October 21, 2025 • 38 mins
Matthew and Eleanor are joined by Tribune D.C. reporter Gabby Birenbaum and radio host Chad Hasty to unpack the three candidates vying to be the Republican nominee for Senate in 2026
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Speaker 1 (00:16):
Hello, and welcome to the Texas trib Cast for Tuesday,
October twenty first, I am Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics
reporter at the Texas Tribune, joined as always by my
co host, editor in chief Matthew Watkins. How's it going, Matthew?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Pretty good? How about yourself?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Pretty good? I don't have much to talk about this week.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
We already talked off camera with our special guest about
tortillas and texts. Texts every weekend.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
If we run out of things to talk about, we
will revisit the subject. But something tells me we will not,
because this week we have a very important conversation to
sort of pick back up on that we've discussed already
on this podcast once or twice, but is becoming the
predominant political story for the next six months or so
because we actually have a three way race for the
(01:03):
US Senate on the Republican side of the ticket, where
incumbent Senator John Cornyn will be facing off against current
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, which we knew they've been
sniping at each other for months now, but we now
have our third candidate, which is a US Representative Wesley Hunt,
(01:23):
who finally, after months of speculation, declared that he would
be running for the seat. For those who, I do
want to pick a bone with Renzo Downey, who is
the author of our subscriber politics newsletter at the Blast
who I believe his headline of the newsletter when Hunt
(01:44):
joined was hunt is in, when so clearly right there
is the hunt is on. So the hunt is on,
and we have quite the race ahead of us. So
we're going to talk about what this means for the
next you know, six months of campaigning and the future
of the seat.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
He hopes it doesn't become a snipe hunt. You will,
uh do you know that?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Don't is a reference to So discuss that and see
if anyone else can help Matthew, you know, be a
better audience for his jokes than me. We're joined by
Gabby beer and Baum, the Washington correspondent for the Texas Tribune,
where she covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact
of federal policy on Texas. Gabby, thanks for joining.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Us, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
And Chad Hasty, the host of The Chad Hasty Show,
which airs weekdays on KFYO and Lubbock and other stations
across the state. Chad, thanks for being here.
Speaker 4 (02:40):
Yeah, thanks for the invitation.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Chad. You know what snipe hunting is.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
Right, Yeah, I know, I don't know where you were going.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Okay, thanks. Snipe hunting is when you like take a
new hunter out into the woods or wherever you're going,
like late at night, to tell them we're going snipe hunting,
which is really just a ploy to like ditch them
alone on a field or something like that. It feels
like practical joke. Right, Yeah, you're good.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Yeah, that's yeah, you got here.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Yeah, that's a actually was a very good thank you.
That was a very good reference, very good potential metaphor.
I'm sorry for not knowing more about hunting. Okay, So
to get into this, I do think we should sort
of briefly go through the candidates and where they each
stand at this point. And Gabby, maybe you can sort
(03:30):
of kick us off before we get to Wesley Hunt.
We had this race Paxton Cornan that's been sort of
foreshadowed for months now. Can you talk a little bit
just about like what each of them represent and where
they stood before he entered the race?
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Yeah, I mean I think with Cornan and Paxton.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
You have, you know, the sort of perfect representation of
the establishment versus more political outsider dynamic. Even though right
Paxton is an elected office holder statewide, is the Attorney General.
John Cornyan has been the Senator from Texas since two
thousand and two, he was attorney general before that. Paxton
has been ag since the twenty fourteen elections.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
And these are two heavy hitters right in Texas politics.
Speaker 5 (04:11):
Paxton has definitely been attacking Cornant from the right, going
after some bipartisan work he did on a gun bill,
his you know, bit slow to support Trump in the
twenty twenty four primary. And Cornet is sort of relying,
I think on He's been promoting his pro Trump voting records,
sort of hugging Trump, his experience, and like you mentioned,
(04:34):
now we've got a third entrant.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Into the race, right yeah, Chad, I mean, what were
you sort of hearing about these these two contenders and
like how people were sort of feeling about the race
as it stood so far.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
You know, it's been interesting because you have Ken Paxton,
who Mike got me and said, is seen as the
outsider even though he's been an elected office for Cornyn
has been there even longer, he has seen as the
more establishment and for conservatives, a lot of my more
conservative listeners who will get in touch with the show,
(05:11):
they're tired of Cornyn. They don't like that he worked
with Democrats on the gun bill, they don't like, they
don't trust and really believe that he is that much
of a fan of Donald Trump. I don't think there's
anyone out there that can envision Trump and Cornyn hanging
out together and going and getting a cup of coffee,
hanging out on the golf course. You've never seen that.
You have seen that with Ken Paxton and Donald Trump.
(05:34):
So I think that for a lot of listeners, they
believe that that is a real relationship in that more importantly,
when Cornyn is out of excuse me, when Trump is
out of office, which will be happening in a few years.
When Trump is out of office, who are they going
to get to defend them? Are they going to get
(05:54):
Cornyn style politics or Paxton solid politics? And most of
my listeners seemingly right now straight towards the Paxton Maga
style of politics that they believe they can count on.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Yeah, I feel like we need to come up with
a new way of describing this from establishment versus outsider
when the outsider is the one who like hangs out
with the president at mar A Lago and like we
can picture golfing with him and the other guy, you know,
we can't, right, It's I guess maybe like more like
old establishment new establishment or something like that. I don't know,
(06:29):
like traditional Republican versus Trump, Republican in.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
The woman embrace out in the cold.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah. And of course Cornyan would I think, dispute any
of this craising right, as he has repeatedly and vocally
stressed his alignment with Trump on virtually every issue since
since Trump is coming to.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Office, right, and he does vote very reliably with Trump's agenda.
So there's sort of the to your points, the do
they get a beer together? Or is corn And carry
you know? But is corn and carrying the mantle of
his policies in Congress perhaps more?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Maybe interested if you agree with this, Chad, more of
a style versus substance, style over substance conversation on those
two things.
Speaker 4 (07:12):
Totally. I think it is a Cornyn has the record,
and I think that if you look at Republicans in
the Senate, there are a lot, if not boast, if
not all of Republicans who are in the Senate, the
old school Republicans, the Lindsey Grahams, the John Cornyns, the
Mitch McConnell's, even though Mitch is kind of kind of
(07:34):
moved back towards not liking Trump. But the old school
Republicans in the Senate, I don't believe that they really
like Donald Trump that much. I think they put up
with them and they go with what's politically expedient. Whereas
Ken Paxton, I think it's a little bit more believable that, yeah,
those two would go golfing together.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Well and Gabby, I mean they were sort of already
the establishment necessarily as a binary group, but just sort
of like the groups that fund these races, that put
money into this were sort of backing Cornyn, not thrilled
already to have him be challenged by Paxton, sort of
kicking off this potentially very expensive primary, and sort of
(08:16):
how were they feeling about, you know, like the money class,
how were they feeling about this race, and then how
were they starting. What was the word on Hunt entering
before he did.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
I think the word on Hunt from the sort of
dec establishment would be contempt they you know, as he
was right signaling that he was interested in the race,
exploring it, they put out a series of memos to
donors and eventually publicly discouraging him from doing so. He
you know, it's been reported that he met with Tim Scott,
the chair Senator Tim Scott, the chairman of the National
Republican Senatorial Committee, which is Senate Republican's sort of campaign
(08:50):
arm and they told him and know on certain terms, no,
you know, we're backing John Cornyn. And so you know,
they already have been frustrated by the Paxton primary at all,
and now they have the other person. And I think
for Hunt that also plays into what he's trying to do,
which is say I'm not part of the establishment.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Yeah, they don't want me here.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
That's for a reason, and trying to sort of claim
the Paxton Es commantle among the Texas primary electorate.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
So let's talk about Wesley Hunt. Like you said, people
were not thrilled that he was going to enter the race,
but he has. Now he is, you know, a current
sitting congressman representing a district in Houston. Gabbie. Who is he,
what does he represent and how is he positioning himself.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
Yeah, I mean Hunt is a second term congressman, so
he doesn't have a huge record right actually in Congress.
I think how he would describe himself as he's someone
who could sort of bridge the divide between the sort
of old money, old guard Republican establishment and the sort
of newer Maga energy. It's been a huge ally of
President Trump's. He was out stumping for him all through
twenty twenty four on the trail. You know, his district
(09:59):
can take both the sort of old donor class in
West Houston and Tom Ball right super Maga suburb area.
So I think his goal would be to try to replicate.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
That coalition statewide.
Speaker 5 (10:09):
Obviously he has, you know, does not have the record
that either Paxton or Cornan has legislatively or in terms
of what Paxton's done with the Astorney General's office. And
so I think for him, it's it's more about trying
to position himself as an heir to the sort of
mega credentials more than running on his record.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Ched what's the sort of name recognition there with with
Wesley Hunt.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
Not much. He's been coming on my show starting going
back to you know, late last year, he was coming
on the show quite a bit raising that name.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
I D.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
That's when I went, Okay, this scene s he's running
for some you know, you don't have a guy from
you know, that part of Texas coming out to West
Texas that often. So he started coming on raising his name.
I D he doesn't have great name.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
I T.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Those who you know are diehard talk show listeners, they
may know who he is, or at least they've heard him.
But is he is well known as Paxton? No, he
is well known as Corynn. Absolutely not nowhere close. But
what I have heard from folks who like Wesley Hunt,
it's usually a younger Republican, a younger demographic or a Republican,
(11:25):
and also someone who looks at Cornyn and goes, I
don't think I can vote for Cornan Paxton. I don't
like the either real or perceived baggage that Paxton carries
with him. Leslie hunts Hey, he's conservative, he's uber conservative,
he's uber maga. Why not?
Speaker 2 (11:48):
So? The million dollar question I think that everyone is
sort of asking and maybe not sure the answer now
is who does Hunt's inclusion in the race hurt more?
Cornyn or Paxton? What's your opinion on that? Chad.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
I believe it hurts corn And here's why. I think
that there are there's a certain segment of conservative Republicans
who won't vote for Ken Paxton because of the baggage.
I think that they won't vote for Paxton and they
don't want to vote for Corny. They were looking for somebody.
(12:26):
Now I think he takes votes away from Cornyn and
that's what gets Paxton and Cornyn into a runoff. I
think that again, I think Wesley Hunt wants to win.
But if Paxton was still up by fifteen to twenty
points in the polls, I don't think Hunt would have
announced it right now that he was jumping into this race.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Do you agree with that, Gabby, Yeah, I think that's
definitely a fair point. I think the sort of the
other side of that would be.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
And I've heard this from some academics that you know,
cornyin kind of has what and it's hard to like,
you know, put these on ideological spectrums, but corn has
we could call the center right lane to himself. And
now you have both, even though obviously Cornyn wants support
from more MAGA voters. Now you have both Paxson and
Hunt in the sort of mag Lane and that could
potentially dilute that vote. I guess that would just be
the other side of that. But I go back and
(13:17):
forth because I feel like I see both sides, and
a lot of poles show he's pulling fifty to fifty
from both or close to it.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
So I have a poll in front of me, ut
Tyler Pole, which was admittedly taken in the field back
in September before Hunt went into this race. In the
among the Republican primary electorate, they asked, you know who
you'd vote for, Cornyn Packson. Cornan led thirty nine thirty
seven with twenty three percent undecided. With Hunt in the race.
(13:46):
It was Paston thirty one, Cornin twenty nine, Hunt fourteen
and twenty six percent undecided. So actually the undecided number
went up three percent with Hunt in the race, which
I thought was interesting. But would to you know, support
both of y'all's theory that at least, you know, maybe
not in a massive way. But from that poll, Hunt
(14:09):
pulling more Cornan voters than Paxton voters.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
That is interesting because right I think, you know, you
might think from the outside, well, if he and Paxton
are fighting over the same voters, But I do think
that the Paxton, you know, like you said, the real
or perceived baggage is sort of the wild card here
as much as anything, and is interesting. Hunt is sort
of starting himself off. He's not saying I'm Paxton without
(14:35):
the baggage. He's saying, oh, I'm a younger Paxton, which
is sort of, you know, certainly not an issue that's
been raised around Ken Paxton. He's younger than John Cornyan,
younger than many of our elective officials.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
But Gabby, you I think pointed out or someone pointed
out in the story that you wrote this week last
week last week, that maybe he doesn't have to go
after Paxson for the baggage because other people are going
to go after packing yourself, let the people.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
Yeah, it kind of feels like the Spider Man meme
where everyone's pointing at someone else. Right, Like Cornan is
attacking Paxton constantly in Cornon's allies, so there's no need
for Hunt to necessarily do that, especially trying to win
those same voters. Hunt is attacking corn and I think
to sort of try to that helps prove his uh,
you know, his magat credentials.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
And then Paxton is also attacking Cornin although for the
most part Pakston has that really started spending and so
with everybody sort of pointing at each other, yeah, it
sort of quits a scenario where there's going to be
negative chatter about each person, but maybe coming from a
different one.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
I mean, Attorney General Ken Paxton has since before he
even entered office, it had some had some cloud hanging
over him with different scales, and you know, he has
withstood an impeachment attempt, most of his legal issues have
been resolved. He has been elected three times the state
wide office. Despite that, Is there any reason to think
(16:07):
now is different? And is the divorce playing into that
at all?
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Chad?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Do you have a sense of that.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
I don't think any of the other stuff really matters
for the average Republican voter. I don't think any of
that matters. Maybe the divorce plays in a little bit.
I this, I mean, let's let's let's be honest here.
This isn't two thousand and one. This isn't uh, you know,
the the old school Bush Republican Party where you know,
(16:37):
if you had a divorce or you cheated on your wife,
that was automatically you're you're exiled. Uh, you know into uh,
you know, into the uh, you know, out of the
Republican Party that's not this Republican Party. Uh. So I
don't think there's a huge focus there. Again, I think
it's a very small selection of Republican voters who look
(16:59):
at Paxton and go, if you didn't have that baggage,
I would vote for you, But they can't vote for Corning.
So they needed that other person. And I think that's
where Wesley Hunt comes into play here. And you look
at Cornyn and you look at the Paxton camp, the
Paxton camp. Aside from some Twitter comments, no one's really
(17:19):
punched down at Wesley Hunt. The Corner campaign went immediately
after Wesley Hunt and went after him pretty hard on
a few things that most voters don't care about right now. Anyway,
he's missed two hundred votes or whatever. No one in
the Republican primary at this point cares about that. So
I think, again, the baggage, you know, the only baggage
(17:41):
that really matters, I think for Republican voters, Kid, I
think it's a very small select number is the divorce
and how some of that may or may not be
playing now. Jen.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It's been interesting though, because when Paxton entered the race,
the conventionalism and the polling seemed to suggest that he
had a very large lead over Cornyn, and that lead
pulling seems to suggest has either shrunk significantly or disappeared.
You know, there has been, you know, as has been mentioned,
(18:14):
some negative headlines. The divorce, the you know, the impeachment
trial in part was centered around you know, accusations that
he was having an affair with someone, I mean, the
impeachment also, you know, I mean a lot of very
conservative people in his office directly accused him of a crime.
I mean, And the US Senate race is different than
(18:38):
an attorney general race, Like, I think probably more people
in Texas know who their senators are than know who
the attorney general is. I'm curious, I sort of I
hear you say that, and I believe you, and I
think you're probably right that some of these problems don't
have an effect on you know, Paxson among the Republican
primary electorate. But then I see his le sort of evaporating,
(19:01):
and I'm trying to figure out what accounts for that?
Is it a mirage? Are these things starting to land
with him? Like? What do you think about that?
Speaker 4 (19:11):
I think that it's it's where money comes into play.
And you have the Corning campaign and money that from
from the Republican I guess Republican Senate Committee that has
come in and really spent a lot millions of dollars
already backing John Cornyn and promoting Hey, John Corn's best
(19:35):
friends with Donald Trump. Those two like each other. John
corn has voted with Donald Trump ninety nine percent of
the time. Not wrong, by the way, but they're promoting
all the good things. And as Gabby mentioned, the Paxton camp,
they've done a lot of online stuff. They've done, you know,
some tweets, but they haven't gone full throated after John
(19:55):
Cornyn yet in TV ads. So that's that's where the
money war comes in the play here. And who's going
to be best, uh, you know, the best in the
best area with money, and right now that's John Cornyn.
He's able to get his message out there. And and
you know, I still go back to there are so
many voters they don't pay attention unfortunately, Uh, they don't
(20:18):
pay attention to what happens in down in Austin. They're
not always paying attention to what's happening in the legislative process,
and when it gets to some of the politics and
all that, they really don't pay attention. They care about
the votes, and they care about what they see on TV.
And uh that that right now has I think that's
what's brought up John Corn's numbers and lowered Ken Paxton's numbers.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Yeah, Gaby, can you talk us through a little bit
more like where the money stands and what that says
about their prospects.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
Yeah, so the corn in camp, and I would say,
you know, more of the super pack that's backing him,
and that's you know, being managed by Chris los Avita, right,
Who's Who's Trump's guy. They've you know, the constellation of
pro enforces have spent I think close to thirty million
dollars on this race. And I think if you turned
on the TV right in any of the media markets
in Texas, you know you're seeing pictures of Corn in
with Trump and that that you know, ninety nine percent
(21:11):
pro Trump voting record, stuff like that. The backs and campaign,
like Tad mentioned, really has.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Not spent money at scale, and so I think.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
You know, there they feel like they can wait, they
can afford to wait until later in the race.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
They also have a lot.
Speaker 5 (21:24):
Less money than the corn In campaign, and so I
think we'll have to see once they start spending how
that changes things. But I think a Cornin optimist would say, yeah,
he's closed the gap. All this polling shows that it's
really close, and a pessimist might say, well, you know,
even in these races, he's an even in these polls,
he's a sitting incumban, and he's not really getting over
forty percent. And as you mentioned, there's still you know,
(21:45):
about a quarter of the elector and most of these
polls that haven't decided. Uh, And you know that's one factor.
The other factor is, I think this will be interesting too,
more independent leaning voters, which primary do they end up
voting in if at all, you know, do they end
up voting in their Republican primary, credit primary or sitting out?
And so I think these are some of the things
that we still don't know yet and are going to develop.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, I mean, I think the conventional wisdom, as we
the thing we haven't talked about with Hunt is that
three candidates increases the likelihood of a runoff. And if
you are the establishment candidate, if you are the incumbent,
a runoff is not a place you want to be,
and so that alone could could could hurt Cornan in
that way. I want to circle back really quickly to
(22:26):
something that I find incredibly fascinating. Gabby. You mentioned the
NRSC right, the UH, the the Republican kind of arm campaign,
arm for for for the Senate, and they're strong support
of Cornan. I'm going to read a handful of quotes
from n r SC communications director Joanna Rodriguez that have
(22:47):
come out in recent months. What Ken Paxon has put
his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one
should have to endure what Angela Paxson has, and we
pray that she chooses to stand up for herself and
family during this time. That's one quote. A lot of
people who trust Kim Paxton get lied to, so it
isn't shocking to learn he's also cheating on his taxes
(23:10):
in personal finances. Texans deserve a senator who protects children,
not one like Paxton, who signed off on your tax
dollars funding the woke left. And Kim Paxton's incompetence is
chief law enforcement officer has allowed crime to run rampant
across the lone Star state. They also try to Wesley
(23:31):
Hunt for personal ambition for running to this race instead
of you know, thinking through. It's wild to me to
hear the NRSC, which is devoted to electing Republicans to
the US Senate, be blasting perhaps the front runner in
the Republican primary in that kind of language, you know,
(23:55):
a year before election day. It tell me a little
bit about like, what what's going on here? And are
they not worried that all these quotes are going to
come back and bite them when if we get to
a position where Ken Paxon is the nominee.
Speaker 5 (24:09):
Yeah, I mean Joanna is not shy. That's certainly part
of it. A. I think the things to understand are one, like,
these organizations like the NRSC exist to protect their own right.
I mean, their number one job is protecting their incumbents.
Number two is growing the map, right is adding seats
and the incumbent. You know, the incumbents will give them
hell if they feel like, you know, they're not getting
(24:29):
they're not getting properly helped there.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
A B.
Speaker 5 (24:33):
They feel like they've a finite amount of resources. This
is a big map. They're trying to pick up a seat,
in Georgia, they've got to defend a seat in Maine,
they've got to defend a seed in North Carolina, maybe
Alaska comes into play. You know, they don't want to
be spending money in Texas, and so they feel like
if they're going to spend, they'd rather spend in the
primary to help Corny then have to you know, keep
(24:54):
spending through the general because they do feel that Paxon
is vulnerable in a general election, you know, and people can.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
Argue about whether that's true or not.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
If I've heard some people say, you know, maybe Cornon
wins by eight and Paxson wins by four, you know,
and some people say, no, this really does feel like
it's a liability.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Given what happened in eighteen with Senator Cruz.
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Right, But I think the nrsc's mission right now is
to a protect the incumbent and be properly adjudicate their resources.
And you know, they'll say, they'll say, any dollar we
spend in Texas is a dollar that could have been
spent in Maine, or in North Carolina, or in Georgia,
and we don't want to have to worry about this
red state.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Right.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
But yeah, I mean I think there's obviously a real
chance that Ken Paxton becomes the nominee.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And then they are going to have to support him
and perhaps eat their.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Words a little bit and listen. It doesn't This is
not the most important part what we should say in
Texas the attorney general is not the top law enforcement officer.
They are the top lawyer. They have no criminal independent
criminal jurisdiction. It doesn't matter anyway. The other piece of
this that we don't yet have is the much desired
(25:57):
Trump endorsements that could sway this a lot. JAHI, where
do you see that going and how much of an
impact do you think that makes? When we do hear
from the president.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
I think Trump stays out of it unless something insane happens.
I just I think that Trump he want one. He
wants the vote of John Cornyn while John Cornyn is there,
so he doesn't want to upset that. And John Cornyn
has for the most part, been very loyal to Trump
(26:27):
while Trump's been elected and in office. Has Cornyn made
other comments while Trump's not in office, Absolutely he has.
But while in office, Trump or excuse me, Cornyn has
been a loyal soldier. Trump appreciates loyalty we all know
that we've seen that before that Trump appreciates loyalty. I
(26:47):
think he stays out of it. I don't think that
he endorses in a primary. If it goes to a runoff,
maybe maybe he would, but I don't think the politics
of it right now for the White House, I think
they look at it and go where, we don't want
to touch this because we don't want to anger either
(27:08):
side because we're going to need their vote at some point.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Yeah, certainly, right, It's like it could sort of bring
all of this to an end pretty quickly if he
did intervene. But you're right that there's sort of not
a huge strategic benefit to there to the Trump camp
to do that.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, should we talk about the Democrats.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
The other side of the ticket. I was just going
to say, yeah, there is another race particular.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
Yeah, you know James Talerico, Colin Allred, so far, so far,
tall Rico of course. You know a lot of like
early Beto vibes, you know, in terms of ability to
raise money, getting some.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Attention, Barack Obama shout out.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Barack Obama's shout out, you know, excited people on social media,
all those types of things. I'm looking at this ut
Tyler pole, which you know pulls the hypothetical matchups, has
Cornan beating tall Rico by six, has Paxton beating tall
Rico by one. If you look at Colin Allred and
(28:14):
also has uh Tallerco actually beating Hunt by one, although
there's a lot of undecideds in all those numbers. If
you look at all Red, h Cornan beating all Read
by six, beating Paxton by three.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Already beats Paxton by three. Tall Rico loses to Paxson
by one.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Is that what you said first? And before we go
into that, go ahead, Chad, give us the uh, give
us tell us what we should be thinking about these polls,
you know, more than a year ahead of the election season.
Speaker 4 (28:53):
They're fun to talk about. They're fun. It gives us
something to talk about. But it doesn't matter I prove it.
You know, it's one of those I've seen how many
times have we seen this from the Democrats and the
the the early race that that's out there, whether it
was Beto or even calling all Red. Hey, we're excited,
(29:14):
this person has momentum. We're so far away and they're
beating Republicans. Have the numbers in Texas Republicans are going
to turn up the vote. We know that they're They're
going to show up for their guy. I think, no
matter who it is, I'm not that part honestly does
not worry me. Who gets the nomination and if tall
(29:35):
Rico or all Red is going to be able to
beat them if I were the Democrats, and they will
not listen to me, I know this, But if I
were to give advice to the Democrats, go all in
with tallar Rico. You lost with all Rid already, go
all in now with Tall Rico, save your money in
the primary, and just get ready for an all out
(29:56):
war in the general election. And I mean Tall Rico
I think is the Democrats' best bet as of right now.
Colin Alred has shown that he can't win. He can't
beat John Cornyn, He's not going to beat Ken Baxton.
Democrats kind of want that outsider, that younger voice. To me,
that's Tall Rico. He presents a different argument that's out there. Again.
(30:21):
I don't think that he can win. But if I
were the Democrats, I'd put all the money, all my
cards on Tall Rico and tell Colin Alred it's time
to bow out.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Geby. Do you think the Republican establishment, the people working
for the campaigns agree, would they rather face already over
tall Rico.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
I think they'd rather face Jasmine Crockett.
Speaker 5 (30:44):
Because they are definitely trying to push polls that show
her head and promoting that narrative, which she's well aware of.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
But yeah, I mean I kind of yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:53):
I think from what I can tell, they feel like
they could win either way, and I certainly all the
history would back that up.
Speaker 4 (31:02):
Right.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
It helps that they've already beat all Red, and.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
You know, the attacks on all Read particularly, I think
the attacks around trans women and men's sports right were
really effective last cycle. You know, those ads ran at
scale last cycle. That's probably already in people's minds. Tallerco
is newer, right, you have to go to the business
of defining him, which they've already done for all Red.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
So yeah, I think maybe that's that's probably part of it.
But you know, Taller Reco, that's what the primers be about.
Speaker 5 (31:31):
Can he get his sort of name idea up enough
to beat someone who like Colonel Read, who most people
already know because he did run statewide.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
So jed your confidence in the Republicans suggests to me
that you don't think that the Republican primary voters should
be making a what's our best chance in November calculation? Here?
Is that? Right?
Speaker 4 (31:53):
No? I think that the Republican primary voters should vote
for who represents them and who they want to fight
for them moving forward, because and again, until we see
something that's different from the Democrats, they haven't shown that
they can come out and win statewide office. And so
(32:14):
you know, taking down a US senator, taking a US
Senate seat would be a huge monumental shift in Texas,
and I don't see that with I don't think that
with either of these candidates. And I think with Ken
Paxton and with John Cornyn, eventually the Republicans are just
going to turn out and they're going to vote in this.
So I would know, I would just tell Republican primary voters,
(32:37):
whoever you like the best, go and vote for that person.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Yeah, that's you know. I do think a lot of
the speculation about who can win, you know, at the
at the general feel so far away right now from
you know, what the average voter is thinking about. To
your point, Chad of like, how much does anyone follow
any of this? Like I don't you know. I think
the average voter is listening to the ads and going
with what they know versus some like strategic three D
(33:03):
chess game, probably a.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Game that the Democrats would tell you often doesn't work
out very well. Right, Like, it's harder than maybe we
think to predict who actually fair will fare better in
a general election.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Yeah, three D chess sometimes gets on top of you
a little bit. Yeah, you know, this is like a
completely separate piece of this, But Gabby, I did want
to just briefly touch on your story this week about
a much sooner congressional race that is coming up just
right around the corner. Early voting has started for Texas
(33:37):
eight Texas's eighteenth congressional district, which is, to put it lightly,
a mess of a race. We've got like a very
confusing situation on our hands. Could you just briefly sort
of summarize what's going on there and what you're watching
out for.
Speaker 5 (33:52):
Yeah, I was trying to explain this to my grandma
the other day, which was a very difficult task.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (33:57):
So people recall Texas eighteen has been without a long
term solution for a while. It's in Houston, it's had
a history of having sort of really storied black Democratic politicians.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
It had been Sheila Jackson Lee for years.
Speaker 5 (34:10):
She died in the summer of twenty twenty four, you know,
after the primary. So the Harris County Democratic Party got
together and picked the former mayor, Sylvester Turner to be
on the ballot in November.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
He won, he took.
Speaker 5 (34:23):
Office in January, and then he passed away in March.
So the seat has been open ever since. Governor Abbott
set the special election date for this November, right, so
early voting just started. And what's even more confusing is
that this election is taking place under the old lines
rights to fill out a term that was elected under
the old map, but seventy five percent of the voters
(34:44):
in the current eighteen are being moved to other districts
under the new map, So there's a lot of confusion
about who can even vote. A lot of neighborhoods, you know,
in the northern end of Harris County that are right
now in Texas eighteen that are going to be moved
to twenty nine. And candidates are really trying to make
sure that voters know, hey, you can still vote in
this special and it's going to get even messier, right,
because there's like sixteen candidates, it's you know, almost certainly
(35:07):
going to go to a runoff. That runoff will happen
in January or February, and that's going to run right
into early voting for the March primary under the new lines,
where Congressman Al Green, who right now is in the
neighboring ninth got moved into the eighteenth under the new map,
has heavily hinted he's going to end up running in
that primary. So this could end up being someone describes
(35:27):
to me as a hell of a door prize where
somebody you know has been running for months takes office
and let's say February, and then immediately have to decide
if they want to run in a primary against one
of the most well known Democrats in Houston or sort
of bow out, and then that seed could end up
having another, you know, pretty old representative. So there's just
a lot of dynamics at play here age redistricting.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
That's that's going to be a storyline for months in Houston.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
I will say I was sort of cheered by your
the detail in your story about how like the candidates
were saying like they keep confronting people or like meeting
voters who are having to confront the issue of Like
the voters are like, well, didn't the lines get redrawn?
Am I even in this district? How do I vote?
Speaker 2 (36:08):
All this?
Speaker 1 (36:08):
And it's like, well, people really know about redistricting, they
have really been paying attention. Doesn't help in this race.
I feel sorry for those candidates, but man, the word
is out about for all.
Speaker 5 (36:19):
I think a ton of awareness about redistricting from what
I can tell from the candidates, and.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
Like people very much know, Like, oh, but I don't.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
Live in eighteen anymore, And the candid's like, no, but
you still do for the purposes of this election and
probably a runoff, you know, It's Yeah, it's really confusing
for people there, especially because you know, for many of them,
they haven't had right a representative for months. They might
have been kind of tuned out of this entirely. A
lot of people don't even know that the special is
going on.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Yeah, for all of our you know, perhaps not for
all of our I think correctly estimating how much voters
pay attention to any of this, it appears that at
least in the eighteenth Congressional District, where they are getting
sort of pulled around by the powers that be. They
at least are very very attentive to what's going on.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
We should just have like a we should record ourselves
saying like, but most voters actually don't know or care,
and we can just like have a soundboard in the
podcast and.
Speaker 1 (37:12):
Yeah, right, yeah, we should start and end everything. That's
a ceremonial. Yeah exactly, well right, I mean, that is
like such a complicated little corner of politics right now.
But obviously we'll be watching to see what happens with that,
and then the real race is on the you know,
for the the main primaries in twenty twenty six, which
(37:33):
will be March third, the day in between my birthday
and Alejandra Serrano's birthday. So a big week for the
politics team.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Press of the voters don't care about.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Voters don't care, that is for sure. Well, thank you
guys so much for joining us. Chad, thanks for calling
in from Lubbock, and Gabby from DC. That is it
for this week's episode of the trib Cast. You can
find us on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
Our producers are Rob and Chris, and we will see
you next week.
Hello, and welcome to the Texas trib Cast for Tuesday,
October twenty first, I am Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics
reporter at the Texas Tribune, joined as always by my
co host, editor in chief Matthew Watkins. How's it going, Matthew?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Pretty good? How about yourself?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Pretty good? I don't have much to talk about this week.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
We already talked off camera with our special guest about
tortillas and texts. Texts every weekend.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
If we run out of things to talk about, we
will revisit the subject. But something tells me we will not,
because this week we have a very important conversation to
sort of pick back up on that we've discussed already
on this podcast once or twice, but is becoming the
predominant political story for the next six months or so
because we actually have a three way race for the
(01:03):
US Senate on the Republican side of the ticket, where
incumbent Senator John Cornyn will be facing off against current
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, which we knew they've been
sniping at each other for months now, but we now
have our third candidate, which is a US Representative Wesley Hunt,
(01:23):
who finally, after months of speculation, declared that he would
be running for the seat. For those who, I do
want to pick a bone with Renzo Downey, who is
the author of our subscriber politics newsletter at the Blast
who I believe his headline of the newsletter when Hunt
(01:44):
joined was hunt is in, when so clearly right there
is the hunt is on. So the hunt is on,
and we have quite the race ahead of us. So
we're going to talk about what this means for the
next you know, six months of campaigning and the future
of the seat.
Speaker 2 (02:03):
He hopes it doesn't become a snipe hunt. You will,
uh do you know that?
Speaker 1 (02:09):
Don't is a reference to So discuss that and see
if anyone else can help Matthew, you know, be a
better audience for his jokes than me. We're joined by
Gabby beer and Baum, the Washington correspondent for the Texas Tribune,
where she covers the Texas congressional delegation and the impact
of federal policy on Texas. Gabby, thanks for joining.
Speaker 3 (02:28):
Us, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 1 (02:31):
And Chad Hasty, the host of The Chad Hasty Show,
which airs weekdays on KFYO and Lubbock and other stations
across the state. Chad, thanks for being here.
Speaker 4 (02:40):
Yeah, thanks for the invitation.
Speaker 2 (02:42):
Chad. You know what snipe hunting is.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
Right, Yeah, I know, I don't know where you were going.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
Okay, thanks. Snipe hunting is when you like take a
new hunter out into the woods or wherever you're going,
like late at night, to tell them we're going snipe hunting,
which is really just a ploy to like ditch them
alone on a field or something like that. It feels
like practical joke. Right, Yeah, you're good.
Speaker 4 (03:07):
Yeah, that's yeah, you got here.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Yeah, that's a actually was a very good thank you.
That was a very good reference, very good potential metaphor.
I'm sorry for not knowing more about hunting. Okay, So
to get into this, I do think we should sort
of briefly go through the candidates and where they each
stand at this point. And Gabby, maybe you can sort
(03:30):
of kick us off before we get to Wesley Hunt.
We had this race Paxton Cornan that's been sort of
foreshadowed for months now. Can you talk a little bit
just about like what each of them represent and where
they stood before he entered the race?
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Yeah, I mean I think with Cornan and Paxton.
Speaker 5 (03:47):
You have, you know, the sort of perfect representation of
the establishment versus more political outsider dynamic. Even though right
Paxton is an elected office holder statewide, is the Attorney General.
John Cornyan has been the Senator from Texas since two
thousand and two, he was attorney general before that. Paxton
has been ag since the twenty fourteen elections.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
And these are two heavy hitters right in Texas politics.
Speaker 5 (04:11):
Paxton has definitely been attacking Cornant from the right, going
after some bipartisan work he did on a gun bill,
his you know, bit slow to support Trump in the
twenty twenty four primary. And Cornet is sort of relying,
I think on He's been promoting his pro Trump voting records,
sort of hugging Trump, his experience, and like you mentioned,
(04:34):
now we've got a third entrant.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
Into the race, right yeah, Chad, I mean, what were
you sort of hearing about these these two contenders and
like how people were sort of feeling about the race
as it stood so far.
Speaker 4 (04:48):
You know, it's been interesting because you have Ken Paxton,
who Mike got me and said, is seen as the
outsider even though he's been an elected office for Cornyn
has been there even longer, he has seen as the
more establishment and for conservatives, a lot of my more
conservative listeners who will get in touch with the show,
(05:11):
they're tired of Cornyn. They don't like that he worked
with Democrats on the gun bill, they don't like, they
don't trust and really believe that he is that much
of a fan of Donald Trump. I don't think there's
anyone out there that can envision Trump and Cornyn hanging
out together and going and getting a cup of coffee,
hanging out on the golf course. You've never seen that.
You have seen that with Ken Paxton and Donald Trump.
(05:34):
So I think that for a lot of listeners, they
believe that that is a real relationship in that more importantly,
when Cornyn is out of excuse me, when Trump is
out of office, which will be happening in a few years.
When Trump is out of office, who are they going
to get to defend them? Are they going to get
(05:54):
Cornyn style politics or Paxton solid politics? And most of
my listeners seemingly right now straight towards the Paxton Maga
style of politics that they believe they can count on.
Speaker 2 (06:09):
Yeah, I feel like we need to come up with
a new way of describing this from establishment versus outsider
when the outsider is the one who like hangs out
with the president at mar A Lago and like we
can picture golfing with him and the other guy, you know,
we can't, right, It's I guess maybe like more like
old establishment new establishment or something like that. I don't know,
(06:29):
like traditional Republican versus Trump, Republican in.
Speaker 1 (06:33):
The woman embrace out in the cold.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Yeah. And of course Cornyan would I think, dispute any
of this craising right, as he has repeatedly and vocally
stressed his alignment with Trump on virtually every issue since
since Trump is coming to.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
Office, right, and he does vote very reliably with Trump's agenda.
So there's sort of the to your points, the do
they get a beer together? Or is corn And carry
you know? But is corn and carrying the mantle of
his policies in Congress perhaps more?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Maybe interested if you agree with this, Chad, more of
a style versus substance, style over substance conversation on those
two things.
Speaker 4 (07:12):
Totally. I think it is a Cornyn has the record,
and I think that if you look at Republicans in
the Senate, there are a lot, if not boast, if
not all of Republicans who are in the Senate, the
old school Republicans, the Lindsey Grahams, the John Cornyns, the
Mitch McConnell's, even though Mitch is kind of kind of
(07:34):
moved back towards not liking Trump. But the old school
Republicans in the Senate, I don't believe that they really
like Donald Trump that much. I think they put up
with them and they go with what's politically expedient. Whereas
Ken Paxton, I think it's a little bit more believable that, yeah,
those two would go golfing together.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
Well and Gabby, I mean they were sort of already
the establishment necessarily as a binary group, but just sort
of like the groups that fund these races, that put
money into this were sort of backing Cornyn, not thrilled
already to have him be challenged by Paxton, sort of
kicking off this potentially very expensive primary, and sort of
(08:16):
how were they feeling about, you know, like the money class,
how were they feeling about this race, and then how
were they starting. What was the word on Hunt entering
before he did.
Speaker 5 (08:27):
I think the word on Hunt from the sort of
dec establishment would be contempt they you know, as he
was right signaling that he was interested in the race,
exploring it, they put out a series of memos to
donors and eventually publicly discouraging him from doing so. He
you know, it's been reported that he met with Tim Scott,
the chair Senator Tim Scott, the chairman of the National
Republican Senatorial Committee, which is Senate Republican's sort of campaign
(08:50):
arm and they told him and know on certain terms, no,
you know, we're backing John Cornyn. And so you know,
they already have been frustrated by the Paxton primary at all,
and now they have the other person. And I think
for Hunt that also plays into what he's trying to do,
which is say I'm not part of the establishment.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
Yeah, they don't want me here.
Speaker 5 (09:07):
That's for a reason, and trying to sort of claim
the Paxton Es commantle among the Texas primary electorate.
Speaker 1 (09:14):
So let's talk about Wesley Hunt. Like you said, people
were not thrilled that he was going to enter the race,
but he has. Now he is, you know, a current
sitting congressman representing a district in Houston. Gabbie. Who is he,
what does he represent and how is he positioning himself.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
Yeah, I mean Hunt is a second term congressman, so
he doesn't have a huge record right actually in Congress.
I think how he would describe himself as he's someone
who could sort of bridge the divide between the sort
of old money, old guard Republican establishment and the sort
of newer Maga energy. It's been a huge ally of
President Trump's. He was out stumping for him all through
twenty twenty four on the trail. You know, his district
(09:59):
can take both the sort of old donor class in
West Houston and Tom Ball right super Maga suburb area.
So I think his goal would be to try to replicate.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
That coalition statewide.
Speaker 5 (10:09):
Obviously he has, you know, does not have the record
that either Paxton or Cornan has legislatively or in terms
of what Paxton's done with the Astorney General's office. And
so I think for him, it's it's more about trying
to position himself as an heir to the sort of
mega credentials more than running on his record.
Speaker 1 (10:29):
Ched what's the sort of name recognition there with with
Wesley Hunt.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
Not much. He's been coming on my show starting going
back to you know, late last year, he was coming
on the show quite a bit raising that name.
Speaker 1 (10:47):
I D.
Speaker 4 (10:48):
That's when I went, Okay, this scene s he's running
for some you know, you don't have a guy from
you know, that part of Texas coming out to West
Texas that often. So he started coming on raising his name.
I D he doesn't have great name.
Speaker 1 (11:01):
I T.
Speaker 4 (11:02):
Those who you know are diehard talk show listeners, they
may know who he is, or at least they've heard him.
But is he is well known as Paxton? No, he
is well known as Corynn. Absolutely not nowhere close. But
what I have heard from folks who like Wesley Hunt,
it's usually a younger Republican, a younger demographic or a Republican,
(11:25):
and also someone who looks at Cornyn and goes, I
don't think I can vote for Cornan Paxton. I don't
like the either real or perceived baggage that Paxton carries
with him. Leslie hunts Hey, he's conservative, he's uber conservative,
he's uber maga. Why not?
Speaker 2 (11:48):
So? The million dollar question I think that everyone is
sort of asking and maybe not sure the answer now
is who does Hunt's inclusion in the race hurt more?
Cornyn or Paxton? What's your opinion on that? Chad.
Speaker 4 (12:05):
I believe it hurts corn And here's why. I think
that there are there's a certain segment of conservative Republicans
who won't vote for Ken Paxton because of the baggage.
I think that they won't vote for Paxton and they
don't want to vote for Corny. They were looking for somebody.
(12:26):
Now I think he takes votes away from Cornyn and
that's what gets Paxton and Cornyn into a runoff. I
think that again, I think Wesley Hunt wants to win.
But if Paxton was still up by fifteen to twenty
points in the polls, I don't think Hunt would have
announced it right now that he was jumping into this race.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
Do you agree with that, Gabby, Yeah, I think that's
definitely a fair point. I think the sort of the
other side of that would be.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
And I've heard this from some academics that you know,
cornyin kind of has what and it's hard to like,
you know, put these on ideological spectrums, but corn has
we could call the center right lane to himself. And
now you have both, even though obviously Cornyn wants support
from more MAGA voters. Now you have both Paxson and
Hunt in the sort of mag Lane and that could
potentially dilute that vote. I guess that would just be
the other side of that. But I go back and
(13:17):
forth because I feel like I see both sides, and
a lot of poles show he's pulling fifty to fifty
from both or close to it.
Speaker 2 (13:23):
So I have a poll in front of me, ut
Tyler Pole, which was admittedly taken in the field back
in September before Hunt went into this race. In the
among the Republican primary electorate, they asked, you know who
you'd vote for, Cornyn Packson. Cornan led thirty nine thirty
seven with twenty three percent undecided. With Hunt in the race.
(13:46):
It was Paston thirty one, Cornin twenty nine, Hunt fourteen
and twenty six percent undecided. So actually the undecided number
went up three percent with Hunt in the race, which
I thought was interesting. But would to you know, support
both of y'all's theory that at least, you know, maybe
not in a massive way. But from that poll, Hunt
(14:09):
pulling more Cornan voters than Paxton voters.
Speaker 1 (14:14):
That is interesting because right I think, you know, you
might think from the outside, well, if he and Paxton
are fighting over the same voters, But I do think
that the Paxton, you know, like you said, the real
or perceived baggage is sort of the wild card here
as much as anything, and is interesting. Hunt is sort
of starting himself off. He's not saying I'm Paxton without
(14:35):
the baggage. He's saying, oh, I'm a younger Paxton, which
is sort of, you know, certainly not an issue that's
been raised around Ken Paxton. He's younger than John Cornyan,
younger than many of our elective officials.
Speaker 2 (14:48):
But Gabby, you I think pointed out or someone pointed
out in the story that you wrote this week last
week last week, that maybe he doesn't have to go
after Paxson for the baggage because other people are going
to go after packing yourself, let the people.
Speaker 5 (15:07):
Yeah, it kind of feels like the Spider Man meme
where everyone's pointing at someone else. Right, Like Cornan is
attacking Paxton constantly in Cornon's allies, so there's no need
for Hunt to necessarily do that, especially trying to win
those same voters. Hunt is attacking corn and I think
to sort of try to that helps prove his uh,
you know, his magat credentials.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
Uh.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
And then Paxton is also attacking Cornin although for the
most part Pakston has that really started spending and so
with everybody sort of pointing at each other, yeah, it
sort of quits a scenario where there's going to be
negative chatter about each person, but maybe coming from a
different one.
Speaker 1 (15:42):
I mean, Attorney General Ken Paxton has since before he
even entered office, it had some had some cloud hanging
over him with different scales, and you know, he has
withstood an impeachment attempt, most of his legal issues have
been resolved. He has been elected three times the state
wide office. Despite that, Is there any reason to think
(16:07):
now is different? And is the divorce playing into that
at all?
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Chad?
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Do you have a sense of that.
Speaker 4 (16:15):
I don't think any of the other stuff really matters
for the average Republican voter. I don't think any of
that matters. Maybe the divorce plays in a little bit.
I this, I mean, let's let's let's be honest here.
This isn't two thousand and one. This isn't uh, you know,
the the old school Bush Republican Party where you know,
(16:37):
if you had a divorce or you cheated on your wife,
that was automatically you're you're exiled. Uh, you know into uh,
you know, into the uh, you know, out of the
Republican Party that's not this Republican Party. Uh. So I
don't think there's a huge focus there. Again, I think
it's a very small selection of Republican voters who look
(16:59):
at Paxton and go, if you didn't have that baggage,
I would vote for you, But they can't vote for Corning.
So they needed that other person. And I think that's
where Wesley Hunt comes into play here. And you look
at Cornyn and you look at the Paxton camp, the
Paxton camp. Aside from some Twitter comments, no one's really
(17:19):
punched down at Wesley Hunt. The Corner campaign went immediately
after Wesley Hunt and went after him pretty hard on
a few things that most voters don't care about right now. Anyway,
he's missed two hundred votes or whatever. No one in
the Republican primary at this point cares about that. So
I think, again, the baggage, you know, the only baggage
(17:41):
that really matters, I think for Republican voters, Kid, I
think it's a very small select number is the divorce
and how some of that may or may not be
playing now. Jen.
Speaker 2 (17:51):
It's been interesting though, because when Paxton entered the race,
the conventionalism and the polling seemed to suggest that he
had a very large lead over Cornyn, and that lead
pulling seems to suggest has either shrunk significantly or disappeared.
You know, there has been, you know, as has been mentioned,
(18:14):
some negative headlines. The divorce, the you know, the impeachment
trial in part was centered around you know, accusations that
he was having an affair with someone, I mean, the
impeachment also, you know, I mean a lot of very
conservative people in his office directly accused him of a crime.
I mean, And the US Senate race is different than
(18:38):
an attorney general race, Like, I think probably more people
in Texas know who their senators are than know who
the attorney general is. I'm curious, I sort of I
hear you say that, and I believe you, and I
think you're probably right that some of these problems don't
have an effect on you know, Paxson among the Republican
primary electorate. But then I see his le sort of evaporating,
(19:01):
and I'm trying to figure out what accounts for that?
Is it a mirage? Are these things starting to land
with him? Like? What do you think about that?
Speaker 4 (19:11):
I think that it's it's where money comes into play.
And you have the Corning campaign and money that from
from the Republican I guess Republican Senate Committee that has
come in and really spent a lot millions of dollars
already backing John Cornyn and promoting Hey, John Corn's best
(19:35):
friends with Donald Trump. Those two like each other. John
corn has voted with Donald Trump ninety nine percent of
the time. Not wrong, by the way, but they're promoting
all the good things. And as Gabby mentioned, the Paxton camp,
they've done a lot of online stuff. They've done, you know,
some tweets, but they haven't gone full throated after John
(19:55):
Cornyn yet in TV ads. So that's that's where the
money war comes in the play here. And who's going
to be best, uh, you know, the best in the
best area with money, and right now that's John Cornyn.
He's able to get his message out there. And and
you know, I still go back to there are so
many voters they don't pay attention unfortunately, Uh, they don't
(20:18):
pay attention to what happens in down in Austin. They're
not always paying attention to what's happening in the legislative process,
and when it gets to some of the politics and
all that, they really don't pay attention. They care about
the votes, and they care about what they see on TV.
And uh that that right now has I think that's
what's brought up John Corn's numbers and lowered Ken Paxton's numbers.
Speaker 1 (20:43):
Yeah, Gaby, can you talk us through a little bit
more like where the money stands and what that says
about their prospects.
Speaker 5 (20:49):
Yeah, so the corn in camp, and I would say,
you know, more of the super pack that's backing him,
and that's you know, being managed by Chris los Avita, right,
Who's Who's Trump's guy. They've you know, the constellation of
pro enforces have spent I think close to thirty million
dollars on this race. And I think if you turned
on the TV right in any of the media markets
in Texas, you know you're seeing pictures of Corn in
with Trump and that that you know, ninety nine percent
(21:11):
pro Trump voting record, stuff like that. The backs and campaign,
like Tad mentioned, really has.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
Not spent money at scale, and so I think.
Speaker 5 (21:18):
You know, there they feel like they can wait, they
can afford to wait until later in the race.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
They also have a lot.
Speaker 5 (21:24):
Less money than the corn In campaign, and so I
think we'll have to see once they start spending how
that changes things. But I think a Cornin optimist would say, yeah,
he's closed the gap. All this polling shows that it's
really close, and a pessimist might say, well, you know,
even in these races, he's an even in these polls,
he's a sitting incumban, and he's not really getting over
forty percent. And as you mentioned, there's still you know,
(21:45):
about a quarter of the elector and most of these
polls that haven't decided. Uh, And you know that's one factor.
The other factor is, I think this will be interesting too,
more independent leaning voters, which primary do they end up
voting in if at all, you know, do they end
up voting in their Republican primary, credit primary or sitting out?
And so I think these are some of the things
that we still don't know yet and are going to develop.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Yeah, I mean, I think the conventional wisdom, as we
the thing we haven't talked about with Hunt is that
three candidates increases the likelihood of a runoff. And if
you are the establishment candidate, if you are the incumbent,
a runoff is not a place you want to be,
and so that alone could could could hurt Cornan in
that way. I want to circle back really quickly to
(22:26):
something that I find incredibly fascinating. Gabby. You mentioned the
NRSC right, the UH, the the Republican kind of arm campaign,
arm for for for the Senate, and they're strong support
of Cornan. I'm going to read a handful of quotes
from n r SC communications director Joanna Rodriguez that have
(22:47):
come out in recent months. What Ken Paxon has put
his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one
should have to endure what Angela Paxson has, and we
pray that she chooses to stand up for herself and
family during this time. That's one quote. A lot of
people who trust Kim Paxton get lied to, so it
isn't shocking to learn he's also cheating on his taxes
(23:10):
in personal finances. Texans deserve a senator who protects children,
not one like Paxton, who signed off on your tax
dollars funding the woke left. And Kim Paxton's incompetence is
chief law enforcement officer has allowed crime to run rampant
across the lone Star state. They also try to Wesley
(23:31):
Hunt for personal ambition for running to this race instead
of you know, thinking through. It's wild to me to
hear the NRSC, which is devoted to electing Republicans to
the US Senate, be blasting perhaps the front runner in
the Republican primary in that kind of language, you know,
(23:55):
a year before election day. It tell me a little
bit about like, what what's going on here? And are
they not worried that all these quotes are going to
come back and bite them when if we get to
a position where Ken Paxon is the nominee.
Speaker 5 (24:09):
Yeah, I mean Joanna is not shy. That's certainly part
of it. A. I think the things to understand are one, like,
these organizations like the NRSC exist to protect their own right.
I mean, their number one job is protecting their incumbents.
Number two is growing the map, right is adding seats
and the incumbent. You know, the incumbents will give them
hell if they feel like, you know, they're not getting
(24:29):
they're not getting properly helped there.
Speaker 2 (24:32):
A B.
Speaker 5 (24:33):
They feel like they've a finite amount of resources. This
is a big map. They're trying to pick up a seat,
in Georgia, they've got to defend a seat in Maine,
they've got to defend a seed in North Carolina, maybe
Alaska comes into play. You know, they don't want to
be spending money in Texas, and so they feel like
if they're going to spend, they'd rather spend in the
primary to help Corny then have to you know, keep
(24:54):
spending through the general because they do feel that Paxon
is vulnerable in a general election, you know, and people can.
Speaker 3 (25:01):
Argue about whether that's true or not.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
If I've heard some people say, you know, maybe Cornon
wins by eight and Paxson wins by four, you know,
and some people say, no, this really does feel like
it's a liability.
Speaker 3 (25:12):
Given what happened in eighteen with Senator Cruz.
Speaker 5 (25:14):
Right, But I think the nrsc's mission right now is
to a protect the incumbent and be properly adjudicate their resources.
And you know, they'll say, they'll say, any dollar we
spend in Texas is a dollar that could have been
spent in Maine, or in North Carolina, or in Georgia,
and we don't want to have to worry about this
red state.
Speaker 4 (25:30):
Right.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
But yeah, I mean I think there's obviously a real
chance that Ken Paxton becomes the nominee.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
And then they are going to have to support him
and perhaps eat their.
Speaker 1 (25:37):
Words a little bit and listen. It doesn't This is
not the most important part what we should say in
Texas the attorney general is not the top law enforcement officer.
They are the top lawyer. They have no criminal independent
criminal jurisdiction. It doesn't matter anyway. The other piece of
this that we don't yet have is the much desired
(25:57):
Trump endorsements that could sway this a lot. JAHI, where
do you see that going and how much of an
impact do you think that makes? When we do hear
from the president.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
I think Trump stays out of it unless something insane happens.
I just I think that Trump he want one. He
wants the vote of John Cornyn while John Cornyn is there,
so he doesn't want to upset that. And John Cornyn
has for the most part, been very loyal to Trump
(26:27):
while Trump's been elected and in office. Has Cornyn made
other comments while Trump's not in office, Absolutely he has.
But while in office, Trump or excuse me, Cornyn has
been a loyal soldier. Trump appreciates loyalty we all know
that we've seen that before that Trump appreciates loyalty. I
(26:47):
think he stays out of it. I don't think that
he endorses in a primary. If it goes to a runoff,
maybe maybe he would, but I don't think the politics
of it right now for the White House, I think
they look at it and go where, we don't want
to touch this because we don't want to anger either
(27:08):
side because we're going to need their vote at some point.
Speaker 1 (27:12):
Yeah, certainly, right, It's like it could sort of bring
all of this to an end pretty quickly if he
did intervene. But you're right that there's sort of not
a huge strategic benefit to there to the Trump camp
to do that.
Speaker 2 (27:26):
Yeah, should we talk about the Democrats.
Speaker 1 (27:29):
The other side of the ticket. I was just going
to say, yeah, there is another race particular.
Speaker 2 (27:33):
Yeah, you know James Talerico, Colin Allred, so far, so far,
tall Rico of course. You know a lot of like
early Beto vibes, you know, in terms of ability to
raise money, getting some.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Attention, Barack Obama shout out.
Speaker 2 (27:51):
Barack Obama's shout out, you know, excited people on social media,
all those types of things. I'm looking at this ut
Tyler pole, which you know pulls the hypothetical matchups, has
Cornan beating tall Rico by six, has Paxton beating tall
Rico by one. If you look at Colin Allred and
(28:14):
also has uh Tallerco actually beating Hunt by one, although
there's a lot of undecideds in all those numbers. If
you look at all Red, h Cornan beating all Read
by six, beating Paxton by three.
Speaker 1 (28:32):
Already beats Paxton by three. Tall Rico loses to Paxson
by one.
Speaker 2 (28:36):
Is that what you said first? And before we go
into that, go ahead, Chad, give us the uh, give
us tell us what we should be thinking about these polls,
you know, more than a year ahead of the election season.
Speaker 4 (28:53):
They're fun to talk about. They're fun. It gives us
something to talk about. But it doesn't matter I prove it.
You know, it's one of those I've seen how many
times have we seen this from the Democrats and the
the the early race that that's out there, whether it
was Beto or even calling all Red. Hey, we're excited,
(29:14):
this person has momentum. We're so far away and they're
beating Republicans. Have the numbers in Texas Republicans are going
to turn up the vote. We know that they're They're
going to show up for their guy. I think, no
matter who it is, I'm not that part honestly does
not worry me. Who gets the nomination and if tall
(29:35):
Rico or all Red is going to be able to
beat them if I were the Democrats, and they will
not listen to me, I know this, But if I
were to give advice to the Democrats, go all in
with tallar Rico. You lost with all Rid already, go
all in now with Tall Rico, save your money in
the primary, and just get ready for an all out
(29:56):
war in the general election. And I mean Tall Rico
I think is the Democrats' best bet as of right now.
Colin Alred has shown that he can't win. He can't
beat John Cornyn, He's not going to beat Ken Baxton.
Democrats kind of want that outsider, that younger voice. To me,
that's Tall Rico. He presents a different argument that's out there. Again.
(30:21):
I don't think that he can win. But if I
were the Democrats, I'd put all the money, all my
cards on Tall Rico and tell Colin Alred it's time
to bow out.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
Geby. Do you think the Republican establishment, the people working
for the campaigns agree, would they rather face already over
tall Rico.
Speaker 3 (30:40):
I think they'd rather face Jasmine Crockett.
Speaker 5 (30:44):
Because they are definitely trying to push polls that show
her head and promoting that narrative, which she's well aware of.
Speaker 3 (30:51):
But yeah, I mean I kind of yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:53):
I think from what I can tell, they feel like
they could win either way, and I certainly all the
history would back that up.
Speaker 4 (31:02):
Right.
Speaker 3 (31:04):
It helps that they've already beat all Red, and.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
You know, the attacks on all Read particularly, I think
the attacks around trans women and men's sports right were
really effective last cycle. You know, those ads ran at
scale last cycle. That's probably already in people's minds. Tallerco
is newer, right, you have to go to the business
of defining him, which they've already done for all Red.
Speaker 3 (31:23):
So yeah, I think maybe that's that's probably part of it.
But you know, Taller Reco, that's what the primers be about.
Speaker 5 (31:31):
Can he get his sort of name idea up enough
to beat someone who like Colonel Read, who most people
already know because he did run statewide.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
So jed your confidence in the Republicans suggests to me
that you don't think that the Republican primary voters should
be making a what's our best chance in November calculation? Here?
Is that? Right?
Speaker 4 (31:53):
No? I think that the Republican primary voters should vote
for who represents them and who they want to fight
for them moving forward, because and again, until we see
something that's different from the Democrats, they haven't shown that
they can come out and win statewide office. And so
(32:14):
you know, taking down a US senator, taking a US
Senate seat would be a huge monumental shift in Texas,
and I don't see that with I don't think that
with either of these candidates. And I think with Ken
Paxton and with John Cornyn, eventually the Republicans are just
going to turn out and they're going to vote in this.
So I would know, I would just tell Republican primary voters,
(32:37):
whoever you like the best, go and vote for that person.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Yeah, that's you know. I do think a lot of
the speculation about who can win, you know, at the
at the general feel so far away right now from
you know, what the average voter is thinking about. To
your point, Chad of like, how much does anyone follow
any of this? Like I don't you know. I think
the average voter is listening to the ads and going
with what they know versus some like strategic three D
(33:03):
chess game, probably a.
Speaker 2 (33:06):
Game that the Democrats would tell you often doesn't work
out very well. Right, Like, it's harder than maybe we
think to predict who actually fair will fare better in
a general election.
Speaker 1 (33:16):
Yeah, three D chess sometimes gets on top of you
a little bit. Yeah, you know, this is like a
completely separate piece of this, But Gabby, I did want
to just briefly touch on your story this week about
a much sooner congressional race that is coming up just
right around the corner. Early voting has started for Texas
(33:37):
eight Texas's eighteenth congressional district, which is, to put it lightly,
a mess of a race. We've got like a very
confusing situation on our hands. Could you just briefly sort
of summarize what's going on there and what you're watching
out for.
Speaker 5 (33:52):
Yeah, I was trying to explain this to my grandma
the other day, which was a very difficult task.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (33:57):
So people recall Texas eighteen has been without a long
term solution for a while. It's in Houston, it's had
a history of having sort of really storied black Democratic politicians.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
It had been Sheila Jackson Lee for years.
Speaker 5 (34:10):
She died in the summer of twenty twenty four, you know,
after the primary. So the Harris County Democratic Party got
together and picked the former mayor, Sylvester Turner to be
on the ballot in November.
Speaker 3 (34:22):
He won, he took.
Speaker 5 (34:23):
Office in January, and then he passed away in March.
So the seat has been open ever since. Governor Abbott
set the special election date for this November, right, so
early voting just started. And what's even more confusing is
that this election is taking place under the old lines
rights to fill out a term that was elected under
the old map, but seventy five percent of the voters
(34:44):
in the current eighteen are being moved to other districts
under the new map, So there's a lot of confusion
about who can even vote. A lot of neighborhoods, you know,
in the northern end of Harris County that are right
now in Texas eighteen that are going to be moved
to twenty nine. And candidates are really trying to make
sure that voters know, hey, you can still vote in
this special and it's going to get even messier, right,
because there's like sixteen candidates, it's you know, almost certainly
(35:07):
going to go to a runoff. That runoff will happen
in January or February, and that's going to run right
into early voting for the March primary under the new lines,
where Congressman Al Green, who right now is in the
neighboring ninth got moved into the eighteenth under the new map,
has heavily hinted he's going to end up running in
that primary. So this could end up being someone describes
(35:27):
to me as a hell of a door prize where
somebody you know has been running for months takes office
and let's say February, and then immediately have to decide
if they want to run in a primary against one
of the most well known Democrats in Houston or sort
of bow out, and then that seed could end up
having another, you know, pretty old representative. So there's just
a lot of dynamics at play here age redistricting.
Speaker 3 (35:50):
That's that's going to be a storyline for months in Houston.
Speaker 1 (35:54):
I will say I was sort of cheered by your
the detail in your story about how like the candidates
were saying like they keep confronting people or like meeting
voters who are having to confront the issue of Like
the voters are like, well, didn't the lines get redrawn?
Am I even in this district? How do I vote?
Speaker 2 (36:08):
All this?
Speaker 1 (36:08):
And it's like, well, people really know about redistricting, they
have really been paying attention. Doesn't help in this race.
I feel sorry for those candidates, but man, the word
is out about for all.
Speaker 5 (36:19):
I think a ton of awareness about redistricting from what
I can tell from the candidates, and.
Speaker 3 (36:23):
Like people very much know, Like, oh, but I don't.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
Live in eighteen anymore, And the candid's like, no, but
you still do for the purposes of this election and
probably a runoff, you know, It's Yeah, it's really confusing
for people there, especially because you know, for many of them,
they haven't had right a representative for months. They might
have been kind of tuned out of this entirely. A
lot of people don't even know that the special is
going on.
Speaker 1 (36:45):
Yeah, for all of our you know, perhaps not for
all of our I think correctly estimating how much voters
pay attention to any of this, it appears that at
least in the eighteenth Congressional District, where they are getting
sort of pulled around by the powers that be. They
at least are very very attentive to what's going on.
Speaker 2 (37:03):
We should just have like a we should record ourselves
saying like, but most voters actually don't know or care,
and we can just like have a soundboard in the
podcast and.
Speaker 1 (37:12):
Yeah, right, yeah, we should start and end everything. That's
a ceremonial. Yeah exactly, well right, I mean, that is
like such a complicated little corner of politics right now.
But obviously we'll be watching to see what happens with that,
and then the real race is on the you know,
for the the main primaries in twenty twenty six, which
(37:33):
will be March third, the day in between my birthday
and Alejandra Serrano's birthday. So a big week for the
politics team.
Speaker 2 (37:42):
Press of the voters don't care about.
Speaker 1 (37:44):
Voters don't care, that is for sure. Well, thank you
guys so much for joining us. Chad, thanks for calling
in from Lubbock, and Gabby from DC. That is it
for this week's episode of the trib Cast. You can
find us on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.
Our producers are Rob and Chris, and we will see
you next week.
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