The UFC Vegas 92 UNDEFEATED Post Weigh In Show

The Anchor survives!!! Patchy Mix did his job and our parlays are alive going into the weekend! Join me as I review UFC Vegas 92 from a betting perspective. Grab your tin foil hat and get in here LIVE!! Lets take one final look at the fighters for UFC St Louis and try to make some money!!

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Episode Transcript

(00:08):
I think you know the game,but you don't understand the world. The
sweat, the pain of these firestands. Couldn't my brain gonna break it
down? Can do the school holdoutside the same? No, Lord and
very USC's the Battle Crown Warriors Come. Die Hard Anime podcast. We won.

(00:38):
It's going to deep beef and alotsies fall from me on the dot
stool. The champions stand in tothe yo. Let your restincts rise,
steel the atrail in rush. It'stime to divide. Die Hard m a
red trail can he's all the madness. Let's make that thing a sh That's

(01:46):
all, says guy stealing the Ship'stime to buy tie on MN A thrill
and all the madness. Let's dandang Happy Friday, degenerous and welcome to

(02:15):
the Undefaded Postway and Show. Weare rocking UFC Vegas ninety two. We're
feeling good after bellatour the anchor comeshome. It was not without just a
little tidbit of a sweat, butwe got the dang thing done. All
the parlayser live going into tomorrow.And if you look at my card and

(02:38):
you're like, damn Clinton, where'dyou get those numbers. I wish I
had those numbers. It looks likeyou're set up to do well at UFC
Vegas ninety two. I'd be like, well, jump in the discord,
baby, Homo Fite Discord. Clickthe link below. You can find all
of my pieces in there. Ifyou missed the tweet, if you missed
the post where I said, hey, I'm playing all the people and I'm

(03:00):
parlaying every single one of them withPATCHI Mix and Bellatoor, I apologize,
but you wouldn't have missed it ifyou were in the home of Fight Discord.
So jump on in. It's free, come hang out. How's everybody
doing in the house? What what'sup everybody? I see you all hanging
out here all ready. Oh mygoodness, sweaty, sweaty. I lost
a couple of pounds today sweating outthat Patchy Mix Fight. I will be

(03:22):
honest with you, guys. I'mwith PATCHI. I didn't expect Maga Metov
to play it that way. Ithink he had a game plan, and
when the game plan wasn't what heexpected, he had to adjust on the
fly. But that's what champions do, and he got the win, and
it was close and I probably laida bad number, but I got the
win. And that's what you guysare always telling me, right, it
only matters if you win. Well, I won today, So shut up,

(03:45):
all right, guys, Let's getinto UFC Vegas ninety two. If
it's your first time here on theUndefeated postway and show. I watched the
weigh ins, I watched the faceoffs, and then after giving you all
of my analysis and information, andafter chatting with my buddies were much sharper
and smarter than me, I putall that info into one package and a
hand it to you, and thenyou can use that information to try and

(04:09):
make good bets. And on thisshow, specifically this show, we are
undefeated. I've never given a badread. I've never given a bad bet.
This show has a one hundred percenthit rate. So you came to
the right place. Let's get righton into it. First fight of the
night, Vanessa Demopolis takes on EmilyDakoty. We've got one sixteen for Vanessa,
one fifteen and a half for Dakody. Vanessa big smile, but I'll

(04:30):
be honest with you, guys,she looked a little rough, face sucked
out, you know, She's gota lot of poundage on her, a
lot of muscle on that frame.She's short, but she's thick. She
looked like she had a bit ofa tough time on the scale today,
but she smiled her way through.It's Emily Dakoty on the other hand,
looking healthy, no issues, strong. I like the glasses. She's got
a good look up there going onthe scales. When these two faced off,

(04:50):
Ducody does have a size advantage.Vanessa went in for the hug.
I love her so much. She'sadorable. Anyway, guys, this is
a spot where I am. I'msitting nice and pretty on Emily d Cody
minus one twenty eight, and ofcourse you're looking at the numbers like Clint,
it's minus three sixty. I toldyou at the top of the show.
Parlaid it with PATCHI Mix. Stickup with me. Here, come

(05:10):
on, you gotta keep up.We're moving quick. So I'm feeling good.
I've got two point five six unitsto win to just need Emily do
Cody to pull that second leg throughfor me. Here parlayed two PATCHI Mix,
by the way, so I've gota lot of money tied to PATCHI
Mix, right, like that wasThe idea was to use him to bring
the numbers down on these favorites thatI think should win, but I don't

(05:34):
know if they cover their numbers onSaturday. The idea was Bella Tor's on
Friday. If Pagi Mix does happento lose, he's not going to He
didn't, but if he did lose, I could rebuild my Saturday card,
right, I could mix and matchsome other parlays. I can play more
props. We can put it allback together. I only track my mma

(05:55):
with you guys, right, Like, this isn't as much as I love
hockey. This isn't a hockey show. Ail my guy Keg on NASCAR every
single Sunday. The Saint a Nascarshow. So like, I'll throw you
guys tidbits every once in a while. When I get like a sharp piece
of information or something. Then Ifeel like I can trust I feel like
I can pass that along to youguys. But I don't tell you everything,
right Like, obviously I'm a degenerate. I play other stuff. I

(06:16):
had so much more money on PatchyMix than you guys realized. I had
so much more on him than youguys have any idea because I parlayed hockey
stuff. I parlayed Nascar stuff becauseI set up all my you know,
UFC parlays and stuff like that,and then my guy Keg what he does
is he parlays up whatever MMA stuffhe likes, and then he ties it
to NASCAR vehicles on Sunday where theodds are shorter than they should be,

(06:41):
so you end up getting crazy likeeighteen and twenty to one's and stuff like
that on the favorite to win thetrack. So like he did the same
thing I did, and also usedpatchy mix. So like my anchor today
was so much more important than itever should have been. You guys have
no idea. I'm extremely relieved Iwas sweating buckets for that fight when it
came onto a split decision. Anyway, back to the fight card here.

(07:02):
I do like Emily Dakoty in thispot, guys, I really do.
I think she's gonna just be toomuch for Vanessa on the feet. Vanessa
is improving in her striking, butEmily Ducoty is much cleaner, much nastier
on the feet, and I actuallythink we could see the return of the
leg kicks for Emily Ducoty. That'ssomething that we've seen from her before,
and she hasn't gone to it inquite some time. If she sticks this
fight at range, keeps it standing. We know Vanessa Demopolis struggles with the

(07:26):
wrestling department. I think Dakoty canchip away at her. And I actually
kind of like the late round TKOprops. You know, round two is
sixteen to one, round three istwenty five to one. You would wish
for a sexier number when it comesto women's mmate, you really would.
But I think the calf kick TKOwhere Vanessa just isn't going to be able
to stand at the end of fifteenminutes, I think that's absolutely there.

(07:46):
While they're at range. The armlength for Vanessa Demopolis is an issue.
She's got little t Rex arm.She's not gonna be able to strike with
Dakoty effectively. She's gonna have toexplode her way in and when she does
that, I really think that she'llbe vulnerable. So as long as this
fight plays out on the feet atrange, and frankly, even if it
does hit the ground, I thinkto Cody will be in dominant position.
Dacoty is not a bad grappler andVanessa can't really wrestle, so Vanessa will

(08:09):
probably need an arm bar of somekind or something like that. And she
always guys, always ends up onher back, like even her last fight
that she somehow managed to rob herway through and squeeze the decision victory.
No idea by the way how shemanaged to do that, but she was
on her back for like eighty percentof round two and round three. So
if that happens to Cody's not lettingher off the hook in this spot,

(08:31):
she'll get busted up. She'll getbloodied up, I like to Cody,
and like I mentioned, maybe alate round finish is on the table.
Next up, Ali Tang Haley takeson Clayton Rodriguez. We got one thirty
six for Ali Tang Haley, ClintonRodriguez one thirty five and a half.
No issues on the scale today forAli tan Halee look very relaxed, calm,
well put together. Neuro FOS oneis neural force one is treating him

(08:52):
well. Over there a fight ready. Clinton Rodriguez actually looked really good.
This kid is filling out out fortyfive pounds. He looked a little bit
bigger. He looked like he wasable to flex, he was relaxed.
This was a very intense face off. Rodriguez came in and like showed him
the elbow got right up in hisface. And then when he stood up
tall, he's big man, ClintonRodriguez has a decent little size advantage here
over how Ala Tang highly in thisspot and it makes me a bit nervous.

(09:16):
So I leaned to Ala Tang beinga dog early in the week,
and I just don't know if Ican get there, Guys, I don't
know. Like he's well rounded enough, he should be able to get through
all the checkboxes right, Like he'sa good wrestler, he's a good striker,
he's got decent jiu jitsu, he'sdurable, He's like, guys,

(09:37):
I really first impulse was may KaliAlatang, the Link Memorial Dog of the
Week. And this is bugging me, guys, this is bugging me because
I don't have a Link Memorial Dogof the Week this week. I'm gonna
have to get one here like onthe show or like tonight after the show.
I like all the favorites on thiscard, I feel like, so
I don't I don't know if I'mbetraying Link by not picking a dog,

(09:58):
or if I'm betraying you guys byyou know, pussying out and not choosing
a dog. I'm not sure whichone is worse, is to like force
it or not to force it inthis case, so I'm struggling. Hiley
Ali Tang was gonna be my dog, but after watching them face off,
I'm like, damn, man,like this kid is gonna be getting better.
I don't know that Hiley Alatang isgetting better. This kid is huge.

(10:18):
He's got the explosiveness. Ala Tang'sgonna have to grind out a fifteen
minute fight. He's gonna have tosurvive the onslought of round one, turn
up the cardio, and then doenough in rounds two and three to tire
this kid out. Sounds to melike a live bet is a better alternative
than playing this one pre flop.If you like Klitson, he could in
this thing in round one. Hecould show us, you know, new
levels to his game, and thiscould be his coming out party at one

(10:41):
thirty five. Because he's not asmall kid for this weight class. So
I'm gonna pick Cleatson Rodriguez to goahead. And win this fight. I'm
rooting for Alan Tang Haley. He'sone of these guys where I wish he
would have better results. I'm afan, like I hope he does well,
but like I just kind of thinkthis might be the end of the
road unfortunately for him. The UFCtrading in a known commodity that struggled at
the UFC level, taking on ayoung kid with a lot of upside and
a bright future. We've seen thisstory before, so I kind of think

(11:05):
Clifton Rodriguez is probably the side,but I still don't really trust his gas
tank. So I'm gonna pass onthis one. Fireball and popcorn, grab
a drink, grab a snack,chill and hang out. Watch this one.
There's probably gonna be violence, maybea live beat opportunity, but I'll
go ahead and pick Rodriguez. Nextup, you've got Arianni Carnilosi. She's
taking on Piero Rodriguez. One fifteenand a half for Carnelosi, one sixteen
for Piero Rodriguez and carnel Loosi.Welcome back, baby thick. As ever,

(11:28):
this chick is, oh my god, you know everybody's uh, by
the way, everybody I started it. Everybody photo shopping the tomorow Uzman belt
arm over the shoulder, but Iwas the first one, by the way
to do that. Ben Davis,fuck you, you stole my meme,
and then everybody used it after that. I think we need to start using
Carnelosi's arm because my god, likethose things are absolutely massive. Now,

(11:54):
Piero Rodriguez all smiles on the scale. She looked good today as well.
Pierre's got the size advantage. Thiswas a very intense stare down Arianni looking
at Pierre the way she would lookat like a fresh cooked steak. And
I guarantee you she's a rare girl. She does not eat medium, rare
or medium. You give her thatthing barely warm and still mooing. I
guarantee you that's how Arion and Carlilosieats her steaks. We've got one plus

(12:18):
one eighty for Carnelosi, minus twoeighteen, minus two twenty for Pierre Rodriguez.
And again I did parlay up PierreRodriguez with my guy PATCHI mix.
I have plus one twelve in mypocket for one unit. This is the
small bet on the slate here forme, just one unit play here on
this one. I like Piero Rodriguez. I think she's gonna have the ground
game advantage. I think she's gonnabe able to get top time. We

(12:39):
all know Carnelosi can get put onher back. She's coming off back surgeries.
Is she gonna be one hundred percentcoming in after all that stuff?
We don't really know. So I'mgonna side with Piero Rodriguez here in this
spot and sneaky little you know playhere. My prop of the week is
gonna be Piero Rodriguez by submission.It's nine to one. And I think
the way that Carnelosi fends from herback, she lays completely flat, you

(13:01):
know, she looks a whole lotlike roblest To Spain did in his last
fight, where just no real knowledgeof getting your guard back or anything like
that. Flat on her back,flat legs, and then she sticks her
elbow up like in her opponent's jawto go ahead and create some space there.
Now, she is strong enough thatthis shit probably works, right,
But if you've ever done jiu jitsufor any amount of time, guys,
if you stick your elbow up likethat, it opens up the pass to

(13:24):
the arm triangle just so, sosimply so, if Pierre Rodriguez knows what
she's doing, and I think shedoes, when she gets to a dominant
position on top, whether it's ayou know, half guard or mount or
something, if she can just squeezeher head to the side of this chick's
arm, that giant muscular shoulder isgonna do the choking for her. Like
it's almost impossible to choke people outwith no neck, but when you've got

(13:46):
like muscles like nothing else up here, you can actually have that be a
negative when you're putting on an armtriangle choke or something like that, because
it's a blood choke. Your body'sgot nowhere to flow your full pumping of
blood, and it's thick and you'repressed against your own coroded arteries and that's
how the choke works. So Ithink the arm triangle is right on the
table here for Rodriguez if she canget to that dominant position. So,

(14:07):
like I mentioned, low low confidenceon this one, I've got plus money
on the side that I think isgoing to win at this stage. I
do not endorse laying minus two hundredon Pierre Rodriguez in this spot. Let
me make that absolutely clear. Ifyou want to piece her up with somebody
else that you're more confident with somewhereon the card, to bring that price

(14:28):
tag down something like that, becausewe think she wins. That's what I
did. I can't say don't dothat, but I think minus two hundred
is probably the wrong price to layon her at this point. So do
with that information what you will.I'm picking Pierre to win. I hate
the minus two to one, butlet's roll hopefully she hits that sub for
us and we're cash in a nineto one ticket regardless. Next up,
you've got Warley Elvis taken on ABIsMagometov one eighty six for Warlely one eighty

(14:52):
five and a half for the bus, and we've got a pudgy one to
eighty five version of Warley Alvis comingup here. Guys. Poor guy,
he's got some extra thickness on himcoming into this one. He already struggled
with like motivation and being in shapefor his fights at one seventy It doesn't
look like that got any better atone hundred and eighty five pounds. ABIs,
however, looks like you chiseled thisguy out of marble. He looks
like a Greek god. He islocked in physique is fantastic, looks great

(15:16):
really at home. At one hundredand eighty five pounds. ABIs notably larger,
but I will say Alvis wasn't outof place. I really thought that
ABIs was gonna like tower over him, and there was gonna be like a
distinct difference between their sizes in thisspot with with Worley Alvis coming up,
But it actually was like, okay, like Warley Alvis a big, a

(15:37):
little bit of a big boy,all right, Okay, so Abus is
bigger. For sure, we gotthat size advantage, but it's not what
I was hoping it would be.I do like ABIs in this spot.
I do think he's going to makepretty quick work of Warley Alvis. Alvis
has been like an early round busttype of guy. He'll come at you
hard, and if he doesn't getyou out of there in two or three
minutes, he goes full Bob Sap. He'll just curl up and call it
a day. I don't think that'sgonna work against Davis is a guy that,

(16:00):
even though we have seen the cardioissues be a little bit of a
problem for him, that's against thebiggest cardio machine in the division in Shawn
Strickland. That's not Worley Alvis.If Worley's improved his cardio just like a
little bit and he can like hangout and fight for fifteen minutes, that's
not gonna push Abus enough to makehim tire. So when Alvis starts to
slow, I think ABIs is stilljust gonna be the better guy, and

(16:22):
he'll just still be there. Sothis is another spot where I've parlayed up.
I've got ABIs Magametov at minus oneeighteen two point three six units to
win two on him. I dolike the Ko, he definitely could have
some grappling upside in this spot aswell, especially if he doesn't want to
get touched in the face. SoI would do the do look at the
inside the distance instead of just playinglike the Ko at what minus one ten

(16:44):
or something like that. If theinside the distance is like minus one forty,
lay the extra chalk, make sureyou're covering yourself on the sub because
it's definitely a possibility. ABIs isa guy that can fight on the ground
as well as on the feet.Don't count him out. It's not just
the puncher's chance that he has herein this spot, Melissa Gatto takes on
Tomorrow's fidal In this spot, Gottowon thirty four and a half. No
issues for her. She always makesme feel like she had like a real

(17:07):
tough weight cut. She always makesme feel like, you know, her
color makes it look like she's likedrained of her fluids in her life blood
up there. But I think she'sjust she's just a little gaunt, like
all the time. She's like pastywhite and a little bit yellow, and
that's just how she looks, Sowe got to get used to that.
Tomorrow's Fidell came in at one thirtyfour and a half, which was a
little surprising and also surprising looked alittle slimmer. I mean, I compared

(17:30):
this girl partially comedically to Derek Lewis, right the way she fights, the
way her style, the way shecarries the power like, I think she's
very much female Derek Lewis, Butshe also had a little bit of pudge
to her right the way that Derekdoes. It looks like she's in better
shape here for this fight. Itlooks like she's lost a little bit of
that flap and This was a veryintense face off. But again, color

(17:53):
me surprised because Melissa Gatto was actuallythe bigger of the two fighters. She's
coming up from one twenty five tofight at one thirty five in this spot,
and I wanted to use vdalas mydog of the week. You know,
they opened up this line at Pickham'sand everyone piled in hand over fist.
Could not get enough of Melissa Gottoon this spot. She climbed all
the way up to being a minusfour hundred favorite in this spot. And

(18:15):
now finally there's been like a littlebit of buyback, but Goto's still minus
three twenty five. You can getplus two sixty on tomorrow's feet now,
and v Dala's a finisher. Guyslike, she's big, she's strong,
she's got flying knees, she's gotankle locks, and he looks she can
find her way to a finish.However, she is pretty much out technicled
everywhere in this spot. Gotto isthe better fighter in every aspect of MMA.

(18:41):
I wanted to see a physicality advantage. I wanted to see Vidal towering
over Goto and just being bigger thanher, because if she's big and Muscly
and well not Muscley obviously, butif she's big and she's strong and she's
thick, and Gotto's gonna have ahard time dragging her to the ground,
That's what I wanted to see,to pull the trigger and take a dog

(19:03):
shot here on Videll, I didn'tget that, got those huge like,
how does she make one twenty five? Dear god, she's bigger than this
one thirty five girl, So Ijust have to stay away in this bot,
guys, I would probably take Gattoas far as like, if this
was still a pick them the peoplethat got in super early and got the
minus one ten, congratulations, youguys are probably on the right side there.

(19:23):
You beat the line moved by amile, obviously, but it's dogger
pass At this point. I can'tin good conscious lay minus three hundred in
a women's MMA fight. We've seenhow this happens in the past, and
especially with tomorrow's Videll having that quicktwitch finishing ability that's something a lot of
women don't have, So I wouldnot be at all surprised if Fidell managed

(19:44):
to clip her with something. Imean, the knockout is like fourteen fifteen
to one for tomorrow's Fidal and that'sthe way she wins this fight, if
she's gonna win this fight at all. Ever, it's a flying knee,
It's it's something crazy, you knowwhat I mean. So I think you
could hedge a lot by taking Vanalinside the distance servedl Ko if you're worried
about it. But I got apick Gatto. I don't like it,

(20:06):
and I'm robbed of another option forDog of the Week unfortunately. Next up
we've got Umar C taking on TucoTokos in a fight with two UFC debutants.
Two six for se two five anda half for Tokos. C needed
the box of shame today. Helooked rough, I'll be honest. He
looked a little bit rough, buthe was very calm, kept his gaze
steady, and his opponent rocking thesunglasses cardinal rule breaker here on your UFC

(20:26):
debut, buddy, But he's gota solid beard that kind of makes up
for it. He looked fine,He's okay. Size advantage goes to see.
This was a very good face off. See is a minus five hundred
favorite, And guys, I gottatell you, I'm sorry. I have
not had the time to look intoTokos. This has been a bit of
a crazy week for me. It'sbeen a bit of a shit can over
here, so I have not hadthe chance to look into this one as

(20:48):
much as I would like to.But it looks like Se is the guy
that the UFC is trying to makea big deal out of. Right,
He's had a couple of good,solid matchups and both those fighters pulled out.
Now they're just pulling a guy offthe couch to get him in here,
to make sure he still on thecard somehow like he should win.
Right. I'm gonna do my research, but I like the game of See.
I don't know anything about Tocos,so I'm not sure how it will
affect him. But I would say, you know, just again, going

(21:11):
based off what I've seen from Sea, he probably takes him down. He
probably armlocks his or like a Kabeepstyle lockdown, right grabs the wrist and
keeps him in place, and thenjust pounds the shit out of him.
That's what Se does, So I'mexpecting probably a See early TKO that kind
of thing. But again, Idon't want to short change Tocos without really
looking into it, so we'll skipover that one. I have no action
on that fight at this point.Victor Martinez takes on Tom Nolan up next,

(21:33):
Martinez one fifty six. Nolan wonfifty five and a half. Martinez.
Whoo, he's doing that like one, I half shut thing like you
when people have like a real toughweightcut, you can see it in their
faces. And this guy looked likehe had a real hard weightcut, which
is weird because he's small for theweight class. Tom Nolan, he gave
that skinny flex guy look great onthe scale, look good, no problems

(21:56):
here. And Nolan is massive,guys, he is so freaking big.
These guys look like they're two weightclasses apart. Like when they face off.
Nolan is towering over this man.And this is the guy for those
of you who don't remember that gotkaoed in his last fight and torqued on
in the UFC. He's not UFCcaliber. In my opinion, I don't

(22:17):
like Victor Martinez. Tom Nolan Ithink is young, he's improving, he's
got some upside, and he's gotthe frame. That's a guy that I
am leaning towards here in this spot. He is another anchored parlay piece here.
I got minus one fifty four onepoint five four units to win one,
so again, just you know,smaller bet just to win one unit
on this one, because I don'tfully trust Tom Nolan yet at this point.

(22:37):
But if you're getting kaoed the wayVictor Martinez did in his last fight,
I think someone like Nolan, whois longer, rangier and has those
massive body kicks. The way thisguy kicks from the outside is full.
It sounds like you're just taking abaseball bat to a rack of ribs.
I think he's gonna get him.I think Nolan is gonna knock Martinez out.
Now if Martinez gets in close anddoes the same thing, does the

(22:59):
same thing to Nolan that was onhis last fight, Okay, well we'll
drop the one point five units andwe'll never bet No One again. It
will just be done with it.But I do think that Nolan probably gets
back on track in this spot,and I think Martinez probably gets his walking
papers unless he tries to cut downto one hundred and forty five. Hey,
shout out our guy, Andrewim superBook Sports. Looks like there's some
decent line movement here. They putsee at minus three point thirty and he's

(23:21):
sitting at minus five point fifteen outover at Super Book Sports. So shout
out my guy, thank you forbeing here live, thank you for dropping
nuggets for the gamblers here in thechap. My man, you guys,
make sure you go support our guy. He's he's doing the Lord's work over
here, trying to help us pourlittle betters out. So good good work
there, all right. Next up, Angie Hill takes on the Wana Pinero.
Angela Hill won fifty five and ahalf pinero one. I'm sorry,

(23:44):
one fifty five geez one fifteen anda half one sixteen for the Wana Pinero.
No problem for Angela Hill. Shelooked great on the scales today.
She's a vet at this point.Guy, she's got this thing down,
looking good, in good shape.Good to go, Lulana Pinero. Last
away in today, I thought wemight get a little drama at the bell
here on this one. She lookedrough, guys. And I mean,

(24:04):
for one of these fighters that theUFC is trying to put in is like
a pretty face and a pretty goodfighter type of thing, like shut up
my guy in may locker room.My bad. Oh, So if the
UFC is putting her in that kindof a spot, Like you could tell
on her face that she was ina bad spot. She looked really sucked

(24:25):
out, she looked exhausted up there. She managed to flash a little smile
before she got off the scale,but you could tell. And this is
the spot, guys, by theway, that I'm not a fan of
Luana Panero, Like I've never beena fan of Luana Panero. I think
she's mentally weak, and I thinkthat she has broken in the UFC twice
already. She got away with itonce, she did not get away with
it the second time, and Ifeel like the scales may have beat her
here today. Hill does have aslight height advantage here in this spot.

(24:48):
But this was like your classic bubblywomen's mma, respectful type of face off.
They stared at each other mean forlike two seconds, and then it
was all smiles and hugs after that, so you know, no bad blood
or anything like that. I likethis advantage for Hill. I like the
activity advantage for Hill. I liketo never say die advantage for Hill.
If you're going heart for heart,Hill beats this girl and should be a
minus three hundred favorite now skill forskill. That's where things get a little

(25:11):
bit different. A Luana Pinero probablyhas the skill advantage, but I don't
like her cardio. The fact thatshe can only last for about a round
and a half before she really fadesoff is a problem to me. And
the way we've seen Angela Hill justpardon me, tank damage. I don't
think it's gonna be a problem forto get through that first round blitz of
Lana Pinero. And then when Hilldoesn't die and go away, Pinero's gonna

(25:34):
have to deal with a multi specialistthat just doesn't stop coming forward. Now,
does Hill press the gas hard enoughto get her out of there?
That is the question because I kindof like the Angie Hill round three sprinkle.
We are looking at Angela Hill roundthree twenty two to one. Guys,
I feel like that's almost mandatory,like when you when Luana Pinero fights,
you take a round three sprinkle.I actually think that's something we need

(25:56):
to do, like always, becauseif she gets that far, it's going
to be an issue. Now,she could win this fight early. She
could get Angie Hill to the ground, she could put that judo to work.
But I think Angela Hill will getback up I think angel Hill's submission
defense is not what it used tobe. She's much better, much improved,
and I think she'll make this intoa fight. It could be a
split decision, so LAYG minus oneforty five might be the wrong price.

(26:18):
But at the end of the day, I think Angela Hill gets her hand
raised. And I think Lana Pineromight be just a little bit of a
front runner and a little bit ofa fraud. She's also a little well
and not maybe so much of afraud. She's got a good skill set.
Don't get me wrong, but Ido think that Pinero is breakable,
and someone like Hill can break you. You know, there's nothing that hurts
worse than when you're tired and thenyou get hit with like a clinch knee

(26:38):
of the face in the third roundof a fight where you feel like you're
fading and it's one one going tothe judges' scorecards. Like, That's what
I'm trying to take advantage of here, So I am on Angie Hill.
Let's freaking go Overkill. By theway, best best gaming reference of all
time is when you get the overkilland Halo three and OVERCOO. Like I've

(26:59):
always loved Angela Hill because of thatbrings me back to the good old days,
all right. Next up, Venezia, Salvador takes on Adrian Yenz and
I'm trying to correctly say that becauseI've been saying it wrong like everybody else
forever. One thirty six for Salvador, one thirty six on the dot for
Ginnez. And we've got a big, tall, lanky dude in Venezia.
Salvador. No real problems for himon the scale today. He shaved his

(27:21):
head though, looks a lot betterwith the hair. Good hair choices today,
Uncle WEEZI would be proud. We'vegot Adrian Yanez, smile and flex
looking, good looking, solid dudelooks I'm jealous of the hair. He
went to Turkey before I could getthere, so I'm just kidding, Adrian,
your hair is probably very natural.Salvador does have a height advantage here
in this spot, but it's notnearly as pronounced as I expected, Similarly

(27:41):
to what we talked about before,except on the flip side, right,
I thought that Adrian was gonna bemuch smaller when facing off against this tall,
lanky dude, but it's not thatbig of a size difference. So
I like to see that Salvador ismoving up a weight class, I believe
here in this spot. So whoknows, Maybe he'll be a lot better
up here, Maybe his cardial willbe better, maybe the power translates and

(28:02):
he hits harder. But again,I've protected myself. I am not laying
the ridiculous minus four to twenty fiveon Adrian coming off of back to back
losses. I've parlayed him with patchymix and he is minus one thirty three
for yours. Truly, I've gottwo point sixty six units to win two
on Adrian Jenez here in this spot, and I like it a lot,
guys. Frankly, I think Jenzprobably goes ahead and gets the finish.

(28:27):
I really do, because the waythat Salvador fights, he keeps his hands
low and he just doesn't have agood enough head in the movement to get
out of the way of stuff hetries. But he's not fast enough and
moving up away class. I mean, maybe he's got a speed advantage coming
up from one to twenty five,but I would highly doubt it. The
way that adriancounters, with how quickhis hands move, I think it's gonna

(28:48):
be a problem. He's gonna bethere to get hit. So as long
as Adrian can hold up one ortwo big shots from Venezia Salvador, and
this isn't like a round one bonk, because it could be, you know,
as long as he survives that,I think it's gonna be Adrian's game.
If he slows the pace down waitsfor Venetius to make a mistake,
that countershot is going to be there. It's just just a matter of time.
So I fully expect Adriam to getback on track. I feel like

(29:08):
this is a bit of a softballfrom the UFC to get the kid a
win. Get back in the win, call him, get your confidence back.
Let's get rolling again. Come on, Adrian. Everybody wants to see
a du well kid get in there. All right. Next up, we've
got Remis. Brought him my takingon Timba Gorimbo uh one seventy and a
half for both guys on the scalestoday, Remis actually looked really good,

(29:30):
guys. I mean, for aguy that's coming off like a two year
layoff and hasn't competed and is comingoff like career ending injuries, he looked
great. He looked really good.Looks like he's in good shape for this
one. THEMBA hands on the hipsup there, smiling, talking, seemed
like he was a dialed in liketalking to himself almost more than talking to
anybody up there. I think he'spumping himself up. This guy has that

(29:51):
that ridiculous self belief. This guyhas that belief that he's going to be
a UFC champion so deeply ingrained intohim that like it's starting to scare me,
Like I'm starting to believe him alittle bit, because he pulled the
Mollie meatball right where he took theUFC belt and started like parading around taking
pictures with it and shit like that, And I'm like, bad sign,
bad juju. Anybody that's ever donethat, it's never worked out. And

(30:14):
I mean not counting like McGregor's stealingit from Aldo at the presser. That's
a completely different situation. This guyjust like walking around with it and taking
photo ops and stuff like that.Like bad look right, it never ends
well. But the way he's goinglike he's improving, and he's improving rapidly
and he's a freak athlete and he'sgot cardio for days and he hits really
freaking hard and he's big. Guys, this is another one that shocked me.

(30:36):
I thought these two were gonna bemuch closer in stature, Theimba's massive,
big size difference between these two.Now, Remiz is a guy that
I looked at very closely at maybebeing the dog of the week. We've
got a weird story going into thisone, right because I parlayed Rob Bliss
last week a Robellus with Thimba thisweek, and it gave me a slight
plus money and it was like,hey, I think both these guys win.

(30:56):
Maybe the numbers are bad, butI think they both win. Right
Well, Robellus obviously loses, soI don't have a bet on this fight
at this point. And I kindof talked myself into maybe the Rami's side
on this one watching him grapple,watching how slick and smooth he was in
his last couple of fights. Butthen you dig a little bit deeper into
it and it's like, you knowwhat, My first instinct was that Timba's

(31:17):
going to be too much for thisguy, and then you go back and
you run it and it's like,man, Remiz gases out if he doesn't
get a first round sub he's vulnerablein rounds two and rounds three. Yes,
Timba is a little unorthodox. Yes, he's a little unpolished. But
he will explode out of spots,and he will scramble, and he will
fight to the death, and hewill do whatever it takes to get his

(31:38):
hand raised. And on top ofthat, his coach's mom just died or
something like that. I can't rememberif his coach's mom or his coach.
I first read that it was hiscoach, but I think that tweet got
deleted because I think it was hiscoach's mom. So he's dealing with like
a grief situation. And I've talkedabout it before, Guys, when you
deal with adversity like that, whenyou deal with grief like that, react

(32:00):
one of two ways. And oneit's detrimental where you can't focus, you
can't see straight, you can't youcan't fight the way that you should because
your mind is elsewhere. And we'veseen fighters get into the UFC like that.
And then there's other people who useit like a freaking sale on their
ship, and they use that tolike fill their emotion and they use it

(32:22):
and it's a weapon and it's aguiding tool. And I think that's what
Timba is doing. Like he's talkingabout avenging this man's mom, and he's
talking about winning for his coaches,And if you guys know the story of
THEMBA, his coaches and the peoplethat have supported him have like rescued him
from poverty to give him the opportunityto fight for the UFC. And that's

(32:42):
the kind of thing where I'm going. Look, if I'm teetering, and
I kind of think this guy's winningalready. Now he's got this extra surge,
and I know he's got better cardio, and I know he hits harder.
I know he's stronger, I knowhe's bigger, and I think he
just on it more. Those arethe kinds of things that will push me
over the edge, are those x'sand o's. Now, No, I

(33:05):
can't pull up a stat sheet andtell you that he deserves to be that
much better of a favorite because ofthose types of items. But those are
the types of emotional things that Ilook for that I want to bet on.
And I'm a degenerate, so youdon't necessarily have to do what I
do. But I know what I'mdoing, guys. I had a parlay
set up with them, but anchorit and it was slight plus money.
We've got Remis getting absolutely pounded.He was like a plus one eighty underdog.

(33:29):
He might have been all the wayup to like plus two hundred at
one point. He's now plus onetwenty four. He crashed this line so
hard. So many people just pilingin on the Romis side of things.
But I think he's round one subor bust if he doesn't get this thing
to the ground and early. Ijust don't believe he'll be able to keep
up with THEMBA. And we've seenwhat this looks like. Actually, just

(33:51):
a couple of weeks ago, whenmy guy JSP guys, I bet on
JSPN full confidence, knowing damn wellthat he was a better grappler than his
opponent in his last fight, anduh, that didn't work out well because
what happened was David Onama wanted itmore and he had one or two tricks
in his bag, but he explodedover and over and over again. He

(34:15):
abused those one or two tricks thathe had, and he was too much
physically and he had too much inthe gas tank and he wanted it more,
and even though he wasn't technically thebetter fighter, he won. I
think that's what's going to happen inthis spot. And I think I'm gonna
find my way to with Mbagarembo beforetoo long here, because another thing just
market stuff. Again, I'm notthe market guy, right, And I
know I'm going along on this one, guys, but this is like all

(34:37):
the pieces falling into the puzzle here, and I want to give you everything
on this one. The last pieceof the puzzle here for me is the
market stuff. And again I'm notthe best market reader on the planet,
right. I got to tip mycap to guys like Liam for that.
But this line crashed from like minustwo fifty to about minus one twenty five
minus one thirty somewhere in that ballpark. They did not let it flip.

(35:00):
Money came in on Timba at theend, and now he's minus one forty
five minus one forty eight. Soit kind of like bottomed out. And
usually when I really believe in likethat's the right side, the money and
the support causes that betting line toflip. They eventually would make Remai's brahamage
the favorite. They didn't do that. Somebody came in and went too much

(35:22):
and sent it back the other way, and it was respected enough for the
bookmakers to move that number back upa little bit. So I think Timbo
was the right side all along.I'm believing in the Themba story. We're
gonna go down with the ship here. If he gets tapped out in the
first round, so be it.After the show, I will be placing
a bet on Themba Garembo and Ido not have a Dog of the Week

(35:44):
in this spot for you guys yetagain. Next up, Carlston Harris takes
on Chaos Williams in the Comain event. Won sixty nine and a half for
Harris, won seventy on the dotfor my guy Chaos. Big smiles from
Carlston Harris flashing the elbow up thereon the scale. Dude, look good
abs for days now. Kallos Williamsagain. He broke that rule, folks.
He broke the rule sunglasses. Buthe's too damn cool. There's some

(36:06):
guys that just if you're fucking cool, it's like, that's my rule.
But I gotta give you a slide. I have to. He's in great
shape, give a solid flex lookfantastic up there. Carlston Harris, keeping
the distance from Chaos, stuck thatelbow in his face and this was a
really good face off. Guys.Chaos is always intense, always intense.
Harris is taller and longer, butI believe that Chaos has the striking advantage.

(36:30):
This line has moved against me alittle bit, which makes me a
little nervous. Minus one thirty fiveon Chaos, Williams is what I am
sitting on. There's no parlay here. This one's close to a pickum.
You guys can play this one withoutlinking him to patchy mix, and I'm
just having to ride this one out. I'm a little nervous. I see
the grappling upside for a guy likeCarlston Harris. He's also got those big
old clubbing myths that he can clipanybody on the feet and wobble them a

(36:52):
little bit, and then once you'renot quite one hundred percent, if you're
either tired or you're rocked, you'resitting duck for a submission. Actually a
guy that's as nasty as Carlston Harris, So I do think there is a
chance for like the club and suband I'm on the wrong side in this
spot. But I think Chaos isthe more intelligent fighter. I like his
game better. I believe that he'smade improvement striking. He'll be able to
win the minutes on the feet inthis spot, and he's got more power.

(37:15):
If he wants to sit down onhis punches and he wants to go
back to that death touch, Ithink he's got the ability to do that.
So I like Chaos. Williams againnervous, don't feel great about it.
Number moved against me, but itis what it is. I'm in
here. Let's get Chaos back ontrack, baby, and it's time for
your main events. Everybody. Hey, we got over five hundred live viewers,
which I think might actually be anundefeated boshway in schol record. Thank

(37:37):
you all so much for being here. Do me a favor and hit the
like button. If you guys arenew to Home and Fight, jump in
the discord again. It's free.There is a paid version if you want
the paid pros pick stuff like that, but if you want my stuff,
it isn't the free version of it. And we have a telegram now,
guys. I didn't know this didyou know this, People actually really enjoy
using telegram. It's a thing sopeople get news and shit like that and

(38:01):
sports betting picks and stuff like thatfrom telegram. Well, the Home of
Fight has a telegram. I'm gonnaget you guys a link. I will
edit the video after it's done,and I'll put it in the description so
you guys can join it. They'redoing like news for like the MMA World
postings in there, and we've alreadygot over one thousand people that have joined
the telegram. So if you guyswant to jump in that, we will
go ahead and add that to thedescription a little bit later. Come in

(38:22):
here, come hang out. It'sa great community. It's a good place
to be and you get all mystuff, especially in the discord and stuff
like that. Moving forward, allright, main event time, Edson Barbosa
takes on laur Murphy. Barbosa comesin at one forty five and a half.
Loroan Murphy won forty six. Barbosapractically limping to the scales today,
guys, I mean, holy crap, we have called this guy the Brazilian

(38:42):
balloon before. Right. He issucked out so badly. I have no
idea how he keeps doing it.I don't understand, and then Loro and
Murphy comes up there just shred it, just absolutely shredded. Huge flex He's
intense, he's ready for his bigmoment, right, big opportunity for him
finally backing through getting a big notablename Maine Eventing. This guy could break

(39:02):
into the rankings. He's excited,he's pumped up. These two sides up
really well. The only problem isEdson Barbosa is like hunched and like sucked
out and like he looks like askeleton. So when he inflates like the
Brazilian balloons do, he's gonna behuge. He'll have a size advantage in
the cage on Saturday, I promiseyou, because once his his spine is

(39:23):
straightened back out with a little bitof fluid in it, he's gonna be
taller. But both these guys wereflexing hard up there. This is such
a fun fight. Guys. We'vegot the roan Murphy minus one fifty,
Ed's in Barbosa plus one twenty five. And I think I ever so slightly
lean on the Barbosa side. ButI feel like I don't want to bet

(39:46):
this fight. So here's my problem. The Roan. Murphy is hittable.
We have seen him cracked by somelower level competition. Now that's not to
say he's not elite. That's notto say he want tank it. That's
fine, he's done it before.He just continues to grind and he mixes
up his MMA game really well,makes you grapple, makes you strike,

(40:06):
all of it. I love LaronMurphy. I've been on this guy almost
every single fight since he got tothe UFC. I've made tons of money
on him. He's one of mygood ones. But this is such a
leap up and competition for him.It's a big step up. And even
though Barbosa's old, and even thoughthis weight cut sucks, and even though
I worry about his his durability,especially coming off the beating the absolute war

(40:29):
he was in just like five sixmonths ago, if he connects with the
type of shots that we've seen Laroneeat because of those defensive liabilities, I
don't know if Murphy is taking thoseshots, guys, I don't. It's
concerning to me. I side withviolence in this spot. Guys, you

(40:51):
can get fight doesn't go the distanceat minus one twenty, and I like
that a whole lot better than pickinga side, because I think if Barbosa
is finally old, if Father Timehas beaten him, if all the time's
getting his hand raised tomorrow, Laron'sgonna finish him. Lroon's gonna hit him
with something big and it'll be toomuch, or he's gonna just grind him
to the point that he's too tiredto defend himself, and there might be

(41:12):
like a mercy stoppage from the refbecause he's had to get up from getting
taken down seven eight times and it'sround three and he can't get up anymore
and he's eating elbows. Like Ican see Murphy getting a finish in this
spot just because of the way theyfight, and obviously Ed's in Barboza if
he wins. I know he wona decision last time, but if he
lands those kinds of shots here againstMurphy, Murphy's been durable to this point,
guys, but I don't know ifhe's eating Barbosa shots right, Like

(41:36):
there's a big difference between Kalibo shotsand Barboso shots. I don't know if
Murphy is eating Barbosa shots for twentyfive straight minutes. So if Barbosa Lands.
I think it's over. I thinkKo is fine on both sides of
this thing. I mean, youcould always argue for the submission, right
go contrari into everybody else. ButI think these guys both like to work
with their hands. Unless they justabsolutely have a golden opportunity to snatch and

(42:00):
neck, I don't see it.So I'm thinking a knockout one way or
the other. Fight doesn't go thedistances minus one twenty. I'm probably gonna
add that to my official card becauseI like violence here in this fight.
But the real problem, the realproblem is I don't have a dog of
the week, as I don't havea dog of the week for you,
because I don't want Roumis. IfI was gonna bet him, it would
have been some time ago when hewas one eighty plus two hundred something like

(42:23):
that. I don't want plus onetwenty five. I'm gonna bet THEMBA after
it's all said and done. I'malready on Chaos Williams, so I'm not
betting Harris. I've got Yanez,I've got Hill, I've got Nolan,
I've got Magametov, I've got Rodriguez. So if we're looking for a dog
of the week. It's either alTang Hali, which after the weighans,

(42:44):
I don't think I can stomach.He was on the short list, he
was the guy I was gonna doit, but I can't. I can't
do it, not after seeing Rodriguezon the scale today. Toko's not a
chance. I think the UFC wantsto see Omar Si really succeed here in
this spot. Vidal, that's like, that's the one I had kind of
circled. I wanted to see herbe in better shape. I wanted to

(43:07):
see her be bigger. I'm worriedGoda might let that one, you know,
slip away. I'm on hill,so it can't be Pinero. I
wouldn't want to bet Pianero anyway.Yeah, so it's either Barbosa or Vidal
or Alatang. Do you guys havean opinion? Dixonsider says Brazilian lesbians is

(43:29):
plus ev in the UFC. Thatis a fact, my friend. That's
not like, I know we're joking, but that is that is a fact.
That's not even that's not even joking. They're so good. Let's see
here, let's see. Come on, all right, guy, Come on,
get get in, get in thechat here for me. What do
you think who's the dog of theweek. Give me some feedback here because
I can't. I can't leave ushanging right like, we can't not have

(43:51):
a dog of the week. Thoseare probably my options here, Alatang Haley,
tomorrow's Vidal or Barbosa. We'll seewhat the chat says. We'll see
what the chat says. We'll letthe chat decide this one. There's a
lag here by the way on Streamyard, there's a there's a little bit of
lag. So give me just aminute. I gotta let the chat catch
up here. Early votes here forHelee, Barbosa, Barbosa, carne Losi,

(44:16):
Barbosa, keep them coming. Ineed a few more votes Barbosa.
Okay, all right, the peoplehave spoken, ladies and gentlemen. Uh
you know, my my new friend. Just when Baby is absolutely going to

(44:38):
be disappointed in me, but thepeople have spoken. The link Memorial Dog
of the Week is gonna be EdsonBarbosa this week. Gotta do it.
We're gonna go Edson Barbosa on themoney line and then we're gonna go fight
does not go the distance that's gonnabe our way of playing it, because

(44:59):
if Edson gets finished, we willbreak even on the project. And if
Edson wins, I expect it tobe a finish anyway, so we can
double up on it and we'll cashboth bets hopefully. So there you have
it. We got it. Weabsolutely got it. Edson Barbosa is gonna
be the Link Memorial dog of theweek. I'll add that bet, I
will add the under, we willadd THEMBA, and then we will rock

(45:22):
from there. Thank you all somuch for being here with me today.
I am pumped up. I believethis fight card starts a little bit early
tomorrow, so you probably want toget your action locked in earlier if you
can. But it's a low levelcard, there's probably gonna be some surprises.
I will let you know if Ifind any other prop shots that I
like. I'll dig into that tonightbefore I post my card up, probably

(45:44):
first thing tomorrow morning. But thankyou all for being here doing me a
favor and smash the like button onyour way out. Does anybody else have
any other stupid questions for me tonight? Thank you have a good night.
Bat'll do it. Let's roll everybodylove you guys. We'll see you tomorrow.