Today with Twain Vollins and
Kevin Laramay live on the Sports PodcastingNetwork. Good Day, good night,
Welcome to Soccer Today for Wednesday,October fifth, twenty twenty two. I'm
keV Laramay and on today's show,we will be looking at LAFC, our

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new overlord of Major League Soccer SupportersShield Winner for twenty twenty two. We
will look at some of the keynumbers heading into their last game of the
regular season next weekend. It isdecision day across MLS and we will look
at some of the key matchup thatwe'll be taking place on Wednesday evening and
also on Sunday afternoon. On today'sshow, we will also be looking at

(01:11):
Victor Juanyama and his statistics. Withthe Montreal team now being official that he
will not be back with the teamnext season. We will look at how
this evolved and how he is contributionfor see if Montreal since joining the team
has led to the success of theteam this year, and we will also

(01:33):
look at the standings and the favoriteaccording to the bookmakers heading into the weekend.
Four Supporters Shield. Of course that'sdecided. So for MLS Cup,
is it too late? Is therestill some value or is the boat long
gone? Those are some of thegreat topics we will be talking about tonight

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as we start looking at Los AngelesFootball Club LAFC Supporters Shield winners. They
are guaranteed to finish on top ofthat Supporters Shield standings. Here aren't their
numbers with one games left, onegame left to play the season sixty seven

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points after thirty three games, apoint per game average of two point zero
three, a record of twenty onewins, eight losses and four draws,
sixty six goal four thirty seven goalsagainst for a differential of twenty nine plus

(02:43):
twenty nine, and a very impressiverecord at home thirteen one and two at
Bank of California Stadium in LA.On the road eight maybe disappointing record,
This could have been a record breakingseason even if a few victories were achieved

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on the road. A eight sevenand two record on the road for LAFC.
They will guarantee to finish first Billyand Montreal are second and third in
that race, but it's not arace anymore because the winner has been announced.
But looking at LAFC, clearly theodds on favorite to win MLS Cup,

(03:31):
three are the odds. Three pointzero zero are the odds for LAFC
to win MLS Cup. According todifferent bookmakers, Philadelphia Union is second with
five point zero zero, followed byMontreal at nine point zero zero. Then
the rest of the teams a couplelike ny CFC, Austin and others are

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at thirteen. So people think,or people or oddsmakers Believeless Angels FC will
be the champions in the confetti notonly for the regular season but also for
the playoffs and Major League Soccer dotcom and Soccer dot com as I published

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an article earlier today that is quiteinteresting for people like me. And when
I say people like me, Imean statisticians of course, but also someone
who loves sports and love numbers.And of course if you have been a
longtime listener of this show, youknow that now I'm a sports statistician working
with Tabias Ball for the last twoyears on soccer on the broadcast of cf

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Montreal games and those numbers that willbe following on this segment regarding LAFC are
very interesting because they also give youan analysis of them. And I'm going
to read through some of the partsof the article to give you an idea
of what I look like, whatI really, what I look for when

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I research, when I get thingsready for a weekend, but also just
for my personal college. Let's go, and this is an article that was
written earlier today on MLS Soccer dotcom by Joseph Lowry. You can follow
Joseph on Twitter at Joe C Lowry. And here is the title of the

(05:17):
article. It's called why LAFC mayjust win MLS Cup. Five key stats
explained. So let's just jump tothe first stat. The first one.
It's point zero, sorry, zeropoint sixty nine expect a goal differential per

(05:39):
game. No team in MLS hasa better expected goal differential per game than
LAFC. According to American Soccer Analysis, LAFC out create their opponents at the
highest rate in the league, whichcertainly bodes well for them in a postseason,
especially on a one off game,when one moment of creation can be

(06:00):
the difference between winning or losing aplayoff game. The article continues saying,
per American Soccer Analysis, the PhiladelphiaUnion zero point six zero and New York
City FC zero point fifty seven arerelatively close behind lafc's point sixty nine expected
goal differential. Still LAFC r inthe top spot, and when you look

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at their squad, it's easy tosee why. In the attack, Vella
twelve goals eleven assists and Christian Orongosixteen goals five assists are both in the
top twenty players in terms of expectedgoals and actual goals in twenty twenty two.
VELA is also in the top tenwhen it comes to expected assists and

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key passes. With all of theirattacking talent, LAFC make it extremely difficult
for opposing defenses to deal with themin the open field. However, expected
goal differential isn't all about attacking.It's also about your ability to defend well

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and limit your opponent's chances. Thesecond statistic that Joseph Lowery talks about in
that article that does highlight the greatpotential of LAFC in the playoffs, but
also of Montreal, So bear withme. It goes as follows. Speaking

(07:34):
of defending LAFC have some excellent defensivenumbers this year. Per American Soccer Analysis,
their second in all of MLS inexpectedgoals allowed per game with one point
zero five, the only team infront of them. You're asking, well,

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let us see if Montreal with onepoint zero five with an edge in
the thousandth of a point here forthe place over in the Eastern Conference.
So that means LAFC are the WesternConference best team when it comes to limiting
their opponent's chances, which means Montrealis actually the best in the East for

(08:15):
that. Part of that is dueto their strong defensive structure where Torontolo uses
a four three three with good spacingand effective counterpressing. Per second spectrum,
LAFC have allowed the second least openplay expected goal per ninety in transition this
year, only behind Nashville Soccer Clubat point twenty four. That speaks to

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their solidity even in difficult defensive situations. So there is the second statistic that
does give an edge to LAFC.Even if you only get double your money
at this point on top of youroriginal bad betting LAFC at three zero zero
on most of your favorite sports books, it might still worth it's a value

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as you will not have your moneytied up for too long and you might
actually get some benefit out of it. Third statistics according to mlscocer dot com,
just as a lowry for lafc's probablewin of MLS Cup, point zero
eight expected goal allowed per shot.You thought I was done talking about the

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defense, thann You not quite,he says. One other important defensive trend
that stands out when you look atthrough lafc's number is the low quality shots
they allow according to second Spectrum,which I do not have access, so
I'm glad that MLS is putting someof them on here. Opposing teams only
average zero point zero eight expected pershot against LAFC. That number is the

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second lowest in MLS, only behindGary Smithson and Nashville team, which is
points seven. So so far intwenty twenty two, teams have only taken
eighty two shots from the middle ofthe penalty box against LAFC, which is
the fewest inn MLS. Because opposingteams really struggle to break into the eighteen
yard box and fire off dangerous shots, they're often forced to take low quality

(10:18):
shots from distance and as a coachor as a defender, those are the
kind of corn, the kind ofshots that you can live with. Moving
on to Orongo's zero point thirty nineexpected goal per ninety minutes, which means
he scores point four goals every ninetyminute, which means every game. Every

(10:41):
two games are a little bit morethan two. Every two games, these
scores a goal which if you goto the playoff and the playoff front of
maximum four games because it bring yourtwo goals, depending if you bring the
officiacy little high, that could beinteresting. But when I look at Orongo,
I do believe he might be thekey for success for lay. As

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we continue flipping back over to theattack, LAFC have one of the best
number nine in all of MLS Orango. Arango's goal scoring ability will be a
huge part of his team's MLS Cupcampaign. According to Second Spectrum, Arango
is the ninety nine percentile in MLSthis year in open pla expect a goalper

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ninety among players with at least athousand minutes. He moves into good spots
in the box, takes a tonof shots, and crucially forces defenders to
take their eyes off of Vella.Gareth Bell, Dennis Bowonga and Christian Cello
and the arrest of lafc's offensive corps. When you look back through the last

(11:56):
five MLS Cup winners, all fivey them had at least one double digit
goal scorer in the regular season,which tells me the favorites are LAFC in
Montreal. Anyways, Arono with hissixteen goals and MLAs this year, along
with Bella's twelves check the scoring boxfor LAFC, and then we will look

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at the last statistics before we moveon on another topic for today's shall Before
I get into okay, this isstill Joseph Flowery's article available on MLS soccer
dot com why LAFC may just swinMLS Cup. Five key stats explained.
This is stat number five, joseC Fuentes four point thirty seven goals added.

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Before I get into how incredibly goodjose C Fuentest has been for LAFC
in twenty twenty two, I shoulddefine goals added developed by the wonderful folks
over at American Soccer Analysis. Goalsadded G plus measures a player's total contribution

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to a game or a season bycalculating how much how each of their touches
changes their team's chances of scoring andconceding. So if you're helping your team
create chances in the attack and limitchances at the other end, you're going

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to be pretty high up on theG plus rating rankings. Ce fuent slaf
Ces, Ecuadorian international midfielder, isthird in all of them last this year
in G plus with four point thirtyseven. The two players of ad of
him question Mark twenty twenty two LondonDonovan MLS MVP favorite Honey Mochtar, who

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has five point fifty five goals addedand last year's MVP Carlos Hill with four
point fifty five goals added. Cifuentesdoesn't spend as much time pulling the strings
in the attack as Muktar or Hill, but he does a fantastic job of

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progressing the ball and making game changingruns into the box. Per Football Reference,
Sifuentes is in the eighty eighth percentileamong midfielders in MLS this year in
progressive carries and the ninety fourth ofsuccessful dribbles. He gets the ball from
point eight to point b quickly andreliably. Defensively, he's in the eighty

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seventh percentile and Drippler's tackled and inthe eighty eighth for pressures. So Sifuentes
does so much of the dirty workfor LAFC. With this mobility, with
Centez the distribution, it's going tobe very difficult for teams to stop in
LAFC in the playoffs. And Ithink the only team that can stop LAFC
in the playoffs and that is meadding onto it, that is Montreal that

(15:03):
could be Elias's opponent in the finalson MLS Cup on November fifth. Very
interesting. We'll take a short break. When we come back, we'll talk
about Victor Juma and the big newsthat was not necessarily a well kept secret
that was announced yesterday. You arelistening to Soccer Today. Follow us on

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Twitter at Soccer Today ESPN, andlike our Facebook page, Facebook dot com
Forward Slash Sports podcasting network, andwe're back on Soccer Today. As we

(15:52):
thank our Patreon who helped support thecreation of this show at patreon dot com.
Slash two solitudes. Let's talk aboutVictor m who announced yesterday after training
with CF Montreal that he will notbe back with the club next season.
The Desna player will have played threeseason with the Montreal outfit playing as of

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today seventy nine games. It willbe his eightieth on Sunday on Decision Day
versus Miami seventy seventh start, itwill be his seventy if if he starts
on Sunday. Five goals, sevenassists in the regular season, a passing
accuracy average of around eighty six percentwith CF Montreal since joining the club this

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season, he tops Montreal in acouple of different categories. It's been a
battle between him and Ride camas Showin the recoveries for CF Montreal. Vitama
tops the team right now with twohundred and ninety nine, followed by camas
Show with two ninety seven, Waltermhis third, Miller fourth, and Johnston.

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To give you an overview of thetop five better players in the recovery
department from Montreal. One statistic thatI think is important to look at when
we look at Dicta Juenyama's work inMontreal is this amount of tackles in the
midfield. Fifty six tackles from Montrealthis season. One of the well the

(17:23):
best from Montreal so far this year. When we look at also the efficiency,
he's one of the best in theteam. He's one of the best
also to players under pressure when itcomes into the midfield. Those are all
things that he's able to do overthe last few years. Of course,
his offensive contribution was not necessarily thebig reason why he was brought into Montreal

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to begin with. It was maybea bit of a lackluster. One thing
that was maybe a sign of worryat the beginning. It was the amount
of games played by him with hisinjury history over in London with Tottenham,
we're seeing actually longevity with Victor wanYama since Johnny Montreal. He played twenty

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one games in twenty twenty twenty sevenin twenty twenty two and twenty twenty one,
and thirty one so far in twentytwenty two. Injuries have not been
a problem for Victor jan Yemma andthat is a positive aspect. Now going
forward, what is to think abouthis stay with the CF Montreal. I

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think it all depends on how thisyear finishes. If Montreal finishes on November
fifth in the confettis well, Iguess it gives you a very very successful
time for Victor jan Yemma in Montreal. I think we're already seeing the end

(18:52):
of this current project for CF Montrealin multiple ways. The Snowflakes going away
at the end of the season into the to the happiness of a lot
of people probably listening. One thingthat is also going to change is Victawanyama
will not be back. Georgie Mihailovichwill not be back, will also probably

(19:14):
not have his man Korne back nextseason. Who knows. Gamen Kiyoto might
also be on a window being choppedaround after scoring over fifteen goals in the
season for the first time in hiscareer and that is pretty rare in the
history of teams in MLS. Again, the last three MLS Cup winners have

(19:37):
had a goal scorer over ten goals, so that is a positive sign for
see if Montreal heading to the playoffs, which they will, and there's a
very fair probability deal be facing Miamior maybe even teams like Columbus if they
can squeak in. But I kindof think that it will be Miami,

(19:57):
which leads a very very interesting situationheading into decision day from Montreal heading into
the first round of playoff. Miamiis actually playing tonight, and Miami can
clinch a playoff spot tonight with awin over Orlando. Orlando can clinch a
playoff spot with a win over Miami, and they also need the Columbus to

(20:21):
lose at Charlotte. Because tonight it'sthe restart or just a continuation of the
game that was canceled earlier this yearbetween Charlotte and Columbus. This matchup was
originally began on July thirtieth, andit was canceled at the sixteenth minute it
was tied zero zero. It willrestart recommence with the same players on the

(20:48):
field and the substitutes available, andthis is according to the twenty twenty two
MLS match delay, postponement, cancelationand forfeiture policy. But too games tonight
that could influence a result of theplayoffs and also influence who's gonna play whom
in the Melaska Playoffs first round.Montreal so far would face against Miami,

(21:11):
New York City would face Orlando,and New York would face Cincinnati. That
could change. It did change recentlyas New York City overtook New York for
the third spot in the Eastern Conference. Speaking of New York City FC,
their first match either against Orlando oranother team, will not take place at

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Yankee Stadium. Will also not takeplace at City Field. Yes, NYCFC
will play at Red Bulls Arena onceagain in a playoff situation as a host
team in the stadium of their biggestrivals. The Rebels are gonna make money

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off of New York City's FC likea stadium by renting Red bull Arena to
them for playoffs. Why not?Why not have your cake and need it
to if you are the Red Bulls. So I do believe Montreal has a
lot to look forward to this offseasonas a new project start for the foreseeable

(22:19):
future, with possibility of new namescoming in. Don't expect big names,
don't expect designated players, Expect youngerplayers that could give you a lot for
a few years. That's what we'vebeen exposed to. That's what we should
well anticipate going forward. So speakingof going forward, not only are there

(22:42):
games today, there's of course abig decision day on Sunday, and maybe
this will be the last show beforeSunday. We'll see if it's possible for
me to do another show until then. Of course, I'm going to be
a father soon, so that's alwaysin the the background. There's a possibility
where I'm going to go radio silentfor a while. That's because that means

(23:04):
the baby has come. We'll see. But follow my Twitter feed at keV
Larramie for more details on this situationOrlando City coal And by the way,
if you're wondering, and that's whythe video component for now, I'm not
quitting on the video just it's alot of work for the video to put
to the standard that I love andI do not have that time right now

(23:25):
with my professional work, and it'sa MLB MLS playoffs, and I've been
very occupied by also making sure thatI take time for myself. So it's
been a it's been a juggling ofsort. And thank you for following our
great coverage here on Soccer Today andfollow myself at keV Larami and continue this
beautiful journey, probably less often thanwhat we're used to and a bit more

(23:52):
audio than before. One day,maybe we'll have a just a weekly show
on the YouTube page, which thankyou for subscribing to the YouTube page.
You will have the podcast on YouTubepage in the meantime for sure, with
no problem. Let's just have alook at what decision day means for next

(24:12):
week. Let's go for now aswe start to think about the end of
this season, the coffee is anecessity, at least in my line at

(24:33):
work. All right, on Sundaytwo thirty pm Eastern, that is the
Eastern Conference slot time slot for DecisionDay, Orlando Columbus two thirty. Of
course all the games are two thirtyOrlando Columbus. That could be for a
playoff spot. The winner could goin and the loser could be out.

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That's very interesting. Chicago and NewEngland, that's an interesting aspect year.
Two teams that have been eliminated thatare playing for nothing that might see a
whole lot of changes this offseason.Chicago New England finishing the season against each
other. It's like the league newthat this would mean nothing. The Red
Bulls are facing Charlotte. The Rebelsare of course in search of points to

(25:18):
maybe get that third spot back inthe Eastern Conference. DC Cincinnati, that's
an interesting one. Philly Toronto agame that means a whole lot for Philly
to finish top of the East.With a win, Philly finishes top with
a lose. With a loss,Philly would finish second. If Montreal wins,

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Montreal could finish top of the EasternConference with a win regardless of the
result in Philly and Toronto, andthat is because Philly lost last week.
Atlanta NYCFC a game that will meana lot for NYCFC as they are fighting
for that third spot, but agame that could be known as the last

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game of JOSEF. Martinez's career inMajor League Soccer or Atlanta One of those
two scenarios are going to happen.Game on October nineth against NYCFC will be
us F Martinez's last game with AtlantaUnited. Mark my words, mark your

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calendar. After a successful bicycle lastweek to saw USF Martinez dazzle the entire
league one last time, will hebe performing for the Five Stripes and can
they play spoilers in nycfc's run atthird place. The Flamingos against CF Montreal

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on Sunday at the Drive Pink Stadium. Will Montreal get another resolved, another
win on the road. It's quiteimpressive when I look, and I'm gonna
actually look at this stand right now, so while I talk, I'm actually
looking for something else too. WhenI look at Montreal's I would say record

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on the road. It's really,really impressive. They have won six straight
road games. They have one sinceJuly twenty third. They have won against
DC on July twenty third, twoone, Columbus on August third, two
one. They won against the HoustonDynamo on August thirteenth, three two,

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and then Chicago two nil at SoldierField August twenty seventh, and then September
fourth they won four three against TFCagain. September seventeenth, they won one
nil against New England. That issix straight road win and MLS record that's
only been done once before, andthat is in twenty and now I forgot

(28:04):
the year. I knew it byher two thousand and five with Santos,
the Earthquakes and Lyndon Donevan. I'mnot sure that the many you might have
been in Everton, but I knowWinner's Rosario was there. So that's a
new record. And Montreal could beatthis weekend on Sunday with a seven straight
road win. That has never beendone before. Montreal has a shot at

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it, and that's what it's allabout. This could be Victor one Yama's
last road game in Montreal. Montrealwill come home now we'll have home field
advantage for at least one game.If they win, they can also have
it for the next round. Thoseare going to be impressive aspect of this
great Montreal season. But we're gonnaget ready. It's gonna be a big
decision day, and there's a minidecision day tonight. We'll probably be back.

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I'll probably be back on the airwayshere to break down those games very
soon. And yes and a Smithit will follow as none as many video
shows. Frankly, I won't havethe time to build this show for four
hours times per day with the babyand with continuing everything, I will do

(29:14):
my best to do as many audiopodcasts as we can and here as I
can, and moving forward, hopefullywe can all agree to just enjoy this
beautiful playoffs that are coming. Untilnext time, as always, have a
great soccer. You can find apodcast version of all the shows we do
on iTunes, Google play Store,tune in Radio, iHeartRadio, and anywhere

(29:37):
you get your podcast. One

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LAFC New MLS Overlords, Wanyama On His Way Out, and MTL Chasing Another Record - Soccer Today (October 5th, 2022)

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}LAFC New MLS Overlords, Wanyama On His Way Out, and MTL Chasing Another Record - Soccer Today (October 5th, 2022)