September 19, 2025 • 35 mins
Wall Street surged to fresh records as a mix of rate cuts, aggressive tech bets, and bullish inflows pushed the markets higher. In this episode of The Jon Sanchez Show, we review what fueled this rally and discuss the potential risks that may be hiding beneath the optimism. Jon and the team outline the impact of recent monetary policy decisions, examine the role of mega-cap tech in driving investor sentiment, and highlight areas of the market that could face pressure if conditions shift. Whether you’re tracking short-term momentum or focused on long-term retirement planning, understanding both the drivers and vulnerabilities of this rally is essential.
👉 Watch this episode on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@thejonsanchezshow
👉 To learn more about retirement planning and wealth management in Reno, visit: sanchezgaunt.com
Compliance Disclosure: This program is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are those of the participants and may not reflect the views of Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional regarding your individual situation before making financial decisions.
👉 Watch this episode on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@thejonsanchezshow
👉 To learn more about retirement planning and wealth management in Reno, visit: sanchezgaunt.com
Compliance Disclosure: This program is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are those of the participants and may not reflect the views of Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional regarding your individual situation before making financial decisions.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Too many good Friday after Nontia, Welcome to the John
Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven to eighty k which it's
a poleasure to be with you and a poleasure to
be with my co host, my partner, mister Jason got
Sanchez got Capital Management.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a pleasure to be Friday, a.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Pleasure to be Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
More than anything, it is a pleasure to be Friday,
that is for sure. Was this as long a week
to you as it was to me? I've been trying
to figure out why before the show, It's like, why
does this feel like it was such an absolutely long week?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think it's been so busy that the weekends aren't
even existing. It's just all sort of together.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
It's all run together.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
It I think as we age, we collaboratively. It becomes
a case. When I was younger, I felt like it
was always Monday. Right right now, I feel like it's
always Friday. Uh, and the weeks just sort of motioned
together where the only reason I know today is what
it is is two ways. One I look at my watch.
(01:03):
The other one is like do I do the show
with John Tech Monday, Wednesday, Tuesday. Other than that, it's just.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
What's what's supposed to be my hen I have to
do the show. You're done, You're.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Done, like, yeah, you have two days, you don't do it.
That's about it.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Really, that's interesting way to look to look at the kilend.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
That's really what it is.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Okay, all right, oh good, I'm glad. I can you know,
sit your course straight?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Jason, thank you.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I could see your first. It's such a unique mind
you have, my friends, such a unique.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Well, Happy Friday, all of you. We welcome you to
the program. Thank you so much for joining us. We
hope you have a great weekend. Speaking of Friday, well,
of course it is Friday. So what are we gonna do.
We're gonna give you the week on Wall Street. You know,
we smashed some records, folks, not just once, but a
multiple of times.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
This week.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Smashed some records on the Doubt, the naw Is that
d S and P and Jason's favorite, the Small Camp Indix,
the Rustling two thousands, the Little Guys.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
We had a tech rally.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
We had, uh, just a lot of bullish money coming
into the market that we're going to share with you.
But beneath that, as we always tell you, there's always
a euphoria. Right, don't get too complacent. There's always some
problems lurking around a corner at our job on this program,
because we do it all day long for our clients.
So look around that corner, kind of peek over around
(02:20):
there and try to find out where those problems are
so we can be a step ahead of the game.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
That is that is the goal of any good money manager.
We want to be a step ahead of the game.
We don't let our emotions control our investment decisions, nor
do we want yours to.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
So we're going to, of.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Course go through all the bright side of this market
this week and again. Record finished today once again except
on the well, let's see this.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
I didn't get chance to say the small caps finished
with the record.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Jason, I don't know that answer. I know, I don't question.
I can look. It won't take me long.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
But yeah, some reason my quote system stops. It never
records where the Russell two thousand finishes. That's why I
always rely upon you.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I'm just looking at my favorite ETF, the Russell two thought,
which I can actually I believe mentioned now, but just
for old times sake, I won't I know small cap
ETF is at all time highs, so yeah, we'll we'll
go with yes, all right, but I mean, you know,
down on the day over over, but yeah, it's right
off of all time highs.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Yeah there, close enough, close enough.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
So anyways, we're gonna go through we kind of highlighted
really seven key takeaways that we saw this week, and
you've heard some of these if you've tuned into the
show every day, which you should. If you didn't, please
pick up our podcast and do not miss one of
our shows. So we're gonna go through seven key takeaways
for you this week of what we saw, and our
seventh bullet point that we're going to discuss really is
(03:40):
what risk are still out there? Right because Jason and
I'll give you a prime example. And I didn't get
a chance. I was I was on a conference call,
so I couldn't read the story. Maybe I'll try to
find it during the break, but I'm gonna kind of
look it up right now. And I about fell out
of my chair when I saw this headline come across,
and yeah, just looking around seeing if.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
I see it.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Anyways, this headline was we're working to deal with the Taliban.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Do you know what, No, awesome are they going to
buy from US to avoid terror? No?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Right, what's going to be there? Tariff?
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Like we're looking the way the headline said, and again
I'll find the exact one we are looking. The Trump
administration is looking to allow them to basically occupy some
real estate at the was the Bagram the big air
force base over there? And I and I read it
three times, I said Taliban deal Bagram Air Force Base?
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Really, So that's about all I know right now.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
But my point is there's some weird things that are
going on out there right there.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
There always is.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
There's so many hidden agendas that the politicians have, and
we again, our job is to try to figure them
out because you know, who'd have ever thought the US
government would own talk? Jason, There's another prime example that
was that was that was another big highlight of this week.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Yeah, that and like why is that a thing?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Like? Why it?
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Again? I know it's data, I know it's big, Like
why why is that? Oh? Trump? And she talked about
TikTok like that's really what that was?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
It talking that need to be solved.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
That that was the big one, right, You like see
these dancers where you know I would like to own it. Yeah,
it's again I'm down playing it a bit, but it
seems like it gets way too much pressed. So yes,
that is a wonderful question as to that. That is
what they're talking about over all the other things that
they could be talking about, right right, So he's like,
(05:42):
how does this censorship thing work over there in China?
I'm interested in that.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Let's okay, I found It's Friday. We can we can
beep up around. I'm sorry to interrupted, but I just
found this on the Wall Street journal site. So let
me let me just share this Taliban deal. So the headline, folks,
is this US is in talks with the Taliban on
returning counter terrorist some forces to the Afghan base. Trump
administration officials are in discussion with the Taliban about re
(06:07):
establishing a small US military presence at Afghan's afghanistans At
Air Force Base as a launch point for counter terrorism operations.
Trump's surprise announcement that he is seeking to reclaim Bagram
Air Force Base I didn't know we lost it first
of all, is a potential component of a broader diplomatic
effort to normalize relations with Taliban. Have we not learned
(06:29):
our lesson about trusting Taliban. Okay, there's the first part.
The talks thatch are led by Special Envoy for Hostage
Response Adam. Boiler includes a potential prisoner exchange, a possible
economic deal, and a security component. According to a US official,
US officials and the Taliban have discussed allowing the US
(06:49):
military to use Bogram as a launch point for counter
terrorism operations.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So am I reading this right that.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
We no longer occupied Bagram Air Force Base and that
it's occupied by.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
But isn't that the one isn't in fact, I'm looking bogm.
This is a Biden you know back in your face.
Isn't Bogram the base that Biden notoriously pulled out of
and then caused all the woe with all the you
know things we left there? Yeah, doesn't that seem like,
again I'm just being a conspiracy theorist here that Bogram
(07:26):
specifically is like we want it back because of you know,
that's sort of from what I recall, that was the
hub that when we pulled out of and left all
these things there, And I can't believe, right, So like
I'm wondering if that has something to do with it,
not to say that we plan to really negotiate with
the Taliban, but it's more of a look, I got
Bogram back, and you know again, I'm just guessing.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
US officials and the Taliban have just have discussed allowing
the US military to use Bogram as a launch point
for cam terrorism operations. The US officials said this could
evolve basing manned military aircraft or drones at the sprawling
installation north of Kabul, which was which was the largest
US base in Afghanistan for the duration of the twenty
year war. Indian and twenty twenty one senior Afghan official
(08:13):
rejected the possibility of a return of US troops to
Afghanistan and social media post, though he left the door
open to other forms of operation. Man, Yeah, I'm sorry
to go off the track, but yeah, yeah, no, it
just it's just there's hidden agendas to so many things
(08:33):
we're trying to get across.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
We can't make sense, you.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Know, in Afghanistan and of itself, like we'll take it is.
The reason that it was occurring is or why we
were there is it is a wonderful area to launch
all those things from.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
That was perfect. That's why we occupied it. It was
it was our stronghold during.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
The war, Like Them or Not? From Friedman From Beiru
to Jerusalem is an incredible book if you ever get
a chance to read it, that really goes into the
backstory of like why are we there? And like what
is the plan? You know, some people like Freedman someone don't.
But it's a good book from an educational standpoint, but
it highlights just the locale of those lands are very
(09:14):
important for us in terms of control. For lack of
a better term of you know, it's quick to hop
or defend from there. So it was a tough thing
to give up in the whole desire of let's just
not be everywhere all the time that Biden was so so.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Here's to your point.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Trump has repeatedly attacked Biden for handing over a Bagram
airfield during the Afghan evacuation, but the agreement that Trump
administration struck with the Taliban in twenty twenty required the
removal of all US forces in Afghanistan and turning over
the keys to the base. Wow, I had no idea.
I reason I sound stupid when I say I had
no idea.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
I watch.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
I can't tell you how many you know, documentaries on
on Bogram.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I mean, it was just such a center hold in
the entire war process.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
And I, like, I said, I until you just said
that's like, yeah, I remember seeing the C one thirty
ones pulling away and remember all the Afghan people running
to jump on it.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Literally is it's going.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Down the runway right and getting up in the landing
gear compartment and so on and so forth. So anyways, yeah,
I started to deviate on that, but yeah, it's it's important,
it is.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
It's just crazy. It's just it's just absolutely crazy.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
So anyways, that's kind of one of the many things
we'll talk about this, right. You know, we had a
fed interest rate decision markets at all time high, the
US government now you know, owning ten percent of Intel.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Did you see that stat yesterday? I covered it with
the boys yesterday.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
So our our our nine point nine percent stake that
we took an Intel, you know for quote the chips
money that it equated to about roughly five billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, in the stock how much?
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And it's now worth almost ten billion dollars the US
government and has already made four billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Do we sell it to in video? Who took a stake.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
That's what I wondered, because, yeah, the video's five billion
dollar investment yesterday propelled us to make almost five billion
dollars profit on that one. You think that do you
really think that one wasn't Now we're going to go
down to deep part here. Do you not think that
that was an orchestrated deal with with Sure, Yeah, Jensen
wong to say, hey, you want some special treatment getting
(11:26):
your chips into China and a few other things that
you're trying to do that you can't do with that
to help them our foundry, Yeah, yeah, why don't you
take a little bit of money out of out of
the bank account and mister wan and invested in this
little company called Intel, And then all of a sudden
they do that and now they're co partners in a
uh and and some new server you know, locations and
(11:47):
partners in this and partners in that City Group had
the guts to day to come out and go, this
isn't the deal everybody thinks they did, and they downgraded
Intel on.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
It, and and the fabulous approach is what got us
into trouble too, with like offloading every everything to TSM,
et cetera. Just because it was cheaper, you know, so
on and so forth. But again, cheaper now doesn't necessarily
mean cheaper later. Yeah, and that's the problem we've gotten
into with offloading all of our labor and offloading all
of our sort of you know, businesses to other places
(12:15):
for better earnings. Now you're in a pretty tough spot.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Yep. Absolutely all right.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
We had a lot of things to talk about on
this Friday afternoon. Let's first turn it over to the
wonderful Kristin Snow right now traffic center, Happy Friday, Kristin,
how are you? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show
on News Talk seven eighty k o H with Jason gandal.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Right.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Here's how we finished in this record setting day, a
one seventy three game on the dial, point three seven
percent to a close of forty six thousand, three hundred
and fifteen. As that grows one hundred and sixty one
point seventy two percent, closing at twenty two thousand and
six thirty one s andp up thirty two or point
four nine percent to a close there of six thousand,
six hundred and sixty four. So Jason and I were
(12:58):
kind of talking about our portfolio performance numbers et cetera.
During the break, and we're talking about year to date
numbers and Jason, let's kind of move over to this
and then we'll turn it over to you to have
the market recap for the day.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
But you know, it's these record setting days.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
Like I said, I think what we have three of
them this week if I remember correctly, we're sending some
pretty positive numbers. I mean, ZEK for year to dates
now up seventeen point two percent. S and P's up
thirteen point three, Down's up eight point nine lagging a
bit there, and the Rustle two thousand now hire by nine.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Point eight percent on a year to day basis.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
So again, you know here we are a little over
halfway through the year and it's moving nicely and the
interest raight cut cycles only begun.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Yeah, and we talked too, you know IFA, which is Europe,
Asia Far East up twenty four percent this year, Emerging
markets right all the China hatred et cetera, EM up
twenty seven percent this year. Right, So those are you know,
if you're asking where do I go when the dollars
week overseas? Right, That's why these markets tend to do
(14:01):
well when you get a weeker dollar is that simple
math we've talked about. If I'm going to go buy
a European company, I'm selling dollars, buying euro, and then
buying that company. So if the dollar weekends and my
home currency is dollars and I own euro, and euro's appreciating,
and even if the stock is trading in line with
the S and P five hundred, eventually I sell that stock,
(14:24):
sell euro by dollars, and I outperform because the currency effects.
So that's a place to move too. If you're ever
worried about a dollar depreciating of some kind, owning non
dollar assets is a way to hedge some of your
dollar exposure. So just something to think about with having
a diversified.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And that's and that's a great reminder.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
And if this situation holds with the dollar, euro, et cetera,
when earning season comes out, you know, here we are
mid little after mid point of September, obviously we had
quarterly earnings coming out second week or so of October,
you could start seeing some currency valuation issues apples.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, exactly. They take it in a lot of euro,
they take it in a lot of year, and they
taken a lot of other currencies that very much to
your point, can some some closet beats because of a
currency trans translation that had been a headwind for the
last couple of years because the dollar has been so strong,
So you can see a bit of a reversal for sure.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Another bizarre thing that just occurred to me this week
as you were talking about euro Trump's recommendation to the
SEC to do away with quarterly reportings and go to
semi annual.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Uh, yeah, I can see it, right, I mean maybe
I don't know. If you're looking from a company standpoint,
it makes sense, right, they don't have to spend so
much time on court. I mean think of how much
changes quarter to quarter, but more so how much you know,
time spent on reporting and earnings and this, Like you
(15:57):
could probably have more of a long term view with
your report and you've got a lot more of the color. Yeah,
the flip side being the stock market right has less
color and making its decisions. I mean you mentioned this,
I don't know a couple of weeks ago, is like,
how do companies go out and beat by a bazillion percent?
(16:18):
Like they don't pre announce anymore, Like when's the last
time that you remember a company pre announcing a quarter
like they don't do it anymore? Where's that right? Like
that transparency seems to have gone away as well, So yeah,
it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
Well, let's go back into the record book a little bit.
For those of you that don't know market history. In
nineteen seventy is when the quarterly reporting started by the SEC.
Required by the SEC. Prior to that, I don't even
know what it was if I don't remember, if it
was six months or a year, who know, I don't know,
But nineteen seventy is when it started. Now, to your point,
there's two arguments. I guess I did not know this
(16:55):
until I looked this up. But your European countries because
they're under different accountingsystem, they're not under fasby like we
are here. In many cases, they actually report on a
semi annual basis, and supposedly those companies, to your point,
love it right. It's less compliance work. Bottom line, it's
less work for them. But many are criticizing the President
for even bringing this up to the SEC. And if
(17:17):
you want to see something interesting, folks go to CNBC
dot com bring up their videos of an interview this
morning with our new SEC chairman. And if I was
a betting man, I'd say this is going to happen.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
He seemed.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
I'd say optimistic, And again I don't have any timeframe,
but it was just my opinion kind of reading his
body language that this is something they are the SEC
is seriously considering. But anyways, some are criticizing the President
saying this is a way for companies to cover things up,
and Trump's like, no, wait a minute, we need to
get away from companies management being able to having to
focus I should say, having to focus on performance every
(17:54):
ninety days and instead yeah, going out to one hundred
and eighty days, or if you look at you know,
Japanese companies, they manage for fifty one hundred years out right.
And so that's the reason the President is recommending this
to the SEC. But there's a part of me also
that says, and this is why the President's getting criticized
on this, that you get a lot of time. One
hundred and eighty days is a lot of time to
(18:15):
cover up problems, right, Remember, folks, when a company has
anything of material importance I mean, and that's a vague,
vague term, they have to report it. On their you know,
on their on their ten Q which is the quarterly
filings or any other filing. There's all kinds of different
read Yeah, reg FD, they have to let it the
world know essentially, So some are saying, well, wait a
(18:36):
minute here, if we have to wait one hundred and eighty,
well there'd be more than that, right In other words,
you know, semi annual reporting, that's a lot of time
that companies can really kind of push things under the
under the carpet, and the investment public isn't going to
know where quarterly, it's pretty easy to you know, start
to spot some problems. So I personally think, like I said,
(18:57):
after hearing that interview and watching that interview with the
the SEC chairman, Jay, I think it's I think it's
gonna happen. I don't know when, but yeah, I think
it's got a pretty good, pretty good amount of traction
so far, you know.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And I'd be comfortable with that. I'd be comfortable with
that if the choice was to then pre announce if
earnings are going to be materially different than what you reported,
and we'll call it. I'll just make up at number
twenty five percent better or worse. Something versus you know,
creating a bunch of shock and awe in between. You
know me, I'd love to have less earning season, it.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Thinks, Yeah, well it makes it, it does. It does
make it tough for everybody.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
But yeah, I was just thinking that's usually a lot
of our radio show the first first month after quarterly
and is like, well, we're gonna have to you know,
really have to find a lot of things to talk
about during that time period of collly did every since.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
But totally I think we can do it.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
We got we get it, that's for sure. All Right.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
We always put together seven key takeaways of this week,
and we're going to come back and cover those with you.
But first let's turned over to Jack Saban. He's got
news traffic and whether. Hey Jack, Yeah, welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on News Talk seven eighty K.
It's what Jason gott We finished up one seventy three
on the Dow to a close record close a forty
six three fifteen point three seven percent rise s and
(20:07):
p up thirty two points point four nine percent. And
as that gained one's sixty seven two percent. All right,
it's now time for us to get down to the
heart of the today's show, the takeaways of the week
on Wall Street. So we of course have to talk
about the biggest thing of the entire week, Jason, that
was the FED interest straight cut by a quarter percent.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
What does this mean? How is the market reaction? Take
it away on this point.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah. I think the interesting thing that you guys have
touched on with us as well as with Corey and
Dwight is day cut rates rates go up, right, and
I think the market taking in more and more data
over time will help dictate which direction rates ultimately do
move on the longer end. Clearly, the Fed controls the
shorter end, but they don't control the five year, the
(20:50):
ten year, the twenty, et cetera. And if data keeps
coming in good right, as in remember the jobless claim
number this week was better than last weeks was. I
guess there was a Texas effect? You know, the rates
went up because the market's like, oh, I thought we
were going to get four cuts in the next six months.
Now it's two and a half, and so, you know,
(21:11):
but we got what we expected. FED has cut rates
one of the time when they're a ninety percent or
more probability of them doing so, and I expect they cut,
you know, at least October or December, most likely both,
but at least near term. We got the Fed rate
cut and hopefully the market doesn't freak out or the
economy doesn't slow too too much.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Let's bring our producer on Bailey Bailey, jump on real quick.
I got a question where we're speaking of the the
Fed interest straight cut again. Quarter percent we got, but
some wanted more. We're glad we didn't, Billy you. You're
just informed this morning that you want Jason and I
to we're going to do a quick recording to send
out to everybody, video recording explaining why these mortgage rates
(21:56):
are up. I'm going to round it roughly a quarter
percent in the last three days since this Fed interest
straight cut.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Where where you going to be.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Posting that at That'll be posted on all of our
social media and YouTube as well. Head to the YouTube
that's our main hub for all of our videos, radio recordings,
et cetera. So the John Sanchez Show on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Okay, Yeah, I just wanted to inform you that Jay,
we got to do that recording. Are getting a lot
of questions on that. Yeah, poor to whight he's the
one really.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Getting a lot of questions, and he was saying yesterday,
he's like, people are pissed. They're like, what do you mean.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
You know, the rapes last week were you know, this
level another way up this level, and how did that happen?
Speaker 3 (22:34):
The FED cut rates?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
You know, And again, no matter what, no matter what,
we listen to the show, We've been talking about it.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
Show, been talking about it for months, and that was
one of the risks.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
So and again folks were still north of you know,
eighty percent probability as of this was yesterday and a
chance to see the numbers today, but north of eighty
percent probability of an October rate cut, of a quarter percent,
north of seventy percent probability of a December rate cut.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
So this is what we're saying. This is what we
got to be paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
This is why it's important that you know, meet with
us or another advisor, or take a look yourself if
you're self managing at your allocation. This is really almost
kind of a new world when it comes to asset allocation. Jayson,
want to go back to your point you said at
the beginning of the show. For those that just may join.
One area that just stands out that if you're lacking
exposure or a decent allocation, you need to take a
(23:19):
look at it.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
That's the small caps. That is one area. It's like
a given that you move into when rates start cutting down.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Coming to yeah, I mean, it's certainly an area you
want to be picking at. Right. Why because they tend
to have floating rate debt exposure. Right. They borrow to
fund their business. Right, A smaller company isn't Google. They're
not sitting there swimming in cash. They're financing their business.
Another area biotech, Right, they're very cash sensitive. They don't
(23:44):
make any money. Right, They borrow money and or have
investors that borrow money, and so as rates go down,
the cost to fund their business changes, and they tend
to act well. Banks. Right, these small cap banks, you've
got to upward sloping or more upward sloping yield curve.
What do they do? They borrow short and they lend long.
(24:05):
So as rates are coming down they're benefiting from It
costs them less money to give you interest in your
savings account for them to go lend to finance. Those
companies that need to borrow at five percent, they borrow
from you at three Guess what that's called that interest margin,
So banks win to that. So just looking around for
areas that tend to benefit from a lower rate environment.
(24:28):
Who borrows? Okay, well let's start sniffing around there. Small
caps as of place, so you certainly should be looking at.
Nothing's guaranteed, but they have certainly been showing to be
working recently.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Also one thing to keep in mind, we're talking earlier
about earning season. Keep in mind, folks, probably too soon
when the third quarter earnings numbers come out due to
this rate kit. But also keep in mind, in a
lower interest rate environment, what typically you're going to see
is banks going out, or excuse me, firms, companies of
all sizes and industries going out. They borrow cheap, and
then they do stock buybacks.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
Right.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
They love doing stock buybacks when interest rates are coming down.
Why because remember the fewer number of shares that are
on the float, meaning that are out there being publicly traded. Uh,
they can start buying those back. That has basically an
immediate almost an immediate impact to the earnings per shared numbers. So,
in other words, you spend a little bit of money,
you borrow at whatever three four percent, you go out,
you buy your stock back. Usually you're going to get
(25:22):
a boost in many cases to your stock appreciation because
Wallstree gets really excited.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
About it, and it's a kind of a win win.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
I mean, we saw that with Apple Jay remember that
in the last interest right cut Apple which historically has
not been a big borrower. Remember they went out, they
issued a bunch of debt in a bunch of lawns
and things like that, and they did it. You know, again,
that's another thing that the debt issuance, meaning the bonds.
You're gonna see companies doing a lot of that in
this low low environment if it continues.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Absolutely absolutely, And.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Those earnings for share, by the way, folks, if you want,
you know, you want to hear about a company, if
you're invest in a stock, you want to hear about
those companies announcing stock buybacks because again that if done
correctly and all things being equal, that should equate to
good earnings per share number And we know the number
one driver to his stock performance is earnings. So you
see how the stock market tends to historically rise in
a low interest rate environment. All right, now, speaking of rising, boy,
(26:10):
we rose this week, Jason, we had records. Like I said,
I think three days this week, the Now, the Nazak,
the SMP in the Russell two thousand.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
But why yeah, I think there's a big beta chase
going on too. Right, there's been a lot of investors, advisors,
et cetera that we're concerned about tariffs, They were concerned
about an economy slowing down. They were concerned about seeing
the jobs numbers doing what they are. You know, fedbe
damned and you're you know you're underperforming. Right, if we
(26:39):
were talking earlier, the move from April till now is
twenty plus percent right, and people got caught wrong way
and they're forced to chase now. And remember we even
talked about it on the show. You know, August September
tend to be a bad time of the year. Guess
what it hasn't been. So if you've been sitting there defensive,
waiting for the big pullback, thinking you're going to be
(27:01):
a market timer, guess what you got run over and so.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
And that's a good sign. Don't beat yourself up. If
you missed it to those historical points, that's a good
sign for the rest of the year. Right, we don't
historically sell off in the August September time period that
tends to be good showing for the rest of the year.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
I'm feeling, my spider sense is feeling a twenty twenty
one reducs where the market really got frothy into November.
So that's where my mind's at right now, thinking, you know,
we've got an amazing returns so far this year, you
got all these positive catalysts. Does the market get ahead
(27:40):
of itself sort of around that November timeframe?
Speaker 3 (27:44):
So, but that's what we November.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
I just you know, year ends, right, people start to
window dress like they say, okay, I've had for the
others who have been invested, start to cut exposure into
year end, just thinking, hey, we've done really well. I'm
going to take the other Yeah, respect yours that you
want to talk about it?
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Yeah, yeah, but real quickly before we go to break,
let's take the other side of it. Back to what
you just said, which is the catchup. Depending on whose
daddy you look, you look at, and there's a wide range,
but there's somewhere between four. I even't heard as high
as seven trillion dollars this morning. Seven trillion dollars in
cash slash money market type of instruments. And to your
point that money this money manager is watching the interview
(28:23):
on he's like, same thing as what you just said.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
They're gonna chase.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
They have to chase, and meaning they got to get
some of that money out, not all of it, of course,
they gotta get some of that money out and and
get into the market. So that could be kind of
that that final oomph back to that you know, last
two or three months of the year to make these
numbers go high. So yeah, anything can happen, but I'm
gonna I'm gonna bet on the optimistic.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
Side and that and again I still think we're higher
at the you know, at the end of the year
than we are now. Oh sure, it's just more of
you know, sort of thinking back to like twenty twenty
right where I guess people puked everything and then just
sort of slowly rolled back in and then buy the
fall of twenty one, everything was amazing. Nothing could ever
go down again, and that's why. And then rolls around
(29:06):
and right, and then you know you step on that
front door and get hit by a semi right. So
that's that's at least part of where yeah, you know,
sort of thinking, you know, I really get worried twenty
six twenty seven because of all the debt refinance and
again another show, but near term, that's what's fair.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Sorry, you're worried about twenty twenty seven? All right, let
me shut you up. There you gonna go before he come,
you know, thanks you puts a cup of coffee to
his head or something was wrap up a Christmas noll
right now trafficca Hello Christin, Welcome back to the John
Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty k, which
with Jason Gott. Once again, we had record setting days today.
(29:44):
We're trying to explain, well, we're some of the big
highlights of this weekend so far. Again we talked about
the Fed interest straight kind of a quarter percent to
take away from the street and you know from mister
Powell and a roundabout way that Hey, you know, once
again this is kind of look that dot plot. This
is something else we didn't get chance to really go
into great detail about.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
Jason.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
You know, you had had a good majority of the
of the members. It was almost split. How many you want,
you know, a couple more cuts this year and how
many don't so futures a little cloudy there, but hey,
you know what it is, what it is, and we
don't have to talk about the fit again from that
standpoint until October. Again, markets heading all the time high.
As we said we talked earlier. The other big highlight
of this week of Intel once again, stock storring about
(30:20):
twenty three percent for the week. It was a really
strong week again with the five billion dollar investment announced
by Navidio yesterday. Let's stuck some inflows, right, One thing, folks.
One of the indicators that we look at, of course,
deciding where we want to be with our clients in
our portfolios, we watch money flows. It's called fifty seven
billion dollars a fresh money float into US stocks this week.
(30:43):
But we can take the other side of the argument
and say, yeah, you know what, when investor confidence, especially
retail investor confidence.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Says hi, that's when the markets can get a little overheated.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, I mean, you know, looking at the charts, yes,
we're not overbought yet, so that's at least a positive
thing sort of momentum. We're on the upper end of bought,
but we're not overheated.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Right.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
That's where I start to get worried, and then I
really start to get worried when you start to see
sort of the technicals show you that even though the
markets are making highs, the momentum indicators are starting to weaken.
That's called divergence, and we're not really seeing a lot
of that yet. So I still think that things look
good overall, and there's a lot of support levels under
(31:27):
this market. So if we get a pullback, there's multiple
moving averages below here that provide for some ballast. And
that's why I think that people are cautiously optimistic in
your risk unless there's some unknown seems still pretty well
balanced as far as it seems like.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
Every time we get a little bit of a dip
in the market, whether it's inter day or for the day,
which we haven't had much of that knock on wood
for a while, everyone comes back and goes, wait a minute,
there's a lot of cash sitting in the money market
accounts and this great thing called AI that's just beginning,
So that seems to be the you know, the golden
carrot that's hanging out there from users to hold on.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
So that's pretty good stuff there.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Let's see we touched about tech bond yields again coming
down a little bit today five basis pointing excuse me, eight, Yeah,
I can't read my numbers.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Four basis point increase for the day four fourteen, but
for the week up eight basis points on that ten
year treasure yield. And then let's wrap things up, Jason
with a couple min it's remaining the big risk our
point number seven. As you mentioned high valuations, we've got
energy costs, we've got global tensions. All this of course,
could you know, it's like when we're kids and we
put our foot out to trip our friends. Those type
of things can happen. So, you know, I guess the
(32:33):
best way I'm gonna go back to my surfing analogy,
because it's the weekend. I'm thinking of the ocean, that is,
ride the wave as long as we can, but don't
hesitate to get off and swim to sure if they
start to get a little bit troubled waters.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
I agree. Yeah, it was all at the top of mine.
That was good. That was really good. Yeah, it's like
a bridge over troubled waters.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yeah. I started to find myself using that tone.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Yeah, Yeah, there are risks, I would argue the risks
are more the unknown risks rights. I will do my
best to stay away from political but you know, the
concerns around what people are saying and all of that, right,
that can cause a bit of angst. I'm hearing it
from clients who we are typically fairly conservative. We're like,
(33:15):
what the heck's going on here? Those things can create
some tensions. And then the global part two, right, you know,
with Afghanistan, as you mentioned, you know clearly Russia is
not in the rear view, Ukraine is not in the
rear view. Any of those things that could cause shocks
of some kind, be it geopolitical or even oil or
(33:35):
those could trip things up. But you know we don't
have those today.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
So yeah, exactly, nothing too crazy on the calendar for
next week. Knows.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
We didn't really spend much time on it, but we
got some PC data on Friday, personal income obviously that
same day, but and then the third estimate on GDP,
so there's gonna be our big ones coming our ways.
Other than that, enjoy the week, and my friend, enjoy
the week, and everybody, hey, thanks for let us be
a part of your life. God bless We will see
you all on Monday on The John Sanchez Show see
Jay John Sanchez is a registered investment advisor, and the
(34:09):
opinions expressed by Sanchez Gone Capital Management LLC on this
show or their own and do not reflect the opinions
of News Talks seven eighty or its pairing company, Cumulus Media.
All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable,
although it should not be relied upon. As such, Any
statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information
(34:30):
presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend
to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or
purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies.
Speaker 3 (34:41):
Investments involve risk, and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation
or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for
any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a
qualified tax, legal, or investment advisor to determine whether any
information I presented may be suitable for their specific situation.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Too many good Friday after Nontia, Welcome to the John
Sanchez Show on Newstalk seven to eighty k which it's
a poleasure to be with you and a poleasure to
be with my co host, my partner, mister Jason got
Sanchez got Capital Management.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
It's a pleasure to be Friday, a.
Speaker 3 (00:19):
Pleasure to be Friday.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
More than anything, it is a pleasure to be Friday,
that is for sure. Was this as long a week
to you as it was to me? I've been trying
to figure out why before the show, It's like, why
does this feel like it was such an absolutely long week?
Speaker 2 (00:32):
I think it's been so busy that the weekends aren't
even existing. It's just all sort of together.
Speaker 3 (00:39):
It's all run together.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
It I think as we age, we collaboratively. It becomes
a case. When I was younger, I felt like it
was always Monday. Right right now, I feel like it's
always Friday. Uh, and the weeks just sort of motioned
together where the only reason I know today is what
it is is two ways. One I look at my watch.
(01:03):
The other one is like do I do the show
with John Tech Monday, Wednesday, Tuesday. Other than that, it's just.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
What's what's supposed to be my hen I have to
do the show. You're done, You're.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Done, like, yeah, you have two days, you don't do it.
That's about it.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
Really, that's interesting way to look to look at the kilend.
Speaker 2 (01:24):
That's really what it is.
Speaker 1 (01:26):
Okay, all right, oh good, I'm glad. I can you know,
sit your course straight?
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Jason, thank you.
Speaker 3 (01:30):
I could see your first. It's such a unique mind
you have, my friends, such a unique.
Speaker 1 (01:37):
Well, Happy Friday, all of you. We welcome you to
the program. Thank you so much for joining us. We
hope you have a great weekend. Speaking of Friday, well,
of course it is Friday. So what are we gonna do.
We're gonna give you the week on Wall Street. You know,
we smashed some records, folks, not just once, but a
multiple of times.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
This week.
Speaker 1 (01:51):
Smashed some records on the Doubt, the naw Is that
d S and P and Jason's favorite, the Small Camp Indix,
the Rustling two thousands, the Little Guys.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
We had a tech rally.
Speaker 1 (01:59):
We had, uh, just a lot of bullish money coming
into the market that we're going to share with you.
But beneath that, as we always tell you, there's always
a euphoria. Right, don't get too complacent. There's always some
problems lurking around a corner at our job on this program,
because we do it all day long for our clients.
So look around that corner, kind of peek over around
(02:20):
there and try to find out where those problems are
so we can be a step ahead of the game.
Speaker 3 (02:24):
Right.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
That is that is the goal of any good money manager.
We want to be a step ahead of the game.
We don't let our emotions control our investment decisions, nor
do we want yours to.
Speaker 3 (02:33):
So we're going to, of.
Speaker 1 (02:34):
Course go through all the bright side of this market
this week and again. Record finished today once again except
on the well, let's see this.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
I don't know.
Speaker 3 (02:41):
I didn't get chance to say the small caps finished
with the record.
Speaker 2 (02:43):
Jason, I don't know that answer. I know, I don't question.
I can look. It won't take me long.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
But yeah, some reason my quote system stops. It never
records where the Russell two thousand finishes. That's why I
always rely upon you.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I'm just looking at my favorite ETF, the Russell two thought,
which I can actually I believe mentioned now, but just
for old times sake, I won't I know small cap
ETF is at all time highs, so yeah, we'll we'll
go with yes, all right, but I mean, you know,
down on the day over over, but yeah, it's right
off of all time highs.
Speaker 3 (03:17):
Yeah there, close enough, close enough.
Speaker 1 (03:19):
So anyways, we're gonna go through we kind of highlighted
really seven key takeaways that we saw this week, and
you've heard some of these if you've tuned into the
show every day, which you should. If you didn't, please
pick up our podcast and do not miss one of
our shows. So we're gonna go through seven key takeaways
for you this week of what we saw, and our
seventh bullet point that we're going to discuss really is
(03:40):
what risk are still out there? Right because Jason and
I'll give you a prime example. And I didn't get
a chance. I was I was on a conference call,
so I couldn't read the story. Maybe I'll try to
find it during the break, but I'm gonna kind of
look it up right now. And I about fell out
of my chair when I saw this headline come across,
and yeah, just looking around seeing if.
Speaker 3 (04:00):
I see it.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
Anyways, this headline was we're working to deal with the Taliban.
Speaker 2 (04:06):
Do you know what, No, awesome are they going to
buy from US to avoid terror? No?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Right, what's going to be there? Tariff?
Speaker 1 (04:17):
Like we're looking the way the headline said, and again
I'll find the exact one we are looking. The Trump
administration is looking to allow them to basically occupy some
real estate at the was the Bagram the big air
force base over there? And I and I read it
three times, I said Taliban deal Bagram Air Force Base?
Speaker 3 (04:42):
Really, So that's about all I know right now.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
But my point is there's some weird things that are
going on out there right there.
Speaker 3 (04:50):
There always is.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
There's so many hidden agendas that the politicians have, and
we again, our job is to try to figure them
out because you know, who'd have ever thought the US
government would own talk? Jason, There's another prime example that
was that was that was another big highlight of this week.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Yeah, that and like why is that a thing?
Speaker 3 (05:07):
Like? Why it?
Speaker 2 (05:08):
Again? I know it's data, I know it's big, Like
why why is that? Oh? Trump? And she talked about
TikTok like that's really what that was?
Speaker 3 (05:19):
It talking that need to be solved.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
That that was the big one, right, You like see
these dancers where you know I would like to own it. Yeah,
it's again I'm down playing it a bit, but it
seems like it gets way too much pressed. So yes,
that is a wonderful question as to that. That is
what they're talking about over all the other things that
they could be talking about, right right, So he's like,
(05:42):
how does this censorship thing work over there in China?
I'm interested in that.
Speaker 1 (05:46):
Let's okay, I found It's Friday. We can we can
beep up around. I'm sorry to interrupted, but I just
found this on the Wall Street journal site. So let
me let me just share this Taliban deal. So the headline, folks,
is this US is in talks with the Taliban on
returning counter terrorist some forces to the Afghan base. Trump
administration officials are in discussion with the Taliban about re
(06:07):
establishing a small US military presence at Afghan's afghanistans At
Air Force Base as a launch point for counter terrorism operations.
Trump's surprise announcement that he is seeking to reclaim Bagram
Air Force Base I didn't know we lost it first
of all, is a potential component of a broader diplomatic
effort to normalize relations with Taliban. Have we not learned
(06:29):
our lesson about trusting Taliban. Okay, there's the first part.
The talks thatch are led by Special Envoy for Hostage
Response Adam. Boiler includes a potential prisoner exchange, a possible
economic deal, and a security component. According to a US official,
US officials and the Taliban have discussed allowing the US
(06:49):
military to use Bogram as a launch point for counter
terrorism operations.
Speaker 3 (06:54):
So am I reading this right that.
Speaker 1 (06:59):
We no longer occupied Bagram Air Force Base and that
it's occupied by.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
But isn't that the one isn't in fact, I'm looking bogm.
This is a Biden you know back in your face.
Isn't Bogram the base that Biden notoriously pulled out of
and then caused all the woe with all the you
know things we left there? Yeah, doesn't that seem like,
again I'm just being a conspiracy theorist here that Bogram
(07:26):
specifically is like we want it back because of you know,
that's sort of from what I recall, that was the
hub that when we pulled out of and left all
these things there, And I can't believe, right, So like
I'm wondering if that has something to do with it,
not to say that we plan to really negotiate with
the Taliban, but it's more of a look, I got
Bogram back, and you know again, I'm just guessing.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
US officials and the Taliban have just have discussed allowing
the US military to use Bogram as a launch point
for cam terrorism operations. The US officials said this could
evolve basing manned military aircraft or drones at the sprawling
installation north of Kabul, which was which was the largest
US base in Afghanistan for the duration of the twenty
year war. Indian and twenty twenty one senior Afghan official
(08:13):
rejected the possibility of a return of US troops to
Afghanistan and social media post, though he left the door
open to other forms of operation. Man, Yeah, I'm sorry
to go off the track, but yeah, yeah, no, it
just it's just there's hidden agendas to so many things
(08:33):
we're trying to get across.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
We can't make sense, you.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Know, in Afghanistan and of itself, like we'll take it is.
The reason that it was occurring is or why we
were there is it is a wonderful area to launch
all those things from.
Speaker 1 (08:47):
That was perfect. That's why we occupied it. It was
it was our stronghold during.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
The war, Like Them or Not? From Friedman From Beiru
to Jerusalem is an incredible book if you ever get
a chance to read it, that really goes into the
backstory of like why are we there? And like what
is the plan? You know, some people like Freedman someone don't.
But it's a good book from an educational standpoint, but
it highlights just the locale of those lands are very
(09:14):
important for us in terms of control. For lack of
a better term of you know, it's quick to hop
or defend from there. So it was a tough thing
to give up in the whole desire of let's just
not be everywhere all the time that Biden was so so.
Speaker 3 (09:31):
Here's to your point.
Speaker 1 (09:32):
Trump has repeatedly attacked Biden for handing over a Bagram
airfield during the Afghan evacuation, but the agreement that Trump
administration struck with the Taliban in twenty twenty required the
removal of all US forces in Afghanistan and turning over
the keys to the base. Wow, I had no idea.
I reason I sound stupid when I say I had
no idea.
Speaker 3 (09:52):
I watch.
Speaker 1 (09:53):
I can't tell you how many you know, documentaries on
on Bogram.
Speaker 3 (09:58):
I mean, it was just such a center hold in
the entire war process.
Speaker 1 (10:03):
And I, like, I said, I until you just said
that's like, yeah, I remember seeing the C one thirty
ones pulling away and remember all the Afghan people running
to jump on it.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Literally is it's going.
Speaker 1 (10:12):
Down the runway right and getting up in the landing
gear compartment and so on and so forth. So anyways, yeah,
I started to deviate on that, but yeah, it's it's important,
it is.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
It's just crazy. It's just it's just absolutely crazy.
Speaker 1 (10:26):
So anyways, that's kind of one of the many things
we'll talk about this, right. You know, we had a
fed interest rate decision markets at all time high, the
US government now you know, owning ten percent of Intel.
Speaker 3 (10:38):
Did you see that stat yesterday? I covered it with
the boys yesterday.
Speaker 1 (10:41):
So our our our nine point nine percent stake that
we took an Intel, you know for quote the chips
money that it equated to about roughly five billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (10:54):
Yeah, in the stock how much?
Speaker 1 (10:57):
And it's now worth almost ten billion dollars the US
government and has already made four billion dollars.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Do we sell it to in video? Who took a stake.
Speaker 1 (11:04):
That's what I wondered, because, yeah, the video's five billion
dollar investment yesterday propelled us to make almost five billion
dollars profit on that one. You think that do you
really think that one wasn't Now we're going to go
down to deep part here. Do you not think that
that was an orchestrated deal with with Sure, Yeah, Jensen
wong to say, hey, you want some special treatment getting
(11:26):
your chips into China and a few other things that
you're trying to do that you can't do with that
to help them our foundry, Yeah, yeah, why don't you
take a little bit of money out of out of
the bank account and mister wan and invested in this
little company called Intel, And then all of a sudden
they do that and now they're co partners in a
uh and and some new server you know, locations and
(11:47):
partners in this and partners in that City Group had
the guts to day to come out and go, this
isn't the deal everybody thinks they did, and they downgraded
Intel on.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
It, and and the fabulous approach is what got us
into trouble too, with like offloading every everything to TSM,
et cetera. Just because it was cheaper, you know, so
on and so forth. But again, cheaper now doesn't necessarily
mean cheaper later. Yeah, and that's the problem we've gotten
into with offloading all of our labor and offloading all
of our sort of you know, businesses to other places
(12:15):
for better earnings. Now you're in a pretty tough spot.
Speaker 3 (12:19):
Yep. Absolutely all right.
Speaker 1 (12:21):
We had a lot of things to talk about on
this Friday afternoon. Let's first turn it over to the
wonderful Kristin Snow right now traffic center, Happy Friday, Kristin,
how are you? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show
on News Talk seven eighty k o H with Jason gandal.
Speaker 3 (12:36):
Right.
Speaker 1 (12:36):
Here's how we finished in this record setting day, a
one seventy three game on the dial, point three seven
percent to a close of forty six thousand, three hundred
and fifteen. As that grows one hundred and sixty one
point seventy two percent, closing at twenty two thousand and
six thirty one s andp up thirty two or point
four nine percent to a close there of six thousand,
six hundred and sixty four. So Jason and I were
(12:58):
kind of talking about our portfolio performance numbers et cetera.
During the break, and we're talking about year to date
numbers and Jason, let's kind of move over to this
and then we'll turn it over to you to have
the market recap for the day.
Speaker 3 (13:08):
But you know, it's these record setting days.
Speaker 1 (13:12):
Like I said, I think what we have three of
them this week if I remember correctly, we're sending some
pretty positive numbers. I mean, ZEK for year to dates
now up seventeen point two percent. S and P's up
thirteen point three, Down's up eight point nine lagging a
bit there, and the Rustle two thousand now hire by nine.
Speaker 3 (13:27):
Point eight percent on a year to day basis.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
So again, you know here we are a little over
halfway through the year and it's moving nicely and the
interest raight cut cycles only begun.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
Yeah, and we talked too, you know IFA, which is Europe,
Asia Far East up twenty four percent this year, Emerging
markets right all the China hatred et cetera, EM up
twenty seven percent this year. Right, So those are you know,
if you're asking where do I go when the dollars
week overseas? Right, That's why these markets tend to do
(14:01):
well when you get a weeker dollar is that simple
math we've talked about. If I'm going to go buy
a European company, I'm selling dollars, buying euro, and then
buying that company. So if the dollar weekends and my
home currency is dollars and I own euro, and euro's appreciating,
and even if the stock is trading in line with
the S and P five hundred, eventually I sell that stock,
(14:24):
sell euro by dollars, and I outperform because the currency effects.
So that's a place to move too. If you're ever
worried about a dollar depreciating of some kind, owning non
dollar assets is a way to hedge some of your
dollar exposure. So just something to think about with having
a diversified.
Speaker 3 (14:41):
And that's and that's a great reminder.
Speaker 1 (14:43):
And if this situation holds with the dollar, euro, et cetera,
when earning season comes out, you know, here we are
mid little after mid point of September, obviously we had
quarterly earnings coming out second week or so of October,
you could start seeing some currency valuation issues apples.
Speaker 2 (15:01):
Yeah, exactly. They take it in a lot of euro,
they take it in a lot of year, and they
taken a lot of other currencies that very much to
your point, can some some closet beats because of a
currency trans translation that had been a headwind for the
last couple of years because the dollar has been so strong,
So you can see a bit of a reversal for sure.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
Another bizarre thing that just occurred to me this week
as you were talking about euro Trump's recommendation to the
SEC to do away with quarterly reportings and go to
semi annual.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Uh, yeah, I can see it, right, I mean maybe
I don't know. If you're looking from a company standpoint,
it makes sense, right, they don't have to spend so
much time on court. I mean think of how much
changes quarter to quarter, but more so how much you know,
time spent on reporting and earnings and this, Like you
(15:57):
could probably have more of a long term view with
your report and you've got a lot more of the color. Yeah,
the flip side being the stock market right has less
color and making its decisions. I mean you mentioned this,
I don't know a couple of weeks ago, is like,
how do companies go out and beat by a bazillion percent?
(16:18):
Like they don't pre announce anymore, Like when's the last
time that you remember a company pre announcing a quarter
like they don't do it anymore? Where's that right? Like
that transparency seems to have gone away as well, So yeah,
it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1 (16:33):
Well, let's go back into the record book a little bit.
For those of you that don't know market history. In
nineteen seventy is when the quarterly reporting started by the SEC.
Required by the SEC. Prior to that, I don't even
know what it was if I don't remember, if it
was six months or a year, who know, I don't know,
But nineteen seventy is when it started. Now, to your point,
there's two arguments. I guess I did not know this
(16:55):
until I looked this up. But your European countries because
they're under different accountingsystem, they're not under fasby like we
are here. In many cases, they actually report on a
semi annual basis, and supposedly those companies, to your point,
love it right. It's less compliance work. Bottom line, it's
less work for them. But many are criticizing the President
for even bringing this up to the SEC. And if
(17:17):
you want to see something interesting, folks go to CNBC
dot com bring up their videos of an interview this
morning with our new SEC chairman. And if I was
a betting man, I'd say this is going to happen.
Speaker 3 (17:27):
He seemed.
Speaker 1 (17:30):
I'd say optimistic, And again I don't have any timeframe,
but it was just my opinion kind of reading his
body language that this is something they are the SEC
is seriously considering. But anyways, some are criticizing the President
saying this is a way for companies to cover things up,
and Trump's like, no, wait a minute, we need to
get away from companies management being able to having to
focus I should say, having to focus on performance every
(17:54):
ninety days and instead yeah, going out to one hundred
and eighty days, or if you look at you know,
Japanese companies, they manage for fifty one hundred years out right.
And so that's the reason the President is recommending this
to the SEC. But there's a part of me also
that says, and this is why the President's getting criticized
on this, that you get a lot of time. One
hundred and eighty days is a lot of time to
(18:15):
cover up problems, right, Remember, folks, when a company has
anything of material importance I mean, and that's a vague,
vague term, they have to report it. On their you know,
on their on their ten Q which is the quarterly
filings or any other filing. There's all kinds of different
read Yeah, reg FD, they have to let it the
world know essentially, So some are saying, well, wait a
(18:36):
minute here, if we have to wait one hundred and eighty,
well there'd be more than that, right In other words,
you know, semi annual reporting, that's a lot of time
that companies can really kind of push things under the
under the carpet, and the investment public isn't going to
know where quarterly, it's pretty easy to you know, start
to spot some problems. So I personally think, like I said,
(18:57):
after hearing that interview and watching that interview with the
the SEC chairman, Jay, I think it's I think it's
gonna happen. I don't know when, but yeah, I think
it's got a pretty good, pretty good amount of traction
so far, you know.
Speaker 2 (19:07):
And I'd be comfortable with that. I'd be comfortable with
that if the choice was to then pre announce if
earnings are going to be materially different than what you reported,
and we'll call it. I'll just make up at number
twenty five percent better or worse. Something versus you know,
creating a bunch of shock and awe in between. You
know me, I'd love to have less earning season, it.
Speaker 3 (19:26):
Thinks, Yeah, well it makes it, it does. It does
make it tough for everybody.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
But yeah, I was just thinking that's usually a lot
of our radio show the first first month after quarterly
and is like, well, we're gonna have to you know,
really have to find a lot of things to talk
about during that time period of collly did every since.
Speaker 2 (19:41):
But totally I think we can do it.
Speaker 3 (19:44):
We got we get it, that's for sure. All Right.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
We always put together seven key takeaways of this week,
and we're going to come back and cover those with you.
But first let's turned over to Jack Saban. He's got
news traffic and whether. Hey Jack, Yeah, welcome back to
the John Sanchez Show on News Talk seven eighty K.
It's what Jason gott We finished up one seventy three
on the Dow to a close record close a forty
six three fifteen point three seven percent rise s and
(20:07):
p up thirty two points point four nine percent. And
as that gained one's sixty seven two percent. All right,
it's now time for us to get down to the
heart of the today's show, the takeaways of the week
on Wall Street. So we of course have to talk
about the biggest thing of the entire week, Jason, that
was the FED interest straight cut by a quarter percent.
Speaker 3 (20:25):
What does this mean? How is the market reaction? Take
it away on this point.
Speaker 2 (20:29):
Yeah. I think the interesting thing that you guys have
touched on with us as well as with Corey and
Dwight is day cut rates rates go up, right, and
I think the market taking in more and more data
over time will help dictate which direction rates ultimately do
move on the longer end. Clearly, the Fed controls the
shorter end, but they don't control the five year, the
(20:50):
ten year, the twenty, et cetera. And if data keeps
coming in good right, as in remember the jobless claim
number this week was better than last weeks was. I
guess there was a Texas effect? You know, the rates
went up because the market's like, oh, I thought we
were going to get four cuts in the next six months.
Now it's two and a half, and so, you know,
(21:11):
but we got what we expected. FED has cut rates
one of the time when they're a ninety percent or
more probability of them doing so, and I expect they cut,
you know, at least October or December, most likely both,
but at least near term. We got the Fed rate
cut and hopefully the market doesn't freak out or the
economy doesn't slow too too much.
Speaker 1 (21:34):
Let's bring our producer on Bailey Bailey, jump on real quick.
I got a question where we're speaking of the the
Fed interest straight cut again. Quarter percent we got, but
some wanted more. We're glad we didn't, Billy you. You're
just informed this morning that you want Jason and I
to we're going to do a quick recording to send
out to everybody, video recording explaining why these mortgage rates
(21:56):
are up. I'm going to round it roughly a quarter
percent in the last three days since this Fed interest
straight cut.
Speaker 3 (22:01):
Where where you going to be.
Speaker 4 (22:02):
Posting that at That'll be posted on all of our
social media and YouTube as well. Head to the YouTube
that's our main hub for all of our videos, radio recordings,
et cetera. So the John Sanchez Show on YouTube.
Speaker 1 (22:13):
Okay, Yeah, I just wanted to inform you that Jay,
we got to do that recording. Are getting a lot
of questions on that. Yeah, poor to whight he's the
one really.
Speaker 3 (22:22):
Getting a lot of questions, and he was saying yesterday,
he's like, people are pissed. They're like, what do you mean.
Speaker 1 (22:28):
You know, the rapes last week were you know, this
level another way up this level, and how did that happen?
Speaker 3 (22:34):
The FED cut rates?
Speaker 2 (22:34):
You know, And again, no matter what, no matter what,
we listen to the show, We've been talking about it.
Speaker 3 (22:38):
Show, been talking about it for months, and that was
one of the risks.
Speaker 1 (22:41):
So and again folks were still north of you know,
eighty percent probability as of this was yesterday and a
chance to see the numbers today, but north of eighty
percent probability of an October rate cut, of a quarter percent,
north of seventy percent probability of a December rate cut.
Speaker 3 (22:55):
So this is what we're saying. This is what we
got to be paying attention to.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
This is why it's important that you know, meet with
us or another advisor, or take a look yourself if
you're self managing at your allocation. This is really almost
kind of a new world when it comes to asset allocation. Jayson,
want to go back to your point you said at
the beginning of the show. For those that just may join.
One area that just stands out that if you're lacking
exposure or a decent allocation, you need to take a
(23:19):
look at it.
Speaker 3 (23:19):
That's the small caps. That is one area. It's like
a given that you move into when rates start cutting down.
Speaker 2 (23:24):
Coming to yeah, I mean, it's certainly an area you
want to be picking at. Right. Why because they tend
to have floating rate debt exposure. Right. They borrow to
fund their business. Right, A smaller company isn't Google. They're
not sitting there swimming in cash. They're financing their business.
Another area biotech, Right, they're very cash sensitive. They don't
(23:44):
make any money. Right, They borrow money and or have
investors that borrow money, and so as rates go down,
the cost to fund their business changes, and they tend
to act well. Banks. Right, these small cap banks, you've
got to upward sloping or more upward sloping yield curve.
What do they do? They borrow short and they lend long.
(24:05):
So as rates are coming down they're benefiting from It
costs them less money to give you interest in your
savings account for them to go lend to finance. Those
companies that need to borrow at five percent, they borrow
from you at three Guess what that's called that interest margin,
So banks win to that. So just looking around for
areas that tend to benefit from a lower rate environment.
(24:28):
Who borrows? Okay, well let's start sniffing around there. Small
caps as of place, so you certainly should be looking at.
Nothing's guaranteed, but they have certainly been showing to be
working recently.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
Absolutely.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
Also one thing to keep in mind, we're talking earlier
about earning season. Keep in mind, folks, probably too soon
when the third quarter earnings numbers come out due to
this rate kit. But also keep in mind, in a
lower interest rate environment, what typically you're going to see
is banks going out, or excuse me, firms, companies of
all sizes and industries going out. They borrow cheap, and
then they do stock buybacks.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
Right.
Speaker 1 (25:01):
They love doing stock buybacks when interest rates are coming down.
Why because remember the fewer number of shares that are
on the float, meaning that are out there being publicly traded. Uh,
they can start buying those back. That has basically an
immediate almost an immediate impact to the earnings per shared numbers. So,
in other words, you spend a little bit of money,
you borrow at whatever three four percent, you go out,
you buy your stock back. Usually you're going to get
(25:22):
a boost in many cases to your stock appreciation because
Wallstree gets really excited.
Speaker 3 (25:26):
About it, and it's a kind of a win win.
Speaker 1 (25:28):
I mean, we saw that with Apple Jay remember that
in the last interest right cut Apple which historically has
not been a big borrower. Remember they went out, they
issued a bunch of debt in a bunch of lawns
and things like that, and they did it. You know, again,
that's another thing that the debt issuance, meaning the bonds.
You're gonna see companies doing a lot of that in
this low low environment if it continues.
Speaker 2 (25:46):
Absolutely absolutely, And.
Speaker 1 (25:48):
Those earnings for share, by the way, folks, if you want,
you know, you want to hear about a company, if
you're invest in a stock, you want to hear about
those companies announcing stock buybacks because again that if done
correctly and all things being equal, that should equate to
good earnings per share number And we know the number
one driver to his stock performance is earnings. So you
see how the stock market tends to historically rise in
a low interest rate environment. All right, now, speaking of rising, boy,
(26:10):
we rose this week, Jason, we had records. Like I said,
I think three days this week, the Now, the Nazak,
the SMP in the Russell two thousand.
Speaker 2 (26:17):
But why yeah, I think there's a big beta chase
going on too. Right, there's been a lot of investors, advisors,
et cetera that we're concerned about tariffs, They were concerned
about an economy slowing down. They were concerned about seeing
the jobs numbers doing what they are. You know, fedbe
damned and you're you know you're underperforming. Right, if we
(26:39):
were talking earlier, the move from April till now is
twenty plus percent right, and people got caught wrong way
and they're forced to chase now. And remember we even
talked about it on the show. You know, August September
tend to be a bad time of the year. Guess
what it hasn't been. So if you've been sitting there defensive,
waiting for the big pullback, thinking you're going to be
(27:01):
a market timer, guess what you got run over and so.
Speaker 1 (27:04):
And that's a good sign. Don't beat yourself up. If
you missed it to those historical points, that's a good
sign for the rest of the year. Right, we don't
historically sell off in the August September time period that
tends to be good showing for the rest of the year.
Speaker 2 (27:20):
I'm feeling, my spider sense is feeling a twenty twenty
one reducs where the market really got frothy into November.
So that's where my mind's at right now, thinking, you know,
we've got an amazing returns so far this year, you
got all these positive catalysts. Does the market get ahead
(27:40):
of itself sort of around that November timeframe?
Speaker 3 (27:44):
So, but that's what we November.
Speaker 2 (27:46):
I just you know, year ends, right, people start to
window dress like they say, okay, I've had for the
others who have been invested, start to cut exposure into
year end, just thinking, hey, we've done really well. I'm
going to take the other Yeah, respect yours that you
want to talk about it?
Speaker 1 (28:02):
Yeah, yeah, but real quickly before we go to break,
let's take the other side of it. Back to what
you just said, which is the catchup. Depending on whose
daddy you look, you look at, and there's a wide range,
but there's somewhere between four. I even't heard as high
as seven trillion dollars this morning. Seven trillion dollars in
cash slash money market type of instruments. And to your
point that money this money manager is watching the interview
(28:23):
on he's like, same thing as what you just said.
Speaker 3 (28:25):
They're gonna chase.
Speaker 1 (28:25):
They have to chase, and meaning they got to get
some of that money out, not all of it, of course,
they gotta get some of that money out and and
get into the market. So that could be kind of
that that final oomph back to that you know, last
two or three months of the year to make these
numbers go high. So yeah, anything can happen, but I'm
gonna I'm gonna bet on the optimistic.
Speaker 2 (28:43):
Side and that and again I still think we're higher
at the you know, at the end of the year
than we are now. Oh sure, it's just more of
you know, sort of thinking back to like twenty twenty
right where I guess people puked everything and then just
sort of slowly rolled back in and then buy the
fall of twenty one, everything was amazing. Nothing could ever
go down again, and that's why. And then rolls around
(29:06):
and right, and then you know you step on that
front door and get hit by a semi right. So
that's that's at least part of where yeah, you know,
sort of thinking, you know, I really get worried twenty
six twenty seven because of all the debt refinance and
again another show, but near term, that's what's fair.
Speaker 1 (29:23):
Sorry, you're worried about twenty twenty seven? All right, let
me shut you up. There you gonna go before he come,
you know, thanks you puts a cup of coffee to
his head or something was wrap up a Christmas noll
right now trafficca Hello Christin, Welcome back to the John
Sanchez Show on News Talk seven to eighty k, which
with Jason Gott. Once again, we had record setting days today.
(29:44):
We're trying to explain, well, we're some of the big
highlights of this weekend so far. Again we talked about
the Fed interest straight kind of a quarter percent to
take away from the street and you know from mister
Powell and a roundabout way that Hey, you know, once
again this is kind of look that dot plot. This
is something else we didn't get chance to really go
into great detail about.
Speaker 3 (29:59):
Jason.
Speaker 1 (30:00):
You know, you had had a good majority of the
of the members. It was almost split. How many you want,
you know, a couple more cuts this year and how
many don't so futures a little cloudy there, but hey,
you know what it is, what it is, and we
don't have to talk about the fit again from that
standpoint until October. Again, markets heading all the time high.
As we said we talked earlier. The other big highlight
of this week of Intel once again, stock storring about
(30:20):
twenty three percent for the week. It was a really
strong week again with the five billion dollar investment announced
by Navidio yesterday. Let's stuck some inflows, right, One thing, folks.
One of the indicators that we look at, of course,
deciding where we want to be with our clients in
our portfolios, we watch money flows. It's called fifty seven
billion dollars a fresh money float into US stocks this week.
(30:43):
But we can take the other side of the argument
and say, yeah, you know what, when investor confidence, especially
retail investor confidence.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
Says hi, that's when the markets can get a little overheated.
Speaker 2 (30:52):
Yeah, I mean, you know, looking at the charts, yes,
we're not overbought yet, so that's at least a positive
thing sort of momentum. We're on the upper end of bought,
but we're not overheated.
Speaker 1 (31:05):
Right.
Speaker 2 (31:05):
That's where I start to get worried, and then I
really start to get worried when you start to see
sort of the technicals show you that even though the
markets are making highs, the momentum indicators are starting to weaken.
That's called divergence, and we're not really seeing a lot
of that yet. So I still think that things look
good overall, and there's a lot of support levels under
(31:27):
this market. So if we get a pullback, there's multiple
moving averages below here that provide for some ballast. And
that's why I think that people are cautiously optimistic in
your risk unless there's some unknown seems still pretty well
balanced as far as it seems like.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
Every time we get a little bit of a dip
in the market, whether it's inter day or for the day,
which we haven't had much of that knock on wood
for a while, everyone comes back and goes, wait a minute,
there's a lot of cash sitting in the money market
accounts and this great thing called AI that's just beginning,
So that seems to be the you know, the golden
carrot that's hanging out there from users to hold on.
Speaker 3 (32:00):
So that's pretty good stuff there.
Speaker 1 (32:02):
Let's see we touched about tech bond yields again coming
down a little bit today five basis pointing excuse me, eight, Yeah,
I can't read my numbers.
Speaker 3 (32:11):
I'm sorry.
Speaker 1 (32:12):
Four basis point increase for the day four fourteen, but
for the week up eight basis points on that ten
year treasure yield. And then let's wrap things up, Jason
with a couple min it's remaining the big risk our
point number seven. As you mentioned high valuations, we've got
energy costs, we've got global tensions. All this of course,
could you know, it's like when we're kids and we
put our foot out to trip our friends. Those type
of things can happen. So, you know, I guess the
(32:33):
best way I'm gonna go back to my surfing analogy,
because it's the weekend. I'm thinking of the ocean, that is,
ride the wave as long as we can, but don't
hesitate to get off and swim to sure if they
start to get a little bit troubled waters.
Speaker 2 (32:43):
I agree. Yeah, it was all at the top of mine.
That was good. That was really good. Yeah, it's like
a bridge over troubled waters.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Yeah. I started to find myself using that tone.
Speaker 2 (32:53):
Yeah, Yeah, there are risks, I would argue the risks
are more the unknown risks rights. I will do my
best to stay away from political but you know, the
concerns around what people are saying and all of that, right,
that can cause a bit of angst. I'm hearing it
from clients who we are typically fairly conservative. We're like,
(33:15):
what the heck's going on here? Those things can create
some tensions. And then the global part two, right, you know,
with Afghanistan, as you mentioned, you know clearly Russia is
not in the rear view, Ukraine is not in the
rear view. Any of those things that could cause shocks
of some kind, be it geopolitical or even oil or
(33:35):
those could trip things up. But you know we don't
have those today.
Speaker 3 (33:39):
So yeah, exactly, nothing too crazy on the calendar for
next week. Knows.
Speaker 1 (33:45):
We didn't really spend much time on it, but we
got some PC data on Friday, personal income obviously that
same day, but and then the third estimate on GDP,
so there's gonna be our big ones coming our ways.
Other than that, enjoy the week, and my friend, enjoy
the week, and everybody, hey, thanks for let us be
a part of your life. God bless We will see
you all on Monday on The John Sanchez Show see
Jay John Sanchez is a registered investment advisor, and the
(34:09):
opinions expressed by Sanchez Gone Capital Management LLC on this
show or their own and do not reflect the opinions
of News Talks seven eighty or its pairing company, Cumulus Media.
All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable,
although it should not be relied upon. As such, Any
statements or opinions are subject to change without notice. Information
(34:30):
presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend
to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or
purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies.
Speaker 3 (34:41):
Investments involve risk, and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (34:45):
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation
or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for
any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a
qualified tax, legal, or investment advisor to determine whether any
information I presented may be suitable for their specific situation.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
My Favorite Murder with Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark
My Favorite Murder is a true crime comedy podcast hosted by Karen Kilgariff and Georgia Hardstark. Each week, Karen and Georgia share compelling true crimes and hometown stories from friends and listeners. Since MFM launched in January of 2016, Karen and Georgia have shared their lifelong interest in true crime and have covered stories of infamous serial killers like the Night Stalker, mysterious cold cases, captivating cults, incredible survivor stories and important events from history like the Tulsa race massacre of 1921. My Favorite Murder is part of the Exactly Right podcast network that provides a platform for bold, creative voices to bring to life provocative, entertaining and relatable stories for audiences everywhere. The Exactly Right roster of podcasts covers a variety of topics including historic true crime, comedic interviews and news, science, pop culture and more. Podcasts on the network include Buried Bones with Kate Winkler Dawson and Paul Holes, That's Messed Up: An SVU Podcast, This Podcast Will Kill You, Bananas and more.