August 14, 2025 • 12 mins
Aug. 14, 2025- A new Siena Research Institute survey of New Yorkers explored the possibility of changing New York's redistricting process, responding to federal spending cuts, and a gubernatorial matchup between Gov. Kathy Hochul and Rep. Elise Stefanik. We break down the results with Siena pollster Steve Greenberg.
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Speaker 1 (00:04):
This is WCNYS the Capitol press Room, and we're unpacking
a new survey of New York voters from the Siena
Research Institute and to make sense of the numbers. We're
joined by Sienna Polster Steve Greenberg. Thanks making the time, Steve,
happy to be here. David Well, I want to start
with an issue that's likely going to be part of
Albany's speculation from now until the next state budget is
(00:25):
adopted sometime in the spring of twenty twenty six, which
is how state policymakers should respond to the cuts in
federal aid to New York as a result of the
Big Beautiful Bill adopted in July and Washington DC. How
do New Yorkers think this shortfall should be addressed by
the state.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Well, we gave voters two choices.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
We said, if the Feds cut money and the state
needs to make that up, should the state do so
more by raising taxes or more by reducing services and
reducing services wins, but not overwhelmingly. Thirty six percent of
New Yorkers say the way the legislature and governor should
(01:09):
close the gap is more by reducing services. Twenty four
percent set increasing taxes and We tried to avoid getting
a lot of people in the middle by saying which
one would do it more, but still we had sixteen
percent of people who said a little bit of this,
a little bit of that.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Do you think if you ask to follow up to
this question saying we're going to raise taxes on the
wealthy or raise taxes on all New Yorkers, do you
think that nuance might provide some different results to this
type of question or do you think those numbers twenty
four percent supporting raising state taxes would remain pretty consistent.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
No, I think that could impact it, certainly. People are
much more likely to support tax increases that don't affect
them but affect somebody else.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
But there's no serious proposal out there yet.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
We'll certainly take a closer look at it when the
governor proposes her budget, when the legislative leaders and legislators
start talking about, you know, their proposed solutions for the
budget next year. But yeah, that certainly could impact it.
And what we see, not surprisingly, is a large partisan divide,
(02:26):
so a plurality of Democrats, but only a narrow plurality.
Thirty five to twenty five percent say raise taxes, but
fifty one percent of Republicans and looking more like Republicans
than Democrats on this question, forty four percent of independent
voters say reduce services, don't raise taxes.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Well, turning to another issue that's part of the dialogue
here in Planet Albany, that's the debate over potentially updating
the state constitution to a low New York policymakers to
redraw congressional districts mid decade instead of every ten years
following the adoption of the census. This amendment would be
(03:11):
triggered if another state was to draw its lines mid decade.
Kind Of a very insular topic that not everyone cares about.
But what was the sentiment from voters.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Sort of a little bit of this, A little bit
of that. We asked voters if they would support or
oppose such an amendment, and we had included the caveat
that another state had already done so. And what we
find is thirty five percent of New York voters say
they support such an amendment. A nearly equal thirty four
(03:45):
percent oppose such an amendment. We see the partisan divide.
Democrats support it by a forty five to twenty nine
percent margin, Republicans oppose it.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Forty two to twenty four percent.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Independence oppose by a slightly smaller margin thirty five to
twenty six percent. Gotta tell you, I'm a little surprised
on this one, David, that the partisan divide isn't larger
than it is, that Republicans weren't overwhelmingly know and Democrats
weren't overwhelmingly Yes, But part of it may be the
fact that a lot of these Democrats have been talking
(04:22):
throughout their career, certainly over the last several years about,
you know, the importance of eliminating jerry mandering and doing
reapportionment the right way quote unquote. So maybe there are
Democrats who, while they may politically want it, feel like
it's just the wrong thing to do, even if another
state does it.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Yeah, I think the lack of a demonstrable partisan divide
is probably a fact of people not really knowing much
about this issue, not necessarily knowing is this something that
benefits Democrats? Is this something that benefits Republicans? Who's pushing it?
Because the way the question is framed, it's not like
New York Democrats are looking to do this, which is
(05:04):
the case here. So I think if you had some
follow up questions. I think there might be a more
stark divide, don't you.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's potential.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Again, as this issue proceeds, we wanted to get a
baseline on it. And if this issue remains a live
issue during the twenty twenty sixth session, and I imagine
it will, we'll certainly be looking more at this issue
and some of the nuance in there.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Well.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Before we move on, let me reintroduce you for listeners
just joining us. We're speaking with Sienna Polster Steve Greenberg,
and we're going over a new survey of voters that
was conducted from August fourth to August seventh, and sticking
with the idea of issues that are likely going to evolve,
(05:50):
you took the temperature of registered voters about a potential
matchup for governor between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochel and Republican
congressom at least Stephanic, who has yet to declare but
is definitely playing footsie with this idea. You found that
Hokel leads this matchup forty five percent to thirty one percent,
with twenty percent saying don't know or refusing to answer.
(06:15):
I want to start with Stephanic, is there anything about
these numbers in terms of this head to head matchup,
or maybe statewide favorability numbers that you think are particularly
good for her or particularly bad for her, or this
far out from a general election, maybe it's too soon
to read too much into any of these numbers.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Well, as you and I have talked about many times,
poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. So
here we are in early August twenty twenty five talking
about an election that you know, the primaries for such
an election are ten months away. The actual election itself
is fifteen months away. A million things are going to
happen between now and then that will change the dynamic
(06:57):
of the race. First of all, we don't even know
for certain that Representative Stefanic is going to enter the race.
She said she'll announce her decision at the end of
this year. But I think what is clear is that
the Democratic advantage, the built in advantage that Democrats have
(07:19):
in New York State, particularly in statewide races.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
The fact that forty nine.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Percent of the enrolled voters of the state are Democrats,
only twenty three percent are Republican, The fact that no
Republican has won a statewide race in New York in
twenty three years since George Pataki was elected to his
third term as governor back in two thousand and two.
So Stephanic or any Republicans starts with a major, a
(07:46):
major uphill climb, a major battle.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
To win statewide in New York.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
So I think there's good news and bad news in
this poll for both Representative Stephanic and for Governor Hockel.
If we go back six weeks to our prior poll
that came out in June. At that time, Hochel was
up forty seven to twenty four percent, so a twenty
three point lead now down to fourteen Why Democrats barely moved,
(08:14):
but Republicans came home to Stefanic In June, they were
favoring Stefanic over Hokeel, but quote unquote only by fifty
five to fifteen percent. Now she leads among Republicans seventy
five to thirteen percent. Independence shifted a little bit, not
as much as Republicans, but Hokel had a seven point
(08:34):
lead with independent voters back in June.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Now Stefanic has a very narrow three point lead with
independent voters.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
So what we see is the built in advantage that
Democrats have of two to one is not showing up
in the horse race question.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Rather, the horse.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Race right now is showing up sort of in the
middle between where enrollment is in the state and where
Hokal versus Zelden ended three years ago.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Because we'll recall that hochel.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
One election to a full four year term, but it
was only by six points. It was the closest gubernatorial
election in a generation.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Well, thinking about the governor, is there anything in these
numbers that you think is particularly troubling or good for
her when it comes to her favorability numbers? Is there
anything that you're seeing in terms of trends that suggest
things are going in the right or wrong direction for her?
Or do her numbers seem to have stabilized at this
(09:37):
sort of I don't know split perception amongst voters.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Well, it's not an easy yet yes or no question,
because right now her favorability rating is forty two percent
of New Yorker's view her favorably forty four percent viewer unfavorably,
getting close to.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Break even, but not quite there.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
The better news for Governor Hokel is her job approval
rating right now fifty three percent of New Yorker's approved
the job she's doing as governor. Forty one percent oppose it,
twelve points above water, the best job approval rating she's
had in two and a half years, since March of
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Then we go to the bad news number for the
governor her reelect.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
If the election were today, would you vote to re
elect Hokal or would you.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Prefer quote unquote someone else?
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Right now, only thirty five percent of New Yorkers say
they're prepared to re elect her. Fifty three percent, a
clear majority, say they would prefer someone else. When we
look at Democrats alone on that question, this should be
a concerning number to Governor Hockel's team. Forty seven percent
of Democrats say they're prepared to re elect her. Forty
(10:48):
two percent of Democrats would prefer someone else.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Yeah, but if we look at who that someone else
might be from the Democratic side right now, Lieutenant Governor
Antonio Delgado, it doesn't seem like Democrats are clamoring for
him over Governor Kathy Hokol.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
No, that is certainly the case ten months out from
this potential primary, I would simply point you to earlier
this year January February March of this year, three four,
five months in advance of the New York City mayoral primary,
and everyone thought it was Andrew Cuomo's to lose, that
(11:28):
there was no way Mondami could win this race. Yet
that's what happens. So, you know, events change things. Voters
become happy with somebody, unhappy with somebody because of an issue,
because of something else.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Anything can happen. So right now, ten months out, I.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Agree she is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic
nominee for governor next year.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
That said, there's a long way to go.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
Well, we've been speaking with Santa Poster Steve Greenberg from
the Siena Research Institute. Steve, thank you so much for
making the time. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Thank you for having me, David.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
If you're enjoying the Capitol Pressroom, please consider making a
recurring contribution to help make our journalism possible. To show
your support, visit Capitolpressroom dot org slash donate
This is WCNYS the Capitol press Room, and we're unpacking
a new survey of New York voters from the Siena
Research Institute and to make sense of the numbers. We're
joined by Sienna Polster Steve Greenberg. Thanks making the time, Steve,
happy to be here. David Well, I want to start
with an issue that's likely going to be part of
Albany's speculation from now until the next state budget is
(00:25):
adopted sometime in the spring of twenty twenty six, which
is how state policymakers should respond to the cuts in
federal aid to New York as a result of the
Big Beautiful Bill adopted in July and Washington DC. How
do New Yorkers think this shortfall should be addressed by
the state.
Speaker 2 (00:44):
Well, we gave voters two choices.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
We said, if the Feds cut money and the state
needs to make that up, should the state do so
more by raising taxes or more by reducing services and
reducing services wins, but not overwhelmingly. Thirty six percent of
New Yorkers say the way the legislature and governor should
(01:09):
close the gap is more by reducing services. Twenty four
percent set increasing taxes and We tried to avoid getting
a lot of people in the middle by saying which
one would do it more, but still we had sixteen
percent of people who said a little bit of this,
a little bit of that.
Speaker 1 (01:28):
Do you think if you ask to follow up to
this question saying we're going to raise taxes on the
wealthy or raise taxes on all New Yorkers, do you
think that nuance might provide some different results to this
type of question or do you think those numbers twenty
four percent supporting raising state taxes would remain pretty consistent.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
No, I think that could impact it, certainly. People are
much more likely to support tax increases that don't affect
them but affect somebody else.
Speaker 2 (02:02):
But there's no serious proposal out there yet.
Speaker 3 (02:05):
We'll certainly take a closer look at it when the
governor proposes her budget, when the legislative leaders and legislators
start talking about, you know, their proposed solutions for the
budget next year. But yeah, that certainly could impact it.
And what we see, not surprisingly, is a large partisan divide,
(02:26):
so a plurality of Democrats, but only a narrow plurality.
Thirty five to twenty five percent say raise taxes, but
fifty one percent of Republicans and looking more like Republicans
than Democrats on this question, forty four percent of independent
voters say reduce services, don't raise taxes.
Speaker 1 (02:50):
Well, turning to another issue that's part of the dialogue
here in Planet Albany, that's the debate over potentially updating
the state constitution to a low New York policymakers to
redraw congressional districts mid decade instead of every ten years
following the adoption of the census. This amendment would be
(03:11):
triggered if another state was to draw its lines mid decade.
Kind Of a very insular topic that not everyone cares about.
But what was the sentiment from voters.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
Sort of a little bit of this, A little bit
of that. We asked voters if they would support or
oppose such an amendment, and we had included the caveat
that another state had already done so. And what we
find is thirty five percent of New York voters say
they support such an amendment. A nearly equal thirty four
(03:45):
percent oppose such an amendment. We see the partisan divide.
Democrats support it by a forty five to twenty nine
percent margin, Republicans oppose it.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Forty two to twenty four percent.
Speaker 3 (03:58):
Independence oppose by a slightly smaller margin thirty five to
twenty six percent. Gotta tell you, I'm a little surprised
on this one, David, that the partisan divide isn't larger
than it is, that Republicans weren't overwhelmingly know and Democrats
weren't overwhelmingly Yes, But part of it may be the
fact that a lot of these Democrats have been talking
(04:22):
throughout their career, certainly over the last several years about,
you know, the importance of eliminating jerry mandering and doing
reapportionment the right way quote unquote. So maybe there are
Democrats who, while they may politically want it, feel like
it's just the wrong thing to do, even if another
state does it.
Speaker 1 (04:42):
Yeah, I think the lack of a demonstrable partisan divide
is probably a fact of people not really knowing much
about this issue, not necessarily knowing is this something that
benefits Democrats? Is this something that benefits Republicans? Who's pushing it?
Because the way the question is framed, it's not like
New York Democrats are looking to do this, which is
(05:04):
the case here. So I think if you had some
follow up questions. I think there might be a more
stark divide, don't you.
Speaker 2 (05:12):
It's potential.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
Again, as this issue proceeds, we wanted to get a
baseline on it. And if this issue remains a live
issue during the twenty twenty sixth session, and I imagine
it will, we'll certainly be looking more at this issue
and some of the nuance in there.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Well.
Speaker 1 (05:30):
Before we move on, let me reintroduce you for listeners
just joining us. We're speaking with Sienna Polster Steve Greenberg,
and we're going over a new survey of voters that
was conducted from August fourth to August seventh, and sticking
with the idea of issues that are likely going to evolve,
(05:50):
you took the temperature of registered voters about a potential
matchup for governor between incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochel and Republican
congressom at least Stephanic, who has yet to declare but
is definitely playing footsie with this idea. You found that
Hokel leads this matchup forty five percent to thirty one percent,
with twenty percent saying don't know or refusing to answer.
(06:15):
I want to start with Stephanic, is there anything about
these numbers in terms of this head to head matchup,
or maybe statewide favorability numbers that you think are particularly
good for her or particularly bad for her, or this
far out from a general election, maybe it's too soon
to read too much into any of these numbers.
Speaker 3 (06:37):
Well, as you and I have talked about many times,
poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. So
here we are in early August twenty twenty five talking
about an election that you know, the primaries for such
an election are ten months away. The actual election itself
is fifteen months away. A million things are going to
happen between now and then that will change the dynamic
(06:57):
of the race. First of all, we don't even know
for certain that Representative Stefanic is going to enter the race.
She said she'll announce her decision at the end of
this year. But I think what is clear is that
the Democratic advantage, the built in advantage that Democrats have
(07:19):
in New York State, particularly in statewide races.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
The fact that forty nine.
Speaker 3 (07:23):
Percent of the enrolled voters of the state are Democrats,
only twenty three percent are Republican, The fact that no
Republican has won a statewide race in New York in
twenty three years since George Pataki was elected to his
third term as governor back in two thousand and two.
So Stephanic or any Republicans starts with a major, a
(07:46):
major uphill climb, a major battle.
Speaker 2 (07:48):
To win statewide in New York.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
So I think there's good news and bad news in
this poll for both Representative Stephanic and for Governor Hockel.
If we go back six weeks to our prior poll
that came out in June. At that time, Hochel was
up forty seven to twenty four percent, so a twenty
three point lead now down to fourteen Why Democrats barely moved,
(08:14):
but Republicans came home to Stefanic In June, they were
favoring Stefanic over Hokeel, but quote unquote only by fifty
five to fifteen percent. Now she leads among Republicans seventy
five to thirteen percent. Independence shifted a little bit, not
as much as Republicans, but Hokel had a seven point
(08:34):
lead with independent voters back in June.
Speaker 2 (08:37):
Now Stefanic has a very narrow three point lead with
independent voters.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
So what we see is the built in advantage that
Democrats have of two to one is not showing up
in the horse race question.
Speaker 2 (08:51):
Rather, the horse.
Speaker 3 (08:53):
Race right now is showing up sort of in the
middle between where enrollment is in the state and where
Hokal versus Zelden ended three years ago.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Because we'll recall that hochel.
Speaker 3 (09:05):
One election to a full four year term, but it
was only by six points. It was the closest gubernatorial
election in a generation.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Well, thinking about the governor, is there anything in these
numbers that you think is particularly troubling or good for
her when it comes to her favorability numbers? Is there
anything that you're seeing in terms of trends that suggest
things are going in the right or wrong direction for her?
Or do her numbers seem to have stabilized at this
(09:37):
sort of I don't know split perception amongst voters.
Speaker 3 (09:43):
Well, it's not an easy yet yes or no question,
because right now her favorability rating is forty two percent
of New Yorker's view her favorably forty four percent viewer unfavorably,
getting close to.
Speaker 2 (09:56):
Break even, but not quite there.
Speaker 3 (09:59):
The better news for Governor Hokel is her job approval
rating right now fifty three percent of New Yorker's approved
the job she's doing as governor. Forty one percent oppose it,
twelve points above water, the best job approval rating she's
had in two and a half years, since March of
twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2 (10:17):
Then we go to the bad news number for the
governor her reelect.
Speaker 3 (10:21):
If the election were today, would you vote to re
elect Hokal or would you.
Speaker 2 (10:24):
Prefer quote unquote someone else?
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Right now, only thirty five percent of New Yorkers say
they're prepared to re elect her. Fifty three percent, a
clear majority, say they would prefer someone else. When we
look at Democrats alone on that question, this should be
a concerning number to Governor Hockel's team. Forty seven percent
of Democrats say they're prepared to re elect her. Forty
(10:48):
two percent of Democrats would prefer someone else.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Yeah, but if we look at who that someone else
might be from the Democratic side right now, Lieutenant Governor
Antonio Delgado, it doesn't seem like Democrats are clamoring for
him over Governor Kathy Hokol.
Speaker 3 (11:07):
No, that is certainly the case ten months out from
this potential primary, I would simply point you to earlier
this year January February March of this year, three four,
five months in advance of the New York City mayoral primary,
and everyone thought it was Andrew Cuomo's to lose, that
(11:28):
there was no way Mondami could win this race. Yet
that's what happens. So, you know, events change things. Voters
become happy with somebody, unhappy with somebody because of an issue,
because of something else.
Speaker 2 (11:43):
Anything can happen. So right now, ten months out, I.
Speaker 3 (11:46):
Agree she is the prohibitive favorite to be the Democratic
nominee for governor next year.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
That said, there's a long way to go.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
Well, we've been speaking with Santa Poster Steve Greenberg from
the Siena Research Institute. Steve, thank you so much for
making the time. I really appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Thank you for having me, David.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
If you're enjoying the Capitol Pressroom, please consider making a
recurring contribution to help make our journalism possible. To show
your support, visit Capitolpressroom dot org slash donate
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