September 20, 2025 • 37 mins
Buckeye Weekly: Mid-Season Over/Under Predictions for The Buckeyes
In this episode of the Buckeye Weekly Podcast, hosts Tony Gerdeman and Tom Orr dive into over/under predictions now that Ohio State has played three games this season. Tony quizzes Tom about various player performances and team outcomes, including Bo Jackson's rushing yards, Carnell Tate's touchdown catches, Julian Sayin's interceptions, and more. They also discuss Jeremiah Smith's punt return touchdowns and the shift in defensive strategy under Matt Patricia. Don't miss this fun and insightful early-season evaluation!
00:00 Introduction and Podcast Setup
00:40 Revisiting Season Predictions
01:25 Bo Jackson's Rushing Yards Debate
02:16 Over/Under Predictions for Ohio State
08:54 Passing Game Analysis
13:29 Julian Sayin's Interception Predictions
17:32 Defensive Predictions: Arvell Reese's Sacks
20:26 Debating Defensive Strategies
21:03 Kenyata Jackson's Potential
22:02 Evaluating Defensive Line Performance
26:04 Jermaine Matthews' Prospects
31:17 Predicting Shutouts for the Season
34:00 Jeremiah Smith's Punt Return Touchdown
37:08 Final Thoughts and Sign-Off
In this episode of the Buckeye Weekly Podcast, hosts Tony Gerdeman and Tom Orr dive into over/under predictions now that Ohio State has played three games this season. Tony quizzes Tom about various player performances and team outcomes, including Bo Jackson's rushing yards, Carnell Tate's touchdown catches, Julian Sayin's interceptions, and more. They also discuss Jeremiah Smith's punt return touchdowns and the shift in defensive strategy under Matt Patricia. Don't miss this fun and insightful early-season evaluation!
00:00 Introduction and Podcast Setup
00:40 Revisiting Season Predictions
01:25 Bo Jackson's Rushing Yards Debate
02:16 Over/Under Predictions for Ohio State
08:54 Passing Game Analysis
13:29 Julian Sayin's Interception Predictions
17:32 Defensive Predictions: Arvell Reese's Sacks
20:26 Debating Defensive Strategies
21:03 Kenyata Jackson's Potential
22:02 Evaluating Defensive Line Performance
26:04 Jermaine Matthews' Prospects
31:17 Predicting Shutouts for the Season
34:00 Jeremiah Smith's Punt Return Touchdown
37:08 Final Thoughts and Sign-Off
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Hello, everybody, Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony
Gerdaman here as always with Tom or Tom. How's it going.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Well, Tony, The tony of your voice already has me
pre annoyed. This is a show where normally we do
a bold prediction show for every upcoming Ohio State game,
and you all know how Tony is on those, And
I thought, oh, good, Ev will have a week free
from his annoying nonsense. And then he's like, I have
a show idea, and I thought, I don't care for
(00:34):
your tone, but here we are. We have to do
a show. So here we are, Tony, what are we doing? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (00:40):
That show idea is, let's now that we're three games
into the season, let's revisit and actually not even revisit.
Let's visit again, which is totally different than revisiting.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Hey, let's plain the rest of the show, having you
explain the difference between visiting again and revisiting.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
For a second time. Let's visit. I wanted to go
over some new overunders now that we have some information.
Anybody can do this before the season, and it's a
lot of its wild guessing. But now Tom, I'm giving
you some information, so this should be very very easy
now moving forward, if we go over SMO over unders,
you'll be like, oh, clearly, this is that, and this
(01:19):
is that. Of course, over unders are not meant to
be easy. We'll see how easy these go for you, Tom.
And the first one, I'm gonna throw it right out
there because this is going to be the title of
the show. Bo Jackson's rushing yards. I am setting it
at ninety nine zero point five. So Tom, is Bo
(01:44):
Jackson going to rush for one thousand yards this season?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Are we taking the entirety of the season? So this
could potentially be seventeen games? Right?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Yep?
Speaker 2 (01:57):
All right, So I.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Think he's missed one game, so he would have to
average if it's if they play seventeen, then you're talking
sixty two point five yards per game over his next
sixteen and he's already averaging one hundred and eight or
so and his two opportunities. So Tom, again, question has
been asked.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
All right? So the first question is how many games
is Ohio State Gon'll play this year? And it feels
like fourteen feels like a safe number where it would
at this point take something kind of crazy to happen.
For Ohio State to both miss the Big Ten championship
(02:37):
game and also lose in the first round of the playoff.
Not that it's not possible, but I think at this point,
fourteen and a half games is probably a realistic over
under for the season. Maybe we'll come back to that
one later when I want to annoy you, but so
we'll say fourteen games, and so over thirteen games he
(03:00):
would have to average seventy something. And he's got a
couple hundred and two games. So the cont the competition
is getting more difficult. Now, I'm gonna say, dividing carries,
(03:21):
he's gonna get ten carries a game, I'm gonna say under.
I'm gonna say under because I think if you're gonna
keep giving him nine ten carries a game, he's not
gonna average eight yards per carry all season. If he
does great, I'm sure Ohio State fans will be happy
and forget that I said under on this, But I
(03:43):
think just based on the number of carries, you're probably
looking at slightly under.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Okay, if he is getting, say ten carries a game,
what do you think his yards per carry is going
to be this season? In those in those ten carries
moving forward.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
In those ten carries move moving forward, he's looking at
I'm going to say between five and a half and
six maybe something like that. So we'll say five point seven,
So that's ten carries for fifty seven yards times eleven
games moving forward. Yeah, I mean, so yeah, you're you're
(04:20):
you're under there something like that.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
So right now he would have to average, say seventy
one point two yards per game on the ground to
get to that thousand yards moving forward. I'm also with you.
I'm going to go under because I think the the
fact that quinch Own Judkins and Travon Henderson both barely
got there is is a significant factor in terms of
(04:47):
just just that's a reference that's a reference point. But
you know, that's ten carries game, you know, six seven
yards a carry. That's that's a tall ask. So I
am with you as well, because he's not going to
continue averaging twelve yards to carry, and in order to
average the one hundred and eight yards that he's doing now,
(05:10):
he'd have to, you know, maybe get fifteen sixteen carries
something like that, which also I don't expect because that
didn't really happen last year with just two running backs.
So I'm with you, Tom, But so i'm you know,
what is a good number then, because again, true freshman,
he's already got two hundred and seventeen yards under his belt.
(05:33):
Is eight hundred? That still seems like a lot to me? Frankly,
that's a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Yeah, it's a lot. I think the more I think
about it, the more I think eight hundred is much
more interesting conversation than a thousand, because a thousand is
you know, hey, if he breaks a couple sixty yarders
here and there, sure that the mileage piles up pretty quickly.
But I don't think you're gonna have that many of
those moving forward, because I don't think you're going to
(06:00):
have you know, no disrespect to Grambling in Ohio, but
you're gonna be playing defenses better than Grambling in Ohio
and the majority of your games moving forward. And so
then the sixty four yarder that becomes a twenty five yarder.
And then if you're still at ten carries, you know,
ten carries a game, and you're averaging five yards per carry,
(06:20):
and nine of them are for forty five you know,
five yards pop. That's forty five, and then another twenty
five yard are On top of that, it's seventy and
you're still not there over you know, ten ten games
or so. So yeah, I think eight hundred is a
reasonable number. And you know, to say, will this you
(06:41):
know now, I'm sure people are going to be shaking
their fists and yelling about the disrespect. But if we
had said before the season, Bo Jackson eight hundred yards
over under, everyone would have said, what you clowns, Like,
what do you what are you even talking about? They
have two other running backs ahead of him, and again
you're dividing the carries up by three. That makes this
(07:02):
so much more of a difficult thing than if it
was JK. Dobbins in twenty nineteen, where he's getting twenty
three to twenty five carries a game. Yeah, eight piles
up real fast. If you're a good running back and
you're getting that many carries. No one's getting that many
carries these days.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
So he's already done a quarter of that of the
eight hundred and the two games. Of course, that's three
games total this season, So basically he's five hundred and
eighty three yards short of eight hundred yards, which over
the next eleven games would be fifty three yards per game,
which five point three yards per carry with this ten
carries a game. If that's what he's getting, I think
he could do that. And if he sticks to the
(07:40):
nine carries he's getting, feels like he would get that
as well. I think the biggest question here is will
he continue to get those nine carries ten carries. Nothing
we've seen to this point says otherwise other than the fact,
again still a true freshman and he's one of three.
So okay, we both go under one thousand. Did we
both go over eight hundred? Did we decide?
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, I'll take over eight hundred because I think you've
got much more potential upside in terms of they play
sixteen games, you know, rather than fourteen, instead of twelve
games instead of fourteen, and you get a possibility of,
you know, two or three more games and we're sort
of projecting rather than maybe one fewer than you would
(08:22):
you know, would be the potential downside there.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Then I guess, as an add on the number of
eight hundred yard rushers on this team, I would set
at one point five and I might take probably go
under that, But the number of seven hundred yard like,
at what point do you need to go three for three,
like to make it a two point five? Is it
six hundred, six hundred five fifty something like that, six
(08:46):
hundred to go a two and a half where you'd
go over. That's that. We'll revisit that after game six. Okay,
that's when we have more information and we'll put together
some more blind over unders for Tom to the passing game.
All right, so get your mindset on the passing game
(09:06):
over Under Carnell Tate touchdown catches eleven and a half.
He has three, one in each game so far this season,
so clearly, and this is should I make this just
the regular season, No, We'll go ahead and make it
the entire season because he's not going to get a
touchdown every game. I don't think Jeremiah Smith didn't do that,
(09:29):
so he you know, he had to double up a
couple of times. So eleven and a half touchdown catches
for Carnel Tate this season, and if you go back,
you know Jeremiah Smith had fifteen last year. A Mecca
Buca had ten, Marvin Harrison had fourteen in twenty twenty
three at fourteen and twenty twenty two, Chris Olave had
(09:51):
thirteen and twenty twenty one. Garrett Wilson had twelve in
twenty twenty one as well, so certainly not unheard of
by any means. And right now he's on a pretty
good stretch.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
He's on a very good stretch. And I'm yeah, I'm
just kind of was scrolling back through some of these
previous seasons where yeah, Garrett Wilson had twelve, kris Alova
hit thirteen, like you said in twenty twenty one, Like
I was looking at twenty twenty three and thinking, well,
how many touchdowns did Meca book having twenty twenty three
And the answer was five, which is like, oh boy,
(10:24):
that's you know, yeah, fourteen and ten and twenty twenty two.
So it's certainly doable. But it's also they're throwing to
so many tight ends.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Now.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I was all ready to say yes. I was all
ready to say over because it seems like eleven and
you know you're getting one a game, and you're gonna
have a game where you get two at some point,
and they're gonna play fourteen fifteen games, so it feels
like you're gonna have as many two's as you have zeros.
(10:58):
So but then you look at the previous and there's
lots of years when the second guy didn't have eleven,
And you've got so many tight ends this year that
I think Max Clayer is stealing a touchdown here, and
Will Kes Merrick's stealing a touchdown there, and Bennett Christian
or Jalanie Thurman. You know, these guys are going to
be scoring a bunch of touchdowns through the air. I
(11:22):
think I'm going under, and I would not have thought
that when you were asking the question. I thought, Okay,
this is probably a fairly easy over. But given how
much they're spreading the ball around this year, Jeremiah Smith, Yes,
Jeremiah Smith, my answer is yes for whatever the question is.
(11:43):
Everyone else, I think you're going to spread the ball
around enough, and you're seeing enough different formations, and I
think you're probably going to see a little more Bryce
and Rogers and Milon Graham at some point, and they
are going to start throwing the ball at the bright
to Brandon Innis at some point, and so I think
are going to spread it around enough that he ends
up with more like ten instead of twelve.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
I immediately wanted to go over on this one, and I
think one of the things we need to remember is
perhaps some of the reason he's doing well is because
of all of the attention on Jeremiah Smith. That's not
going to go away. We do know they're gonna open
up the offense in other ways moving forward as everybody
gets more comfortable and receivers get more comfortable to the
young guys, and they decided it's time to get Brandon
(12:29):
Innis involved. I'm still I'm going to go over because
I'm tired of us being cowards on this show. Through
two over unders, I don't think he even you know,
he could have four right now, except he didn't. There
was the one in the red zone that he didn't
come down with because there wasn't as pinpoint as it
(12:49):
normally is from Julian sand So I will say over,
and I do think he'll get to that. Twelve eleven
just seems kind of low.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Frankly, I'm sorry, I just want to be clear on this.
With the audience that we have, you feel that me
saying under on things makes me a Coward's that's what
makes me a coward. With the audience that we have,
who I'm sure are like, I sure hope he says
under a bunch that feels like what our audience is
looking to hear. So, yes, I just want to be clear,
I'm the coward here. I just want to make sure
(13:21):
we're on the same page. There.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Two things can be true. One, you can be the
coward too. Also, people don't want you jinxing the Buckeyes.
Next one. Julian Saying has already thrown three interceptions this season.
Some would say he is an interception machine, averaging one
interception thrown per game. I am setting the over under
(13:45):
on interceptions for Julian Saying this year at nine point five.
Last year, Will Howard through ten, the four years before that,
from twenty one to twenty two to twenty three, from
twenty twenty one to twenty two, twenty three, maybe even
that whole stretch like every year. Yeah, it was twenty three,
(14:07):
twenty two, twenty one. Sorry, six interceptions thrown by the
starting quarterback. So I'm just taking you know, these three,
and then I'll just add on another six and a
half and say nine point five interceptions. I've I know
where I'm going, based mostly on the fact that two
(14:27):
of these interceptions were flukes and one was just him
getting greedy against Grambling State.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Yeah, so man, I thought you you were winding up,
and I'm like, he's gonna say twelve, and I'm going
to say under, and I'm going to dust my hands
and that's going to be that. And then you said
nine and a half, and I was all right. I
had my whole explanation ready that two of the X
two of the interceptions against Ohio were flukes. One of
them was went to the hit a defensive tackle who
(14:55):
had dropped into coverage and he batted the ball up
in the air and then someone picked it up off
on the caram and then the other one really should
have been a fumble and not a not an interception
because it wouldn't have been an incomplete pass if it
had hit the ground, So why would be a interception then,
So really that one should be corrected. And if you
(15:16):
were gonna say twelve, I'm gonna say that's an easy under.
The problem is those three are banked now, and so
is he gonna throw six interceptions or less over the
last nine regular season games plus potential Big Ten championship
game plus one to four College Football playoff games. That's
(15:38):
a lot. That's asking a lot to have six for
that span of games because you're you're looking at better competition,
you're looking at probably thirteen games. So then you're saying,
can he be as good as C. J. Stroud was
in twenty twenty two? Can he be as good as CJ.
(15:58):
Strod was in twenty twenty one one? That's asking an
awful lot. Will Howard is really good. C. K. Stroutt
did not play fourteen games in either of those season,
by the way, So I'm gonna say he's over that.
I'm gonna say he's between nine and a half and
eleven and a half, so he's you know, he figured
(16:18):
he finishes around ten. I think is probably a good guess,
right around where Will Howard finished last year. Will Howard
had a great season last year. Will Howard took care
of the ball really well for pretty for you know,
the vast, fast, vast majority of an extremely long season,
and he still went over this number. So I'm gonna
say he goes over this number next year, I'll take under.
(16:39):
But this year you got the you got the three
already baked in in two games where you would say, well,
certainly he's not gonna throw an interception in those games,
and then he did. He hasn't had to go on
the road yet. You got the win to Illinois, you
got a bunch of road games and big credit. You
got a bunch of just dumb stuff that's gonna add up.
Lord knows what Jim Knowles has planned for this for
(17:00):
that Ohio State game. I am sure it will be
something new and creative. So yeah, I will go. I
will go over, but only slightly over.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
You gotta figure there's probably an interception against Michigan just
because that's the way things go. But yeah, twenty twenty
twenty three, justin Fields twice, CJ. Stroud, and once calm
Accord all six interceptions over the course of a season.
And right now, that's all we're asking Julian saying to do.
And you're saying, Hey, America, he can't do it. That's
(17:29):
what you are saying. That's interesting, that's interesting. Anyway, let's
move to the defense.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Now, why did I think I would hate this show?
I'm not sure where I get off.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
So r Vel reach right now, tied for the team
lead with two sacks through three games. Wasn't asked to do,
you know, much against Grambling State because sportsmanship over under
on r Vel Reese sacks this year. I am setting
at nine zero point five. And as you think about this,
(18:03):
I'm going to go back and try to find the
last time an Ohio State linebacker had more than ten sacks,
and you probably have to go back to Ryan Shazier,
or I'd say probably Ryan Shazier.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
So this is one where as you're talking, I've been
just setting the number in my head and I thought,
he you know, he's going to say ten, and then
you said nine and a half and I said, sold,
we are going to take the over on this one,
because yeah, it's very hard for an Ohio State linebacker
to get ten sacks. History has shown that. Is r
vel Reese lining up like an Ohio State linebacker. The
(18:42):
answer is sometimes, but not always. Ohio State Russians have
had lots of sacks over the years, and rvel rees
feels like he's someone who he's going to take a
certain number of snaps lined up as an end, he's
going to take a certain number of steps, line up
in the middle of the line, he's going to be
all over the place, and the way they're moving him around,
he it feels like he is one of the real
(19:04):
featured guys in this year's defense where Matt Patricia is going,
this is a guy I would to I don't want
the defense to know where he is because I don't
want them to be able to block this guy, you know,
line up their their protection specifically to focus on him.
That tells me Matt Patricia thinks this is someone who's
going to be getting home quite a bit this year.
So yeah, to me, I will take the over on that.
(19:26):
I might have even taken the over on ten.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
You know, And I wish I would have looked sooner
because it was it wasn't Ryan Jay's ears. So I
don't know, maybe if it was maybe like an AJ
Hawk in two thousand and five, as I scroll through there,
because I don't think it's gonna have to go all
the way back to Andy katzen Moore in like nineteen
ninety six. But yeah, boy nine and a half for
a J Hawk in two thousand and five, So maybe
(19:52):
maybe you got to go back ten years before that
almost to find somebody. But again, I'm with you, this
isn't just a blitzing linebacker, far from it. And and then
as a spy at times, some of these spies where
you know it's it is a pass and so he's
waiting for the guy to try to escape the pocket
and then he's gonna go get get the quarterback. He
could end up with some sacks there, I will, you know,
(20:16):
sacks and trying to predict sacks never never goes well.
So I will say. I'm gonna say, under m, I don't.
I don't. I don't feel good about it because of
the multi purpose that he has in the defense.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Well, when we're in the witning next Wednesday night, I
just I'm gonna when I point said Arvel, he said,
under I just you know, good luck with that. I
don't know. He looks fast. I don't think you'd be
able to r on him, but you know, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
And and the crazy thing is like he already has
he has also a tackle on a quarterback at the
line of scrimmage.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Yeah what one yard back? It would have been a sack. Yes.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
So, like like I said, I don't feel good about this,
and I'm not using much logic and making this choice,
which is ooh start of my life. I'm gonna stick
with the getting after the quarterback. Ken YadA Jackson no
sacks to this point, right, He's had opportunity. Would you
agree with that? Tom? Yes, I'm going to set the
over under for Kenyada Jackson sacks this season and he
(21:19):
has three in his career at five and a half,
so basically asking him to double his career output in
the next thirteen eleven twelve games. What do you think?
Speaker 2 (21:35):
So this is one where you I have had the
number in my head each time and I thought five
and a half and then you said five and a
half when I thought, well, shoot, that's not good. That's
the number I was thinking. So it feels like that
number is not that high, but he hasn't done it.
And it also, you're only going to have so many sacks.
If you put up forty sacks as a defense over
(21:58):
the course of a year, that's a enormous year. And okay,
we've given a quarter of those already to Arvelle Reese
and Cayden Curry. Feels it feels like they've kind of
found some different creative ways to use Kayden Curry in
that Rushman package. That is probably you know, that probably
takes some away and you figure CJ. Hicks will have
(22:20):
a few and I'm just sort of going through an
allocating sunny styles is going to have a few. Five
and a half feels like a very very well set
line because it's like, will he have five or will
he have six? Because you would have certainly figured against
against Grambling. Certainly he will get a sack against Grambling.
Certainly he'll get a sack against Ohio, and then you
(22:42):
only have to get four more of the rest of
the year. He doesn't have it against Ohio, he doesn't
have against Grambling. So now where do we go with that?
I'll say over just so I'm sort of balancing things out,
But I feel I don't feel remotely strongly about this
one way or another, because, like I said, I think
(23:04):
this number is pretty dead on. I think he finishes
with five or six, and so five and a half
I kind of look at that number and sort of
shrug and go.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Eh, he could finish with five and a half. You know,
in twenty twenty three, J. T. Twemlowall had five, so
and then the next year he had twelve and a half.
Jack Sawyer was over that five and a half number
in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. But they
don't always even have a defensive vent who is over
(23:33):
that number. For me, I'm going to go over because
it's hard to ignore how people were talking about him. Uh,
there will be like some sort of a multi sack
game at some point to you know, to build that number.
So I'm going to go over. I don't think it'll
be over by a lot though.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Yeah, And I'm just sort of thinking through big ten
offensive lines now, and there are some teams that I've
looked at and thought, that's not great tackle play there.
So you could very easily see you pick up a
game a sacon or half or two sacks in a
game and boom, all of a sudden, you're a quarter
with the way there, a third of the way there.
So yeah, I'll say over, but not not with a
(24:20):
great degree of certainty.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Well, let me throw something else on there, because right now,
Caden Curry tied with the with ar Val Reese with
two What is a what is a number for him
that would make you like because here here's I'm thinking.
I'm still thinking like six and a half or seven
and a half just because the rotations and the numbers.
(24:42):
I don't necessarily see any of these defensive linemen getting
more than seven or eight sacks this season.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Right And because I think you're going to see some
of them sort of poached by the linebackers, where the
linebacker unit's gonna end up with more than you traditionally
have seen there because they're using them a little differently
and they're lining up a little differently this year. Cayden Curry,
I would be tempted to say over except it feels
to me like Cayden Curry has more than two sacks.
I looked at I looked at his stats and thought,
(25:13):
is that right? Did they miss a game? What's going on?
Because it feels like he's been so active and so
disruptive and it hasn't necessarily shown up in the stat
sheet there. So yeah, seven seven and a half something
like that is reasonable. And if he has, if he
finishes year with six sacks, that's still a very good year.
That's still a very disruptive year. Because the snaps are
(25:33):
getting spread around more, the lineups, the alignments are changing
so much that I don't know that I can look
at previous years and go, this is what the Ohio
State's top defensive end should have because they're not playing
necessarily quite the same position that they were a couple
of years ago.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
Yeah, and what exactly are they being asked to do?
How much of this is contained and how much of
this is go reek havoc? All right, Tom, I think
we both agree that nobody's gonna get any sacks this
year other than Arvel Reese. Jermaine Matthews, standout cornerback junior
number seven, has one interception on the season. So this
over under this number is Jermaine Matthews total interceptions this season.
(26:18):
And when you start thinking about this, it's like, well,
you know, he's very good. He gets after the ball,
but interceptions are not something that Ohio State does in
big amounts at quarter over the years. So I am
still setting this number, which feels like kind of sizeable
to me at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Yeah. Well, so I'm just going back and looking. When
was the last time an Ohio State defensive player had
even three interceptions in a season?
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Jeff Okudain twenty nineteen, John Wadons.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Two, Tanna McAllister in twenty twenty two, the last Ohios
player to have more than two interceptions in a season,
And just going back through another one, no one did
it in twenty twenty one. I'm guessing no one did
it in twenty twenty because there were so many fewer games. Nope,
no one did it in twenty twenty. So Tanner, McAllister
(27:20):
and Jeff Okuda, someone who went in the top five
of the NFL draft, and someone who I don't know
where he is now. I think he went to does
he go to the NFL draft after that season and
then undrafted free agent? Undrafted free agent? So yes, So
is Tremaine Matthews either a top five draft pick or
a NFL undrafted free agent A what a combination that is?
(27:44):
I think just based on the total balance of probability
here on how frequently guys have that many interceptions, I'm
going to say under now, all of that was under
a Carry Combs or Jim Noles defense. And you're seeing
a very different they are doing. I mean, if you've
watched the Ross Fulton shows that we've done the last
couple of weeks, they are doing all sorts of stuff
(28:06):
in the back end of the defense, the disguise coverages,
and they're they're putting it on a tee for the quarterback.
Good news, we're in cover three. Jurew would hate it
if you did it through a pass that was you know,
good for beating a cover three coverage and then they
rotate and it's like, nope, we're doing anything but anything
(28:28):
at all other than that, And so they're disguising coverages.
So you figure the might get more interceptions this year.
And the pass rush we keep talking, you know, we
spend we spent a lot of time on the pass
rush and the fact that they're gonna probably get you know,
get a number of sacks because they're skuising things up
front pretty well as well. So I think you're gonna
(28:49):
have a lot of confusion. I think you're gonna see turnovers.
So this is the year where you're probably more likely
to have three interceptions. But it just, i mean, historically
it just really has not happened very often. So the
odds are the yards are the answers. No, So I'm
going to say the answer is no. But you know,
with as much as much as they're doing to confuse
opposing quarterbacks, could four guys have three interceptions this year? Yeah? Absolutely,
(29:12):
Like at this point, at this point, I'm ready to
believe whatever about this year's defense.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
Two and a half just felt low to me. Then
going back and looking twenty sixteen, you both had Marshaun
Lattimore and Gary n Conley both with four interceptions that year,
and we all remember Malie Cooker going off with the
seven interceptions and the three touchdowns, but both Latimore and Condy,
so those are got two first round picks. Do we
think Jabring Matthews could be a first round pick? Of course,
(29:40):
but it's a longer season. I'm probably I'm also going
under just because we there's just such a lack of
cornerback production in terms of interceptions over the years, and
to have to go back to twenty sixteen to be like, yeah,
but look, uh huh right here, I'm proving you wrong.
(30:04):
It's just it's just not sound. But would I be
shocked if he has four interceptions this year? No, Tom,
you probably would be. I would not be shocked.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I would not be shocked if any of the starting
defensive backs had four interceptions this year. They're not all
going to get four interceptions. But I mean, are you
telling me Caleb Downs can't get four interceptions, or you
telling me Jaylen McClain can't get four interceptions? Davis Nigunosen,
It wouldn't shock me if any of them did, or
if multiple of them had three interceptions. It just it
(30:34):
feels like I kind of want to see it. I
understand intellectually why this year's defense might be better and
might be more prone to producing turnovers like that. I
just I kind of want to see because it hasn't.
You know, they have not had the five turnover game yet.
You know you have not interception. Maybe you know last
time I checked Jaden or who's blaredest quarterbacks? Not Jayden Vershata,
(30:58):
the other one, DJ Lagway dj Lag is not on
the schedule this year. So you know, we'll we'll see.
Maybe maybe you can get that out of out of
someone this year, but you haven't. You haven't seen it
so far, so I'll uh, I'll say, let's let's see
it first.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Tom wants to see it against the quarterback that isn't
arch Manning understood, understood last defensive quite number for me.
The over under on shutouts the rest of the way out,
I'm gonna just put it at zero point five because
one point five felt too hot. Zero one more shut
(31:33):
out for the defense the rest of the way. What
do you say, Tom, you absolute hater.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Her Well, I always say you never predict a shutout
because there's so many things that go into that, but
that's on an individual basis for a week. So they
got the shutout that you certainly would have expected against Grambling,
and they gave up about what you would have expected
against Ohio. They were way lower than what you sort
(31:59):
of infected against Texas. And there are some bad offenses
left on this schedule. I mean, I don't I don't
think there's any one game that I look at and
say they will definitely get a shutout in this game.
But Tony, I wish I knew who how to do
the eight clap right now. I wish I remembered how
to do that, because you see La they are walking
(32:21):
through that door and it's not great. We'll see how
what it looks like you post to Sean Foster era,
but they're not great. Rutgers is. Rutgers is better this year,
but you've got you've got teams where you could see it,
and this, you know one when you get into the
college football playoff conversation piece of the year, sometimes you're
(32:43):
looking to make a statement and so you might be
hoping for you might be looking to specifically do that.
So yeah, I will say yes, I will say over
zero point five shutouts in the remaining the remaining season.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
Yeah, and when looking at that number, you don't even
can that are the postseason games because you're not even
thinking about shutouts there.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Who just came shut out in a college football playoff game? Tony?
Can you imagine such a thing?
Speaker 1 (33:09):
No? No, sure, couldn't do that.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Number one. We were talking about Malie Hooker. Anyway, What
was the last one? You have anything on the special teams?
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I do, actually, but the last thing, like on the shutouts,
Basically it's like Wisconsin, Perdue and Ucla and you're probably
expecting Wisconsin to score at home, so then it's like,
are you gonna shut out both Purdue and Ucla back
to back? Probably not, So I felt like the one
point five would be too high because it would have
to be almost those two guys, those two schools. But
(33:39):
I would go over on the zero point five for sure, Tom.
Last one special teams. We know Ohio State wants this
to happen. We've seen them try it, put it on,
put it out there to get it to happen. The
number is zero point five, and I'm just going Jeremiah
(34:01):
Smith punt return touchdowns. We saw him they put him
out there at midfield, wanting him to get his Heisman moment.
We know that they are trying to They're not gonna
admit it, but a punt return touchdown would go a
long way for a wide receiver who is trying to
win the Heisman, and especially for a head coach who
was trying to help his player win the Heisman. I
(34:24):
am saying zero point five punt return touchdowns. That is
in line. Tom, I'll just let you go. I'll let
you know right now. I'm going over.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Yeah, I'm going over as well. I think we've seen
enough already where only one guy had two touchdowns against Grambling.
They really spread it out. Jeremiah Smith scored two touchdowns
and Jeremiah Smith scored it to a passing touchdown or
receiving touchdown against Ohio. But they also fed him a
reverse in the red zone at a point where Friday
(34:54):
and need to do that. But you could do that,
and so you put that out. Oh look here, this
will look good on the on a heisman reel. Look,
he can do it in the running game as well.
You saw them put him out there. They had two
guys covering the gunner on the short side. I think
of the field on that one they were it felt
(35:14):
like they're really trying to set that up as a return.
I think they are going to do their very best
to get Jeremiah with at the punt return for a
touchdown this season, and I am going to say that
they will do it. It's something that had not happened
for ten years before Caleb Downs did it last year.
The fact that they put him out there last week
against Ohio in a moment that was not a oh boy,
(35:36):
you really got to do it now. If you don't
do it now the games in jeopardy, that just felt
like it would be great to get him a punt
return touchdown. I think they are going to be able
to do that at some point this year.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Also, Tom, let's keep in mind we both watched the
Colorado State Washington season opener. Colorado State drew up a
double pass that would have worked perfectly, but the receiver
could not throw it. What kind of arm does Jeremiah
Smith have, because you know the attention is going to
be his way and there would be the opportunity for
(36:06):
somebody to leak out and we don't often get to
see a Heisman moment type of play for wide receiver
being him throwing a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
Yeah, and I go back to Eric Crouch catching a touchdown.
That was it. Think about how often you saw that
play during that two thousand and one season that was
on every time they talk about Eric Crouch, you saw
that play. So yeah, I think I think there's a
real possibility they're going to try and get Jeremiah Smith
to score five different ways this season. You know, you
(36:36):
we have have we seen him as a kick returner.
I don't know that we've seen him in return of
this year, So maybe it's only four ways. But you pass,
you run, you throw, and you return a punt. Maybe
he gets a safety. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
You're telling me shot again, Packer put him at shot again?
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Yeah, sure, sure, I mean yeah, I think you're gonna
have enough games where you can screw around a little
bit and get a little cute see, and I think
they're gonna I think they will find a way to
do that at some point.
Speaker 1 (37:04):
All right, all right, so we're both going over on
the punt return touchdown for Jeremi Smith, so that will
do it. If you're watching on YouTube, please hit the
thumbs up. We'd appreciate that subscribe to the channel. If
you've not yet done so, I.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Know a lot of you have.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
We do appreciate that if you have it, you're missing out,
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Say hello to us there on the bucket Huddle message
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your head. Just enjoy whatever you get to watch and
(37:34):
then be safe out there. So thank you all for
tuning in, and we'll talk to you all later
Hello, everybody, Welcome to the Buckeye Weekly Podcast. I'm Tony
Gerdaman here as always with Tom or Tom. How's it going.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Well, Tony, The tony of your voice already has me
pre annoyed. This is a show where normally we do
a bold prediction show for every upcoming Ohio State game,
and you all know how Tony is on those, And
I thought, oh, good, Ev will have a week free
from his annoying nonsense. And then he's like, I have
a show idea, and I thought, I don't care for
(00:34):
your tone, but here we are. We have to do
a show. So here we are, Tony, what are we doing? Yeah?
Speaker 1 (00:40):
That show idea is, let's now that we're three games
into the season, let's revisit and actually not even revisit.
Let's visit again, which is totally different than revisiting.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
Hey, let's plain the rest of the show, having you
explain the difference between visiting again and revisiting.
Speaker 1 (00:57):
For a second time. Let's visit. I wanted to go
over some new overunders now that we have some information.
Anybody can do this before the season, and it's a
lot of its wild guessing. But now Tom, I'm giving
you some information, so this should be very very easy
now moving forward, if we go over SMO over unders,
you'll be like, oh, clearly, this is that, and this
(01:19):
is that. Of course, over unders are not meant to
be easy. We'll see how easy these go for you, Tom.
And the first one, I'm gonna throw it right out
there because this is going to be the title of
the show. Bo Jackson's rushing yards. I am setting it
at ninety nine zero point five. So Tom, is Bo
(01:44):
Jackson going to rush for one thousand yards this season?
Speaker 2 (01:48):
Are we taking the entirety of the season? So this
could potentially be seventeen games? Right?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
Yep?
Speaker 2 (01:57):
All right, So I.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Think he's missed one game, so he would have to
average if it's if they play seventeen, then you're talking
sixty two point five yards per game over his next
sixteen and he's already averaging one hundred and eight or
so and his two opportunities. So Tom, again, question has
been asked.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
All right? So the first question is how many games
is Ohio State Gon'll play this year? And it feels
like fourteen feels like a safe number where it would
at this point take something kind of crazy to happen.
For Ohio State to both miss the Big Ten championship
(02:37):
game and also lose in the first round of the playoff.
Not that it's not possible, but I think at this point,
fourteen and a half games is probably a realistic over
under for the season. Maybe we'll come back to that
one later when I want to annoy you, but so
we'll say fourteen games, and so over thirteen games he
(03:00):
would have to average seventy something. And he's got a
couple hundred and two games. So the cont the competition
is getting more difficult. Now, I'm gonna say, dividing carries,
(03:21):
he's gonna get ten carries a game, I'm gonna say under.
I'm gonna say under because I think if you're gonna
keep giving him nine ten carries a game, he's not
gonna average eight yards per carry all season. If he
does great, I'm sure Ohio State fans will be happy
and forget that I said under on this, But I
(03:43):
think just based on the number of carries, you're probably
looking at slightly under.
Speaker 1 (03:47):
Okay, if he is getting, say ten carries a game,
what do you think his yards per carry is going
to be this season? In those in those ten carries
moving forward.
Speaker 2 (03:58):
In those ten carries move moving forward, he's looking at
I'm going to say between five and a half and
six maybe something like that. So we'll say five point seven,
So that's ten carries for fifty seven yards times eleven
games moving forward. Yeah, I mean, so yeah, you're you're
(04:20):
you're under there something like that.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
So right now he would have to average, say seventy
one point two yards per game on the ground to
get to that thousand yards moving forward. I'm also with you.
I'm going to go under because I think the the
fact that quinch Own Judkins and Travon Henderson both barely
got there is is a significant factor in terms of
(04:47):
just just that's a reference that's a reference point. But
you know, that's ten carries game, you know, six seven
yards a carry. That's that's a tall ask. So I
am with you as well, because he's not going to
continue averaging twelve yards to carry, and in order to
average the one hundred and eight yards that he's doing now,
(05:10):
he'd have to, you know, maybe get fifteen sixteen carries
something like that, which also I don't expect because that
didn't really happen last year with just two running backs.
So I'm with you, Tom, But so i'm you know,
what is a good number then, because again, true freshman,
he's already got two hundred and seventeen yards under his belt.
(05:33):
Is eight hundred? That still seems like a lot to me? Frankly,
that's a lot.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Yeah, it's a lot. I think the more I think
about it, the more I think eight hundred is much
more interesting conversation than a thousand, because a thousand is
you know, hey, if he breaks a couple sixty yarders
here and there, sure that the mileage piles up pretty quickly.
But I don't think you're gonna have that many of
those moving forward, because I don't think you're going to
(06:00):
have you know, no disrespect to Grambling in Ohio, but
you're gonna be playing defenses better than Grambling in Ohio
and the majority of your games moving forward. And so
then the sixty four yarder that becomes a twenty five yarder.
And then if you're still at ten carries, you know,
ten carries a game, and you're averaging five yards per carry,
(06:20):
and nine of them are for forty five you know,
five yards pop. That's forty five, and then another twenty
five yard are On top of that, it's seventy and
you're still not there over you know, ten ten games
or so. So yeah, I think eight hundred is a
reasonable number. And you know, to say, will this you
(06:41):
know now, I'm sure people are going to be shaking
their fists and yelling about the disrespect. But if we
had said before the season, Bo Jackson eight hundred yards
over under, everyone would have said, what you clowns, Like,
what do you what are you even talking about? They
have two other running backs ahead of him, and again
you're dividing the carries up by three. That makes this
(07:02):
so much more of a difficult thing than if it
was JK. Dobbins in twenty nineteen, where he's getting twenty
three to twenty five carries a game. Yeah, eight piles
up real fast. If you're a good running back and
you're getting that many carries. No one's getting that many
carries these days.
Speaker 1 (07:20):
So he's already done a quarter of that of the
eight hundred and the two games. Of course, that's three
games total this season, So basically he's five hundred and
eighty three yards short of eight hundred yards, which over
the next eleven games would be fifty three yards per game,
which five point three yards per carry with this ten
carries a game. If that's what he's getting, I think
he could do that. And if he sticks to the
(07:40):
nine carries he's getting, feels like he would get that
as well. I think the biggest question here is will
he continue to get those nine carries ten carries. Nothing
we've seen to this point says otherwise other than the fact,
again still a true freshman and he's one of three.
So okay, we both go under one thousand. Did we
both go over eight hundred? Did we decide?
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, I'll take over eight hundred because I think you've
got much more potential upside in terms of they play
sixteen games, you know, rather than fourteen, instead of twelve
games instead of fourteen, and you get a possibility of,
you know, two or three more games and we're sort
of projecting rather than maybe one fewer than you would
(08:22):
you know, would be the potential downside there.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
Then I guess, as an add on the number of
eight hundred yard rushers on this team, I would set
at one point five and I might take probably go
under that, But the number of seven hundred yard like,
at what point do you need to go three for three,
like to make it a two point five? Is it
six hundred, six hundred five fifty something like that, six
(08:46):
hundred to go a two and a half where you'd
go over. That's that. We'll revisit that after game six. Okay,
that's when we have more information and we'll put together
some more blind over unders for Tom to the passing game.
All right, so get your mindset on the passing game
(09:06):
over Under Carnell Tate touchdown catches eleven and a half.
He has three, one in each game so far this season,
so clearly, and this is should I make this just
the regular season, No, We'll go ahead and make it
the entire season because he's not going to get a
touchdown every game. I don't think Jeremiah Smith didn't do that,
(09:29):
so he you know, he had to double up a
couple of times. So eleven and a half touchdown catches
for Carnel Tate this season, and if you go back,
you know Jeremiah Smith had fifteen last year. A Mecca
Buca had ten, Marvin Harrison had fourteen in twenty twenty
three at fourteen and twenty twenty two, Chris Olave had
(09:51):
thirteen and twenty twenty one. Garrett Wilson had twelve in
twenty twenty one as well, so certainly not unheard of
by any means. And right now he's on a pretty
good stretch.
Speaker 2 (10:03):
He's on a very good stretch. And I'm yeah, I'm
just kind of was scrolling back through some of these
previous seasons where yeah, Garrett Wilson had twelve, kris Alova
hit thirteen, like you said in twenty twenty one, Like
I was looking at twenty twenty three and thinking, well,
how many touchdowns did Meca book having twenty twenty three
And the answer was five, which is like, oh boy,
(10:24):
that's you know, yeah, fourteen and ten and twenty twenty two.
So it's certainly doable. But it's also they're throwing to
so many tight ends.
Speaker 1 (10:35):
Now.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
I was all ready to say yes. I was all
ready to say over because it seems like eleven and
you know you're getting one a game, and you're gonna
have a game where you get two at some point,
and they're gonna play fourteen fifteen games, so it feels
like you're gonna have as many two's as you have zeros.
(10:58):
So but then you look at the previous and there's
lots of years when the second guy didn't have eleven,
And you've got so many tight ends this year that
I think Max Clayer is stealing a touchdown here, and
Will Kes Merrick's stealing a touchdown there, and Bennett Christian
or Jalanie Thurman. You know, these guys are going to
be scoring a bunch of touchdowns through the air. I
(11:22):
think I'm going under, and I would not have thought
that when you were asking the question. I thought, Okay,
this is probably a fairly easy over. But given how
much they're spreading the ball around this year, Jeremiah Smith, Yes,
Jeremiah Smith, my answer is yes for whatever the question is.
(11:43):
Everyone else, I think you're going to spread the ball
around enough, and you're seeing enough different formations, and I
think you're probably going to see a little more Bryce
and Rogers and Milon Graham at some point, and they
are going to start throwing the ball at the bright
to Brandon Innis at some point, and so I think
are going to spread it around enough that he ends
up with more like ten instead of twelve.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
I immediately wanted to go over on this one, and I
think one of the things we need to remember is
perhaps some of the reason he's doing well is because
of all of the attention on Jeremiah Smith. That's not
going to go away. We do know they're gonna open
up the offense in other ways moving forward as everybody
gets more comfortable and receivers get more comfortable to the
young guys, and they decided it's time to get Brandon
(12:29):
Innis involved. I'm still I'm going to go over because
I'm tired of us being cowards on this show. Through
two over unders, I don't think he even you know,
he could have four right now, except he didn't. There
was the one in the red zone that he didn't
come down with because there wasn't as pinpoint as it
(12:49):
normally is from Julian sand So I will say over,
and I do think he'll get to that. Twelve eleven
just seems kind of low.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Frankly, I'm sorry, I just want to be clear on this.
With the audience that we have, you feel that me
saying under on things makes me a Coward's that's what
makes me a coward. With the audience that we have,
who I'm sure are like, I sure hope he says
under a bunch that feels like what our audience is
looking to hear. So, yes, I just want to be clear,
I'm the coward here. I just want to make sure
(13:21):
we're on the same page. There.
Speaker 1 (13:23):
Two things can be true. One, you can be the
coward too. Also, people don't want you jinxing the Buckeyes.
Next one. Julian Saying has already thrown three interceptions this season.
Some would say he is an interception machine, averaging one
interception thrown per game. I am setting the over under
(13:45):
on interceptions for Julian Saying this year at nine point five.
Last year, Will Howard through ten, the four years before that,
from twenty one to twenty two to twenty three, from
twenty twenty one to twenty two, twenty three, maybe even
that whole stretch like every year. Yeah, it was twenty three,
(14:07):
twenty two, twenty one. Sorry, six interceptions thrown by the
starting quarterback. So I'm just taking you know, these three,
and then I'll just add on another six and a
half and say nine point five interceptions. I've I know
where I'm going, based mostly on the fact that two
(14:27):
of these interceptions were flukes and one was just him
getting greedy against Grambling State.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Yeah, so man, I thought you you were winding up,
and I'm like, he's gonna say twelve, and I'm going
to say under, and I'm going to dust my hands
and that's going to be that. And then you said
nine and a half, and I was all right. I
had my whole explanation ready that two of the X
two of the interceptions against Ohio were flukes. One of
them was went to the hit a defensive tackle who
(14:55):
had dropped into coverage and he batted the ball up
in the air and then someone picked it up off
on the caram and then the other one really should
have been a fumble and not a not an interception
because it wouldn't have been an incomplete pass if it
had hit the ground, So why would be a interception then,
So really that one should be corrected. And if you
(15:16):
were gonna say twelve, I'm gonna say that's an easy under.
The problem is those three are banked now, and so
is he gonna throw six interceptions or less over the
last nine regular season games plus potential Big Ten championship
game plus one to four College Football playoff games. That's
(15:38):
a lot. That's asking a lot to have six for
that span of games because you're you're looking at better competition,
you're looking at probably thirteen games. So then you're saying,
can he be as good as C. J. Stroud was
in twenty twenty two? Can he be as good as CJ.
(15:58):
Strod was in twenty twenty one one? That's asking an
awful lot. Will Howard is really good. C. K. Stroutt
did not play fourteen games in either of those season,
by the way, So I'm gonna say he's over that.
I'm gonna say he's between nine and a half and
eleven and a half, so he's you know, he figured
(16:18):
he finishes around ten. I think is probably a good guess,
right around where Will Howard finished last year. Will Howard
had a great season last year. Will Howard took care
of the ball really well for pretty for you know,
the vast, fast, vast majority of an extremely long season,
and he still went over this number. So I'm gonna
say he goes over this number next year, I'll take under.
(16:39):
But this year you got the you got the three
already baked in in two games where you would say, well,
certainly he's not gonna throw an interception in those games,
and then he did. He hasn't had to go on
the road yet. You got the win to Illinois, you
got a bunch of road games and big credit. You
got a bunch of just dumb stuff that's gonna add up.
Lord knows what Jim Knowles has planned for this for
(17:00):
that Ohio State game. I am sure it will be
something new and creative. So yeah, I will go. I
will go over, but only slightly over.
Speaker 1 (17:07):
You gotta figure there's probably an interception against Michigan just
because that's the way things go. But yeah, twenty twenty
twenty three, justin Fields twice, CJ. Stroud, and once calm
Accord all six interceptions over the course of a season.
And right now, that's all we're asking Julian saying to do.
And you're saying, Hey, America, he can't do it. That's
(17:29):
what you are saying. That's interesting, that's interesting. Anyway, let's
move to the defense.
Speaker 2 (17:35):
Now, why did I think I would hate this show?
I'm not sure where I get off.
Speaker 1 (17:41):
So r Vel reach right now, tied for the team
lead with two sacks through three games. Wasn't asked to do,
you know, much against Grambling State because sportsmanship over under
on r Vel Reese sacks this year. I am setting
at nine zero point five. And as you think about this,
(18:03):
I'm going to go back and try to find the
last time an Ohio State linebacker had more than ten sacks,
and you probably have to go back to Ryan Shazier,
or I'd say probably Ryan Shazier.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
So this is one where as you're talking, I've been
just setting the number in my head and I thought,
he you know, he's going to say ten, and then
you said nine and a half and I said, sold,
we are going to take the over on this one,
because yeah, it's very hard for an Ohio State linebacker
to get ten sacks. History has shown that. Is r
vel Reese lining up like an Ohio State linebacker. The
(18:42):
answer is sometimes, but not always. Ohio State Russians have
had lots of sacks over the years, and rvel rees
feels like he's someone who he's going to take a
certain number of snaps lined up as an end, he's
going to take a certain number of steps, line up
in the middle of the line, he's going to be
all over the place, and the way they're moving him around,
he it feels like he is one of the real
(19:04):
featured guys in this year's defense where Matt Patricia is going,
this is a guy I would to I don't want
the defense to know where he is because I don't
want them to be able to block this guy, you know,
line up their their protection specifically to focus on him.
That tells me Matt Patricia thinks this is someone who's
going to be getting home quite a bit this year.
So yeah, to me, I will take the over on that.
(19:26):
I might have even taken the over on ten.
Speaker 1 (19:29):
You know, And I wish I would have looked sooner
because it was it wasn't Ryan Jay's ears. So I
don't know, maybe if it was maybe like an AJ
Hawk in two thousand and five, as I scroll through there,
because I don't think it's gonna have to go all
the way back to Andy katzen Moore in like nineteen
ninety six. But yeah, boy nine and a half for
a J Hawk in two thousand and five, So maybe
(19:52):
maybe you got to go back ten years before that
almost to find somebody. But again, I'm with you, this
isn't just a blitzing linebacker, far from it. And and then
as a spy at times, some of these spies where
you know it's it is a pass and so he's
waiting for the guy to try to escape the pocket
and then he's gonna go get get the quarterback. He
could end up with some sacks there, I will, you know,
(20:16):
sacks and trying to predict sacks never never goes well.
So I will say. I'm gonna say, under m, I don't.
I don't. I don't feel good about it because of
the multi purpose that he has in the defense.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Well, when we're in the witning next Wednesday night, I
just I'm gonna when I point said Arvel, he said,
under I just you know, good luck with that. I
don't know. He looks fast. I don't think you'd be
able to r on him, but you know, we'll see.
Speaker 1 (20:47):
And and the crazy thing is like he already has
he has also a tackle on a quarterback at the
line of scrimmage.
Speaker 2 (20:51):
Yeah what one yard back? It would have been a sack. Yes.
Speaker 1 (20:55):
So, like like I said, I don't feel good about this,
and I'm not using much logic and making this choice,
which is ooh start of my life. I'm gonna stick
with the getting after the quarterback. Ken YadA Jackson no
sacks to this point, right, He's had opportunity. Would you
agree with that? Tom? Yes, I'm going to set the
over under for Kenyada Jackson sacks this season and he
(21:19):
has three in his career at five and a half,
so basically asking him to double his career output in
the next thirteen eleven twelve games. What do you think?
Speaker 2 (21:35):
So this is one where you I have had the
number in my head each time and I thought five
and a half and then you said five and a
half when I thought, well, shoot, that's not good. That's
the number I was thinking. So it feels like that
number is not that high, but he hasn't done it.
And it also, you're only going to have so many sacks.
If you put up forty sacks as a defense over
(21:58):
the course of a year, that's a enormous year. And okay,
we've given a quarter of those already to Arvelle Reese
and Cayden Curry. Feels it feels like they've kind of
found some different creative ways to use Kayden Curry in
that Rushman package. That is probably you know, that probably
takes some away and you figure CJ. Hicks will have
(22:20):
a few and I'm just sort of going through an
allocating sunny styles is going to have a few. Five
and a half feels like a very very well set
line because it's like, will he have five or will
he have six? Because you would have certainly figured against
against Grambling. Certainly he will get a sack against Grambling.
Certainly he'll get a sack against Ohio, and then you
(22:42):
only have to get four more of the rest of
the year. He doesn't have it against Ohio, he doesn't
have against Grambling. So now where do we go with that?
I'll say over just so I'm sort of balancing things out,
But I feel I don't feel remotely strongly about this
one way or another, because, like I said, I think
(23:04):
this number is pretty dead on. I think he finishes
with five or six, and so five and a half
I kind of look at that number and sort of
shrug and go.
Speaker 1 (23:12):
Eh, he could finish with five and a half. You know,
in twenty twenty three, J. T. Twemlowall had five, so
and then the next year he had twelve and a half.
Jack Sawyer was over that five and a half number
in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty four. But they
don't always even have a defensive vent who is over
(23:33):
that number. For me, I'm going to go over because
it's hard to ignore how people were talking about him. Uh,
there will be like some sort of a multi sack
game at some point to you know, to build that number.
So I'm going to go over. I don't think it'll
be over by a lot though.
Speaker 2 (23:55):
Yeah, And I'm just sort of thinking through big ten
offensive lines now, and there are some teams that I've
looked at and thought, that's not great tackle play there.
So you could very easily see you pick up a
game a sacon or half or two sacks in a
game and boom, all of a sudden, you're a quarter
with the way there, a third of the way there.
So yeah, I'll say over, but not not with a
(24:20):
great degree of certainty.
Speaker 1 (24:22):
Well, let me throw something else on there, because right now,
Caden Curry tied with the with ar Val Reese with
two What is a what is a number for him
that would make you like because here here's I'm thinking.
I'm still thinking like six and a half or seven
and a half just because the rotations and the numbers.
(24:42):
I don't necessarily see any of these defensive linemen getting
more than seven or eight sacks this season.
Speaker 2 (24:50):
Right And because I think you're going to see some
of them sort of poached by the linebackers, where the
linebacker unit's gonna end up with more than you traditionally
have seen there because they're using them a little differently
and they're lining up a little differently this year. Cayden Curry,
I would be tempted to say over except it feels
to me like Cayden Curry has more than two sacks.
I looked at I looked at his stats and thought,
(25:13):
is that right? Did they miss a game? What's going on?
Because it feels like he's been so active and so
disruptive and it hasn't necessarily shown up in the stat
sheet there. So yeah, seven seven and a half something
like that is reasonable. And if he has, if he
finishes year with six sacks, that's still a very good year.
That's still a very disruptive year. Because the snaps are
(25:33):
getting spread around more, the lineups, the alignments are changing
so much that I don't know that I can look
at previous years and go, this is what the Ohio
State's top defensive end should have because they're not playing
necessarily quite the same position that they were a couple
of years ago.
Speaker 1 (25:52):
Yeah, and what exactly are they being asked to do?
How much of this is contained and how much of
this is go reek havoc? All right, Tom, I think
we both agree that nobody's gonna get any sacks this
year other than Arvel Reese. Jermaine Matthews, standout cornerback junior
number seven, has one interception on the season. So this
over under this number is Jermaine Matthews total interceptions this season.
(26:18):
And when you start thinking about this, it's like, well,
you know, he's very good. He gets after the ball,
but interceptions are not something that Ohio State does in
big amounts at quarter over the years. So I am
still setting this number, which feels like kind of sizeable
to me at three and a half.
Speaker 2 (26:41):
Yeah. Well, so I'm just going back and looking. When
was the last time an Ohio State defensive player had
even three interceptions in a season?
Speaker 1 (26:52):
Jeff Okudain twenty nineteen, John Wadons.
Speaker 2 (26:57):
Two, Tanna McAllister in twenty twenty two, the last Ohios
player to have more than two interceptions in a season,
And just going back through another one, no one did
it in twenty twenty one. I'm guessing no one did
it in twenty twenty because there were so many fewer games. Nope,
no one did it in twenty twenty. So Tanner, McAllister
(27:20):
and Jeff Okuda, someone who went in the top five
of the NFL draft, and someone who I don't know
where he is now. I think he went to does
he go to the NFL draft after that season and
then undrafted free agent? Undrafted free agent? So yes, So
is Tremaine Matthews either a top five draft pick or
a NFL undrafted free agent A what a combination that is?
(27:44):
I think just based on the total balance of probability
here on how frequently guys have that many interceptions, I'm
going to say under now, all of that was under
a Carry Combs or Jim Noles defense. And you're seeing
a very different they are doing. I mean, if you've
watched the Ross Fulton shows that we've done the last
couple of weeks, they are doing all sorts of stuff
(28:06):
in the back end of the defense, the disguise coverages,
and they're they're putting it on a tee for the quarterback.
Good news, we're in cover three. Jurew would hate it
if you did it through a pass that was you know,
good for beating a cover three coverage and then they
rotate and it's like, nope, we're doing anything but anything
(28:28):
at all other than that, And so they're disguising coverages.
So you figure the might get more interceptions this year.
And the pass rush we keep talking, you know, we
spend we spent a lot of time on the pass
rush and the fact that they're gonna probably get you know,
get a number of sacks because they're skuising things up
front pretty well as well. So I think you're gonna
(28:49):
have a lot of confusion. I think you're gonna see turnovers.
So this is the year where you're probably more likely
to have three interceptions. But it just, i mean, historically
it just really has not happened very often. So the
odds are the yards are the answers. No, So I'm
going to say the answer is no. But you know,
with as much as much as they're doing to confuse
opposing quarterbacks, could four guys have three interceptions this year? Yeah? Absolutely,
(29:12):
Like at this point, at this point, I'm ready to
believe whatever about this year's defense.
Speaker 1 (29:17):
Two and a half just felt low to me. Then
going back and looking twenty sixteen, you both had Marshaun
Lattimore and Gary n Conley both with four interceptions that year,
and we all remember Malie Cooker going off with the
seven interceptions and the three touchdowns, but both Latimore and Condy,
so those are got two first round picks. Do we
think Jabring Matthews could be a first round pick? Of course,
(29:40):
but it's a longer season. I'm probably I'm also going
under just because we there's just such a lack of
cornerback production in terms of interceptions over the years, and
to have to go back to twenty sixteen to be like, yeah,
but look, uh huh right here, I'm proving you wrong.
(30:04):
It's just it's just not sound. But would I be
shocked if he has four interceptions this year? No, Tom,
you probably would be. I would not be shocked.
Speaker 2 (30:13):
I would not be shocked if any of the starting
defensive backs had four interceptions this year. They're not all
going to get four interceptions. But I mean, are you
telling me Caleb Downs can't get four interceptions, or you
telling me Jaylen McClain can't get four interceptions? Davis Nigunosen,
It wouldn't shock me if any of them did, or
if multiple of them had three interceptions. It just it
(30:34):
feels like I kind of want to see it. I
understand intellectually why this year's defense might be better and
might be more prone to producing turnovers like that. I
just I kind of want to see because it hasn't.
You know, they have not had the five turnover game yet.
You know you have not interception. Maybe you know last
time I checked Jaden or who's blaredest quarterbacks? Not Jayden Vershata,
(30:58):
the other one, DJ Lagway dj Lag is not on
the schedule this year. So you know, we'll we'll see.
Maybe maybe you can get that out of out of
someone this year, but you haven't. You haven't seen it
so far, so I'll uh, I'll say, let's let's see
it first.
Speaker 1 (31:13):
Tom wants to see it against the quarterback that isn't
arch Manning understood, understood last defensive quite number for me.
The over under on shutouts the rest of the way out,
I'm gonna just put it at zero point five because
one point five felt too hot. Zero one more shut
(31:33):
out for the defense the rest of the way. What
do you say, Tom, you absolute hater.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
Her Well, I always say you never predict a shutout
because there's so many things that go into that, but
that's on an individual basis for a week. So they
got the shutout that you certainly would have expected against Grambling,
and they gave up about what you would have expected
against Ohio. They were way lower than what you sort
(31:59):
of infected against Texas. And there are some bad offenses
left on this schedule. I mean, I don't I don't
think there's any one game that I look at and
say they will definitely get a shutout in this game.
But Tony, I wish I knew who how to do
the eight clap right now. I wish I remembered how
to do that, because you see La they are walking
(32:21):
through that door and it's not great. We'll see how
what it looks like you post to Sean Foster era,
but they're not great. Rutgers is. Rutgers is better this year,
but you've got you've got teams where you could see it,
and this, you know one when you get into the
college football playoff conversation piece of the year, sometimes you're
(32:43):
looking to make a statement and so you might be
hoping for you might be looking to specifically do that.
So yeah, I will say yes, I will say over
zero point five shutouts in the remaining the remaining season.
Speaker 1 (32:57):
Yeah, and when looking at that number, you don't even
can that are the postseason games because you're not even
thinking about shutouts there.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
Who just came shut out in a college football playoff game? Tony?
Can you imagine such a thing?
Speaker 1 (33:09):
No? No, sure, couldn't do that.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Number one. We were talking about Malie Hooker. Anyway, What
was the last one? You have anything on the special teams?
Speaker 1 (33:17):
I do, actually, but the last thing, like on the shutouts,
Basically it's like Wisconsin, Perdue and Ucla and you're probably
expecting Wisconsin to score at home, so then it's like,
are you gonna shut out both Purdue and Ucla back
to back? Probably not, So I felt like the one
point five would be too high because it would have
to be almost those two guys, those two schools. But
(33:39):
I would go over on the zero point five for sure, Tom.
Last one special teams. We know Ohio State wants this
to happen. We've seen them try it, put it on,
put it out there to get it to happen. The
number is zero point five, and I'm just going Jeremiah
(34:01):
Smith punt return touchdowns. We saw him they put him
out there at midfield, wanting him to get his Heisman moment.
We know that they are trying to They're not gonna
admit it, but a punt return touchdown would go a
long way for a wide receiver who is trying to
win the Heisman, and especially for a head coach who
was trying to help his player win the Heisman. I
(34:24):
am saying zero point five punt return touchdowns. That is
in line. Tom, I'll just let you go. I'll let
you know right now. I'm going over.
Speaker 2 (34:32):
Yeah, I'm going over as well. I think we've seen
enough already where only one guy had two touchdowns against Grambling.
They really spread it out. Jeremiah Smith scored two touchdowns
and Jeremiah Smith scored it to a passing touchdown or
receiving touchdown against Ohio. But they also fed him a
reverse in the red zone at a point where Friday
(34:54):
and need to do that. But you could do that,
and so you put that out. Oh look here, this
will look good on the on a heisman reel. Look,
he can do it in the running game as well.
You saw them put him out there. They had two
guys covering the gunner on the short side. I think
of the field on that one they were it felt
(35:14):
like they're really trying to set that up as a return.
I think they are going to do their very best
to get Jeremiah with at the punt return for a
touchdown this season, and I am going to say that
they will do it. It's something that had not happened
for ten years before Caleb Downs did it last year.
The fact that they put him out there last week
against Ohio in a moment that was not a oh boy,
(35:36):
you really got to do it now. If you don't
do it now the games in jeopardy, that just felt
like it would be great to get him a punt
return touchdown. I think they are going to be able
to do that at some point this year.
Speaker 1 (35:46):
Also, Tom, let's keep in mind we both watched the
Colorado State Washington season opener. Colorado State drew up a
double pass that would have worked perfectly, but the receiver
could not throw it. What kind of arm does Jeremiah
Smith have, because you know the attention is going to
be his way and there would be the opportunity for
(36:06):
somebody to leak out and we don't often get to
see a Heisman moment type of play for wide receiver
being him throwing a touchdown.
Speaker 2 (36:14):
Yeah, and I go back to Eric Crouch catching a touchdown.
That was it. Think about how often you saw that
play during that two thousand and one season that was
on every time they talk about Eric Crouch, you saw
that play. So yeah, I think I think there's a
real possibility they're going to try and get Jeremiah Smith
to score five different ways this season. You know, you
(36:36):
we have have we seen him as a kick returner.
I don't know that we've seen him in return of
this year, So maybe it's only four ways. But you pass,
you run, you throw, and you return a punt. Maybe
he gets a safety. I don't know.
Speaker 1 (36:47):
You're telling me shot again, Packer put him at shot again?
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Yeah, sure, sure, I mean yeah, I think you're gonna
have enough games where you can screw around a little
bit and get a little cute see, and I think
they're gonna I think they will find a way to
do that at some point.
Speaker 1 (37:04):
All right, all right, so we're both going over on
the punt return touchdown for Jeremi Smith, so that will
do it. If you're watching on YouTube, please hit the
thumbs up. We'd appreciate that subscribe to the channel. If
you've not yet done so, I.
Speaker 2 (37:13):
Know a lot of you have.
Speaker 1 (37:14):
We do appreciate that if you have it, you're missing out,
I promise you. Of course you're also missing out if
you are not subscribed to buckeyehuddle dot com. Sign up now.
Say hello to us there on the bucket Huddle message
board presented by Jeffruby's Clumbus. Everybody, have a great weekend,
enjoy the stress free football. Don't let it get to
your head. Just enjoy whatever you get to watch and
(37:34):
then be safe out there. So thank you all for
tuning in, and we'll talk to you all later
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