September 30, 2025 • 34 mins
In this episode of The Jon Sanchez Show, we review the potential U.S. government shutdown and what it could mean for markets, economic reports, and real estate transactions. With the Non-Farm Payroll Report at risk of delay, Jon discusses the uncertainty this creates for investors and how real estate activity may be disrupted in the near term.
👉 Watch this episode on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@thejonsanchezshow
👉 To learn more about retirement planning and wealth management in Reno, visit: sanchezgaunt.com
Compliance Disclosure: This program is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are those of the participants and may not reflect the views of Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional regarding your individual situation before making financial decisions.
👉 Watch this episode on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@thejonsanchezshow
👉 To learn more about retirement planning and wealth management in Reno, visit: sanchezgaunt.com
Compliance Disclosure: This program is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment, tax, or legal advice. The views expressed are those of the participants and may not reflect the views of Sanchez Gaunt Capital Management. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always consult with a qualified financial professional regarding your individual situation before making financial decisions.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
Good Tuesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez
Show on News Talk seven eighty k which it's a
pole leasure to be with you on this pre government
shut down. Oh boy, but let's get we'll get to
that that that bad news here momentary. Let's go around
the horn first of all and make our introductions. Mister
Dwight Millard of Highlands, Morgans. How are you, sir?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
I'm doing fantastic, probably better tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Huh, well, really better tomorrow, which would be worse tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Hey, I'm trying to be optimistic.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
John.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Then you don't have to work.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I'm going to say, yeah, to work. Everything's going to
be shut down.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
I don't think I'm very essential, so I'm good.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
You know, but all the people you deal with, they
get those loan approvals. True, I know. I was just
kind of hoping that. You know, how come the stock
market's not effective, the government shutdown? Right, give us a
day off. Come on, Corey individually, Hey do Bixie.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
I'm doing great. How are you good?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Very good? Thank you? Well, folks, we kind of give
you the t's as to exactly what we're gonna be
talking about. We're gonna recap of course, what happened in
the month and then the quarter, it's all over. We
were onto a brand new month starting tomorrow, we're on
to a brand new quarter, the final quarter of twenty
twenty five. Right. Our whole world of the stock market,
of course, is impacted by quarterly numbers. So well, you know, look, geez,
(01:21):
Corey and Dwight, you know, I know, Corey, you know this.
It's looking like SEC is really starting to lean towards
no more quarterly numbers right twice a year. That's that's
where it's I think it's head.
Speaker 4 (01:31):
So I've read that. I mean I've read it the
last couple of weeks when they're talking about it. But
now I think the SEC chairman right came out and said,
now we're gonna fast track this and we're gonna we're
gonna fast those What is that? What does that when
get into it later if you want, but what what
does that do to you?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Like? What does that do to you? Know?
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I can make an argument, Corey, of positives and negatives
to going to you know, semi annual quarterly or semi quarterly. See,
it's drilled into my brain after thirty five years, semi
annual earning reports versus quarterly the quarterly numbers. Of course,
obviously you're able to sometimes I go, you know, even
a quarter seems like too long. Now six months will
(02:08):
seem like an eternity. But from from a you know,
like the President's argument is, look at Japan, right, they
manage their businesses for ten twenty fifty years down the road. Well,
we're not Japan, So can we manage our businesses? Can
we make investment decisions on a semi annual basis? It's
going to be It's definitely going to be more difficult.
(02:29):
There's no doubt about it. I mean, I'll be honest
with you. Will I enjoy it, yes, because it is
a lot of work on our part, both for me
on the stock up dates on the show and for
you know, managing portfolios and stuff based upon quarterly numbers.
So if we could bump that out to say, you know,
twice a year, yeah, that could that could ease some
of the managerial burden there, and like I said, some
(02:50):
of the radio burden. But you know, if you boil
it down, no, I mean, like I said, six months
in Wall Street time is an eternity to every else,
So it will. It will come with its challenges and
then you know. Then the other thing, too, Corey, is
what do you do with the economic data? Right? So
if you get monthly data like we do on so
many important things, how do you factor that in as
(03:12):
far as your models and things when it comes to
how it's going to impact you know, XYZ Corporation. So
it will take some getting used to. But from everything
that I've read and heard, exactly as you said, the
chairman of the SEC Trump appointed the other day said
we're going to fast track this thing. I think it
makes perfect sense. So I think it's going to help.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
And it'll be interesting to see if it increases volatility
because everybody's going to be guessing, or if it decreases
volatility because nobody will make a.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Decision exactly six months. Yeah, and we don't know, We
don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Could you imagine the market they'll leading up to that day?
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Yeah, you're right, right, Yeah, that's that's yeah, you're absolutely right.
Well a lot of people don't know this, but it
was we go all the way back to nineteen seventy
is when they started quarterly numbers. I don't know what
they did before that. If it was semi annual or annually,
but nineteen seventy is when the quarterly numbers started. So yeah,
it's gonna be interesting. But hey, you know what, let's
get it. Let's dip our feet into it and kind
of see what it's like to you know, make our
(04:06):
economic and financial decisions, uh, without any government data or
quarterly numbers, because it looks like, folks, we're gonna have
a government shut down.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Yeah, we'll find out.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
We're gonna find out. We're gonna dip our toes into
this right now here, you know, in the in the
next twenty four hours or show. And so this is
exactly what we're going to be focusing on after the
stock market update, and that is you know, Corey and
Dwight's world, many of you may not realize this, and
especially on the on Dwight side of things, is so
intertwined with the government. I mean, Dwight just you know again,
(04:38):
you're gonna go through so many different areas that are
going to impact those that are out there that are
you know, in the in the mortgage pipeline or boy,
they were ready to you know, pull the trigger tomorrow
or in the next couple of days. Forget about it, right,
and you're going to tell us about that. But you
know there's one thing that comes to mind, uh tax transcripts, right.
I mean i RS is going to be shut down
real quickly, Dwight, and then we're gonna start plowing into
(04:59):
this because it's going to be a very interesting topic.
You were on the phone with somebody today, and tell
tell the audience what I told you.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Well, I needed a piece of paper of course from
SBA so Small Business Administration on a you know, a
reconsideration of payment plan. But anyhow, I got it on
the phone. I said, listen, is there any chance I'm
going to get this today? Because if I don't get
it today, I assume you won't be here tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
If there's a shiit that goes. She goes, absolutely not,
we are not also be here. And I'm like, oh no,
and you know, of course I didn't get the piece
of paper.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
So so now okay, so real quickly explain what happens
to your client now you have to do.
Speaker 5 (05:34):
Well, yeah, I'm hoping that a cert that I did,
you know, a lender certification, will allow me to move forward.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
But this gets real complicated. It becomes a real mess.
Speaker 5 (05:46):
Because they don't really give you the provision to do
follow up conditions. John, So, I mean, you're not going
to be able to put transcripts in after you fund
the loan and it's been sold.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
So everything's got to be do upfront.
Speaker 5 (05:59):
And you know, I think I might be able to
get out of this one, but I just didn't like,
you know, and she kind of t he he you know,
we're not gonna be here.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
It's like, okay, well, I mean in defense of her,
you know, well you got booked. Well, they're gonna get paid, right,
They're gonna be They're gonna be furloughed. The latest indication
from CNBC at least is seven hundred and fifty thousand
federal workers according to the to the CBO, the UH
(06:28):
seven hundred and fifty thousand federal workers will be furloughed.
But we got to go a step further, guys. As
we discussed last week, you know, on this topic, and
that is Trump made it very clear that, uh, you
know what, we did not talk about it because Trump
this made the comments yesterday. Trump made it very clear
that and I'm gonna paraphrase, he's going to use this
as a reason. Quote or excuse in real terms, to
(06:52):
permanently fire. Some are saying hundreds of thousands of government
workers that that what he feels are not needed. Almost
some of are like what we went through a he's
going to use this government shut down as a reason
to permanently get rid of that. So imagine being a
government work and you're going, oh, yeah, meah, I'm gonna
have a spot day tomorrow, I'm gonna get paid, and
you come back and go your position has been permanently
you know, eliminated, obviously no fault of your own. But
(07:14):
but there's a lot of ramifications this. This is one
analyst said today, this is different this time around. Right,
stock market usually does okay when the government shut down
and no real major market reaction and you know, so
on and so forth, actually slightly rises. But this analyst
brought up a good point. He's not the only one
that said that it's this time could be different because
we've got a lot of things going on. We have
(07:35):
the critical one. I mean, Corey, you and I talk
about this one all the time. The non farm payroll numbers, right,
that's coming out Friday or it was. We don't have that. Now,
imagine if you. You know, again, if you're an economist
or anybody that needs that data to make an informed
business decision, you're not going to have it, you know, Corey,
excuse my reach here, let's be on camera. But you
know tomorrow we have We've got ADP, so we'll get that,
(07:58):
right Well, I always get that on Wednesday before the
non farm parable numbers. But we've got construction spinning, and
we have another big one, the ISM Manufacturing Report, that
is very important for us to try to figure out
what's going on in the industrial sector. I gotta get that.
So probably the one thing we'll get tomorrow. Least way
to look right now is ADP. That's something changes between
now and nine pm R time.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
So no, and then you know, I agree with you,
and I probably watched that same analyst that Trump is
not the kind of person that's going to give in.
So if you're going to pick a fight with them,
you better be ready to right to set it out andation.
The longer this thing goes, then you get into the
FED meeting, which granted is twenty eight days away, twenty
nine days away, but.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
You can try got that long.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
The longer you get there, I don't even know if
they're essential, right, can they even meet? So you get
into all these different things. I haven't read a lot
about maybe you know or don't know. I can look
it up at the break, but I've heard him talk
about that, Hey, if this happens, I'm going to use
an excuse to fire. What what gives the excuse to
fire because of the shut down? What does the shutdown
do that allow us?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
The fire?
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Lation is?
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Okay?
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Yeah, I don't know what. I've tried to think about
that and I've not been able to find anything about it.
Who knows what's going through his mind? You know how
how he's rationalizing it in his in his mind the
only thing that I saw today, and I don't have
it in front of me. So I'm gonna again kind
of paraphrase it is he's gonna get, you know, closed down.
(09:19):
I'm just gonna pick a hypothetical number, let's say two
hundred thousand jobs. And the key on the sentence was
that he feels are not needed. So back to your point,
how do you define that right? How is he able
to be the one that says that or not needed? Well,
I don't think we can argue it again. Look what
they did in Doge. I mean, all of a sudden,
here goes you know, whole hundreds of thousands of jobs gone,
(09:40):
and you know, some of those have been brought back,
but a lot of them have it. So he's got
the power to do it. You know, he wields the pin.
He wields the pin. So we're going to get into this, folks,
because again it's it can impact all of our lives
unless again something changes here, you know, on our time
in the next you know, roughly you know, five hours
and fifteen minutes. But let me kind of start with
what happened in the market today. So we had a
(10:03):
pretty volatile session. But again all we care about is
where we finished at one o'clock today, and it turned
out to be, you know, fairly decent day after all.
Matter of fact, a record closed for the Dow. We
finished up eighty two points after being down well over
one hundred for most of the session. We closed that
forty six thousand and three ninety seven. And again just
to show my age, guys, when I got in this business,
(10:24):
weird about twenty two hundred on the dow, twenty two hundred.
There we are forty six thousand, three ninety seven. Now's
that cup seven sixty seven point three eight percent excuse me,
sixty nine point three zero percent gain in the SMP
rows twenty seven points er point four to one percent, Dwight.
Let's since we got a lot of things to talk about,
let's let's let's delve over to you here in a moment,
oil prices pulled back a bucket eleven sixty two to
(10:46):
thirty seven a barrel. Another strong day for gold with
the nervousness of the government. Eighteen dollars and twenty cent
rise three thousand and eight seventy three forty and my friend,
one basis point increase on the tenure. This is I
guess the bright side, which is the bond market didn't panic.
We closed at four or fifth team. And here's the
staff for you, Dwight. We've actually finished down eight basis
points on the ten year treasury in the month of September,
so you know, through the FED cut and everything, they
(11:08):
eat out that. But I bet you can't say that
on the mortgage side.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
No, And I bet we were somewhere around twenty eight
until we had those last couple of weeks right or
last week or so, you know, We're in a nice
I guess comfort zone right now. Six point three seven
on the thirty year fixed Cordy is more Newsdaily fifteen one,
the one you like, John is five point eight nine
into the government's six point zero five and six point
zero seven. It'll be interesting to see if those change,
(11:36):
you know, or if there's just you know, with you know,
if we go into a government shutdown, if rates have
some sort of impact on it. But I guess the
rates really don't. It's the investors right that have, yes,
the final say on it. But you know, John, real quick,
I was watching or a program and it was saying
that the FAA will be around, but all these new
trainees they keep, you know, because they're so understaff. Those
(11:59):
go away for right now, all the training and everything,
So all you will have is just the ones that
are overworked right now.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
So that are overworked right now. Amazing. All right, Well,
we've got a lot of things to talk about about
how your money's going to be impacted by a government shutdown.
But first let's turn it over to christin snow. Let's
say our afternoons being impacted on the highways, and she
will let us know in the right now traffic center.
Hello Christen, Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on
News Talk seven eighty k wait with Corey as a
vigrility to whipe'm a art of Highlands mortgage. All right,
(12:25):
once again, we finished with a gain of eighty two
on the Dow to a record close a forty six
three ninety seven. Now it's like Cup sixty nine and
the S and P. I should have mentioned that was
a record finish, also up twenty seven points to close
at six thousand and six eighty eight. Corey, I was
digging up during the break. You know again the rationale
as to why the president wants to permanently eliminate these jobs,
(12:46):
and he said the following. That's according to Bloomberg. He said,
President Trump said, quote, a lot of good could stem
from a government shut down, threatening to aus federal workers
and eliminate programs that are favored by Democrats. If Congress
doesn't meet the midnight deadline tonight, quote, we can get
rid of a lot of things that we didn't want,
and they'd be democratic things. He told reporters in the
Oval Office today, they just don't learn, so we have
(13:07):
no choice. I have to do that for the country,
so they.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
Yeah, I'm just curious if it's a like, is it
because of the shutdown that allows it or could he
do it today if he wanted to, even without the shutdown.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Like, I think he'd probably do it today. I mean, okay,
the reason I say that is because they did it
in Doze.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I was just reading a
different article too that said this time, I think Trump
said there'll be any of the furloughed employees will be
allowed to access their government emails so they can get
their layoff notices.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
It's so funny. He just doesn't mince words. There you go,
My goodness.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, all right, well there we go on that one.
All right, We're gonna get to our topic here in
a moment, how the government shut down is going to
impact even tomorrow, right if I mean again, we're gonna
assume that nothing's gonna happen here in the next few hours.
We're gonna assume this is to happen. But you know, guys,
there's you sit back and you and you kind of
(14:08):
again we take this with a with a you know,
kind of a grain of salt at this point and
go okay, well all right, so a little bit of
a government shutdown, but we really need to be thinking
about all of the repercussions that can happen from this,
and of course, whether it be in Tuesday, there's we've
got to focus on the real estate side of things.
So the boys are really put together some nice information
(14:29):
to to start really, you know, educating us on some
of the impacts in the real estate world. Do I
gave that story at the beginning of the show, but
do I. I'm going to start with you as the
as the mortgage professional. Like I said, you deal with
tax transcripts just as one issue, but let's kind of
get at least one or two points that that's going
to impact your business and therefore your borrowers. Uh, if
(14:51):
and when this government shut down happens, how are things
going to work?
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Well?
Speaker 5 (14:54):
John, the most the first and most obvious one is
you only get can get flood certification from one entity,
and that's the government. If you can't get a flood certification,
if you cannot get flood insurance, there's no way you're
gonna be able to close on that home. So if
you're getting close to being a title and that hasn't
been done, I mean that's gonna be a real problem.
(15:15):
So I mean, anybody that's in a flood zone, I
don't know how you get very proactive right now if
it's you know, coming tomorrow. But uh, that's a that's
a clear one. The other one that are going to
be transcripts, I mean the again from previous shutdowns. John,
These aren't things you can go back later and put
in the files. So tax transcripts, anything you need cavers,
(15:37):
you know, we have to run those. On government loans,
those are well, it stands for something, but those are
in depth. It brings up like any default on federal debt,
like student loans, SBA, those type of things. We have
to if you need to clear it. If you need
something that's gonna be there's not gonna be anybody there
to do it. So I mean most of your challenges
(15:59):
will come in the government arena. But don't forget Fanny
and Freddie fall into that as well.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
So it's.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
I want to just read this real quick to I
don't like to read things, but I think this is
very important for the audience. So in your notes, you
have under the Department of Housing and Urban Development, This
includes Faha and Jenny mays. As with previous shutdowns, operations
of the Department of Housing and Urban Development HUT, including
the Federal Housing and Administration FAHA and GENNY may would
be reduced considerably, which may impede the processing and closing
(16:29):
and mortgage loans. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing
will continue to endorse new loans with the exception of
home equity conversion mortgages, Title one loans and loan endorsements
that require assessment by the FJL Office of Multi Family
Housing will conduct closings and endorsements for projects with firm
commitments firm approval letters issued prior to the shutdown. They
will also process amendments to commitments. Other requests on only
(16:51):
be handled on an emergency basis and for the imminent
threat to the safety of residence for the or to
the protection of the HUT insured or assistant family projects.
Lenders will continue to have access to HUD systems such
as FAHA Connection as it will remain operational. However, actions
that require head personnel to your point to respond will
be delayed or suspended. The same applies to lenders lenders
(17:13):
inquiries submitted to FAHA Resource Center, which will remain open
to answer general questions or responses require escalation will be
delayed delayed. FAHA will continue to pay partial claims in
the event of a shutdown. Jenny May is largely unaffected
by the shutdown as that has a two year NBS
guarantee commitment authority that a lapse in appropriations will trigger
the approval of L and D. That gets pretty in
(17:34):
depth there. So either shutdown skeleton crew, which we know,
I mean, yeah, good luck trying to get through it,
probably right, do right, Yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
If you just can't get it through the system, if
you and you've got to rely on a source, a
person or something. Yeah, it's hard to prove emergency. So
when you talked about the heck em, that's the reverse mortgages.
So those go away for now. Yeah, So it's uh, yeah,
it'll be interesting because and the longer it goes, the
(18:06):
more difficult it becomes. Right because now you've got two
people where you had enough it's two hundred, You've got
two people, and you know, you go a month.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
I mean, it's just impossible.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
Like I said, I think the biggest key or takeaway
is it's so hard for lenders to band aid put
a band aid over it. Hope it goes out there
and you can follow up later with that, right, So,
do I give us some exceptions if it goes along?
Speaker 4 (18:31):
On the flood I understand the NFIP of the flood
insurance program, But do you have to get a clear
floodsirt on every property?
Speaker 2 (18:39):
No?
Speaker 5 (18:39):
No, just anything that's well you have to get a
flood shirt. Yeah, you have to get a flood certification.
But the flood insurance comes directly from.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Correct, I know that?
Speaker 4 (18:49):
But does does the flood surf come from NFIP also,
or that comes from a different source.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
I think that comes from a different source.
Speaker 3 (18:56):
Okay, that's what I.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
So we I mean, yeah, so we have to get
a flood certification. See John, on every loan we did?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Right? Yeah? All right, all right? When we come back
one who I'm just reading the notes here touch on
the Social Security Administration because that's a really important one,
not only for those you know, looking in the mortgage
side and the real estate side, but everything else. So
give you the update of what's what's going on there.
Sort over to Jack Saban He's got news traffic on weather. Hello, Jack,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show. On his top
(19:24):
seven eighty k wait to with the Corey edge of duality.
Dwight Millard of Highland's mortgage once again we finished at
a record close on the DOW and the S and
P five hundred now with eighty two Naza Crow sixty
nine and the smp Hire by twenty seven. All right,
we're discussing how the government shut down could affect the
real estate market, affect your lives, so and so forth.
So Dwight, I want to come back to the Social
Security Administration because I think there's a lot of confusion there.
(19:46):
So I'm going to take my part of it, and
then you're going to talk about the real estate side
of it. So they are saying at this point that
social Security checks and Medicare checks will continue. What's the
negative of how it's going to impact the mortgage worldwife, Well.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
We you know, we have to do so many verifications now,
you know, run up against social Security numbers, addresses, names, everything,
and this is going to put some strain on being
able if you have to get if you have to
go out to a third party and get some information,
it's just going to be almost impossible to get it.
(20:20):
And again, the longer we go and I'm just going
back to when I kind of remember if you you know,
when was the last one six years ago?
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Seven years ago?
Speaker 1 (20:28):
Yeah, it was under under the Trump administration.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, and you know, it was just difficult to get
anybody on the phone if you needed some help.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
And so I think that's what is going to happen here.
You know, if you need anything.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
From the Social Security Administration, they're going to be I
think at a skeletal staff, even though they're still going
to be there.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
So eighteenth lasted thirty five days.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
That takes us through the FED meeting if we do it.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
Again, and what probably two non firm payable numbers?
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Yeah, so then could could he claim emergency powers and
just lower the interest rates to half a percent because
the government shut down?
Speaker 1 (21:09):
Mister edge Corey is going going deep? Yeah, yeah, what
do he sense of Corey? Tell me?
Speaker 4 (21:19):
No, No, I'm just kidding. I mean, who knows they might.
It wouldn't surprise me if they pass a bill tonight
and this is all or not. I guess it would
surprise me a little bit. But I do think you know,
if I listened to them all day to day, I'm
sure you did to like, oh, the market doesn't care.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
The market doesn't care.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
We've been through this so many times, but I guess
you have been through it with Trump thirty five days
ago or a few years ago for thirty five days.
But I was listening to the reporter talked about that one,
and they said the only reason they came to terms
is because the budget. There was something happening on the
thirty six day where they had to open the government,
and they said, with this one, there is no clear
(21:54):
in the there's nothing in the future that's going to
force him to open it. And if you want to
play a game of I don't think Donald Trump's the
guy you want to play against because he just doesn't care.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Not that he doesn't care, but you know what I mean.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
He he's got a longer staying power than Chuck Schumer.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So yes, we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yeah, well, it feels like he's got a plan.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
And yeah, that's what I was going to say to it.
You took the words out of my mouth. It feels
like to me, there's something more to this than Okay,
the government can't get its budget agreed between the Democrats
and the Republicans. I agree, there's something deeper. Maybe to
your point, Cory is crazy. As much as we laughed,
that's a very valid point. Maybe there's something that we
(22:35):
don't know. I mean, none of us know the intricacies
of how the government works. But yeah, let's go down
that path. Yeah, so you're gonna miss two non firm
perile numbers. We know he doesn't like the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. He fired the head of it, brought in
his own person. The numbers weren't good in the first
month that that new person was at the job. Remember
when we get twenty two thousand new jobs. So maybe
this one on this Friday was going to be terrible.
(22:57):
You know, that could fuel one of the reasons to continue,
uh and to make this uh uh, this government shut
down happen. And I mean, Corey, that's going deep. But
begin brother, I gotta I gotta give you credit on that.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
And that's yeah, you know, and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
I mean, do those could I guess the question is
could the FED meet if there's a government shut down?
I wouldn't think so, yeah, you know, I don't know,
someone you have to look into. But if they don't meet,
But then what happens.
Speaker 4 (23:28):
Yeah, and think about all the I mean, it'll be
interesting to see this play he's got. There's so many
there's so many court cases happening right now. Go even
if you just look at what's happening with the FED
and they're waiting on decisions. And for those court cases
you have, you have government attorneys that are arguing. So
do they still go argue or does all this get
put on the shelf? I mean, there's there's a lot
(23:49):
of wheels turning right now that depend on government interaction.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Absolutely well. Once again, we're talking eight hundred thousand people
that will be furloughed as of midnight tonight. Here's the
interesting stat And Dwight, we're gonna come back to you.
Here's an interesting stat. According to Mark Zandy, the chief
economist for Moody's, he estimates that for every day the
government is shut down, excuse me, every week that the
government is shut down, it will reduce GDP for that
(24:12):
quarter by one tenth of a percent. I remember, GDP
is the total output of the of the economy. Again,
a lot of us make our investment decisions how strong
the economy. We look at the GDP number. Now, Here's
here's something I want everybody to remember too. Going back
to twenty eighteen, Let's say the shutdown last a couple
of weeks, right, But what happens I remember going through
(24:32):
my mind is you you feel like you can't trust
the government data when it finally comes out because it
wasn't released when it was supposed to.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Right.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
So let's use the non farm peril of that as
an example. Again, they've told us if the government shuts down,
we're not going to get our non farm peril data
on Friday. So let's say next Friday the government opens up.
Are we going to get that Friday's non farm payroll number?
Are they just going to omit it completely? And then
we go two months with that non farm pail of dot.
You see what I'm saying, And you multiply that time
all of the different government reports that investors rely upon,
(25:03):
and you've got this massive cascading effect on there. Back
to your point to why where you're saying like, yeah, okay,
they got a skeleton crew and whatever government agency you
need to deal with. Uh, you know they're not going
to answer the phones. But when everybody does get back
to work, Now you and you know a million other
mortgage professionals are going to be going, I need tax
and scripts, I need this, I need that, And you
(25:24):
know the delays aren't going to stop the minute the
government opens back up. So it's you can have very
large cascading effect.
Speaker 5 (25:29):
And you can only imagine we were talking off air
that you know you as an individual can go get
your tax transcripts.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
I when you start crashing systems, if people start trying
to do that, you get enough people on there.
Speaker 5 (25:40):
But you know, I'm hoping, depending on how long it is,
there's some workarounds so people don't I think if you're
almost at the end of the line right now, you're
probably okay. It's going to be for those people that
are probably two three weeks.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Down the line, maybe.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
If some of the if some of these have been obtained.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
I mean, this is a question for both of you.
So Corey, I sign a contract to buy John Doe's house,
and I'm legally obligated. Sure we know all about extensions,
but let's say that closing was to happen on October
the fifth. Right, I've done everything I was supposed to do,
but Dwight can't fund my loan on October the fifth
(26:21):
because the government shut down? Am I still legally could?
Could the seller turn around and soon me because I
didn't fulfill my contractual obligations of closing on October the fifth?
Speaker 4 (26:31):
I guess like in that case, if you needed flood insurance,
couldn't get it, or you're getting a USDA loan and
we know those aren't going to fund. Technically, yeah, I
would be a default, but ultimately got to remember, if
somebody really pushed that, you're going to go in front
of a judge, and so yes, you know, if you're
making that argument in front of a judge, I don't
know what the answer would be. My guess is if
if they look at strictly the four corners of the
(26:53):
contract say, yeah, you default, but you have these extenuating
circumstances where we couldn't get the loan.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Here is there a clause in the in the real
estate the MLS real estate contract for you know, uh.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Government shutdowns?
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Yeah? Well, God.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
In a in a roundabout way, but is the government
shutting down an act of God?
Speaker 1 (27:13):
God? Right?
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I don't know. Is it an active it's an active.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
So think about that, or or you know, if that
seller is like man, I should have never sold it
to Sanchez for a million dollars. I you know, markets improved.
I wish I would have sold it for one point too. Hey,
guess what you didn't close October fifth, Sanchez, So guess
what feels done?
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Yeah, and there's no, there's no, certainly, there's certainly no.
There's certainly no provision in there for these kind of things.
So if you were a savvy seller that had regrets,
I'd hire a great attorney and and yeah, that that
seems like a reasonable argument.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yep, Yeah, something I just thought of. All Right, we'll
continue our discussion on the government shutdown just a few
hours away when we come back with Corey Dwight. Let's
wrap it up with Christen Snow right now Traffic Center. Hello, Christen,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Dog
seven to eighty k which let's get some contact information
when you need to reach these hard work and gentlemen. Dwight,
let's start with you, please.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, seven seven five two four zero two zero two two.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Mister Ridge six seven three six seven zer zero beautiful.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
All right, do I let's come back to you. What
else is on your list? As far as how the
government shut down will impact the risks will course, we
haven't touched on you.
Speaker 5 (28:27):
Yeah, now I think I think to your earlier point, John,
you're going to probably see some delays.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's it's probably inevitable.
Speaker 5 (28:33):
Especially if you go a few weeks, you're going to
see some delays in the processing gathering tax transcripts. They've
already said, you know, tax they'll run again as skeletal crew.
We need tax transcripts. So I guess that, you know,
just be patient. It's going to take to get through
all of this. It's going to take some time, and
(28:53):
you're going to be Unfortunately, you'll probably be delayed a
little bit. I think that's probably the moral of the story, right,
Corey's make sure that whatever you're closed day is that
you've got time to go beyond it if need be.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
Yeah, I mean, it's just something to be thinking about.
It doesn't really affect the buyer or seller directly as
far as the transaction, so it all kind of falls
in the lending realm. If you have a property that
has flood insurance or is in a flood zone, be
very mindful of this because there's going to be delayed
no matter what if you're in one of the outlying
(29:28):
areas that relies on USDA loans, that program is going
to be shut down until this thing's over. There's all
these things to think about. And then just all the
little nuances that we were talking about off there. You
have you know FAHA loans, reverse mortgages which are back
ended by FAHA. You know, those reconveyances when the loans
get paid off have to be filed. So who's doing
(29:48):
those kind of things? Just all these little things that
everybody takes for granted that a two week shutdown, nobody
will notice a two months shut down. It becomes an issue.
Speaker 5 (30:00):
From the two thousand and eight meltdown. That's where a
lot of these verifications came in.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
Remember people, people would.
Speaker 5 (30:06):
Have their taxes that they gave you and taxes they
had filed it there don't believe So there.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Yeah, there's more information, data points we have to get.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Out there, right right exactly So do I Okay, So
obviously a whole list government organizations, transcripts, all the things
that you've touched on here. But I think one thing
that we need to remind everybody about also is the
domino effect of real estate. So back to that analogy
throughout you know, potential lawsuit, et cetera. Corey, what about
(30:40):
you know, if I'm buying somebody's house, they probably are
also going to be buying another house, right, and you
get that whole domino effect, and and again one leads
to the other to the other. Bottom line, one delay
leads to other, another delay, and another delay, and so
on and so forth. So, Corey, what what is your
advice right now to other real ESTs state professionals, maybe
those that are new in the business, or to those
(31:02):
listening and saying, you know what how I mean to me?
Communication from the real estate professional you Dwight, et cetera
is paramount for those that are in limbo at this moment.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
At this moment, yeah, you just got to look at
so as an individual agent to me, you look at
your book of business, your buyers that are outlooking, and
specifically your listings, and make sure you understand if any
of this is going to affect those right and if
it doesn't, then there's not much you can do. But
if it does, you have to be proactive. Not that
you can force the government to open but communication, as
(31:33):
you mentioned, is key, so that everybody understands. Hey, we
can only do what we can do, and we're just
gonna have to wait this thing out.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
Hey, Corey, is the wire system federally or is it?
What is it?
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Yeah? It's fit.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
So there you got.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
You could have another delay in the wire.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
Yeah, no one brought that up. That's interesting. Well, well,
live and die by wires in our businesses.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
Yeah, yeah, that would be That would be a I
mean again, two weeks. Nobody's going to notice if this
thing extends past thirty days, and there's there's probably a
thousand things that happen in a transaction that we're not
even thinking of that will be affected by it.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
Dwight, here's another crazy one to go deep with you
on real quickly. We have about a minute left, and
that is okay, if I'm a government employee and I
just applied for a mortgage and you preapproved me based
upon my job. But now I think I remember this
back in twenty eighteen, I asked you this question last
government of shit down. If I'm fur load.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
John, I can't get a verification employment. I don't have
a current pay stub. I mean that's a problem.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
How long is your verification of employment good?
Speaker 5 (32:34):
For well, I mean you have to do an immediate one. Yeah,
I have to have a ten day verification employment.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
You have to be on the job.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Okay, you got it nine days ago. Could you still
lend to me if I'm out of work?
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Some some yeah maybe, but John, you're But I bet
they make us reverify.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Those I bet they do too. I bet they too.
Speaker 5 (32:56):
That's an interesting that's a There we go again to
Cory's point, two weeks is nothing.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
Thirty days plus star secover own problem.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Now, let's just hope it's not thirty five days. But
some some are happy and say, you know what, let
it shut down. Let it shut down and let them
find it out and get rid of all the fat
and stuff. So there's a million different opinions, but all
we want to do is make everybody aware of how
this can impact you, especially in the real estate world.
Corey Dwight, excellent job. As always. We will do to
gain tomorrow on the John Sanjay Show and give you
a government update by all means, as well as the
(33:24):
impact in the market. We're down a bit in the
futures right now. Take care, guys, take care, everybody. Goud
blass Dwight Millard n MLSID Number two four one two
five nine, a license mortgage loan officer with Highlands Residential
Mortgage Limited and Equal Housing Lender n mlsid Number one
three four eight seven one. The information shared on this
live broadcast is for general information purposes only and does
(33:44):
not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Listeners should consult directly
with a licensed mortgage professional for guidance tailored to their
specific situation. All loans are subject to credit approval and
program guidelines. Not all applicants will qualify. Loan terms and
availability may vary by state and are subject to change
without notice. Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited is licensed in multiple states.
(34:06):
For a full list of state licenses and disclosures, please
visit https slash slash www dot Highlandsmortgage dot com backslash
licenses backslash. The views expressed during this program are their
own and do not necessarily reflect those of Highlands Residential
Mortgage Limited.
Good Tuesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez
Show on News Talk seven eighty k which it's a
pole leasure to be with you on this pre government
shut down. Oh boy, but let's get we'll get to
that that that bad news here momentary. Let's go around
the horn first of all and make our introductions. Mister
Dwight Millard of Highlands, Morgans. How are you, sir?
Speaker 2 (00:23):
I'm doing fantastic, probably better tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (00:26):
Huh, well, really better tomorrow, which would be worse tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Hey, I'm trying to be optimistic.
Speaker 1 (00:32):
John.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Then you don't have to work.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
I'm going to say, yeah, to work. Everything's going to
be shut down.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
I don't think I'm very essential, so I'm good.
Speaker 1 (00:41):
You know, but all the people you deal with, they
get those loan approvals. True, I know. I was just
kind of hoping that. You know, how come the stock
market's not effective, the government shutdown? Right, give us a
day off. Come on, Corey individually, Hey do Bixie.
Speaker 3 (00:55):
I'm doing great. How are you good?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Very good? Thank you? Well, folks, we kind of give
you the t's as to exactly what we're gonna be
talking about. We're gonna recap of course, what happened in
the month and then the quarter, it's all over. We
were onto a brand new month starting tomorrow, we're on
to a brand new quarter, the final quarter of twenty
twenty five. Right. Our whole world of the stock market,
of course, is impacted by quarterly numbers. So well, you know, look, geez,
(01:21):
Corey and Dwight, you know, I know, Corey, you know this.
It's looking like SEC is really starting to lean towards
no more quarterly numbers right twice a year. That's that's
where it's I think it's head.
Speaker 4 (01:31):
So I've read that. I mean I've read it the
last couple of weeks when they're talking about it. But
now I think the SEC chairman right came out and said,
now we're gonna fast track this and we're gonna we're
gonna fast those What is that? What does that when
get into it later if you want, but what what
does that do to you?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Like? What does that do to you? Know?
Speaker 1 (01:47):
I can make an argument, Corey, of positives and negatives
to going to you know, semi annual quarterly or semi quarterly. See,
it's drilled into my brain after thirty five years, semi
annual earning reports versus quarterly the quarterly numbers. Of course,
obviously you're able to sometimes I go, you know, even
a quarter seems like too long. Now six months will
(02:08):
seem like an eternity. But from from a you know,
like the President's argument is, look at Japan, right, they
manage their businesses for ten twenty fifty years down the road. Well,
we're not Japan, So can we manage our businesses? Can
we make investment decisions on a semi annual basis? It's
going to be It's definitely going to be more difficult.
(02:29):
There's no doubt about it. I mean, I'll be honest
with you. Will I enjoy it, yes, because it is
a lot of work on our part, both for me
on the stock up dates on the show and for
you know, managing portfolios and stuff based upon quarterly numbers.
So if we could bump that out to say, you know,
twice a year, yeah, that could that could ease some
of the managerial burden there, and like I said, some
(02:50):
of the radio burden. But you know, if you boil
it down, no, I mean, like I said, six months
in Wall Street time is an eternity to every else,
So it will. It will come with its challenges and
then you know. Then the other thing, too, Corey, is
what do you do with the economic data? Right? So
if you get monthly data like we do on so
many important things, how do you factor that in as
(03:12):
far as your models and things when it comes to
how it's going to impact you know, XYZ Corporation. So
it will take some getting used to. But from everything
that I've read and heard, exactly as you said, the
chairman of the SEC Trump appointed the other day said
we're going to fast track this thing. I think it
makes perfect sense. So I think it's going to help.
Speaker 4 (03:30):
And it'll be interesting to see if it increases volatility
because everybody's going to be guessing, or if it decreases
volatility because nobody will make a.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Decision exactly six months. Yeah, and we don't know, We
don't know.
Speaker 2 (03:41):
Could you imagine the market they'll leading up to that day?
Speaker 1 (03:45):
Yeah, you're right, right, Yeah, that's that's yeah, you're absolutely right.
Well a lot of people don't know this, but it
was we go all the way back to nineteen seventy
is when they started quarterly numbers. I don't know what
they did before that. If it was semi annual or annually,
but nineteen seventy is when the quarterly numbers started. So yeah,
it's gonna be interesting. But hey, you know what, let's
get it. Let's dip our feet into it and kind
of see what it's like to you know, make our
(04:06):
economic and financial decisions, uh, without any government data or
quarterly numbers, because it looks like, folks, we're gonna have
a government shut down.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
Yeah, we'll find out.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
We're gonna find out. We're gonna dip our toes into
this right now here, you know, in the in the
next twenty four hours or show. And so this is
exactly what we're going to be focusing on after the
stock market update, and that is you know, Corey and
Dwight's world, many of you may not realize this, and
especially on the on Dwight side of things, is so
intertwined with the government. I mean, Dwight just you know again,
(04:38):
you're gonna go through so many different areas that are
going to impact those that are out there that are
you know, in the in the mortgage pipeline or boy,
they were ready to you know, pull the trigger tomorrow
or in the next couple of days. Forget about it, right,
and you're going to tell us about that. But you
know there's one thing that comes to mind, uh tax transcripts, right.
I mean i RS is going to be shut down
real quickly, Dwight, and then we're gonna start plowing into
(04:59):
this because it's going to be a very interesting topic.
You were on the phone with somebody today, and tell
tell the audience what I told you.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Well, I needed a piece of paper of course from
SBA so Small Business Administration on a you know, a
reconsideration of payment plan. But anyhow, I got it on
the phone. I said, listen, is there any chance I'm
going to get this today? Because if I don't get
it today, I assume you won't be here tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (05:21):
If there's a shiit that goes. She goes, absolutely not,
we are not also be here. And I'm like, oh no,
and you know, of course I didn't get the piece
of paper.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
So so now okay, so real quickly explain what happens
to your client now you have to do.
Speaker 5 (05:34):
Well, yeah, I'm hoping that a cert that I did,
you know, a lender certification, will allow me to move forward.
Speaker 2 (05:43):
But this gets real complicated. It becomes a real mess.
Speaker 5 (05:46):
Because they don't really give you the provision to do
follow up conditions. John, So, I mean, you're not going
to be able to put transcripts in after you fund
the loan and it's been sold.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
So everything's got to be do upfront.
Speaker 5 (05:59):
And you know, I think I might be able to
get out of this one, but I just didn't like,
you know, and she kind of t he he you know,
we're not gonna be here.
Speaker 1 (06:06):
It's like, okay, well, I mean in defense of her,
you know, well you got booked. Well, they're gonna get paid, right,
They're gonna be They're gonna be furloughed. The latest indication
from CNBC at least is seven hundred and fifty thousand
federal workers according to the to the CBO, the UH
(06:28):
seven hundred and fifty thousand federal workers will be furloughed.
But we got to go a step further, guys. As
we discussed last week, you know, on this topic, and
that is Trump made it very clear that, uh, you
know what, we did not talk about it because Trump
this made the comments yesterday. Trump made it very clear
that and I'm gonna paraphrase, he's going to use this
as a reason. Quote or excuse in real terms, to
(06:52):
permanently fire. Some are saying hundreds of thousands of government
workers that that what he feels are not needed. Almost
some of are like what we went through a he's
going to use this government shut down as a reason
to permanently get rid of that. So imagine being a
government work and you're going, oh, yeah, meah, I'm gonna
have a spot day tomorrow, I'm gonna get paid, and
you come back and go your position has been permanently
you know, eliminated, obviously no fault of your own. But
(07:14):
but there's a lot of ramifications this. This is one
analyst said today, this is different this time around. Right,
stock market usually does okay when the government shut down
and no real major market reaction and you know, so
on and so forth, actually slightly rises. But this analyst
brought up a good point. He's not the only one
that said that it's this time could be different because
we've got a lot of things going on. We have
(07:35):
the critical one. I mean, Corey, you and I talk
about this one all the time. The non farm payroll numbers, right,
that's coming out Friday or it was. We don't have that. Now,
imagine if you. You know, again, if you're an economist
or anybody that needs that data to make an informed
business decision, you're not going to have it, you know, Corey,
excuse my reach here, let's be on camera. But you
know tomorrow we have We've got ADP, so we'll get that,
(07:58):
right Well, I always get that on Wednesday before the
non farm parable numbers. But we've got construction spinning, and
we have another big one, the ISM Manufacturing Report, that
is very important for us to try to figure out
what's going on in the industrial sector. I gotta get that.
So probably the one thing we'll get tomorrow. Least way
to look right now is ADP. That's something changes between
now and nine pm R time.
Speaker 4 (08:16):
So no, and then you know, I agree with you,
and I probably watched that same analyst that Trump is
not the kind of person that's going to give in.
So if you're going to pick a fight with them,
you better be ready to right to set it out andation.
The longer this thing goes, then you get into the
FED meeting, which granted is twenty eight days away, twenty
nine days away, but.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
You can try got that long.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
The longer you get there, I don't even know if
they're essential, right, can they even meet? So you get
into all these different things. I haven't read a lot
about maybe you know or don't know. I can look
it up at the break, but I've heard him talk
about that, Hey, if this happens, I'm going to use
an excuse to fire. What what gives the excuse to
fire because of the shut down? What does the shutdown
do that allow us?
Speaker 3 (08:56):
The fire?
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Lation is?
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Okay?
Speaker 1 (08:57):
Yeah, I don't know what. I've tried to think about
that and I've not been able to find anything about it.
Who knows what's going through his mind? You know how
how he's rationalizing it in his in his mind the
only thing that I saw today, and I don't have
it in front of me. So I'm gonna again kind
of paraphrase it is he's gonna get, you know, closed down.
(09:19):
I'm just gonna pick a hypothetical number, let's say two
hundred thousand jobs. And the key on the sentence was
that he feels are not needed. So back to your point,
how do you define that right? How is he able
to be the one that says that or not needed? Well,
I don't think we can argue it again. Look what
they did in Doge. I mean, all of a sudden,
here goes you know, whole hundreds of thousands of jobs gone,
(09:40):
and you know, some of those have been brought back,
but a lot of them have it. So he's got
the power to do it. You know, he wields the pin.
He wields the pin. So we're going to get into this, folks,
because again it's it can impact all of our lives
unless again something changes here, you know, on our time
in the next you know, roughly you know, five hours
and fifteen minutes. But let me kind of start with
what happened in the market today. So we had a
(10:03):
pretty volatile session. But again all we care about is
where we finished at one o'clock today, and it turned
out to be, you know, fairly decent day after all.
Matter of fact, a record closed for the Dow. We
finished up eighty two points after being down well over
one hundred for most of the session. We closed that
forty six thousand and three ninety seven. And again just
to show my age, guys, when I got in this business,
(10:24):
weird about twenty two hundred on the dow, twenty two hundred.
There we are forty six thousand, three ninety seven. Now's
that cup seven sixty seven point three eight percent excuse me,
sixty nine point three zero percent gain in the SMP
rows twenty seven points er point four to one percent, Dwight.
Let's since we got a lot of things to talk about,
let's let's let's delve over to you here in a moment,
oil prices pulled back a bucket eleven sixty two to
(10:46):
thirty seven a barrel. Another strong day for gold with
the nervousness of the government. Eighteen dollars and twenty cent
rise three thousand and eight seventy three forty and my friend,
one basis point increase on the tenure. This is I
guess the bright side, which is the bond market didn't panic.
We closed at four or fifth team. And here's the
staff for you, Dwight. We've actually finished down eight basis
points on the ten year treasury in the month of September,
so you know, through the FED cut and everything, they
(11:08):
eat out that. But I bet you can't say that
on the mortgage side.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
No, And I bet we were somewhere around twenty eight
until we had those last couple of weeks right or
last week or so, you know, We're in a nice
I guess comfort zone right now. Six point three seven
on the thirty year fixed Cordy is more Newsdaily fifteen one,
the one you like, John is five point eight nine
into the government's six point zero five and six point
zero seven. It'll be interesting to see if those change,
(11:36):
you know, or if there's just you know, with you know,
if we go into a government shutdown, if rates have
some sort of impact on it. But I guess the
rates really don't. It's the investors right that have, yes,
the final say on it. But you know, John, real quick,
I was watching or a program and it was saying
that the FAA will be around, but all these new
trainees they keep, you know, because they're so understaff. Those
(11:59):
go away for right now, all the training and everything,
So all you will have is just the ones that
are overworked right now.
Speaker 1 (12:04):
So that are overworked right now. Amazing. All right, Well,
we've got a lot of things to talk about about
how your money's going to be impacted by a government shutdown.
But first let's turn it over to christin snow. Let's
say our afternoons being impacted on the highways, and she
will let us know in the right now traffic center.
Hello Christen, Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on
News Talk seven eighty k wait with Corey as a
vigrility to whipe'm a art of Highlands mortgage. All right,
(12:25):
once again, we finished with a gain of eighty two
on the Dow to a record close a forty six
three ninety seven. Now it's like Cup sixty nine and
the S and P. I should have mentioned that was
a record finish, also up twenty seven points to close
at six thousand and six eighty eight. Corey, I was
digging up during the break. You know again the rationale
as to why the president wants to permanently eliminate these jobs,
(12:46):
and he said the following. That's according to Bloomberg. He said,
President Trump said, quote, a lot of good could stem
from a government shut down, threatening to aus federal workers
and eliminate programs that are favored by Democrats. If Congress
doesn't meet the midnight deadline tonight, quote, we can get
rid of a lot of things that we didn't want,
and they'd be democratic things. He told reporters in the
Oval Office today, they just don't learn, so we have
(13:07):
no choice. I have to do that for the country,
so they.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
Yeah, I'm just curious if it's a like, is it
because of the shutdown that allows it or could he
do it today if he wanted to, even without the shutdown.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
Like, I think he'd probably do it today. I mean, okay,
the reason I say that is because they did it
in Doze.
Speaker 4 (13:24):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's what I was just reading a
different article too that said this time, I think Trump
said there'll be any of the furloughed employees will be
allowed to access their government emails so they can get
their layoff notices.
Speaker 3 (13:40):
It's so funny. He just doesn't mince words. There you go,
My goodness.
Speaker 1 (13:46):
Yeah, all right, well there we go on that one.
All right, We're gonna get to our topic here in
a moment, how the government shut down is going to
impact even tomorrow, right if I mean again, we're gonna
assume that nothing's gonna happen here in the next few hours.
We're gonna assume this is to happen. But you know, guys,
there's you sit back and you and you kind of
(14:08):
again we take this with a with a you know,
kind of a grain of salt at this point and
go okay, well all right, so a little bit of
a government shutdown, but we really need to be thinking
about all of the repercussions that can happen from this,
and of course, whether it be in Tuesday, there's we've
got to focus on the real estate side of things.
So the boys are really put together some nice information
(14:29):
to to start really, you know, educating us on some
of the impacts in the real estate world. Do I
gave that story at the beginning of the show, but
do I. I'm going to start with you as the
as the mortgage professional. Like I said, you deal with
tax transcripts just as one issue, but let's kind of
get at least one or two points that that's going
to impact your business and therefore your borrowers. Uh, if
(14:51):
and when this government shut down happens, how are things
going to work?
Speaker 2 (14:54):
Well?
Speaker 5 (14:54):
John, the most the first and most obvious one is
you only get can get flood certification from one entity,
and that's the government. If you can't get a flood certification,
if you cannot get flood insurance, there's no way you're
gonna be able to close on that home. So if
you're getting close to being a title and that hasn't
been done, I mean that's gonna be a real problem.
(15:15):
So I mean, anybody that's in a flood zone, I
don't know how you get very proactive right now if
it's you know, coming tomorrow. But uh, that's a that's
a clear one. The other one that are going to
be transcripts, I mean the again from previous shutdowns. John,
These aren't things you can go back later and put
in the files. So tax transcripts, anything you need cavers,
(15:37):
you know, we have to run those. On government loans,
those are well, it stands for something, but those are
in depth. It brings up like any default on federal debt,
like student loans, SBA, those type of things. We have
to if you need to clear it. If you need
something that's gonna be there's not gonna be anybody there
to do it. So I mean most of your challenges
(15:59):
will come in the government arena. But don't forget Fanny
and Freddie fall into that as well.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
So it's.
Speaker 1 (16:07):
I want to just read this real quick to I
don't like to read things, but I think this is
very important for the audience. So in your notes, you
have under the Department of Housing and Urban Development, This
includes Faha and Jenny mays. As with previous shutdowns, operations
of the Department of Housing and Urban Development HUT, including
the Federal Housing and Administration FAHA and GENNY may would
be reduced considerably, which may impede the processing and closing
(16:29):
and mortgage loans. The FHA Office of Single Family Housing
will continue to endorse new loans with the exception of
home equity conversion mortgages, Title one loans and loan endorsements
that require assessment by the FJL Office of Multi Family
Housing will conduct closings and endorsements for projects with firm
commitments firm approval letters issued prior to the shutdown. They
will also process amendments to commitments. Other requests on only
(16:51):
be handled on an emergency basis and for the imminent
threat to the safety of residence for the or to
the protection of the HUT insured or assistant family projects.
Lenders will continue to have access to HUD systems such
as FAHA Connection as it will remain operational. However, actions
that require head personnel to your point to respond will
be delayed or suspended. The same applies to lenders lenders
(17:13):
inquiries submitted to FAHA Resource Center, which will remain open
to answer general questions or responses require escalation will be
delayed delayed. FAHA will continue to pay partial claims in
the event of a shutdown. Jenny May is largely unaffected
by the shutdown as that has a two year NBS
guarantee commitment authority that a lapse in appropriations will trigger
the approval of L and D. That gets pretty in
(17:34):
depth there. So either shutdown skeleton crew, which we know,
I mean, yeah, good luck trying to get through it,
probably right, do right, Yeah.
Speaker 5 (17:44):
If you just can't get it through the system, if
you and you've got to rely on a source, a
person or something. Yeah, it's hard to prove emergency. So
when you talked about the heck em, that's the reverse mortgages.
So those go away for now. Yeah, So it's uh, yeah,
it'll be interesting because and the longer it goes, the
(18:06):
more difficult it becomes. Right because now you've got two
people where you had enough it's two hundred, You've got
two people, and you know, you go a month.
Speaker 2 (18:14):
I mean, it's just impossible.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
Like I said, I think the biggest key or takeaway
is it's so hard for lenders to band aid put
a band aid over it. Hope it goes out there
and you can follow up later with that, right, So,
do I give us some exceptions if it goes along?
Speaker 4 (18:31):
On the flood I understand the NFIP of the flood
insurance program, But do you have to get a clear
floodsirt on every property?
Speaker 2 (18:39):
No?
Speaker 5 (18:39):
No, just anything that's well you have to get a
flood shirt. Yeah, you have to get a flood certification.
But the flood insurance comes directly from.
Speaker 3 (18:48):
Correct, I know that?
Speaker 4 (18:49):
But does does the flood surf come from NFIP also,
or that comes from a different source.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
I think that comes from a different source.
Speaker 3 (18:56):
Okay, that's what I.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
So we I mean, yeah, so we have to get
a flood certification. See John, on every loan we did?
Speaker 1 (19:02):
Right? Yeah? All right, all right? When we come back
one who I'm just reading the notes here touch on
the Social Security Administration because that's a really important one,
not only for those you know, looking in the mortgage
side and the real estate side, but everything else. So
give you the update of what's what's going on there.
Sort over to Jack Saban He's got news traffic on weather. Hello, Jack,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show. On his top
(19:24):
seven eighty k wait to with the Corey edge of duality.
Dwight Millard of Highland's mortgage once again we finished at
a record close on the DOW and the S and
P five hundred now with eighty two Naza Crow sixty
nine and the smp Hire by twenty seven. All right,
we're discussing how the government shut down could affect the
real estate market, affect your lives, so and so forth.
So Dwight, I want to come back to the Social
Security Administration because I think there's a lot of confusion there.
(19:46):
So I'm going to take my part of it, and
then you're going to talk about the real estate side
of it. So they are saying at this point that
social Security checks and Medicare checks will continue. What's the
negative of how it's going to impact the mortgage worldwife, Well.
Speaker 5 (19:59):
We you know, we have to do so many verifications now,
you know, run up against social Security numbers, addresses, names, everything,
and this is going to put some strain on being
able if you have to get if you have to
go out to a third party and get some information,
it's just going to be almost impossible to get it.
(20:20):
And again, the longer we go and I'm just going
back to when I kind of remember if you you know,
when was the last one six years ago?
Speaker 2 (20:27):
Seven years ago?
Speaker 1 (20:28):
Yeah, it was under under the Trump administration.
Speaker 5 (20:31):
Yeah, and you know, it was just difficult to get
anybody on the phone if you needed some help.
Speaker 2 (20:37):
And so I think that's what is going to happen here.
You know, if you need anything.
Speaker 5 (20:41):
From the Social Security Administration, they're going to be I
think at a skeletal staff, even though they're still going
to be there.
Speaker 1 (20:46):
So eighteenth lasted thirty five days.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
That takes us through the FED meeting if we do it.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
Again, and what probably two non firm payable numbers?
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Yeah, so then could could he claim emergency powers and
just lower the interest rates to half a percent because
the government shut down?
Speaker 1 (21:09):
Mister edge Corey is going going deep? Yeah, yeah, what
do he sense of Corey? Tell me?
Speaker 4 (21:19):
No, No, I'm just kidding. I mean, who knows they might.
It wouldn't surprise me if they pass a bill tonight
and this is all or not. I guess it would
surprise me a little bit. But I do think you know,
if I listened to them all day to day, I'm
sure you did to like, oh, the market doesn't care.
Speaker 3 (21:33):
The market doesn't care.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
We've been through this so many times, but I guess
you have been through it with Trump thirty five days
ago or a few years ago for thirty five days.
But I was listening to the reporter talked about that one,
and they said the only reason they came to terms
is because the budget. There was something happening on the
thirty six day where they had to open the government,
and they said, with this one, there is no clear
(21:54):
in the there's nothing in the future that's going to
force him to open it. And if you want to
play a game of I don't think Donald Trump's the
guy you want to play against because he just doesn't care.
Speaker 3 (22:04):
Not that he doesn't care, but you know what I mean.
Speaker 4 (22:06):
He he's got a longer staying power than Chuck Schumer.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
So yes, we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2 (22:12):
Yeah, well, it feels like he's got a plan.
Speaker 1 (22:15):
And yeah, that's what I was going to say to it.
You took the words out of my mouth. It feels
like to me, there's something more to this than Okay,
the government can't get its budget agreed between the Democrats
and the Republicans. I agree, there's something deeper. Maybe to
your point, Cory is crazy. As much as we laughed,
that's a very valid point. Maybe there's something that we
(22:35):
don't know. I mean, none of us know the intricacies
of how the government works. But yeah, let's go down
that path. Yeah, so you're gonna miss two non firm
perile numbers. We know he doesn't like the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. He fired the head of it, brought in
his own person. The numbers weren't good in the first
month that that new person was at the job. Remember
when we get twenty two thousand new jobs. So maybe
this one on this Friday was going to be terrible.
(22:57):
You know, that could fuel one of the reasons to continue,
uh and to make this uh uh, this government shut
down happen. And I mean, Corey, that's going deep. But
begin brother, I gotta I gotta give you credit on that.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
And that's yeah, you know, and we'll see what happens.
Speaker 1 (23:13):
I mean, do those could I guess the question is
could the FED meet if there's a government shut down?
I wouldn't think so, yeah, you know, I don't know,
someone you have to look into. But if they don't meet,
But then what happens.
Speaker 4 (23:28):
Yeah, and think about all the I mean, it'll be
interesting to see this play he's got. There's so many
there's so many court cases happening right now. Go even
if you just look at what's happening with the FED
and they're waiting on decisions. And for those court cases
you have, you have government attorneys that are arguing. So
do they still go argue or does all this get
put on the shelf? I mean, there's there's a lot
(23:49):
of wheels turning right now that depend on government interaction.
Speaker 1 (23:52):
Absolutely well. Once again, we're talking eight hundred thousand people
that will be furloughed as of midnight tonight. Here's the
interesting stat And Dwight, we're gonna come back to you.
Here's an interesting stat. According to Mark Zandy, the chief
economist for Moody's, he estimates that for every day the
government is shut down, excuse me, every week that the
government is shut down, it will reduce GDP for that
(24:12):
quarter by one tenth of a percent. I remember, GDP
is the total output of the of the economy. Again,
a lot of us make our investment decisions how strong
the economy. We look at the GDP number. Now, Here's
here's something I want everybody to remember too. Going back
to twenty eighteen, Let's say the shutdown last a couple
of weeks, right, But what happens I remember going through
(24:32):
my mind is you you feel like you can't trust
the government data when it finally comes out because it
wasn't released when it was supposed to.
Speaker 3 (24:40):
Right.
Speaker 1 (24:40):
So let's use the non farm peril of that as
an example. Again, they've told us if the government shuts down,
we're not going to get our non farm peril data
on Friday. So let's say next Friday the government opens up.
Are we going to get that Friday's non farm payroll number?
Are they just going to omit it completely? And then
we go two months with that non farm pail of dot.
You see what I'm saying, And you multiply that time
all of the different government reports that investors rely upon,
(25:03):
and you've got this massive cascading effect on there. Back
to your point to why where you're saying like, yeah, okay,
they got a skeleton crew and whatever government agency you
need to deal with. Uh, you know they're not going
to answer the phones. But when everybody does get back
to work, Now you and you know a million other
mortgage professionals are going to be going, I need tax
and scripts, I need this, I need that, And you
(25:24):
know the delays aren't going to stop the minute the
government opens back up. So it's you can have very
large cascading effect.
Speaker 5 (25:29):
And you can only imagine we were talking off air
that you know you as an individual can go get
your tax transcripts.
Speaker 2 (25:36):
I when you start crashing systems, if people start trying
to do that, you get enough people on there.
Speaker 5 (25:40):
But you know, I'm hoping, depending on how long it is,
there's some workarounds so people don't I think if you're
almost at the end of the line right now, you're
probably okay. It's going to be for those people that
are probably two three weeks.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
Down the line, maybe.
Speaker 2 (25:56):
If some of the if some of these have been obtained.
Speaker 1 (26:00):
I mean, this is a question for both of you.
So Corey, I sign a contract to buy John Doe's house,
and I'm legally obligated. Sure we know all about extensions,
but let's say that closing was to happen on October
the fifth. Right, I've done everything I was supposed to do,
but Dwight can't fund my loan on October the fifth
(26:21):
because the government shut down? Am I still legally could?
Could the seller turn around and soon me because I
didn't fulfill my contractual obligations of closing on October the fifth?
Speaker 4 (26:31):
I guess like in that case, if you needed flood insurance,
couldn't get it, or you're getting a USDA loan and
we know those aren't going to fund. Technically, yeah, I
would be a default, but ultimately got to remember, if
somebody really pushed that, you're going to go in front
of a judge, and so yes, you know, if you're
making that argument in front of a judge, I don't
know what the answer would be. My guess is if
if they look at strictly the four corners of the
(26:53):
contract say, yeah, you default, but you have these extenuating
circumstances where we couldn't get the loan.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
Here is there a clause in the in the real
estate the MLS real estate contract for you know, uh.
Speaker 3 (27:04):
Government shutdowns?
Speaker 1 (27:05):
Yeah? Well, God.
Speaker 4 (27:09):
In a in a roundabout way, but is the government
shutting down an act of God?
Speaker 1 (27:13):
God? Right?
Speaker 3 (27:14):
I don't know. Is it an active it's an active.
Speaker 1 (27:18):
So think about that, or or you know, if that
seller is like man, I should have never sold it
to Sanchez for a million dollars. I you know, markets improved.
I wish I would have sold it for one point too. Hey,
guess what you didn't close October fifth, Sanchez, So guess
what feels done?
Speaker 4 (27:32):
Yeah, and there's no, there's no, certainly, there's certainly no.
There's certainly no provision in there for these kind of things.
So if you were a savvy seller that had regrets,
I'd hire a great attorney and and yeah, that that
seems like a reasonable argument.
Speaker 1 (27:49):
Yep, Yeah, something I just thought of. All Right, we'll
continue our discussion on the government shutdown just a few
hours away when we come back with Corey Dwight. Let's
wrap it up with Christen Snow right now Traffic Center. Hello, Christen,
welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Dog
seven to eighty k which let's get some contact information
when you need to reach these hard work and gentlemen. Dwight,
let's start with you, please.
Speaker 2 (28:07):
Yeah, seven seven five two four zero two zero two two.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Mister Ridge six seven three six seven zer zero beautiful.
Speaker 1 (28:16):
All right, do I let's come back to you. What
else is on your list? As far as how the
government shut down will impact the risks will course, we
haven't touched on you.
Speaker 5 (28:27):
Yeah, now I think I think to your earlier point, John,
you're going to probably see some delays.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
It's it's probably inevitable.
Speaker 5 (28:33):
Especially if you go a few weeks, you're going to
see some delays in the processing gathering tax transcripts. They've
already said, you know, tax they'll run again as skeletal crew.
We need tax transcripts. So I guess that, you know,
just be patient. It's going to take to get through
all of this. It's going to take some time, and
(28:53):
you're going to be Unfortunately, you'll probably be delayed a
little bit. I think that's probably the moral of the story, right,
Corey's make sure that whatever you're closed day is that
you've got time to go beyond it if need be.
Speaker 4 (29:08):
Yeah, I mean, it's just something to be thinking about.
It doesn't really affect the buyer or seller directly as
far as the transaction, so it all kind of falls
in the lending realm. If you have a property that
has flood insurance or is in a flood zone, be
very mindful of this because there's going to be delayed
no matter what if you're in one of the outlying
(29:28):
areas that relies on USDA loans, that program is going
to be shut down until this thing's over. There's all
these things to think about. And then just all the
little nuances that we were talking about off there. You
have you know FAHA loans, reverse mortgages which are back
ended by FAHA. You know, those reconveyances when the loans
get paid off have to be filed. So who's doing
(29:48):
those kind of things? Just all these little things that
everybody takes for granted that a two week shutdown, nobody
will notice a two months shut down. It becomes an issue.
Speaker 5 (30:00):
From the two thousand and eight meltdown. That's where a
lot of these verifications came in.
Speaker 2 (30:04):
Remember people, people would.
Speaker 5 (30:06):
Have their taxes that they gave you and taxes they
had filed it there don't believe So there.
Speaker 2 (30:11):
Yeah, there's more information, data points we have to get.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Out there, right right exactly So do I Okay, So
obviously a whole list government organizations, transcripts, all the things
that you've touched on here. But I think one thing
that we need to remind everybody about also is the
domino effect of real estate. So back to that analogy
throughout you know, potential lawsuit, et cetera. Corey, what about
(30:40):
you know, if I'm buying somebody's house, they probably are
also going to be buying another house, right, and you
get that whole domino effect, and and again one leads
to the other to the other. Bottom line, one delay
leads to other, another delay, and another delay, and so
on and so forth. So, Corey, what what is your
advice right now to other real ESTs state professionals, maybe
those that are new in the business, or to those
(31:02):
listening and saying, you know what how I mean to me?
Communication from the real estate professional you Dwight, et cetera
is paramount for those that are in limbo at this moment.
Speaker 4 (31:13):
At this moment, yeah, you just got to look at
so as an individual agent to me, you look at
your book of business, your buyers that are outlooking, and
specifically your listings, and make sure you understand if any
of this is going to affect those right and if
it doesn't, then there's not much you can do. But
if it does, you have to be proactive. Not that
you can force the government to open but communication, as
(31:33):
you mentioned, is key, so that everybody understands. Hey, we
can only do what we can do, and we're just
gonna have to wait this thing out.
Speaker 2 (31:41):
Hey, Corey, is the wire system federally or is it?
What is it?
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Yeah? It's fit.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
So there you got.
Speaker 2 (31:48):
You could have another delay in the wire.
Speaker 1 (31:51):
Yeah, no one brought that up. That's interesting. Well, well,
live and die by wires in our businesses.
Speaker 4 (31:55):
Yeah, yeah, that would be That would be a I
mean again, two weeks. Nobody's going to notice if this
thing extends past thirty days, and there's there's probably a
thousand things that happen in a transaction that we're not
even thinking of that will be affected by it.
Speaker 1 (32:10):
Dwight, here's another crazy one to go deep with you
on real quickly. We have about a minute left, and
that is okay, if I'm a government employee and I
just applied for a mortgage and you preapproved me based
upon my job. But now I think I remember this
back in twenty eighteen, I asked you this question last
government of shit down. If I'm fur load.
Speaker 5 (32:28):
John, I can't get a verification employment. I don't have
a current pay stub. I mean that's a problem.
Speaker 1 (32:33):
How long is your verification of employment good?
Speaker 5 (32:34):
For well, I mean you have to do an immediate one. Yeah,
I have to have a ten day verification employment.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
You have to be on the job.
Speaker 1 (32:41):
Okay, you got it nine days ago. Could you still
lend to me if I'm out of work?
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Yeah?
Speaker 5 (32:50):
Some some yeah maybe, but John, you're But I bet
they make us reverify.
Speaker 1 (32:54):
Those I bet they do too. I bet they too.
Speaker 5 (32:56):
That's an interesting that's a There we go again to
Cory's point, two weeks is nothing.
Speaker 2 (33:01):
Thirty days plus star secover own problem.
Speaker 1 (33:03):
Now, let's just hope it's not thirty five days. But
some some are happy and say, you know what, let
it shut down. Let it shut down and let them
find it out and get rid of all the fat
and stuff. So there's a million different opinions, but all
we want to do is make everybody aware of how
this can impact you, especially in the real estate world.
Corey Dwight, excellent job. As always. We will do to
gain tomorrow on the John Sanjay Show and give you
a government update by all means, as well as the
(33:24):
impact in the market. We're down a bit in the
futures right now. Take care, guys, take care, everybody. Goud
blass Dwight Millard n MLSID Number two four one two
five nine, a license mortgage loan officer with Highlands Residential
Mortgage Limited and Equal Housing Lender n mlsid Number one
three four eight seven one. The information shared on this
live broadcast is for general information purposes only and does
(33:44):
not constitute financial or mortgage advice. Listeners should consult directly
with a licensed mortgage professional for guidance tailored to their
specific situation. All loans are subject to credit approval and
program guidelines. Not all applicants will qualify. Loan terms and
availability may vary by state and are subject to change
without notice. Highlands Residential Mortgage Limited is licensed in multiple states.
(34:06):
For a full list of state licenses and disclosures, please
visit https slash slash www dot Highlandsmortgage dot com backslash
licenses backslash. The views expressed during this program are their
own and do not necessarily reflect those of Highlands Residential
Mortgage Limited.
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