July 25, 2025 • 34 mins
It's been a wild week on Wall Street with interest rates, trade pacts, home sales and a Presidential visit to the fed all playing a role in what the markets did. Coming up on The Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm, we'll make sense of everything that happened and impacted your money as well as a look ahead to next week and the very important Fed meeting.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Good Friday afternoon to you.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven to
eighty KO, which it's.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
A pleasure to be with you.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Tgif I'm gonna give you about three exclamation points, that's right.
It was a busy, voll little crazy week. But hey,
it was a successful week. You know, I love Fridays
for a lot of reasons, as many of you do.
But from a show topic standpoint, I love Fridays because
it gives me a chance to kind of sit back,
take a deep breath and reflect and learn what happened
(00:25):
this week?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Why did it happen? But you know what?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Market closed a little over two hours ago. It's ancient
history in Wall Street time. Right, it's all done. Now
what do we have to do. We've got to look
forward to next week, and oh, folks, what a week
you're gonna have in store for you. Don't miss one
show next week. Don't miss one show. If you do,
pick up our podcast, because it is gonna be a
crazy week. Matter of fact, the heaviest week of Ernie's
(00:50):
numbers will be released next week. I'll get into more details.
We've got a fed interest rate decision. We have a
non farm payroll report. We're starting a brand new month.
I mean, we're gonna have it all on our way,
and let's hope that it's gonna be all good news.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
So welcome.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
I'm gonna give you my Wall Street week recap because
again there was a lot of things, but again, most importantly,
we always try to learn what did we learn from
this week?
Speaker 1 (01:13):
What happened? What are some of the things.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Again, as I was discussing with a client today, our
job as portfolio managers is not to get emotionally attached
to the stock market, to always be looking at the
stock market with one eye open and one kind of
like hunch down a little bit, like, hmmm, this is
really the right market? Should the market be doing this
type of thing?
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We have to be skeptics, but we also have to
be optimists, and that's what I want to do.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
With you today.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
I'm gonna give you so much good news that happened
today as well as this week. But at the same time,
we're gonna we're gonna squint that right eye a little bit.
We're gonna go okay, but there's some things that are
lurking out there that we need to be paying attention
to right. It's never it's never perfect, never, never perfect,
but it's gonna be a lot of fun. Sit back
and relax. I'll take it from here. Here we go,
(01:58):
all right, let me tell you what the ndacy did.
First of all, not going to build into the day,
and then we'll go back and look at the week,
the year to date numbers. Just bring you up to
date so you can make the best informed investment decisions
for you and your family. All right, So we finished
today very strong. We had some periods this morning where
it didn't look all that good. Matter of fact, we
were just barely budgeting the pre market session. Market opened
(02:19):
up and had a little bit of i we'll say
a little bit of volatility. That's just putting it mildly
right at the open matterack, we plunged pretty quickly and
then we rebounded. Then we plunged again, not quite as
bad as the first plunge, and then it was pretty
much a straight shot up. A little bit of you know,
hiccups here and there, but overall it was a nice
steady bottom left upper right chart of the market. And
(02:42):
that's kind of how we finished. Not at the high today,
but very close. Are high on the dow to day
was forty four thousand and seven, excuse me, forty four
thousand four and we closed it forty four thousand, nine
oh one. So that ain't too shabby, as the saying goes,
to close so close to a high for the day
on our Friday, especially, But as you're gonna learn, there
were some big news that came about and that was
(03:03):
the reason we came off those lows and again why
the buyers were in fine form today because there's some
potential events that are gonna unfold over the weekend that
can impact your portfolio. All right, So two o eight
gain on the dow point four to seven percent. Guess
what NASDAK and SMP take a guess what I'm gonna say.
If you said Sanchez, you're gonna say it's another record
(03:23):
close dal gun rights, I am fifty point gain on
the NASTAC today point two four percent to twenty one
thousand and one eight. Then NASDA excuse me. The SMP
finished up twenty five points point four zero percent two
six thousand, three hundred and eighty eight.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Let's bring you up to date.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
On the weekly side of things, the dow rose approximately
one point three percent for the week. Then NASDAK gained
one percent and the S and P five hundred up
one point five percent. You know, I want to thank
all of you that took advantage of our our offer,
Jason and I offer pardon me last Friday when we said,
you know what, We're gonna review twenty of your portfolios.
(04:04):
We're gonna give you a full blown analysis of your
holdings of your portfolio, give your advice with your what
you're doing right, what you're doing wrong, and you take
it from there. If you want us to take over,
by all means, will do it. But if you want
to stay doing what you're doing, maybe stay with your
current broker or self managing. I saw it all this week.
I did I don't know, five or six reviews. I
guess it was. And again, some people are like, take
(04:26):
this stuff over. Others are like, hey, you know what,
I got a great relationship with my advisor. I'm like, beautiful,
that's what I want to hear. But here's a couple
things your advisor's doing right. And here's a couple of
things your advisor's doing wrong. Bring it to his or
her attention. And then there were a few of you
that were self managing, which I don't know why anybody
does that anymore because management fees with advisors like ourselves
are so reasonable. It's like, why would you want to
(04:49):
stress yourself out? Don't you want to go live your life?
Do you really want to? And the common thing that
I saw with a lot of people that are self
managing right now is this is this was a great
time for us to make this offer to you. Again,
we offered twenty of you and everybody took advantage of it.
But those that were self managing, what's when I see
(05:09):
going on right now is your portfolios are doing pretty
well because frankly, everything is doing well right now. Right
it's pretty hard not to be making money in the
market at this particular time. But again back to my analogy,
when I you know, up in one eye kind of squinted,
you have to be looking down the road. And what
I noticed with quite a few of people that I
again did the evaluation on this week, they're not looking
(05:30):
down the road. And what they are they're very, very
concentrated in their portfolio, just a handful of holdings. And
you know, if you're in the right concentration, like some
of the big tech names et cetera. Yeah, you're making
a lot of money, but also you're missing out on
some other areas of the market, like the international markets,
which are have far surpassed our markets in most cases
(05:50):
on a year to day basis. So it's always a
good idea to get a second opinion of what you know,
what's going on, because it's the old adage, you can't
see the forest through the trees, right, you can't.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
You're living your life, right.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
We live, eat, and breathe this market every single day,
you know, sometimes seven days a week. I mean I
never stopped Jason never stops looking at the market, following
the news over the weekend, making sure that we're all
prepared come Monday for our clients, for the show, etc.
That's our commitment to all of you. But you got
lives to go live, right. We don't have lives. We
just take care of our clients. That's our life. So
(06:26):
you know, if you're not doing this each and every day,
you're missing out on a lot of things. And again
that's why the evaluations were so strong. I've got to
take a look and see where we are next week
on the calendar. But we may bring that offer back
again in about a week or so, you got to
finish up the ones that we've committed to. So again,
thanks to all of you. It's been a great pleasure
(06:46):
to get to meet so many of you over Zoom
and things like that, and long, long time listeners. One
gentleman told me, I've listened to you since two thousand
and one. When you start on KOH, I'm like, my gosh,
you are a loyal listener. Twenty four years. You've been
listening to my and I thank you for that, and
anybody else out there if you hung with me these
many years, thank you, thank you, thank you, and I know,
(07:07):
ok wage, thanks you. Okay, So back to the market, boy,
this is gonna be good stuff to go over. Okay,
let's hit the year to date numbers. You got the
weekly numbers again, very strong week you're to date. Hey,
this market's stinking up, folks. In this one other thing
that I saw as a takeaway from these portfolio reviews
this week.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Many of you are sitting on a lot of cash.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
And when I asked the question why, one answer was
I don't know where to put it. Another answer was
I'm a little nervous of the market. All those are
valid reasons, But if you don't need that cash, Like,
one person had a pretty sizable sum of money sitting
in a money market and after asking some questions, we
determined that, you know, he could basically take about three
(07:49):
quarters of that cash and get it put to work
instead of this earning a couple percent in the money
market account.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
He's like, man, I didn't realize that.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Yeah, you know, the momentum is in the market right now.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Folks.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
If you are not playing this game right now and
it fits within your risk doledge, you are missing out.
If you're not taking advantage of some of these areas
that are moving, you are missing out. And so I
cannot stress enough how important it is to understand what
is in your portfolio, your asset allocation. Are you in
the right areas of this market? If you go I
don't know, call our office and we will be more
(08:21):
than happy to We don't have time right now to
give you the full review, but we'ren't happy to talk
to anybody anytime right or again. We take over the
management of it. Then you go live your life and
you don't have to worry about it. All right, This
market's sneaking up. These games are starting to creep up
on a year to date basis. Listen to these numbers.
NASDAK up nine point three percent year to date. Hey,
if we close, you know, pretty close to this right now,
(08:42):
if we close the books for the year, not a
bad year. SMP now up eight point six percent, the
Dow a five and a half percent gain, and the
Rustle two thousand it's starting to creep up to a
one point four percent increase. So these numbers are there,
there's kind of your benchmark. See what your portfolio is doing.
I've seen some that were far surpassing what the market
is doing here to date. I've seen others that are
(09:04):
barely up one percent. Again, it's all about being in
the right positions, the right sectors at the right time. Okay,
so you're to date, you got the numbers. Weekly, you
got the numbers. But I'm gonna go back to the
week side of things, and i mean, w e ek,
not the w eak.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Listen to this, folks.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
With this gain of the S and P five hundred
today once again twenty five point game point four zero
percent close at six thousand and three eighty eight. Listen
to this stat This was the fourteenth record close of
the year for the SMP five hundred. Think about that
for a second fourteenth record close. That is absolutely substantial.
(09:49):
Now you may go, wow, did not realize that. But again,
when I get to some of the things that we're
a bit concerned about, that could be one of those.
That could be one of those, because, as I said
to quite a few of these people that I did
the reviews for this week, I get very nervous. I've
said this all along, when we are setting record closes
(10:10):
day after day after day, every day this week, and
can it be justified, absolutely, but can it also mean
be careful? Absolutely. I'll go back to a conversation I
had with them with a portfolio review this morning. I said,
look at just to remind you, I'll remind all of
you what you have to be careful about in this environment.
(10:33):
Is this when you are closing at record levels day
after day after day after day. And those of you
that have followed me for years, you know what I'm
about to say. You wake up one day and all
of a sudden, they pull the rug out.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
From underneath you.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
The algorithms, the professional traders, They're like, we've gone up
too far, too fast. They pulled the rug out, they
start selling it off.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
And you're going, wait a minute, here, I was up,
you know.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Ten percent of my portfolio. Now I'm down five percent.
What the hell happened?
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Thing.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
That's just the way the markets work these days. They
will sell off for no reason, they will go up
for no reason. I mean, folks, I wish you could
have been sitting in my seat today when when Trump
made a comment, he was leaving the White House as
he does every Friday. He was actually getting ready to
I'll touch on later. He's heading over to Europe to
(11:21):
talk to them. But you know, as he always does,
before he gets on the helicoptery, you hear the helicopter
engines in the background. He's like, you know, taking hitting
miss questions from the from the press corps. And as
soon as he said, yeah, well you know pretty much
fifty to fifty shot that we're gonna have a deal
with Europe this weekend, boom, here comes the algorithms. This
market took off and that was our turning point this morning.
(11:44):
Who'd have ever thought that, But that's the algorithms moving
this market so fast that it's it's beyond the capability
of human being. Hence why you must have a diversified portfolio,
especially if you are self managing your money and you're
taking care of the wife, the spouse, the house, the job,
all the responsibilities you have. You cannot stay on top
of this market. We do it fourteen hours a day,
(12:06):
every single day, and it's a challenge for us sometimes.
So just keep that in mind. If you're going, wait
a minute, I'm underperforming the market, why am I? That's
the reason you're not diversified. You're not in the right areas.
You may be over concentrated or under concentrated in some areas.
Is that a word? Under concentrated? How about under allocate it?
That's better? All right?
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Last thing I want to mention about this week. What
a week it was.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
As far as earnings numbers, one hundred and sixty nine
companies of the S and P five hundred have reported
this week eighty two percent, eighty two percent have beaten
wall streets expectation. That's substantial. And as I said earlier,
guess what next week the heaviest week of earnings numbers.
Let's if we can keep that strong number eighty two
(12:49):
percent or above. As far as companies that have beat
Wall streets expectation. That is another driver and another reason
we have such a successful week. I'll continue on my
summary of the week on Wall Street and we return,
but let's first turn it over to Kristin Snow. She
is in the right and now traffic center making sure
you get home safe. Happy Friday, Kristin, Welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty
(13:10):
k which Happy Friday to all of you. I am
recapping the week on Wall Street and then looking into
next week. Oh by the way, as I mentioned earlier,
eighty two percent or about well one hundred and sixty
nine companies reported this week in the SMP. Again, that's
eighty two percent beat Wall streets expectation. One hundred and
fifty companies are going to be reporting next week. So again,
(13:31):
very very busy week, the busiest week of the earning season.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
All right.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
Once again, we finished with a gain of two eight
on the DOW, a record finished up fifty on the
NAZAK to twenty one one oh eight, and I record
close on the SMP five hundred, up twenty five points
to close at six thousand, three hundred and eighty eight.
All right, let's continue on what we what we dealt
with this week. So let's come back to the beginning
part of the week. Is this was really setting the
tone for this SMP five hundred as well as the
(13:58):
naszack continue to set records again. As I mentioned earlier,
fourteenth record closed this year. We've had on the S
and P five hundred as of today. But remember at
the beginning of the week, we had something really big happening.
That's when Trump announced a massive trade agreement with Japan
that includes a fifteen percent reciprocal tariff. He made them
kick in about five hundred and fifty billion to buy
a bunch of US goods and services and so on
(14:20):
and so forth, and so that really got the momentum
going for the week. Now looking forward to next week,
here's why the market got excited mid morning and we
kind of snapped that sell off that we were experiencing.
That is when we learned that the President is going
to be meeting with the European Union Commissioner on Sunday,
(14:40):
and actually they're going to be meeting in Scotland to
be exact, to discuss the trade deal. Now, Trump is
very optimistic, as he always is, that a deal is
going to be done, you know, probably announced on Sunday
if you kind of read between the lines of what
he was saying to the press corps.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
We don't know what it is now.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Remember European Union, they've been kind of dragging their feet
on this thing, right obviously, very very large economy. Don't
know if they're going to try to get the same
deal or maybe better that Japan got, meaning the fifteen
percent reciprocal. But both sides, meaning the US and the
European Union, seem to be again starting to head in
the right direction of the earnings numbers or excuse me
(15:21):
of of the tariff agreement, and then you know, get
that behind us, and then we're going to be faced
with the next issue. That next issue August the first,
that is when countries that have not have not agreed
to a trade deal, that is when they're facing the deadline.
Now what is the deadline specifically, we don't know right
(15:42):
It varies from country to country. I've seen ranges between
twenty percent fifty percent. It just depends upon which country.
And the latest round of negotiations which none of us
have privy too. But August first, mark our new calendar.
That is going to be when the next round of
trade deals are supposed to be done or the new
tariffs take i'd click in. So that is a big
(16:03):
date again to be circling on your calendar. All right, again,
let's go back to this week, and then we'll get
back from breaking we'll start focusing on what's going on
next week. I want to talk about a little bit
about Intel.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
Yesterday.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Of course, as I mentioned on the show, Intel reported
numbers for the most part, not real good numbers. But
here's what really got everybody. So today the stock finished down.
Let's see what we finished out about a buck ninety six,
eight point sixty six percent lost to twenty sixty seven.
Here's what was interesting, folks. Again, kind of bad numbers.
(16:41):
It looks like their new CEO is really starting to
clamp down on excess spending. He says we're no longer
an open checkbook. But here's what got me in the announcement.
And I didn't really pick it up that much or
hear it much, you know, from the press, but I
think it's very important. Intel announced in their earnings release
yesterday that they are going to get rid of fifteen
percent of their global workforce Okay, so yours truly decided
(17:07):
this morning when that news came out, do a little checking.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Get this.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
As of the end of last year, Intel had one
hundred and eight thousand, nine hundred employees globally. One hundred
and eight thousand, nine hundred, simple math. Fifteen percent. That's
sixteen thousand employees that are going to lose their job
or have already lost them. Sixteen thousand. Think about that. Now,
(17:33):
let's put that in perspective. Remember it was a few
weeks ago when Microsoft said, hey, we're getting rid of
four percent of our global workforce, and that was about
nine thousand jobs on top of the eighteen thousand they
announced back in May. So there's seventeen thousand there, here's
sixteen thousand with Intel, but smaller company from payroll standpoint,
and they cited AI is one of the reasons. And
(17:54):
of course we know it's cost cutting and many other things.
But I was talking to about talking to my brother
this morning about this, and he's actually been to Intel
and toured them and so on and so forth with
his focus on AI and and having his PhD.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
In that area, et cetera. And he's like, you know
what this is?
Speaker 2 (18:12):
He said, look at the common denominator, and it was
it was true. He goes, look at the common denominator
of the Microsoft layoffs, some of the Google layoffs, Metal layoffs,
and now Intel two letters AI. So again join us
this Monday when my brother, doctor Denis Sanchez, the AI doctor,
joins me again as we did last Monday, and we
talked about AI and how to look at AI not
(18:33):
as your foe but as your friend. It was interesting
to get some of your comments throughout the week from
those of you that said, like one gentleman got a
hold of me and said, look at my daughter who
was in middle management, she just lost her job to AI,
and some of those type of stories like that.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
So this is this is real life stuff, folks.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
There's going to be a lot of rounds of layoffs
going on that are attributed to AI, and again Intel
being the latest one to announced that.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
So there's that. Let's see.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Oh, this was a week of course where we had
a lot of the meme stocks which I can't really
talk a lot about, but open Door, Cole's Rocket Companies,
Krispy Kreme, they all started earlier in the week. Open
Door was up over one hundred and fifteen percent on Monday. Again,
these all got targeted by the as a you know,
a meme stock, meaning all the day traders and stuff
jumping into him. Most of them fizzled as the week progressed.
(19:26):
Let's see, really that was about it. Now when we
come back, let's start talking about next week, and then
we'll wrap things up with a couple of concerns that
I have, nothing major, but just some things to think about.
Starting over to Jack Saban, he's got news traffic on weather. Hey, Jack,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven
(19:46):
to eighty K, which i'll be Friday to all of
you once again. We gained two eight on the dowt
Nazak rose fifty, the SMB up twenty five record finishes
for the Nasdaq, and the.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
SMP five hundred.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
All right, so now we're going to move into now
you know what happened today, Let's rub the crystal ball
a little bit. Let's focus into next week, start talking
about some of the important events that are going to happen.
All right, folks, Wednesday, of course, e eleven o'clock our time.
We're gonna get a fit interest rate decision that'll be
followed at eleven thirty by the press conference, and well,
(20:16):
excuse me, yeah, followed by the press conference. And so
that's going to be a very important one. About a
quarter percent probability that we're gonna, you know, get an
interest right cut as many you know are hoping for,
as in the President. But the street right now has
(20:39):
a peg that you know, we are not going to
have that, you know. Yeah, I just want to double
check one thing on the date. Okay, so remember that
date starts or that meeting starts to day. Meeting starts
July the thirty, this one, to double check that. And
then of course the decision on the thirty first, as
I said at eleven o'clock. So again no one is
pegging for the street or on the street for the Fed.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
To cut rates.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
It'll be important once again to see, of course, we
played to you yesterday. Of course, what happened with the President.
I'm sure many of you watched it on the internet,
the meeting between Jerome Palll and President Trump at the
Federal Reserve regarding the budgets overhaul. And then the President
whips out a piece of paper to Jerome pal and says,
you know you're like two point three billion over a
(21:24):
budget and Powell looks at it and says, well, wait
a minute, here, that's the third building. And Trump says, yeah,
that's right, and Pal's like, no, that was you know,
that's not part of this whole budget situation.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yes it is. No, it's not, mister president. They got
into it a little bit.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Again, it's so obvious that that was set up to
embarrass Jerome Palll. But later in a press conference, Trump said, hey,
you know what, I'm not going to be firing him.
You know he's going to be out soon enough. So
we had that issue. So we will see if which
you know, no one, I don't think this has any influence,
but we'll see if Jerome Palell and the rest of
the Fed come under pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
(22:00):
And I know the answer to that is no. But
that's what you're going to be reading about over these
next few days, and you'll read about, of course after
the FED interest rate decision, so it'll be a non event.
Of course, it's always very exciting to see and hear
what the chairman has to say at the press conference,
So expect no interest, right cut, But let's see if
there's some hints at the press conference at eleven thirty
(22:21):
on Wednesday as to win the next cut. And remember,
you know, there's no meeting in August, so we're not
gonna hear from the Fed again in regards to a
formal interest rate meeting until September. So got a ways
to go, all right. So that's one factor, a very
big factor, of course, coming our way. We also on Friday,
we are going to have the non farm payroll numbers,
(22:41):
as if the Fed's not enough, we will find out,
of course, how the nation's employment situation is looking. They're
looking for this number to drop pretty big. Last month
or excuse me, the month of well, yeah, it would
be jeez, I'm sorry, it's late, or it's Friday. Month
of July will be these numbers. So if we go
back to June, we had about one hundred and forty
(23:02):
seven thousand jobs created. They're expecting that number to drop
to about ninety five thousand. Looking for a little tick
of an up to in the unemployment rate about one
tenth of a percent from four point one to four
point two, so on and so forth. So that will
that will come our way next Friday. On August the
first all right, So we have that now. As I
(23:22):
said it a couple times already, and I'll say it
once again, it's gonna be the busiest week of the
earning season. We have some of the big heavyweights, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft,
et cetera. They'll be a reporting next week. So far,
the numbers have been good. I will say that one
takeaway that I'm seeing now that we have a couple
of weeks of earnings under our belt, is this, if
a company has a slight miss or there's something in
(23:43):
the report, the earnings report that the street doesn't like,
they are pounding these stocks there there. I mean, you
saw what happened with Tesla, you know, big drop yesterday
over twenty bucks and here you know, rebounds a little
over eleven dollars today. So it gives you a lot
of volatility. There's a lot of volatility. Again, they're not
asking any question. You miss or you give. More importantly,
you give a bad guidance and they're gonna punish you.
(24:05):
So so far, the banks have been decent, the tech
names have been really good for the most part, and
so I don't expect anything negative out of Amazon or
Meta or Microsoft next week to to derail that side
of it. As I mentioned earlier, we have the trade uncertainty.
Of course, we've got August first trade deadline. Uh, you know,
we're still struggling with Canada and Mexico. And then as
(24:25):
I said, and then you just heard on the national news,
which again I don't ever know what's on the national news.
It just tells you I'm on top of this stuff
for you. You know, President should is meeting on Sunday with
the EU and should have a decision, So that could
be a nice boost to the I know he likes
to do that, give news good news on Sunday afternoons,
and then that affects the futures market on Sunday, and
then of course it usually carries over overnight and then
(24:47):
we get a nice little bump come come Monday morning.
So that's about it as far as uh, you know,
things that that we have for next week, so very
busy to recap made earnings week, FED meeting, non farm
payroll numbers. All right, that's not going to be enough.
So now let's let's put a little wet blanket on
(25:08):
this party. Right here, we have fourteen that record closes
this year so far in the s and P five hundred.
I think you know, the streak is something that we
have to watch very very closely. I want to give
you a little stat before I get into my concerns, right,
So I came across interesting statistic from BTIG, their chief
market technician, Jonathan Krinsky, pretty well respected on Wall Street.
(25:32):
He came out today and said the following.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
He said, look.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
This, He said that the last time that the Nasdaq
one hundred, right, So that's well, I can't say the terms,
but there's an ETF that tracks that, but it's the
top one hundred stocks of the NASDAK.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
Right.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
He said, the last time the Nasdaq one hundred went
sixty straight days without closing below its twenty day moving average,
which is what's happened to us. So remember the twenty
day moving average. If you hear Jason I talked about this.
If you look at the price level or the price
performance of a stock or ETF, et cetera over the
(26:10):
last twenty days, the average price, right, that's the twenty
day moving average.
Speaker 1 (26:13):
So you when.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
You're charting the technical side of it, you look at
twenty day moving average fifty one hundred, two hundred day
those are your main ones you look at is your charting.
So twenty days is the twenty day average of the
Nasdaq one hundred.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
He said.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
The last time the Nasdaq one hundred went sixty straight
days without closing below the twenty day moving average, that
was a short term indicator, and that was in nineteen
ninety nine, just before the dot com bubble burst. Now
my argument to that is Alan Greenspan was the one
(26:49):
that caused the dot com bubble burst. It wasn't this
stat So take it with a grain of salt. Fun
to talk about just another indicator we need to be,
you know, thinking about as we continue to climb the
walls of games and record closes. All right, so let's
get in a couple of my concerns. One thing I'm
watching very closely margin debt. Margin debt. So remember margin
(27:10):
is where you're borrowing against your taxable accounts, can't borrow
against iras. So margin debt has now surged over eighteen
percent just from April to June, and it is now
higher than it was during the dot com bubble era.
So what does that mean? That means people or are
(27:30):
so optimistic about the market and they're holdings and so
on and so forth. They're borrowing money to go out
and buy more stocks, like a mini hedge fund in
a sense. Now, I've shared stories with you over the years.
I won't bore you with them again. I remember that,
you know, like it was yesterday that dot com era.
I had people coming and going, oh yeah, I just
mortgaged my house and took out a big you know
(27:52):
homeq whit you ligne on credit for half a million
bucks because hey, I know I can double that money.
It's the dot com era, right, Things are just going
to continue to go up and up and up and up,
and then again here comes the dot com bubble bust
and poor guy lost his house. It wasn't a client.
Poor guy lost his house, destroyed his portfolio, etc. So
we watch this very closely. So this tells us that
investors are very, very very optimistic about this market. I
(28:16):
think that's a good thing. But again, all it takes
is a consecutive time period of the market going down.
And if your position, remember you can borrow in most
cases borrow up to fifty percent of the value of
your account. You got one hundred thousand dollar account, you
can borrow fifty thousand bucks and go buy to your
heart's content for that fifty thousand. But remember, if let's
say your account again was worth a one hundred thousand,
(28:38):
if the holdings drop, Let's say we have a couple
of days of the market going down and your account's
now worth ninety thousand, you would get a ten thousand
dollars margin call. And again I've been on that side.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
That's why I.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
Dissuade clients from getting margins, because I don't like being
the bill collector. Your broker's from will Nowadays they email
you and say, look at you got a ten thousand
dollars margin call.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
You got two choices. We need the money.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
It's that same day, either your wire in the money
or we have to sell off the some stocks in
your portfolio. And let me tell you, they don't give
a damn what stocks they sell for. You could create
big capital gains, that could create losses whatever they are
not fun. So if you're part of this eighteen percent
that's margining your account, please understand what you're doing and
absolutely understand the risk. All right, when we come back,
(29:21):
got a couple more points, is just again a few concerns,
nothing major, But that's my job. I'll see you in
just a few moments. Let's wrap it up with Kristen
snow right now Traffic Center. Hello Kristin, Welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on Newstock seven to eighty koaitch,
all right, We've recapped the week, we recapped the day,
the month, what we see going on. We've looked forward
to the calendar as to what is going to be
(29:42):
on store for next week. Now I'm just beginning my
discussion on some concerns I have. So before we went
to break, I talked about margin debt surging over eighteen
percent from April through June. So that again tells us
you the retail investor, you're going out, you're borrowing against
your account to go buy more stocks. Very risky if
you're doing it, be very careful. Second concern I have
(30:04):
a little bit. You know, this happens a lot, and
we've had this discussion many times over the years. Very
narrow leadership in the rally. Right, We're doing better than
we have in the past, but we're still very narrowed
that you know, majority of these games are really focused
on the megacap tech names, the AI plays, et cetera.
Still would like to see a little bit broader diversification
that again gives you more of a stable market instead
(30:26):
of everything just kind of being focused in on one
or two certain areas of the market. So again, nothing major,
but just something to think about. This one does have
me a little bit more concern consumer debt. You know,
you're not hearing a lot about this, but this is
something that we follow very closely because consumer debt tells
us the health of you the consumer. And if you,
(30:46):
the consumer are struggling with debt, you're not going to
be investing. And if you're not investing, that doesn't help
the stock market. And most importantly, you're not out buying products,
which again fuel earnings per share for companies. So consumer
debt is very important. So here's just a little bit
of information I want to share with you now before
I get to some data very quickly, I want to
(31:08):
remind somebody I haven't had a chance to mention this,
so I thought i'd take this opportunity. I know with
a younger generation, there's a big push many of you
are using buy now, pay later plans. Okay, I'm not
going to say any names. You know what I'm talking about, Well,
what you may have not known is up until recently April.
(31:31):
The first matter of fact, B and P loans again
by Now pay Later, they didn't show up on your
credit report. Well as of April the first one of
the biggest names in that buy now, Pay Later, and
that name starts with an A, began reporting all buy
now pay later installment plans to the Credit Reporting Bureau experience.
(31:52):
It later expanded to TransUnion, and this includes both short
term and longer term loans, both timely and late payment activity.
So if you do have these buy now Paid later
loans and all of a sudden you see A dropping
your credit report, that is most likely the reason if
you had delinquencies on those, because again before April first,
(32:14):
they weren't reported. They're now reported, So keep an eye
on that. So that takes me my next one. Real
quick credit card debt. Credit card debts actually built in
the first quarter of this year about one point one
eight trillion dollars, but delinquency rates are rising. As of
the first quarter, twelve point one percent of card holders
were thirty plus days late, twelve point one percent, fourteen
(32:37):
point one percent of card holders without standing debt were delinquent.
Those are levels that we have not seen since the
two thousand and eight time period. And finally a record
amount eleven point one percent are stuck making only minimum payments.
Auto loans, they're surging two point nine percent of loans
with our ninety days past due, and student loans ninety
(33:00):
let's see seven point seven to eight percent of student
loans we're ninety plus days late. Because remember those also,
you got to start paying those now, so on so forth.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
So you know, the consumer just be careful.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
You know again, it's it's easy to see these get
your debts get, you know, rolling up, and before you
know it, you got a massive credit card debt that
you can't pay or some of these others. So overall,
we're in great shave. Folks, have a great week, and
we'll do it again on Monday.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
Doublass. This program was sponsored by Sanchez gune To Capital Management, LLC.
The material in this program was intended as general information
only and should not be taken as specific investment, tax
or legal advice.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
None of the information on this broadcast was intended to
be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Further information is available by contacting at Sanchez Gaunt dot
com or seven seven five eight hundred and one eighth one.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through Independent Financial
Group LLC, a registered BOKER Dealer.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
And Investment Advisor member FINRA SIPC. Securities offered only in States.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
John Sanchez is registered in Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management LLC.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
In Independent Financial Group LLC are unaffiliated entities
Good Friday afternoon to you.
Speaker 2 (00:02):
Welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven to
eighty KO, which it's.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
A pleasure to be with you.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Tgif I'm gonna give you about three exclamation points, that's right.
It was a busy, voll little crazy week. But hey,
it was a successful week. You know, I love Fridays
for a lot of reasons, as many of you do.
But from a show topic standpoint, I love Fridays because
it gives me a chance to kind of sit back,
take a deep breath and reflect and learn what happened
(00:25):
this week?
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Why did it happen? But you know what?
Speaker 2 (00:28):
Market closed a little over two hours ago. It's ancient
history in Wall Street time. Right, it's all done. Now
what do we have to do. We've got to look
forward to next week, and oh, folks, what a week
you're gonna have in store for you. Don't miss one
show next week. Don't miss one show. If you do,
pick up our podcast, because it is gonna be a
crazy week. Matter of fact, the heaviest week of Ernie's
(00:50):
numbers will be released next week. I'll get into more details.
We've got a fed interest rate decision. We have a
non farm payroll report. We're starting a brand new month.
I mean, we're gonna have it all on our way,
and let's hope that it's gonna be all good news.
Speaker 1 (01:04):
So welcome.
Speaker 2 (01:04):
I'm gonna give you my Wall Street week recap because
again there was a lot of things, but again, most importantly,
we always try to learn what did we learn from
this week?
Speaker 1 (01:13):
What happened? What are some of the things.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Again, as I was discussing with a client today, our
job as portfolio managers is not to get emotionally attached
to the stock market, to always be looking at the
stock market with one eye open and one kind of
like hunch down a little bit, like, hmmm, this is
really the right market? Should the market be doing this
type of thing?
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Right?
Speaker 2 (01:32):
We have to be skeptics, but we also have to
be optimists, and that's what I want to do.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
With you today.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
I'm gonna give you so much good news that happened
today as well as this week. But at the same time,
we're gonna we're gonna squint that right eye a little bit.
We're gonna go okay, but there's some things that are
lurking out there that we need to be paying attention
to right. It's never it's never perfect, never, never perfect,
but it's gonna be a lot of fun. Sit back
and relax. I'll take it from here. Here we go,
(01:58):
all right, let me tell you what the ndacy did.
First of all, not going to build into the day,
and then we'll go back and look at the week,
the year to date numbers. Just bring you up to
date so you can make the best informed investment decisions
for you and your family. All right, So we finished
today very strong. We had some periods this morning where
it didn't look all that good. Matter of fact, we
were just barely budgeting the pre market session. Market opened
(02:19):
up and had a little bit of i we'll say
a little bit of volatility. That's just putting it mildly
right at the open matterack, we plunged pretty quickly and
then we rebounded. Then we plunged again, not quite as
bad as the first plunge, and then it was pretty
much a straight shot up. A little bit of you know,
hiccups here and there, but overall it was a nice
steady bottom left upper right chart of the market. And
(02:42):
that's kind of how we finished. Not at the high today,
but very close. Are high on the dow to day
was forty four thousand and seven, excuse me, forty four
thousand four and we closed it forty four thousand, nine
oh one. So that ain't too shabby, as the saying goes,
to close so close to a high for the day
on our Friday, especially, But as you're gonna learn, there
were some big news that came about and that was
(03:03):
the reason we came off those lows and again why
the buyers were in fine form today because there's some
potential events that are gonna unfold over the weekend that
can impact your portfolio. All right, So two o eight
gain on the dow point four to seven percent. Guess
what NASDAK and SMP take a guess what I'm gonna say.
If you said Sanchez, you're gonna say it's another record
(03:23):
close dal gun rights, I am fifty point gain on
the NASTAC today point two four percent to twenty one
thousand and one eight. Then NASDA excuse me. The SMP
finished up twenty five points point four zero percent two
six thousand, three hundred and eighty eight.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Let's bring you up to date.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
On the weekly side of things, the dow rose approximately
one point three percent for the week. Then NASDAK gained
one percent and the S and P five hundred up
one point five percent. You know, I want to thank
all of you that took advantage of our our offer,
Jason and I offer pardon me last Friday when we said,
you know what, We're gonna review twenty of your portfolios.
(04:04):
We're gonna give you a full blown analysis of your
holdings of your portfolio, give your advice with your what
you're doing right, what you're doing wrong, and you take
it from there. If you want us to take over,
by all means, will do it. But if you want
to stay doing what you're doing, maybe stay with your
current broker or self managing. I saw it all this week.
I did I don't know, five or six reviews. I
guess it was. And again, some people are like, take
(04:26):
this stuff over. Others are like, hey, you know what,
I got a great relationship with my advisor. I'm like, beautiful,
that's what I want to hear. But here's a couple
things your advisor's doing right. And here's a couple of
things your advisor's doing wrong. Bring it to his or
her attention. And then there were a few of you
that were self managing, which I don't know why anybody
does that anymore because management fees with advisors like ourselves
are so reasonable. It's like, why would you want to
(04:49):
stress yourself out? Don't you want to go live your life?
Do you really want to? And the common thing that
I saw with a lot of people that are self
managing right now is this is this was a great
time for us to make this offer to you. Again,
we offered twenty of you and everybody took advantage of it.
But those that were self managing, what's when I see
(05:09):
going on right now is your portfolios are doing pretty
well because frankly, everything is doing well right now. Right
it's pretty hard not to be making money in the
market at this particular time. But again back to my analogy,
when I you know, up in one eye kind of squinted,
you have to be looking down the road. And what
I noticed with quite a few of people that I
again did the evaluation on this week, they're not looking
(05:30):
down the road. And what they are they're very, very
concentrated in their portfolio, just a handful of holdings. And
you know, if you're in the right concentration, like some
of the big tech names et cetera. Yeah, you're making
a lot of money, but also you're missing out on
some other areas of the market, like the international markets,
which are have far surpassed our markets in most cases
(05:50):
on a year to day basis. So it's always a
good idea to get a second opinion of what you know,
what's going on, because it's the old adage, you can't
see the forest through the trees, right, you can't.
Speaker 1 (06:03):
You're living your life, right.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
We live, eat, and breathe this market every single day,
you know, sometimes seven days a week. I mean I
never stopped Jason never stops looking at the market, following
the news over the weekend, making sure that we're all
prepared come Monday for our clients, for the show, etc.
That's our commitment to all of you. But you got
lives to go live, right. We don't have lives. We
just take care of our clients. That's our life. So
(06:26):
you know, if you're not doing this each and every day,
you're missing out on a lot of things. And again
that's why the evaluations were so strong. I've got to
take a look and see where we are next week
on the calendar. But we may bring that offer back
again in about a week or so, you got to
finish up the ones that we've committed to. So again,
thanks to all of you. It's been a great pleasure
(06:46):
to get to meet so many of you over Zoom
and things like that, and long, long time listeners. One
gentleman told me, I've listened to you since two thousand
and one. When you start on KOH, I'm like, my gosh,
you are a loyal listener. Twenty four years. You've been
listening to my and I thank you for that, and
anybody else out there if you hung with me these
many years, thank you, thank you, thank you, and I know,
(07:07):
ok wage, thanks you. Okay, So back to the market, boy,
this is gonna be good stuff to go over. Okay,
let's hit the year to date numbers. You got the
weekly numbers again, very strong week you're to date. Hey,
this market's stinking up, folks. In this one other thing
that I saw as a takeaway from these portfolio reviews
this week.
Speaker 1 (07:24):
Many of you are sitting on a lot of cash.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
And when I asked the question why, one answer was
I don't know where to put it. Another answer was
I'm a little nervous of the market. All those are
valid reasons, But if you don't need that cash, Like,
one person had a pretty sizable sum of money sitting
in a money market and after asking some questions, we
determined that, you know, he could basically take about three
(07:49):
quarters of that cash and get it put to work
instead of this earning a couple percent in the money
market account.
Speaker 1 (07:55):
He's like, man, I didn't realize that.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
Yeah, you know, the momentum is in the market right now.
Speaker 1 (08:00):
Folks.
Speaker 2 (08:01):
If you are not playing this game right now and
it fits within your risk doledge, you are missing out.
If you're not taking advantage of some of these areas
that are moving, you are missing out. And so I
cannot stress enough how important it is to understand what
is in your portfolio, your asset allocation. Are you in
the right areas of this market? If you go I
don't know, call our office and we will be more
(08:21):
than happy to We don't have time right now to
give you the full review, but we'ren't happy to talk
to anybody anytime right or again. We take over the
management of it. Then you go live your life and
you don't have to worry about it. All right, This
market's sneaking up. These games are starting to creep up
on a year to date basis. Listen to these numbers.
NASDAK up nine point three percent year to date. Hey,
if we close, you know, pretty close to this right now,
(08:42):
if we close the books for the year, not a
bad year. SMP now up eight point six percent, the
Dow a five and a half percent gain, and the
Rustle two thousand it's starting to creep up to a
one point four percent increase. So these numbers are there,
there's kind of your benchmark. See what your portfolio is doing.
I've seen some that were far surpassing what the market
is doing here to date. I've seen others that are
(09:04):
barely up one percent. Again, it's all about being in
the right positions, the right sectors at the right time. Okay,
so you're to date, you got the numbers. Weekly, you
got the numbers. But I'm gonna go back to the
week side of things, and i mean, w e ek,
not the w eak.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Listen to this, folks.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
With this gain of the S and P five hundred
today once again twenty five point game point four zero
percent close at six thousand and three eighty eight. Listen
to this stat This was the fourteenth record close of
the year for the SMP five hundred. Think about that
for a second fourteenth record close. That is absolutely substantial.
(09:49):
Now you may go, wow, did not realize that. But again,
when I get to some of the things that we're
a bit concerned about, that could be one of those.
That could be one of those, because, as I said
to quite a few of these people that I did
the reviews for this week, I get very nervous. I've
said this all along, when we are setting record closes
(10:10):
day after day after day, every day this week, and
can it be justified, absolutely, but can it also mean
be careful? Absolutely. I'll go back to a conversation I
had with them with a portfolio review this morning. I said,
look at just to remind you, I'll remind all of
you what you have to be careful about in this environment.
(10:33):
Is this when you are closing at record levels day
after day after day after day. And those of you
that have followed me for years, you know what I'm
about to say. You wake up one day and all
of a sudden, they pull the rug out.
Speaker 1 (10:45):
From underneath you.
Speaker 2 (10:46):
The algorithms, the professional traders, They're like, we've gone up
too far, too fast. They pulled the rug out, they
start selling it off.
Speaker 1 (10:53):
And you're going, wait a minute, here, I was up,
you know.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Ten percent of my portfolio. Now I'm down five percent.
What the hell happened?
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Thing.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
That's just the way the markets work these days. They
will sell off for no reason, they will go up
for no reason. I mean, folks, I wish you could
have been sitting in my seat today when when Trump
made a comment, he was leaving the White House as
he does every Friday. He was actually getting ready to
I'll touch on later. He's heading over to Europe to
(11:21):
talk to them. But you know, as he always does,
before he gets on the helicoptery, you hear the helicopter
engines in the background. He's like, you know, taking hitting
miss questions from the from the press corps. And as
soon as he said, yeah, well you know pretty much
fifty to fifty shot that we're gonna have a deal
with Europe this weekend, boom, here comes the algorithms. This
market took off and that was our turning point this morning.
(11:44):
Who'd have ever thought that, But that's the algorithms moving
this market so fast that it's it's beyond the capability
of human being. Hence why you must have a diversified portfolio,
especially if you are self managing your money and you're
taking care of the wife, the spouse, the house, the job,
all the responsibilities you have. You cannot stay on top
of this market. We do it fourteen hours a day,
(12:06):
every single day, and it's a challenge for us sometimes.
So just keep that in mind. If you're going, wait
a minute, I'm underperforming the market, why am I? That's
the reason you're not diversified. You're not in the right areas.
You may be over concentrated or under concentrated in some areas.
Is that a word? Under concentrated? How about under allocate it?
That's better? All right?
Speaker 1 (12:26):
Last thing I want to mention about this week. What
a week it was.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
As far as earnings numbers, one hundred and sixty nine
companies of the S and P five hundred have reported
this week eighty two percent, eighty two percent have beaten
wall streets expectation. That's substantial. And as I said earlier,
guess what next week the heaviest week of earnings numbers.
Let's if we can keep that strong number eighty two
(12:49):
percent or above. As far as companies that have beat
Wall streets expectation. That is another driver and another reason
we have such a successful week. I'll continue on my
summary of the week on Wall Street and we return,
but let's first turn it over to Kristin Snow. She
is in the right and now traffic center making sure
you get home safe. Happy Friday, Kristin, Welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty
(13:10):
k which Happy Friday to all of you. I am
recapping the week on Wall Street and then looking into
next week. Oh by the way, as I mentioned earlier,
eighty two percent or about well one hundred and sixty
nine companies reported this week in the SMP. Again, that's
eighty two percent beat Wall streets expectation. One hundred and
fifty companies are going to be reporting next week. So again,
(13:31):
very very busy week, the busiest week of the earning season.
Speaker 1 (13:35):
All right.
Speaker 2 (13:35):
Once again, we finished with a gain of two eight
on the DOW, a record finished up fifty on the
NAZAK to twenty one one oh eight, and I record
close on the SMP five hundred, up twenty five points
to close at six thousand, three hundred and eighty eight.
All right, let's continue on what we what we dealt
with this week. So let's come back to the beginning
part of the week. Is this was really setting the
tone for this SMP five hundred as well as the
(13:58):
naszack continue to set records again. As I mentioned earlier,
fourteenth record closed this year. We've had on the S
and P five hundred as of today. But remember at
the beginning of the week, we had something really big happening.
That's when Trump announced a massive trade agreement with Japan
that includes a fifteen percent reciprocal tariff. He made them
kick in about five hundred and fifty billion to buy
a bunch of US goods and services and so on
(14:20):
and so forth, and so that really got the momentum
going for the week. Now looking forward to next week,
here's why the market got excited mid morning and we
kind of snapped that sell off that we were experiencing.
That is when we learned that the President is going
to be meeting with the European Union Commissioner on Sunday,
(14:40):
and actually they're going to be meeting in Scotland to
be exact, to discuss the trade deal. Now, Trump is
very optimistic, as he always is, that a deal is
going to be done, you know, probably announced on Sunday
if you kind of read between the lines of what
he was saying to the press corps.
Speaker 1 (14:58):
We don't know what it is now.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
Remember European Union, they've been kind of dragging their feet
on this thing, right obviously, very very large economy. Don't
know if they're going to try to get the same
deal or maybe better that Japan got, meaning the fifteen
percent reciprocal. But both sides, meaning the US and the
European Union, seem to be again starting to head in
the right direction of the earnings numbers or excuse me
(15:21):
of of the tariff agreement, and then you know, get
that behind us, and then we're going to be faced
with the next issue. That next issue August the first,
that is when countries that have not have not agreed
to a trade deal, that is when they're facing the deadline.
Now what is the deadline specifically, we don't know right
(15:42):
It varies from country to country. I've seen ranges between
twenty percent fifty percent. It just depends upon which country.
And the latest round of negotiations which none of us
have privy too. But August first, mark our new calendar.
That is going to be when the next round of
trade deals are supposed to be done or the new
tariffs take i'd click in. So that is a big
(16:03):
date again to be circling on your calendar. All right, again,
let's go back to this week, and then we'll get
back from breaking we'll start focusing on what's going on
next week. I want to talk about a little bit
about Intel.
Speaker 1 (16:19):
Yesterday.
Speaker 2 (16:20):
Of course, as I mentioned on the show, Intel reported
numbers for the most part, not real good numbers. But
here's what really got everybody. So today the stock finished down.
Let's see what we finished out about a buck ninety six,
eight point sixty six percent lost to twenty sixty seven.
Here's what was interesting, folks. Again, kind of bad numbers.
(16:41):
It looks like their new CEO is really starting to
clamp down on excess spending. He says we're no longer
an open checkbook. But here's what got me in the announcement.
And I didn't really pick it up that much or
hear it much, you know, from the press, but I
think it's very important. Intel announced in their earnings release
yesterday that they are going to get rid of fifteen
percent of their global workforce Okay, so yours truly decided
(17:07):
this morning when that news came out, do a little checking.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Get this.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
As of the end of last year, Intel had one
hundred and eight thousand, nine hundred employees globally. One hundred
and eight thousand, nine hundred, simple math. Fifteen percent. That's
sixteen thousand employees that are going to lose their job
or have already lost them. Sixteen thousand. Think about that. Now,
(17:33):
let's put that in perspective. Remember it was a few
weeks ago when Microsoft said, hey, we're getting rid of
four percent of our global workforce, and that was about
nine thousand jobs on top of the eighteen thousand they
announced back in May. So there's seventeen thousand there, here's
sixteen thousand with Intel, but smaller company from payroll standpoint,
and they cited AI is one of the reasons. And
(17:54):
of course we know it's cost cutting and many other things.
But I was talking to about talking to my brother
this morning about this, and he's actually been to Intel
and toured them and so on and so forth with
his focus on AI and and having his PhD.
Speaker 1 (18:07):
In that area, et cetera. And he's like, you know
what this is?
Speaker 2 (18:12):
He said, look at the common denominator, and it was
it was true. He goes, look at the common denominator
of the Microsoft layoffs, some of the Google layoffs, Metal layoffs,
and now Intel two letters AI. So again join us
this Monday when my brother, doctor Denis Sanchez, the AI doctor,
joins me again as we did last Monday, and we
talked about AI and how to look at AI not
(18:33):
as your foe but as your friend. It was interesting
to get some of your comments throughout the week from
those of you that said, like one gentleman got a
hold of me and said, look at my daughter who
was in middle management, she just lost her job to AI,
and some of those type of stories like that.
Speaker 1 (18:51):
So this is this is real life stuff, folks.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
There's going to be a lot of rounds of layoffs
going on that are attributed to AI, and again Intel
being the latest one to announced that.
Speaker 1 (19:01):
So there's that. Let's see.
Speaker 2 (19:04):
Oh, this was a week of course where we had
a lot of the meme stocks which I can't really
talk a lot about, but open Door, Cole's Rocket Companies,
Krispy Kreme, they all started earlier in the week. Open
Door was up over one hundred and fifteen percent on Monday. Again,
these all got targeted by the as a you know,
a meme stock, meaning all the day traders and stuff
jumping into him. Most of them fizzled as the week progressed.
(19:26):
Let's see, really that was about it. Now when we
come back, let's start talking about next week, and then
we'll wrap things up with a couple of concerns that
I have, nothing major, but just some things to think about.
Starting over to Jack Saban, he's got news traffic on weather. Hey, Jack,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven
(19:46):
to eighty K, which i'll be Friday to all of
you once again. We gained two eight on the dowt
Nazak rose fifty, the SMB up twenty five record finishes
for the Nasdaq, and the.
Speaker 1 (19:54):
SMP five hundred.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
All right, so now we're going to move into now
you know what happened today, Let's rub the crystal ball
a little bit. Let's focus into next week, start talking
about some of the important events that are going to happen.
All right, folks, Wednesday, of course, e eleven o'clock our time.
We're gonna get a fit interest rate decision that'll be
followed at eleven thirty by the press conference, and well,
(20:16):
excuse me, yeah, followed by the press conference. And so
that's going to be a very important one. About a
quarter percent probability that we're gonna, you know, get an
interest right cut as many you know are hoping for,
as in the President. But the street right now has
(20:39):
a peg that you know, we are not going to
have that, you know. Yeah, I just want to double
check one thing on the date. Okay, so remember that
date starts or that meeting starts to day. Meeting starts
July the thirty, this one, to double check that. And
then of course the decision on the thirty first, as
I said at eleven o'clock. So again no one is
pegging for the street or on the street for the Fed.
Speaker 1 (21:02):
To cut rates.
Speaker 2 (21:04):
It'll be important once again to see, of course, we
played to you yesterday. Of course, what happened with the President.
I'm sure many of you watched it on the internet,
the meeting between Jerome Palll and President Trump at the
Federal Reserve regarding the budgets overhaul. And then the President
whips out a piece of paper to Jerome pal and says,
you know you're like two point three billion over a
(21:24):
budget and Powell looks at it and says, well, wait
a minute, here, that's the third building. And Trump says, yeah,
that's right, and Pal's like, no, that was you know,
that's not part of this whole budget situation.
Speaker 1 (21:35):
Yes it is. No, it's not, mister president. They got
into it a little bit.
Speaker 2 (21:39):
Again, it's so obvious that that was set up to
embarrass Jerome Palll. But later in a press conference, Trump said, hey,
you know what, I'm not going to be firing him.
You know he's going to be out soon enough. So
we had that issue. So we will see if which
you know, no one, I don't think this has any influence,
but we'll see if Jerome Palell and the rest of
the Fed come under pressure from President Trump to cut rates.
(22:00):
And I know the answer to that is no. But
that's what you're going to be reading about over these
next few days, and you'll read about, of course after
the FED interest rate decision, so it'll be a non event.
Of course, it's always very exciting to see and hear
what the chairman has to say at the press conference,
So expect no interest, right cut, But let's see if
there's some hints at the press conference at eleven thirty
(22:21):
on Wednesday as to win the next cut. And remember,
you know, there's no meeting in August, so we're not
gonna hear from the Fed again in regards to a
formal interest rate meeting until September. So got a ways
to go, all right. So that's one factor, a very
big factor, of course, coming our way. We also on Friday,
we are going to have the non farm payroll numbers,
(22:41):
as if the Fed's not enough, we will find out,
of course, how the nation's employment situation is looking. They're
looking for this number to drop pretty big. Last month
or excuse me, the month of well, yeah, it would
be jeez, I'm sorry, it's late, or it's Friday. Month
of July will be these numbers. So if we go
back to June, we had about one hundred and forty
(23:02):
seven thousand jobs created. They're expecting that number to drop
to about ninety five thousand. Looking for a little tick
of an up to in the unemployment rate about one
tenth of a percent from four point one to four
point two, so on and so forth. So that will
that will come our way next Friday. On August the
first all right, So we have that now. As I
(23:22):
said it a couple times already, and I'll say it
once again, it's gonna be the busiest week of the
earning season. We have some of the big heavyweights, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft,
et cetera. They'll be a reporting next week. So far,
the numbers have been good. I will say that one
takeaway that I'm seeing now that we have a couple
of weeks of earnings under our belt, is this, if
a company has a slight miss or there's something in
(23:43):
the report, the earnings report that the street doesn't like,
they are pounding these stocks there there. I mean, you
saw what happened with Tesla, you know, big drop yesterday
over twenty bucks and here you know, rebounds a little
over eleven dollars today. So it gives you a lot
of volatility. There's a lot of volatility. Again, they're not
asking any question. You miss or you give. More importantly,
you give a bad guidance and they're gonna punish you.
(24:05):
So so far, the banks have been decent, the tech
names have been really good for the most part, and
so I don't expect anything negative out of Amazon or
Meta or Microsoft next week to to derail that side
of it. As I mentioned earlier, we have the trade uncertainty.
Of course, we've got August first trade deadline. Uh, you know,
we're still struggling with Canada and Mexico. And then as
(24:25):
I said, and then you just heard on the national news,
which again I don't ever know what's on the national news.
It just tells you I'm on top of this stuff
for you. You know, President should is meeting on Sunday with
the EU and should have a decision, So that could
be a nice boost to the I know he likes
to do that, give news good news on Sunday afternoons,
and then that affects the futures market on Sunday, and
then of course it usually carries over overnight and then
(24:47):
we get a nice little bump come come Monday morning.
So that's about it as far as uh, you know,
things that that we have for next week, so very
busy to recap made earnings week, FED meeting, non farm
payroll numbers. All right, that's not going to be enough.
So now let's let's put a little wet blanket on
(25:08):
this party. Right here, we have fourteen that record closes
this year so far in the s and P five hundred.
I think you know, the streak is something that we
have to watch very very closely. I want to give
you a little stat before I get into my concerns, right,
So I came across interesting statistic from BTIG, their chief
market technician, Jonathan Krinsky, pretty well respected on Wall Street.
(25:32):
He came out today and said the following.
Speaker 1 (25:34):
He said, look.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
This, He said that the last time that the Nasdaq
one hundred, right, So that's well, I can't say the terms,
but there's an ETF that tracks that, but it's the
top one hundred stocks of the NASDAK.
Speaker 1 (25:49):
Right.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
He said, the last time the Nasdaq one hundred went
sixty straight days without closing below its twenty day moving average,
which is what's happened to us. So remember the twenty
day moving average. If you hear Jason I talked about this.
If you look at the price level or the price
performance of a stock or ETF, et cetera over the
(26:10):
last twenty days, the average price, right, that's the twenty
day moving average.
Speaker 1 (26:13):
So you when.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
You're charting the technical side of it, you look at
twenty day moving average fifty one hundred, two hundred day
those are your main ones you look at is your charting.
So twenty days is the twenty day average of the
Nasdaq one hundred.
Speaker 1 (26:27):
He said.
Speaker 2 (26:28):
The last time the Nasdaq one hundred went sixty straight
days without closing below the twenty day moving average, that
was a short term indicator, and that was in nineteen
ninety nine, just before the dot com bubble burst. Now
my argument to that is Alan Greenspan was the one
(26:49):
that caused the dot com bubble burst. It wasn't this
stat So take it with a grain of salt. Fun
to talk about just another indicator we need to be,
you know, thinking about as we continue to climb the
walls of games and record closes. All right, so let's
get in a couple of my concerns. One thing I'm
watching very closely margin debt. Margin debt. So remember margin
(27:10):
is where you're borrowing against your taxable accounts, can't borrow
against iras. So margin debt has now surged over eighteen
percent just from April to June, and it is now
higher than it was during the dot com bubble era.
So what does that mean? That means people or are
(27:30):
so optimistic about the market and they're holdings and so
on and so forth. They're borrowing money to go out
and buy more stocks, like a mini hedge fund in
a sense. Now, I've shared stories with you over the years.
I won't bore you with them again. I remember that,
you know, like it was yesterday that dot com era.
I had people coming and going, oh yeah, I just
mortgaged my house and took out a big you know
(27:52):
homeq whit you ligne on credit for half a million
bucks because hey, I know I can double that money.
It's the dot com era, right, Things are just going
to continue to go up and up and up and up,
and then again here comes the dot com bubble bust
and poor guy lost his house. It wasn't a client.
Poor guy lost his house, destroyed his portfolio, etc. So
we watch this very closely. So this tells us that
investors are very, very very optimistic about this market. I
(28:16):
think that's a good thing. But again, all it takes
is a consecutive time period of the market going down.
And if your position, remember you can borrow in most
cases borrow up to fifty percent of the value of
your account. You got one hundred thousand dollar account, you
can borrow fifty thousand bucks and go buy to your
heart's content for that fifty thousand. But remember, if let's
say your account again was worth a one hundred thousand,
(28:38):
if the holdings drop, Let's say we have a couple
of days of the market going down and your account's
now worth ninety thousand, you would get a ten thousand
dollars margin call. And again I've been on that side.
Speaker 1 (28:49):
That's why I.
Speaker 2 (28:50):
Dissuade clients from getting margins, because I don't like being
the bill collector. Your broker's from will Nowadays they email
you and say, look at you got a ten thousand
dollars margin call.
Speaker 1 (28:58):
You got two choices. We need the money.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
It's that same day, either your wire in the money
or we have to sell off the some stocks in
your portfolio. And let me tell you, they don't give
a damn what stocks they sell for. You could create
big capital gains, that could create losses whatever they are
not fun. So if you're part of this eighteen percent
that's margining your account, please understand what you're doing and
absolutely understand the risk. All right, when we come back,
(29:21):
got a couple more points, is just again a few concerns,
nothing major, But that's my job. I'll see you in
just a few moments. Let's wrap it up with Kristen
snow right now Traffic Center. Hello Kristin, Welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on Newstock seven to eighty koaitch,
all right, We've recapped the week, we recapped the day,
the month, what we see going on. We've looked forward
to the calendar as to what is going to be
(29:42):
on store for next week. Now I'm just beginning my
discussion on some concerns I have. So before we went
to break, I talked about margin debt surging over eighteen
percent from April through June. So that again tells us
you the retail investor, you're going out, you're borrowing against
your account to go buy more stocks. Very risky if
you're doing it, be very careful. Second concern I have
(30:04):
a little bit. You know, this happens a lot, and
we've had this discussion many times over the years. Very
narrow leadership in the rally. Right, We're doing better than
we have in the past, but we're still very narrowed
that you know, majority of these games are really focused
on the megacap tech names, the AI plays, et cetera.
Still would like to see a little bit broader diversification
that again gives you more of a stable market instead
(30:26):
of everything just kind of being focused in on one
or two certain areas of the market. So again, nothing major,
but just something to think about. This one does have
me a little bit more concern consumer debt. You know,
you're not hearing a lot about this, but this is
something that we follow very closely because consumer debt tells
us the health of you the consumer. And if you,
(30:46):
the consumer are struggling with debt, you're not going to
be investing. And if you're not investing, that doesn't help
the stock market. And most importantly, you're not out buying products,
which again fuel earnings per share for companies. So consumer
debt is very important. So here's just a little bit
of information I want to share with you now before
I get to some data very quickly, I want to
(31:08):
remind somebody I haven't had a chance to mention this,
so I thought i'd take this opportunity. I know with
a younger generation, there's a big push many of you
are using buy now, pay later plans. Okay, I'm not
going to say any names. You know what I'm talking about, Well,
what you may have not known is up until recently April.
(31:31):
The first matter of fact, B and P loans again
by Now pay Later, they didn't show up on your
credit report. Well as of April the first one of
the biggest names in that buy now, Pay Later, and
that name starts with an A, began reporting all buy
now pay later installment plans to the Credit Reporting Bureau experience.
(31:52):
It later expanded to TransUnion, and this includes both short
term and longer term loans, both timely and late payment activity.
So if you do have these buy now Paid later
loans and all of a sudden you see A dropping
your credit report, that is most likely the reason if
you had delinquencies on those, because again before April first,
(32:14):
they weren't reported. They're now reported, So keep an eye
on that. So that takes me my next one. Real
quick credit card debt. Credit card debts actually built in
the first quarter of this year about one point one
eight trillion dollars, but delinquency rates are rising. As of
the first quarter, twelve point one percent of card holders
were thirty plus days late, twelve point one percent, fourteen
(32:37):
point one percent of card holders without standing debt were delinquent.
Those are levels that we have not seen since the
two thousand and eight time period. And finally a record
amount eleven point one percent are stuck making only minimum payments.
Auto loans, they're surging two point nine percent of loans
with our ninety days past due, and student loans ninety
(33:00):
let's see seven point seven to eight percent of student
loans we're ninety plus days late. Because remember those also,
you got to start paying those now, so on so forth.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
So you know, the consumer just be careful.
Speaker 2 (33:13):
You know again, it's it's easy to see these get
your debts get, you know, rolling up, and before you
know it, you got a massive credit card debt that
you can't pay or some of these others. So overall,
we're in great shave. Folks, have a great week, and
we'll do it again on Monday.
Speaker 1 (33:26):
Doublass. This program was sponsored by Sanchez gune To Capital Management, LLC.
The material in this program was intended as general information
only and should not be taken as specific investment, tax
or legal advice.
Speaker 2 (33:40):
None of the information on this broadcast was intended to
be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
Speaker 1 (33:46):
Further information is available by contacting at Sanchez Gaunt dot
com or seven seven five eight hundred and one eighth one.
Speaker 2 (33:53):
John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through Independent Financial
Group LLC, a registered BOKER Dealer.
Speaker 1 (34:00):
And Investment Advisor member FINRA SIPC. Securities offered only in States.
Speaker 2 (34:05):
John Sanchez is registered in Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management LLC.
Speaker 1 (34:10):
In Independent Financial Group LLC are unaffiliated entities
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