December 16, 2022 • 44 mins
Join sports statistician and soccer expert Kevin Laramee as he breaks down all aspects of the Qatar 2022 World Cup Final between Lionel Messi's Argentina and Kylian Mbappé's France.
Stats, standings, brackets, comparisons of offenses, defenses, starting XIs, and more!
Who will stand in the confetti on Sunday?
Kevin will be on CTV News Channel at 6:00 pm E on Sunday, December, 18th to break down the final.
You can find a written preview at https://soccertoday.ca
You can support the channel on Patreon at https://patreon.com/soccertoday
You can follow our different Twitter accounts:
Kevin https://twitter.com/KevLaramee
Soccer Today https://twitter.com/soccertodayca
Until next time, have a great soccer!
Stats, standings, brackets, comparisons of offenses, defenses, starting XIs, and more!
Who will stand in the confetti on Sunday?
Kevin will be on CTV News Channel at 6:00 pm E on Sunday, December, 18th to break down the final.
You can find a written preview at https://soccertoday.ca
You can support the channel on Patreon at https://patreon.com/soccertoday
You can follow our different Twitter accounts:
Kevin https://twitter.com/KevLaramee
Soccer Today https://twitter.com/soccertodayca
Until next time, have a great soccer!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
(00:12):
Good day, good night, andwelcome to my World Cup preview show.
I'm Kevin Laromay and this is ourWorld Cup Final preview. I hope you're
doing well, Ken Laromai. Welcometo Soccer Today, the magazine, the
(00:33):
podcast available everywhere you get all yourfavorite shows. I'm Kevin Lamy, sports
statistician and soccer expert breaking down theWorld Cup Final from Argentina's point of view,
from France's point of view. Wewill look, of course at all
the numbers, will break down statisticallywhy I believe one of those two teams
(00:56):
has a small advantage and we'll endup lifting the trophy. We'll end up
lifting six point one hundred and seventyfive kilograms of gold of eighteen carat gold,
which by the way, it's worthabout two hundred and twenty thousand dollars
US with the prices today. Butwe got a really good show ahead of
(01:19):
us. We're going to break downtoday, of course, once we saw
in this tournament for France, forArgentina, for Messy, for Mbope,
we will look at all the differentmetrics for the attack, for the defense,
even miscellaneous. Yes, a littlereference to die Hard. It is
classified under m for miscellaneous. We'realso going to look at well, one
(01:47):
of my favorites statistic coming out ofthis World Cup, FIFA has given us
at FI dot com some interesting metricsin the channels and the breakthrough in the
final third, the final third entries, and we're gonna look at how that
has influence a result of games andhow that might dictate where the play,
where the onus of play takes placeon Sunday. But a great philosopher once
(02:12):
said, to know where you're going, you're gonna know well where you've been.
But before that, I want toinvite YouTube subscribe to our podcasts.
Everywhere you find your podcasts and toour website Soccer Today dot c, a
news analysis. You can find apodcast and the magazine show there as well,
and you can also find a lotmore everywhere you find your favorite podcasts
(02:37):
and all. I also would liketo draw your attention to YouTube. Subscribe
on the YouTube channel. If you'rewatching us here on YouTube, thank you
for subscribing to our channel. We'reall the way to six thirty something and
with your help we can continue ourjourney to a thousand subscribers. And of
course you can find this podcast everywhereyou find your favorite podcasts Spotify, Google
(03:00):
podcast, Spreaker and Apple podcasts.As always, to note where you have
been is all useful, especially inthe World Cup. Let's look at the
journey through final the road to thefinal for Argentina for also France. Let's
(03:22):
starts with Argentina Group C. Theystarted with losing to Saudi Arabia. That's
how you start your World Cup.You lose to the team who finishes fourth.
A wake up call and Messi withhindsight mentioned that the loss to Saudi
(03:45):
Arabia was actually beneficial. It wokethem up and showed them the way,
told them that there won't be aneasy one and you will have to get
your act together to produce a decentWorld Cup. They turned it around and
finished top of their group in groupssee Argentina winning two games and finishing above
(04:06):
Poland, above Mexico and above SaudiArabia. Taught by the group meant decent
seating in the round of sixteen asArgentina faced Australia and prevailed against the SOCCA
roots. We will look at thebracket in a second as we now transport
(04:27):
ourselves to Group D. France Australia, Tunisia and Denmark. France Wonder Group
lost the last game against Tunisia.They were already through after the first two
games. He did a lot ofrotations. They rotated nine out of eleven
players in the last group match gamethat they lost to Tunisia. But that
(04:54):
is not necessarily important as we speak, because with that loss they're able to
wrest some players. They were ableto show a lot in the knockout stage
because with those results it led tothis France Poland in the round is sixteen.
There is a world out there thatArgentina finished second of their group and
(05:17):
they would have faced France in theround at sixteen, but no, that
did not happen. Argentina won theirgroup and was in the round at sixteen.
It's funny how all the upsets,all the drama. Morocco's great Cinderella
run, Croatia's great run to thesummis they limited Brazil turned out the second
(05:42):
and third favorite the entire tournament,faced each other in yeah, in the
final of this tournament. But quitean impressive road and we can continue to
look at the road if you wantto bear with me here for a second,
because I think it's impressive. Argentinabeat Australia. Then they moved to
the Netherlands and olyn played well.They had a great tournament. Memphis de
(06:04):
Pie, Cody Gagbo. Let's notforget those two strikers played very well.
But Louis van hall and that wholeMessi, Louis van Haal, the the
emotion that comes out of Messy,the anger, the win at all costs
mentality, influence by the infamous DiegoMaradonna. But the Netherlands and Leuvana Halle
(06:27):
will remember this game for a longtime. From two nil up Argentina two
two. Then, of course weall know how that ended up. Messi
yelling at Dutch players and even inthe post press conference, it was very
very interesting to seem the fire ofMessi and how Messy was not necessarily just
(06:50):
being a good guy. No pressrelations, no training, no cassette,
no oh yeah, I'm happy tobe here. No no, no,
no. This is the win atall costs. This isn't going to get
under your skin, This isn't goingto do what I need to to win.
But we'll see when we break downthis game a little closer later that
(07:14):
might actually cost a lot for Argentina, but France also had a pretty difficult
path to the final. We forgotto mention Argentina to be Croatia in the
Semits just a few days ago,we remember, but Francis path Poland,
of course, and in England inthe South in the quarterfinal beating England the
(07:39):
revenge of the Channel War on theend of the year. Or of course,
then France and Morocco a game fullof friendship on both sides. They
share language of course, with Frenchbeing one of the languages of Morocco,
and of course of France obviously friendshipon both sides, and babe sure for
(08:00):
France with Achimi of Morocco. Butat the end of the day, the
Frenchman got the job done and qualifiedfor their second straight final. They are
the defending champions. Let's not forgetArgentina was in the final in twenty fourteen,
losing one nothing to Germany in Brazilfourteen. As we are back right
(08:22):
here live in the Soccer Today headquarters. Thanks for joining us. If you
are joining us live on YouTube orpodcasts, it's been a pleasure being with
you over this World Cup. Whilewe reboot this show Soccer Today dot C
for all the information. We willbe on CTV News channel all throughout the
weekend. You can find me onSaturday morning at ten am breaking down the
(08:43):
beginning of the game of the thirdplace game between Croatia and Morocco. You
can find me also Sunday six pmon CTV News. I'll be breaking down
the entire tournament and talking about thefinal that I am predicting on today's show.
My prediction will be at the endof the show right here on Soccer
(09:03):
Today as we start to break downthe matchup. While it's a third time
not four time. Then they facedeach other in the World Cup, well
just a few years ago in twentyeighteen and round and sixteen. That's the
latest matchup at the World Cup betweenthe two and France got the better of
Argentina four three. France eventually endedup in the confetti, winning the entire
(09:26):
tournament. They eliminated Messi in Russiain twenty eighteen and a round of sixteen,
and this led to a bit ofa revolution in the Argentinian national team,
led to the appointment of Scoloni,who revolutionalized a bit how this team
plays and a bit more of aI would say flexibility. Tactically, they've
(09:46):
been moving from a three to fivetwo to a four to two with success
during this tournament. Adapting they arenot only formation but also tactics from game
to game to get the most outof messy and to get the most out
of the rest of the attack.Which, well, it's that time.
It is time to break down theattack. It is time to look at
(10:09):
a couple of different metrics that willtell us more about the forces, the
strength and of course who has anadvantage between the two And of course I'm
going to get you the proper graphicright here on the screen. So to
me, there's a couple of waysto see this. It's two of the
(10:31):
most prolific attacks in the tournament.They're up there with England, They're up
there also with teams like Portugal.The four best attack in the entire tournament.
It's England, France, Argentina,Portugal thirteen and twelve goals respectively,
so that's equal. And we lookat the expected goals and you can see
(10:52):
on your screen or if you're watchinglistening just to the podcast, you can
find the graphic on our website SoccerToday dot C the preview articles have the
same graphic that we have on theshow here, so you can look at
the numbers that we're talking about,so virtually identically expected goals for both teams
when we're talking about the attack elevenpoint eight for Argentina, eleven point six
(11:16):
for Friends. So that's not wherewe can see an advantage. So let's
move on. Expect the goal pernine well, again very similar, one
eighty seven three, not a bigdifference. Possession average two teams that perform
better when they have the ball lessthan fifty five percent. We can see
here that on average in the tournament, it's in fifty eight and fifty two.
(11:37):
They had more after their first game, and every single game since then
their possession average has decreased. Sonow we look at the shot on target
per ninety. That's an impressive statisticto me because they get about five shots
onto our get per game, whichmeans that they get three to four scoring
chances per game at least, andthat is a good number, a good
(12:00):
statistic, and we'll keep that inmind. So we'll talk about the short
the shot creating actions SCA. Ilove a SCA. It does indicate an
ability to a team to put theball on target, to create that shot,
to create that space, to createthe shot. All those actions count.
So when you look France, there'sa bit of an advantage here.
(12:20):
For France, France has one hundredand sixty seven shot creating actions throughout the
entire tournament in six games played.When we look at Argentina one forty three,
it's not that much, but it'sone sixth of the number or give
or take. So it's a limitof an advantage here for France. France
can create more often with the ball. But to me, you combine the
(12:43):
shot creating ability of France with howthey score goals, because as much as
we talk about prolific attack and howArgentina has scored a lot of goals,
where did the goal come from worthyreplicable? Are they expected? Yes,
(13:03):
the answer is yes for that,But are they coming from the run of
play? Well, not really whenit's come to Argentina. Argentina has a
non penalty expected goal of eight pointnine, almost three full points below what
they do have for France. Andthen you look at the penalty scored.
(13:24):
We'll talk about the penalties a bitlater, and we talk about Messi and
in babe, But there's penalty scoredon Argentina's side and none on Franch's side
during regular game during the run ofplay, so that does influence the result
to me. That does influence ascore to me because there is a lower
(13:46):
amount of expected goals without penalties,so non penalty expected goals to a lower
amount on Argentina's side. It doesgive me an indication that France has a
better creativity factor. They have abetter link play up top and they can
find ways to generate to generate shotcreating actions which sometimes lead to goal creating
action which lead to goals. Andto me, if this is going to
(14:09):
be a close game, because Ido believe it will be, and I'll
give my full prediction at the endof the show. But when I look
at one of the opportunities to createa goal scoring chance, I think France
will have a better opportunity here.And when we look at the miscellaneous stats
in a few minutes, you'll understandwhy there's another pathway to a shot or
(14:31):
to an opportunity in that department too. So for now, yes, both
have a great attack, prolific attack. They can score a lot of goals.
Both both sides. It's not goingto be a game that is won
by four or five goals, right, There won't be four goals in this
game. Well it could be becauseI just said that, but usually finals
(14:52):
are one one nail to nail toone close affair or even extra time of
penalties. It's tight in finals.You don't want to be the scapegoal.
You don't want to be the playerthat costs the World Cup to your team.
So players play a little bit ontheir heels and are a bit more
careful, and that does reflect that'swhere the advantages come out. If everything
(15:16):
is a bit more tied, abit more tense, you nullify all the
big, big advantage and it comesdown to just a small detail and it
could be how you get the ballon target a bit more easily than your
opponent. That means to me theadvantage goes to France in that department.
But the reason why I think theyhave a better way to do that is
(15:39):
because of him Pope's play, andPope has been, in my opinion,
the player of this tournament. Theheadlines and the statistic when it comes to
goals and assists five goals, threeassists for Messy and the big headlines and
the big gestures and everything you knowthat does talk about a player of the
tournament. But to me, Zimbapeand you can look at his numbers.
(16:02):
We'll talk about Himbape in a second, but wow, what a tournament.
So to me, Mbopei is myplayer of the tournament because yes, he's
equal with Messi with five goals each. They're both top of the Golden Boot,
(16:26):
both in contention for the Golden Ball. By the way, the first
eyebreaker for the Golden Boot is theassists. Right now, Messi has three
assists. He would win that.So we'll look at Messi starts in a
second. But let's look at mbopefive goals, three point four expected goals,
and let's remember that it's florid andmessy. Expected goals per ninety of
(16:48):
point sixty four a little less thanone, but if you rounded up,
you'll be one. The number Iwant to bring your attention to is non
penalty expected goal three point four,very high, equal to his expected goals.
He has not scored a penalty.All these goals are coming from the
run of play or open play orfree kick setting, but not for a
penalty setting. To assist is goalin assist per ninety, which is to
(17:11):
me an indicator of an influence tothe result of a game directly. If
you score or if you do anassist per game or more than one per
game as a striker or as aplayer, directly, you will have over
a high higher sample size of data, you will prevail. So goals in
(17:32):
a sister per ninety one point thirtytwo very impressive here, more than one
and a half, even if you'reround up every two game. Every two
games basically has a goal in assisteor more what a performance by Embappe in
the tournament shut creating actions We've justtalked about it forty three, So how
did the one hundred and sixty sevenshuck creating action that France has? Forty
(17:53):
three of those are for Embabe andto me it's quite spectacular because is non
penalty. Expected goal is of coursethe stats I want to bring your attention
to because that is going to bethe big difference maker between the two.
Let's move to Messi. As wemove to Messi here, sorry for the
(18:15):
little audio black out here. Well, Messi has five goals. He also
has four point seven expected goal veryhigh, very high and point seven and
I expected goals per game. Sowhen you compare to to Embabe is three
point four. There's a difference here, but take out the penalties. Take
(18:37):
out his three penalties at his scoreso non penalty expected goal of one point
six that is very low compared toEmbobbe's three point four non penalty expected goal,
which means to me and Babe hasa better path to goal, a
better path to scoring a goal,a better chance of scoring a goal.
(19:00):
Hitching. If you are looking fora money opportunity goal scorer in this match,
kill Yan and Babe, you won'tget a whole lot. You barely
will have one point ninety at thetime of this recording, but that is
(19:22):
better than nothing. So as nonpenalty expect to go open ninety at one
point twenty six means that on therun of play he will score a goal
every five games he scored more thanthat, scored two goals over the last
six games from the run of play, Matt works out. So technically,
(19:48):
if you're disciplined well, he doesn'tscore in this game if you don't give
him a shot from the penalty spot. Statistically speaking, overall, using the
same sample size, as this tournament, Messi will not score against France if
you don't give him an opportunity fromthe penalty spot. That's what we're seeing
(20:10):
here, So three assists that couldbe interesting, and he has a goals
in assis p ninety at one pointtwenty six. It's very similar to Embape,
but Embape's higher goal scoring and ofcourse how I expect the goal gives
him a better shot here. Thedifference that makes it a little lower for
Messi is Messi played extra time andpenalty minutes, which at the end of
(20:32):
the day dilutes a bit that statistic. But it is, to my opinions,
virtually identical as Messi and Membape's.Messi's shot creating action thirty seven that
is pretty similar to what we sawwith Embape, So to me, it's
truly the efficient tea in front ofthe net and their opportunity to score.
(20:52):
Messi three of his five goals sixtypercent coming from the penalty spot. Can
him Embope. Out of five goals, zero are coming from the penalty spot.
Three point four of those goals ofhis five are from replicable moments in
(21:15):
game, non penalty expected goals threepoint four When we look at Messi's five
goals, one point six are nonpenalty expected goals, which means that there
is a significant advantage when it comesto scoring for France. And I think
(21:37):
it will be Embope's time to shineand Embope will find the back of the
net maybe better than Messi will inone way that I think that's going to
happen. Well, it's because ofhow Embope guests in the net and where
Embope finds his channels is free spaceand is able to enter the final third
(22:02):
and break through the defense, breakthrough the channels. Multiple times against Croatia.
We saw the sorry that is theone about Argentina. So let's look
at France. Right here, Francechannel in the left. Look at that
the left and the left inside channelfor France nine times and six times respectively,
(22:25):
they were able to break through thefinal third and create chances on net
from there on. And Bope that'swhere he plays, that is his part
of the field. So if youlook at the starting eleven of France against
Morocco and Babe nandas those were themost influential players against Morocco, there's a
(22:51):
correlation there that's where they able tobreak through the final third and with balls
in the box and the vig whowas able to score the second one there
on the header crosses and then Bobbybreaking on the channels going to the left.
See a correlation here, That's whereit's all happening that left side for
France. If France is able tolock down that left side, then France
(23:19):
will have the upper hand here.I think it's truly where France will dominate.
So if they can find the spacethere for Mbope and for Fauna to
serve Embope and send him and launchhim and Grnandez to overlap when needed,
and find yourself in the box,my friend, and find the ball once
(23:41):
again. We saw him do thatagainst Morocco. Turns out that it was
one of the key of the game. It was to be able to be
successful for France in the left channeland left inside channel. So now that
we know that, how do werecreate the same thing? How do we
recreate the same thing against a differentopponent. Well, Argentina likes to play
(24:07):
in a way that might facilitate France'sopportunities in the left channel. Well,
at least if they replicate the waythey played against Croatia, Because against Croatia,
to the surprise of many, theywere able to find Messi not on
his preferred right or right inside channel, which he was playing more like a
(24:29):
lot more in the first couple ofgames in the tournament. In the second
in the quarterfinals that Argentina played againstthe Netherlands, Messi on the right channel,
almost by himself break down the defenseseventeen times. So there's a conscious
(24:52):
decision against Croatia to keep the finalthird entries the breakthrough of the defense if
you will, to the left,so Argentina's left would be Francis's right,
in Argentina's right will be Francis's leftwhen we can bear attack and offense and
defense right. So if France isable to once again control their left channel
(25:19):
when they want to, which willindicate the right channel of Argentina that you
see in front of you, wellthose numbers will be different because Messi will
need to be influential in his right. But they're trying to hide Messi.
That's the whole thing, that's thewhole point of this entire tournament for Argentina.
They're trying to hide the goats.So when we look at the starting
(25:41):
eleven of Croata of Argentina versus Croatiaa four four two different formation that they've
used in most of the tournament.Three five two they've used or five three
two depending on this situation. Molinaslot as a defenders at the midfielders and
you see the set up here,but Messi was more of a free role
and was fighting Alvarez in the middle. It was more through Alvarez and that's
(26:03):
where the breakthrough were happening through themiddle to the left side of the pitch
for Argentina's attack, and they wereall to break it down there. Messi
not that as influential, but influentialfrom the penalty spot, influential from a
couple of key passes when he wascutting back inside. Now that will mean
we'll dictate where the team plays.Is that situation here will Argentina trying to
(26:26):
highlight Messi's position once again and moveit to a part of the field where
the influential But if they move itto back to the right and leave it
there where, which it was againstthe Netherlands, that's where Messi was mostly
played. And if you look atMessi's heat map against the Netherlands, I'll
be more on the right side ofthe pitch, and if you look at
Messi's heat map against Croatia, it'smore in the middle of the pitch.
(26:52):
So when I look at the possibilitieshere of having Argentina having to play Messy
on the right, right in frontof Mbape, that's where it's maybe a
bad idea for Argentina. So ifArgentina keeps it on his left, on
their left, which mean McAlister andZoe and Alvarez, they have a better
(27:17):
chance of winning. If it's theopposite and France is able to dictate where
they play with the ball, Francewill dictate this game. That is one
of the keys of the game.There's a couple more keys of the game
in the defenses, in of course, a weird segment that I call miscellaneous,
(27:41):
that we will look at more obscurestatistics, things that we don't necessarily
look and talk about all this time. But to me, the representative opportunities
to find maybe another advantage for theteam will take a small break. When
we come back, we'll continue andbreak down the defenses for this tournament right
here on soccer today. This isour Argentina, Argentinia, Argentina versus Croatia
(28:07):
preview Croatia, Wow, it islate here by the way, as we
were recording this show. It isArgentina France. The welcome final preview right
here on Soccer Today. And we'reback on Soccer Today. I'm keV Laramie.
(28:52):
Thanks for joining us once again onthis preview show. You can follow
myself on Twitter at keV Laramie andyou can follow this show at Soccer Today
CIA. Soccer Data Dota is ourwebsite and you can follow our brand new
Twitter account at Soccer Today. Sall right, we've talked about the offensive,
(29:15):
we break down the channels, Welooked at a lot of expected events
metrics. We'll continue our deep diveof the World Cup final between Argentina Argentina.
I can't even say it anymore,Argentina and France right here on Soccer
Today. Time to look at thedefenses. There are some advantages here and
(29:36):
we will look deep into it.Goals against for Argentina, five for France,
two point four expected goals against forArgentina that's the best in the tournament
and six point seven for France.So France does give more expected goals.
So technically you look at these numbersand be like, oh yeah, oh
(29:57):
yeah, Argentina, that's very good. The defense of the Baby Blues is
really good. Let's be celesque.They're gonna have the advantage. They're gonna
nullify France. France, who havefive shots on target average, Well,
(30:18):
the opponent of Argentina usually have onput twenty six and France keeps their opponent
to two point five shots on targetper game. So you would think that
the defense of Argentina is better,But to me, it doesn't mean everything.
It's a bit more complicated. There'sa bit more nuance to it.
(30:41):
Argentina's defense has absorbed better, butit was put under pressure. Argentina's defense
has seen troubled time that were clearedoff the line, has seen moments and
penalties surprise and save them in games. So I want to draw your attention
(31:03):
to the numbers below. And ifyou have been following my works over the
last a few weeks, well you'veyou've heard about this, You've heard about
me and talking about tackles, recoveries, and interception. It's one of my
ways to quantify the ability of ateam to recuperate the ball, the ability
(31:29):
of a team to book, pressure, tackle, create turnovers, to intercept
the ball. So so all thosethings combine. So tackles, recovery,
interception gives me that metric. Andwhen I do a little quick calculation,
So Argentina one hundred to seventy eightforty two, that's four twenty one,
nineteen two, ninety three and sixtyseven. That's four and seventy nine.
(31:53):
There is an advantage for France here. Yes, numerically speaking is fifty nine
doesn't mean anything here those numbers,but it's an advantage France is able to
get the ball back. More so, depending on where this game is played,
will it be on Frances and theleft side when Bobby will the breakthrough
(32:14):
come from there? Will it beon the other side Maybe then Bailey finally
has his breakout game with France,and it is influential in this one,
which is not out of the realmof possibility. But when I compare the
defense, I think France's ability torecuperate the ball when they need because of
tackles recoveri's interception that equation that I'mtalking about. Because of that, I
(32:35):
think there's a higher chance that Francecan dictate where the play is going where
the play keeps going. And ifthey don't have the ball, which is
fine. They like to have theball fifty two percent of the time of
the tournaments so far. So ifthey don't have the ball and they can
find a good path to get theball back and find an open channel and
send him Bobby on the left,I think those are all together. I
(33:00):
think if France is able to dominateon the left side like they will want
to, it'll be a long nightfor for for Argentina. Because which will
bring me to my miscellaneous comparison.Let's compare to miscellaneous M for miscellaneous,
right, Marvin, is this underCEA for the block CEA or is this
(33:22):
M for miscellaneous. It's M formiscellaneous, all right, this could be
influential here in this result of thegame, penalty ones for Argentina, four
(33:46):
zero for France, but France concededthree penalties. So when you just look
at this, that's based Valley pek, Oh my god, there's a good
chance that to Argentina wins a penaltyand the scorn a penalty and France does
not have a penalty because they haven'twon a penalty in this entire tournament,
and We've seen Messi score three timesin the penalty spot, so maybe it
(34:07):
is something that can happen. Butto do a penalty and you need to
do fouls, and that's where there'sa big difference yellow cards and fouls.
I'll join your attention to that aspect, which together will call discipline. Twelve
yellow cards for Argentina. It's thehighest in the entire tournament. Seventy four
fouls committed. It's not the highestin the tournament, but it's the highest
(34:27):
in the two teams here that we'retalking about. Forty nine fouls committed for
France. Quite actually disciplined the French. They just did not choose the right
position on the pitch to their foulswhich were in the box. But sometimes
like in their quarterfinal games, that'sjust you can can see the penalty without
(34:50):
affecting the result of a game sometimes. So so I do give that,
and when I look at the replicability, when I look at the amount of
fouls commended by Argentina, and andnow the eye test too. Argentina has
been a fiery team, has beena team that plays with a lot of
emotion, but a lot of emotionscomes harsh tackle sometimes I could lead to
(35:13):
a yellow card, that could leadto a foul, and sometimes the foul
happens in the box. And ifthe fouls happens in the box, well
that's a penalty for France. Ican see France winning that way. I
can see Setically speaking, I thinkthere's going to be a regression. There's
too many penalties on one side andnone on the other. There should be
(35:34):
a regression. But yellow cards foul'scommitted to me indicate actually a lack of
discipline on Argentina's side. And thenyou add the emotions of a final.
You had the hype, the overhype of a final. It's of course
amplified everything about this and amplified soI could see France having an advantage in
(36:04):
the discipline. I can see theFrench players having played for this just a
few years ago and one it fouryears ago, Argentina lost it. Maybe
that will stay with Argentina. Also, then we can look at crosses.
Now crosses a big advantage for France, one hundred and eight crosses, seventy
seven for Argentina. We just sawJiu score for a ball whipped in the
(36:27):
box. So crosses and you canadd corners and all balls whipped into the
box. That could be a bigadvantage for France. France has taller players
than Argentina. It might be simple, but players like Gabiaux could be favorite
for me in this one to scorea goal. Players like gabia could be
a big influence in this game scoringon a ball whipped into the box.
(36:51):
And then we can go to bothshot expected goal differential. Yeah, that's
a mouthful and it's quite deep intothe statistic maybe, but you're gonna follow
me for a second. Just justbear with me, because it's important.
It gives an indication of an advantagefrom one team over the other. Here.
(37:13):
I think France has an advantage forthe goalkeepers and I think mixed into
all the crosses that are going tobe whipped into the box, that could
be the big difference because well,the goalkeeper for Argentina could be one of
their well their Achilles heel. Wesaw Martina is do a couple of mistakes
(37:36):
that fortunately did not lead to goalsor anything dangerous of last couple of games,
but could have. But when youplay against a team of friends who
will whip the ball in, willfind ways to put the goalkeeper under pressure
to test his reflexes. We willsee that happen. So you include dance
(37:59):
statistic year of the post shot expectedgoal differential, which well in Lehman's turm.
Okay, quickly, if we talkabout that statistic, it's convoluted how
you can calculate it. And ifyou go on my website soccer to look
at the article that I have previewingthis game, there's a link to an
article explaining what is that statistics.So Argentina conceded one point four goals more
(38:24):
than they're supposed to with the expectedgoals that they have had. France they've
conceded less than they're supposed to,So you have an advantage of point all
five. You're in the green bypoint five, which you're round up to
one. So Lauris save one goalduring this tournament, and one or two
goals were not saved by Matinez.So basically that's what we mean with post
(38:50):
shot expected goal. So in conclusion, and now I'm going to get ready
to do a drum roll. Idon't even think I have a drum roll,
but soon I'll give you my predictionthat you can put some money on
because last time that I had aprediction on my Twitter feed. I said
France would be Morocco to nothing inregulation. And I hope you listen because
(39:15):
if you did look I had,well it was worth your while. So
let's break it down one last time. Let's look at my prediction for this
and you can find my prediction awritten form on my website Soccer Today dot
c A. By the way,thank you to all the visitors of the
website that's Soccer Today DOTA. I'mKevil Army, a professional statistician. It's
(39:37):
been a pleasure creating that website forall of you, and I've enjoyed having
all the numbers and all the visits. It's been really good. So my
prediction is as follows. All right, so let's put some music. We
need some music for this, solet's put I don't have a drum roll,
do, We'll have some I havesome techno, all right, not
(39:57):
some jazzy music. Let's go withsome jazzy music, all right. Prediction
time here with talker. Prediction time. Argentina has, yes, a defensive
advantage, but their offense has beenoverinflated with the performances from the penalty spot.
France has a higher proficiency in generatingshot creating actions from up and play
(40:22):
to Argentina, it will be avery close game, but Ambape will be
too much on the left channels.French will take advantage of that aspect to
whip the ball in the box profuselyand use the height advantage of players like
it have you to score a header. Yes, the goal will come from
(40:43):
a header. One nil. Ican see that goal being scored an extra
time. It could be a nilnil all the way to ninetieth minute,
any injury time and falling into extratime and then one nil there. I
can also see it being nil nilall the way to penalties, and it's
actually decided from the penalty spot,which at one point I still would favor
Friends because of the goalie and becauseof the experience they had in tournament finals
(41:08):
over the years, so that iswhat I would favor. But at the
end of the day, I cansee it very closely being fought. It's
a closely fought match, and asfinals tend to be, it will be
that. And in the end it'sgoing to be a beautiful day and for
(41:30):
the first time in over fifty years, we're going to get back to back
champions a la lebler third star thatTuisi metual on top of the logo.
It's going to appear as you cansee on your screen, al le blursayes
(41:52):
you're going to be standing at confetti. Sorry, messy, it won't be
for you, but Le Blur winninga close one salent will prevail. I
(42:44):
hope you enjoyed this preview show.You can follow me on Twitter at kevl
Army. You can follow this showat Soccer Today's c A. That's Soccer
Today CEA. You can find everythingthat I do here on our website at
Soccer Today dot c A. That'sSoccer Today dot c A. Thank you
very much. You can follow thisshow also everywhere you find your favorite shows.
(43:07):
If you want to contact me andyou would like to have me on
your TV show, on your radioshow, well you can do so.
Kevin on soccer at gmail dot com. Over the next few days, I'll
be on CPB News, I'll beon Kelowna eleven fifty Radio AM also on
other places near you. And asalways, until next time, I'm Kevi
(43:30):
Laramie. I hope you enjoyed thisshow and as always, I wish you
a great soccer
Good day, good night, andwelcome to my World Cup preview show.
I'm Kevin Laromay and this is ourWorld Cup Final preview. I hope you're
doing well, Ken Laromai. Welcometo Soccer Today, the magazine, the
(00:33):
podcast available everywhere you get all yourfavorite shows. I'm Kevin Lamy, sports
statistician and soccer expert breaking down theWorld Cup Final from Argentina's point of view,
from France's point of view. Wewill look, of course at all
the numbers, will break down statisticallywhy I believe one of those two teams
(00:56):
has a small advantage and we'll endup lifting the trophy. We'll end up
lifting six point one hundred and seventyfive kilograms of gold of eighteen carat gold,
which by the way, it's worthabout two hundred and twenty thousand dollars
US with the prices today. Butwe got a really good show ahead of
(01:19):
us. We're going to break downtoday, of course, once we saw
in this tournament for France, forArgentina, for Messy, for Mbope,
we will look at all the differentmetrics for the attack, for the defense,
even miscellaneous. Yes, a littlereference to die Hard. It is
classified under m for miscellaneous. We'realso going to look at well, one
(01:47):
of my favorites statistic coming out ofthis World Cup, FIFA has given us
at FI dot com some interesting metricsin the channels and the breakthrough in the
final third, the final third entries, and we're gonna look at how that
has influence a result of games andhow that might dictate where the play,
where the onus of play takes placeon Sunday. But a great philosopher once
(02:12):
said, to know where you're going, you're gonna know well where you've been.
But before that, I want toinvite YouTube subscribe to our podcasts.
Everywhere you find your podcasts and toour website Soccer Today dot c, a
news analysis. You can find apodcast and the magazine show there as well,
and you can also find a lotmore everywhere you find your favorite podcasts
(02:37):
and all. I also would liketo draw your attention to YouTube. Subscribe
on the YouTube channel. If you'rewatching us here on YouTube, thank you
for subscribing to our channel. We'reall the way to six thirty something and
with your help we can continue ourjourney to a thousand subscribers. And of
course you can find this podcast everywhereyou find your favorite podcasts Spotify, Google
(03:00):
podcast, Spreaker and Apple podcasts.As always, to note where you have
been is all useful, especially inthe World Cup. Let's look at the
journey through final the road to thefinal for Argentina for also France. Let's
(03:22):
starts with Argentina Group C. Theystarted with losing to Saudi Arabia. That's
how you start your World Cup.You lose to the team who finishes fourth.
A wake up call and Messi withhindsight mentioned that the loss to Saudi
(03:45):
Arabia was actually beneficial. It wokethem up and showed them the way,
told them that there won't be aneasy one and you will have to get
your act together to produce a decentWorld Cup. They turned it around and
finished top of their group in groupssee Argentina winning two games and finishing above
(04:06):
Poland, above Mexico and above SaudiArabia. Taught by the group meant decent
seating in the round of sixteen asArgentina faced Australia and prevailed against the SOCCA
roots. We will look at thebracket in a second as we now transport
(04:27):
ourselves to Group D. France Australia, Tunisia and Denmark. France Wonder Group
lost the last game against Tunisia.They were already through after the first two
games. He did a lot ofrotations. They rotated nine out of eleven
players in the last group match gamethat they lost to Tunisia. But that
(04:54):
is not necessarily important as we speak, because with that loss they're able to
wrest some players. They were ableto show a lot in the knockout stage
because with those results it led tothis France Poland in the round is sixteen.
There is a world out there thatArgentina finished second of their group and
(05:17):
they would have faced France in theround at sixteen, but no, that
did not happen. Argentina won theirgroup and was in the round at sixteen.
It's funny how all the upsets,all the drama. Morocco's great Cinderella
run, Croatia's great run to thesummis they limited Brazil turned out the second
(05:42):
and third favorite the entire tournament,faced each other in yeah, in the
final of this tournament. But quitean impressive road and we can continue to
look at the road if you wantto bear with me here for a second,
because I think it's impressive. Argentinabeat Australia. Then they moved to
the Netherlands and olyn played well.They had a great tournament. Memphis de
(06:04):
Pie, Cody Gagbo. Let's notforget those two strikers played very well.
But Louis van hall and that wholeMessi, Louis van Haal, the the
emotion that comes out of Messy,the anger, the win at all costs
mentality, influence by the infamous DiegoMaradonna. But the Netherlands and Leuvana Halle
(06:27):
will remember this game for a longtime. From two nil up Argentina two
two. Then, of course weall know how that ended up. Messi
yelling at Dutch players and even inthe post press conference, it was very
very interesting to seem the fire ofMessi and how Messy was not necessarily just
(06:50):
being a good guy. No pressrelations, no training, no cassette,
no oh yeah, I'm happy tobe here. No no, no,
no. This is the win atall costs. This isn't going to get
under your skin, This isn't goingto do what I need to to win.
But we'll see when we break downthis game a little closer later that
(07:14):
might actually cost a lot for Argentina, but France also had a pretty difficult
path to the final. We forgotto mention Argentina to be Croatia in the
Semits just a few days ago,we remember, but Francis path Poland,
of course, and in England inthe South in the quarterfinal beating England the
(07:39):
revenge of the Channel War on theend of the year. Or of course,
then France and Morocco a game fullof friendship on both sides. They
share language of course, with Frenchbeing one of the languages of Morocco,
and of course of France obviously friendshipon both sides, and babe sure for
(08:00):
France with Achimi of Morocco. Butat the end of the day, the
Frenchman got the job done and qualifiedfor their second straight final. They are
the defending champions. Let's not forgetArgentina was in the final in twenty fourteen,
losing one nothing to Germany in Brazilfourteen. As we are back right
(08:22):
here live in the Soccer Today headquarters. Thanks for joining us. If you
are joining us live on YouTube orpodcasts, it's been a pleasure being with
you over this World Cup. Whilewe reboot this show Soccer Today dot C
for all the information. We willbe on CTV News channel all throughout the
weekend. You can find me onSaturday morning at ten am breaking down the
(08:43):
beginning of the game of the thirdplace game between Croatia and Morocco. You
can find me also Sunday six pmon CTV News. I'll be breaking down
the entire tournament and talking about thefinal that I am predicting on today's show.
My prediction will be at the endof the show right here on Soccer
(09:03):
Today as we start to break downthe matchup. While it's a third time
not four time. Then they facedeach other in the World Cup, well
just a few years ago in twentyeighteen and round and sixteen. That's the
latest matchup at the World Cup betweenthe two and France got the better of
Argentina four three. France eventually endedup in the confetti, winning the entire
(09:26):
tournament. They eliminated Messi in Russiain twenty eighteen and a round of sixteen,
and this led to a bit ofa revolution in the Argentinian national team,
led to the appointment of Scoloni,who revolutionalized a bit how this team
plays and a bit more of aI would say flexibility. Tactically, they've
(09:46):
been moving from a three to fivetwo to a four to two with success
during this tournament. Adapting they arenot only formation but also tactics from game
to game to get the most outof messy and to get the most out
of the rest of the attack.Which, well, it's that time.
It is time to break down theattack. It is time to look at
(10:09):
a couple of different metrics that willtell us more about the forces, the
strength and of course who has anadvantage between the two And of course I'm
going to get you the proper graphicright here on the screen. So to
me, there's a couple of waysto see this. It's two of the
(10:31):
most prolific attacks in the tournament.They're up there with England, They're up
there also with teams like Portugal.The four best attack in the entire tournament.
It's England, France, Argentina,Portugal thirteen and twelve goals respectively,
so that's equal. And we lookat the expected goals and you can see
(10:52):
on your screen or if you're watchinglistening just to the podcast, you can
find the graphic on our website SoccerToday dot C the preview articles have the
same graphic that we have on theshow here, so you can look at
the numbers that we're talking about,so virtually identically expected goals for both teams
when we're talking about the attack elevenpoint eight for Argentina, eleven point six
(11:16):
for Friends. So that's not wherewe can see an advantage. So let's
move on. Expect the goal pernine well, again very similar, one
eighty seven three, not a bigdifference. Possession average two teams that perform
better when they have the ball lessthan fifty five percent. We can see
here that on average in the tournament, it's in fifty eight and fifty two.
(11:37):
They had more after their first game, and every single game since then
their possession average has decreased. Sonow we look at the shot on target
per ninety. That's an impressive statisticto me because they get about five shots
onto our get per game, whichmeans that they get three to four scoring
chances per game at least, andthat is a good number, a good
(12:00):
statistic, and we'll keep that inmind. So we'll talk about the short
the shot creating actions SCA. Ilove a SCA. It does indicate an
ability to a team to put theball on target, to create that shot,
to create that space, to createthe shot. All those actions count.
So when you look France, there'sa bit of an advantage here.
(12:20):
For France, France has one hundredand sixty seven shot creating actions throughout the
entire tournament in six games played.When we look at Argentina one forty three,
it's not that much, but it'sone sixth of the number or give
or take. So it's a limitof an advantage here for France. France
can create more often with the ball. But to me, you combine the
(12:43):
shot creating ability of France with howthey score goals, because as much as
we talk about prolific attack and howArgentina has scored a lot of goals,
where did the goal come from worthyreplicable? Are they expected? Yes,
(13:03):
the answer is yes for that,But are they coming from the run of
play? Well, not really whenit's come to Argentina. Argentina has a
non penalty expected goal of eight pointnine, almost three full points below what
they do have for France. Andthen you look at the penalty scored.
(13:24):
We'll talk about the penalties a bitlater, and we talk about Messi and
in babe, But there's penalty scoredon Argentina's side and none on Franch's side
during regular game during the run ofplay, so that does influence the result
to me. That does influence ascore to me because there is a lower
(13:46):
amount of expected goals without penalties,so non penalty expected goals to a lower
amount on Argentina's side. It doesgive me an indication that France has a
better creativity factor. They have abetter link play up top and they can
find ways to generate to generate shotcreating actions which sometimes lead to goal creating
action which lead to goals. Andto me, if this is going to
(14:09):
be a close game, because Ido believe it will be, and I'll
give my full prediction at the endof the show. But when I look
at one of the opportunities to createa goal scoring chance, I think France
will have a better opportunity here.And when we look at the miscellaneous stats
in a few minutes, you'll understandwhy there's another pathway to a shot or
(14:31):
to an opportunity in that department too. So for now, yes, both
have a great attack, prolific attack. They can score a lot of goals.
Both both sides. It's not goingto be a game that is won
by four or five goals, right, There won't be four goals in this
game. Well it could be becauseI just said that, but usually finals
(14:52):
are one one nail to nail toone close affair or even extra time of
penalties. It's tight in finals.You don't want to be the scapegoal.
You don't want to be the playerthat costs the World Cup to your team.
So players play a little bit ontheir heels and are a bit more
careful, and that does reflect that'swhere the advantages come out. If everything
(15:16):
is a bit more tied, abit more tense, you nullify all the
big, big advantage and it comesdown to just a small detail and it
could be how you get the ballon target a bit more easily than your
opponent. That means to me theadvantage goes to France in that department.
But the reason why I think theyhave a better way to do that is
(15:39):
because of him Pope's play, andPope has been, in my opinion,
the player of this tournament. Theheadlines and the statistic when it comes to
goals and assists five goals, threeassists for Messy and the big headlines and
the big gestures and everything you knowthat does talk about a player of the
tournament. But to me, Zimbapeand you can look at his numbers.
(16:02):
We'll talk about Himbape in a second, but wow, what a tournament.
So to me, Mbopei is myplayer of the tournament because yes, he's
equal with Messi with five goals each. They're both top of the Golden Boot,
(16:26):
both in contention for the Golden Ball. By the way, the first
eyebreaker for the Golden Boot is theassists. Right now, Messi has three
assists. He would win that.So we'll look at Messi starts in a
second. But let's look at mbopefive goals, three point four expected goals,
and let's remember that it's florid andmessy. Expected goals per ninety of
(16:48):
point sixty four a little less thanone, but if you rounded up,
you'll be one. The number Iwant to bring your attention to is non
penalty expected goal three point four,very high, equal to his expected goals.
He has not scored a penalty.All these goals are coming from the
run of play or open play orfree kick setting, but not for a
penalty setting. To assist is goalin assist per ninety, which is to
(17:11):
me an indicator of an influence tothe result of a game directly. If
you score or if you do anassist per game or more than one per
game as a striker or as aplayer, directly, you will have over
a high higher sample size of data, you will prevail. So goals in
(17:32):
a sister per ninety one point thirtytwo very impressive here, more than one
and a half, even if you'reround up every two game. Every two
games basically has a goal in assisteor more what a performance by Embappe in
the tournament shut creating actions We've justtalked about it forty three, So how
did the one hundred and sixty sevenshuck creating action that France has? Forty
(17:53):
three of those are for Embabe andto me it's quite spectacular because is non
penalty. Expected goal is of coursethe stats I want to bring your attention
to because that is going to bethe big difference maker between the two.
Let's move to Messi. As wemove to Messi here, sorry for the
(18:15):
little audio black out here. Well, Messi has five goals. He also
has four point seven expected goal veryhigh, very high and point seven and
I expected goals per game. Sowhen you compare to to Embabe is three
point four. There's a difference here, but take out the penalties. Take
(18:37):
out his three penalties at his scoreso non penalty expected goal of one point
six that is very low compared toEmbobbe's three point four non penalty expected goal,
which means to me and Babe hasa better path to goal, a
better path to scoring a goal,a better chance of scoring a goal.
(19:00):
Hitching. If you are looking fora money opportunity goal scorer in this match,
kill Yan and Babe, you won'tget a whole lot. You barely
will have one point ninety at thetime of this recording, but that is
(19:22):
better than nothing. So as nonpenalty expect to go open ninety at one
point twenty six means that on therun of play he will score a goal
every five games he scored more thanthat, scored two goals over the last
six games from the run of play, Matt works out. So technically,
(19:48):
if you're disciplined well, he doesn'tscore in this game if you don't give
him a shot from the penalty spot. Statistically speaking, overall, using the
same sample size, as this tournament, Messi will not score against France if
you don't give him an opportunity fromthe penalty spot. That's what we're seeing
(20:10):
here, So three assists that couldbe interesting, and he has a goals
in assis p ninety at one pointtwenty six. It's very similar to Embape,
but Embape's higher goal scoring and ofcourse how I expect the goal gives
him a better shot here. Thedifference that makes it a little lower for
Messi is Messi played extra time andpenalty minutes, which at the end of
(20:32):
the day dilutes a bit that statistic. But it is, to my opinions,
virtually identical as Messi and Membape's.Messi's shot creating action thirty seven that
is pretty similar to what we sawwith Embape, So to me, it's
truly the efficient tea in front ofthe net and their opportunity to score.
(20:52):
Messi three of his five goals sixtypercent coming from the penalty spot. Can
him Embope. Out of five goals, zero are coming from the penalty spot.
Three point four of those goals ofhis five are from replicable moments in
(21:15):
game, non penalty expected goals threepoint four When we look at Messi's five
goals, one point six are nonpenalty expected goals, which means that there
is a significant advantage when it comesto scoring for France. And I think
(21:37):
it will be Embope's time to shineand Embope will find the back of the
net maybe better than Messi will inone way that I think that's going to
happen. Well, it's because ofhow Embope guests in the net and where
Embope finds his channels is free spaceand is able to enter the final third
(22:02):
and break through the defense, breakthrough the channels. Multiple times against Croatia.
We saw the sorry that is theone about Argentina. So let's look
at France. Right here, Francechannel in the left. Look at that
the left and the left inside channelfor France nine times and six times respectively,
(22:25):
they were able to break through thefinal third and create chances on net
from there on. And Bope that'swhere he plays, that is his part
of the field. So if youlook at the starting eleven of France against
Morocco and Babe nandas those were themost influential players against Morocco, there's a
(22:51):
correlation there that's where they able tobreak through the final third and with balls
in the box and the vig whowas able to score the second one there
on the header crosses and then Bobbybreaking on the channels going to the left.
See a correlation here, That's whereit's all happening that left side for
France. If France is able tolock down that left side, then France
(23:19):
will have the upper hand here.I think it's truly where France will dominate.
So if they can find the spacethere for Mbope and for Fauna to
serve Embope and send him and launchhim and Grnandez to overlap when needed,
and find yourself in the box,my friend, and find the ball once
(23:41):
again. We saw him do thatagainst Morocco. Turns out that it was
one of the key of the game. It was to be able to be
successful for France in the left channeland left inside channel. So now that
we know that, how do werecreate the same thing? How do we
recreate the same thing against a differentopponent. Well, Argentina likes to play
(24:07):
in a way that might facilitate France'sopportunities in the left channel. Well,
at least if they replicate the waythey played against Croatia, Because against Croatia,
to the surprise of many, theywere able to find Messi not on
his preferred right or right inside channel, which he was playing more like a
(24:29):
lot more in the first couple ofgames in the tournament. In the second
in the quarterfinals that Argentina played againstthe Netherlands, Messi on the right channel,
almost by himself break down the defenseseventeen times. So there's a conscious
(24:52):
decision against Croatia to keep the finalthird entries the breakthrough of the defense if
you will, to the left,so Argentina's left would be Francis's right,
in Argentina's right will be Francis's leftwhen we can bear attack and offense and
defense right. So if France isable to once again control their left channel
(25:19):
when they want to, which willindicate the right channel of Argentina that you
see in front of you, wellthose numbers will be different because Messi will
need to be influential in his right. But they're trying to hide Messi.
That's the whole thing, that's thewhole point of this entire tournament for Argentina.
They're trying to hide the goats.So when we look at the starting
(25:41):
eleven of Croata of Argentina versus Croatiaa four four two different formation that they've
used in most of the tournament.Three five two they've used or five three
two depending on this situation. Molinaslot as a defenders at the midfielders and
you see the set up here,but Messi was more of a free role
and was fighting Alvarez in the middle. It was more through Alvarez and that's
(26:03):
where the breakthrough were happening through themiddle to the left side of the pitch
for Argentina's attack, and they wereall to break it down there. Messi
not that as influential, but influentialfrom the penalty spot, influential from a
couple of key passes when he wascutting back inside. Now that will mean
we'll dictate where the team plays.Is that situation here will Argentina trying to
(26:26):
highlight Messi's position once again and moveit to a part of the field where
the influential But if they move itto back to the right and leave it
there where, which it was againstthe Netherlands, that's where Messi was mostly
played. And if you look atMessi's heat map against the Netherlands, I'll
be more on the right side ofthe pitch, and if you look at
Messi's heat map against Croatia, it'smore in the middle of the pitch.
(26:52):
So when I look at the possibilitieshere of having Argentina having to play Messy
on the right, right in frontof Mbape, that's where it's maybe a
bad idea for Argentina. So ifArgentina keeps it on his left, on
their left, which mean McAlister andZoe and Alvarez, they have a better
(27:17):
chance of winning. If it's theopposite and France is able to dictate where
they play with the ball, Francewill dictate this game. That is one
of the keys of the game.There's a couple more keys of the game
in the defenses, in of course, a weird segment that I call miscellaneous,
(27:41):
that we will look at more obscurestatistics, things that we don't necessarily
look and talk about all this time. But to me, the representative opportunities
to find maybe another advantage for theteam will take a small break. When
we come back, we'll continue andbreak down the defenses for this tournament right
here on soccer today. This isour Argentina, Argentinia, Argentina versus Croatia
(28:07):
preview Croatia, Wow, it islate here by the way, as we
were recording this show. It isArgentina France. The welcome final preview right
here on Soccer Today. And we'reback on Soccer Today. I'm keV Laramie.
(28:52):
Thanks for joining us once again onthis preview show. You can follow
myself on Twitter at keV Laramie andyou can follow this show at Soccer Today
CIA. Soccer Data Dota is ourwebsite and you can follow our brand new
Twitter account at Soccer Today. Sall right, we've talked about the offensive,
(29:15):
we break down the channels, Welooked at a lot of expected events
metrics. We'll continue our deep diveof the World Cup final between Argentina Argentina.
I can't even say it anymore,Argentina and France right here on Soccer
Today. Time to look at thedefenses. There are some advantages here and
(29:36):
we will look deep into it.Goals against for Argentina, five for France,
two point four expected goals against forArgentina that's the best in the tournament
and six point seven for France.So France does give more expected goals.
So technically you look at these numbersand be like, oh yeah, oh
(29:57):
yeah, Argentina, that's very good. The defense of the Baby Blues is
really good. Let's be celesque.They're gonna have the advantage. They're gonna
nullify France. France, who havefive shots on target average, Well,
(30:18):
the opponent of Argentina usually have onput twenty six and France keeps their opponent
to two point five shots on targetper game. So you would think that
the defense of Argentina is better,But to me, it doesn't mean everything.
It's a bit more complicated. There'sa bit more nuance to it.
(30:41):
Argentina's defense has absorbed better, butit was put under pressure. Argentina's defense
has seen troubled time that were clearedoff the line, has seen moments and
penalties surprise and save them in games. So I want to draw your attention
(31:03):
to the numbers below. And ifyou have been following my works over the
last a few weeks, well you'veyou've heard about this, You've heard about
me and talking about tackles, recoveries, and interception. It's one of my
ways to quantify the ability of ateam to recuperate the ball, the ability
(31:29):
of a team to book, pressure, tackle, create turnovers, to intercept
the ball. So so all thosethings combine. So tackles, recovery,
interception gives me that metric. Andwhen I do a little quick calculation,
So Argentina one hundred to seventy eightforty two, that's four twenty one,
nineteen two, ninety three and sixtyseven. That's four and seventy nine.
(31:53):
There is an advantage for France here. Yes, numerically speaking is fifty nine
doesn't mean anything here those numbers,but it's an advantage France is able to
get the ball back. More so, depending on where this game is played,
will it be on Frances and theleft side when Bobby will the breakthrough
(32:14):
come from there? Will it beon the other side Maybe then Bailey finally
has his breakout game with France,and it is influential in this one,
which is not out of the realmof possibility. But when I compare the
defense, I think France's ability torecuperate the ball when they need because of
tackles recoveri's interception that equation that I'mtalking about. Because of that, I
(32:35):
think there's a higher chance that Francecan dictate where the play is going where
the play keeps going. And ifthey don't have the ball, which is
fine. They like to have theball fifty two percent of the time of
the tournaments so far. So ifthey don't have the ball and they can
find a good path to get theball back and find an open channel and
send him Bobby on the left,I think those are all together. I
(33:00):
think if France is able to dominateon the left side like they will want
to, it'll be a long nightfor for for Argentina. Because which will
bring me to my miscellaneous comparison.Let's compare to miscellaneous M for miscellaneous,
right, Marvin, is this underCEA for the block CEA or is this
(33:22):
M for miscellaneous. It's M formiscellaneous, all right, this could be
influential here in this result of thegame, penalty ones for Argentina, four
(33:46):
zero for France, but France concededthree penalties. So when you just look
at this, that's based Valley pek, Oh my god, there's a good
chance that to Argentina wins a penaltyand the scorn a penalty and France does
not have a penalty because they haven'twon a penalty in this entire tournament,
and We've seen Messi score three timesin the penalty spot, so maybe it
(34:07):
is something that can happen. Butto do a penalty and you need to
do fouls, and that's where there'sa big difference yellow cards and fouls.
I'll join your attention to that aspect, which together will call discipline. Twelve
yellow cards for Argentina. It's thehighest in the entire tournament. Seventy four
fouls committed. It's not the highestin the tournament, but it's the highest
(34:27):
in the two teams here that we'retalking about. Forty nine fouls committed for
France. Quite actually disciplined the French. They just did not choose the right
position on the pitch to their foulswhich were in the box. But sometimes
like in their quarterfinal games, that'sjust you can can see the penalty without
(34:50):
affecting the result of a game sometimes. So so I do give that,
and when I look at the replicability, when I look at the amount of
fouls commended by Argentina, and andnow the eye test too. Argentina has
been a fiery team, has beena team that plays with a lot of
emotion, but a lot of emotionscomes harsh tackle sometimes I could lead to
(35:13):
a yellow card, that could leadto a foul, and sometimes the foul
happens in the box. And ifthe fouls happens in the box, well
that's a penalty for France. Ican see France winning that way. I
can see Setically speaking, I thinkthere's going to be a regression. There's
too many penalties on one side andnone on the other. There should be
(35:34):
a regression. But yellow cards foul'scommitted to me indicate actually a lack of
discipline on Argentina's side. And thenyou add the emotions of a final.
You had the hype, the overhype of a final. It's of course
amplified everything about this and amplified soI could see France having an advantage in
(36:04):
the discipline. I can see theFrench players having played for this just a
few years ago and one it fouryears ago, Argentina lost it. Maybe
that will stay with Argentina. Also, then we can look at crosses.
Now crosses a big advantage for France, one hundred and eight crosses, seventy
seven for Argentina. We just sawJiu score for a ball whipped in the
(36:27):
box. So crosses and you canadd corners and all balls whipped into the
box. That could be a bigadvantage for France. France has taller players
than Argentina. It might be simple, but players like Gabiaux could be favorite
for me in this one to scorea goal. Players like gabia could be
a big influence in this game scoringon a ball whipped into the box.
(36:51):
And then we can go to bothshot expected goal differential. Yeah, that's
a mouthful and it's quite deep intothe statistic maybe, but you're gonna follow
me for a second. Just justbear with me, because it's important.
It gives an indication of an advantagefrom one team over the other. Here.
(37:13):
I think France has an advantage forthe goalkeepers and I think mixed into
all the crosses that are going tobe whipped into the box, that could
be the big difference because well,the goalkeeper for Argentina could be one of
their well their Achilles heel. Wesaw Martina is do a couple of mistakes
(37:36):
that fortunately did not lead to goalsor anything dangerous of last couple of games,
but could have. But when youplay against a team of friends who
will whip the ball in, willfind ways to put the goalkeeper under pressure
to test his reflexes. We willsee that happen. So you include dance
(37:59):
statistic year of the post shot expectedgoal differential, which well in Lehman's turm.
Okay, quickly, if we talkabout that statistic, it's convoluted how
you can calculate it. And ifyou go on my website soccer to look
at the article that I have previewingthis game, there's a link to an
article explaining what is that statistics.So Argentina conceded one point four goals more
(38:24):
than they're supposed to with the expectedgoals that they have had. France they've
conceded less than they're supposed to,So you have an advantage of point all
five. You're in the green bypoint five, which you're round up to
one. So Lauris save one goalduring this tournament, and one or two
goals were not saved by Matinez.So basically that's what we mean with post
(38:50):
shot expected goal. So in conclusion, and now I'm going to get ready
to do a drum roll. Idon't even think I have a drum roll,
but soon I'll give you my predictionthat you can put some money on
because last time that I had aprediction on my Twitter feed. I said
France would be Morocco to nothing inregulation. And I hope you listen because
(39:15):
if you did look I had,well it was worth your while. So
let's break it down one last time. Let's look at my prediction for this
and you can find my prediction awritten form on my website Soccer Today dot
c A. By the way,thank you to all the visitors of the
website that's Soccer Today DOTA. I'mKevil Army, a professional statistician. It's
(39:37):
been a pleasure creating that website forall of you, and I've enjoyed having
all the numbers and all the visits. It's been really good. So my
prediction is as follows. All right, so let's put some music. We
need some music for this, solet's put I don't have a drum roll,
do, We'll have some I havesome techno, all right, not
(39:57):
some jazzy music. Let's go withsome jazzy music, all right. Prediction
time here with talker. Prediction time. Argentina has, yes, a defensive
advantage, but their offense has beenoverinflated with the performances from the penalty spot.
France has a higher proficiency in generatingshot creating actions from up and play
(40:22):
to Argentina, it will be avery close game, but Ambape will be
too much on the left channels.French will take advantage of that aspect to
whip the ball in the box profuselyand use the height advantage of players like
it have you to score a header. Yes, the goal will come from
(40:43):
a header. One nil. Ican see that goal being scored an extra
time. It could be a nilnil all the way to ninetieth minute,
any injury time and falling into extratime and then one nil there. I
can also see it being nil nilall the way to penalties, and it's
actually decided from the penalty spot,which at one point I still would favor
Friends because of the goalie and becauseof the experience they had in tournament finals
(41:08):
over the years, so that iswhat I would favor. But at the
end of the day, I cansee it very closely being fought. It's
a closely fought match, and asfinals tend to be, it will be
that. And in the end it'sgoing to be a beautiful day and for
(41:30):
the first time in over fifty years, we're going to get back to back
champions a la lebler third star thatTuisi metual on top of the logo.
It's going to appear as you cansee on your screen, al le blursayes
(41:52):
you're going to be standing at confetti. Sorry, messy, it won't be
for you, but Le Blur winninga close one salent will prevail. I
(42:44):
hope you enjoyed this preview show.You can follow me on Twitter at kevl
Army. You can follow this showat Soccer Today's c A. That's Soccer
Today CEA. You can find everythingthat I do here on our website at
Soccer Today dot c A. That'sSoccer Today dot c A. Thank you
very much. You can follow thisshow also everywhere you find your favorite shows.
(43:07):
If you want to contact me andyou would like to have me on
your TV show, on your radioshow, well you can do so.
Kevin on soccer at gmail dot com. Over the next few days, I'll
be on CPB News, I'll beon Kelowna eleven fifty Radio AM also on
other places near you. And asalways, until next time, I'm Kevi
(43:30):
Laramie. I hope you enjoyed thisshow and as always, I wish you
a great soccer
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