Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Leslie Marshall Show, the Only True Democracy and Talk
Radio of four and by you the People, live nationwide
and streaming live at Leslie Marshallshow dot Com.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Here to set you free. Happy Friday, Thank God it's Friday.
Whoever you think, I'm Leslie Marshall. Welcome or welcome back,
Only True Democracy and Talk. Thank you for listening to us.
Thank you for watching us, whether you do it live
or when it's convenient for you. One good thing about technology.
I know there are many more, but I have many
gripes about technology as well. One of the things I
don't gripe about is some of our great guests who
(01:02):
we've known for many years, who I adure personally and professionally.
Our next guest, who is going to be with us
the first half of this hour, and we've got two
really important things to talk about. They're very timely. In
the first, couldn't be more timely. It's sort of like,
here you go, let's talk about it. Doctor Robert Shapiro
is joining US, chairman of Soniccon, an economic advisory firm,
(01:25):
and a Senior Fellow of the McDonough's School of Business
at Georgetown University. Now he brings broad knowledge and experience
in economics and politics, based on his government experience decades
of conducting analysis and providing advice to US presidents, senators, representatives,
and governors, as well as foreign leaders and senior executives
at numerous Fortune one hundred companies. Now his views that
(01:48):
are respected not just here but throughout the world. He's
helped develop numerous policies that affect investment, taxation, regulation, trade,
and government spending here and abroad. His website dot com
that's s O n E dot co o N dot com.
Oh sorry, Ron, s o n E c o n
dot com. That's s O n E c o N
(02:09):
dot com. By bat his handle on x at Rob
Shapiro r O B s h A p I r
O Dutch garraff forgot to tell you. Back in the day,
briefly I dated a guy named Bobby Shapiro, but it wasn't.
Speaker 3 (02:27):
I really liked him, He.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
Just liked his girlfriend before we better good to have
you with us, Doctor Shapiro. Well we could not have
better timing. The job support came out, and I think
abysmal is actually a compliment to uh these job figures
and uh, you know the President fired the b LS
chief the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the b l
(02:50):
S again handed the president a bleak set of job numbers.
And that's just one month after he fired that commissioner
of that agency over weak employment data. So he can
keep firing people and keep blaming the messenger, but the
problem is him if he looks in the mirror and
his administration correct.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Absolutely, you know, it's a You can try to intimidate people,
but you can intimidate the economy. The economy has its
own rules, and we know the rules, and we know
what works and what doesn't work, and what the current
administration is put in place doesn't work. You know, Unemployment,
(03:36):
the unemployment rate has risen now for three months in
a row. That's true for men, it's true for women,
it's true for whites. It's true for blacks, although it
is rising faster unemployment among African Americans, then among Caucasians.
(03:56):
Manufacturing jobs have declined for three months in a row.
Construction jobs have declined for three months in a row.
These are supposed to be, you know, the ground the
crown jewels of Trump's policy. Virtually all the games have
(04:18):
come in healthcare and that's a trend that will stop
when Trump's Medicaid cuts. Uh phase in.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
No, I'm want to jump in for a second, doctor Shapiro.
You know some of the numbers that you know in
the industries, the sectors that you're describing, you have from
this report that the BLS, you know, just put out.
The non farm payroll employment rose by only twenty two
thousand in August. Analysts forecasts they would add seventy five
thousand jobs during the month. And according to the BLS,
(04:51):
like you said, the games made in healthcare, would you agree,
those are offset by losses in the federal government also
losses in mining, quarrying, oil gas extraction. In other words,
you can put everything together and try and put a
spotlight in one area where there are some gains, but
those gains will be eroded and kind of already eroded.
(05:13):
When you put everything in the pot. It comes out
of negative.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Right absolutely. And you know, let's keep in mind that
in the last two years of the Biden administration, that is,
after the kind of bounce back from the enormous fall
and employment in the pandemic, we were averaging more than
(05:39):
between two hundred and two hundred and fifty thousand new
jobs a month. A month a month, we were gaining
about two and a half million jobs a year.
Speaker 2 (05:54):
Okay, I want for people that perspective. July, people will say, well,
the figures are revised and they went up. Yes, they
went up six thousand, from seventy three thousand to seventy
nine and you're talking about over two hundred thousand. In
June they were devised down twenty seven thousand, dropping from
fourteen thousand to minus thirteen thousand, And that means that
(06:15):
this past June marked the first time the labor market
shed jobs since twenty twenty, that's during the pandemic. And
the unemployment rate, which has been steadily low, that edged
up to four point three percent from four point two
percent in August. This really matters. Obviously, A lot of
(06:35):
people would ask, doctor, is this a clear indication that
we are headed toward, if not already in, a recession.
Speaker 3 (06:44):
My view is yes, I personally expect, or we'd forecast
a recession beginning around the end of the year or
in the first quarter of next year. What a recession
you usually requires, however, is a shock to the economy.
(07:04):
The economy is already weak and then it gets a shock.
And we may get that from you know, new tariffs.
We may get that from foreign policy problems, from oil prices,
We may get that from interest rates. You know, Trump
(07:27):
wants to cut interest rates, and but the Fed can
only control very short term interest rates. And when other
things are happening in the economy, like in particular, inflation rising,
which it which, which it has been doing for the
(07:47):
last three months, and and that kind of shock tips
you over into a recession if the economy has been
slowing sharp.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Doctor. The report today was the focus of heightened attention.
As you know, last month's data was also disappointing. When
you look at and you know you're there in DC,
when you look at the Republican leadership, can't they see
the writing on the wall? It is the economy stupid,
and you know their allegiance to Trump is going to
(08:24):
cost many of them their jobs, whether it be in
the next midterm cycle or in twenty twenty eight. You know,
inside the Beltway, are you hearing whispers of concern, you know,
behind the scenes, as opposed to people who don't seem
brave enough to stand up and say, okay, we've got
to put the brakes on Trump and these tarrifts, and
(08:46):
we got to do something to offset it because the
cost cutting measures that they're using with the federal government,
to your point, are really going to hurt various you know, industries.
We've already seen that in construction. We knew this was
gonna We knew this is going to happen when you
start deporting everybody who has brown skin named Jose. And
then when you when you also to your point, you know,
(09:08):
with with healthcare, which was the only area where you know,
you say something you know positive, that's going to go
bye bye because of further cuts. This just seems like
somebody is over there throwing literally crap against the wall
and just making a further mess of it. Are you
hearing Republicans being concerned.
Speaker 3 (09:27):
Yes, But keep in mind, and I hear this from
uh from Republicans as well, that you know, Donald Trump
tries to govern by threats, and there is no group
that is under as much political threat from Trump as
(09:49):
congressional Republicans. Uh. He says, you step out of line,
and I will support a opponent in your primary and
you'll lose the primary. So their hands have been tied.
That's why you know, the most manifestly unqualified people ever
(10:11):
to be appointed to a cabinet, like Robert Kennedy Junior,
and Haig Seth at Defense and Tolcy Gabbard at such
ad Intelligence all got confirmed despite the fact that the
Republicans knew that they were unqualified and would screw up.
Speaker 2 (10:35):
And that they were putting qualified people. I mean, you
even had you know, you've had Republican doctors Vota bar
K Junior. Doctor Shapiro, We're going to take a break.
When we come back, We're going to talk about something
near and dear to your heart. I know off there,
you and I chought about some other stuff the other
day and we were talking about it, and I'm excited
to talk about it, and that is the Trump surge
in DC and the lies behind that and what it's
(10:55):
doing and why it's wrong. We'll be back, Doctor Shapiro,
you right after this.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
Way.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Are back to Doctor Robert Shapiro, chairman of Sunacon. Check
out their website saunacon dot com, son e con dot
com and follow doctor Shapiro on x at Rob Shapiro.
Doctor Shapiro, thank you for holding Welcome back. You wrote
a great piece called the Lies behind Trump's DC troop surge. Now,
you are an economist. You are a political economist. And
(11:26):
when the president claimed to the authority to deploy the military,
the United States military, to the streets of Washington, d c.
Claiming to fight crime, you said enough, I need to
speak out. I need to write about this. Why. And
you don't talk about this just from an opinion point,
but you also talk about it from a very strong,
hard data point as well well.
Speaker 3 (11:48):
The reason I wrote about it is that there is
no democracy in the world that station's troops in its
capital cities. There are a lot of countries that do,
and they are all dictatorships. They're military dictatorships like Cuba
or chat or Botswana, or they're the leading civilian dictatorships, China, Russia,
(12:14):
North Korea, Turkey, Afghanistan. They all have stationed troops in
their capital cities. But in no democracy in the world
except ours, has the chief executive station troops. Now, you know,
we have seen troops in Washington in the past twice,
(12:38):
during the War of eighteen twelve when we were being
invaded and during the Civil War. Well, there's no civil
war right now, We're not being invaded. So Trump instead
cites crime, says that we needed to station troops because
of crime in DC. Show that is totally fallacious. Washington's
(13:04):
violent crime rate last year fell thirty five percent.
Speaker 2 (13:09):
And that's like a thirty year low, isn't it. Yes,
specifically in homicides and other violin yees, not carjackings, but
some of the other right, yes.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
And moreover, you know, the FBI publishes the data, and
those data show that Washington has a lower violent crime
rate than Indianapolis, Albuquerque, Memphis, Nashville, Milwaukee, a lower property
crime rate than Tucson, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Memphis, or Seattle, and
(13:42):
a lower homicide rate than Indianapolis, Detroit, Nashville, Milwaukee, and Baltimore.
And the fact is, you know, he has uh. Trump
has now threatened to send mill terry forces into cities
(14:03):
like Chicago City, LA and LA and where he already
sent them, and New York. One of the striking things
about all the cities he's named is that they're all
in blue states. He has not mentioned cities with much
(14:24):
higher crime rates like Memphis and Nashville in red states.
In fact, or Saint Louis. Saint Louis has a height
Saint louis Is homicide rate is twice the rate of DC.
It's two and a half times the rate of Chicago.
(14:45):
It's twelve times the rate of New York City. This
is not about crime, has nothing to do with crime.
You know, Machiavelli wrote a long time ago that an
aspiring strong man like Trump uses threats and military troops
(15:05):
to advance his own authority an agenda. It's a form
of intimidation.
Speaker 2 (15:14):
And you also mentioned something, you know, doctor Shapira, that
a lot of people don't think about Washington, DC is
not a state, and maybe if they were, it would
be helpful. But because they're not a state and they
are a city, you can't compare. You've got to compare
apples to apples, right, And you write in your piece
that the data last year from the FBI shows that
Washington had a lower crime rate than Indianapolis, Albuquerque, Memphis, Nashville, Milwaukee,
(15:40):
also a lower crime property crime rate than Tucson, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Albuquerque, Memphis,
or Seattle. There were fifty three cities that have a
higher crime rate, and some of those states that have
those cities within them are sending their National Guard away
from their higher crime rate and problem to Washington, DC,
to to serve at the pleasure of the president, if
(16:02):
you will.
Speaker 3 (16:03):
This is all about politics and power. Has nothing to
do with protecting American citizens, either their lives or their property.
It has nothing to do with the law which explicitly
bars the use of military troops for police actions. It's
(16:24):
called the pass Camatatas rule, which was passed in the
eighteen seventies and has been invoked many times to prevent this.
This is really about Trump's fantasy that he can get
(16:46):
what he wants through force. This is the action of
what the psychologists call a malignant narcissist, someone who wants
whatever he wants and leans towards wanting things that hurt
(17:09):
other people. We see that certainly throughout the immigration policy,
and now we're seeing it in this attempt to militarize
American cities, again, a tactic you used in every major
(17:30):
dictatorship in the world, and not used in any democracy
in the world except here under Trump.
Speaker 2 (17:41):
Doctor Shapiro, My favorite line from your piece is actually
the last, in which you say Trump's militarization of the
streets of DC isn't technically illegal, but the distinct odor
of authoritarianism is unmistakable.
Speaker 3 (17:54):
It is this is you know, Trump's general view politics,
which divides the country into friends, his friends versus his enemies,
as opposed to people in a common enterprise of figuring
(18:15):
out what's best for the country, which is what democracies do.
This framework of friends versus enemies was first developed by
the Nazi philosopher Karl Schmidt, who was also a leading
jurist under Hitler, and Trump's use of troops recalls Schmidt's
(18:38):
view that when domestic enemies oppose a leader's policy, the
leader has a right to exercise emergency powers to suppress them.
That describes what Donald Trump has been.
Speaker 2 (18:54):
Doing absolutely without question. You have to go to sona
khon dot com because doctor Robert Shapiro not only chairman
of Sonacon, like I said, he has worldwide experience in
both economics and politics, and based on his government service,
based on his analysis that he's conducted for decades, he
(19:15):
arrives at these things. And you can read his piece
his blog, The Lies behind Trump's d C troop search
very interesting. He has historical stuff, he has data in there.
It's a great read and you can check it out
at sonacon dot com. That's s O Capital s O
n e c o N dot com and on X
doctor Shapiro's handle is at Rob Shapiro r O B
(19:38):
s h A p I r O Capital r O
B Capital, s h A p I r O. We're
gonna take a break. We'll be back.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
This one, one quick thing. They are also available at
Washington Monthly dot com.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Thank you, I appreciate that. Washington Monthly dot com. Check
it out.