August 7, 2025 • 34 mins
Today on the Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm, we’re diving into the July real estate report for Northern Nevada. Prices, inventory, interest rates, and what it all means for buyers and sellers heading into the fall. If you’re thinking about making a move, don’t miss this market update!
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Good Thursday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez
Show on News Talk seven eighty k which it's a
pleasure to be with you and a pleasure to be
with my co host. We have a full house around
the horn. We shall go, mister de White Millard Highland's mortgage.
How are you, my friend?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm doing fantastic, John, How are you very good?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Thank you, very good? Corey d Jedge Reality, Big c.
What's the good word?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Always good stuff going on? Summer?
Speaker 1 (00:29):
There you go, there you go, all the all the
pardon me, all the the parents that get to stay
at home are like, oh thank god, they're all going
back to school. Now I can get a break and
get back to my normal schedule.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Just just doesn't say that, does she.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I'll keep that one to my exactly. I don't know
if the kids are super excited. It's so funny because
I'm sure all your kids are the same way, Like,
nobody wants to go to school, and then after the
first day they want to go back. So it's right
right away, a whole just you.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Know, it's being sixty one years old and many years
since I was in school or much less my kids, well,
I was obviously longer than the kids. I just get
amazed every time, Like hearing Jack's story about you know,
the the traffic finds and things like that, it's like,
and then you're saying it, it's like it seems like
every year they start school earlier and earlier. I mean,
remember Dwight, when when you and I were going to school,
and probably you too, Corey. You know you could count
(01:22):
on like after after Memorial Day, right or Liberty Extra
day after Labor Day. Yeah, that's when you started school.
Now it's like, you know, a month ahead of time.
It just like every It's crazy.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
You guys got the one room schoolhouse, this is.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
True and walked Hey, hey, hey, you know I did
walk through I did walk through three feet of snow
a mile to the school bus when I lived in
washall value as a kid and my kids, you know joke, Yeah, dude,
you had walk I literally did. I literally I can
still see it like it was yesterday.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
And John, they never canceled school back.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
Then, right, oh no, heck no, geez. You guys remember
growing up the amount of snow that we used to
get in northern Nevada, right, you know, in the in
the seventies and stuff like that. Yeah, jeezus, it was
never I didn't know what that was at that point.
It canceled school day, come on now, and and and
(02:17):
and and also you know, let's roll this in. I
don't know about you guys, but I never got taken
to school by my parents, right I. It was it
was the bus or you don't go to school. So
I never had that luxury of sitting in a nice
car and having a mom or dad. Yeah. Well I
was too far for a bike, you know, you know,
until I moved to Reno and you know, middle school.
(02:38):
But uh but yeah, yeah, it's man, memories there, memories there.
So all you kids don't complain that school is starting.
You know you could. You don't have to walk through
snow anymore like we did. Oh goodness, all right, folks,
Well let me tell you what we have lined up
for you. We're gonna recap a bit of a rough
day to day. If you, at least if you had
some investments that were correlated to the Dow or the
S and P. If you got has that investments in there,
(03:01):
now you're doing okay today, but yeah, a little bit
of a sloppy market. Tell you all the reasons behind that,
and then we get to get into one of my
favorite shows we get to do each and every month
the courtesy of mister Edge, and that is, of course,
our local real estate data, the market review for the
month of July. Corey going, I'm gonna talk out of
two sides of my mouth here. The first side is
(03:21):
going to be the right side, and that is kudos
to you. Kudos to you too, Dwight for calling for
the slowdown in the real estate market months ago. The
left side of my mouth, I'm going to talk out
of is man. These numbers don't look good. I'll I'll
just kind of lay it that way. I don't like
the medium price coming down. I don't like how long
it's taken, the number of closed sales coming down. There's
(03:43):
a you know, a number of new listings, there's This
is not a great report, mister Edge, not a great report.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Now. I mean, obviously we're skewed right because the last
two two and a half years have just been gangbusters
money every single month, but it's always recovered itself and
this one may do the same thing. But this is
the I said multiple times it was a pretty slow spring.
The summer didn't get any better, and now we're going
into what normally will be the slower part of the year.
(04:11):
So well, we'll see. I have some conversations today, and
I'm sure we'll talk about it, Like you know what
that interest rates that say that this and that it
may not be anything. I mean, there's really nothing wrong
with it. It's just a matter of markets. You know,
that's how they work, you know, Corey.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
That was the point that I was going to bring up,
and you beat me right to the punch, and that
is I don't think anymore, guys, that it is one thing.
I think it's a culmination of different items. I think
it's as we discuss all the time. It's the stubborn
high thirty year mortgage rate. It's people, literally, I mean,
I have these conversations. I don't know if you guys do,
especially the younger people, they're fearful if they work in
(04:49):
any type of office setting, they're fearful of losing their
jobs to AI. I mean, this is a real, real
trend that's going on in our country, as I keep
talking about almost every single day. For full of that.
They're just nervous overall, right, the stock market I mean,
you know, you look at it. Here we are, you know,
starting the eighth the month out of the year, and
(05:09):
you know, we're really haven't budgeted that much on a
year to date basis on the market. So they're not
seeing huge gains in their four oh one CA's last month.
Most people probably lost money. And you know, Mark was
pretty sloppy in the month of July, so they're not
feeling that wealth effect from the four oh one K
side of things. So I think, guys, it's a it's
a combination of things. And then of course prices continue
(05:30):
to go up. In their personal life, it's costing them
more to go to the grocery store. God, my wife
told me something the other day because I you know,
I never go to the grocery store, and I was
just like, you gotta be kidding me. Oh, I think yeah.
I think it was a it was a case of water.
I think it was. I'm like, well, yeah, it's like,
what three dollars and fifty cents. She starts to laughing
because I like the sawny water. She's like, no, it's
(05:51):
like twelve dollars. I'm like, where, what in the heck
are you doing? You know, just that that is an example,
and so you know it's costing people more money, and
then of course the ice of homes they continue to
go up. So don't you guys agree that it's really
not one thing anymore? I e. Rates that it's more
of a culmination of things.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Absolutely, and that's why I don't think there's an easy
I don't want to say there's not an easy fix
because I don't know that it's particularly broken, but there's
not one thing someone can do to get you back to,
you know, going up ten percent per year for the
next five years. It's it's just not going to happen.
That's not how the markets work.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right, Dwight.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Yeah, no, I completely agree with what you guys are saying.
It is just you can't fix You can't find one thing.
It's a combination of a lot of things. And everybody's
got a different story, right, everybody's got a little different
story and not all the same. If it was all
the same, we could fix it, but it's not.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
It's got a little different spin on it.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Yeah, right, right, exactly. So yeah, so we'll get into
that discussion absolutely as we like I said, reveal the
July real estate data. All right, speaking of revealing, let's
go to the stock market side of things today. Guys.
You know, we had a heck of a pre mark
concession going. We're up a couple hundred points going into
the opening bell at six thirty this morning, and you know,
it looked like overall it had the feeling that this
(07:07):
could be a decent day. We had a obviously a
bit of a of a sloppy day. You know, we
go back and look at yesterday. You know, we had
pretty good gains, but not compared to where we closed yesterday.
We were up eighty one on the doll to fifty
two gain on the Nasdaq, So we had some nice momentum.
But again, after the close yesterday, we had the President
(07:27):
come out and announce, you know, the the new tariff
amounts that became effective for a lot of countries effective today,
effective as of midnight last night. So that went on
the market a little bit. And then you had that
news yesterday afternoon simultaneous when he was shaking hands with
Tim Cook of Apple, where Apple said, yeah, we're going
(07:47):
to invest in another hundred million here in the US
and infrastructure and buildings et cetera, on top of the
five hundred million that we already committed. And then he
came out and said, Okay, basically, you know, any company
that is importing their semiconductor chips here into the US,
you're gonna essentially have a one hundred percent tariff. And
so it was very surprising to me we actually had
the semiconductor stocks actually hold up okay today, which it
(08:11):
really could have gone another way. Now, you know, I'll
give you I'll give you an example. You take a
company like, oh, let's go AMD Advanced micro Devices finish
the day up nine dollars and forty nine cent, six
point one percent gain. You had Navidia up about a
little over two dollars, about two dollars and eight cents.
So it was really, uh, you know, pretty strong showing
there because the thinking on the street was, hey, a
(08:32):
lot of these companies Thaiwan Semiconductor another one right, you think,
wait a minute, it's got the name Taiwan in there.
They import a lot of their chips. No, they have
facilities here. So they surged eleven dollars and sixty three cents.
That was really our only real saving grace today was
the uh, the semiconductors. Again, these companies already are or
as the President said, if you have committed to start
(08:53):
building in the US, you are you know this, This
new hundred percent tariff is not going to affect you.
So again, this could have gone a lot a lot
of different directions. We continue to have great strength and
Apple today up six dollars and seventy eight cents after
a massive run up yesterday. Right now it's trading up
seven dollars and thirty four cents in the after hour session.
So you've got a few names that are holding in
(09:13):
there pretty well. But then you've got others like Eli Lilly,
which just got pounded today down one hundred and five
dollars and seventy six cents, fourteen point one seven percent
loss to six forty sixty one great earning these numbers
that were released this morning. But simultaneously the company said
we're trying a new weight loss drug pill and some
pharmaceutical trials. The trials did not go well, and that's
(09:37):
all the street focused on. So right now we're getting
priced for perfection. You better hit your numbers, You better
give a great guidance as we're in an earning season
or your stocks are going to sell off, so you've
got that going on, so somewhat of a mixed market.
Like I said, we finished down two twenty four on
the Dow today, we actually were down over three hundred
at our worst level, finished up seventy three on the
(09:57):
NASDAK and down just five on the SMP, So a
lot of that pressure was obviously on the Dow side.
Caterpillar was a disaster today, ten dollars and two cent loss,
no real specific news on the company salesforce down eight
dollars and sixty two cents, So those are some big
drags along with Visa that really pressured the Dow side
of things. On the economic front, we had productivity for
(10:20):
the second quarter come in that showed a two point
four percent gained a little bit better than the two
percent estimate. Unit labor costs right, one of the biggest
expenses of any business, the labor side, rising one point
six percent. That was a little bit hotter than the
one and a half percent expectation. The jobs front, which
again is so very critical, up seven thousand filings for
the state unemployment benefit and then the continuing claims rising
(10:43):
thirty eight thousand people to one million, nine hundred and
seventy four thousand. So the other big aspect that happened
today is right before the close, the President announced, if
he had a true social that he selected doctor Stephen
Moran to serve in the former Fed Governor Kugler's just
vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January thirty,
(11:03):
first of the year twenty twenty six. And then he said,
in the meantime, I'm going to be searching for a
permanent replacement. This is a subject we've been talking a
lot about this week. Again, I gave the analogy of
trying to take over a board, right, a company wanted
to take over a board to influence them. That's what
we think the president's trying to do is trying to
get a lot of his own people on the Federal Reserve,
on the FOMC member board that those type of things,
(11:26):
any influence he can to start bringing these rates down.
I think he's trying to do that. So that was
very important today when he made that announcement. And then
Chris Waller, which was the one of two dissenting votes
in the FOMC meeting last week, and regarding interest rates,
looks like he has moved to the top of the
list at least at this point, to replace Chairman Powell
(11:47):
when his term is up in May of next year.
So a lot of action going on as far as
the FED. And like I said, you start talking about
the FED and influences from the President, etc. Mark he
gets a little jittery on that side of it. All right,
we come back. Let's go to the commodities, the interest
rates of the mortgage side, and then get started into our
July real estate data. It's turned over the wonderful kristin
snow right now traffic center.
Speaker 5 (12:06):
Hello, my dear, Yes, yep, oh man.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
Yeah, I know that's the thing. Yeah, I know, yeah, Christa.
I mean you're too young to know this, but you know,
Dwight and now we're the old guys here. You know,
when did you ever buy a bottle of water? You
drink it out of the tap. But you just can't
do that anymore. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show
(12:41):
on New Stock seven to eighty koh with Dwight Mallart
of Highlands Mortgage in Coryage of Edge Reality two twenty
four loss on the doll point five to one percent
and Nazac Cup seventy three, the SMP down five. You know, guys,
I'm getting bashed by my daughter Brooke. During the break,
she sent me a text. You want me to read
it to you about my my walking in the snow.
She said, you did not, in capital letters, ever walked
(13:03):
to school. Stop lying to the public. Doris Sanchez would
never allow that. And I said, I never said I
walked to school. I walked to the bus stop. So
I'm sorry if I didn't clarify that I walked to
the bus stop three feet of snow. Bus stop was
about a half a mile away there in Washall Valley,
I said. Doris never drove me the half a mile
to the bus stop. She made me walk. And there
(13:25):
was also snow drifts. We remember those snow drifts, you guys,
and the in Washall Valley in those days. Yeah, snow
drifts could be five feet tall. Had those to go again?
So man, getting called out by your own kid, getting
called out by your own kid, I tell you what.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Yeah she was the one that got.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. Yeah, she's the one that you know,
used to get carted by mom to school every single
day and daycare every day. So yeah, live out in
Washall Valley in the seventies brook just do that. Oh goodness,
all right, let's go to the commodity side. Forty nine
cent loss on oil sixty three eighty eight a barrel
up nineteen dollars and ninety cent scold two thousand and
(14:00):
four fifty three seventy ms millard two basis point increase
ten near treasure. We close for twenty four. Talk to
us about mortgage rates, my friend.
Speaker 4 (14:08):
Yes, we got a little relief even from Tuesday. John,
we're at six point five y five on the thirty
year fixed. And I know you like to watch the
fifteen or close right now, so it's it's five point
ninety two, so you know a little bit, you know,
just a tick or to relief from Tuesday. But yeah, yeah,
it's it's it's a it's an interesting, interesting market.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
So I like it.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
I like your I gotta watch it. I gotta watch
it like every hour now, Oh.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
You do you do? Yeah, it's it's ticking like the
stock market is.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
I like I like the chart pattern right now, Dwight,
you're definitely definitely moving down at this point. I want
to talk to you a little bit dwight looking at
other again mortgage products. Okay, so, like you said, the
thirty year at six fifty five, the fifteen at five
ninety two, but I want to talk to about this
seven six so for ARM at six twelve and the
thirty year FHA at six twelve, thirty year VA at
(15:01):
six thirteen, where you've seen the desire or are you
at all on this seven sixth so far ARM, because
I haven't really been hearing much about that, but I
was kind of attracted at that low rate of six
twelve compared to a thirty year, So talk to us
about that real quick. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
So it's a product that's pretty limited, John, It's limited
to a lot of just local institutions. That's why you're
not seeing a lot of traction out of it. We
have some local ones in Reno area that use them.
It's an attractive product because you know it's that lower rate,
but it is a fixed product, you know, overseeing the
box is pretty small. But yeah, you're starting to see
(15:38):
a few people take advantage of it. But as these
rates start to drop down, why would you go v.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
To growing point four off?
Speaker 4 (15:44):
You know, right right on a thirty or fix? So
I think as you start to see those rates drop,
I think those arms are going to stay somewhat elevated,
and you might start to see, you know, that product
maybe even starting to go away or you know, base out,
because it just won't be attractive anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
But it does have some value to some people.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Why in the world are the thirty year VA loans
at six thirteen not any lower? Right? I mean, Lord knows,
these you know, heroes are vets deserve better than kind
of a standard rate. You know, again, thirty year Faha's
at six twelve, thirty year VA at six thirteen? Is
that normal? I just picked up on that. I always
(16:26):
thought the thirty year VA is always going to be
a bit lower, but it's not long.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
I'm going to take you way back, John, back to
the eighties or the nineties. The VA used to dictate
their rate. Remember, they would tell you what the rate is,
and that's all the rate you could give them. And
if you weren't careful, you could get caught either way
on an increase or a decrease, and if you got
a decrease, they had to come with points, if you know.
So it was kind of crazy, but I think it's
(16:49):
you've seen for a very long time the government q
pons that Jenny Mays trading very close. But I would
agree with you. I would think that there would be
some sort of benefit to the veteran out there. You know,
they get that through the maybe an elimination of the
VA funding fee, no mortgage insurance, those types of things,
but you know, why not help them out a little more.
(17:11):
And you know there are.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Some institutions that do that specifically, but really, but they do.
They do trade pretty pretty close. So they have been
trading pretty close for quite some time.
Speaker 4 (17:22):
But you're but what's interesting, John, real quick as you're
seeing the convention now kind of get closer and closer
to the government. So I mean we've been sixty basis
points different, even seventy and now you're only about what
thirty five basis points different?
Speaker 1 (17:36):
Yeah, yeah, forty three? Yeah, yeah, very good. Closing closing
the gap there, That's what I like to see. I
just like that sub seven of Dwight and I love
that sub seven. All right, folks, when we get back,
you want to know how your real estate's doing. Is
it time to buy, is it time to sell? We're
gonna have all those details for you when the boys
go through the market review for the month of July,
and like I said, not the best reports. You want
to listen closely if you're looking to buy, looking to sell,
(18:00):
of all the details for you. But firstlet's turn over
to Jack Saban. Speaking of details, he's gonna give us
news traffic on weather. Hey, Jack, welcome back to the
John Sanchez Show. In his talk seven eighty koh with
Dwight Mallard of Highlands Mortgage and Corey Intividulity once again
to two thirty four decline on the Dow, up seventy
three on the Nasdaq, in a lower by five on
the SMB. All right, folks, let's get into our July
(18:21):
real estate data. Again, not the best report, but we're gonna,
we're gonna, we're gonna dig into it. We're gonna get
the experts here to enlighten us on what's going on. Okay,
mister Edge, as we always do, I will lead the pack.
You will interpret our median home price in the month
of July. I remember this is in for reno and
sparks single family residences, so we're not including condos, townhouses
(18:41):
or anything to single family residences. Medium price dropped two
point six percent from June to July, bringing our medium
price now of five hundred ninety three thousand, nine hundred
and eighty four a decline of two point six percent
year over year. Talk to me, Corey, talk to me.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
I mean, and when you look at just the percentage basis,
it's not the most horrible thing in the world. Remember,
I've been saying this for a while and mostly if
if it stays true this year, but fourth of July
is sipically the top of the market. Things start, they're
slow down right after that, and so this is kind
of what you're seeing. We'll get into the clothes sales
and the rest of the reasons why, but that that's
(19:19):
usually the crescendo and then it's just a slow grind
down into the holidays. So to me, it's not surprising
to see the price come down, and two point six
percent isn't the worst thing in the world, but we
have it. We've had a slow spring in summer, so
it's it's coming down off of what we're already kind
of lower lower numbers.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
To begin with, I did not realize that fourth of
July was the peak of the year. That's interesting I've
never heard of. It's.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Yeah, it's not always that way. But if you look
at like, for instance, the last three years, right around
and the June fourth of July, that's always been kind
of your highest price point, and then things slow down
from there. So I don't want, you know, don't mark
your calendars, because as soon as I say it will
get a big.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
Bump up, I'll be August next year.
Speaker 3 (20:01):
That's what it's done the last few years of it.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Okay, very good, Dwight. You're lending across the country, indicative
of what you're seeing elsewhere in the Texas area other
parts of the country with the medium price coming down
a bit.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Yeah, to Corey's point, I mean, the percentage isn't isn't
that big of a deal, But I mean, if you could,
it'll be interesting to see the next consecutive months if
you continue to accelerate a little bit more or anything
like that. But there's definitely a little softening. I just
had this conversation the other day yesterday, the softening that
just seemed to be occurring around the country, And I mean,
(20:37):
I don't holt anything alarming right now, but it goes
back to all those things we talked about in the beginning, right,
everybody's got a little story going on and lots of
moving parts.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Yep, exactly. Well, again, kudos to you guys. You guys
have been saying this is happening for months now, and
now it's you were saying it before it showed up
in the data. So once again to you're both true professionalism. Okay, Corey,
let's go to the next one. I don't like the
closed sales. We had four hundred and three closed sales,
down seven point four percent, so you know, again you're
(21:07):
probably talking with twenty five, twenty seven or something like
that as far as actual units. Obviously percentage is much,
but you know we're only talking four hundred or so
closed units. So down seven point four percent on closed
sales from June to July. Your over year down two
point two percent.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
No, it's again it's not a huge number, but it's
still only four hundred sales. You know what, this does
not take into account new home so this is all
just resale MLS data. Some of the new homes are
on there, so it might you know, sneak a few
of them in there, but you're still talking a small
number for this size area to do that. So and
we'll get into more of the details, because I think
(21:45):
I think the tale of why this is happening is
down towards the bottom of this report. But yes, I agree,
things are just kind of grinding and slowing again after
fourth of July. That usually happens. But we've been talking
about it and talking about it and talking about it,
and it's showing up in the dead and I'm still
getting I said this every time, I'm getting emails all
the time for open houses and price what I say
(22:07):
the other day, they don't call them price droughts anymore.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
They call them like price improvement.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
That's the term. Don't you can't price improvements. You still
have all these things going on. And there's another weird
thing that's happening in the market, which we'll get to
later in the report, that's causing some of this. So
just kind of influx, kind of like your world, right,
like when things are about ready to change, everything gets
a little skewed, and that's what's happening. Yep.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Okay, So our medium price is down, our number of
closed sales are down. Let's go to number three. The
median days to contract thirty one days which still is
not bad, but it's an increase of thirty five point
six percent from June and up sixty point five percent
from a year ago.
Speaker 3 (22:49):
And so median days to contracts, so when you put
your house on this is all NLS datus. When you
put your house alive on the NLS to the time
it goes pending, that is your days to contract. That's
how they get this number. Thirty one days doesn't sound
like a long time, but you remember for a while
there we were at two days, four days.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So you see where we're kind of trending here, and
that just tells me that the inventory that's on the
markets price to the buyers are rejecting it, and they'll
continue to reject it, because these buyers aren't dumb.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
But I think you guys said about three or four
months ago that that was kind of the turning point
into or from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
In this data substantiates that.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
It's it's trending that direction. I would still say it's
kind of on the seller side because the prices haven't
really dropped super bad yet, but it's certainly trending towards
the buyer's side, because there's a lot more to look at,
and you can go home and think about it, and
you can come back a week later and it's probably
still there, which is not what we're used.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
To, Right, you were trying to see in some of
your other reports, Yeah, because we peaked out. What if
I remember what about six eighteen or so in our
in our medium price, Right, wasn't that there? And here
we are, you know, five ninety four will round it up?
But were we up around the six eighteen six nineteen
a few months ago on the medium price?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Yeah, so if you look at that long pricing chart,
I know the audience can't see it, but back in
i'd say the summer of twenty two, we hit right
up around six twenty five six point thirty, came down.
We've tried to get through that number. Last month would
have been the fourth time we've tried to break through
that numbering.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
Nobody said it's like a stock chart, trying to break
through the resistance level. Yep, that's right, that's right, exactly
what it is. Okay, medium price down, closed sales down,
medium days of contract up. Let's go to our next one.
Barely budged on this one, Liz, price received ninety eight
point six percent, down one tenth month over month, down
a half a percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah, and again kind of a skewed number because that's
the that is the sales price received at the last
sales price that was off right account all the adjustments.
But still, I mean, look at it, down five tenths
from a year ago, which sounds like an incredibly small number,
but for a long time there if you remember, we
were at one hundred and two hundred and three percent.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
That's right, So now we're going the other way exactly.
All right, Our medians sold amounts or dollar amount per
square foot three hundred and thirty dollars, up two point
two percent month over month, up three point nine percent
year over year. Dwight, Does that concern you at all
from a valuation standpoint, that you know, prices are coming down,
but the price per foot's going up inflation at.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Its finest, John, I still think you have, you know,
some supply. I still think you've got some issues out
there with with product and subs and workers. So it
doesn't surprise me that that square foot price is still elevated.
I think as you start to see maybe you know,
(25:53):
some of this tariff and economic you know, dot start
to settle, you might start to see that settle down.
But we've had we've been I think, if Corey correct
me if I'm wrong, we've been in that three hundred
range for you know, a few years now.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
All that doesn't surprise.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
Yeah, it's a long time.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Yeah, okay, all right, our next report new listings. Oh,
bad number here, Corey. Five hundred and fifteen new listings.
Sounds like a lot, but that is down twelve point
four percent from June, down two point eight percent year
over year.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Yeah. So if you want the prices though this is
my theory, if you want the prices to hold up,
you want the new listings to come down, because what's
been keeping the prices up for the most part has
been lack of inventory. So on the seller side, that's
not the worst thing in the world. That's less competition.
But it also tells me that people may have given
up on this year. I don't want to say given up,
(26:42):
but you're kind of you're past the fourth of July.
You're getting that downtrend and people may be looking at
and say, hey, wait a minute. My neighbor was asking
five hundred and he took four ninety eight. I'm not
selling for that. I'm gonna hold out control until I
get five to fifty. So they choose not to list
yet because they think it'll be better, you know, in
a couple months, which it won't.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Hm right, right, Okay, let's go to active inventory, right,
it's all about supplying demand. What do we have out there?
Are active inventories onty nine units in the month of July,
down three tens a percent month over month, but at
thirty seven point one percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Yeah, so your active inventory did not budge. We sold
four hundred houses, We had twelve percent decrease in new
listings coming on the market, and your active inventory didn't
budge a month over month, which means there's plenty on
the market to kind of cycle through there. So again,
from the seller's perspective, you want that number down because
you don't want the competition. From the buyer's perspective, shoot
(27:39):
it up as high as it can go because they
want choices and that'll force prices to come down more
houses come on the market.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
Okay, de Weight, you want to add anything to the inventory, Dwight,
are you weak? Okay? I guess not.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
I'm sorry, John, that's what.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
He's doing for you. You know that.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
But my hits that mute.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Oh.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
I think the active inventory, the active inventory, I think
it's going to be The proof will be in the
putting in the next couple. But I think you're going
to start to see that that that number rise. I
know it's down slightly, but I think you know, you
look at versus July of a year ago, I mean
up thirty seven. I mean, I think you're going to
start to see that start to go in the favorable
direction of the buyer.
Speaker 1 (28:28):
Okay, Okay, yeah, of the buyer exactly. Glad to do
that in all right, we come back from the final break,
we'll talk about the month supply of inventory, then get
the boys' final opinion on what they see going on
in the field. Wrop it up with Kristen snow right
now Traffic Center. Hello, Kristin, Welcome back to the John
Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty k H.
Mister ed your phone over.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Please bok seven thirty six seven zero zero, mister Millart
two four zero two zero two two.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Thank you. Boys. All right, let's wrap things up on
the report guys, let's go to who are ever so important?
The months of inventory? So Corey, here we are two
point nine months of inventory, still not bad, like you
always say, normal is what four to six months? Right
around there, we're up seven point six percent month over
a month and a forty point two percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
Yeah, that's a big one. I mean that is getting
towards three months of balance. Market's usually six months, but
we're coming off of two weeks, three weeks, four weeks
with inventory, so it's big. The thing that stands out
to me, John, and this whole report is new listings
are down twelve percent, but months supply is still up
seven point six So people aren't putting their houses on.
(29:38):
But what's there isn't selling, which is still causing a
month's supply, and so that's something to really keep an
eye on.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
I think perfect. I want to go to one final
report that that you shared, Corey. That is staggering, and
this is the unsold listings. Go through the numbers with everybody.
This is staggering.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
So I usually don't watch this one super close. But
Dwight sent us both. I don't know if we talke
about anybody's sent us an article a couple of weeks
ago about people taking their houses off the market across
the country, and I've seen snippets of it. So I
pulled this report this morning, and when I saw the graph,
I'm I go, oh boy. So this report is unsold listings,
which means they've been withdrawn, canceled, or expired in the
(30:19):
month of July. So you can get the report for
every month. This is the month of July. This number
in twenty twenty four, July twenty twenty four was thirteen
listings which were retron canceled, or expired that year. Last
month July twenty twenty five, one hundred and six, which
is a seven hundred percent increase. And when you look
at this graph, I know the audience can't see it.
(30:40):
This graph is I don't know how you describe it. John,
You're the stuck. It's just it's just straight up. And
it's the highest it's the highest number, probably double the
highest number in the last ten years I've seen this,
which means, this is my interpretation of people are getting
frustrated they're not getting the price so that they thought
they were going to get, so they're pulling their houses
(31:02):
off of the market and I'm going to hibernate or
the other thing. I see. After doing this for thirty years,
they're gonna pull it off. And they're gonna give it
to Joe Bob because Joe Bob says he can not
only get that price, but he'll get more than that.
They're going to start a new listing agent game until
they realize that their house is not worth what they
think it is.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
Well, let's throw another reason in quiry that they may
be pulling these off, and that is they go out,
they finally do their shopping, right, they go to Dwight,
they get their pre call letter like, oh cool, we
can go out. We'll qualify for this amount of money.
They go go, holy moly, I can't believe the price
of a new home. And then Dwight runs a mortgage
rate and it's like, well wait a minute here, you
know I'm at four percent and now Dwight's quoted me,
you know, low sixers or whatever. I can't afford that, right,
(31:45):
so we have that throw it in there, right right.
I mean that's another factor.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Absolutely. I think that they start to wake up to
what they're getting rid of, going, hey, this isn't so bad.
You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna stay with this, this
is right now.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
I'm gonna go to home DEEPO and spend a few
thousand bucks and you know, freshen up the yard or
get some new patio furniture or something to stay where
I am. I want to go over this number one
more time that Corey just said, folks, because again we've
never covered this from Corey. A great job on this one.
So once again, these are unsold listings that were withdrawn, canceled,
or expired a year ago. In July, there was only
(32:21):
thirteen of them July of twenty twenty five one hundred
and six, an increase of seven hundred and fifteen point
four percent. Okay, boys, weakening numbers, especially if you start
looking at the year over year. Once not in trouble
yet very interesting article, folks, I'd recommend you to take
a look at. Go to Bloomberg dot com take a
look at this big article that came out today. Stagflation
concerns ripple through a Wall Street as tariffs hit. This
(32:45):
is the next leg that we're gonna be talking about.
We've warned you tariffs have yet to catch up into
this economy. For a number of reasons. But the stagflation word,
it's gonna start becoming part of everyone's vocabulary again. That's
where the economy stagnates but inflation goes up. Not a
great combination. We're going to, of course keep you updated
on that one. Great job boys, as always, such a
(33:05):
pleasure to be with you. I wish each and every
one of you a wonderful evening. We'll be act with
you tomorrow on the John Sanchez Show. Godless see you boys. DWAIGHTE.
Millard nmlsid Number two four one two five nine a
license mortgage loan officer with Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited and
Equal Housing Lender nmlsid Number one three four eight seven one.
The information shared on this live broadcast is for general
(33:26):
information purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice.
Listeners should consult directly with a licensed mortgage professional for
guidance tailored to their specific situation. All loans are subject
to credit approval and program guidelines. Not all applicants will qualify.
Loan terms and availability may vary by state and are
subject to change without notice. Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited is
(33:48):
licensed in multiple states for a full list of state
licenses and disclosures, please visit https slash slash www dot
Highlandsmortgage dot com backslash licenses backslash. The use expressed during
this program are their own and do not necessarily reflect
those of Highland's Residential Mortgage Limited
Good Thursday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez
Show on News Talk seven eighty k which it's a
pleasure to be with you and a pleasure to be
with my co host. We have a full house around
the horn. We shall go, mister de White Millard Highland's mortgage.
How are you, my friend?
Speaker 2 (00:18):
I'm doing fantastic, John, How are you very good?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
Thank you, very good? Corey d Jedge Reality, Big c.
What's the good word?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Always good stuff going on? Summer?
Speaker 1 (00:29):
There you go, there you go, all the all the
pardon me, all the the parents that get to stay
at home are like, oh thank god, they're all going
back to school. Now I can get a break and
get back to my normal schedule.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Exactly.
Speaker 1 (00:43):
Just just doesn't say that, does she.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I'll keep that one to my exactly. I don't know
if the kids are super excited. It's so funny because
I'm sure all your kids are the same way, Like,
nobody wants to go to school, and then after the
first day they want to go back. So it's right
right away, a whole just you.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
Know, it's being sixty one years old and many years
since I was in school or much less my kids, well,
I was obviously longer than the kids. I just get
amazed every time, Like hearing Jack's story about you know,
the the traffic finds and things like that, it's like,
and then you're saying it, it's like it seems like
every year they start school earlier and earlier. I mean,
remember Dwight, when when you and I were going to school,
and probably you too, Corey. You know you could count
(01:22):
on like after after Memorial Day, right or Liberty Extra
day after Labor Day. Yeah, that's when you started school.
Now it's like, you know, a month ahead of time.
It just like every It's crazy.
Speaker 3 (01:34):
You guys got the one room schoolhouse, this is.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
True and walked Hey, hey, hey, you know I did
walk through I did walk through three feet of snow
a mile to the school bus when I lived in
washall value as a kid and my kids, you know joke, Yeah, dude,
you had walk I literally did. I literally I can
still see it like it was yesterday.
Speaker 4 (01:55):
And John, they never canceled school back.
Speaker 1 (01:57):
Then, right, oh no, heck no, geez. You guys remember
growing up the amount of snow that we used to
get in northern Nevada, right, you know, in the in
the seventies and stuff like that. Yeah, jeezus, it was
never I didn't know what that was at that point.
It canceled school day, come on now, and and and
(02:17):
and and also you know, let's roll this in. I
don't know about you guys, but I never got taken
to school by my parents, right I. It was it
was the bus or you don't go to school. So
I never had that luxury of sitting in a nice
car and having a mom or dad. Yeah. Well I
was too far for a bike, you know, you know,
until I moved to Reno and you know, middle school.
(02:38):
But uh but yeah, yeah, it's man, memories there, memories there.
So all you kids don't complain that school is starting.
You know you could. You don't have to walk through
snow anymore like we did. Oh goodness, all right, folks,
Well let me tell you what we have lined up
for you. We're gonna recap a bit of a rough
day to day. If you, at least if you had
some investments that were correlated to the Dow or the
S and P. If you got has that investments in there,
(03:01):
now you're doing okay today, but yeah, a little bit
of a sloppy market. Tell you all the reasons behind that,
and then we get to get into one of my
favorite shows we get to do each and every month
the courtesy of mister Edge, and that is, of course,
our local real estate data, the market review for the
month of July. Corey going, I'm gonna talk out of
two sides of my mouth here. The first side is
(03:21):
going to be the right side, and that is kudos
to you. Kudos to you too, Dwight for calling for
the slowdown in the real estate market months ago. The
left side of my mouth, I'm going to talk out
of is man. These numbers don't look good. I'll I'll
just kind of lay it that way. I don't like
the medium price coming down. I don't like how long
it's taken, the number of closed sales coming down. There's
(03:43):
a you know, a number of new listings, there's This
is not a great report, mister Edge, not a great report.
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Now. I mean, obviously we're skewed right because the last
two two and a half years have just been gangbusters
money every single month, but it's always recovered itself and
this one may do the same thing. But this is
the I said multiple times it was a pretty slow spring.
The summer didn't get any better, and now we're going
into what normally will be the slower part of the year.
(04:11):
So well, we'll see. I have some conversations today, and
I'm sure we'll talk about it, Like you know what
that interest rates that say that this and that it
may not be anything. I mean, there's really nothing wrong
with it. It's just a matter of markets. You know,
that's how they work, you know, Corey.
Speaker 1 (04:27):
That was the point that I was going to bring up,
and you beat me right to the punch, and that
is I don't think anymore, guys, that it is one thing.
I think it's a culmination of different items. I think
it's as we discuss all the time. It's the stubborn
high thirty year mortgage rate. It's people, literally, I mean,
I have these conversations. I don't know if you guys do,
especially the younger people, they're fearful if they work in
(04:49):
any type of office setting, they're fearful of losing their
jobs to AI. I mean, this is a real, real
trend that's going on in our country, as I keep
talking about almost every single day. For full of that.
They're just nervous overall, right, the stock market I mean,
you know, you look at it. Here we are, you know,
starting the eighth the month out of the year, and
(05:09):
you know, we're really haven't budgeted that much on a
year to date basis on the market. So they're not
seeing huge gains in their four oh one CA's last month.
Most people probably lost money. And you know, Mark was
pretty sloppy in the month of July, so they're not
feeling that wealth effect from the four oh one K
side of things. So I think, guys, it's a it's
a combination of things. And then of course prices continue
(05:30):
to go up. In their personal life, it's costing them
more to go to the grocery store. God, my wife
told me something the other day because I you know,
I never go to the grocery store, and I was
just like, you gotta be kidding me. Oh, I think yeah.
I think it was a it was a case of water.
I think it was. I'm like, well, yeah, it's like,
what three dollars and fifty cents. She starts to laughing
because I like the sawny water. She's like, no, it's
(05:51):
like twelve dollars. I'm like, where, what in the heck
are you doing? You know, just that that is an example,
and so you know it's costing people more money, and
then of course the ice of homes they continue to
go up. So don't you guys agree that it's really
not one thing anymore? I e. Rates that it's more
of a culmination of things.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Absolutely, and that's why I don't think there's an easy
I don't want to say there's not an easy fix
because I don't know that it's particularly broken, but there's
not one thing someone can do to get you back to,
you know, going up ten percent per year for the
next five years. It's it's just not going to happen.
That's not how the markets work.
Speaker 1 (06:26):
Yeah, yeah, that's exactly right, Dwight.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
Yeah, no, I completely agree with what you guys are saying.
It is just you can't fix You can't find one thing.
It's a combination of a lot of things. And everybody's
got a different story, right, everybody's got a little different
story and not all the same. If it was all
the same, we could fix it, but it's not.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
It's got a little different spin on it.
Speaker 1 (06:46):
Yeah, right, right, exactly. So yeah, so we'll get into
that discussion absolutely as we like I said, reveal the
July real estate data. All right, speaking of revealing, let's
go to the stock market side of things today. Guys.
You know, we had a heck of a pre mark
concession going. We're up a couple hundred points going into
the opening bell at six thirty this morning, and you know,
it looked like overall it had the feeling that this
(07:07):
could be a decent day. We had a obviously a
bit of a of a sloppy day. You know, we
go back and look at yesterday. You know, we had
pretty good gains, but not compared to where we closed yesterday.
We were up eighty one on the doll to fifty
two gain on the Nasdaq, So we had some nice momentum.
But again, after the close yesterday, we had the President
(07:27):
come out and announce, you know, the the new tariff
amounts that became effective for a lot of countries effective today,
effective as of midnight last night. So that went on
the market a little bit. And then you had that
news yesterday afternoon simultaneous when he was shaking hands with
Tim Cook of Apple, where Apple said, yeah, we're going
(07:47):
to invest in another hundred million here in the US
and infrastructure and buildings et cetera, on top of the
five hundred million that we already committed. And then he
came out and said, Okay, basically, you know, any company
that is importing their semiconductor chips here into the US,
you're gonna essentially have a one hundred percent tariff. And
so it was very surprising to me we actually had
the semiconductor stocks actually hold up okay today, which it
(08:11):
really could have gone another way. Now, you know, I'll
give you I'll give you an example. You take a
company like, oh, let's go AMD Advanced micro Devices finish
the day up nine dollars and forty nine cent, six
point one percent gain. You had Navidia up about a
little over two dollars, about two dollars and eight cents.
So it was really, uh, you know, pretty strong showing
there because the thinking on the street was, hey, a
(08:32):
lot of these companies Thaiwan Semiconductor another one right, you think,
wait a minute, it's got the name Taiwan in there.
They import a lot of their chips. No, they have
facilities here. So they surged eleven dollars and sixty three cents.
That was really our only real saving grace today was
the uh, the semiconductors. Again, these companies already are or
as the President said, if you have committed to start
(08:53):
building in the US, you are you know this, This
new hundred percent tariff is not going to affect you.
So again, this could have gone a lot a lot
of different directions. We continue to have great strength and
Apple today up six dollars and seventy eight cents after
a massive run up yesterday. Right now it's trading up
seven dollars and thirty four cents in the after hour session.
So you've got a few names that are holding in
(09:13):
there pretty well. But then you've got others like Eli Lilly,
which just got pounded today down one hundred and five
dollars and seventy six cents, fourteen point one seven percent
loss to six forty sixty one great earning these numbers
that were released this morning. But simultaneously the company said
we're trying a new weight loss drug pill and some
pharmaceutical trials. The trials did not go well, and that's
(09:37):
all the street focused on. So right now we're getting
priced for perfection. You better hit your numbers, You better
give a great guidance as we're in an earning season
or your stocks are going to sell off, so you've
got that going on, so somewhat of a mixed market.
Like I said, we finished down two twenty four on
the Dow today, we actually were down over three hundred
at our worst level, finished up seventy three on the
(09:57):
NASDAK and down just five on the SMP, So a
lot of that pressure was obviously on the Dow side.
Caterpillar was a disaster today, ten dollars and two cent loss,
no real specific news on the company salesforce down eight
dollars and sixty two cents, So those are some big
drags along with Visa that really pressured the Dow side
of things. On the economic front, we had productivity for
(10:20):
the second quarter come in that showed a two point
four percent gained a little bit better than the two
percent estimate. Unit labor costs right, one of the biggest
expenses of any business, the labor side, rising one point
six percent. That was a little bit hotter than the
one and a half percent expectation. The jobs front, which
again is so very critical, up seven thousand filings for
the state unemployment benefit and then the continuing claims rising
(10:43):
thirty eight thousand people to one million, nine hundred and
seventy four thousand. So the other big aspect that happened
today is right before the close, the President announced, if
he had a true social that he selected doctor Stephen
Moran to serve in the former Fed Governor Kugler's just
vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January thirty,
(11:03):
first of the year twenty twenty six. And then he said,
in the meantime, I'm going to be searching for a
permanent replacement. This is a subject we've been talking a
lot about this week. Again, I gave the analogy of
trying to take over a board, right, a company wanted
to take over a board to influence them. That's what
we think the president's trying to do is trying to
get a lot of his own people on the Federal Reserve,
on the FOMC member board that those type of things,
(11:26):
any influence he can to start bringing these rates down.
I think he's trying to do that. So that was
very important today when he made that announcement. And then
Chris Waller, which was the one of two dissenting votes
in the FOMC meeting last week, and regarding interest rates,
looks like he has moved to the top of the
list at least at this point, to replace Chairman Powell
(11:47):
when his term is up in May of next year.
So a lot of action going on as far as
the FED. And like I said, you start talking about
the FED and influences from the President, etc. Mark he
gets a little jittery on that side of it. All right,
we come back. Let's go to the commodities, the interest
rates of the mortgage side, and then get started into our
July real estate data. It's turned over the wonderful kristin
snow right now traffic center.
Speaker 5 (12:06):
Hello, my dear, Yes, yep, oh man.
Speaker 1 (12:19):
Yeah, I know that's the thing. Yeah, I know, yeah, Christa.
I mean you're too young to know this, but you know,
Dwight and now we're the old guys here. You know,
when did you ever buy a bottle of water? You
drink it out of the tap. But you just can't
do that anymore. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show
(12:41):
on New Stock seven to eighty koh with Dwight Mallart
of Highlands Mortgage in Coryage of Edge Reality two twenty
four loss on the doll point five to one percent
and Nazac Cup seventy three, the SMP down five. You know, guys,
I'm getting bashed by my daughter Brooke. During the break,
she sent me a text. You want me to read
it to you about my my walking in the snow.
She said, you did not, in capital letters, ever walked
(13:03):
to school. Stop lying to the public. Doris Sanchez would
never allow that. And I said, I never said I
walked to school. I walked to the bus stop. So
I'm sorry if I didn't clarify that I walked to
the bus stop three feet of snow. Bus stop was
about a half a mile away there in Washall Valley,
I said. Doris never drove me the half a mile
to the bus stop. She made me walk. And there
(13:25):
was also snow drifts. We remember those snow drifts, you guys,
and the in Washall Valley in those days. Yeah, snow
drifts could be five feet tall. Had those to go again?
So man, getting called out by your own kid, getting
called out by your own kid, I tell you what.
Speaker 3 (13:37):
Yeah she was the one that got.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. Yeah, she's the one that you know,
used to get carted by mom to school every single
day and daycare every day. So yeah, live out in
Washall Valley in the seventies brook just do that. Oh goodness,
all right, let's go to the commodity side. Forty nine
cent loss on oil sixty three eighty eight a barrel
up nineteen dollars and ninety cent scold two thousand and
(14:00):
four fifty three seventy ms millard two basis point increase
ten near treasure. We close for twenty four. Talk to
us about mortgage rates, my friend.
Speaker 4 (14:08):
Yes, we got a little relief even from Tuesday. John,
we're at six point five y five on the thirty
year fixed. And I know you like to watch the
fifteen or close right now, so it's it's five point
ninety two, so you know a little bit, you know,
just a tick or to relief from Tuesday. But yeah, yeah,
it's it's it's a it's an interesting, interesting market.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
So I like it.
Speaker 4 (14:32):
I like your I gotta watch it. I gotta watch
it like every hour now, Oh.
Speaker 1 (14:36):
You do you do? Yeah, it's it's ticking like the
stock market is.
Speaker 3 (14:39):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (14:40):
I like I like the chart pattern right now, Dwight,
you're definitely definitely moving down at this point. I want
to talk to you a little bit dwight looking at
other again mortgage products. Okay, so, like you said, the
thirty year at six fifty five, the fifteen at five
ninety two, but I want to talk to about this
seven six so for ARM at six twelve and the
thirty year FHA at six twelve, thirty year VA at
(15:01):
six thirteen, where you've seen the desire or are you
at all on this seven sixth so far ARM, because
I haven't really been hearing much about that, but I
was kind of attracted at that low rate of six
twelve compared to a thirty year, So talk to us
about that real quick. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (15:16):
So it's a product that's pretty limited, John, It's limited
to a lot of just local institutions. That's why you're
not seeing a lot of traction out of it. We
have some local ones in Reno area that use them.
It's an attractive product because you know it's that lower rate,
but it is a fixed product, you know, overseeing the
box is pretty small. But yeah, you're starting to see
(15:38):
a few people take advantage of it. But as these
rates start to drop down, why would you go v.
Speaker 2 (15:43):
To growing point four off?
Speaker 4 (15:44):
You know, right right on a thirty or fix? So
I think as you start to see those rates drop,
I think those arms are going to stay somewhat elevated,
and you might start to see, you know, that product
maybe even starting to go away or you know, base out,
because it just won't be attractive anymore.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
But it does have some value to some people.
Speaker 1 (16:05):
Why in the world are the thirty year VA loans
at six thirteen not any lower? Right? I mean, Lord knows,
these you know, heroes are vets deserve better than kind
of a standard rate. You know, again, thirty year Faha's
at six twelve, thirty year VA at six thirteen? Is
that normal? I just picked up on that. I always
(16:26):
thought the thirty year VA is always going to be
a bit lower, but it's not long.
Speaker 4 (16:29):
I'm going to take you way back, John, back to
the eighties or the nineties. The VA used to dictate
their rate. Remember, they would tell you what the rate is,
and that's all the rate you could give them. And
if you weren't careful, you could get caught either way
on an increase or a decrease, and if you got
a decrease, they had to come with points, if you know.
So it was kind of crazy, but I think it's
(16:49):
you've seen for a very long time the government q
pons that Jenny Mays trading very close. But I would
agree with you. I would think that there would be
some sort of benefit to the veteran out there. You know,
they get that through the maybe an elimination of the
VA funding fee, no mortgage insurance, those types of things,
but you know, why not help them out a little more.
(17:11):
And you know there are.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Some institutions that do that specifically, but really, but they do.
They do trade pretty pretty close. So they have been
trading pretty close for quite some time.
Speaker 4 (17:22):
But you're but what's interesting, John, real quick as you're
seeing the convention now kind of get closer and closer
to the government. So I mean we've been sixty basis
points different, even seventy and now you're only about what
thirty five basis points different?
Speaker 1 (17:36):
Yeah, yeah, forty three? Yeah, yeah, very good. Closing closing
the gap there, That's what I like to see. I
just like that sub seven of Dwight and I love
that sub seven. All right, folks, when we get back,
you want to know how your real estate's doing. Is
it time to buy, is it time to sell? We're
gonna have all those details for you when the boys
go through the market review for the month of July,
and like I said, not the best reports. You want
to listen closely if you're looking to buy, looking to sell,
(18:00):
of all the details for you. But firstlet's turn over
to Jack Saban. Speaking of details, he's gonna give us
news traffic on weather. Hey, Jack, welcome back to the
John Sanchez Show. In his talk seven eighty koh with
Dwight Mallard of Highlands Mortgage and Corey Intividulity once again
to two thirty four decline on the Dow, up seventy
three on the Nasdaq, in a lower by five on
the SMB. All right, folks, let's get into our July
(18:21):
real estate data. Again, not the best report, but we're gonna,
we're gonna, we're gonna dig into it. We're gonna get
the experts here to enlighten us on what's going on. Okay,
mister Edge, as we always do, I will lead the pack.
You will interpret our median home price in the month
of July. I remember this is in for reno and
sparks single family residences, so we're not including condos, townhouses
(18:41):
or anything to single family residences. Medium price dropped two
point six percent from June to July, bringing our medium
price now of five hundred ninety three thousand, nine hundred
and eighty four a decline of two point six percent
year over year. Talk to me, Corey, talk to me.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
I mean, and when you look at just the percentage basis,
it's not the most horrible thing in the world. Remember,
I've been saying this for a while and mostly if
if it stays true this year, but fourth of July
is sipically the top of the market. Things start, they're
slow down right after that, and so this is kind
of what you're seeing. We'll get into the clothes sales
and the rest of the reasons why, but that that's
(19:19):
usually the crescendo and then it's just a slow grind
down into the holidays. So to me, it's not surprising
to see the price come down, and two point six
percent isn't the worst thing in the world, but we
have it. We've had a slow spring in summer, so
it's it's coming down off of what we're already kind
of lower lower numbers.
Speaker 1 (19:38):
To begin with, I did not realize that fourth of
July was the peak of the year. That's interesting I've
never heard of. It's.
Speaker 3 (19:45):
Yeah, it's not always that way. But if you look
at like, for instance, the last three years, right around
and the June fourth of July, that's always been kind
of your highest price point, and then things slow down
from there. So I don't want, you know, don't mark
your calendars, because as soon as I say it will
get a big.
Speaker 1 (19:58):
Bump up, I'll be August next year.
Speaker 3 (20:01):
That's what it's done the last few years of it.
Speaker 1 (20:04):
Okay, very good, Dwight. You're lending across the country, indicative
of what you're seeing elsewhere in the Texas area other
parts of the country with the medium price coming down
a bit.
Speaker 4 (20:15):
Yeah, to Corey's point, I mean, the percentage isn't isn't
that big of a deal, But I mean, if you could,
it'll be interesting to see the next consecutive months if
you continue to accelerate a little bit more or anything
like that. But there's definitely a little softening. I just
had this conversation the other day yesterday, the softening that
just seemed to be occurring around the country, And I mean,
(20:37):
I don't holt anything alarming right now, but it goes
back to all those things we talked about in the beginning, right,
everybody's got a little story going on and lots of
moving parts.
Speaker 1 (20:45):
Yep, exactly. Well, again, kudos to you guys. You guys
have been saying this is happening for months now, and
now it's you were saying it before it showed up
in the data. So once again to you're both true professionalism. Okay, Corey,
let's go to the next one. I don't like the
closed sales. We had four hundred and three closed sales,
down seven point four percent, so you know, again you're
(21:07):
probably talking with twenty five, twenty seven or something like
that as far as actual units. Obviously percentage is much,
but you know we're only talking four hundred or so
closed units. So down seven point four percent on closed
sales from June to July. Your over year down two
point two percent.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
No, it's again it's not a huge number, but it's
still only four hundred sales. You know what, this does
not take into account new home so this is all
just resale MLS data. Some of the new homes are
on there, so it might you know, sneak a few
of them in there, but you're still talking a small
number for this size area to do that. So and
we'll get into more of the details, because I think
(21:45):
I think the tale of why this is happening is
down towards the bottom of this report. But yes, I agree,
things are just kind of grinding and slowing again after
fourth of July. That usually happens. But we've been talking
about it and talking about it and talking about it,
and it's showing up in the dead and I'm still
getting I said this every time, I'm getting emails all
the time for open houses and price what I say
(22:07):
the other day, they don't call them price droughts anymore.
Speaker 1 (22:09):
They call them like price improvement.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
That's the term. Don't you can't price improvements. You still
have all these things going on. And there's another weird
thing that's happening in the market, which we'll get to
later in the report, that's causing some of this. So
just kind of influx, kind of like your world, right,
like when things are about ready to change, everything gets
a little skewed, and that's what's happening. Yep.
Speaker 1 (22:31):
Okay, So our medium price is down, our number of
closed sales are down. Let's go to number three. The
median days to contract thirty one days which still is
not bad, but it's an increase of thirty five point
six percent from June and up sixty point five percent
from a year ago.
Speaker 3 (22:49):
And so median days to contracts, so when you put
your house on this is all NLS datus. When you
put your house alive on the NLS to the time
it goes pending, that is your days to contract. That's
how they get this number. Thirty one days doesn't sound
like a long time, but you remember for a while
there we were at two days, four days.
Speaker 1 (23:06):
That's right.
Speaker 3 (23:08):
So you see where we're kind of trending here, and
that just tells me that the inventory that's on the
markets price to the buyers are rejecting it, and they'll
continue to reject it, because these buyers aren't dumb.
Speaker 1 (23:20):
But I think you guys said about three or four
months ago that that was kind of the turning point
into or from a seller's market to a buyer's market.
In this data substantiates that.
Speaker 3 (23:32):
It's it's trending that direction. I would still say it's
kind of on the seller side because the prices haven't
really dropped super bad yet, but it's certainly trending towards
the buyer's side, because there's a lot more to look at,
and you can go home and think about it, and
you can come back a week later and it's probably
still there, which is not what we're used.
Speaker 1 (23:51):
To, Right, you were trying to see in some of
your other reports, Yeah, because we peaked out. What if
I remember what about six eighteen or so in our
in our medium price, Right, wasn't that there? And here
we are, you know, five ninety four will round it up?
But were we up around the six eighteen six nineteen
a few months ago on the medium price?
Speaker 3 (24:12):
Yeah, so if you look at that long pricing chart,
I know the audience can't see it, but back in
i'd say the summer of twenty two, we hit right
up around six twenty five six point thirty, came down.
We've tried to get through that number. Last month would
have been the fourth time we've tried to break through
that numbering.
Speaker 1 (24:31):
Nobody said it's like a stock chart, trying to break
through the resistance level. Yep, that's right, that's right, exactly
what it is. Okay, medium price down, closed sales down,
medium days of contract up. Let's go to our next one.
Barely budged on this one, Liz, price received ninety eight
point six percent, down one tenth month over month, down
a half a percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (24:50):
Yeah, and again kind of a skewed number because that's
the that is the sales price received at the last
sales price that was off right account all the adjustments.
But still, I mean, look at it, down five tenths
from a year ago, which sounds like an incredibly small number,
but for a long time there if you remember, we
were at one hundred and two hundred and three percent.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
That's right, So now we're going the other way exactly.
All right, Our medians sold amounts or dollar amount per
square foot three hundred and thirty dollars, up two point
two percent month over month, up three point nine percent
year over year. Dwight, Does that concern you at all
from a valuation standpoint, that you know, prices are coming down,
but the price per foot's going up inflation at.
Speaker 4 (25:32):
Its finest, John, I still think you have, you know,
some supply. I still think you've got some issues out
there with with product and subs and workers. So it
doesn't surprise me that that square foot price is still elevated.
I think as you start to see maybe you know,
(25:53):
some of this tariff and economic you know, dot start
to settle, you might start to see that settle down.
But we've had we've been I think, if Corey correct
me if I'm wrong, we've been in that three hundred
range for you know, a few years now.
Speaker 2 (26:06):
All that doesn't surprise.
Speaker 4 (26:07):
Yeah, it's a long time.
Speaker 1 (26:08):
Yeah, okay, all right, our next report new listings. Oh,
bad number here, Corey. Five hundred and fifteen new listings.
Sounds like a lot, but that is down twelve point
four percent from June, down two point eight percent year
over year.
Speaker 3 (26:22):
Yeah. So if you want the prices though this is
my theory, if you want the prices to hold up,
you want the new listings to come down, because what's
been keeping the prices up for the most part has
been lack of inventory. So on the seller side, that's
not the worst thing in the world. That's less competition.
But it also tells me that people may have given
up on this year. I don't want to say given up,
(26:42):
but you're kind of you're past the fourth of July.
You're getting that downtrend and people may be looking at
and say, hey, wait a minute. My neighbor was asking
five hundred and he took four ninety eight. I'm not
selling for that. I'm gonna hold out control until I
get five to fifty. So they choose not to list
yet because they think it'll be better, you know, in
a couple months, which it won't.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
Hm right, right, Okay, let's go to active inventory, right,
it's all about supplying demand. What do we have out there?
Are active inventories onty nine units in the month of July,
down three tens a percent month over month, but at
thirty seven point one percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (27:17):
Yeah, so your active inventory did not budge. We sold
four hundred houses, We had twelve percent decrease in new
listings coming on the market, and your active inventory didn't
budge a month over month, which means there's plenty on
the market to kind of cycle through there. So again,
from the seller's perspective, you want that number down because
you don't want the competition. From the buyer's perspective, shoot
(27:39):
it up as high as it can go because they
want choices and that'll force prices to come down more
houses come on the market.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
Okay, de Weight, you want to add anything to the inventory, Dwight,
are you weak? Okay? I guess not.
Speaker 4 (27:55):
I'm sorry, John, that's what.
Speaker 1 (28:02):
He's doing for you. You know that.
Speaker 4 (28:04):
But my hits that mute.
Speaker 3 (28:07):
Oh.
Speaker 4 (28:07):
I think the active inventory, the active inventory, I think
it's going to be The proof will be in the
putting in the next couple. But I think you're going
to start to see that that that number rise. I
know it's down slightly, but I think you know, you
look at versus July of a year ago, I mean
up thirty seven. I mean, I think you're going to
start to see that start to go in the favorable
direction of the buyer.
Speaker 1 (28:28):
Okay, Okay, yeah, of the buyer exactly. Glad to do
that in all right, we come back from the final break,
we'll talk about the month supply of inventory, then get
the boys' final opinion on what they see going on
in the field. Wrop it up with Kristen snow right
now Traffic Center. Hello, Kristin, Welcome back to the John
Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty k H.
Mister ed your phone over.
Speaker 3 (28:48):
Please bok seven thirty six seven zero zero, mister Millart
two four zero two zero two two.
Speaker 1 (28:55):
Thank you. Boys. All right, let's wrap things up on
the report guys, let's go to who are ever so important?
The months of inventory? So Corey, here we are two
point nine months of inventory, still not bad, like you
always say, normal is what four to six months? Right
around there, we're up seven point six percent month over
a month and a forty point two percent year over year.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
Yeah, that's a big one. I mean that is getting
towards three months of balance. Market's usually six months, but
we're coming off of two weeks, three weeks, four weeks
with inventory, so it's big. The thing that stands out
to me, John, and this whole report is new listings
are down twelve percent, but months supply is still up
seven point six So people aren't putting their houses on.
(29:38):
But what's there isn't selling, which is still causing a
month's supply, and so that's something to really keep an
eye on.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
I think perfect. I want to go to one final
report that that you shared, Corey. That is staggering, and
this is the unsold listings. Go through the numbers with everybody.
This is staggering.
Speaker 3 (29:55):
So I usually don't watch this one super close. But
Dwight sent us both. I don't know if we talke
about anybody's sent us an article a couple of weeks
ago about people taking their houses off the market across
the country, and I've seen snippets of it. So I
pulled this report this morning, and when I saw the graph,
I'm I go, oh boy. So this report is unsold listings,
which means they've been withdrawn, canceled, or expired in the
(30:19):
month of July. So you can get the report for
every month. This is the month of July. This number
in twenty twenty four, July twenty twenty four was thirteen
listings which were retron canceled, or expired that year. Last
month July twenty twenty five, one hundred and six, which
is a seven hundred percent increase. And when you look
at this graph, I know the audience can't see it.
(30:40):
This graph is I don't know how you describe it. John,
You're the stuck. It's just it's just straight up. And
it's the highest it's the highest number, probably double the
highest number in the last ten years I've seen this,
which means, this is my interpretation of people are getting
frustrated they're not getting the price so that they thought
they were going to get, so they're pulling their houses
(31:02):
off of the market and I'm going to hibernate or
the other thing. I see. After doing this for thirty years,
they're gonna pull it off. And they're gonna give it
to Joe Bob because Joe Bob says he can not
only get that price, but he'll get more than that.
They're going to start a new listing agent game until
they realize that their house is not worth what they
think it is.
Speaker 1 (31:22):
Well, let's throw another reason in quiry that they may
be pulling these off, and that is they go out,
they finally do their shopping, right, they go to Dwight,
they get their pre call letter like, oh cool, we
can go out. We'll qualify for this amount of money.
They go go, holy moly, I can't believe the price
of a new home. And then Dwight runs a mortgage
rate and it's like, well wait a minute here, you
know I'm at four percent and now Dwight's quoted me,
you know, low sixers or whatever. I can't afford that, right,
(31:45):
so we have that throw it in there, right right.
I mean that's another factor.
Speaker 4 (31:50):
Absolutely. I think that they start to wake up to
what they're getting rid of, going, hey, this isn't so bad.
You know, I'm gonna I'm gonna stay with this, this
is right now.
Speaker 1 (32:01):
I'm gonna go to home DEEPO and spend a few
thousand bucks and you know, freshen up the yard or
get some new patio furniture or something to stay where
I am. I want to go over this number one
more time that Corey just said, folks, because again we've
never covered this from Corey. A great job on this one.
So once again, these are unsold listings that were withdrawn, canceled,
or expired a year ago. In July, there was only
(32:21):
thirteen of them July of twenty twenty five one hundred
and six, an increase of seven hundred and fifteen point
four percent. Okay, boys, weakening numbers, especially if you start
looking at the year over year. Once not in trouble
yet very interesting article, folks, I'd recommend you to take
a look at. Go to Bloomberg dot com take a
look at this big article that came out today. Stagflation
concerns ripple through a Wall Street as tariffs hit. This
(32:45):
is the next leg that we're gonna be talking about.
We've warned you tariffs have yet to catch up into
this economy. For a number of reasons. But the stagflation word,
it's gonna start becoming part of everyone's vocabulary again. That's
where the economy stagnates but inflation goes up. Not a
great combination. We're going to, of course keep you updated
on that one. Great job boys, as always, such a
(33:05):
pleasure to be with you. I wish each and every
one of you a wonderful evening. We'll be act with
you tomorrow on the John Sanchez Show. Godless see you boys. DWAIGHTE.
Millard nmlsid Number two four one two five nine a
license mortgage loan officer with Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited and
Equal Housing Lender nmlsid Number one three four eight seven one.
The information shared on this live broadcast is for general
(33:26):
information purposes only and does not constitute financial or mortgage advice.
Listeners should consult directly with a licensed mortgage professional for
guidance tailored to their specific situation. All loans are subject
to credit approval and program guidelines. Not all applicants will qualify.
Loan terms and availability may vary by state and are
subject to change without notice. Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited is
(33:48):
licensed in multiple states for a full list of state
licenses and disclosures, please visit https slash slash www dot
Highlandsmortgage dot com backslash licenses backslash. The use expressed during
this program are their own and do not necessarily reflect
those of Highland's Residential Mortgage Limited
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