July 29, 2025 • 41 mins
We discuss how the Republican ticket is shaping up? Can you still view the primaries as establishment v. grassroots?
Mark as Played
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
This week's episode of the Tribecast is brought to you
by the Texas Tribune Membership program. Hello and welcome to
the Tribecast for Tuesday, July twenty ninth. I'm Eleanor Klebanoff,
law and politics reporter here at the Tribune, joined this
(00:28):
week by A. Matthew Watkins stand in politics editor, Jasper Sharer.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Jasper, thanks for being here, of course, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Matthew is in luxurious, beautiful Porto ransis the place to
be in the summer, and I would make fun of it.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
But we are in the Texas capital, so not much better.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I am curious, Jasper, before we jump in. This is
your We're in the special session. You're now an editor.
It's your first session in how many years that you're not? Sorry,
I should tee that up, first session? How many years
that you are not on the floor of the capitol.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
Oh man, Well, I started covering state politics as a
reporter right around when the Dems broke quorum. I guess
you know, I might have specified broke korum the first
time if we get a second one momentarily here. But
so twenty twenty one, the first special session there was
my first.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, not the first time two thousand and three, but
the right right first time.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Also probably wasn't the first.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
The first tis time history.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
John Morritz would say, you know right, this was the
second time.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
It is a longer memory than me. Yes.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So are you missing being on the floor.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
I think so.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I mean it's been sort of slow so far, so
it's you know, I miss kind of the idea of
being around the hustle and bustle. But I still feel
I can live vicariously through through you guys being there.
So do you want to trade Maybe I'll maybe I'll
make my way down there, just to relive the glory
days a little bit.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah, we love that. Well, we're going to jump right in.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
You know. Last week we had an episode with the
chair of the Texas Democratic Party, Kendall Scudder, sort of
looking at the dems prospects for the twenty twenty six midterms.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
This week we are going.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
To look at the other side of the aisle, the
Republican's prospects. I will say we did extend an invitation
to GOP chair Abraham George, who it wasn't the right
time for him to join us, but he said he
plans to join in the future. So we will extend
that invitation and open invitation to Chairman George Yes anytime.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
So in his stead we have the Dean of.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Texas Talk Radio, Mark Davis, on the air for more
than forty years in the Dallas Fort Worth area. His
bio and I think we would agree with this, says
the foremost conservative voice locally and nationally, a morning fixture
on six sixty Am The Answer. He is also a
columnist for the Fort Worth Start Telegram, McClatchy Newspapers, Newsweek,
(02:57):
and town Hall.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Mark, thanks for joining.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Us, great pleasure. Thank you guys, appreciate being here.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Yeah, well, you know, I want to sort of start
before we jump into twenty twenty six and talk about
you know, look back in time a little bit and
talk about twenty twenty four, you know, just a gangbusters
election for Republicans in Texas nationally. I'm curious, Mark, were
you anticipating such a good year for Republicans nationally, you know,
(03:22):
with Trump at the top of the ticket. How to
sort of line up with your expectations.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
It's everything is relative. And as I'm sitting here doing
shows in this room, talking about the presidential race, talking
about national issues. Talking about Texas issues, the Texas landscape
seemed pretty baked in. Democrats have had a long and
tortured experience ever since I've been back in my native
Texas nineteen ninety four. Oh, we're going to turn it purple.
(03:50):
We're going to turn it blue. Guys, how's that working out?
And I don't know, never say never, but that's not
happening even in the near term.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Now.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Nationally it was not as cut and dry because Trump
is always the X factory. There's going to be hot
passions obviously for him. That is going to spark hot
passions against him. So I think what solidified my confidence?
I mean Trump, He's a known entity, He's Trump. I think,
(04:20):
you know the level of positivity he's going to attract,
you know, the high level of negativity that's going to
be there to meet those positive folks, those supporters on
the battlefield. So the real difference was what were the
Democrats going to do? And as things just got progressively
worse for the Democrats presidentially from the obvious even my
(04:42):
dog knew it, cognitive decline of Joe Biden, and then
they give him the hook and then forward the Kamala
Harris candidacy, without a single vote being cast for her,
without a saying I mean here, I am doing a
conservative talk to saying Democrats, I feel for you. I'm
taking calls from Democrats saying could we please have a primary?
(05:03):
Could we please have four or five people? And maybe
Kamala would prevail in that scrum or maybe not, but
at least something that resembles fair competition. That did not
serve her well. Kamala was also not served well by
her complete, near complete lack of campaign skill set. It
was one of the truly worst campaigns ever run by anyone,
(05:25):
and as that began to take shape, the Trump victory
became a lot easier to envision because while there were
a lot of things that were unknown, a lot of
things that were hidden factories yet to be played out,
one thing that was clear, and that was the Democrats
and dug themselves an enormous hole, which is part of
why Trump won.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It's such a like how quickly things evolve in politics
that Trump was the known quantity in that election, Like
when you think about twenty sixteen or everyone was like,
what the heck is happening with this guy?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
And now it's like the safe choice, the more predictable choice, the.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Familiar, the familiarity, and even it even gets weirder that
with all of his personal paccadillos, with all of his
you know, wheels off behavioral things, one of the reasons
he won is that he was the normalcy candidate that
I know. That's the kind of thing that I mean
what but by that I mean not by being a
(06:22):
conventional candidate in his own way, but through things, you know,
I feel, pardon me, things like border normalcy, which means
having one gender, normalcy, which means knowing how many there are,
a certain trade normalcy, which involves bringing the playing field
into a better level place. So even in the way
that Nixon, who is not real popular one in nineteen
(06:45):
sixty eight and seventy two, by being kind of a
normalcy candidate, even though he might not have been that popular,
a lot of voters said, well, I can think what
I think about him, but it seems like either he's
less crazy or the other people are too crazy. And
that too was part of the twenty twenty four when.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Yeah, it's an interesting comparison to that, to that Nixon
election and just sort of you know people, you know,
without condemning any of our elected officials sort of the
devil you know, versus the.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Devil you don't.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Yeah, I would say it was pretty striking to see
a fourteen point win in Texas. I mean I didn't
I don't think any of the polling, you know. If anything,
I think the one of the takeaways was just, you know,
we can only rely on polling in Texas so much
coming out of some of these recent cycles that you know,
(07:37):
not universally across the board. I think there were some
posters who got pretty close, but I don't think anyone
was fully predicting fourteen points for Trump. I think it
was eight and a half for Cruise at the end
of the day. So and that really sets the tone
in kind of a problematic way for Democrats heading into
twenty twenty six, even though folks are talking about them,
(07:59):
you know, having just sort of the national wind at
their back just by virtue of it being a Republican
in the White House midterm cycle. But on the other hand,
we're coming off really a landslide blowout two years ago.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Right, I Mean, conventional wisdom would say twenty twenty six
a midterm year. The president is you know, dealing with
some unpopularity issues passing, you know, some policies that we
will probably you know, by twenty twenty six be seeing
the impact of in one direction or another, you know,
putting aside the ongoing redistricting fight that could change things
(08:34):
on the congressional front. Mark what is sort of your
crystal ball telling you at this point for you know,
the lay of the land coming into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
For Republicans, let's talk about the sort of a midterm
map that you referred to the way it usually goes
for Republican and Democrat presidents alike, is that when when
you win the White House, the first midterm is the
pendulum swinging back the other way. And the other thing
that usually happens in a president's second term. Ask Bush,
(09:04):
ask Reagan. Everybody starts to get tired of you. It's
like a coach, you lose the locker room. But here's
the thing, and history may record that Trump losing, I know,
did he the Trump not regating the White House, not
reoccupying the White House in twenty twenty might have been
(09:26):
the absolute best thing to happen to him, because this
Trump two point, Oh imagine if he had won it
had been, first of all, you'd be gone by now
who knows what we'd have. And I take calls every
day from people who say God's timing, Mark God's timing.
I'll leave that to individuals to discern. But there's no
doubt that he was able to hit the ground running
like a freshly inaugurated first termer. And talk I mean
(09:50):
energy with a capital E, rather than the kind of
fatigue that can kick in at Bush's second term, Reagan's
second term, Obama's second term. There's something about that th
if sixth, seventh, eighth year of being president where everything
just starts to become a slog. Trump has been spared
all of that, coming back for a two point zero that,
(10:10):
like the Grover Cleveland metoreum, is non consecutive, and it
means that it's a it's a kind of a fresh
start that the usual conventional second drug president does not Yet.
So here's how this goes to the midterm. The fatigue
factor might not be so large, and Trump may be
I mean, listen, these first six months have been exhausting.
I mean for critics and fans alike, just keeping track.
(10:31):
You know, the usual saying is, you know, are you.
Are you tired of the winning yet? You know, and
it hasn't all been winning, and some of it's been difficult,
and there are critics to be found around every corner.
But it may be that that pure results and a
kind of an eye opening change in the kind of
voters that Trump is attracting, poaching away some of the
(10:53):
working class, poaching away. Listen, that implies poaching, implies theft,
like you're not entitled. Increasing numbers young voters, increasing numbers
of minority voters. If this continues, you can't help but
feel pretty good about Republicans and the midterms. But then
the lesson of all life kicks in, and that is,
don't ever get comfortable. Also, the midterms are forever. Primaries
(11:14):
in Texas in March November of next year is like
on Carl Sagan's cosmic calendar. It's it's the deep deep distance.
So the only thing is certain in life has change.
Pendulums can swing in a variety of ways. But you
have to say, if the elections were held right now,
they'd go pretty well for Republicans. But they're not held
right now.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Right and if you think about everything that's happened in
the last six months, you know, and then how long
we have until the midterms. It's like that could go dependulent,
could swing back and forth, and just how quickly think
Trump moves, you know, through everything. It could really go
in a lot of directions between now and then.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
Right yeah, I mean you think back to that crazy
period in July a year ago where you get an
assassination attempt to change in who the you know, presumed
Democratic nominee is going to be at the top of
the ticket, like you know, let alone a year and
a half.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
These things can change, you know, on a on a dime.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
And I think you know, there's also the conversation about
who ends up being the nominee for for Republicans, I guess,
you know, the various nominees, not just for the US
Senate race that everyone's talking about these days. But you know,
I think that could you know, that's another thing that
has to play out before we have any sense of
(12:25):
what November a year and a half from now, will
look like.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Right right.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
I will share a fun fact, which is that you
mentioned Grover Cleveland, the only other non consecutive president I
you might know this. My cat is named after Grover Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
And God knows that.
Speaker 5 (12:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
And I actually adopted him.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
The reason he's named after a president at all is
that I adopted him on the eve of the twenty
sixteen election. I was living in rural Pennsylvania, was covering
the election quite a great I was out at Trump
rallies all the time. I was out in Scranton with
Hillary and out with you know, Trump. And and I
adopted him, you know, maybe like right around Halloween, so
right before and then I thought I'd name him the
(13:02):
second most catlike name of a president, just Grover, the
first being.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Millard Garfield.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
I'm gonna I'm gonna go Millard Millard.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I approve that is good.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
And now it's funny because we I did not realize
that that was the election, you know, of course, you
know where at that time, I didn't know who would win.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
But I also didn't know.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
That he would go on to be the next very prescient,
non consecutive president. What did you say, God's timing there, you.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
Go, It works in a number of ways.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Yeah, Well, detail real quick.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
On the notion of things that could change. Because you're
sitting there, we all agree it is July about to
the August the primaries are still a good way down
the road in November, seems to be on the district rise.
But if you are a Democrat and you're and your thinking,
and pardon the way this sounds, you're looking for something
to go wrong, as a Republicans do. When Democrats something
wrong that we could weaponize, that we could take advantage
(14:02):
of that we can turn to our advantage. Look at
what they would be there really would be either the economy,
the border, the world and the world go crazy. I mean,
if we get a Russia Ukraine East deal, if we
get some end to Israel and Ammas where they can
actually be defeated, we can have actual peace in the
(14:22):
Middle East. On the economy, inflation seems pretty under control
right now. The tariffs that everybody thought we'd be, you know,
in our front yard eating our neighbor's liver because the
terriffs were going to destroy us and send us into
fourteen recessions and sixteen depressions, it simply has not happened.
The things that in the border seems silly me secure,
(14:43):
that's what's the thing that's going to go wrong. What
I guess, the economy always can, the world always can.
But boy, It's one wonders where the bottom drops at
what we would need to have happen that would suddenly
be such a chink in Trump's armor, such an enormous
hole for him to dig out of. Again, anything's possible,
(15:06):
But that's part of my confidence is high because the
things he actually ran on are things that actually for
the moment, seem to be working well.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
And I think, and we'll talk about this with some
Texas candidates as well, like they're certainly in Texas a
sense of like it would have to be significantly wrong,
you know, even tech for Texas Republicans particularly to turn
on President Trump. But you know, there are certain candidates
in Texas who sometime seem a little impervious and to
your question, know what could go wrong? What could go
(15:34):
so wrong that it would change the political calculus or
the common wisdom. Let's take a quick break for a
sponsor message, and then we'll get into some of.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
These Texas specific races.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Today's episode is supported by members of the Texas Tribune.
Texas needs trusted journalism. Help sustain fact based reporting with
your donation. Become a member of the Texas Tribune today
at Texastribune dot org. Slash donate Texas Tribune dot org
slash donate. Well, you know, Mark, obviously, when I talk
(16:07):
about sort of teflon candidates, let's talk about the Cornyn
Paxton race for US Senate. We you know, I know
you've talked to John Cornyn plenty of times in your career.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
I'm you know, our long time.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
US senator facing the toughest primary of his career. What
are you sort of reading in the tea leaves there
and or by Tilei's I mean very clear polling that
he is falling behind.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
He Gosh, this is we could do five episodes on
this alone. Cornan has been a fixture for a really
long time. Conservative callers have been calling me for a
very long time talking about how dissatisfying they are with Cornyn.
Surely this time we're going to primary him. Surely, this
(16:55):
time there's going to be a more bold conservative. And
this is before the ascendants. Yere Trump and it simply
never ever happened. Was it Steve Stockman who came within
forty of him in twenty fourteen or so, That's as
close as anybody's gotten. He's been untouchable. Now, nobody has
(17:16):
been running against him named Ken Paxton. So let's go chronologically.
If we're talking a few months ago, the Attorney General
is someone who has taken some slings and arrows, been
through some controversies, and emerged virtually unscathed. You could not
find somebody who is a staunch Packston supporter who said,
(17:39):
some of this tax stuff, I'm out, some of this
courtroom stuff, I'm out. Even some of the personal stuff,
I'm out. You could not find that. But that was
very three months ago. Speaking of change, you could say
things have changed. So now with Angela having filed for divorce,
and with the corn And team clearly willing to come
(17:59):
out with some I mean brutal as coming after the
well brutal and accurate. That's what makes them so brutal
about the personal stuff. The big X factor here, the
big variable is how much will that hurt? Can it
can't not hurt him? If it's only one or two
percent of people who go, dude, I love you, but
(18:19):
I'm out, then of course he's still viable. Some internal polling,
which is almost always useless when Kennedi's go, oh, I've
got my own polling, Sure you do. They tell you
what you want to hear. He had like a twenty
point lead on Corny, and I think the ut Tyler
people came out some weeks ago and showed it as
roughly a ten point lead, but that was before all
(18:40):
of this. I think it'd be a good season for
a little bit of polling, like right now, to see
if it were more like eight or nine, or more
like one or two, or if the leads evaporated completely.
I don't believe it had as as this whole, messy, unfortunate,
sad story played out. I believe you mean, the least
scientific thing in the world is talk show calls and Twitter.
(19:01):
But they're interesting, they're anecdotal. You find out what a
smattering of people think. And I said, listen, if you
have been a strong Packston supporter, but this is just
a bridge too far. I had always said. One of
the things I always said is if Angela forgives him,
then who are we to continue? Who is anybody to
continue to bog down in the personal stuff? Well, Ken
(19:23):
can't use that anymore, his supporters can't use that anymore.
So my goal was to find out how much it mattered.
And in a few days of calls and a few
days of Twitter, polls for whatever they're worth. It just
it looked like almost nothing. Now I know that it's
not nothing. There has to be a voter defined by
general supportive Paxton, even a strong supportive Paxton. But this
(19:47):
is just too much. My friends at Texas Values, Jonathan
Sign's wonderful group, they've been aligned with Paxton on issue
after issue after issue after issue. But one of the
things that means a lot to them at Texas Values,
hence the name, is the sanctity of marriage. And so
they pulled their endorsement. And that's not like they've endorsed
Corn in or they don't want Ken to win, but
they just cannot have their endorsement there in their literature
(20:11):
for him. That can't be your best day on the
campaign trail. But if it is just a small bit
of damage, which it may be, I'll never forget one
of the text We have a text line. We got calls.
There too many ways to get hold of me these days.
But somebody wrote me and said, Mark, there's no amount
of Paxton misbehavior that makes John corn unacceptable. And now
(20:34):
this is a pretty maga based, grassroots conservative thing to say.
But if that's prevalent, of course, Paxton remains viable now.
Is this me predicting that he will win. Absolutely not,
because I think even that ten point lead is phony.
This will be a close race, It will be hard fought,
(20:54):
and the driving factor will be who offers himself up
as the most reliable Trump ally in the remainder of
this Trump term. Paxton's credentials are absolutely rock star quality
on that, but the person, the personal stuff may be
a bit of a drag on that. For Cornan, around
(21:15):
whom there has been interest doubt. I don't think Cornan
likes guns as much as he wants you to think
he does. He certainly didn't. He certainly did not like
Trump as much as he now seems to like him.
I mean, there is zero distance Cornyan is Trump. Ever
since Trump won, it has been a genius bit of positioning.
(21:36):
All the ads show Cornyan and Trump. Cornyan loves Trump.
Trump loves Cornyn. He's one of the most valuable allies
he has in the in the Senate. Quick thing, and
I'll shut up. I'm sorry, I don't. I don't know
if they'll be an endorsement. Would would would Trump endorse Paxton?
It looked for a while, you know, six months ago. Yeah, Well,
(21:57):
sure they've been friends forever, but would would he want
to issue that kind of a slap to a sitting
senator who's very important to him now? And if Trump
endorses Cornyn, WHOA, there's a large part of the base
that will go into open revolt. So that seems to
me like a race where Trump is able to say, Ken,
I've loved him forever, good friend, Cornyn, valuable, ally important guy,
(22:18):
I love him and just kind of stay out of
it and let voters have their say. And what will
that say be. I have no idea. It will be
a measure of how much rockstar power Action is able
to maintain, and I think it's going to be considerable
versus how good a job Cornyn will do of convincing
voters that he will absolutely be a Trump ballet. And
(22:39):
he's done it, quite frankly, a wonderful job of doing that.
So that's where it lays. I think it's a close
race and one of those wonderful things that are impossible
to call right now.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I think what you were saying
there about the you know, the voters who have that
view that you know, whatever Paxson's behavior is you know,
it's it's irrelevant in assessing whether Cornyn, you know, whether
they'll ever support Cornan. I think that's kind of the
that encapsulates the challenge that Cornan is facing right now.
And I guess it also gets to the other point
(23:09):
about you know, electability and kind of the argument that
you know, I think this could potentially play into Trump's
decision about whether to get involved.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
You know, he wants to maintain the Senate.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
There's sort of this view out there that you know,
you know, maybe Paxton still still wins, but the National
Republicans have to put their resources more so in Texas
than they would like, and that takes away from you know,
North Carolina, other states. I mean, I guess I'm curious
Mark if you have any thoughts on the electability question
(23:43):
and sort of you know, Ken Paxton. I think you
can look at any data point you want to sort
of justify your view. I mean, he was, you know,
he came within striking distance of losing in twenty eighteen,
but on the other hand, twenty twenty two, he wins
by a comfortable, I think ten point margin. So given
all the kind of the data points swirling around and
(24:04):
what you've heard. I mean, do you feel like Paxton
presents an electability problem for Republicans if he's the nominee
or not?
Speaker 5 (24:14):
Not as much of one as the Corn team would
have you believe. So, so, what does Corn bring to
the table a track record of being thoroughly palatable to
a sufficient number of Republicans to win comfortably ever since
he's been running. Who doesn't want that? There are people
who want to say that if Paxton is the nominee
(24:36):
that he will be a lot more vulnerable. I don't
know that that's true. Is it mathematically? Do the data
points suggest that cornin First of all, either one of
these guys beats Colin all read period paragraph, end of story.
There's zero chance of a Democrat winning. To see, the
question is how big will the Republican margin be now?
(24:58):
And listen, all those of us in conservative land we
still remember and are still stung and frightened by how
freakishly close Beto came to Ted Cruz in twenty eighteen.
I mean, how in the world did that even happen?
And it makes us think you never can tell when
it might happen again. Colin all Read, ain't betto? Is
what comforts me at night. But here's how this comes.
(25:20):
With the data points and the notion of how either
of them might go, it is possible, in fact probable,
that Cornyn would win by a slightly larger margin than
Paxton would. But since if I'm right that there's no
chance of a democratic victory, go with whomever you like.
It's not one of those situations where well, we like
(25:40):
this Republican but he might lose. That's just simply not
the case. Here's here are the variables. No matter, this
is going to be one of the ugliest, most expensive, messy,
terrible primaries in the history of the stick. Great business
for me and the talk show, been great business for you,
all those of us who are in punditry and analysis.
(26:01):
You know, the gods will be smiling, but there'll be
so much blood on the walls by the time they're done.
And whoever loses, they're going to be a lot of
people who are really upset the people who voted for
If Paxton wins, the people who voted for Cornyn are
going to have to be wheedled and cajoled and attracted
to come over and vote for Paxton. Using the logic
(26:23):
we can't have a Democrat win, remember betto, We can't
have that happen again. And I think that would be
largely successful if Cornin fends off the Paxton challenge. Look
Out the Paxton people who didn't like Cornan before and
are really going to be bitter about him now are
going to have to get that same appeal message like, Okay,
the primary is over. It was rough, it was nasty,
(26:47):
but now we got to gather together as Republicans do
what we're supposed to do, and that's beat Democrats. And
so you've got to come over and find a way
to hold your nose if you view it as holding
your nose and support John Cornyn anyway, that I believe
is a harder sell, which is why Cornyn would probably
if I'm just packing crazy predictive numbers, I think Cornyan
(27:08):
wins by eight and packs and wins by four. But again,
that's at the electron right now. If something if Cornyan's
support for Trump is somehow drawn into doubt, if the
if the personal stuff starts to take hold with Ken
in a way that it's not doing right now, then
(27:28):
either of those figures is shiftable. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
I mean, I just feel like We've heard this argument
a lot from DEM's right of you know, I mean
that was almost the argument that like George P. Bush
and if Husman we're making, which is, you know, we
can't put him up because he'll lose to a Democrat.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
Obviously he won handily, so it does.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Again, a lot can change, but it's sort of like
with President Trump with Pax, a lot would have to
change if nothing has sort of penetrated his base. Yet,
let's turn briefly to the who the heir apparent to
the Attorney General's office. We're gonna have our first open
GOP primary for Attorney General in a decade, the first
(28:10):
without you know, packs the specter of Paxton hanging over it.
So well, let me say this, I think the specter
of Paxton is hanging over this race pretty effectively. But yes,
without your yeah, without the embodiment of Paxton in the race.
So you know, we've talked about this on the podcast before,
but the field for the GOP looks pretty set with
(28:34):
you know, Senator Mays Middleton, who is self funding ten
million dollars in his campaign so far, State Senator Joan
Huffman sort of a little bit more of the establishment,
Houston base and Aaron Wrights, who is former assistant Attorney
General to Ken Paxton, former DOJ attorney, getting a lot
of money nowhere near ten million dollars, but really trying
(28:58):
to carve out his lane as the Paxton air apparent
mark just to begin with, like what you know in
terms of your listeners and people you're talking to? Is
there awareness about this campaign? Is there awareness about these candidates?
What's the name recognition issue?
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Here? As as state senators, Joan Huffman and May's Middleton
start out with an advantage because no one knows who
Aaron Rights is, or they or they didn't until a
few weeks to you they know now if they pay
some attention to social media and they've been watching some
of his media appearances, that they take a look at
Ken's endorsement of him, which is not a small thing.
(29:35):
The way this one shakes out right now is is
Joan Huffman is going to get a lot of the
GOP establishment Ava Guzman style vote. May's Middleton is a
better conservative than Joan Huffman is. But is he is
he Paxton friendly enough? Is he does he kind of
maga grassroots enough? Not that that's gonna not the best
(29:57):
ninety percent of Texas Republican voters. I mean, if it
were a Cornon wouldn't have been so unbeatable for low
these many years. But with Aaron Wrights around, I've spoken
to this gentleman a couple of times, and he has
like no fear. He's just jumping in there and saying
and being very vocal about the very Pacstonian kinds of
(30:19):
things that he's going to do. He was on I
think a station in Austin recently. I just to clip
the other day. I'm coming after these blue cities. They're
not going to be able to do these guys. I mean,
it sounded like the absolute linear continuation of the Paxton
style of being Attorney General. I don't know that May's
Middleton is ever going to say that that I'm going
(30:40):
to do everything Paxton did, at least in office. I
know that Johan Hubban's not going to say anything like that.
So the variable will be how much do Texas voters
how much do Republican first in the primary. Of course,
how much do Texas Republican voters want an absolute continuation
of packs to style policies. There's a lot of evidence
(31:03):
that that's exactly what the Republican flavor is going to be.
But for fundraising familiarity, name recognition, both May's Middleton and
Johan Huffman have more. So Aaron Rights has all the
all the right ingredients. He is he certainly has you know,
the right talking points, but still an upill climb.
Speaker 2 (31:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
I think it also strikes me as kind of a
the ultimate test of whether voters still care about you know,
experience and whether you know, kind of that as a
campaign pitch. You look at Aaron Wrights kind of pitching
himself as the you know, he was the offensive coordinator
under Paxton, if you like what Packson was doing suing
the Biden administration. I was at the center of that.
(31:47):
Joan Huffman kind of making a similar but different experience
based argument talking about her you know, time as a
judge and prosecutor, you know, overseeing a bunch of important
committees in the Senate. And you know, Middleton obviously has
that experience in the Senate as well, but he doesn't
have that type of you know, Aaron Wright's style legal credentials,
(32:10):
just being sort of enmeshed in this conservative legal movement.
But he does have ten million dollars. So I think
it's it's kind of the ultimate test of whether you
know the voters care enough about experience to overcome just
a seemingly on its face insurmountable money advantage.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
I mean, I'm going to make an observation about experience.
It has never mattered less, and I don't in Republican
Land particularly, and the evidence of it is there every day.
There's a guy who ran for president who had no
political experience and got more passion than anybody since Reagan.
His name is Donald Trump. I mean, obviously experience meant
(32:49):
something for two point zero because he had been president,
which is why two point zero is even better than
one point zero. He knows Washington now. But the Senator Cornyn,
when I talked to him, always it talks about you know,
and I say, listen, you and Ken, it seems like
you're going to if you indeed have become the Trump
acolyte that you offer yourself to be. Isn't it pretty
(33:09):
true that you and Ken will have just about the
same voting record. I mean, what's really going to be
the difference between what kind of cenator you will be
and the corn and response is very, very often. I
have all this experience, experience, experience, experience. I won't say
it doesn't matter. Oly matter. Experience is a good thing
to have. But what Republican voters in particular looking for
is how's your fight? How much will you fight? What
(33:32):
kind of energy do you bring? Do you draw? Do
you have the right enemies? I mean, do you have
your eye focused on battles against wotness, battles against profligate spending,
battles against you know, unconstitutional governance. If you've got your
eyes clear about that. Not only do we not care
(33:53):
that you don't have experience, we love that you've come
from the private sector because I think there's a kind
of what we've had it up to our eyeball with
career politician little bitner for twenty five years. Big deal.
Give me somebody with a with a fresh eye, a
fresh take on things. So I'll just say that experience
is never a bad thing to have. But I don't
know when it's ever been less important.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
An experience is all relative, right, I mean, you've got
I think the AGS race is a great example of this.
You've got Aaron Wright sort of portraying himself as the
political outsider and also the one experienced, you know, as
the offensive coordinator that sort of backs someone like Senator
Middleton into a corner of you know, well, his experience
is in you know, state legislating, which is sort of
(34:37):
almost the worst of both in the eyes.
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Of the republicability.
Speaker 5 (34:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Yeah, but I will say, you know, Center Middleton has
gotten a ton of support from other members of the legislature,
many of whom are grassroots Republicans.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
So you know, I think there's sort.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Of the the social media, the attacking in TV ads,
TV hits, radio hits like that makes a huge difference
in terms of name recognition. And then there's sort of
the the underground world in which a lot of politics
happens that's less obvious to the to the naked eye.
I think where I do think Center Middleton is pretty
(35:13):
experienced in working in those circles or the GOP donor yeah. Absolutely, Yeah,
you know, we could obviously get into a lot of
other races, but we will sort of leave it there.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
I mean, Mark, just big picture, you.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Know, what are you what sort of your outlook for Republicans,
you know, between now and when we when we get
up to that primary and then ultimately general, I mean,
you know, what are the variables you're keeping an eye on.
Speaker 5 (35:40):
If if recent history is a prologue and once things
have been going in a certain way, only two things
can happen. They can continue in that certain way, or
the pendulum can start to swing back. Paxton remains a
rock star in terms of what he has done. The
personal stuff is a big We'll see whether it's a
Chinese water torture. If he can say but death one
(36:01):
thousand cuts, let's go with that over time. If it
starts to wear him down, I don't know. I don't
think that it will. What he has done is sufficiently
impactful that I think it's the kind of thing that
gives Aaron Wright a chance in a battle where he
would ordinarily have a big struggle against Tufman in Middleton.
That's going to be an interesting three way race. Dan
(36:21):
Patrick remains just a force of nature. He is ageless.
He's out there even things that are that are not
one hundred percent popular in the conservative base, the THC band.
He will not let go of that THC band. I
happen to think he's correct about that. But I took
a lot of calls and we remark I love Dan Patrick,
but he's wrong on the THC thing. He doesn't care,
he thinks it's right. He's going for it. Various the
(36:44):
ways in which he has piloted the Senate in a
way that gives the Texas Senate a better sort of
legislative image than the Messy House does. Coming off the
difficult era, Dade feeling, although the Dustin Burroughs era seems
to have gone much much much better, remains a power
and to finish at the top there with Governor Rabbit.
It is not the same Greg Abbott as four or
(37:06):
six or eight years ago. I was not to make
everything a measure of the calls I take or whatever.
But it's the people I talked to it it's the
studies of human nature that I get from doing this
show every day. There was conservative frustration about Abbott to
the extent that when Don Haffins and Alan West ran
against him, I took all kinds of calls from people
(37:27):
who said, hey, Mark Abbot's Abbot's going down.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Man.
Speaker 5 (37:29):
It's either Alan West or Don Hoffines. And by the way,
I love Allan West, I love Don Hopkins. Hupfinds ride
a great campaign. Hop Fines would say something about property taxes,
Abbott would say it the next day. Huff Finds made
Abbott a better candidate four years ago. But I told listeners,
to their chagrin, there was no way Abbott was getting beat.
There was no way in the world either of these
(37:50):
primary challenges would come close to him. Because what you've
got to do, it's the Mark Davis rule of primaries.
The only way you're going to win. It doesn't matter
how awesome you are, how much we love you. You've
got to create a desire to fire the incumbent. That's
what Paxton's got to do. He's got to create it. It
doesn't matter how awesome Paxston is or the great things
he's done in the rock star status he has. I mean,
(38:10):
it's lovely. That's why he's going to come close. But
he will only win if he creates a palpable desire
on the part of a state that's loved him for
two decades to fire John Cornyn. If he can do that,
he wins. If he can't, then he doesn't. The point
being here is that Abbot has read the political room
so well and read and has seen the trumpification of
(38:33):
text at the further trumpification of Texas that I don't
hear a peep of conservative complaint about Abbott anymore at all,
which would seem to indicate, by a long winded way
of saying, that the deeper red status of Texas either
continues or stays where it is, the notion of the
pendulum swinging back and maybe a hint of purple working
(38:56):
toward blue. Maybe Colin already has a chance and throw
it redistricting, which we do at a whole week there
may not simply be you know, Martin Beezy and Julie
Johnson may not be around anymore. But let's just say
that it's trending well for Texas as a red state.
Speaker 1 (39:13):
And you want to talk about a war chest, I mean,
Governor Abbot just was it twenty million dollars in a
week and eighty six million dollars total?
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Right, yeah, And that's I mean, that's a big part
of the conversation with twenty twenty six too, just thinking
about back to twenty eighteen when you know, as we
were discussing, things got really close, but we had Governor
Abbott kind of lifting all boats on the Republican side.
Further down the ballot with his blowout when that same year,
(39:41):
and you know, to your point, Mark, I think with
Abbot sort of reading the conservative tea leaves and you know,
shoring up his right flank. I mean you just look
at the agenda that he's rolled out for this special session.
I mean it's kind of a grab bag of anything
you could you could want that hasn't yet been accomplished.
So I think he's a pretty bulletproof heading into March.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Ran if he's got all that money and no primary challenger,
it's a lot to a lot of wealth to spread.
Speaker 5 (40:08):
Around an enviable place to be.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Absolutely, Our colleague alle Hundro Serrana, when we saw that number,
said imagine what the Texas Tribune could do with that money?
Speaker 3 (40:18):
And I said, are you proposingly Rob craig donation?
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Time for that donation, bitch.
Speaker 3 (40:23):
Yes exactly.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
I'm sure Dave Carney's jumping jumping to send that over
to us. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Yeah, I think we're top of the list for right now.
Speaker 1 (40:31):
Yes, well, you know we will have to leave it there,
but thank you so much for joining us, Mark, this
was a fantastic conversation. Yeah, before we head out, we
will just say thank you to this week's sponsor, members
of the Texas Tribune, which could be any of you
who are listening. Become a member of the Texas Tribune
today at Texas Tribune dot org slash donate. That is
(40:55):
this week's episode of the Trip Cast, Jasper, Thank you
for joining us.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
Our producers are are Chris and Rob. You can get
this podcast anywhere you get podcasts or on YouTube dot
com and we'll see you next week.
This week's episode of the Tribecast is brought to you
by the Texas Tribune Membership program. Hello and welcome to
the Tribecast for Tuesday, July twenty ninth. I'm Eleanor Klebanoff,
law and politics reporter here at the Tribune, joined this
(00:28):
week by A. Matthew Watkins stand in politics editor, Jasper Sharer.
Speaker 2 (00:33):
Jasper, thanks for being here, of course, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
Matthew is in luxurious, beautiful Porto ransis the place to
be in the summer, and I would make fun of it.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
But we are in the Texas capital, so not much better.
Speaker 1 (00:51):
I am curious, Jasper, before we jump in. This is
your We're in the special session. You're now an editor.
It's your first session in how many years that you're not? Sorry,
I should tee that up, first session? How many years
that you are not on the floor of the capitol.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
Oh man, Well, I started covering state politics as a
reporter right around when the Dems broke quorum. I guess
you know, I might have specified broke korum the first
time if we get a second one momentarily here. But
so twenty twenty one, the first special session there was
my first.
Speaker 1 (01:23):
Yeah, not the first time two thousand and three, but
the right right first time.
Speaker 3 (01:27):
Also probably wasn't the first.
Speaker 2 (01:28):
The first tis time history.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
John Morritz would say, you know right, this was the
second time.
Speaker 2 (01:33):
It is a longer memory than me. Yes.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
So are you missing being on the floor.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
I think so.
Speaker 4 (01:38):
I mean it's been sort of slow so far, so
it's you know, I miss kind of the idea of
being around the hustle and bustle. But I still feel
I can live vicariously through through you guys being there.
So do you want to trade Maybe I'll maybe I'll
make my way down there, just to relive the glory
days a little bit.
Speaker 3 (01:56):
Yeah, we love that. Well, we're going to jump right in.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
You know. Last week we had an episode with the
chair of the Texas Democratic Party, Kendall Scudder, sort of
looking at the dems prospects for the twenty twenty six midterms.
Speaker 3 (02:09):
This week we are going.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
To look at the other side of the aisle, the
Republican's prospects. I will say we did extend an invitation
to GOP chair Abraham George, who it wasn't the right
time for him to join us, but he said he
plans to join in the future. So we will extend
that invitation and open invitation to Chairman George Yes anytime.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
So in his stead we have the Dean of.
Speaker 1 (02:33):
Texas Talk Radio, Mark Davis, on the air for more
than forty years in the Dallas Fort Worth area. His
bio and I think we would agree with this, says
the foremost conservative voice locally and nationally, a morning fixture
on six sixty Am The Answer. He is also a
columnist for the Fort Worth Start Telegram, McClatchy Newspapers, Newsweek,
(02:57):
and town Hall.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Mark, thanks for joining.
Speaker 5 (02:58):
Us, great pleasure. Thank you guys, appreciate being here.
Speaker 1 (03:02):
Yeah, well, you know, I want to sort of start
before we jump into twenty twenty six and talk about
you know, look back in time a little bit and
talk about twenty twenty four, you know, just a gangbusters
election for Republicans in Texas nationally. I'm curious, Mark, were
you anticipating such a good year for Republicans nationally, you know,
(03:22):
with Trump at the top of the ticket. How to
sort of line up with your expectations.
Speaker 5 (03:27):
It's everything is relative. And as I'm sitting here doing
shows in this room, talking about the presidential race, talking
about national issues. Talking about Texas issues, the Texas landscape
seemed pretty baked in. Democrats have had a long and
tortured experience ever since I've been back in my native
Texas nineteen ninety four. Oh, we're going to turn it purple.
(03:50):
We're going to turn it blue. Guys, how's that working out?
And I don't know, never say never, but that's not
happening even in the near term.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Now.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Nationally it was not as cut and dry because Trump
is always the X factory. There's going to be hot
passions obviously for him. That is going to spark hot
passions against him. So I think what solidified my confidence?
I mean Trump, He's a known entity, He's Trump. I think,
(04:20):
you know the level of positivity he's going to attract,
you know, the high level of negativity that's going to
be there to meet those positive folks, those supporters on
the battlefield. So the real difference was what were the
Democrats going to do? And as things just got progressively
worse for the Democrats presidentially from the obvious even my
(04:42):
dog knew it, cognitive decline of Joe Biden, and then
they give him the hook and then forward the Kamala
Harris candidacy, without a single vote being cast for her,
without a saying I mean here, I am doing a
conservative talk to saying Democrats, I feel for you. I'm
taking calls from Democrats saying could we please have a primary?
(05:03):
Could we please have four or five people? And maybe
Kamala would prevail in that scrum or maybe not, but
at least something that resembles fair competition. That did not
serve her well. Kamala was also not served well by
her complete, near complete lack of campaign skill set. It
was one of the truly worst campaigns ever run by anyone,
(05:25):
and as that began to take shape, the Trump victory
became a lot easier to envision because while there were
a lot of things that were unknown, a lot of
things that were hidden factories yet to be played out,
one thing that was clear, and that was the Democrats
and dug themselves an enormous hole, which is part of
why Trump won.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
It's such a like how quickly things evolve in politics
that Trump was the known quantity in that election, Like
when you think about twenty sixteen or everyone was like,
what the heck is happening with this guy?
Speaker 3 (05:56):
And now it's like the safe choice, the more predictable choice, the.
Speaker 5 (06:00):
Familiar, the familiarity, and even it even gets weirder that
with all of his personal paccadillos, with all of his
you know, wheels off behavioral things, one of the reasons
he won is that he was the normalcy candidate that
I know. That's the kind of thing that I mean
what but by that I mean not by being a
(06:22):
conventional candidate in his own way, but through things, you know,
I feel, pardon me, things like border normalcy, which means
having one gender, normalcy, which means knowing how many there are,
a certain trade normalcy, which involves bringing the playing field
into a better level place. So even in the way
that Nixon, who is not real popular one in nineteen
(06:45):
sixty eight and seventy two, by being kind of a
normalcy candidate, even though he might not have been that popular,
a lot of voters said, well, I can think what
I think about him, but it seems like either he's
less crazy or the other people are too crazy. And
that too was part of the twenty twenty four when.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
Yeah, it's an interesting comparison to that, to that Nixon
election and just sort of you know people, you know,
without condemning any of our elected officials sort of the
devil you know, versus the.
Speaker 3 (07:14):
Devil you don't.
Speaker 4 (07:16):
Yeah, I would say it was pretty striking to see
a fourteen point win in Texas. I mean I didn't
I don't think any of the polling, you know. If anything,
I think the one of the takeaways was just, you know,
we can only rely on polling in Texas so much
coming out of some of these recent cycles that you know,
(07:37):
not universally across the board. I think there were some
posters who got pretty close, but I don't think anyone
was fully predicting fourteen points for Trump. I think it
was eight and a half for Cruise at the end
of the day. So and that really sets the tone
in kind of a problematic way for Democrats heading into
twenty twenty six, even though folks are talking about them,
(07:59):
you know, having just sort of the national wind at
their back just by virtue of it being a Republican
in the White House midterm cycle. But on the other hand,
we're coming off really a landslide blowout two years ago.
Speaker 1 (08:13):
Right, I Mean, conventional wisdom would say twenty twenty six
a midterm year. The president is you know, dealing with
some unpopularity issues passing, you know, some policies that we
will probably you know, by twenty twenty six be seeing
the impact of in one direction or another, you know,
putting aside the ongoing redistricting fight that could change things
(08:34):
on the congressional front. Mark what is sort of your
crystal ball telling you at this point for you know,
the lay of the land coming into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 5 (08:42):
For Republicans, let's talk about the sort of a midterm
map that you referred to the way it usually goes
for Republican and Democrat presidents alike, is that when when
you win the White House, the first midterm is the
pendulum swinging back the other way. And the other thing
that usually happens in a president's second term. Ask Bush,
(09:04):
ask Reagan. Everybody starts to get tired of you. It's
like a coach, you lose the locker room. But here's
the thing, and history may record that Trump losing, I know,
did he the Trump not regating the White House, not
reoccupying the White House in twenty twenty might have been
(09:26):
the absolute best thing to happen to him, because this
Trump two point, Oh imagine if he had won it
had been, first of all, you'd be gone by now
who knows what we'd have. And I take calls every
day from people who say God's timing, Mark God's timing.
I'll leave that to individuals to discern. But there's no
doubt that he was able to hit the ground running
like a freshly inaugurated first termer. And talk I mean
(09:50):
energy with a capital E, rather than the kind of
fatigue that can kick in at Bush's second term, Reagan's
second term, Obama's second term. There's something about that th
if sixth, seventh, eighth year of being president where everything
just starts to become a slog. Trump has been spared
all of that, coming back for a two point zero that,
(10:10):
like the Grover Cleveland metoreum, is non consecutive, and it
means that it's a it's a kind of a fresh
start that the usual conventional second drug president does not Yet.
So here's how this goes to the midterm. The fatigue
factor might not be so large, and Trump may be
I mean, listen, these first six months have been exhausting.
I mean for critics and fans alike, just keeping track.
(10:31):
You know, the usual saying is, you know, are you.
Are you tired of the winning yet? You know, and
it hasn't all been winning, and some of it's been difficult,
and there are critics to be found around every corner.
But it may be that that pure results and a
kind of an eye opening change in the kind of
voters that Trump is attracting, poaching away some of the
(10:53):
working class, poaching away. Listen, that implies poaching, implies theft,
like you're not entitled. Increasing numbers young voters, increasing numbers
of minority voters. If this continues, you can't help but
feel pretty good about Republicans and the midterms. But then
the lesson of all life kicks in, and that is,
don't ever get comfortable. Also, the midterms are forever. Primaries
(11:14):
in Texas in March November of next year is like
on Carl Sagan's cosmic calendar. It's it's the deep deep distance.
So the only thing is certain in life has change.
Pendulums can swing in a variety of ways. But you
have to say, if the elections were held right now,
they'd go pretty well for Republicans. But they're not held
right now.
Speaker 1 (11:32):
Right and if you think about everything that's happened in
the last six months, you know, and then how long
we have until the midterms. It's like that could go dependulent,
could swing back and forth, and just how quickly think
Trump moves, you know, through everything. It could really go
in a lot of directions between now and then.
Speaker 4 (11:48):
Right yeah, I mean you think back to that crazy
period in July a year ago where you get an
assassination attempt to change in who the you know, presumed
Democratic nominee is going to be at the top of
the ticket, like you know, let alone a year and
a half.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
These things can change, you know, on a on a dime.
Speaker 4 (12:04):
And I think you know, there's also the conversation about
who ends up being the nominee for for Republicans, I guess,
you know, the various nominees, not just for the US
Senate race that everyone's talking about these days. But you know,
I think that could you know, that's another thing that
has to play out before we have any sense of
(12:25):
what November a year and a half from now, will
look like.
Speaker 3 (12:27):
Right right.
Speaker 1 (12:28):
I will share a fun fact, which is that you
mentioned Grover Cleveland, the only other non consecutive president I
you might know this. My cat is named after Grover Cleveland.
Speaker 2 (12:38):
And God knows that.
Speaker 5 (12:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (12:39):
And I actually adopted him.
Speaker 1 (12:40):
The reason he's named after a president at all is
that I adopted him on the eve of the twenty
sixteen election. I was living in rural Pennsylvania, was covering
the election quite a great I was out at Trump
rallies all the time. I was out in Scranton with
Hillary and out with you know, Trump. And and I
adopted him, you know, maybe like right around Halloween, so
right before and then I thought I'd name him the
(13:02):
second most catlike name of a president, just Grover, the
first being.
Speaker 3 (13:09):
Millard Garfield.
Speaker 5 (13:14):
I'm gonna I'm gonna go Millard Millard.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I approve that is good.
Speaker 1 (13:21):
And now it's funny because we I did not realize
that that was the election, you know, of course, you
know where at that time, I didn't know who would win.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
But I also didn't know.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
That he would go on to be the next very prescient,
non consecutive president. What did you say, God's timing there, you.
Speaker 5 (13:36):
Go, It works in a number of ways.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Yeah, Well, detail real quick.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
On the notion of things that could change. Because you're
sitting there, we all agree it is July about to
the August the primaries are still a good way down
the road in November, seems to be on the district rise.
But if you are a Democrat and you're and your thinking,
and pardon the way this sounds, you're looking for something
to go wrong, as a Republicans do. When Democrats something
wrong that we could weaponize, that we could take advantage
(14:02):
of that we can turn to our advantage. Look at
what they would be there really would be either the economy,
the border, the world and the world go crazy. I mean,
if we get a Russia Ukraine East deal, if we
get some end to Israel and Ammas where they can
actually be defeated, we can have actual peace in the
(14:22):
Middle East. On the economy, inflation seems pretty under control
right now. The tariffs that everybody thought we'd be, you know,
in our front yard eating our neighbor's liver because the
terriffs were going to destroy us and send us into
fourteen recessions and sixteen depressions, it simply has not happened.
The things that in the border seems silly me secure,
(14:43):
that's what's the thing that's going to go wrong. What
I guess, the economy always can, the world always can.
But boy, It's one wonders where the bottom drops at
what we would need to have happen that would suddenly
be such a chink in Trump's armor, such an enormous
hole for him to dig out of. Again, anything's possible,
(15:06):
But that's part of my confidence is high because the
things he actually ran on are things that actually for
the moment, seem to be working well.
Speaker 1 (15:13):
And I think, and we'll talk about this with some
Texas candidates as well, like they're certainly in Texas a
sense of like it would have to be significantly wrong,
you know, even tech for Texas Republicans particularly to turn
on President Trump. But you know, there are certain candidates
in Texas who sometime seem a little impervious and to
your question, know what could go wrong? What could go
(15:34):
so wrong that it would change the political calculus or
the common wisdom. Let's take a quick break for a
sponsor message, and then we'll get into some of.
Speaker 3 (15:43):
These Texas specific races.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
Today's episode is supported by members of the Texas Tribune.
Texas needs trusted journalism. Help sustain fact based reporting with
your donation. Become a member of the Texas Tribune today
at Texastribune dot org. Slash donate Texas Tribune dot org
slash donate. Well, you know, Mark, obviously, when I talk
(16:07):
about sort of teflon candidates, let's talk about the Cornyn
Paxton race for US Senate. We you know, I know
you've talked to John Cornyn plenty of times in your career.
Speaker 3 (16:18):
I'm you know, our long time.
Speaker 1 (16:21):
US senator facing the toughest primary of his career. What
are you sort of reading in the tea leaves there
and or by Tilei's I mean very clear polling that
he is falling behind.
Speaker 5 (16:35):
He Gosh, this is we could do five episodes on
this alone. Cornan has been a fixture for a really
long time. Conservative callers have been calling me for a
very long time talking about how dissatisfying they are with Cornyn.
Surely this time we're going to primary him. Surely, this
(16:55):
time there's going to be a more bold conservative. And
this is before the ascendants. Yere Trump and it simply
never ever happened. Was it Steve Stockman who came within
forty of him in twenty fourteen or so, That's as
close as anybody's gotten. He's been untouchable. Now, nobody has
(17:16):
been running against him named Ken Paxton. So let's go chronologically.
If we're talking a few months ago, the Attorney General
is someone who has taken some slings and arrows, been
through some controversies, and emerged virtually unscathed. You could not
find somebody who is a staunch Packston supporter who said,
(17:39):
some of this tax stuff, I'm out, some of this
courtroom stuff, I'm out. Even some of the personal stuff,
I'm out. You could not find that. But that was
very three months ago. Speaking of change, you could say
things have changed. So now with Angela having filed for divorce,
and with the corn And team clearly willing to come
(17:59):
out with some I mean brutal as coming after the
well brutal and accurate. That's what makes them so brutal
about the personal stuff. The big X factor here, the
big variable is how much will that hurt? Can it
can't not hurt him? If it's only one or two
percent of people who go, dude, I love you, but
(18:19):
I'm out, then of course he's still viable. Some internal polling,
which is almost always useless when Kennedi's go, oh, I've
got my own polling, Sure you do. They tell you
what you want to hear. He had like a twenty
point lead on Corny, and I think the ut Tyler
people came out some weeks ago and showed it as
roughly a ten point lead, but that was before all
(18:40):
of this. I think it'd be a good season for
a little bit of polling, like right now, to see
if it were more like eight or nine, or more
like one or two, or if the leads evaporated completely.
I don't believe it had as as this whole, messy, unfortunate,
sad story played out. I believe you mean, the least
scientific thing in the world is talk show calls and Twitter.
(19:01):
But they're interesting, they're anecdotal. You find out what a
smattering of people think. And I said, listen, if you
have been a strong Packston supporter, but this is just
a bridge too far. I had always said. One of
the things I always said is if Angela forgives him,
then who are we to continue? Who is anybody to
continue to bog down in the personal stuff? Well, Ken
(19:23):
can't use that anymore, his supporters can't use that anymore.
So my goal was to find out how much it mattered.
And in a few days of calls and a few
days of Twitter, polls for whatever they're worth. It just
it looked like almost nothing. Now I know that it's
not nothing. There has to be a voter defined by
general supportive Paxton, even a strong supportive Paxton. But this
(19:47):
is just too much. My friends at Texas Values, Jonathan
Sign's wonderful group, they've been aligned with Paxton on issue
after issue after issue after issue. But one of the
things that means a lot to them at Texas Values,
hence the name, is the sanctity of marriage. And so
they pulled their endorsement. And that's not like they've endorsed
Corn in or they don't want Ken to win, but
they just cannot have their endorsement there in their literature
(20:11):
for him. That can't be your best day on the
campaign trail. But if it is just a small bit
of damage, which it may be, I'll never forget one
of the text We have a text line. We got calls.
There too many ways to get hold of me these days.
But somebody wrote me and said, Mark, there's no amount
of Paxton misbehavior that makes John corn unacceptable. And now
(20:34):
this is a pretty maga based, grassroots conservative thing to say.
But if that's prevalent, of course, Paxton remains viable now.
Is this me predicting that he will win. Absolutely not,
because I think even that ten point lead is phony.
This will be a close race, It will be hard fought,
(20:54):
and the driving factor will be who offers himself up
as the most reliable Trump ally in the remainder of
this Trump term. Paxton's credentials are absolutely rock star quality
on that, but the person, the personal stuff may be
a bit of a drag on that. For Cornan, around
(21:15):
whom there has been interest doubt. I don't think Cornan
likes guns as much as he wants you to think
he does. He certainly didn't. He certainly did not like
Trump as much as he now seems to like him.
I mean, there is zero distance Cornyan is Trump. Ever
since Trump won, it has been a genius bit of positioning.
(21:36):
All the ads show Cornyan and Trump. Cornyan loves Trump.
Trump loves Cornyn. He's one of the most valuable allies
he has in the in the Senate. Quick thing, and
I'll shut up. I'm sorry, I don't. I don't know
if they'll be an endorsement. Would would would Trump endorse Paxton?
It looked for a while, you know, six months ago. Yeah, Well,
(21:57):
sure they've been friends forever, but would would he want
to issue that kind of a slap to a sitting
senator who's very important to him now? And if Trump
endorses Cornyn, WHOA, there's a large part of the base
that will go into open revolt. So that seems to
me like a race where Trump is able to say, Ken,
I've loved him forever, good friend, Cornyn, valuable, ally important guy,
(22:18):
I love him and just kind of stay out of
it and let voters have their say. And what will
that say be. I have no idea. It will be
a measure of how much rockstar power Action is able
to maintain, and I think it's going to be considerable
versus how good a job Cornyn will do of convincing
voters that he will absolutely be a Trump ballet. And
(22:39):
he's done it, quite frankly, a wonderful job of doing that.
So that's where it lays. I think it's a close
race and one of those wonderful things that are impossible
to call right now.
Speaker 4 (22:49):
Yeah, yeah, I mean I think what you were saying
there about the you know, the voters who have that
view that you know, whatever Paxson's behavior is you know,
it's it's irrelevant in assessing whether Cornyn, you know, whether
they'll ever support Cornan. I think that's kind of the
that encapsulates the challenge that Cornan is facing right now.
And I guess it also gets to the other point
(23:09):
about you know, electability and kind of the argument that
you know, I think this could potentially play into Trump's
decision about whether to get involved.
Speaker 2 (23:20):
You know, he wants to maintain the Senate.
Speaker 4 (23:22):
There's sort of this view out there that you know,
you know, maybe Paxton still still wins, but the National
Republicans have to put their resources more so in Texas
than they would like, and that takes away from you know,
North Carolina, other states. I mean, I guess I'm curious
Mark if you have any thoughts on the electability question
(23:43):
and sort of you know, Ken Paxton. I think you
can look at any data point you want to sort
of justify your view. I mean, he was, you know,
he came within striking distance of losing in twenty eighteen,
but on the other hand, twenty twenty two, he wins
by a comfortable, I think ten point margin. So given
all the kind of the data points swirling around and
(24:04):
what you've heard. I mean, do you feel like Paxton
presents an electability problem for Republicans if he's the nominee
or not?
Speaker 5 (24:14):
Not as much of one as the Corn team would
have you believe. So, so, what does Corn bring to
the table a track record of being thoroughly palatable to
a sufficient number of Republicans to win comfortably ever since
he's been running. Who doesn't want that? There are people
who want to say that if Paxton is the nominee
(24:36):
that he will be a lot more vulnerable. I don't
know that that's true. Is it mathematically? Do the data
points suggest that cornin First of all, either one of
these guys beats Colin all read period paragraph, end of story.
There's zero chance of a Democrat winning. To see, the
question is how big will the Republican margin be now?
(24:58):
And listen, all those of us in conservative land we
still remember and are still stung and frightened by how
freakishly close Beto came to Ted Cruz in twenty eighteen.
I mean, how in the world did that even happen?
And it makes us think you never can tell when
it might happen again. Colin all Read, ain't betto? Is
what comforts me at night. But here's how this comes.
(25:20):
With the data points and the notion of how either
of them might go, it is possible, in fact probable,
that Cornyn would win by a slightly larger margin than
Paxton would. But since if I'm right that there's no
chance of a democratic victory, go with whomever you like.
It's not one of those situations where well, we like
(25:40):
this Republican but he might lose. That's just simply not
the case. Here's here are the variables. No matter, this
is going to be one of the ugliest, most expensive, messy,
terrible primaries in the history of the stick. Great business
for me and the talk show, been great business for you,
all those of us who are in punditry and analysis.
(26:01):
You know, the gods will be smiling, but there'll be
so much blood on the walls by the time they're done.
And whoever loses, they're going to be a lot of
people who are really upset the people who voted for
If Paxton wins, the people who voted for Cornyn are
going to have to be wheedled and cajoled and attracted
to come over and vote for Paxton. Using the logic
(26:23):
we can't have a Democrat win, remember betto, We can't
have that happen again. And I think that would be
largely successful if Cornin fends off the Paxton challenge. Look
Out the Paxton people who didn't like Cornan before and
are really going to be bitter about him now are
going to have to get that same appeal message like, Okay,
the primary is over. It was rough, it was nasty,
(26:47):
but now we got to gather together as Republicans do
what we're supposed to do, and that's beat Democrats. And
so you've got to come over and find a way
to hold your nose if you view it as holding
your nose and support John Cornyn anyway, that I believe
is a harder sell, which is why Cornyn would probably
if I'm just packing crazy predictive numbers, I think Cornyan
(27:08):
wins by eight and packs and wins by four. But again,
that's at the electron right now. If something if Cornyan's
support for Trump is somehow drawn into doubt, if the
if the personal stuff starts to take hold with Ken
in a way that it's not doing right now, then
(27:28):
either of those figures is shiftable. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (27:31):
I mean, I just feel like We've heard this argument
a lot from DEM's right of you know, I mean
that was almost the argument that like George P. Bush
and if Husman we're making, which is, you know, we
can't put him up because he'll lose to a Democrat.
Speaker 3 (27:45):
Obviously he won handily, so it does.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Again, a lot can change, but it's sort of like
with President Trump with Pax, a lot would have to
change if nothing has sort of penetrated his base. Yet,
let's turn briefly to the who the heir apparent to
the Attorney General's office. We're gonna have our first open
GOP primary for Attorney General in a decade, the first
(28:10):
without you know, packs the specter of Paxton hanging over it.
So well, let me say this, I think the specter
of Paxton is hanging over this race pretty effectively. But yes,
without your yeah, without the embodiment of Paxton in the race.
So you know, we've talked about this on the podcast before,
but the field for the GOP looks pretty set with
(28:34):
you know, Senator Mays Middleton, who is self funding ten
million dollars in his campaign so far, State Senator Joan
Huffman sort of a little bit more of the establishment,
Houston base and Aaron Wrights, who is former assistant Attorney
General to Ken Paxton, former DOJ attorney, getting a lot
of money nowhere near ten million dollars, but really trying
(28:58):
to carve out his lane as the Paxton air apparent
mark just to begin with, like what you know in
terms of your listeners and people you're talking to? Is
there awareness about this campaign? Is there awareness about these candidates?
What's the name recognition issue?
Speaker 5 (29:14):
Here? As as state senators, Joan Huffman and May's Middleton
start out with an advantage because no one knows who
Aaron Rights is, or they or they didn't until a
few weeks to you they know now if they pay
some attention to social media and they've been watching some
of his media appearances, that they take a look at
Ken's endorsement of him, which is not a small thing.
(29:35):
The way this one shakes out right now is is
Joan Huffman is going to get a lot of the
GOP establishment Ava Guzman style vote. May's Middleton is a
better conservative than Joan Huffman is. But is he is
he Paxton friendly enough? Is he does he kind of
maga grassroots enough? Not that that's gonna not the best
(29:57):
ninety percent of Texas Republican voters. I mean, if it
were a Cornon wouldn't have been so unbeatable for low
these many years. But with Aaron Wrights around, I've spoken
to this gentleman a couple of times, and he has
like no fear. He's just jumping in there and saying
and being very vocal about the very Pacstonian kinds of
(30:19):
things that he's going to do. He was on I
think a station in Austin recently. I just to clip
the other day. I'm coming after these blue cities. They're
not going to be able to do these guys. I mean,
it sounded like the absolute linear continuation of the Paxton
style of being Attorney General. I don't know that May's
Middleton is ever going to say that that I'm going
(30:40):
to do everything Paxton did, at least in office. I
know that Johan Hubban's not going to say anything like that.
So the variable will be how much do Texas voters
how much do Republican first in the primary. Of course,
how much do Texas Republican voters want an absolute continuation
of packs to style policies. There's a lot of evidence
(31:03):
that that's exactly what the Republican flavor is going to be.
But for fundraising familiarity, name recognition, both May's Middleton and
Johan Huffman have more. So Aaron Rights has all the
all the right ingredients. He is he certainly has you know,
the right talking points, but still an upill climb.
Speaker 2 (31:23):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
I think it also strikes me as kind of a
the ultimate test of whether voters still care about you know,
experience and whether you know, kind of that as a
campaign pitch. You look at Aaron Wrights kind of pitching
himself as the you know, he was the offensive coordinator
under Paxton, if you like what Packson was doing suing
the Biden administration. I was at the center of that.
(31:47):
Joan Huffman kind of making a similar but different experience
based argument talking about her you know, time as a
judge and prosecutor, you know, overseeing a bunch of important
committees in the Senate. And you know, Middleton obviously has
that experience in the Senate as well, but he doesn't
have that type of you know, Aaron Wright's style legal credentials,
(32:10):
just being sort of enmeshed in this conservative legal movement.
But he does have ten million dollars. So I think
it's it's kind of the ultimate test of whether you
know the voters care enough about experience to overcome just
a seemingly on its face insurmountable money advantage.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
I mean, I'm going to make an observation about experience.
It has never mattered less, and I don't in Republican
Land particularly, and the evidence of it is there every day.
There's a guy who ran for president who had no
political experience and got more passion than anybody since Reagan.
His name is Donald Trump. I mean, obviously experience meant
(32:49):
something for two point zero because he had been president,
which is why two point zero is even better than
one point zero. He knows Washington now. But the Senator Cornyn,
when I talked to him, always it talks about you know,
and I say, listen, you and Ken, it seems like
you're going to if you indeed have become the Trump
acolyte that you offer yourself to be. Isn't it pretty
(33:09):
true that you and Ken will have just about the
same voting record. I mean, what's really going to be
the difference between what kind of cenator you will be
and the corn and response is very, very often. I
have all this experience, experience, experience, experience. I won't say
it doesn't matter. Oly matter. Experience is a good thing
to have. But what Republican voters in particular looking for
is how's your fight? How much will you fight? What
(33:32):
kind of energy do you bring? Do you draw? Do
you have the right enemies? I mean, do you have
your eye focused on battles against wotness, battles against profligate spending,
battles against you know, unconstitutional governance. If you've got your
eyes clear about that. Not only do we not care
(33:53):
that you don't have experience, we love that you've come
from the private sector because I think there's a kind
of what we've had it up to our eyeball with
career politician little bitner for twenty five years. Big deal.
Give me somebody with a with a fresh eye, a
fresh take on things. So I'll just say that experience
is never a bad thing to have. But I don't
know when it's ever been less important.
Speaker 1 (34:14):
An experience is all relative, right, I mean, you've got
I think the AGS race is a great example of this.
You've got Aaron Wright sort of portraying himself as the
political outsider and also the one experienced, you know, as
the offensive coordinator that sort of backs someone like Senator
Middleton into a corner of you know, well, his experience
is in you know, state legislating, which is sort of
(34:37):
almost the worst of both in the eyes.
Speaker 2 (34:39):
Of the republicability.
Speaker 5 (34:41):
Right.
Speaker 1 (34:41):
Yeah, but I will say, you know, Center Middleton has
gotten a ton of support from other members of the legislature,
many of whom are grassroots Republicans.
Speaker 3 (34:49):
So you know, I think there's sort.
Speaker 1 (34:51):
Of the the social media, the attacking in TV ads,
TV hits, radio hits like that makes a huge difference
in terms of name recognition. And then there's sort of
the the underground world in which a lot of politics
happens that's less obvious to the to the naked eye.
I think where I do think Center Middleton is pretty
(35:13):
experienced in working in those circles or the GOP donor yeah. Absolutely, Yeah,
you know, we could obviously get into a lot of
other races, but we will sort of leave it there.
Speaker 3 (35:23):
I mean, Mark, just big picture, you.
Speaker 1 (35:25):
Know, what are you what sort of your outlook for Republicans,
you know, between now and when we when we get
up to that primary and then ultimately general, I mean,
you know, what are the variables you're keeping an eye on.
Speaker 5 (35:40):
If if recent history is a prologue and once things
have been going in a certain way, only two things
can happen. They can continue in that certain way, or
the pendulum can start to swing back. Paxton remains a
rock star in terms of what he has done. The
personal stuff is a big We'll see whether it's a
Chinese water torture. If he can say but death one
(36:01):
thousand cuts, let's go with that over time. If it
starts to wear him down, I don't know. I don't
think that it will. What he has done is sufficiently
impactful that I think it's the kind of thing that
gives Aaron Wright a chance in a battle where he
would ordinarily have a big struggle against Tufman in Middleton.
That's going to be an interesting three way race. Dan
(36:21):
Patrick remains just a force of nature. He is ageless.
He's out there even things that are that are not
one hundred percent popular in the conservative base, the THC band.
He will not let go of that THC band. I
happen to think he's correct about that. But I took
a lot of calls and we remark I love Dan Patrick,
but he's wrong on the THC thing. He doesn't care,
he thinks it's right. He's going for it. Various the
(36:44):
ways in which he has piloted the Senate in a
way that gives the Texas Senate a better sort of
legislative image than the Messy House does. Coming off the
difficult era, Dade feeling, although the Dustin Burroughs era seems
to have gone much much much better, remains a power
and to finish at the top there with Governor Rabbit.
It is not the same Greg Abbott as four or
(37:06):
six or eight years ago. I was not to make
everything a measure of the calls I take or whatever.
But it's the people I talked to it it's the
studies of human nature that I get from doing this
show every day. There was conservative frustration about Abbott to
the extent that when Don Haffins and Alan West ran
against him, I took all kinds of calls from people
(37:27):
who said, hey, Mark Abbot's Abbot's going down.
Speaker 1 (37:29):
Man.
Speaker 5 (37:29):
It's either Alan West or Don Hoffines. And by the way,
I love Allan West, I love Don Hopkins. Hupfinds ride
a great campaign. Hop Fines would say something about property taxes,
Abbott would say it the next day. Huff Finds made
Abbott a better candidate four years ago. But I told listeners,
to their chagrin, there was no way Abbott was getting beat.
There was no way in the world either of these
(37:50):
primary challenges would come close to him. Because what you've
got to do, it's the Mark Davis rule of primaries.
The only way you're going to win. It doesn't matter
how awesome you are, how much we love you. You've
got to create a desire to fire the incumbent. That's
what Paxton's got to do. He's got to create it. It
doesn't matter how awesome Paxston is or the great things
he's done in the rock star status he has. I mean,
(38:10):
it's lovely. That's why he's going to come close. But
he will only win if he creates a palpable desire
on the part of a state that's loved him for
two decades to fire John Cornyn. If he can do that,
he wins. If he can't, then he doesn't. The point
being here is that Abbot has read the political room
so well and read and has seen the trumpification of
(38:33):
text at the further trumpification of Texas that I don't
hear a peep of conservative complaint about Abbott anymore at all,
which would seem to indicate, by a long winded way
of saying, that the deeper red status of Texas either
continues or stays where it is, the notion of the
pendulum swinging back and maybe a hint of purple working
(38:56):
toward blue. Maybe Colin already has a chance and throw
it redistricting, which we do at a whole week there
may not simply be you know, Martin Beezy and Julie
Johnson may not be around anymore. But let's just say
that it's trending well for Texas as a red state.
Speaker 1 (39:13):
And you want to talk about a war chest, I mean,
Governor Abbot just was it twenty million dollars in a
week and eighty six million dollars total?
Speaker 4 (39:21):
Right, yeah, And that's I mean, that's a big part
of the conversation with twenty twenty six too, just thinking
about back to twenty eighteen when you know, as we
were discussing, things got really close, but we had Governor
Abbott kind of lifting all boats on the Republican side.
Further down the ballot with his blowout when that same year,
(39:41):
and you know, to your point, Mark, I think with
Abbot sort of reading the conservative tea leaves and you know,
shoring up his right flank. I mean you just look
at the agenda that he's rolled out for this special session.
I mean it's kind of a grab bag of anything
you could you could want that hasn't yet been accomplished.
So I think he's a pretty bulletproof heading into March.
Speaker 1 (40:03):
Ran if he's got all that money and no primary challenger,
it's a lot to a lot of wealth to spread.
Speaker 5 (40:08):
Around an enviable place to be.
Speaker 3 (40:10):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (40:11):
Absolutely, Our colleague alle Hundro Serrana, when we saw that number,
said imagine what the Texas Tribune could do with that money?
Speaker 3 (40:18):
And I said, are you proposingly Rob craig donation?
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Time for that donation, bitch.
Speaker 3 (40:23):
Yes exactly.
Speaker 2 (40:25):
I'm sure Dave Carney's jumping jumping to send that over
to us. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 3 (40:29):
Yeah, I think we're top of the list for right now.
Speaker 1 (40:31):
Yes, well, you know we will have to leave it there,
but thank you so much for joining us, Mark, this
was a fantastic conversation. Yeah, before we head out, we
will just say thank you to this week's sponsor, members
of the Texas Tribune, which could be any of you
who are listening. Become a member of the Texas Tribune
today at Texas Tribune dot org slash donate. That is
(40:55):
this week's episode of the Trip Cast, Jasper, Thank you
for joining us.
Speaker 2 (40:58):
Thank you.
Speaker 1 (40:59):
Our producers are are Chris and Rob. You can get
this podcast anywhere you get podcasts or on YouTube dot
com and we'll see you next week.
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