Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hard to believe this, but Week six at the NFL
starts tonight Thursday night Football Divisional battle between the Eagles
and the Giants. Eagles is seven point five point favorite
at last check. That game can be heard on this
radio station right after we say Tonight Talks and Pro
Football Now with our guys Sam Bruckhouse, Suomer Sports on
(00:20):
a Thursday afternoon.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Sam, Happy Thursday, buddy, how we doing.
Speaker 1 (00:24):
I'm doing well, Appreciate the time. Let's talk about the
game tonight. So Jackson Dart played his high school ball
not too far from here, as you and I have
talked about. The Philly storyline is interesting because of all
the conversation about their lack of offense a week ago.
They allow a fourteen point lead to evaporate in the
fourth quarter when they actually did try to throw the
(00:44):
ball against the Broncos. But Philly is still a healthy favorite.
What are you looking? What are you looking for tonight?
How do you think this one goes down?
Speaker 3 (00:51):
The thing that I'm looking for is how this defensive
front of the Giants can really shape up. They have
a lot of talent and performing at a pretty high level.
They've been the main bright spot of this Giants team
amidst quarterback changes, amidst the rookie quarterback having a pretty
turnover laden game last week. The defensive front has been
(01:13):
quite consistent with Lawrence and with Brian Burns and Keban
Thibodau and I'm Dual Carter. They just have a lot
of talent all the way to Bobby Okerrique the linebacker,
and frankly, the Eagles front has been banged up and inconsistent. Currently,
they are sitting in terms of pressure and sacrates in
the lower quarter of the league. This is the first
(01:34):
time that they've sat there by Week five in several years,
and I want to see if the Eagles front can
really start to get it together right now. As you mentioned,
the Eagles offense is basically solely based around Jalen Hurts scrambling.
I don't think this is a game where he can
really scramble to much success because of those edge rushers.
There's that deep room of edg rushers that they have,
(01:56):
and so it's really up to the offensive line to
get in shape and really turn the leaf on this
season and get that offense going this week.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Tell me what you've seen from Jackson Dart so far.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
I mean, the numbers don't jump out at you, and
I understand why the move was made. You know, I'm
from that Northeast footprint and I've got brothers that are
Giants fans, and it seems like every single week their
speculation about Brian Dables job and they were owned three.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
So you make the switch.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Win against the Chargers, bad loss against a bad Saints team.
But what have you seen, specifically Sam from Jackson Dart.
Speaker 3 (02:31):
Yeah. I think it's ability to truly create with his
legs just gives them a leg up over what they
were seeing with Russell Wilson. The question is is can
he ever reach the heights that that Week two game
against Cowboys that Russell Wilson hit. There's going to be inconsistencies,
but right now he's been able to produce positive expect
to points added in the running game. He's working at
(02:53):
about thirteen percent scramble rate, which is very high, and
so I want to see if he can settle down.
That was the free draft kind of skit on him,
was that he was one read and then scramble, and
now that his first read, his go to wide receiver
elite neighbors has gone down with injury, It's gonna be
interesting to see how that evolved. Something that I picked
(03:15):
up on though they were performing pretty well with two
tight ends on the field, and just because of the
game script, they had to go to a little bit
more pass heavy sets, I think, especially given they're facing
a terrorizing Eagles defense basically has been the best in
the league for about eighteen to nineteen games now, going
back to last year. I wonder if they don't lock
(03:36):
in on those heavy sets, those twelve personnel sets, if
that chemistry with THEO Johnson continues to build and they
hand the ball off a little bit to Skataboo, use
some play action, and we start to see some effectiveness
from heavy personnel rather than just letting him go out
there in some past happy personnel and kind of run
around a little bit. That's what I'm looking for.
Speaker 1 (03:56):
Was watching Thursday Night Football last week on Amazon Prime
and the Niners in the RAM. It was a really
fun game, kind of a surprising result. The Rams were
actually pretty healthy favorite and Al Michaels asked Herb Street
a question about whether or not mac Jones was a
better fit with Kyle Shanahan than brock Purty. Was it
still feels a little early in premature to maybe make
(04:18):
that statement. Of course, the Niners paid Brock this offseason,
so like it or not, he's around for a while.
Speaker 2 (04:25):
But mac Jones man has been really impressive.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
It looks like he's going to get another start this
week against Tampa. Is there a world, Sam that exists
if you're Kyle Shanahan where you feel like maybe Mac
is a better fit than Brock perty.
Speaker 3 (04:40):
I don't know if there's a world right now. We've
seen Brock Purdy be able to take Kyle Shanahan's offense
to places that we have really only seen guys like
Matt Ryan take Kyle Shanahan's offense. What mac Jones was
able to do last week was take advantage of what
the Rams gave them. The Rams trotted out basically six
(05:00):
six defensive backs and forced mac Jones to make accurate
and quick throws. Underneath the assumption was that he wasn't
going to be able to do that. They were matching
Christian McCaffrey and Kyle Huschek and the tight ends tongues
with small defensive backs, and it was actually pretty effective
against the run as well. It was a very interesting
game plan from Tchula, the defensive coordinator of the Rams.
(05:22):
They said, Mac Jones, you're going to have to beat us.
You're gonna have to throw forty times. You're going to
have to complete thirty five of those, and he was
able to do it. The question is when you start
facing more aggressive fronts, which basically started to happen in
the second half when they were lining Jared Vers up
all over the field and they ended up shutting them
down to six points. I don't think that you'll see
(05:44):
those dry spells that you saw in the second half
as the Rams came back with brock Purty. But more generally,
this question of the ability seemingly of any quarterback, except
for a brief moment with Trey Lance, but who's to
say that he couldn't have figured it out. It seems
like any quarterback can succeed in this Kyle Shanahan offense.
This was something going all the way back to mid
(06:06):
season last year. I was riding about on suomer sports
dot Com in that if you thought that you could
get a backup, it was Sam Darnold two years ago,
and now it's Mac Jones who can really keep the
chains moving. Doesn't really make sense to play Brock party.
At the time, what we were discussing was over Dak
Prescott's contract, with the contract ended up being I thought
(06:26):
was very reasonable in the correct lane of the Jared
Goffs and the two attack of blows of the world.
And so I think at Colt it's brought Perty's team still.
But mac Jones has surprised me this year.
Speaker 1 (06:38):
So a lot of very shocking results a week ago,
I don't know how shocking. And the Jags win was
over the Chiefs, I mean Kansas City I think was
a three point five point favorite. Our guy Devin Lloyd,
who played his college ball up just about.
Speaker 2 (06:52):
A mile from here up the hill.
Speaker 1 (06:53):
With another interception, this time at pick six, Chiefs jump
out to that fourteen zero elite. You felt like they
were going to kind of run away with it. But
now jackson goes four and one. What are you willing
to say about the Jags? And then where you at
with the two and three Kansas City Chiefs Right now?
Speaker 3 (07:09):
You know they say golf is a game of luck.
If you practice real hard, you get real lucky. I'm
starting to wonder if that's not the case with the
Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Here's a team who plays an immense
amount of zone covers. They're sitting at about six in
the league right now, but they just have been able
to generate turnovers and who better than Devin Lloyd the
(07:29):
you taught native to have a basically one hundred and
two yard pick six to turn that game around. It
basically ends up being the major difference in the game.
In the analytics community, you typically get a little hesitant
to load a ton of trust into defenses that are
very good EPA per play. They're generating lots of turnovers
(07:51):
and explosive plays as Devin Lloyd did on the defensive
side of the ball, but they're allowing a success rate
that's very high. In that game, Kims City was able
to move the ball down the field and really the
only time that the Jacksonville Jaguars really stopped him was
that pick six. And I think that's why I'm a
little skeptical of that Jaguars defense. However, if Trevor Lawrence
can continue to play well and Liam Cohen can continue
(08:14):
to orchestrate an effective run game, this is a team
with a lot of talent. You have Brian Thomas Junior
who looked better last week as someone who has been
a wide receiver one on a team last year and
I still expect to break out this year. You have
Travis Datchans, someone who has been a high level Pro
Bowl caliber running back who is performing as such right now,
(08:35):
and you have josh Hinz Allen as a defensive end.
When you have key players at those premium positions, it
makes for a pretty good mix. And that's not even
including Travon Walker, who's on the other side as a
defensive end. There's a lot of premium talent on that team.
I think it's just about getting it in the right
place right now, getting.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
Late early for the Ravens, isn't it.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
You know, when you looked at the preseason Super Bowl lines,
Baltimore was right there along with Buffalo.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
We'll get to Buffalo in a moment.
Speaker 1 (09:02):
And I do want to ask you about the Patriots
and Drake may because that was impressive. We'll see what
happens this weekend with the health stuff. But they have
the Rams and obviously a very good talented team, very
well coached. You'd follow the one in five and that
might be Curtains, but of course, you know when it
comes to a team that is that talented and when
fully healthy, it's probably not smart to completely write them off.
(09:25):
But what do you make of this one in four
team right now? And do you have faith? And maybe
they can find their way back.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
So, if you recall, we were in a very similar
spot last year, the difference was was Lamar Jackson was
healthy number one and number two was playing extremely well.
Is he still playing pretty well? Yes, not quite up
to the MVP calendar caliber that we've seen. What I
thought was interesting as I was watching film today is
he's been struggling a lot when people are putting spies
(09:52):
right over the center and having him mirror and having
that linebacker mer Lamar Jackson off the line of scrimmage.
He's been struggling with that a bit, and that's something
we haven't really seen. I think it may be a
little bit of an answer that was unveiled by the
Chiefs kind of two years ago that teams have really
caught on too. And I'm going to be interested in
(10:13):
how that shows up against the team, like you said,
that likes to line people up right over that center,
and so when it really comes down to it, I
think it's truly the defense that has to get it together.
They are dealing with a metric ton of injuries across
that defense, but they're just not going to be able
to get it done. With a twenty eighth twenty ninth
ranked defense last year, this defense was struggling at the
(10:35):
beginning of the year, made some personnel changes, moved Marlon
Humphrey inside, move Stevens, who is now with the Jets
out to the outside. I think some personnel changes or
at least some strategy changes are needed on the defensive
side of the ball because they simply can't play Ravens
football the way they want to without a strong defense, I.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
Really thought, and this is based off of what we
had seen. Of course, of course Joe Burrow goes down,
but you could do worse as a backup if you
know with Jake Browning what he's done in the past,
with Joe's injury history, and.
Speaker 2 (11:06):
Just throw a ton of picks.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
So they make a move and they bring in Joe
Flacco and he's going to be under center on Sunday.
With your knowledge of that system and the type of
quarterback Flacco is, do you think he'll be able just
to step in and understand the assignment he's tasked with.
Speaker 3 (11:22):
Yeah, it's going to be very unique. I mean when
Joe Burrow is in that system, it is a RPO
heavy offense. It is shotgun level passing, and it's it's
almost resembles more of a college system that we've become
accustomed to, then it resembles some of these under center
play action style style plays. I think the main difference
(11:43):
between Jake Browning and Joe Flacco or the question is
is can Joe Flacco get the ball more literally just
more number count of times to Jamar Chase and T Higgins.
That's the name of the game with that team. If
they're able to get the ball in the hands of
those playmakers, its up going. Well. We saw Jamar Chase
have good games with Jake Browning in the past. They
(12:04):
just haven't been able to get him the ball for
whatever reason. They've tried most everything, and so I wouldn't
be surprised if we start to see an offense trot
it out there with Flaco that is more Jamar and T.
You run beat down the field and we're going to
try to get the ball to you and see what happens.
I think that's the strategy change that we're going to
see this week.
Speaker 1 (12:23):
Reference, So I wanted to get to that Bill's Patriots game.
I think it was fourteen straight trips to high Mark
where the Patriots lost to the Bills. And Buffalo is
still I think the Vegas favorite to win the Super Bowl,
and certainly one game does not get you off a
team that is quarterback by that guy and is that good.
(12:43):
Wildly impressed with Drake May Sam and his ability to
make plays. Must have been a really good night for
Stefan Diggs. Stunned that the result went that way. What
were your takeaways?
Speaker 3 (12:54):
Yeah, the numbers back that up. Drake May right now
is a top player and expected points added per play.
He's doing well in the passing game, he's doing well
in the running game. And this Patriots offense has played
really well. But I do want to highlight one things.
They've been really successful as a result of their offensive line,
what was once looked at last year as a weakness,
(13:15):
added players like Will Campbell at the left tackle position
who's performed very well, Morgan Moses at the right tackle
position who has performed very well, and that allowed Mike
on Winu formerly who was playing tackle for the Patriots
to move to his natural position at guard, where he
has been plat pass blocking very well. The ability of
that offensive line to control the game has allowed Drake
(13:36):
May to be Drake May and kind of create outside
of the pocket and take a little bit more time
to make downfield throws to guys like Stefan Diggs. I
think the real question in last week's game was if
they don't get those three turnovers against the Bills, some
of which were pretty catastrophic, are they able to win
that game. It's very difficult to win games with turnovers.
(13:57):
As a result, I'm not as worried about the Bills
more than as I'm surprised and excited to continue watching
the Patriots.
Speaker 1 (14:05):
At what point do we start to believe a little
bit in the Colts, Sam, You know, they.
Speaker 3 (14:11):
Have what it takes to win, which is a good
offensive line and a good defensive line. I will believe
it when I start I start getting I stopped getting
some of these games from Daniel Jones where it just
seems to go completely haywire. We saw one a couple
of weeks ago, and I guess you can kind of
expect that every third game or every fourth game is
(14:32):
going to look a little bit weird from Daniel Jones.
They are in a competitive division now. I think in
the early season when the Jaguars were still trying to
get it together and had some shaky games and the
Texans weren't looking all that great, that it seemed like
they were just going to roll over with their excellent
defensive line, the Forrest Buckner, Grover Stewart, and their excellent
offensive line as well. And I also want to give
(14:53):
a shout out to Shavariu's Ward, the cornerback who came
over from San Francisco, and it's performing at an all
pro level once again. So they have a bunch of
guys who are playing extremely well. But I do think
regression is nigh and I would expect him to settle
in around the eight, nine to ten win team that
they've been in the past couple of years.
Speaker 1 (15:12):
I referenced the Niners in the Bucks, but I probably
need to ask you about Tampa because I just I
love this story.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Now.
Speaker 1 (15:19):
I was never one that believed Baker should have been
the number one overall pick, but I always just I
always liked him. I always liked his you know, his
his competitive nature, I know there were some things that
turned some people off. I don't give a rip, just
you know, what do you look like when you're on
the field, leading a team and trying to win? And
it felt like he was just treated very unfairly by
(15:40):
a certain portion of the American media that covers this sport.
So they're four and one and he's in the mix
for MVP, and like I said, I just think it's
a really cool story. How real is this foreign one
starting your thoughts on Baker Mayfield?
Speaker 3 (15:53):
Now, if you want analytical Sam talking to you, the
start is not that real. We've had extremely close games
that have been won by an extremely small margin. Now
Baker has led game winning drives in basically every single
one of those games. And so when you really look
at how efficient they are as an offense and what
(16:14):
they're doing on a play by play basis as well,
are really really good. And you have to give it
to Jason light the general manager, and Todd Bowles for
putting Baker in a position to win. They have Tristan
Wurf's probably the best left tackle in the league. They
have an excellent quiver of wide receivers. They invested in
a Mecca and Buka in the first round. Many people
were surprised. Now he looks like a certified wide receiver
(16:36):
one in this league. And that's even missing Mike Evans,
who is probably the true wide receiver one on this team,
and not even discussing Bucky Irving or Rashad White or
Chris Godwin, all of which are who very good contributors
on that offense as well. They have a lot of
weapons to play with on the offense, and so I
think the reality of this team is getting the defense
(16:57):
in a spot where it can really compete. Right now,
they're sitting at twenty first in the EPA for play.
The back end has been kind of a struggle over
the past two years, even though we've seen Antoine Winfield
play really really well, and so it's just a question
of can they get consistent pressure. Can they really back
up that offense that's going to produce points. At this point,
(17:18):
we've seen them do it for the better part of
two three years. At this point, I think that offense
is real. I think Baker Mayfield is real. The Tampa
Bay Buccaneers as a team, though I'm a little bit
more questionable.
Speaker 2 (17:29):
About Before we say you Louse.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
I keep referencing the Vegas odds, but you're a guy
that understands the data and the numbers. So I'll just
ask you at this point AFC NFC, the team you
have the most confidence in in both conferences.
Speaker 3 (17:43):
I really have the most confidence in the Lions. Again
in the early season, what you're really looking for is
teams that are blowing out other teams, and the Lions
for the second or third straight year, are just absolutely
mauling teams who are unprepared to face them. And they're
doing that regardless of Jared Goff has a good game,
regardless of if the offensive line has a bad game.
(18:05):
In the left tackle Decker goes down, they bring in
young player Giovanni Manuh he does not play well. They
still absolutely mall a team. I'm so happy I can
say that I'm back on the Lions train of them
just being the best team in the league. And I
think big kudos in fact, is to Aiden Hutchinson on
the other side of the ball, who has really stabilized
that defense. They're starting to look really good with new
(18:27):
defensive coordinator Kelvin Shepard. They're having a little bit of
issues at the cornerback position. Some injuries to Terry and
Arnold who seems to it was an indefinite injury. It
looks like he's going to be able to come back
DJ Reid as well. The acquisition at the other cornerback position,
they're going to have to get that lockdown. But we've
seen this team overcome that before and so if hutch
(18:48):
is in the Honolulu Blue, I think that defense is
going to be good. And as long as Jared Goff
is slinging it behind a talented offensive line to talented
skill players, I have the most trust that in any
given game aim they can go out and win.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
Sam before you said you lose, tell our listeners about
sumer Brain where they can find it and can I
use it to win a million dollars on DraftKings.
Speaker 3 (19:09):
So suomer sports dot com slash suomer Brain Spence if
you want detailed data that you can't get anywhere else.
A lot of these that that zone stat that I
threw out about the Jacksonville Jaguars. I went in and
asked Sooomer Brain what the Jacksonville Jaguars split between man
and zone was. When Tyson Campbell, who was recently traded,
was on the field. I quickly learned that he's going
(19:32):
to a very man heavy scheme with the Cleveland Browns.
Perhaps explains a little bit why of why the Cleveland
Browns valued him over Greg Newsom. So sumer Brain it's
just like a chatbot, just like chat GPT, but you
have access to the best, highest quality data available to you,
and you know Spence, you can go in and and
(19:53):
maybe learn a little bit about your jets. They have
very high success rates right now. They're trending in the
right direction there, so ask a couple questions. Let me
know what you think.
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Oh man, I didn't want to bring the Jets up
at all this hit, but thank you for bringing it up.
As you exit, Sam, thanks for the time, Buddy, enjoyed
the games. Okay, my pleasure, all right, Sam brockcast suomer Sports.
Check out their new feature called sumer Brain for advice
on fantasy football or if you just want to dig
in and learn more about the numbers and what the
data says about your favorite team. Sam stops by today
(20:23):
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