* Cynthia Frelund, Analytics Expert for NFL Network

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Jack Eblin with my good friend Matt Sloan at graph
of Okamist. Matt, You've got some terrific incentives coming up.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
That's right, Jack, we got some awesome holiday news for you.
If you're looking for a Nissan, come check out the
Pathfinder and Morano, both offering zero percent financing. If you
want to take a look at a Chevy, we have
our red Take sale going on our top three sellers
zero percent on the Equinox, Silverado, and Trailblazer. Come on
and take a look.

Speaker 1 (00:26):
Sounds like a great Christmas present for you. Stopacy, Matt
and the Gang and grap of ookmist they're making friends.

Speaker 3 (00:41):
Welcome back.

Speaker 1 (00:42):
It is a drive with Jack the Spotlight a radio network,
Jack Eblin here with my producer of Boston Rob Robbed.
So much to talk about here at the midpoint of
the National Football League regular season. No one I would
rather do it with than our next guest. She is
Cynthia Freeland, NFL analytics expert for the NFL Network and

(01:05):
my fantasy football guru and also the pride of Okama.

Speaker 3 (01:09):
Cynthia, how are you.

Speaker 4 (01:12):
I'm doing great? Thank you?

Speaker 3 (01:13):
How are you better than the Detroit Lions?

Speaker 1 (01:16):
Right Now, when you think about what we saw Sunday,
and we know your game theory projections are amazingly accurate,
what did you see coming Saturday Sunday and what surprised
you at Ford Field?

Speaker 4 (01:35):
Well, I thought the Lions would win. Every model point
I had suggested that the Lions would win, especially with
Terry and Arnold coming back, but I have it closer
than eight and a half points, which is good but
from my model standpoints, but not for the Lions standpoint.
I just saw a team that couldn't get into rhythm.
I saw the interior offensive line remain to be a problem,

(01:56):
and that was kind of what we dropped from the
Packers game too. It wasn't similar in the structure of
what went wrong, and it's all things I think can
be avoided and fixed. But it's so frustrating because you
got to win those Gang Division games. So it was
a little bit of craps. But you know, we're good.
We're good.

Speaker 3 (02:14):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
The Allions now one and two in NFC North games,
and with the three remaining, two of them will be
on the road at Chicago and at Minnesota. And you're right,
I think a lot of this is certainly correctable, but
maybe not as easily correctable as we thought given the

(02:36):
state of the offensive line.

Speaker 4 (02:40):
The interest, Yeah, that's never going to be It's never
gonna be an easy thing. And Christian Macogany missing extended
time is not a great thing either. So the problem
is is we there's the offensive lineman don't grown trees.
Obviously you know this, but you know it's it's at
least you got pina tool there, like, we're going to
be okay. It's going to be okay. It's just a
little bit more of one of those things where kind

(03:01):
of everything went wrong and then they couldn't get it
back and write the ship in time. There's always a
few games like that every year. It's just unfortunate when
they happen against a division opponent.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
Someone was telling me about evaluating offensive lines, and you
certainly would know more about this from the breakdowns you do.
So you can have a great offensive lineman and it's
twenty percent of your front blocking wall, but if you
have two of them together on one side of the center,

(03:32):
or if you have a center guard who are top notch,
that really makes a difference. It's an exponential gain. And
I'm wondering with Taylor Decker Cynthia, he's had health issues
for a while now, but doesn't seem to be at
full efficiency. Can you tell when he is one hundred

(03:55):
percent and a fall off when he's not.

Speaker 4 (03:59):
Well? It certainly you know some of that is I
will say it's depending on how much they can get
help with kipping and picking up blitzes, because if he's
not one hundred percent and that doesn't happen, then you're
asking him to do a lot more than if he's
not one hundred percent and mean scheme around it. So
you can see it that he's not one hundred percent,
But I'm not sure if it's seventy percent, you know,

(04:19):
And I don't know if their replacement would be any
higher of a percentage than possible either, Like I think
sixty percent seventy percent decor is still better than replacing player.

Speaker 1 (04:30):
So Jared Goff had been so good and so efficient
record levels early this season and then for the second
time not so. Do you think it was more than
just the pressure and the way he felt the pocket
collapsing or was he just off a little bit?

Speaker 3 (04:51):
It didn't seem to have a rhythm from the outset.

Speaker 4 (04:54):
I didn't see much rhythm from the outset. I mean,
you know, we're so it's funny because we've had, we've
re this critical mass of quarterbacks now being true double
dual threats, you know, in all aspects, right, and Jared
Goff is not. And I've seen him scramble just a
little bit and I love it, but that's not really
his game, right, So when he gets out of rhythm,
it becomes it looks more visibly like off than we

(05:18):
might be used to because now we've trained our eye
to see so many quarterbacks be able to scramble and
run and earn first downs with their legs in a
reliable fashion. So you know, sure it wasn't in rhythm,
but I'm not suggesting it's more than just that, right,
It's okay, you know, I think it's I think we're
still okay. He's still deadly accurate when you give him

(05:40):
enough time. So just a little extra just a little
extra time, guys, it's a little extra time up front.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
It was a weird day, Cynthia, And that you got
the long touchdown catch and run by Sam Laport a
terrific individual effort. You've got Jamison Williams return off the
side of the milk carton. But you didn't have Aman
Ross Saint Brown in the end zone, and Jamiir Gibbs,

(06:06):
who was almost unstoppable against Rob's Tampa Bay Bucks, didn't
have the most impactful performance. It was just a little
bit of a weird day. When you have a field
goal and Jake Bates blocked, when you have Montgomery fumbling
the way he did, I guess you're going to get
one or two of those in the seventeen game season, right, You're.

Speaker 4 (06:29):
Definitely get one or two of those. And now it's like, okay,
does it what does the bounce back look like?

Speaker 1 (06:34):
Now?

Speaker 4 (06:35):
I know Washington is down Washington's you know, you know
Jayden and Daniels, but Marcus Mariota is still a very
good quarterback. Let's just put that there. But I wouldn't
want to be just the Commanders because I feel like
this is a team that very much takes on their
head coaches personality, and I don't want to I don't
think I want to, like see facing Dan Tempbell angry.

(06:55):
Thanks for.

Speaker 3 (06:57):
Right. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:58):
I have a reverse momentum theory that in the National
Football League, what you are one week is almost never
what you are consistently the next So the Lions were bad,
I think they'll be good, and then they play Philadelphia
and I don't think they'll be as good as they
will be this week. I want to talk a little

(07:19):
bit about the division Cynthia and Green Bay. That damn
tie with Dallas. It just it's hard to figure out
what to make of it. Is it going to be
a plus for the Packers? Is it going to cost
them the division? Would you say that at the end
it's going to come down to those two teams and

(07:39):
when they meet.

Speaker 3 (07:39):
At Ford Field?

Speaker 4 (07:42):
Probably? I mean Thanksgiving, hopefully we all have a lot
to thank before this Christmas or this Thanksgiving, and then
Christmas against the Vikings could also be another one that
becomes very important as well. So we got a lot
of Thursdays that have some holidays, but also you know
for Lions it's bite your nails holidays for those too.
But I'm looking at I'm looking at those games and

(08:02):
thinking those two might just be the puzzle solvers for
all of this, because the Ancy North is better top
to bottom than I think other divisions give us credit for. Right,
Like I you know, the Bears have had some weird
stuff happened. That was a crazy game against the Bengals.
Bengals lost that one more than the Bears won it,
in my opinion. But you know, I still think that

(08:25):
it's a it's a tough division. It doesn't feel like,
you know, there are no Dolphins or Jets in this division.

Speaker 1 (08:33):
Cynthia, if I had told you on Labor Day that
midway through the season the Lions and the Chicago Bears
were going to have the same record, suggested I get
a sobriety test.

Speaker 4 (08:46):
You know, I feel like when you play a first
place schedule and you play a fourth place schedule and
you have, you know, you don't have the full season,
you know, data to contend with, yet it's just a
little easier playing teams like the Bengals and the Ravens.
It's just a thought, you know, things like that, right, So,
I mean I would have I would have been like what,

(09:08):
But I probably would have been like, well, let's look
at the actual games and schedule because the where you
finish in the it doesn't matter. Now that we have
three unique games.

Speaker 1 (09:18):
Yeah, I have a friend from Chicago Bears fan.

Speaker 3 (09:22):
You have to forgive me for that.

Speaker 1 (09:23):
But insisting that if Chicago plays this way the rest
of the year and could finish with ten wins that
Ben Johnson should be the NFL Coach of the Year.

Speaker 3 (09:37):
What do you think of the job he has done?

Speaker 4 (09:39):
If the Bears finished with ten wins, Absolutely, it's definitely
something where Ben Johnson could be looking at Coach of
the Year status. The hard part now is Shane Stiken
and the Colts have had just a strong, strong start
and right now, I mean, it's going to be hard
to overtake Shane Siken for any coach, you know, but
it's not to say that. And by the way, it's

(10:02):
kind of not necessarily always the best omen because you know,
you kind of want to win Super Bowls, right, So
look at the number of Coach of the years that
have won Super Bowls, like in a short amount of time,
and we just we'll just leave that one right there.
So put that one right there.

Speaker 1 (10:15):
Yeah, And there are coaches now whose teams have been
pleasant surprises and are better than five and three for sure.

Speaker 3 (10:24):
Think about Mike Vrabel.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
You know, there are the guys around and what McDonald
has done at Seattle too. Looking at Minnesota and this
matchup back in the Twin cities. Do you think that
there was any carryover from that game the first week
in January when both of these teams were fourteen and

(10:45):
two and the Lions took their lunch money thirty one
to nine. It wasn't competitive led to Sam Darnold leaving town.
Maybe it would have anyway, but the fact that the
Vikings really got their noses rubbed in it. Do you
think that had any influence at all on last Sunday?

Speaker 4 (11:07):
I mean, from a rally the troops, let's get everyone
rowing in the same direction. Let's kind of get all
our ducks in a row here and rally behind our
guy JAJ mccars. Sure, but I also think, you know
Van Ginkole being back, we also big Kaled too, because
he's really good on defense and having you know, having
your tackles play, as it turns out, makes things easier

(11:27):
on the quarterback. Just a thought, because I didn't look
at JJ McCarthy in that game, and you know, I
know Michigan. He's a Michigan along minor stand Michigan lumps.
Listened to the show. But I don't think JJ McCarthy
like sliced and diced the Lions up right. It was
a It was definitely a team effort that made that win.
And no shade to JJ McCarthy just saying it wasn't
he wasn't the sole difference.

Speaker 1 (11:46):
Maker, right, And you can look at his raw numbers
and not that impressive, but but a couple of wins
and he has made some plays.

Speaker 3 (11:58):
At the right time.

Speaker 1 (11:59):
So I think the Vikings feel good about that, and
Seattle is really happy that the Vikings feel good about that,
or enough about it that they could send Darnold to
the Pacific Northwest. I want to talk a little bit,
Cynthia about the trade deadline and the moves, and let's
start with Detroit and the moves that they did not make.

(12:22):
I understand we just went through this with the Tigers
and reluctance to make a big move, a splashy move.
But are you surprised that they didn't do more?

Speaker 4 (12:34):
Well? I guess the thing is is I don't know
because I look at you know, starting to hear from
people about and you never know what the truth is
because I'm not on the phone, you know, hearing what
people are saying they want for a specific player. What
the you know, you don't know what people were offering,
et cetera. But it doesn't sound like a player like
a Trede.

Speaker 5 (12:53):
Hendrickson or even an offensive lineman or something was within
reach of where the Lions could legitimately justify from the
standpoint of you know, what would happen to the equity
going forward.

Speaker 4 (13:05):
This isn't a team that's you know, the advantage that
the Colts have this year is that they have Daniel
Jones on such a bargain that they can afford to
not have to get quarterback in the next two drafts. Right,
That's what they're That's at least what they're signaling, you know.
So I'm looking at that and saying, well, the that's
not the position that the Lions are in. So I
don't know, I'm hearing some crazy stuff like I know

(13:27):
that the Lions don't need a running back, but you know,
the Jets, who clearly aren't going to re sign Breeze
Hall and their sellers big time. They were asking for
a third round pick for Breeze Hall, and teams were like,
has go pound sand you know, like again, not the Lions,
but you know, other teams were like absolutely not, Like
nothing higher than a late fourth would be the earliest

(13:47):
we even consider for him. So, I mean, it takes
two to tango, right, and I just don't think that
there are a lot of people willing to do that.

Speaker 1 (13:56):
Yeah, and I agree with you. You know, Bryce Hall
running back is not what the Lions are desperate for.
But there are theres some positions you look at, maybe
another pass rusher, certainly now offensive line help, maybe help
in the secondary, although they are getting players back there
and maybe it'll be okay. But when you look at

(14:19):
what some other teams did and you see the Colts, now,
maybe they said, wow, you know what, we really have
a chance at this. So they sent two first rounders
to the Jets for Sauce Gardner, you know, and Adie Mitchell.
That's right, that's right. They also included him in the deal.

(14:40):
Not insignificant, so you know, gave up a lot. But
someone reminded me last night that if the Colts are
in the Super Bowl, that first round pick is thirty one.
It's almost a second round pick. And if that's the
player you need to put you over the top. I
don't know what's your take on Sauce Carter. It didn't

(15:00):
seem like he got a lot of picks. He had
a great rookie year, but since then maybe nuts so much.

Speaker 4 (15:07):
I mean, first and foremost, I do trot Darren Glenn
to know his defensive backs, and I understand that letting
him go signal something to the market. However, what I'm
really looking at is the amount of time that he's
had what number one wide receivers in tight coverage no
corner in the National Football League, including the defensive the

(15:29):
reigning Defensive Player of the Year passer Tan has held
number one receivers opponent number one receivers in tight coverage
longer than Sauce the season.

Speaker 3 (15:37):
Wow.

Speaker 4 (15:37):
And you have to remember that defense overall, they were
with Doc Jormaine Johnson for a while, so setting the
edge on at least the one side was an issue.
And they're not happy there. I mean, it's not a secret,
it's not a surprise, it's not you know. I just
think a lot of that stuff matters. You have a
hard time getting up and really playing for someone if

(15:59):
you're really angry all the time, in grumpy like, it's
hard to do. So I think all of that matters.
And I'm looking at Sauce and I'm thinking, you know,
the Colts. Probably this might be their best shot to
make a run because the Texans did not start strong.
The Jags started strong would have really tailed off. And
the text and the Titans they're a few years away,

(16:20):
so you know, they're very very almost curtain to make
the playoffs and very certain to have a nice high feeding.
So why not take a run at it when you
don't have to try to get quarterback right next year
and you have wide receivers and you have now you
have corners, and you can work on other things that
aren't premium positioned.

Speaker 1 (16:41):
Hey, Rob, two things about what Santi Freeland just said.
Number One, she's the only guest I have who can
tell me about how long a corner is holding number
one receivers, Thank you very much. Number Two, I'm reminded
this whole idea of go for it or not go

(17:02):
for it? Didn't we just do this at the baseball
trading deadline. I swear we had this same conversation with
a different sport. What is it about the Eagles and
Howie Roseman? And you know they're just going to do
whatever it takes. They're going to always be trying to
add players. It's not like George Allen, the future is

(17:22):
now and just mortgage draft picks, but judiciously they are
looking to improve every day.

Speaker 4 (17:31):
Yeah, I mean, well, okay, so they're always making the moves,
but as of right now, this is not very Eagles Like.
When I think Eagles, I think a vicious defensive front
that's bringing a lot of pressure and constantly a problem.
Right now, they rank number nineteenth in pressure rate thirty
four percent. They've had I think sixteen sacks, which is
like middle of the pack, and they're not really they're

(17:53):
not really scaring opposing offenses with like, sure, Jalen Carter scary,
but like, apart from that, who you were about. They
just got Brandon Graham back out of retirement, so maybe
the edgey a little bit better. But Jalen Phillips brings
you over the top. If you look at what he
was able to do for the Dolphins, the Dolphins who
actually didn't face a ton of passing downs compared to
other teams, he had such a high pressure rate given

(18:15):
the numbers Nasty played. He fits really well into what
the Eagles are trying to do and hopefully he'll be
a difference maker. But I think the thing that the
Eagles do better than anyone is adjust for. They make
contingency plans with their with their cap in such a
way that gives them the ability to put, you know,
to field like if the cap is two hundred and
seventy five million, it's two seventy nine whatever, but like

(18:37):
two seventy five they're fielding like three hundred and fifty
worth of players if you're looking at average value per year,
Whereas like the Cowboys, they're the opposite of that. They're
fielding like, you know, two hundred million because they kind
of get themselves behind the eight ball and don't restructure
cap and contracts appropriately. Lines are somewhere in.

Speaker 3 (18:56):
Between, Cynthia.

Speaker 1 (18:58):
I'm guessing that you do not have a vote for
NFL MVP, right.

Speaker 4 (19:04):
I wish they don't let NFL employees have one.

Speaker 3 (19:08):
Well, you should have one, there's no question about it.

Speaker 4 (19:10):
Thank you. I want one.

Speaker 1 (19:13):
If you did have one, who would be one, two
and three on your ballot at this point?

Speaker 4 (19:20):
It's a great question, because I mean, I would have
to make the argument for Matthew Stafford back there. I
don't know about one, two three yet, but Matthew Stafford
I'd be strongly considering like a Matthew Stafford, a Jonathan Taylor,
and I'm not gonna lie. I actually think Drake May
is up there as well in his second season with
some of the stuff he's the Rabbits that he's able
to pull out of his hat with what we would

(19:42):
all consider maybe a sub a sub elite receiving corps
Drake May.

Speaker 1 (19:50):
I wonder who has Drake May in our fantasy football league? Rob?

Speaker 2 (19:54):
That would be the eight to one Rob Bennett team.
That's right there, you go, yeah.

Speaker 1 (20:00):
Yeah, Have you been watching Cynthia again on Fantasy Live?

Speaker 3 (20:03):
Is that.

Speaker 4 (20:07):
All right?

Speaker 1 (20:09):
Cynthia? Thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate it
as always. Are you going to be around for Thanksgiving?

Speaker 3 (20:17):
Are you? You're no chance of coming in for the
Lions smackers? Right?

Speaker 4 (20:21):
Sadly no, But I'm really trying to work on Netflix
to send me at least to Minnesota. Now I understand
that's not home, but at least it would be to
watch the.

Speaker 3 (20:29):
Lions game day in East Lansing. Just got taste here.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
One North Kitchen in the Bar is your go to
for unbeatable tailgate packages, perfect for fueling up before kickoff.
Sink your teeth into juicy Berger's Hardy wraps or warm
up with our famous One North Chili, a fan favorite
on Crisp All Days by the Red Seed.

Speaker 3 (20:50):
Ordering is a snap.

Speaker 1 (20:51):
Just called David at five one seven nine hundred four
MSU to get your crew game ready. Open at ten
am on weekend so you can grab your sp and
go One North Kitchen and Bar. We're great food and
Spartan spirit collide agree.

Speaker 6 (21:10):
Dean Transportation is looking for compassionate people to join our
team of school bus drivers and attendants. Visit Dean jobs
dot com to see all openings. Dean Transportation provides paid
training to obtain a commercial driver's license, increased starting pay,
comprehensive benefits, and flexible schedules with no weekend shifts, no

(21:31):
experience needed. Apply today at Dean jobs dot com and
train for back to school season. That's da n jobs
dot com.

Speaker 7 (21:41):
So it's been a while since you've had your jewelry
cleaned and inspected?

Speaker 6 (21:46):
Rite?

Speaker 7 (21:46):
Where will you go and who will you trust with
your most valuable and treasured heirlooms? At Meadowar Jewelers for
locations in Lansing, Okamis, Jackson and Portage jewelry isn't just
our job, it's our passion. Each and every piece interrusted
in our care is thoroughly inspected by our trained staff
against damage or normal wear, and we offer you, our customer,

(22:10):
the highest level of quality on repairs and custom designs.
Whether it's worn out prongs, channels or shanks, it's all
handled with incredible care. Meatow our jewelers and lansing Okamist
Jackson and Portage want to help you preserve your memories
and offer you options on creating new ones. Come in
today for the cleaning and inspection of your jewelry. We

(22:31):
continue to work hard every day to earn your confidence
and trust.

Speaker 3 (22:36):
A matter why je love.

Speaker 1 (22:41):
Jack gamblin here with my good friend Matt Slaughter, Graph
of Opemists. Big summer here, Matt.

Speaker 2 (22:45):
That's right, Jack. We got the summer savings going on
right now at Graph Nissan and Graph Chevy of Okamists.
Great deals. We're offering zero percent financing and select vehicles
up to sixty months. If you're a Castco member, we
got extra rebates for that. We're getting fresh inventory every day.
It's been a great summer. We've got great deals for you.

Speaker 1 (23:04):
Zero percent can't get much lower than that. That's exactly right,
Topacy Matt in the gang here on West Grand Riverend Okametz.

Speaker 3 (23:11):
They're making friends.

Speaker 8 (23:14):
Are you passionate about college sports? Foster Swift Sports Talk
is your go to podcast dedicated to addressing the hottest
topics in college athletics, including recruiting practices NIL, the trade
portal collectives, and revenue generation. Join us as we bring
you insights from student athletes, college head coaches, administrators, and
other industry leaders as they share their experiences in this

(23:34):
rapidly changing arena. Our mission is to share information and
help educate student athletes, parents, coaches, and other stakeholders with
the knowledge, resources, and strategies they need to make informed
decisions and maximize each college athlete's potential for long term success.
Check out our latest episode where we're joined by Cole Moore,
the general manager for Michigan State Football, to discuss revenue

(23:55):
sharing NIL in the upcoming season. Like and subscribe to
our YouTube and Facebook pages to watch all of our episodes,
or you can give us a listen on any of
your favorite podcasting platforms by simply searching Foster Swift Sports Talk.
Until next time, I'm your host, Dave Russell,