S4 EP37 I robbed bet 365

This week, I look back at my bets from the weekend's games. I also give my selections for this week's bets as well as stats from last week's games.

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Episode Transcript

(00:01):
You call yourself for me. Youknow you're a lying in low life,
might have fucking gambling, degenerate freak. You know that's what you are.
Well, hello, you degenerate fox, and welcome to the Degenerate Gambler.
It's Thursday, the twenty fifth ofApril. We're just back another episode looking
at last week's bets, given somestats on looking ahead through the weekend where

(00:26):
it is the last game of theseason in League one on League two,
so maybe the last week of statsbecause there won't be that many games this
week because already the National League,Next League North and Next League South are
over, so I may just dothe sort of top four Inlish leagues.
But anyway, so last week's betswere very frustrating. I have four bets

(00:48):
over two days that missed, youknow, basically by their goal or a
card, you know, just basicallyhit the bar. So me and that
was beat by Norwich who drew ithome. That that was strange because I
didn't really get a sweat because ifall the teams had been winning and Norwich
were drawn the cash, it wouldhave been great because it was paying like
two hundred and eighty quit or something. So but The thing was that don

(01:12):
Caster came from two down. Ithink Mansfield the other day came from Yeah,
Mansfield came from one down against Jillingham, Lincoln came from one down against
Chelting him the only team that wasreally winning from the start with Peterborough,
so there wasn't a good case shot. So that was for straight And then

(01:34):
the goals. Bat was really actuallydid well in the first half, had
goals in every game, but theStoke game ended up finishing three now so
the both the score was beat ThenI went on to the City and Chelsea
semi finally the FA Cup bat Builderit was beat back Cole Palmer card.
He did have one or two fouls, but no card. I mean he

(01:59):
is I think he's had like tenbookings this season, so you know he's
one of the favorites every week fora book on Sunday. The bets weren't
great, except for the bat Builderdid in the Liverpool Fulham game. It
was paying one thirty. All theslastions were up except for a third by
Constange. Castange or Castalgee have becomethe right back for right wing back for

(02:20):
Fulham. He didn't really even havethat many things that could have been fairs,
you know. But what was bigon that bet was I had trent
As two to one for a thirdand that was in it. I also
had Jaded score he scored his lastkick. When that happened, I only
needed to save both keeper saved fromAllison on a from Castagna, so I

(02:43):
was fucking really thought of it.It got to save, but just couldn't
get the third. But after thatfrustration, it was good on Monday night
to get a bat up, soI couched there for seventy four quid.
I had for both to score allup, and then Seville scored him with
one up and a couch it becauseI just couldn't take another one off the
bar. You know, Soul's lawas soon as a cash out a few

(03:06):
minutes later, so they'll score andmake it too now and that would have
been up anyway. So but I'mnot going to complain then, so I'm
recording this obviously Thursday. Then yesterdayI managed to get a bat up and
I did get some luck here,so I had a game some both the
scores and I had a draw inthe Wolves and Bournemouth match, and they

(03:29):
scored early in the second half andit was disallowed, so you know,
taking fuck here we'll go again.So I was basically sitting watching Bet three
six five and they scored later on, and I managed to get the cowsh
out done quickly and get the moneyin the May account, and then about
three minutes later it was var disallowed, so you know, I got a

(03:52):
better luck rip the money out ofmay account just in case Bet three sixty
five tried to take it off me. But on there and now and even
still they haven't put me in aminus, so that's good. But I
think it was robbed in that gameanyway, because Wolves the first goal was
just allowed with an absolute disgrace fora fair guy. Bertie touched me his

(04:13):
hand, so I feel like Iwas a bit of justice. Uh So,
like if you if you were onthat, I know some of my
followers were all that and they didn'thave a chance to cash out, so
it was beat. But I wasjust lucky that I was able to get
on and there I was basically sippingmy finger over the button, so you

(04:34):
know, that's that's you know,one hundred and sort of eighty quid in
the last three or four days.I'm so happy enough for that so I'll
get on to the stats. SoI've only done seven Premier League games because
some of them were last night andI wanted this all done and ready to
go, so I hadn't done them. So it seven in the Premier League,

(04:54):
eleven in the Championship, and twelvein every other league totally seventy eight
games. So Premier League was fivefavorites, no draws, two outsiders,
Championship was four draws, four draws, four favorites, three draws, four
outsiders. League won with six favorites, two draws, four outsiders. League
two was eight favorites, one draw, three outsaiders. In the Nation League

(05:17):
it was seven favorites, two draws, three outsiders, and the Nice League
North nine favorites, three draws andno eight sailer. And in the Nice
League South seven favorites, four drawsand one outsider, totaling forty six favorites,
fifteen draws, and seventeen outsiders.So that worked out at fifty two

(05:38):
percent out of seventy eight games offavorites one. I think the look at
there is the Championship was the onlyleague that wasn't If you look at the
league's individually, the only league thatwasn't over fifty percent of favorites winning.
Every other league was fifty percent orof both. So that's that that you
know, if the championship had hadmaybe one or two more, you have

(06:00):
been getting close to sixty percent offavorites winning there So in the overs on
both to score so overs Premier Leaguefive over two not and again five both
to score two not. Championship hadsix over five not and five both to
score six not. League one wasall the six six over six not and

(06:25):
eight both to score four not.League two nain over three not and the
both to score was eight both toscore and four nat nice in the league
was nay over again and three notand seven both to score and five not
nice. League North six over sixnot and only three of those games though,

(06:48):
were both to score and nine one. So that's a lot of three
and four nils and stuff. Inthe nicely League South, eight games were
over two point five and four not. Nine games were both to score and
three you weren't. So in totalforty overs it was forty nine over twenty
nine not, which worked at afifty six percent, and they both to

(07:10):
score forty five both to score thirtythree not which was fifty one percent.
So look at that, you know, all three decent. Fifty percent,
isn't you know you want to bepushing more towards high fifties early sixties.
But still decent there, still decentand I mean even again, every league

(07:32):
was fifty percent or above, whichis which is why for the overs,
which is why you're pushing, youknow, fifty six percent in the booth
to score. The only league thatwasn't over fifty percent or you know it
was five in the Championship. Itwas a eleven games, so you cannot
five and a half. But wasthe nice league North with only three,

(07:55):
So that's dragging that figureway there.But that looking at that, that looks
like, you know, it wasa good of getting a beat up out
there, So that that makes medisappointed that I wasn't able to get one
of those two beats up on Saturday, right getting onto this week, so
two bets and then a quick lookat next week where there's not much on
some Champions League. But I'll getthem at bets. So I'll run through

(08:18):
the mein bat and I'll come backfor the reasons. So Norwich at home
to Swansea thirteen to twenty, Southamptonhome the Stoke hit the eleven, don
Caster away to Jillingham eleven to ten, labor Cuson at home the stuke Guard
four to six and MK Don's athome to Sutton seventeen to twenty and total
that's seventeen to one with a bonuson a page two three. So let's

(08:41):
look at the reasons. So firstteam Norwich, I know they let me
down last week, but they stillneed to get a result to stay in
the playoffs because they're hanging on tothat last spot Holler below them. But
the gold difference is like seven,so they need a seven gold swing,
which you know isn't last day ofthe season, isn't beyond you know,
the realms of possibility. Now,Swansea are in good fun there actually in

(09:05):
better slightly better form than Norwich.But when you look at the home form
for Norwich, they had one forin a row before the last game at
home when they drew to Bristol City, which is the game in salary that
I had. But Swansea away theywin their last game against Huddersfield who are
at the bottom of the league,but before that they had two losses and
two draws in the last four beforethat that win, so to me home

(09:30):
forms should prevail there. Next Southamptonagain Southaughnton can't get automatically promoted, but
still in the playoffs playing Stoke herway down in seventeenth Southaunton and decent four
main points, still got six pointsin the last five, but a game
when we look at home form southout four wins in one draw which was

(09:50):
against Middlesbrough another decent said in thelast five that is, and then Stoke
they've got two wins that drew lost, two wins and a loss, so
not great next to then we gointo League two. Actually before you go
on the League two. The reasonwhy there's no League one games in this
is all the games kept off inLeague One of twelve thirty so there'll probably

(10:11):
be a bad Saturday morning of allLeague one games. So now in the
League two, as I said,Doncaster away at Jilling him Doncaster absolutely,
Flann, you know the best formin the league. Five wins in a
row coming back. I think itcame back from being a goal down or
maybe even two goals down at theweekend and loads of games recently, so

(10:33):
they're flaning playing Jilling them. We'veonly got four points in the last five
so looking at the farm home formJillings forms not bad two wins and three
draws, but Doncaster four wins inan all away from home and they drew
the game before that before do thelabor recasion Moment league too made as well
to MK downs. So MK downscurrently setting fourth, can't make automatic but

(11:01):
playing Sutton who are fighting for allegation, but they need to win to have
any chance of stand up. Sothey go one, they'll down, the
heads will probably drop and they're playingmk onto. As far as home form
goes, they lost their last gameagainst Monster who already promoted, but they
won the four games before that athome and sudden away one draw, two

(11:24):
wins and two defeats. Is therea way for him? Now? The
praise on this I told you seventeento twenty. They're actually up to six
to five now, so I don'tknow maybe the rest of players, and
maybe I should have waited to dothem a bet, but usually like to
get the prices early because they comein. This one's actually going the other
way. I mean, even lookinga both don Casters came into ten the

(11:46):
eleven from eleven to ten, sojust shoogi. So yeah, that's the
bad pay seventeen to one with abonus if you do it on about three
six five of the new labor Cusionsorry lavor Cusion obviously l league champions.
I keep that on beating run playingStuttgart, labor Cusion best home record in

(12:07):
the league one all five at home. Stuttgart looking to be for have four
wins away from home, but lookingat their head to head in the last
two years, labor Cusion always winthe home game. Well, even go
back to twenty twenty, they wonthe last five home games. So that's
my thinking. Now I go onto goals bets. So with two over
two point five, which is RoxomStockport over two point five three to four,

(12:31):
Wimbledon WATSA all over two point fiveseven to ten, Carliff Middlesbrough both
to score get the eleven, AberdeenMotherwell both to score three to four,
and Saint Johnson HBBS both to scorefour to five. That bet is fifteen
to one, paid about eighty quidor so. So yeah, look that's
the two bets. Before I letjust go, I'll look at midweek,

(12:52):
which there isn't much in midway becauseobviously at the end of the season there's
one game in the Championship on Tuesday, but one of the look that here
is the Champions League. So theChampions League games choosing it is barn versus
Madrid, Barnard seven to five,Madrid seven to four. I love that
Madrid price. Wednesday is Dortmund athome to PSG. Dortmund seventeen to ten,

(13:20):
PSG eleven the eighth. I likethat price too. For PSG.
I think we could be seeing inMadrid the PSG final, And to be
honest with you, I make goingthrough because I'm up a few quits.
I make going through ten or fifteen. Quit on that double naw before the
price has changed. A lab sevento four, I like that. That's
probably about six to one, fiveto one, six to one. Together,

(13:45):
you're going nearly a two to oneon a sort of wall and a
half. Then ishm one third,I would say it's about a five to
one. So yeah, look that'sall we're back on in midweek and you
know, never or rock on thenext week sort of the end of the
Championship, and you know, we'vegot some leagues around Europe. The teams
get less so yeah, that's basicallyit for this week. It just leaves

(14:11):
me to say, if you aredoing a bad, good luck, I'm
happy for them. Yeah it's afucking yeah, thanks. Let me find
that you fucked up. I'll leaveyou where right find you.