In this episode,
Kevin previews the Quarterfinals matchups with head-to-head records, stats, predictions, and a breakdown of what to expect Friday and Saturday.
Plus, he gives his thoughts on Luis Enrique quitting Spain, and Eden Hazard retiring from international soccer.
Catch Kevin’s latest articles on soccertoday.ca
Subscribe to Soccer Today’s channel here https://youtube.com/@soccertoday
Subscribe to the podcast everywhere you find your favorite shows.
Until next time, have a great soccer!
Kevin previews the Quarterfinals matchups with head-to-head records, stats, predictions, and a breakdown of what to expect Friday and Saturday.
Plus, he gives his thoughts on Luis Enrique quitting Spain, and Eden Hazard retiring from international soccer.
Catch Kevin’s latest articles on soccertoday.ca
Subscribe to Soccer Today’s channel here https://youtube.com/@soccertoday
Subscribe to the podcast everywhere you find your favorite shows.
Until next time, have a great soccer!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:11):
Good day, good night, andwelcome to Soccer Today the podcast. I'm
Kevin Laramy and today we will previewthe quarterfinals of the World Cup, looking
at Croatia, Brazil, Netherlands,Argentina, Morocco, Portugal, England,
(00:32):
France. From a statistical and apragmatical point of view, we will be
looking at all that is important toknow heading into the last eight games of
this tournament, the quarterfinals, thesemi final of the final and the third
place match. Let's not forget thefamous third place match at Belgium one.
(00:56):
And maybe we will start with Belgium, because there's news concerning Belgium, the
Belgium national team, and then Azaretiring from international football a little bit surprising,
but the Belgium international the captain asof until now has it retired.
And this is an expert taken fromSoccer Today dot Ca, your brand new
(01:19):
website where you can get some informationand some analysis, news analysis and of
course the home of the podcast andthe video magazine Soccer Today dot Ca.
And of course this is a quotefrom a Semi El Sayed, a philosopher
in the Middle Ages in the Arabworld. The greatest challenges humans face throughout
(01:41):
their lives are twofolds, the challengeof where to start and the challenge of
when to stop. And Edinazar hasdecided to stop his Red Devil's career right
here, right now, after thisWorld Cup. This is taken from his
Instagram page, where he mentions thefollowing, A page turns today. Thank
(02:08):
you for your love, thank youfor your unparalleled support, Thank you for
all this happiness he shared us sincetwo thousand and eight, I have decided
to put an end to my internationalcareer. The succession is ready. I
will miss you and then aazah.He made his debut for the national team
(02:28):
at seventeen years and thirty three hundredand sixteen days old and he friendly against
Looks on Board in two thousand andeight. It took him three years to
first score a goal for Belgium andhe did so against Kazakhstan in he friendly.
Going in and out of the startingeleven in his first three years with
the Red Devils, he was partof the famous Golden Generation that he's also
(02:53):
the first one to retire from.We will see if this is the first
of many for Belgium. Other playersmight follow suit. Following Cape the captain,
he was named the captain before Russiatwenty eighteen, and he did captain
that team to the best result everfor Belgium, which was the third place.
They beat England in that famous fora third place match too nil and
(03:15):
he got his third Men of theMatch honors in that match, and it
was of course the third of thetournament, and there was a feat that
has not been accomplished since and itwas the only player in that tournament that
did so. He finished Russia twentyeighteen with three goals and two assists.
And after the fact, the FIFATechnical Study Group, which is a group
(03:37):
that looks at statistics, advanced stasand also match reports and talk around.
In my mind, they talk arounda round table, you know, and
they all have like computers and calculatorsand Texas instruments, advanced calculators and they
just make really complicated graphics and theytalk about what the results of the World
(03:57):
Cup mean and who stood out.And he was awarded the Silver Ball at
that tournament, being voted the secondbest player of the entire tournament and given
a silver Ball. Here are hisnumbers with the national team the Red Devils
in his entire career. One hundredtwenty six Star games, one hundred and
five starts, almost nine thousand minutesto be precise, eight thousand, six
(04:20):
hundred and ninety eight. That doesinclude Qatar twenty twenty two thirty three goals,
thirty six assists. Minutes per goalwith the national team from his beginning
two is end is two hundred andsixty four minutes per goal, so he
scores once every three and a halfgames for the Belgium and national team.
(04:40):
He did score ten times from thepenalty spot, and he has gathered an
expected goal value per game at theWorld Cup of zero point forty five forty
six to be precise, and thatis almost point five, which means it's
a goal every two games at theWorld Cup level. That is his statistics
for his entire career. It willbe interesting to see how his club career
(05:03):
continues and if he can focus onmaybe reestablishing the level he had before all
the injuries in his transfer to RealMadrid. At the Nazarre, of course,
famously was developed by multiple clubs.A little French was his club that
got into the highest level in France. He stayed there almost eight years,
(05:25):
went to Chelsea for almost five andeventually ended up with Real Madrid, which
was one of his dreams. Butthe dream really turned into a Ninemare quite
quickly. For at the Nazarre,injuries and really expectations that were never really
met up until today with the Galacticos. But now that we've talked about at
(05:48):
the Nazal, maybe it's time tofocus and start looking at what is going
to be a Battle Royale starting Fridayten am Croatia Brazil. Who's the favorite,
Who's gonna end up putting then oneinto submission? And of course I'm
(06:10):
making all these references to wrestling,because to me, this is a Battle
Royal. There's a couple favorites anda couple of my favorite and if you
look in the description of this showor you look on my social media,
I had some fun with some graphicsand made a little bit of wrestling references.
So let's go. Let's talk aboutthe first one, the first matchup
in the quarterfinals, Croatia Brazil ringthe Damn Bell. It's at first of
(06:38):
all ten am on December ninth.You can listen to it and watch it
in Canada on tsn CTV Fox inthe United States on the radio here in
Canada. I heard radio stations TSNRadio series XM. You can listen to
that game. I think it's goingto be very interesting one. After needing
(06:58):
penalties to get over the surprising BlueSamurai of Japan, Croatia is now heading
to Education City Stadium to face Asof right now, the odds on favorite
to win the World Cup Brazil.Yeah, the rd odds on favorite.
They are my favorite. Also almosttwice as heavy favorite as France, even
(07:19):
though France are the defending champions.Right now, if you want to batch
on Brazil to win the World Cup, you about a dollar. You get
two seventy five back, which isnot amazing, but it is what it
is. They are a heavy favoriteto win the tournament. And the Blazers,
which is a nickname, one ofthe nicknames of course of Croatia.
They're gonna have to do something they'venever done before. They're gonna have to
(07:41):
beat Brazil, and they've never beatenBrazil. They have never won against Brazil.
They have faced them four times inthe past, three losses, one
draw. They face each other twiceat the World Cup and the first time
was in two thousand and six inBerlin during the Germany Old Cup and this
game in Berlin was in Group Fand it was their opening game of the
(08:05):
tournament for both of them. Brazilwon one nothing kaka with the scoring on
that day at a forty fourth minuteand a young Luca Modrich was on the
bench but did not play on thatday. He was looking for minutes,
but still a bit too young andnot chosen. He did not make an
(08:26):
appearance during this game, but whathe win for Brazil. Of course,
this was the first World Cup gamecoming after winning two thousand and two.
Winning the Japan career World Cup intwo thousand and two, moving on to
be a heavy favorite in Germany didn'tturn out so well, and we can
look at that on another jay.Let's now look at the other game that
(08:48):
happened between the two at the WorldCup, and this one was in Brazil.
It was in twenty fourteen in Salpoloand Saopolo, that's where Salapolo FC
plays and Nymar scored twice. Oscar. I remember Oscar a lot because at
that moment he was a superstar forChelsea, one of my favorite players ever.
If you don't know, I'm aChelsea supporter. While supporter is a
(09:11):
big word. I'm a Chelsea,a fish Ronado. I think I would
make more sense. I leaned towardsChelsea. But that's about it, you
know. But he scored the thirdone for to sell us out there with
a nymar twice Marcello score but noton the right neat and it finished three
one for Brazil. Again, Brazilhas never lost to Croatia any friendly position
(09:35):
or during a game. Both teamsplay a different type of soccer, A
very offensively geared four two three oneis played by Brazil when we look at
Croatia, a possession based, afinding the right opportunity base. Funny how
they tried to play direct the lastgame they played didn't quite work out.
(09:56):
We'll see what what I call whattactical awareness, what tactical approach you're gonna
break here against Brazil. It's goingto be a four three three And here
are my notes. And again ifyou're looking for a written version, you
can find a written version of myquarterfinals preview on the website at Soccer Today
dot cate. So we'll go alittle bit deep dive here into what I
(10:20):
call the paying statistics, and ifyou want my prediction later stay tuned.
I'll try to give you a predictionwhere you can make some a little bit
of money. Let's look at howBrazil is going to be Croatia. First
of all, I don't know whattime it is where you are, but
(10:41):
where it is for me, it'sa bit coffee time. Every time,
it's coffee time for me. SoCroatia is the team left in the competition
with the highest expected goals against valuea five point out, and I think
they're gonna struggle against what could saythe best attack left in the tournament,
(11:07):
Brazil, which hasn't expected gold valueof nine point four. The second highest
is you know, expected assists forthem a six point five. By the
way, the only team that hasmore expected golden Brazil is Germany. And
we all know what happened to Germanyin this tournament. They forgot to the
defense and move on and to preparen see Fleck. I don't know how
(11:31):
you get from that one. Speakingof but I don't know how to get
over a bad performance. Lewis Enriquehas quit, the manager of Spain,
got back home after the disappointment oflosing to Morocco and penalties and he quit.
(11:52):
Lewis Enrique was going to quit regardless, he's looking for a club team
to go back to. Will beinteresting how he's perceived after this failure of
Spain in this tournament. Let's nowlook continue to look at Brazil. So
I talked about the nine point fourexpected goal value in this tournament so far,
(12:13):
six point five are he's expected assists. So not only do they score
a lot of goals, they scorea lot of goals by playing together,
one of the highest, second highestin the entire tournamentro far they expected assists
value. And to me, oneI guess my darling statistics over the last
few months has been the shot creatingactions, because I do believe it indicates
(12:37):
inability and a proficiency to get creativityof the ball and shots. It's one
thing. Creating a shot is what'simportant. Because when you look at replicability,
which is my word of the day, of replicability. I'm going to
talk about that later when I talkabout France and England, do not miss
that preview. But replicability is important. When you look at a team's potential
(13:03):
to win a game, lose agame, how do they replicate their goals?
Are they expected goals close to theirgoal value. That is to me
what replicability is. But here's ashot creating action. The more shot you
can create, the higher are yourprobability of scoring a goal. And we've
talked about how they allow a lotof goals against at least a lot of
chances they're expected goals against. Valueis big for Croatia. While one of
(13:26):
the teams that creates a most actionthe most shots are Brazil and they have
one hundred thirty three so far inall their games, with an average of
thirty three point twenty five, whichis basically thirty three shots or created shots
during a game. If you scoreevery four every five shots, which is
maybe even less than they do,you score three four times against a team
(13:48):
that is expected to give maybe agoal at least in this one, at
least I believe, because I think, and that is time to take out
your cash, because I believe Brazilwill winn by two goals. That is
my prediction. Brazil by two goalsin the regulation. It's going to be
a beautiful day in Rio, abeautiful day in South Paolo, a beautiful
(14:16):
day in Porto Alegre. It's goingto be party on the beach in Brazil.
Let's move on to our second game, the second game that will take
place on Friday, and that isthe Netherlands versus Argentina. This one's at
(14:37):
two pm Eastern eleven am Pacific.It will be at Louis sale A Stadium
once again on TSNTTV and Canada Foxthe United States, iHeartRadio, TSN Radio
and Sirious Act Sound. One ofthe surprises I guess left in the tournament
the Netherlands playing really well with MemphisDepie. Let's not forget Cody Gakuo who
(14:58):
scored thirty score three goals already.One statistic that to me is very important
is Memphis to pay forty three goalsin eighty five games with the Netherlands and
twenty nine assists. That's a veryhigh, very high output by the striker,
and he is back in form.He has been back with his team
(15:20):
over the last couple of games andreally showing how this team could be dangerous.
They're gonna face Argentina with Lanol MessiLeo Messi. That's going to be
very difficult, but still I believethat it could be closer to what we
think they'll need. All the attackthat they can muster because and you can
find those notes called Kevin notes onmy preview article on the website. Well,
(15:46):
Argentina has the best defense in thetournament according to the dance Metrics,
with an extremely small one point threeexpected goals against value in four games,
an average of point thirty three goalsgiven a game, and that is very
very low. The Netherlands haven't expectedgoals against value of three point nine with
an average of one point four.So if this goes to chock, there's
(16:08):
one goal that's scored and it's givenup by the Netherlands, and this could
be the difference maker in this match. And I do believe Argentina will win
a close affair. Once again,take out your wallet. Argentina wins a
close affair one nil in extra time. Messi puts it back in the net.
(16:30):
At the end of the game.Argentina wins one nil in extra time.
Messi the goal scorer. You heardit first. And if that's the
case, well it's going to bea joyful day at the Soccer Today headquarters.
Let's now move to the third game, the first one on the Saturday
morning, Morocco, Portugal, SaturdayDecember tenth, ten am at Altumana Stadium.
(17:00):
It's going to be an interesting one. There's a lot of drama on
the Portugal side. Christiano Ronaldo lefton the bench at the beginning of last
year. Last game was the firsttime since the mid two thousands that he
was left after starting eleven for Portugalwhen he's healthy, of course, and
his replacement Gonna Salo Ramos Santos.I forgot his first name. Let's let's
(17:26):
look, because that's quite important.So what's his first name? Say it's
Gonzalo. Let me check. Letme check because that's important. Anyways,
we'll talk about it when we lookin a second. But he scored three
goals, his resplacement scored three goals, and Ronaldo could be in danger.
We've been starting again. I thinkit's gonna start on the bench, but
(17:48):
it will be a statement that willcontinue to be made by Ramos because I
think he's gonna start again. Andyeah, Morocco be the contender. But
but Portugal as a good beating Switzerlandsix one. But will it continue?
Will the drama continue? That's interestingaspect. Portugal and Morocco faced each other
(18:14):
twice in their history, and bothtimes after World Cup. The first time
was in the Mexico nineteen eighty sixWorld Cup, a Group F matchup that
saw Morocco win three one, withabd Razekiri scoring a brace in the victory.
The second time was in twenty eighteen, in a Group B matchup in
the Russia World Cup that saw Portugalwin one nil, with the long goal
(18:37):
coming from the boot of none otherthan mister Headlines this week himself, Christiano
Ronaldo. Formations of choice Morocco forthree three Portugal four three three a different
four three three Morocco playing a moredefensive, more compact, a bit more
I guess suffocating for three three,Portugal trying to find their strikers, trying
(19:00):
to open up a bit more ofa wide, a bit more of a
fluid overlapping with midfielders attackers type offour three three. Portugal is one of
the most accurate teams when it comesto shots at this World Cup, with
forty percent of their shot being ontarget and with the clinical finish of the
Portuguese players, it could be along match for Morocco. Every Cinderella story
(19:23):
has a beginning, and I dobelieve that they also have an end,
and my prediction that is coming rightnow is that the clock strikes midnight,
the carriage the pumpkin is back tillthe carriage turns back into a pumpkin,
and Portugal wins by two in regulartime. But now it is time to
(19:47):
take a short break because when wecome back, we will of course break
down the biggest game of them all. And I did a long and hard
research on this one. And ofcourse the winner of this game controls the
English channel and of course the futureof the relationship between the two countries.
Right, no, no, allright, we'll talk about that and more
(20:08):
after we give a little airtime toour sponsors. Thank you for sponsoring this
show, and we'll be right backafter these short messages. If you like
(20:37):
this show, you can find thepodcast version on Soccer Today dot cea of
course, news articles available on thewebsite, and the magazine show on our
YouTube channel, YouTube dot com slashat soccer Today. Just google YouTube and
at soccer Today. That's the newYouTube handle, which is like a user
(20:59):
name, and you can find thaton YouTube. Just go to YouTube dot
com look for at soccer Today.You'll find the channel and you will find
a great content news article. Wehave a great article on Eastman KNA available
on the website right now where welook at his is Journey to Vicarage Road,
of course, where he will beplaying starting next week, next few
(21:21):
weeks for Watford. Let's now talkabout the biggest game, in my opinion,
the last game of the dockets,the last game of the quarterfinals,
that will determine, in my opinion, which team has the nicest and easiest
path or maybe best pass to afinal. I think it's going to be
tight. But that's an interesting gameright here. England versus France December tenth,
(21:47):
That is Saturday at two pm EasternAlbite Stadium on TSN and CTV in
Canada. Fox in the United StatesBig Fox of course, I Heart Radio,
TSN Radio, Serious XM Radio.The winner gets control of the channel.
It will be the third meeting atthe World Cup between these two rivals,
(22:08):
the first one being in nineteen eightytwo in England. Let's start in
history. England faced France thirty twotimes in all competitions that is, mostly
friendlies and other competitions all the wayto the World Cup, but with a
record of seventeen wins, nine lossesin five draws, England has the advantage
(22:30):
and Bape is the best striker inthis tournament so far five goals scored and
to the surprise of many, HarryKane has been the best passler, with
the only player having three assists.France has found a chemistry that does remind
me of Russia twenty eighteen and weall know how that ended. Speaking of
Embabe at the end of the groupstage, I did a research statistically looking
(22:52):
at his performance in those three gameswhile two and two point two games because
he played just barely a few minutesin the third group stage game, and
I was finding a lot of interestingaspect of his of his game is stats
were very high and to me,he was well, he was going to
win the World the Golden Boot.At that point, I knew they was
(23:15):
going to warn the goal the GoldenBoot, even though he was not top
of the goalst card. They werelike multiple players with three goals at that
point. But he had the highestexpected goal, the highest expected goals per
game, the highest shots and shotson target, the highest shot creating actions
or goal creating actions with his teammatesaround him too. If you count how
many shots created around you, thatdoes affect the efficiency. You could have
(23:37):
had a goal, one assist toseven shots on target nine like an average
of six point nine shots per gamein the tournament. So I knew he
was going to be very good.He might be the difference maker here.
But let's continue in preview this quarterfinalsmatchup, and we all know how that
ended. Going back to Russia twentyeighteen, that their chemistry this year remind
(24:00):
me of and Babe, you knowhe did miss training on Tuesday. He
has been open to the media toa point. He hasn't really talked to
the media, but he's talked tosome media or very controlled environments, mentioning
his obsession with this tournament. AndI predict he's going to finish with at
least a Golden Boot trophy, ifnot more like maybe maybe the trophy of
(24:26):
winner of this tournament, or whicheverthe case may be. But to me,
where the advantage comes here is thedeath of the roster because of France's
death. We know Raeinsterling is backwith the camp now, but do we
know how how he's doing. Ishe gonna be able to be at the
(24:48):
same level as they would need aRaheinsterling against a France that's a question.
But to me, it's the tacticalflexibility of France. Yes, they play
people out of possi Asian sometimes andwe're all wondering what the heck diz Deshon
is doing sometimes. But there's speedon the flanks with them, Billy kamevinga
Mbope. That's going to be atalent, very big challenge for the tactically
(25:12):
rigid English side. There are twoteams who like to play with the ball
and more on that later, witha high possession base percentage since the beginning
of the tournament, it's going tocome down to who will be efficient with
their opportunities in front of the net. And yes, you might know right
away what I'm going to predict withthis one if you think about that,
(25:33):
both teams play a similar formation fortwo three one and similar way of using
that formation. The big difference beingthe speed of the France players on the
flanks versus the speed of the Englishplayers on the flank, and the English
I guess strength will be in themiddle of the pitch if you look at
(25:55):
France and strength give me more onthe outside. If we look at form
and how the players have been playing. Let's go with my notes. When
it comes to this matchup, yeah, it's gonna be a good one.
(26:18):
It's a matchup between two teams withhigh possession France fifty eight percent possession.
This is the beginning of this tournamentsixty four For England. The opportunity is
an efficiency to finish in those chanceswill be what makes a difference. In
my opinion. France has generated anaverage of thirty two shots creating actions over
(26:40):
their World Cup so far, virtuallytwice as much as England has. The
three Lions only have created a goallike Wow, I'll get to my ratio,
but he shot creating actions about sixteenso far. I like to compare
expected goals and goal scored to gaugethe applicability factor of the performances, and
(27:04):
when I compare those ratios, Francereally has an and over England. France
eight point six expected goals for ninegoals scored, a goals expected factor that
I call ninety percent of their goalsare applicable. Ninety eight percent of their
(27:25):
goals were expected, hence replicable tome. When I look at England that
ratio, it is totally different.England has six point three expected goals and
yes, they are one of thehighest scoring attacks so far with twelve goals
scored. But when we do theratio of six point three expected goals divided
(27:48):
by twelve goal scored, that accountsfor fifty three percent of their goals were
expected coming from chances that are replicable, that are clear cut, that are
well that you should have scored onthem. That's fifty three. I mean
forty seven percent were individual play ofbrilliance or things similar to that. That's
(28:11):
a lot. That's almost fifty fiftyand you can't count on fifty fifties at
a World Cup to get victories.To me, only fifty percent of their
goals were replicable, and that's amassive edge for the Frenchmen. Also,
when I look at a defensive equivalentof that stat, and we'll get to
(28:34):
that stat in a second, butwhen I look at the equivalent on the
other side, on the defensive side, I also see a huge advantage for
France. So one of my favoritestats I've talked about earlier shot creating actions
(29:00):
I do like recoveries, interceptions andtackles together a whole lot. It gives
me a value of possibilities of recuperatingthe ball of keeping the ball, of
having the ball, of intercepting theball and getting the ball back. And
when you get it back in afifty fifty how many of those do you
(29:21):
recover? Can you intercept? Doyou tackle? Do you get that ball
back? So all those together,our tackles do indicate a certain amount of
pressure done too, and certain thedefensive type of game. So when you
have a high combination of all three, it does give to me at least
an indication that you're better than theother team in getting the ball back in
(29:44):
fifty fifty balls. Mostly you'll winyour duels defensive duels, hence the amount
of tackles, you'll get the ballback at a higher rate than the other
one. And altogether it gives youa certain amount of advantage, and it
gives me a numerical value of theirdefensive play that I can correlate between teams.
So I do like that a lot. Let's go and do that equations
(30:08):
for France and for England. Let'sstart with France, defending champions. France
has one hundred and ninety three recoveriesso far in this World Cup, forty
four interceptions and eighty eight tackles fora total of three hundred and twenty five.
Keep that in mind three twenty five. I'll circle back to it.
Let's go to England the three Lionsone eighty two recoveries, thirty interceptions and
(30:33):
forty nine tackles for a numerical valueof two sixty one. Big disparity between
the two and that indicates to me, like I was talking about a higher
potential of recovering the ball possession ifyou lose the ball, a higher capacity
of taking away the possession from theopponent. And if both teams fight for
(30:55):
the ball like they are going to, because it's two teams that like to
play with the well, the abilityto get the ball back might be what
tips the scale. And well,if you're looking at a team that is
used to playing well but playing upto the ability of their opponent, like
Friends, and you tip the scaleby just winning those duels, getting the
(31:17):
ball back if you lose it inthe midfield, and getting an opportunity for
your best striker, that mentions tome that well, my cashing prediction is
Mbope scores again. Den Belly findsthe space in front of Jude Bellingham and
(31:37):
it's a party on the chaus Eliseoh shas Eliza admitt it. You sang
along with me, Ali le blurbuy two goals and that is my cashing
prediction. And I know a lotof you out there are willing to fight
me. Well, I'm right hereat kevlarmey fight me on Twitter. Let
(32:05):
me know what you think of mypredictions. What is your prediction for this
before we say goodbye? I wantto look at the attack too, because
we've talked about defensively, we talkedabout they expect the goals, expected goals
against. Let's look at some ofFrance and England's statistics and number heading into
this amazingly. Well it's a hypetop match, but it's going to be
(32:28):
an amazing match and I think we'regoing to have one for the ages.
So let's look at the two attackswith multiple statistical values that I love and
gives me indication of who has anadvantage. Once again, because this is
France England, this is the twocountries. If I go down in my
genealogy, way down in my genealogyfour or five hundred years ago, well
(32:52):
you got a lot of those two. So here we go. Let's go
with the champions. Let's go withFrance. We've talked about their goals.
They have no one goals eight pointsix expected goal, an average per game
of two point fifteen expected goal,which means then they're expected to score at
least twice fifty eight percent average ofpossessions this year. So far this year
in the World Cup, they haveeighty five percent passing accuracy, a thirty
(33:15):
one point seventy five shown creating actionsper game and twenty two point seventy five
crosses per game. And to me, that's well, that could be how
they score one of their goals andI little cross that is whipped in and
found the head of a grabu orsomething. Goals twelve for England, six
(33:35):
point three expected goals for a pointfifty three percent fifty three I guess ratio
expect the goal per ninety of onepoint fifty eight possession average sixty four high
possession. But they're shot. Creatingactions are almost half of what Frances.
So they have the ball a littlebit more than France, but they do
half as less than France does.So that is what you need to remember.
(33:59):
Both teams to be efficient passing theball seven percent and sixteen crosses per
game for France so far, andthat is your France England preview. Will
take another short break when we comeback. We'll finish the show by looking
at Canada and how now with hindsight, they truly were doomed from the beginning.
(34:37):
Two out of eight, two teamsout of eight. We're in Canada's
group and they're still playing right nowas we speak. Two teams were there,
and then there was the second bestteam in the world according to the
FEE four world rankings, with Kevinde Brune might be the best player in
the entire world, and that wasa thirteam in Canada's group, and then
he had Canada. Canada was thanthe group of death. Canada was walking
(35:04):
in the shadow of the valley ofdeath. What other prayer for success?
We scored a goal. This groupwas harder than eighty six. Eighty six
was France. France wasn't what itis today. France in nineteen eighty six
was maybe closer to what Canada istoday than what France was in nineteen ninety
eight and mo onwards. Canada hadthe Soviet onion in their group in nineteen
(35:27):
eighty six. Yeah, that wasmaybe one of the biggest biggest and baddest
team in the entire world at thatpoint, like the pool of players that
could draft from it was like halfthe world almost and then he had Hungary,
who was still considered a powerhouse ofthe soccer world in nineteen eighty six.
So Canada was doomed from the beginning. In twenty twenty two with Croatia
(35:50):
runners up in twenty eighteen a coupleof the best players in the world with
Mudrich, Parischich and Mitrovich was amazingly. Kayakovernitcha also played amazingly and he has
Belgian who played like crap. Let'scall a spade a spade. The beat
Canada on the technicality because Canada didn'tpay attention for fifteen seconds, which I
guess it's not a technicality. Theyshould have but there was one moment of
(36:15):
laps focus and Canada paid for itby giving up a goal. In Canada's
the only one that created a goalagainst Morocco. Yes, it was an
own goal, it was given tothe Moroccan defender, but Canada created a
goal and it's the only team sofar to have created a goal against Morocco
and Montreal born bonu So Canada cankeep his head up high. As a
(36:39):
country. We can be criticizing,We can be critical on John Herdman's aspect
of F Croatia and that whole thing, or the tactical in adjustment in a
couple of the games that can bebroken down into learning opportunities for the next
time. Should he go, shouldhe stay. That's something maybe for the
next few weeks to ponder on.But for now, let's keep our head
(37:00):
high. Canada and until next time, which will be after the quarterfinals,
have a great soccer
Good day, good night, andwelcome to Soccer Today the podcast. I'm
Kevin Laramy and today we will previewthe quarterfinals of the World Cup, looking
at Croatia, Brazil, Netherlands,Argentina, Morocco, Portugal, England,
(00:32):
France. From a statistical and apragmatical point of view, we will be
looking at all that is important toknow heading into the last eight games of
this tournament, the quarterfinals, thesemi final of the final and the third
place match. Let's not forget thefamous third place match at Belgium one.
(00:56):
And maybe we will start with Belgium, because there's news concerning Belgium, the
Belgium national team, and then Azaretiring from international football a little bit surprising,
but the Belgium international the captain asof until now has it retired.
And this is an expert taken fromSoccer Today dot Ca, your brand new
(01:19):
website where you can get some informationand some analysis, news analysis and of
course the home of the podcast andthe video magazine Soccer Today dot Ca.
And of course this is a quotefrom a Semi El Sayed, a philosopher
in the Middle Ages in the Arabworld. The greatest challenges humans face throughout
(01:41):
their lives are twofolds, the challengeof where to start and the challenge of
when to stop. And Edinazar hasdecided to stop his Red Devil's career right
here, right now, after thisWorld Cup. This is taken from his
Instagram page, where he mentions thefollowing, A page turns today. Thank
(02:08):
you for your love, thank youfor your unparalleled support, Thank you for
all this happiness he shared us sincetwo thousand and eight, I have decided
to put an end to my internationalcareer. The succession is ready. I
will miss you and then aazah.He made his debut for the national team
(02:28):
at seventeen years and thirty three hundredand sixteen days old and he friendly against
Looks on Board in two thousand andeight. It took him three years to
first score a goal for Belgium andhe did so against Kazakhstan in he friendly.
Going in and out of the startingeleven in his first three years with
the Red Devils, he was partof the famous Golden Generation that he's also
(02:53):
the first one to retire from.We will see if this is the first
of many for Belgium. Other playersmight follow suit. Following Cape the captain,
he was named the captain before Russiatwenty eighteen, and he did captain
that team to the best result everfor Belgium, which was the third place.
They beat England in that famous fora third place match too nil and
(03:15):
he got his third Men of theMatch honors in that match, and it
was of course the third of thetournament, and there was a feat that
has not been accomplished since and itwas the only player in that tournament that
did so. He finished Russia twentyeighteen with three goals and two assists.
And after the fact, the FIFATechnical Study Group, which is a group
(03:37):
that looks at statistics, advanced stasand also match reports and talk around.
In my mind, they talk arounda round table, you know, and
they all have like computers and calculatorsand Texas instruments, advanced calculators and they
just make really complicated graphics and theytalk about what the results of the World
(03:57):
Cup mean and who stood out.And he was awarded the Silver Ball at
that tournament, being voted the secondbest player of the entire tournament and given
a silver Ball. Here are hisnumbers with the national team the Red Devils
in his entire career. One hundredtwenty six Star games, one hundred and
five starts, almost nine thousand minutesto be precise, eight thousand, six
(04:20):
hundred and ninety eight. That doesinclude Qatar twenty twenty two thirty three goals,
thirty six assists. Minutes per goalwith the national team from his beginning
two is end is two hundred andsixty four minutes per goal, so he
scores once every three and a halfgames for the Belgium and national team.
(04:40):
He did score ten times from thepenalty spot, and he has gathered an
expected goal value per game at theWorld Cup of zero point forty five forty
six to be precise, and thatis almost point five, which means it's
a goal every two games at theWorld Cup level. That is his statistics
for his entire career. It willbe interesting to see how his club career
(05:03):
continues and if he can focus onmaybe reestablishing the level he had before all
the injuries in his transfer to RealMadrid. At the Nazarre, of course,
famously was developed by multiple clubs.A little French was his club that
got into the highest level in France. He stayed there almost eight years,
(05:25):
went to Chelsea for almost five andeventually ended up with Real Madrid, which
was one of his dreams. Butthe dream really turned into a Ninemare quite
quickly. For at the Nazarre,injuries and really expectations that were never really
met up until today with the Galacticos. But now that we've talked about at
(05:48):
the Nazal, maybe it's time tofocus and start looking at what is going
to be a Battle Royale starting Fridayten am Croatia Brazil. Who's the favorite,
Who's gonna end up putting then oneinto submission? And of course I'm
(06:10):
making all these references to wrestling,because to me, this is a Battle
Royal. There's a couple favorites anda couple of my favorite and if you
look in the description of this showor you look on my social media,
I had some fun with some graphicsand made a little bit of wrestling references.
So let's go. Let's talk aboutthe first one, the first matchup
in the quarterfinals, Croatia Brazil ringthe Damn Bell. It's at first of
(06:38):
all ten am on December ninth.You can listen to it and watch it
in Canada on tsn CTV Fox inthe United States on the radio here in
Canada. I heard radio stations TSNRadio series XM. You can listen to
that game. I think it's goingto be very interesting one. After needing
(06:58):
penalties to get over the surprising BlueSamurai of Japan, Croatia is now heading
to Education City Stadium to face Asof right now, the odds on favorite
to win the World Cup Brazil.Yeah, the rd odds on favorite.
They are my favorite. Also almosttwice as heavy favorite as France, even
(07:19):
though France are the defending champions.Right now, if you want to batch
on Brazil to win the World Cup, you about a dollar. You get
two seventy five back, which isnot amazing, but it is what it
is. They are a heavy favoriteto win the tournament. And the Blazers,
which is a nickname, one ofthe nicknames of course of Croatia.
They're gonna have to do something they'venever done before. They're gonna have to
(07:41):
beat Brazil, and they've never beatenBrazil. They have never won against Brazil.
They have faced them four times inthe past, three losses, one
draw. They face each other twiceat the World Cup and the first time
was in two thousand and six inBerlin during the Germany Old Cup and this
game in Berlin was in Group Fand it was their opening game of the
(08:05):
tournament for both of them. Brazilwon one nothing kaka with the scoring on
that day at a forty fourth minuteand a young Luca Modrich was on the
bench but did not play on thatday. He was looking for minutes,
but still a bit too young andnot chosen. He did not make an
(08:26):
appearance during this game, but whathe win for Brazil. Of course,
this was the first World Cup gamecoming after winning two thousand and two.
Winning the Japan career World Cup intwo thousand and two, moving on to
be a heavy favorite in Germany didn'tturn out so well, and we can
look at that on another jay.Let's now look at the other game that
(08:48):
happened between the two at the WorldCup, and this one was in Brazil.
It was in twenty fourteen in Salpoloand Saopolo, that's where Salapolo FC
plays and Nymar scored twice. Oscar. I remember Oscar a lot because at
that moment he was a superstar forChelsea, one of my favorite players ever.
If you don't know, I'm aChelsea supporter. While supporter is a
(09:11):
big word. I'm a Chelsea,a fish Ronado. I think I would
make more sense. I leaned towardsChelsea. But that's about it, you
know. But he scored the thirdone for to sell us out there with
a nymar twice Marcello score but noton the right neat and it finished three
one for Brazil. Again, Brazilhas never lost to Croatia any friendly position
(09:35):
or during a game. Both teamsplay a different type of soccer, A
very offensively geared four two three oneis played by Brazil when we look at
Croatia, a possession based, afinding the right opportunity base. Funny how
they tried to play direct the lastgame they played didn't quite work out.
(09:56):
We'll see what what I call whattactical awareness, what tactical approach you're gonna
break here against Brazil. It's goingto be a four three three And here
are my notes. And again ifyou're looking for a written version, you
can find a written version of myquarterfinals preview on the website at Soccer Today
dot cate. So we'll go alittle bit deep dive here into what I
(10:20):
call the paying statistics, and ifyou want my prediction later stay tuned.
I'll try to give you a predictionwhere you can make some a little bit
of money. Let's look at howBrazil is going to be Croatia. First
of all, I don't know whattime it is where you are, but
(10:41):
where it is for me, it'sa bit coffee time. Every time,
it's coffee time for me. SoCroatia is the team left in the competition
with the highest expected goals against valuea five point out, and I think
they're gonna struggle against what could saythe best attack left in the tournament,
(11:07):
Brazil, which hasn't expected gold valueof nine point four. The second highest
is you know, expected assists forthem a six point five. By the
way, the only team that hasmore expected golden Brazil is Germany. And
we all know what happened to Germanyin this tournament. They forgot to the
defense and move on and to preparen see Fleck. I don't know how
(11:31):
you get from that one. Speakingof but I don't know how to get
over a bad performance. Lewis Enriquehas quit, the manager of Spain,
got back home after the disappointment oflosing to Morocco and penalties and he quit.
(11:52):
Lewis Enrique was going to quit regardless, he's looking for a club team
to go back to. Will beinteresting how he's perceived after this failure of
Spain in this tournament. Let's nowlook continue to look at Brazil. So
I talked about the nine point fourexpected goal value in this tournament so far,
(12:13):
six point five are he's expected assists. So not only do they score
a lot of goals, they scorea lot of goals by playing together,
one of the highest, second highestin the entire tournamentro far they expected assists
value. And to me, oneI guess my darling statistics over the last
few months has been the shot creatingactions, because I do believe it indicates
(12:37):
inability and a proficiency to get creativityof the ball and shots. It's one
thing. Creating a shot is what'simportant. Because when you look at replicability,
which is my word of the day, of replicability. I'm going to
talk about that later when I talkabout France and England, do not miss
that preview. But replicability is important. When you look at a team's potential
(13:03):
to win a game, lose agame, how do they replicate their goals?
Are they expected goals close to theirgoal value. That is to me
what replicability is. But here's ashot creating action. The more shot you
can create, the higher are yourprobability of scoring a goal. And we've
talked about how they allow a lotof goals against at least a lot of
chances they're expected goals against. Valueis big for Croatia. While one of
(13:26):
the teams that creates a most actionthe most shots are Brazil and they have
one hundred thirty three so far inall their games, with an average of
thirty three point twenty five, whichis basically thirty three shots or created shots
during a game. If you scoreevery four every five shots, which is
maybe even less than they do,you score three four times against a team
(13:48):
that is expected to give maybe agoal at least in this one, at
least I believe, because I think, and that is time to take out
your cash, because I believe Brazilwill winn by two goals. That is
my prediction. Brazil by two goalsin the regulation. It's going to be
a beautiful day in Rio, abeautiful day in South Paolo, a beautiful
(14:16):
day in Porto Alegre. It's goingto be party on the beach in Brazil.
Let's move on to our second game, the second game that will take
place on Friday, and that isthe Netherlands versus Argentina. This one's at
(14:37):
two pm Eastern eleven am Pacific.It will be at Louis sale A Stadium
once again on TSNTTV and Canada Foxthe United States, iHeartRadio, TSN Radio
and Sirious Act Sound. One ofthe surprises I guess left in the tournament
the Netherlands playing really well with MemphisDepie. Let's not forget Cody Gakuo who
(14:58):
scored thirty score three goals already.One statistic that to me is very important
is Memphis to pay forty three goalsin eighty five games with the Netherlands and
twenty nine assists. That's a veryhigh, very high output by the striker,
and he is back in form.He has been back with his team
(15:20):
over the last couple of games andreally showing how this team could be dangerous.
They're gonna face Argentina with Lanol MessiLeo Messi. That's going to be
very difficult, but still I believethat it could be closer to what we
think they'll need. All the attackthat they can muster because and you can
find those notes called Kevin notes onmy preview article on the website. Well,
(15:46):
Argentina has the best defense in thetournament according to the dance Metrics,
with an extremely small one point threeexpected goals against value in four games,
an average of point thirty three goalsgiven a game, and that is very
very low. The Netherlands haven't expectedgoals against value of three point nine with
an average of one point four.So if this goes to chock, there's
(16:08):
one goal that's scored and it's givenup by the Netherlands, and this could
be the difference maker in this match. And I do believe Argentina will win
a close affair. Once again,take out your wallet. Argentina wins a
close affair one nil in extra time. Messi puts it back in the net.
(16:30):
At the end of the game.Argentina wins one nil in extra time.
Messi the goal scorer. You heardit first. And if that's the
case, well it's going to bea joyful day at the Soccer Today headquarters.
Let's now move to the third game, the first one on the Saturday
morning, Morocco, Portugal, SaturdayDecember tenth, ten am at Altumana Stadium.
(17:00):
It's going to be an interesting one. There's a lot of drama on
the Portugal side. Christiano Ronaldo lefton the bench at the beginning of last
year. Last game was the firsttime since the mid two thousands that he
was left after starting eleven for Portugalwhen he's healthy, of course, and
his replacement Gonna Salo Ramos Santos.I forgot his first name. Let's let's
(17:26):
look, because that's quite important.So what's his first name? Say it's
Gonzalo. Let me check. Letme check because that's important. Anyways,
we'll talk about it when we lookin a second. But he scored three
goals, his resplacement scored three goals, and Ronaldo could be in danger.
We've been starting again. I thinkit's gonna start on the bench, but
(17:48):
it will be a statement that willcontinue to be made by Ramos because I
think he's gonna start again. Andyeah, Morocco be the contender. But
but Portugal as a good beating Switzerlandsix one. But will it continue?
Will the drama continue? That's interestingaspect. Portugal and Morocco faced each other
(18:14):
twice in their history, and bothtimes after World Cup. The first time
was in the Mexico nineteen eighty sixWorld Cup, a Group F matchup that
saw Morocco win three one, withabd Razekiri scoring a brace in the victory.
The second time was in twenty eighteen, in a Group B matchup in
the Russia World Cup that saw Portugalwin one nil, with the long goal
(18:37):
coming from the boot of none otherthan mister Headlines this week himself, Christiano
Ronaldo. Formations of choice Morocco forthree three Portugal four three three a different
four three three Morocco playing a moredefensive, more compact, a bit more
I guess suffocating for three three,Portugal trying to find their strikers, trying
(19:00):
to open up a bit more ofa wide, a bit more of a
fluid overlapping with midfielders attackers type offour three three. Portugal is one of
the most accurate teams when it comesto shots at this World Cup, with
forty percent of their shot being ontarget and with the clinical finish of the
Portuguese players, it could be along match for Morocco. Every Cinderella story
(19:23):
has a beginning, and I dobelieve that they also have an end,
and my prediction that is coming rightnow is that the clock strikes midnight,
the carriage the pumpkin is back tillthe carriage turns back into a pumpkin,
and Portugal wins by two in regulartime. But now it is time to
(19:47):
take a short break because when wecome back, we will of course break
down the biggest game of them all. And I did a long and hard
research on this one. And ofcourse the winner of this game controls the
English channel and of course the futureof the relationship between the two countries.
Right, no, no, allright, we'll talk about that and more
(20:08):
after we give a little airtime toour sponsors. Thank you for sponsoring this
show, and we'll be right backafter these short messages. If you like
(20:37):
this show, you can find thepodcast version on Soccer Today dot cea of
course, news articles available on thewebsite, and the magazine show on our
YouTube channel, YouTube dot com slashat soccer Today. Just google YouTube and
at soccer Today. That's the newYouTube handle, which is like a user
(20:59):
name, and you can find thaton YouTube. Just go to YouTube dot
com look for at soccer Today.You'll find the channel and you will find
a great content news article. Wehave a great article on Eastman KNA available
on the website right now where welook at his is Journey to Vicarage Road,
of course, where he will beplaying starting next week, next few
(21:21):
weeks for Watford. Let's now talkabout the biggest game, in my opinion,
the last game of the dockets,the last game of the quarterfinals,
that will determine, in my opinion, which team has the nicest and easiest
path or maybe best pass to afinal. I think it's going to be
tight. But that's an interesting gameright here. England versus France December tenth,
(21:47):
That is Saturday at two pm EasternAlbite Stadium on TSN and CTV in
Canada. Fox in the United StatesBig Fox of course, I Heart Radio,
TSN Radio, Serious XM Radio.The winner gets control of the channel.
It will be the third meeting atthe World Cup between these two rivals,
(22:08):
the first one being in nineteen eightytwo in England. Let's start in
history. England faced France thirty twotimes in all competitions that is, mostly
friendlies and other competitions all the wayto the World Cup, but with a
record of seventeen wins, nine lossesin five draws, England has the advantage
(22:30):
and Bape is the best striker inthis tournament so far five goals scored and
to the surprise of many, HarryKane has been the best passler, with
the only player having three assists.France has found a chemistry that does remind
me of Russia twenty eighteen and weall know how that ended. Speaking of
Embabe at the end of the groupstage, I did a research statistically looking
(22:52):
at his performance in those three gameswhile two and two point two games because
he played just barely a few minutesin the third group stage game, and
I was finding a lot of interestingaspect of his of his game is stats
were very high and to me,he was well, he was going to
win the World the Golden Boot.At that point, I knew they was
(23:15):
going to warn the goal the GoldenBoot, even though he was not top
of the goalst card. They werelike multiple players with three goals at that
point. But he had the highestexpected goal, the highest expected goals per
game, the highest shots and shotson target, the highest shot creating actions
or goal creating actions with his teammatesaround him too. If you count how
many shots created around you, thatdoes affect the efficiency. You could have
(23:37):
had a goal, one assist toseven shots on target nine like an average
of six point nine shots per gamein the tournament. So I knew he
was going to be very good.He might be the difference maker here.
But let's continue in preview this quarterfinalsmatchup, and we all know how that
ended. Going back to Russia twentyeighteen, that their chemistry this year remind
(24:00):
me of and Babe, you knowhe did miss training on Tuesday. He
has been open to the media toa point. He hasn't really talked to
the media, but he's talked tosome media or very controlled environments, mentioning
his obsession with this tournament. AndI predict he's going to finish with at
least a Golden Boot trophy, ifnot more like maybe maybe the trophy of
(24:26):
winner of this tournament, or whicheverthe case may be. But to me,
where the advantage comes here is thedeath of the roster because of France's
death. We know Raeinsterling is backwith the camp now, but do we
know how how he's doing. Ishe gonna be able to be at the
(24:48):
same level as they would need aRaheinsterling against a France that's a question.
But to me, it's the tacticalflexibility of France. Yes, they play
people out of possi Asian sometimes andwe're all wondering what the heck diz Deshon
is doing sometimes. But there's speedon the flanks with them, Billy kamevinga
Mbope. That's going to be atalent, very big challenge for the tactically
(25:12):
rigid English side. There are twoteams who like to play with the ball
and more on that later, witha high possession base percentage since the beginning
of the tournament, it's going tocome down to who will be efficient with
their opportunities in front of the net. And yes, you might know right
away what I'm going to predict withthis one if you think about that,
(25:33):
both teams play a similar formation fortwo three one and similar way of using
that formation. The big difference beingthe speed of the France players on the
flanks versus the speed of the Englishplayers on the flank, and the English
I guess strength will be in themiddle of the pitch if you look at
(25:55):
France and strength give me more onthe outside. If we look at form
and how the players have been playing. Let's go with my notes. When
it comes to this matchup, yeah, it's gonna be a good one.
(26:18):
It's a matchup between two teams withhigh possession France fifty eight percent possession.
This is the beginning of this tournamentsixty four For England. The opportunity is
an efficiency to finish in those chanceswill be what makes a difference. In
my opinion. France has generated anaverage of thirty two shots creating actions over
(26:40):
their World Cup so far, virtuallytwice as much as England has. The
three Lions only have created a goallike Wow, I'll get to my ratio,
but he shot creating actions about sixteenso far. I like to compare
expected goals and goal scored to gaugethe applicability factor of the performances, and
(27:04):
when I compare those ratios, Francereally has an and over England. France
eight point six expected goals for ninegoals scored, a goals expected factor that
I call ninety percent of their goalsare applicable. Ninety eight percent of their
(27:25):
goals were expected, hence replicable tome. When I look at England that
ratio, it is totally different.England has six point three expected goals and
yes, they are one of thehighest scoring attacks so far with twelve goals
scored. But when we do theratio of six point three expected goals divided
(27:48):
by twelve goal scored, that accountsfor fifty three percent of their goals were
expected coming from chances that are replicable, that are clear cut, that are
well that you should have scored onthem. That's fifty three. I mean
forty seven percent were individual play ofbrilliance or things similar to that. That's
(28:11):
a lot. That's almost fifty fiftyand you can't count on fifty fifties at
a World Cup to get victories.To me, only fifty percent of their
goals were replicable, and that's amassive edge for the Frenchmen. Also,
when I look at a defensive equivalentof that stat, and we'll get to
(28:34):
that stat in a second, butwhen I look at the equivalent on the
other side, on the defensive side, I also see a huge advantage for
France. So one of my favoritestats I've talked about earlier shot creating actions
(29:00):
I do like recoveries, interceptions andtackles together a whole lot. It gives
me a value of possibilities of recuperatingthe ball of keeping the ball, of
having the ball, of intercepting theball and getting the ball back. And
when you get it back in afifty fifty how many of those do you
(29:21):
recover? Can you intercept? Doyou tackle? Do you get that ball
back? So all those together,our tackles do indicate a certain amount of
pressure done too, and certain thedefensive type of game. So when you
have a high combination of all three, it does give to me at least
an indication that you're better than theother team in getting the ball back in
(29:44):
fifty fifty balls. Mostly you'll winyour duels defensive duels, hence the amount
of tackles, you'll get the ballback at a higher rate than the other
one. And altogether it gives youa certain amount of advantage, and it
gives me a numerical value of theirdefensive play that I can correlate between teams.
So I do like that a lot. Let's go and do that equations
(30:08):
for France and for England. Let'sstart with France, defending champions. France
has one hundred and ninety three recoveriesso far in this World Cup, forty
four interceptions and eighty eight tackles fora total of three hundred and twenty five.
Keep that in mind three twenty five. I'll circle back to it.
Let's go to England the three Lionsone eighty two recoveries, thirty interceptions and
(30:33):
forty nine tackles for a numerical valueof two sixty one. Big disparity between
the two and that indicates to me, like I was talking about a higher
potential of recovering the ball possession ifyou lose the ball, a higher capacity
of taking away the possession from theopponent. And if both teams fight for
(30:55):
the ball like they are going to, because it's two teams that like to
play with the well, the abilityto get the ball back might be what
tips the scale. And well,if you're looking at a team that is
used to playing well but playing upto the ability of their opponent, like
Friends, and you tip the scaleby just winning those duels, getting the
(31:17):
ball back if you lose it inthe midfield, and getting an opportunity for
your best striker, that mentions tome that well, my cashing prediction is
Mbope scores again. Den Belly findsthe space in front of Jude Bellingham and
(31:37):
it's a party on the chaus Eliseoh shas Eliza admitt it. You sang
along with me, Ali le blurbuy two goals and that is my cashing
prediction. And I know a lotof you out there are willing to fight
me. Well, I'm right hereat kevlarmey fight me on Twitter. Let
(32:05):
me know what you think of mypredictions. What is your prediction for this
before we say goodbye? I wantto look at the attack too, because
we've talked about defensively, we talkedabout they expect the goals, expected goals
against. Let's look at some ofFrance and England's statistics and number heading into
this amazingly. Well it's a hypetop match, but it's going to be
(32:28):
an amazing match and I think we'regoing to have one for the ages.
So let's look at the two attackswith multiple statistical values that I love and
gives me indication of who has anadvantage. Once again, because this is
France England, this is the twocountries. If I go down in my
genealogy, way down in my genealogyfour or five hundred years ago, well
(32:52):
you got a lot of those two. So here we go. Let's go
with the champions. Let's go withFrance. We've talked about their goals.
They have no one goals eight pointsix expected goal, an average per game
of two point fifteen expected goal,which means then they're expected to score at
least twice fifty eight percent average ofpossessions this year. So far this year
in the World Cup, they haveeighty five percent passing accuracy, a thirty
(33:15):
one point seventy five shown creating actionsper game and twenty two point seventy five
crosses per game. And to me, that's well, that could be how
they score one of their goals andI little cross that is whipped in and
found the head of a grabu orsomething. Goals twelve for England, six
(33:35):
point three expected goals for a pointfifty three percent fifty three I guess ratio
expect the goal per ninety of onepoint fifty eight possession average sixty four high
possession. But they're shot. Creatingactions are almost half of what Frances.
So they have the ball a littlebit more than France, but they do
half as less than France does.So that is what you need to remember.
(33:59):
Both teams to be efficient passing theball seven percent and sixteen crosses per
game for France so far, andthat is your France England preview. Will
take another short break when we comeback. We'll finish the show by looking
at Canada and how now with hindsight, they truly were doomed from the beginning.
(34:37):
Two out of eight, two teamsout of eight. We're in Canada's
group and they're still playing right nowas we speak. Two teams were there,
and then there was the second bestteam in the world according to the
FEE four world rankings, with Kevinde Brune might be the best player in
the entire world, and that wasa thirteam in Canada's group, and then
he had Canada. Canada was thanthe group of death. Canada was walking
(35:04):
in the shadow of the valley ofdeath. What other prayer for success?
We scored a goal. This groupwas harder than eighty six. Eighty six
was France. France wasn't what itis today. France in nineteen eighty six
was maybe closer to what Canada istoday than what France was in nineteen ninety
eight and mo onwards. Canada hadthe Soviet onion in their group in nineteen
(35:27):
eighty six. Yeah, that wasmaybe one of the biggest biggest and baddest
team in the entire world at thatpoint, like the pool of players that
could draft from it was like halfthe world almost and then he had Hungary,
who was still considered a powerhouse ofthe soccer world in nineteen eighty six.
So Canada was doomed from the beginning. In twenty twenty two with Croatia
(35:50):
runners up in twenty eighteen a coupleof the best players in the world with
Mudrich, Parischich and Mitrovich was amazingly. Kayakovernitcha also played amazingly and he has
Belgian who played like crap. Let'scall a spade a spade. The beat
Canada on the technicality because Canada didn'tpay attention for fifteen seconds, which I
guess it's not a technicality. Theyshould have but there was one moment of
(36:15):
laps focus and Canada paid for itby giving up a goal. In Canada's
the only one that created a goalagainst Morocco. Yes, it was an
own goal, it was given tothe Moroccan defender, but Canada created a
goal and it's the only team sofar to have created a goal against Morocco
and Montreal born bonu So Canada cankeep his head up high. As a
(36:39):
country. We can be criticizing,We can be critical on John Herdman's aspect
of F Croatia and that whole thing, or the tactical in adjustment in a
couple of the games that can bebroken down into learning opportunities for the next
time. Should he go, shouldhe stay. That's something maybe for the
next few weeks to ponder on.But for now, let's keep our head
(37:00):
high. Canada and until next time, which will be after the quarterfinals,
have a great soccer
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