September 18, 2024 • 57 mins
MatStats takes on the new rule change for Takedowns in collegiate wrestling. We do our normal statistical analysis of how the new rule has affected our sport. The gang shoots deep into the Men’s NCAA D1 & D2 Championships to see what results we can find. It is such an important topic that we are doing a two-part series.
Slideshow for this Episode: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/slideshow36.pdf
Sticker Mule wants to make sure your team, program, company or project is set to go with quality graphics and promotional materials. With custom sizes and styles, let Sticker Mule take care of your brand today. Check out this wrestling-friendly business today at https://www.stickermule.com/custom-stickers
About Mat Stats
Welcome to the NWCA’s latest venture to help our favorite sport. Glenn Gormley, Jason Bryant and Kevin Hazard outline their effort to bring statistical analysis to wrestling. Mat Stats is the NWCA’s attempt to bring wrestling up to speed with so many other sports by incorporating stats. It is the same sport, the wrestlers are just older and better.
Mat Stats by the NWCA is a monthly podcast by the National Wrestling Coaches Association
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRadio | Podcast Addict | Castbox | RSS
Slideshow for this Episode: https://www.mattalkonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/slideshow36.pdf
Sticker Mule wants to make sure your team, program, company or project is set to go with quality graphics and promotional materials. With custom sizes and styles, let Sticker Mule take care of your brand today. Check out this wrestling-friendly business today at https://www.stickermule.com/custom-stickers
About Mat Stats
Welcome to the NWCA’s latest venture to help our favorite sport. Glenn Gormley, Jason Bryant and Kevin Hazard outline their effort to bring statistical analysis to wrestling. Mat Stats is the NWCA’s attempt to bring wrestling up to speed with so many other sports by incorporating stats. It is the same sport, the wrestlers are just older and better.
Mat Stats by the NWCA is a monthly podcast by the National Wrestling Coaches Association
Apple Podcasts | Spotify | iHeartRadio | Podcast Addict | Castbox | RSS
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:03):
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
But numbers aren't just for nerds.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
In life, decisions need data. In wrestling decisions, projections and
hypotheticals also need data. Here on matt Stats, we take
historical data, theories, and statistics and apply it to the
world's oldest and greatest sport. Now to your trio of
numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley, Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Episode thirty six of the mat Stats Show, back at
you after a little break post convention, post Olympics, Kevin
Hazard and Glenn Gormley here with me. I'm your host,
Jason Bryant. Today we're going to keep diving into the
world of the three point Takedown. Like we did in the
last episode, We're going to keep going. Today we're going
to go with the Division two world. But before we
(01:01):
get to that, we got some convention recaps from our
from our Grand Puba and our assaultan of stat Here Glenn, Kevin,
you guys got to spend the end of July down
in Florida. Apparently that place is pretty good with the
golf I know, I'm horrible at the golf. Did you
guys have a chance to hit the links at all?
Or was it all wrestling discussion and Glenn bragging about
(01:23):
his valls.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Yeah, it's I've golfed there twice before, but not this time.
When I was down there, I just spent a whole
week talking wrestling in the balls. That's about all I did.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Well, we did, we did that, and then you know,
we also we set up a booth. But it was
it was fun. I got to see a lot of people,
and it's always good you go to a convention. It's
kind of like the NCAA's because you see so many
people that you don't get to see during the rest
of the year. And that was so that was fun.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
So but is it like it's not like the suite,
because I got to feel the level of sobriety for
many people that go to the convention significantly lower than no, well,
unless you're out on the course, you know, playing for
skins or something like that. But we did a live show,
a game day type of thing down at the convention.
Had a good time with that before I shipped out
(02:19):
to Paris, which I can actually talk about now because
full disclosure. There is this such thing as a non
disclosure agreement with some of these Olympic contracts. So while
many people knew what my role there was going to be,
I could not come out and exactly say what I
was doing. But that was my third time as the
English announcer for the Olympic Games. My first one I'd
(02:41):
went to was in London back in twenty twelve as
part of the USA Wrestling's media staff. Twenty sixteen, I
announced in Rio, twenty twenty one, announced in Tokyo, twenty
twenty four, announced in Paris. Not just that, but a
little little nerdery came through. It had, you know, the
best man of my wedding, Nate schi He wrestled at
Frank and a Marshall, him and his wife. We're out
there with some other friends, you know, Brian Stole, the
(03:02):
head coach at del Barton, his wife, our buddy Nick
Frost out in Arizona. So it was a crew of
us that after we got done with Paris, we went
to Munich and spent a couple of days down in Munich,
went up to the top of the zoog Spits of
the highest mountain in Germany, and then had you could
actually walk across a little like footbridge. It wasn't like
hanging over a mountain or anything. Into Austria. You get
(03:24):
your passport stamp. But gentlemen, there were beer gardens at
the top of a mountain. We drank it the highest
beer garden in the world and it was quite amazing.
And then the kicker to all of it, we all
went to see Adele on the fourteenth of August. Eighty
thousand people. See. It was like Lallapalooza with one act.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
It was amazing.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
It was cool to share the Olympic experience with the
wife and then do like adult things outside of the country,
like the beer gardens were. I was like, man, I
could just just do this thing. October Fest is right
here on our calendar right now, you know, third weekend
of September goes on for three weekends. Traditionally. It's like, man,
I need to go to Munich more because that was
just an awesome trip. So I had a chance to
(04:06):
see the women win two gold medals announced you know,
you know. Have the cool thing for me was again
my wife getting the opportunity to come to the Olympics
and she doesn't travel with me on on work trips,
wrestling trip, so we got to spend some time on
a work trip together and not think about work afterwards.
So that was a cool thing. And then with some
some good friends as well, so wrestling friends, because we're
all wrestling people and the wives had to tolerate us.
(04:28):
I guess that was the way it was. But once
the wrestling was over, that that toleration was okay. So
that was that was my Olympic trip. You guys had
the beach and golf. I had steamy Paris. It was
a little warm over there at the base of the
Eiffel Tower and and and you know, Sarah Hildebrant, I
meant a lore winning goals for Team USA and other
medals across the board on men's women's freestyle. So that
(04:50):
was that was my trip. I enjoyed that immensely.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
So how about Paris? What did you I heard in
universe what about Paris? I've never been, and it just
it looks like such a gorgeous town and all the
you know, the romance comedies are set there, and it
just seemed like a great place to bring your wife.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
It was.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
It was really cool. I mean, we went back the
last day after we flew out of Paris, so we
went back and then I ate at a restaurant fifty
six story fifty three fifty six stories up with the
Eiffel Tower in the background. So yeah, there's there's the
food scene that goes with that whole h Yeah, it
is a good place to bring a life. I loved
about it is the transportation was great. That the metro
system was really easy to use. With any European city,
(05:34):
you're going to get that, you know. That's it's still
one of those smoking countries, so you're gonna get the
cigarette smoke like you do and in a lot of
places in Europe anyway. So that was That's the only
negative thing I can I can say about the trip
was Okay, I I not a fan of cigarettes, so
that's and that's you know, that is what it is.
You're just gonna experience that. I mean, there's places in
(05:55):
the States you're gonna deal with that or bape smoke whatever.
So that's not a knock on the city itself by
any stretch.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
It was. It was really cool.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
I had a chance to hit a tap room or
two and then watch some sports. I got into judo
for a day check some of that out. The French
loved judo. Beach volleyball was right next door, so I
walked in, so a little bit of that. And then
another cool thing about it is the send runs right
through it, and wrestling had its hospitality house, like there's
like you know Team USA House and you know all
those houses, Well, wrestling had one, and I was on
(06:24):
a restaurant like riverboat right at the base of the
Eiffel Tower. So also had the opportunity to interview some
of every Olympic champions from across the world at the
base of the Eiffel Tower. With that, So France's definitely.
The food is tremendous. You know, it's very walkable in
a lot of places. I mean it's big. It's a
sprawling city, so it's you know, from one side to
(06:46):
the next stick and take an hour and twenty minutes
to get across up it. Some train trips are like
thirty forty minutes. So Paris did a great job. They
did a great job hosting World Championship in twenty seventeen,
so I had no worries that they were going to
do a great job. I had a great production team
to work with Hobby Senz who was my producer in Tokyo,
and his team did a great job. So it was
just really it's really low key. I really wasn't really
(07:06):
nervous at all. But as far as the city goes,
it was, uh, it was. It was excellent. I would
I would go back to Paris again without question.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Nice to hear and you did a great job, Jason too.
I enjoyed watching it and hearing you. You did a
great job.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
That is pretty that I gotta say from my advantae point, Yeah,
it is cool to go back and watch stuff like
that's a metal ceremony.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Cool.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I geek out over a NCA's. But you know, it's
uh doing the Olympics once every four years. I'm just
fortunate enough to have that gig. So as long as
it by saying something stupid, which as long as you
don't got you guys, don't course me into saying something
stupid on this show.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I think I'm good.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
I think I'm Goody it was I'm worried about you guys.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yeah, Jason, I have to say I'm still liking the haircut.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
It's bit say July, June, July, August, Yeah, this is
my fourth month. I'm yeah, I'm that guy. Yeah, I'm
that guy.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, it looks good on you.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Jack on the shine. Now in the studio, though, I
got to do everything I'd spend all this time like
worried about the shine here. Now it's I'm going to
change the lighting in here a little bit and it's
going to be there, so I get used to the
brain waves.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Now, I just got to make sure it just doesn't
look you know, I don't know, make it some that
powder like when you know, no, I'm not gonna wear
makeup for this show.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Come on. I do remember, and it's been a couple
of decades being in the studio and we went to
break and they came out with a big powder puff
and hit the top of my head. I thought, I
must be.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Was this when you were doing Matt Time? Was this
Matt Time?
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yeah? Wow?
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, it's an old, old throwback to the old late
nineties Kevin Hazard Matt. I remember read Landry from the
Prep Page was a guest on that show at You
one time, Yes, a long time ago. At the time
him and I were both in both Yeah, I think
he was in high school when he started the Prep page.
And I was just first year college when I started Matt.
So anyway, we're getting sidetracked. We are all right, We've
(09:03):
got a lot of stats to talk about. We got
a lot of stats to discuss. So without any further ado,
we're gonna switch over to our display here. And as
we've kept on to it, Glenn, the more things change,
the more things stay the same. Part two of three.
And we also if you're watching, which we do encourage
(09:23):
you to watch, we have the slide show that accompanies this.
Each show is on Matt Talk online dot com. It's
on NDBCA online dot com. We have it on the
video on NBC online dot com. Your audio on any
podcast app of choice, your choice, whether it be Apple
Podcasts or whether it be on a spreaker, whether it
be on Spotify. You know where to find if you're
(09:44):
listening to us to the podcast, you've already got this,
but Matt Talk online dot com, NBC online dot Com.
We'll have the accompanying slideshow to go with it. And Glenn,
we did something a little new to help it help
help the people out this week.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Yes, we did a little something new here. We're gonna
have what's called in episode. Uh, and if you're trying
to go back or find some stuff specifically, we have
what a lot of people call table contents, we call
it in this episode, and you can go to the
slide in case you're looking to see there. Okay. So
another thing that we did here is some people were
(10:20):
asking me at the convention why do we do this show?
They were asking me and Kevin when we were there
live and it basically Mike Moore, of course, the ED
of the NWCA, approached us and he wants to have
a library statistical analysis for the NWCA, And as Jason
just mentioned, you can go back on Matt Talk on
NWCA and find the stuff. So that's basically why we're
(10:41):
doing this. And then we have our normal stuff. You know,
I feel like a number, okay, because this is a
show about numbers, okay, and then what we derive from them.
And then of course the most famous phone number ever,
Danny's Glass at your Tale Virginia eight six seventy five
three oh nine.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
We gotta tell you, I gotta call him up at
least put a logo on their page here for one episode,
like hey, we'll give you. I don't know, maybe we
gotta we gotta get them some I don't know what
anybody down there need need some autoglass. They also do
some race car stuff. Anyway, we gotta find a way
to work that deal.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
If you're in the Peninsula and you need your glass
done on your car, Danny's glass is the guy to
do it.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We need to clip that and send it to him.
Be like, look what we were doing for you guys.
We've been doing this for like two years with these guys.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
And he's gonna say, I wondered why I had that
big uptick. Yes, third week of the month every year,
all these wrestlers. Ye.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
Okay, So of course, the expended opinions express of the
show do not necessarily reflect any policies or opinions of
the nw c A. And just so everybody knows, doesn't
mean that Gorms, Jason and Kevin agree on everything here. Okay,
just because I say something, don't hang it on Kevin
and Jason, you know, the same way vice versa. Okay,
(11:56):
Matt status is based on numbers and stats and analyzing them.
It's not based on opinions. Okay, it's facts, not opinions.
Just who everybody knows it revolves around the status as
we always talk about. Now, we'd like to start out
this show too, as is on slide nine here, and
give everyone how many four year college teams are men
(12:19):
and women NCAA and n ai A. As of eight
thirty one of this year, there was five hundred and eleven.
Keep it going, guys, you know, let's get this thing
up to as big as number as we can. It's
great for the sport.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Yeah, eight thirty one is the ballpark number here, although
we're in the September as we're recording this particular episode.
But yeah, we've had a couple of new programs Jersey
and Kane Universities added to We've got another one, Thick
Spaulding's about to come on board. We've got a Division
two I think that's coming on board soon. That one
has yet to be announced. By the time you watch
the show, it might be announced. So we've got programs
(12:57):
are just still every show, this number goes up again.
That's the that's the Matt fact on the Matt Status.
The growth of college wrestling is still happening, and it's
also happening at the high school levels too. With I'm
in the middle of some projects working on girls high
school wrestling numbers going back to nineteen ninety nine, when
in nineteen ninety eight when Hawaii first sanction, nineteen ninety
(13:17):
nine went Texas. So we're gonna have Glenn doesn't know
this yet, I'm dropping the bomb on him now, but
we're gonna have. We're gonna have some some high school
girl statistics to look at, because now you know one
of those forties number. Now it's a question like which
states don't have it versus what states do have it?
And that's that's a good thing to do. And that's
also going to help the college the growth of college
programs when you get that critical mass of athletes. I
(13:38):
always said when they were adding these many programs, it's
that you need your second class of high school kids
to go through to really see the rise on the
girls side of wrestling. And that's that's gonna basically trickle
up to the women's college wrestling thing. Of course, with
emerging sports status, we're close to gonna be close to
a championship, maybe as soon as next year. On the
NCAA level. The NAI already got it, the n JCA
(13:59):
already has it, the NA has been doing it for
a while so that's where we're at there, so a
little little foreshadowing on our programs page. This is like
my favorite part of the show is the programs page.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Well, and you talk about women's wrestling, Well, what a segue?
Have one hundred and fifty one four year college teams.
So that's a you know, that's up, It's keeps going up,
and it really is become a really integral part of
collegiate wrestling. I don't I really believe, like the slide says,
(14:33):
we wouldn't see the growth in men's wrestling right now
without the growth in women's wrestling.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
Agreed, Okay, guys, Jason Kevin mentioned about the convention we
were just at recently. I just wanted to give a
big shout out to Mike, Jackie, Dan Curry, Nate Jim,
Stephanie Beth and Dave, Paul Cassandra and all the other interns.
I think they do a fantastic job. Just everybody knows,
since this is a stat show, the four largest NWCA
(15:05):
conventions ever were the last four, you know, because there
was a COVID situation there, so it's not the last
four years. But that's a pretty impressive thing. And way
back when, before electricity, I used to be an assistant
coach in college and we didn't even hear talk of
the NWCA convention then. Now I won't miss it. You know,
(15:25):
it's fantastic. So guys, keep up a great job. And
I mean, it was just a fantastic job by Miking
his entire staff.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Can't you haven't if you haven't been go and let's
let's talk about the convention just a little bit. We
did make some predictions and Glenn, how did your predictions
do not as well.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
As Kevin's did in the Olympics. Okay, so I'm the
Sultan of stat I'm not the guru of predictions by
any means. Okay, Uh, I picked a guy that wont
to Bron's kept picked the guy that won a silver,
So Kevin beat me out. We both predicted a woman
to win the same woman to win the gold. So
Kevin definitely wins the the he wins the Chris Berman
(16:08):
Award for Power.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Yeah, Kevin, speaking of poo Bob power. He is loving retirement.
You see this shirt for those watching that's got the
most retired shirt. Got a beach shirt on. Ever, this
guy is just loving as Delaware beach life. It's just
if I would wear that at my age, I would
be mocked heavily. Your age, you are applauded for it.
(16:33):
So I applaud you, sir, for your haircut and your
Actually I might wear that shirt just just to annoy
my wife.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
It's a good it's a great color. Good color for you, Jason.
Speaker 4 (16:41):
I should have warned a wine shirt for you. Kevin,
if I know and you were going to sport that you.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Wear too many loud, obnoxious things anyway, and that's that's
that doesn't count the ball stuff anyway.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Anyway, Oh I am loud and obnoxious.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Like well, talking about barrying the lead. We we've got
to get to We've got we've got a lot of
a lot of a lot of content to get through here. So, Glenn,
the goal of this speed down sixty four on.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
This Okay, the goal of this episode is to see
how the three point takedown has affected our sport.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Okay, twenty twenty four, they changed it to three points,
the biggest scoring change, you know, since in a long
long time. It's it's so we've now been looking at it,
and Glenn, what did we learn from our study?
Speaker 4 (17:28):
Okay, Well, first, of all Housard and fifty did all
this research. Wanted to give him a shout out. So
what we learned here, Okay, we're trying something new. We're
going to give you guys a taste of what's coming
up and then review it, then suburb and then analyze it,
then review it. Okay, we saw more points per match.
(17:50):
The D one and D two were similar. We saw
a small decrease of the number of takedowns per match.
Escapes went up, reversals went down. The totals were about
to say back points and exposures were way down. Writing
time and stalling remained pretty much constant, and scoring moves
per match went down slightly. Okay, so since you're to
(18:13):
move for time here uh slide seventeen.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Okay, we've discovered the decrease in scoring collegi're wrestling over
the years. So what were the changes in scoring from
twenty twenty three at the D two Championships. You know
we did D one. Now we're going to look at
D two.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Okay, real quick. The methodology if you want to read it,
you can read it on the thing, so we don't
waste a lot of time describing it. But the biggest
difference in D two. We counted all the points with
D one. We didn't count points per match. We're pins,
but I controlled for that later in the show. Okay,
so Kevin nineteen.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So scoring change just twenty three to twenty four. So
in the D one episode, more things change, the more
things they say, the same scoring one up twenty three
almost twenty four percent. How did that relate to what
happened in the D two Championships?
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Okay, the D two Championships, the scoring with up seventeen
percent from slightly over ten points per match to about
eleven and three quarters.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Okay, and points per match D one D two, how
did they compare?
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Okay, how they compare? You can say on slide twenty three. Okay,
we control there of the D two without pins, and
they actually become closer to each other, the D one
and D two as we get the twenty twenty four. Okay,
that point's there. The twelve point three six for D
two eliminates any of the matches that were pins, because
(19:54):
logically you can consider a match that has a pin
will have less points because it doesn't last time minutes
by definition. Okay, we have learned on the past and
current research that D two at higher scoring than D one.
This is not a crazy thing. In twenty twenty three,
(20:17):
SEC football had fifty five and a half points per
game and the NFL had a little over forty three. Okay.
So in other words, as the level of talent gets higher,
it's not unusual for the scoring to get lower. Like
what's lower scoring than World Cup soccer? Right? Okay?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Okay? So D one Championships had a lower points per
match than D two. Not a surprise, the points per
match for lower. This is common in sports as the
talent level increases. We did see a smaller difference in
the two divisions when the takedown was worth three points,
so that might be significant points per match. How how
(21:06):
did the scoring change in the points per match at
the D two Championships?
Speaker 4 (21:11):
Okay, thank you for that question, Kevin. What you can
see here on this slide is these are the points
per match coming from takedowns, back points, reverse writing, stalling. Okay,
After the takedown became worth three points, everything kept in
the same order. Okay, takedown, skate, back, reverse writing, stalling.
The only the biggest thing that changed, of course, was
(21:34):
takedown points per match, not takedowns per match, takedown points
per match and also back points reduced pretty much significantly
there too.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
So can we can we talk about that? Can we
go can we go back and look at that?
Speaker 4 (21:52):
Certainly?
Speaker 2 (21:53):
So, I mean you're looking at takedowns d two points
per match was four point six two and it's now
six point sixty five. That's one takedown, right, really? Or
is that two takedowns now?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
It's still you know, the two point takedown twenty three
versus it's two two and two is four and then
two and three is six.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
So it's one more.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I've still got two takedowns a match, is what we're
two change?
Speaker 2 (22:21):
It's not so it's a delta forty four percent, and
I think we're gonna get to that, but it's it's
no more takedowns.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
What you see here is the points from takedowns have
to increased forty four percent. Then when we go to
the next slide, you can see the percentage of all
the points scored, whether it's from takedown, escape, back points,
et cetera. Takedowns went from forty six percent to fifty
six percent. Once again, that's not a ten percent difference,
(22:54):
that's a twenty three percent difference. That's a huge difference, guys,
in the amount of takedowns points per match. Okay, the
reverse providing time stalling any different escapes at different Okay.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
So you went on your feet, you lose on your feet.
The major difference is the importance of the takedown. In
twenty four, whether it was D one or D two,
twenty three was forty six percent. Now it's fifty six
modern era, the takedown has never been more important. So
(23:37):
difference in scoring D one and D two. We looked
at D two and we looked at D one. You
might think that they're different. Is there any reason to
think that they are so different that the D two
analysis is not applicable to the D one analysis.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Thank you for that, Kevin, because I got a lot
of that feedback from people that thought it might be
so different and stuff like that. But you can see
from slide thirty one they're almost the same darn thing. Okay.
The level of talent is better in division one. Okay, However,
as you can see from the chart there, the screwing
remains almost the same in both of them. Okay.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
Also, I want to bring up two, and I'm sure
you're gonna address this the bracket size. So our data
set for Division two is a little bit smaller than
Division one, mean, just because the number of qualifiers at
the Division two and Division three championships is not thirty
three per weight class, so it's not quite half as
many matches, but it's still a significant number of matches,
(24:39):
especially when you look at them over the year, or
you know, when you look at championship in consolation. But yeah,
the D two and D three brackets are smaller. So
when we look at that, I'd be curious one of
these days and we get to the NAI numbers because
they're up at two hundred and eighty per and to
see if they fit right in the mill or not.
But I'm gonna throw more at Glenn's plate later. But yeah,
just just to be mindful that D two and D
(25:00):
three brackets are smaller than Division one.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (25:04):
The follow up with Jason said, there are three hundred
and forty matches in Division two tournament and six hundred
and forty and Division one, so there's a significant amount more. Okay,
then the scoring categories as a percentage of terms from
the points, since it's almost identical on the points, and
that they're all almost the same there. Okay. What we
(25:26):
found from this is the more divisions change, the more
the sports stays the same. To do a playback on
the title. The more things change, the more they stay
the same.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
The more they change, the more they stays the same.
But we saw more points per match in D two. However,
percentage breakdown scoring there really is. Like you just said,
they're very similar D one and D two. It's very
statistically similar. And I'm gonna be curious, and I know
we're going to talk about this later. And Jason made
(26:01):
a good point. It's half the matches, so let's do
Let's get another year in there, and then we'll have
two or two years and see if that makes the difference.
Is this Is there enough data in one year's tournament
to make that make those points?
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Kevin, there are some big windows with the amount of matches.
Like I said, however, some weird things can happen. We're
gonna need to follow up this thing after twenty twenty
five nationals with the same thing. Might be a good
topic at the convention. Since I won't being the Olympics
next year. Who knows. Okay, now, what we did then,
(26:44):
if you see on slide thirty six the regular decisions,
Major decisions technicals. It compares Division three Division one with
Division two from twenty twenty three and stuff like that.
The big difference there is the there's more pins of
Division two. Okay in that situation, and then in the
(27:06):
twenty twenty four okay, technical falls as we learned in
episode thirty four, just go up through the roof at
Division one. And that's why I say, who knows what
might have happened? I think after twenty twenty five, Kevin
and Jason, we need to do two years prior two
years after study. So it's the same amount, okay. So
(27:30):
the outcome of the matches are very similar. It is
transferable to say I watched Division two, Division one, et cetera.
It's the same game. It's just a higher level of talent. Okay.
Now let's go to slight forty chase it please, Okay.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Takedowns per match, takedown points per match. We learned in
episode thirty four when we're talking about D one, the
huge importance of takedown in twenty four. Now, let's look
at twenty three and twenty four in the D two Championships,
and how does that data compare.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Okay, as you can say on the slide that Jason
is up right now slide forty one. As we discussed before,
the total takedown points went up forty four percent. It
went from four point six to six point six, just
a little bit over two points per match. However, the
number of takedowns per match, as you can see on
slide forty two, okay, had a very small decrease three
(28:34):
point nine percent down. Okay, there were two point three
one takedowns per bout now there's two point two two. Okay.
So the points went up because there's basically the same
amount of takedowns, just a very slight decrease, okay, But
the points just went up because we inflated the points
of those.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
So Glenn, from a statistical standpoint, you know, again for
ideal in the world of statistics all the time, but
the statistician versus an actual statistician, they're different. So it's
also like the nuance the term statistically significant is is
that a statistically significant statistic to say, well, takedowns are down?
(29:18):
I mean, is this something that's like oh you know,
you know, oh no Steles fall we had. We see,
we changed the rules and scoring went down or scoring
went up, but takedowns went down. Is this enough to
make that kind of claim.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
No, it's not statistically significant enough to say the takedowns
went down. They actually went slightly up by about the
same percentage in Division one. To count this, this is
just what we call happen stance and stats. Okay, who
knows what. I had a couple guys that really were
takedown cut them loose type guys that graduated, and then
we had a couple more writing guys this year. It's
(29:52):
basically the same amount of takedowns, okay. So we can
look at this and say there's no difference in the
out of takedowns, even though they were down slightly in
D two and slightly up in D one. What we
can say, okay, from almost a thousand matches each to
each year between Division one Division two combined, okay, is
(30:15):
the points went up and the takedowns remain the same.
So increasing the takedown value had no effect on the
number of takedowns. Okay. So it's you know, I mean,
I'm a laughler, curved guy, you know, being a businessman
for years. I'll get into that in the whole nother show. Okay.
(30:37):
What it does show us, though, is the takedown is
worth more points. Okay, so it's no surprise the guy
that gets the first takedown wins over eighty one percent
of the matches, and there's no takedown in about five
percent of all matches, which is bizarre. Okay, So the
(31:02):
loser only wins thirteen percent of the I mean, the
guy that gets the first takedown on the loser only
gets the first takedown thirteen percent of the time. Now,
as you can see from the next slide, the first
takedown used to be almost twenty percent of all points
in a match. Now it's a little over twenty five.
(31:25):
So it went from one fifth to one quarter of
all the points. So if I score right away on
a takedown, I got one quarter of all the points
and basically the average match. Okay, that's a pretty good
significance to say you're going to win. Now. As a coach,
I always wanted my guy to get the first takedown
and the second one in the third one. So it's
(31:47):
not like you're saying, oh, get that first takedown, you're
going to coach out anyway, But it's a hell of
a lot more important, and it could change the strategy
of matches in the future.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
I so, to sum it up, more takedown points to
the men's NCAA D two championships, and we saw in
twenty three. However, slightly less takedowns in twenty four than
we saw on twenty So more points, less takedowns, but
as we talked about, not significantly different, but the importance
(32:23):
of the first takedown increased. Five. That's that's a that
is significant. Maybe not statistically, but it seems to be.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
No that is statistically important.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
That is wiping the hair that might still be there,
your pears to be Kevin.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Okay, finished with takedowns, let's talk about escapes and reversals.
How much of a change were they're here, So takedowns
went down slightly? What about escapes and reversals?
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Okay, And once again I can't emphasize this enough. In
just two years, we really don't know enough to really
bang the drum, but we know enough to slightly bang
the drum. Okay. Escapes are relatively constant from twenty three
to twenty four, two point three one to two point
five to one, and of course escapes are worth one point,
(33:19):
so we know that's how many escapes were there, not
just points of escapes, but escapes. Okay. The reversal points
per match decrease twenty one percent from point seven points
per match to point five five. Okay, so I did
a little digging deep into this. The number of escapes
(33:42):
and reversals are relatively the same, okay. If you add
them up, you had two point sixty six reversals and
escapes in twenty three, two point seventy nine and twenty four.
That comes out to points per match, okay, of three
point one on slide fifty three point one and twenty
(34:05):
three and three point six and twenty four. So the
total way of getting out from the bottom, whether it's
an escape or reversal, totals up to the same amount
of points. But what we do see is less reversals
and slightly more escapes. Who knows if this is a
strategy thing. You know, if I know, if I think
(34:28):
I could take you down, I'll get three points out
of that. It's a little bit difficult to say. The
thing now, we saw the same amount of action and
the same scoring, but a slightly different way to get there.
The eyeball probably could not tell the difference when you
went to tournament in twenty four, and remember back to
twenty three. You know, the human brain is fallible. You know, hell,
(34:53):
I thought Jeremy Prut was going to be a good coach.
So you're talking about the human brain being fallible.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Is this another Tennessee reference, Glenn.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Yeah, he's been fired.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
I'm I'm making a note of that so I can
cut it out of the show.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
He's been fired for good reason.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
Okay, all right, So in escape reversals, I mean just
it's all there. But basically there's no difference in the
total escapes reversals with the new scoring, the total the
points correct. Kevin, Now, backpoints and exposures. How is there
(35:41):
a big choint change in back points between twenty three
and twenty.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
Four, Yes, there are, Kevin, back points per match dropped
almost thirty one percent, from one point seventy five to
one point two one. Now you look at that and
it's just, oh it's only a half point per match.
That is a big difference, guys, that is a significant difference. Okay.
And the winners back points dropped drastically, you know, for
(36:10):
whatever reason. Okay, Now, if you want to do a
deep dive into the exposure times and wrestler's been on
his back. What we did was we added up to
near fall two, near fall three, near fall four, and pins.
Obviously the word no near fall three scoring rules in
twenty three, but you would either get a two or
four point or then and the number of pin because
(36:33):
if you pin somebody, you don't get back points. So
you have to have this all up to get a
total number of exposures. What we see there is a
lot of numbers on slide fifty six that I'll sum
up for people aren't all stats crazy like me, and
show you the exposure per match went from almost zero
(36:53):
point seven per match to a little less than point five.
And see this on slide fifty seven. That is a
decrease of thirty percent.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Okay, I think I think also interesting there is and
I'd like to find out why they put in a
three point back point if you go look, there was
almost none. I mean, if you've got a guy, if
you know, you get a two point tilt or something,
I get it. But you're holding more than two, you're
usually gonna get for so it was just a minute difference.
(37:27):
Uh you know, yeah, you know, many pointssures and.
Speaker 4 (37:32):
Near faur three per match zero point zero four, So
that rule change affected nothing.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
So you're either getting the getting the cheap, getting the
two and then readjusting maybe trying to roll through or
two more, or you've got something that's gonna get four exactly.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
And I was, and I was curious as to why
they put a three in, and I was really curious
to see what Glenn came up with if there were
a lot of it, and there weren't. So it doesn't
seem to make a lot of sense. That might be
one that goes away after what.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
I don't think it, you know, yeah, yeah, it may
not make a lot of sense. I don't think it's detrimental.
I don't think Oh no, I don't think it's harmful.
I don't. I see no point now taking it away
now that it's there. I didn't see the what what
I think what of some of us feared now granted
with you know, give coaches time to game rules, because
(38:22):
that's what happens, But the difference is, I'm not I
didn't see as many challenges that we could see, like
oh I want I want three not four to slow
down a match or four not three. I didn't see
a ton of that throughout the course of the season
last year, and no, granted, my my viewpoint was was
thenis the D the D three's the D one s
(38:44):
And again at the tournaments, I'm not paying super close attention,
but dual meets at St. Cloud State, duel meets at Augsburg,
duel meets at Little Rock. So I didn't see a
lot of that, I don't think. I don't know if
I saw it at all, off the top of my head,
So not saying it didn't happen. But again, the three
point ear fall, I think is okay, cool, you get
you turn them for two, three or four. Good, you're
(39:07):
getting points. So I'm fine with it being where it is.
That is my matt opinion.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
Here.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Let me show us up for you real quick. At
the near fall three. If you have zero points, zero
four points per match with the thing, okay, we're near
fall three. Off the top of my head, that's probably
like thirteen fourteen times it happened in Division twos. Okay,
So the odds that somebody won by one point because
they had a near fall three instead of two is
basically zero, So it probably affected nothing. So we're spending
(39:39):
enough time discussing the near fall three.
Speaker 3 (39:41):
Yeah, legislating the outlier something that. Yeah, the sport has
done too much my opinion anyway.
Speaker 4 (39:50):
Yeah, if you want me to, I'll look back and
see if it affected any match at all. Not doing
this show, I'm not looking back. Okay. So Matt Status
is very concerned about the decrease of exposures from twenty
three to twenty four. Okay, it's a two year window.
Might not really be enough. Okay, we will follow this up.
(40:12):
Like as I said, there are three hundred forty matches
in Division two and six forty in Division one, so
that's not a small window. But one year to the
next is it a trend or anomaly? Only time will tell. Okay,
I'll use one of the bestnologies in America's game, baseball.
There was a guy named Toughie Rhoades who had three
(40:35):
home runs and his first three at bats one day
at Wrigley Field, an opening day only major league player
ever to do that. He only had fifty four at
bats before that, only played in twenty major league games.
He only hit eight home runs the rest of his career,
but for that one day, nobody was better than toughe
(40:56):
Roads on opening Day, so that clearly is a much
smaller the opening day. But there's been so many opening
day games yet Toughee stands alone on that.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
I'm just trying to think, that's not a that's in
my era of it. It's not a name I remember.
I remember Bill Spears hitting three on opening Day for
the Brewers one time, and like, man, he's on pace
to hit how many he's gonna break? He's gonna be
better than Cecil Fielder.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
Yeah, yeah for six, Yeah for six?
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Yeah. So go ahead, Kevin, So sum that up. There
is a decrease and a total of backpoints, and we're
gonna watch it for in the coming years to see
if that it was an anomaly this year or whether
that's a that's a trend. And who can say whether
that was because there was, you know, the change in
(41:50):
the takedown rule right now, the penalties. What about difference
in in uh, you know, writing time, stalling and penalties.
What do we see there, Glennon.
Speaker 4 (42:04):
Okay, thank you. We'll start with writing time and then
we'll get into us. If you didn't notice, Jason was
pointing the stalling call of people. Okay. The writing time
points per match remained relatively constant point three to nine
to point four to two. Once again, this went up,
but it's the same thing. It's not it's a significant
difference at all. Now let's go into stalling. Okay, Stalling
(42:32):
and penalty points went up twenty eight percent. Okay, from
one year to the next. Now they're low numbers, point
three to two points per match to point four to one.
So when you get low numbers, a couple things can
can can sway that. So that's why it's interesting. We
have to do that you know, two year window on
each side of this rule to see if this is
(42:53):
affecting it. The interesting part about this the winner's points
are constant for stalling, but the loser's points went up,
which leads someone to believe, uh, you know, the guy
that's winning the match is stalling more. Now, I was
asked by a couple people, including the big boss of
the nw c A, to do a show one time
(43:14):
to dig deeper into stalling. We will have a future
show where we dig deeper into the stalling. When it happened,
who gets hit, what the score was, et cetera. Okay,
stalling is an interesting call because it's really the only
opinion scoring move in wrestling, you know, it's it's an
(43:38):
opinion thing, whether somebody is stalling or not, you.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
Know, but technically, you know, technically eric a fall is
is a judgment call. But I mean, you know, in opinion,
I shoulders down the match. There's there's something to back,
there's something to validate it. There's a visual validation. And
you say, oh, yep, two, there's the scapula, the one slap.
(44:04):
That's I mean, yes, technically it's your judgment, make the call,
since you cannot challenge a fall because it's a judgment call.
But yeah, just giving you that technicality technically anyway, yeah, Chase.
Speaker 4 (44:17):
My yeah, I agree with you that technically everything's an opinion, right, but.
Speaker 3 (44:23):
I'm sure, well, being good, that's that's technically an opinion,
it's not correct in fact.
Speaker 4 (44:29):
Statistically, statistically it is a fact as now as you
mentioned that after three games they have an sec all
type record for scoring margin.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Is guys, I'm sorry for this. I'm sorry, I'm sorry
viewers and listeners.
Speaker 4 (44:46):
Is statistically significant sixty points.
Speaker 3 (44:49):
Again that out of the show too.
Speaker 2 (44:52):
But there is a good point, there is a good
point in the stalling. They did make it more codified
the five second on the ankles, you know, and they
count and and I think in twenty five that's gonna
they've made that five second rule pretty much everywhere. So
that's gonna be interesting to see how that affects stalling
(45:13):
and penalty points. So it wasn't just takedowns. It was
you know, it's not as subjective now you watch them.
The ref's counting. That was one.
Speaker 3 (45:23):
They're counting everything. They've They've made the referee do so
much during a match, that's like, that's one thing we
could get the uh, get McCormick on here one of
these shows and say, hey, oh yeah, what's it like
now for a referee to like you got to count here,
you got to count here, you got to count here,
you gotta counted five hands counting. I was told this
is wrestling. I was told there would be no math
(45:45):
as we're on a show with math.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
All right, So we've we've talked about pretty much everything.
What about scoring moves, So that's what you know, you know,
we're looking for falls, we're looking for score moves. How
increase or decreased? You know, what are the difference of
the two point or three point takedowns create and scoring moves.
Speaker 4 (46:10):
Okay, the scoring moves went down very slightly. They went
down a little bit over two percent. Now, once again
there's levels of degrees of going up and down. When
it's such a small thing, it's basically statistically constant. Okay.
The point of this whole slide here is to see
how many scoring moves there were per match, and this
(46:33):
would be a good quiz to ask people and see
what number they come up with. It's five point five
to a little bit under five point four and twenty four.
So that's how many scoring moves you get per match.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
Now, and Glen Glenn, when you guys, when you're breaking
down the numbers that FIPS and Hazard put together, when
you say scoring move, you mean a takedown, escape, you
mean everything we just talked about. Takedown, escape, a near fall, four,
a near fall two, so in that match. So if
that's four scoring moves, correct, yes, it cats just just
to clarify what a scoring move is, it's not, well
(47:08):
it's only you know, only a takedown or you know,
if you've got four takedowns, four scoring moves. If you've
got an escape is a scoring move because it puts
point on the board. A stall Technically, as we said
in the last slides, stall and penalty points are scoring moves.
So whether that's a two point move, a one point move,
a three point move, or a four point move, that's
what we're discussing.
Speaker 4 (47:27):
Correct, correct, Jason, thank you for that clarification. It's everything
but writing time installing, because writing time is not a
scoring move. You get that over time.
Speaker 3 (47:36):
Okay, I hate writing time, but that's another mad opinion.
Speaker 4 (47:40):
Okay, So guys, what I'm trying to say here with
the scoring moves, since that is like the piece to
resistance of things, is we increased the number of points
for a takedown, it had no effect on the amount
of scoring moves.
Speaker 2 (48:00):
Points went up, moves didn't correct all right, unintended consequences.
So what we just said on that last line, does
this follow the law of unintended consequences? Could it affect
our sport in the way that was never intended?
Speaker 4 (48:20):
Sure? This could over the only time will tell this,
Kevin and Jason, whether it's really whether something's been affected
right now, definitely, the pins in the back points have
a big difference from twenty three to twenty four. Okay,
we'll know more about this after a second year analysis
of it. Okay, but there is a possibility that this
(48:43):
changes the sport in some way that was never intended. Okay,
our sport could be changing right before our eyes. We
will explore more of this in part three. The topic
on the show is it bad? Do the fans want this?
I don't know this. This is a thing where you know,
(49:05):
as a stats guy, I'm not a real Oh the
eyeball test. I think pretty much everyone in the William
Mary Sweet were walking around Nationals last year said there
was much more action because of the takedown rule. Well
guess what, guys, there was it? Okay, so uh, you
know it's uh, we have opinions that we come up
(49:26):
with him.
Speaker 2 (49:26):
Somehow, it changing more than you realize in a year.
And you know, I went back and checked because back
in the early sixties it was either sixty one or
sixty two. They changed the rule. There were so many takedowns.
(49:49):
Coaches got together and they made a change where first
takedown was worth two points and every other one was
worth a point. I think it was either it was
either sixty one or sixty two. And then in sixty
six they said we can't just wrestle on our feet.
We got to keep matt wrestling as part of the sport,
and I think there are people that agree with that.
So this may be something that maybe the pendulum swings
(50:12):
that might change back sometime in the future.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
Yes, Kevin, it definitely could.
Speaker 2 (50:18):
Who knows, all right, with the large changes the number
of tech balls and pins, should we do an even
deeper dive voice per minute and what about should we
cover that next time?
Speaker 4 (50:33):
Yes, Kevin, I think we should cover that next time,
and that's going to involve you in fifty doing a
lot more work. Thank you for requesting that.
Speaker 2 (50:42):
Not a problem. I like going back through.
Speaker 4 (50:45):
Yeah, Jason topped out.
Speaker 3 (50:49):
My thumbs on the table, my fingers on my nose.
I said, not it. I'm out on all three of those.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Okay, all right, keV notes one hundred and fifty one
for your collegiate win Wins wrestling teams, and that's just
gonna keep rolling. D two points per match. I was
gonna say points per minute, points per match seventeen percent
twenty three to twenty four. D one had a twenty
(51:15):
three percent increase in the same time period when controlling
for pins. D two became much closer to the points
per match to D one, so it and again that
may be an anomaly, but they they really tightened up
the difference. Takedowns were significantly more important than the D
(51:36):
two to twenty twenty four, attorney points per match went
up slightly more than two point or forty four percent increase.
Takedowns fifty six percent of all points in the matches
in twenty twenty four as compared to forty percent. Coaches
(51:56):
spend more time on your feet. The difference between attorney
scoring and the D one and D two was not significant.
The percentage difference in regular decisions between D one and
D two got much closer, and twenty four over twenty
three significantly more takedown points from match in twenty four,
but the number of takedowns decreased very slightly. That basically
(52:20):
it's there. They stayed the same, pins dropped as it exposures,
and we're gonna look at more years of data to
see if this is significant. Points per match D one
and D two are up. Scoring moves per match pretty
much stayed the same, and from this it's hard to
say that the new rule created more action.
Speaker 4 (52:44):
Yeah, thank you for shutting that up, Kevin. Next next
month show is part three of the more things change,
the more they say the same. We're gonna dive deeper
into this thing, even do it, permit it, just to
make sure people can we could say what action really
is happening for the amount of time and stuff. I
personally think this is the biggest rule change in my
(53:07):
lifetime in our sport, and it deserves a lot of
attention from Matt's Stats anything else, Jason Kevin anything enclosing
about this show?
Speaker 2 (53:18):
No, I agree. I think it really it's a huge change,
and I think, I really think when as coaches get
more attuned to that change and they start to change
how they run their practices, we may see difference. We
may see more scoring moves or I know. I talked
(53:40):
to a couple officials. They thought it would mean less
scoring moves and they were not surprised when they saw
that stat.
Speaker 3 (53:50):
To piggyback on what Kevin said there, I think I
did feel like some of the doomsday how are we
you know, how are we going to game this? Before
we even get onto it is the action stepping out
of people taking the taking the point to step out
of bounds, to give up the stall rather than give
up a three point takedown. Now we're gonna get. We
get some of that. It's all situational, but it the
(54:11):
the negative impact that was feared has not been realized.
I still again, one year we got to get you know,
I'm not saying we got to give our coaches time
to game it. But every major rule change and every
every every rule change in sport that I've been around
wrestling in the last twenty five years has had again
that unintended consequence that we had talked about on a
previous slide. So I'm waiting for that shoe to drop.
(54:33):
Whether it's a whether it's a boot, or whether it's
a slipper. The impact is still yet to be seen.
So that's something I'm going I've had a wait and see.
I was pleasantly surprised. Dare I say I was slightly
wrong in my expectation of how this was going to
get gamed immediately. It hasn't. It wasn't gamed immediately, probably
because situations were hitting coaches and teams for the first time.
(54:54):
So the more we get more and more they get
reps in those situations. I think that's what could lead
to any potential drawbacks. But right now, eye test. Like
I said, this show is not about the eye test.
I felt, you know, the action was there, maybe the
scoring may not have been a more scoring doesn't mean
action and scoring or not, you know, mutually exclusive, So
(55:17):
you can have more action with less scoring. You could
have more you know, we could get down to the
metrics of a shot attempts per match? Is that up?
You know those There's so many different nuances to to
when we look at the data. Which is what makes
this show fun for me is well, it's it's great
talking points. This is a great bar discussion. This is
a great sweet discussion. This is a great in the
(55:38):
stands in the lower bowl and round one discussion about
the previous year. This is all these things that it's
it's always weight and see too, you know, because as
we say, lies damn lies and statistics. So to that point, again,
it's a wait and see. I'm curious to see what's
going to happen year two of this rule. I'm excited
because again optically I felt the there are you're gonna
(55:59):
get your one one snoozers, it's gonna happen. Kids aren't
gonna want to open up, or they're just so evenly
matched that they're stopping each other. So uh, you know,
sometimes a one one match can be exciting even if
there's just two scoring moves per match. So interesting to
keep keep in mind. So, like I said, I'm I've
become more of a uh wait and see on this
(56:19):
than I have. I don't know if I like this
too much. So that's where I said.
Speaker 2 (56:25):
I got I got one more quick thing to say, Gorms.
We have to have a slide next month that says
is it a boot or is it a slipper? Because
I really like that. That was very good.
Speaker 3 (56:36):
Oh, I just can't. I just popped my head. I
might have heard that it is it a Doc Martin
or is it a dunk? I don't know. Give them
the boot, give them the slipper. Hit me with a shoe?
What was it a boot? Was it a slipper? I
don't know who tows a shoe? Really, I'm gonna ruin that.
I'm gonna ruin that before you even get to use
it next show. That's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (56:57):
Okay, Well, anyway, to all the viewers, we hope you
enjoyed this and learned something about the new bole and
the effect on the sport. We will see you next
month with more about takedowns on behalf of my fellow
co host Jason Bryant and Kevin Hawzard. I'm Glenning Gormley.
See you next month.
Statistics. They can mean many things. It can be a
batting average, a win percentage, correlations, and standard deviation.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
But numbers aren't just for nerds.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
In life, decisions need data. In wrestling decisions, projections and
hypotheticals also need data. Here on matt Stats, we take
historical data, theories, and statistics and apply it to the
world's oldest and greatest sport. Now to your trio of
numerical nerd balls, Glenn Gormley, Kevin Hazard, and Jason Bryant.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Episode thirty six of the mat Stats Show, back at
you after a little break post convention, post Olympics, Kevin
Hazard and Glenn Gormley here with me. I'm your host,
Jason Bryant. Today we're going to keep diving into the
world of the three point Takedown. Like we did in the
last episode, We're going to keep going. Today we're going
to go with the Division two world. But before we
(01:01):
get to that, we got some convention recaps from our
from our Grand Puba and our assaultan of stat Here Glenn, Kevin,
you guys got to spend the end of July down
in Florida. Apparently that place is pretty good with the
golf I know, I'm horrible at the golf. Did you
guys have a chance to hit the links at all?
Or was it all wrestling discussion and Glenn bragging about
(01:23):
his valls.
Speaker 4 (01:25):
Yeah, it's I've golfed there twice before, but not this time.
When I was down there, I just spent a whole
week talking wrestling in the balls. That's about all I did.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Well, we did, we did that, and then you know,
we also we set up a booth. But it was
it was fun. I got to see a lot of people,
and it's always good you go to a convention. It's
kind of like the NCAA's because you see so many
people that you don't get to see during the rest
of the year. And that was so that was fun.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
So but is it like it's not like the suite,
because I got to feel the level of sobriety for
many people that go to the convention significantly lower than no, well,
unless you're out on the course, you know, playing for
skins or something like that. But we did a live show,
a game day type of thing down at the convention.
Had a good time with that before I shipped out
(02:19):
to Paris, which I can actually talk about now because
full disclosure. There is this such thing as a non
disclosure agreement with some of these Olympic contracts. So while
many people knew what my role there was going to be,
I could not come out and exactly say what I
was doing. But that was my third time as the
English announcer for the Olympic Games. My first one I'd
(02:41):
went to was in London back in twenty twelve as
part of the USA Wrestling's media staff. Twenty sixteen, I
announced in Rio, twenty twenty one, announced in Tokyo, twenty
twenty four, announced in Paris. Not just that, but a
little little nerdery came through. It had, you know, the
best man of my wedding, Nate schi He wrestled at
Frank and a Marshall, him and his wife. We're out
there with some other friends, you know, Brian Stole, the
(03:02):
head coach at del Barton, his wife, our buddy Nick
Frost out in Arizona. So it was a crew of
us that after we got done with Paris, we went
to Munich and spent a couple of days down in Munich,
went up to the top of the zoog Spits of
the highest mountain in Germany, and then had you could
actually walk across a little like footbridge. It wasn't like
hanging over a mountain or anything. Into Austria. You get
(03:24):
your passport stamp. But gentlemen, there were beer gardens at
the top of a mountain. We drank it the highest
beer garden in the world and it was quite amazing.
And then the kicker to all of it, we all
went to see Adele on the fourteenth of August. Eighty
thousand people. See. It was like Lallapalooza with one act.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
It was amazing.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
It was cool to share the Olympic experience with the
wife and then do like adult things outside of the country,
like the beer gardens were. I was like, man, I
could just just do this thing. October Fest is right
here on our calendar right now, you know, third weekend
of September goes on for three weekends. Traditionally. It's like, man,
I need to go to Munich more because that was
just an awesome trip. So I had a chance to
(04:06):
see the women win two gold medals announced you know,
you know. Have the cool thing for me was again
my wife getting the opportunity to come to the Olympics
and she doesn't travel with me on on work trips,
wrestling trip, so we got to spend some time on
a work trip together and not think about work afterwards.
So that was a cool thing. And then with some
some good friends as well, so wrestling friends, because we're
all wrestling people and the wives had to tolerate us.
(04:28):
I guess that was the way it was. But once
the wrestling was over, that that toleration was okay. So
that was that was my Olympic trip. You guys had
the beach and golf. I had steamy Paris. It was
a little warm over there at the base of the
Eiffel Tower and and and you know, Sarah Hildebrant, I
meant a lore winning goals for Team USA and other
medals across the board on men's women's freestyle. So that
(04:50):
was that was my trip. I enjoyed that immensely.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
So how about Paris? What did you I heard in
universe what about Paris? I've never been, and it just
it looks like such a gorgeous town and all the
you know, the romance comedies are set there, and it
just seemed like a great place to bring your wife.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
It was.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
It was really cool. I mean, we went back the
last day after we flew out of Paris, so we
went back and then I ate at a restaurant fifty
six story fifty three fifty six stories up with the
Eiffel Tower in the background. So yeah, there's there's the
food scene that goes with that whole h Yeah, it
is a good place to bring a life. I loved
about it is the transportation was great. That the metro
system was really easy to use. With any European city,
(05:34):
you're going to get that, you know. That's it's still
one of those smoking countries, so you're gonna get the
cigarette smoke like you do and in a lot of
places in Europe anyway. So that was That's the only
negative thing I can I can say about the trip
was Okay, I I not a fan of cigarettes, so
that's and that's you know, that is what it is.
You're just gonna experience that. I mean, there's places in
(05:55):
the States you're gonna deal with that or bape smoke whatever.
So that's not a knock on the city itself by
any stretch.
Speaker 2 (06:01):
It was. It was really cool.
Speaker 3 (06:03):
I had a chance to hit a tap room or
two and then watch some sports. I got into judo
for a day check some of that out. The French
loved judo. Beach volleyball was right next door, so I
walked in, so a little bit of that. And then
another cool thing about it is the send runs right
through it, and wrestling had its hospitality house, like there's
like you know Team USA House and you know all
those houses, Well, wrestling had one, and I was on
(06:24):
a restaurant like riverboat right at the base of the
Eiffel Tower. So also had the opportunity to interview some
of every Olympic champions from across the world at the
base of the Eiffel Tower. With that, So France's definitely.
The food is tremendous. You know, it's very walkable in
a lot of places. I mean it's big. It's a
sprawling city, so it's you know, from one side to
(06:46):
the next stick and take an hour and twenty minutes
to get across up it. Some train trips are like
thirty forty minutes. So Paris did a great job. They
did a great job hosting World Championship in twenty seventeen,
so I had no worries that they were going to
do a great job. I had a great production team
to work with Hobby Senz who was my producer in Tokyo,
and his team did a great job. So it was
just really it's really low key. I really wasn't really
(07:06):
nervous at all. But as far as the city goes,
it was, uh, it was. It was excellent. I would
I would go back to Paris again without question.
Speaker 4 (07:14):
Nice to hear and you did a great job, Jason too.
I enjoyed watching it and hearing you. You did a
great job.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
That is pretty that I gotta say from my advantae point, Yeah,
it is cool to go back and watch stuff like
that's a metal ceremony.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
Cool.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
I geek out over a NCA's. But you know, it's
uh doing the Olympics once every four years. I'm just
fortunate enough to have that gig. So as long as
it by saying something stupid, which as long as you
don't got you guys, don't course me into saying something
stupid on this show.
Speaker 4 (07:40):
I think I'm good.
Speaker 3 (07:41):
I think I'm Goody it was I'm worried about you guys.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
Yeah, Jason, I have to say I'm still liking the haircut.
Speaker 3 (07:50):
It's bit say July, June, July, August, Yeah, this is
my fourth month. I'm yeah, I'm that guy. Yeah, I'm
that guy.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, it looks good on you.
Speaker 3 (08:02):
Jack on the shine. Now in the studio, though, I
got to do everything I'd spend all this time like
worried about the shine here. Now it's I'm going to
change the lighting in here a little bit and it's
going to be there, so I get used to the
brain waves.
Speaker 4 (08:14):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (08:15):
Now, I just got to make sure it just doesn't
look you know, I don't know, make it some that
powder like when you know, no, I'm not gonna wear
makeup for this show.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Come on. I do remember, and it's been a couple
of decades being in the studio and we went to
break and they came out with a big powder puff
and hit the top of my head. I thought, I
must be.
Speaker 3 (08:35):
Was this when you were doing Matt Time? Was this
Matt Time?
Speaker 2 (08:39):
Yeah? Wow?
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Yeah, it's an old, old throwback to the old late
nineties Kevin Hazard Matt. I remember read Landry from the
Prep Page was a guest on that show at You
one time, Yes, a long time ago. At the time
him and I were both in both Yeah, I think
he was in high school when he started the Prep page.
And I was just first year college when I started Matt.
So anyway, we're getting sidetracked. We are all right, We've
(09:03):
got a lot of stats to talk about. We got
a lot of stats to discuss. So without any further ado,
we're gonna switch over to our display here. And as
we've kept on to it, Glenn, the more things change,
the more things stay the same. Part two of three.
And we also if you're watching, which we do encourage
(09:23):
you to watch, we have the slide show that accompanies this.
Each show is on Matt Talk online dot com. It's
on NDBCA online dot com. We have it on the
video on NBC online dot com. Your audio on any
podcast app of choice, your choice, whether it be Apple
Podcasts or whether it be on a spreaker, whether it
be on Spotify. You know where to find if you're
(09:44):
listening to us to the podcast, you've already got this,
but Matt Talk online dot com, NBC online dot Com.
We'll have the accompanying slideshow to go with it. And Glenn,
we did something a little new to help it help
help the people out this week.
Speaker 4 (09:57):
Yes, we did a little something new here. We're gonna
have what's called in episode. Uh, and if you're trying
to go back or find some stuff specifically, we have
what a lot of people call table contents, we call
it in this episode, and you can go to the
slide in case you're looking to see there. Okay. So
another thing that we did here is some people were
(10:20):
asking me at the convention why do we do this show?
They were asking me and Kevin when we were there
live and it basically Mike Moore, of course, the ED
of the NWCA, approached us and he wants to have
a library statistical analysis for the NWCA, And as Jason
just mentioned, you can go back on Matt Talk on
NWCA and find the stuff. So that's basically why we're
(10:41):
doing this. And then we have our normal stuff. You know,
I feel like a number, okay, because this is a
show about numbers, okay, and then what we derive from them.
And then of course the most famous phone number ever,
Danny's Glass at your Tale Virginia eight six seventy five
three oh nine.
Speaker 3 (10:58):
We gotta tell you, I gotta call him up at
least put a logo on their page here for one episode,
like hey, we'll give you. I don't know, maybe we
gotta we gotta get them some I don't know what
anybody down there need need some autoglass. They also do
some race car stuff. Anyway, we gotta find a way
to work that deal.
Speaker 4 (11:13):
If you're in the Peninsula and you need your glass
done on your car, Danny's glass is the guy to
do it.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
We need to clip that and send it to him.
Be like, look what we were doing for you guys.
We've been doing this for like two years with these guys.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
And he's gonna say, I wondered why I had that
big uptick. Yes, third week of the month every year,
all these wrestlers. Ye.
Speaker 4 (11:33):
Okay, So of course, the expended opinions express of the
show do not necessarily reflect any policies or opinions of
the nw c A. And just so everybody knows, doesn't
mean that Gorms, Jason and Kevin agree on everything here. Okay,
just because I say something, don't hang it on Kevin
and Jason, you know, the same way vice versa. Okay,
(11:56):
Matt status is based on numbers and stats and analyzing them.
It's not based on opinions. Okay, it's facts, not opinions.
Just who everybody knows it revolves around the status as
we always talk about. Now, we'd like to start out
this show too, as is on slide nine here, and
give everyone how many four year college teams are men
(12:19):
and women NCAA and n ai A. As of eight
thirty one of this year, there was five hundred and eleven.
Keep it going, guys, you know, let's get this thing
up to as big as number as we can. It's
great for the sport.
Speaker 3 (12:35):
Yeah, eight thirty one is the ballpark number here, although
we're in the September as we're recording this particular episode.
But yeah, we've had a couple of new programs Jersey
and Kane Universities added to We've got another one, Thick
Spaulding's about to come on board. We've got a Division
two I think that's coming on board soon. That one
has yet to be announced. By the time you watch
the show, it might be announced. So we've got programs
(12:57):
are just still every show, this number goes up again.
That's the that's the Matt fact on the Matt Status.
The growth of college wrestling is still happening, and it's
also happening at the high school levels too. With I'm
in the middle of some projects working on girls high
school wrestling numbers going back to nineteen ninety nine, when
in nineteen ninety eight when Hawaii first sanction, nineteen ninety
(13:17):
nine went Texas. So we're gonna have Glenn doesn't know
this yet, I'm dropping the bomb on him now, but
we're gonna have. We're gonna have some some high school
girl statistics to look at, because now you know one
of those forties number. Now it's a question like which
states don't have it versus what states do have it?
And that's that's a good thing to do. And that's
also going to help the college the growth of college
programs when you get that critical mass of athletes. I
(13:38):
always said when they were adding these many programs, it's
that you need your second class of high school kids
to go through to really see the rise on the
girls side of wrestling. And that's that's gonna basically trickle
up to the women's college wrestling thing. Of course, with
emerging sports status, we're close to gonna be close to
a championship, maybe as soon as next year. On the
NCAA level. The NAI already got it, the n JCA
(13:59):
already has it, the NA has been doing it for
a while so that's where we're at there, so a
little little foreshadowing on our programs page. This is like
my favorite part of the show is the programs page.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Well, and you talk about women's wrestling, Well, what a segue?
Have one hundred and fifty one four year college teams.
So that's a you know, that's up, It's keeps going up,
and it really is become a really integral part of
collegiate wrestling. I don't I really believe, like the slide says,
(14:33):
we wouldn't see the growth in men's wrestling right now
without the growth in women's wrestling.
Speaker 4 (14:40):
Agreed, Okay, guys, Jason Kevin mentioned about the convention we
were just at recently. I just wanted to give a
big shout out to Mike, Jackie, Dan Curry, Nate Jim,
Stephanie Beth and Dave, Paul Cassandra and all the other interns.
I think they do a fantastic job. Just everybody knows,
since this is a stat show, the four largest NWCA
(15:05):
conventions ever were the last four, you know, because there
was a COVID situation there, so it's not the last
four years. But that's a pretty impressive thing. And way
back when, before electricity, I used to be an assistant
coach in college and we didn't even hear talk of
the NWCA convention then. Now I won't miss it. You know,
(15:25):
it's fantastic. So guys, keep up a great job. And
I mean, it was just a fantastic job by Miking
his entire staff.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Can't you haven't if you haven't been go and let's
let's talk about the convention just a little bit. We
did make some predictions and Glenn, how did your predictions
do not as well.
Speaker 4 (15:45):
As Kevin's did in the Olympics. Okay, so I'm the
Sultan of stat I'm not the guru of predictions by
any means. Okay, Uh, I picked a guy that wont
to Bron's kept picked the guy that won a silver,
So Kevin beat me out. We both predicted a woman
to win the same woman to win the gold. So
Kevin definitely wins the the he wins the Chris Berman
(16:08):
Award for Power.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
Yeah, Kevin, speaking of poo Bob power. He is loving retirement.
You see this shirt for those watching that's got the
most retired shirt. Got a beach shirt on. Ever, this
guy is just loving as Delaware beach life. It's just
if I would wear that at my age, I would
be mocked heavily. Your age, you are applauded for it.
(16:33):
So I applaud you, sir, for your haircut and your
Actually I might wear that shirt just just to annoy
my wife.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
It's a good it's a great color. Good color for you, Jason.
Speaker 4 (16:41):
I should have warned a wine shirt for you. Kevin,
if I know and you were going to sport that you.
Speaker 3 (16:45):
Wear too many loud, obnoxious things anyway, and that's that's
that doesn't count the ball stuff anyway.
Speaker 4 (16:51):
Anyway, Oh I am loud and obnoxious.
Speaker 3 (16:53):
Like well, talking about barrying the lead. We we've got
to get to We've got we've got a lot of
a lot of a lot of content to get through here. So, Glenn,
the goal of this speed down sixty four on.
Speaker 4 (17:02):
This Okay, the goal of this episode is to see
how the three point takedown has affected our sport.
Speaker 2 (17:12):
Okay, twenty twenty four, they changed it to three points,
the biggest scoring change, you know, since in a long
long time. It's it's so we've now been looking at it,
and Glenn, what did we learn from our study?
Speaker 4 (17:28):
Okay, Well, first, of all Housard and fifty did all
this research. Wanted to give him a shout out. So
what we learned here, Okay, we're trying something new. We're
going to give you guys a taste of what's coming
up and then review it, then suburb and then analyze it,
then review it. Okay, we saw more points per match.
(17:50):
The D one and D two were similar. We saw
a small decrease of the number of takedowns per match.
Escapes went up, reversals went down. The totals were about
to say back points and exposures were way down. Writing
time and stalling remained pretty much constant, and scoring moves
per match went down slightly. Okay, so since you're to
(18:13):
move for time here uh slide seventeen.
Speaker 2 (18:20):
Okay, we've discovered the decrease in scoring collegi're wrestling over
the years. So what were the changes in scoring from
twenty twenty three at the D two Championships. You know
we did D one. Now we're going to look at
D two.
Speaker 4 (18:34):
Okay, real quick. The methodology if you want to read it,
you can read it on the thing, so we don't
waste a lot of time describing it. But the biggest
difference in D two. We counted all the points with
D one. We didn't count points per match. We're pins,
but I controlled for that later in the show. Okay,
so Kevin nineteen.
Speaker 2 (18:58):
So scoring change just twenty three to twenty four. So
in the D one episode, more things change, the more
things they say, the same scoring one up twenty three
almost twenty four percent. How did that relate to what
happened in the D two Championships?
Speaker 4 (19:15):
Okay, the D two Championships, the scoring with up seventeen
percent from slightly over ten points per match to about
eleven and three quarters.
Speaker 2 (19:24):
Okay, and points per match D one D two, how
did they compare?
Speaker 4 (19:33):
Okay, how they compare? You can say on slide twenty three. Okay,
we control there of the D two without pins, and
they actually become closer to each other, the D one
and D two as we get the twenty twenty four. Okay,
that point's there. The twelve point three six for D
two eliminates any of the matches that were pins, because
(19:54):
logically you can consider a match that has a pin
will have less points because it doesn't last time minutes
by definition. Okay, we have learned on the past and
current research that D two at higher scoring than D one.
This is not a crazy thing. In twenty twenty three,
(20:17):
SEC football had fifty five and a half points per
game and the NFL had a little over forty three. Okay.
So in other words, as the level of talent gets higher,
it's not unusual for the scoring to get lower. Like
what's lower scoring than World Cup soccer? Right? Okay?
Speaker 2 (20:38):
Okay? So D one Championships had a lower points per
match than D two. Not a surprise, the points per
match for lower. This is common in sports as the
talent level increases. We did see a smaller difference in
the two divisions when the takedown was worth three points,
so that might be significant points per match. How how
(21:06):
did the scoring change in the points per match at
the D two Championships?
Speaker 4 (21:11):
Okay, thank you for that question, Kevin. What you can
see here on this slide is these are the points
per match coming from takedowns, back points, reverse writing, stalling. Okay,
After the takedown became worth three points, everything kept in
the same order. Okay, takedown, skate, back, reverse writing, stalling.
The only the biggest thing that changed, of course, was
(21:34):
takedown points per match, not takedowns per match, takedown points
per match and also back points reduced pretty much significantly
there too.
Speaker 2 (21:46):
So can we can we talk about that? Can we
go can we go back and look at that?
Speaker 4 (21:52):
Certainly?
Speaker 2 (21:53):
So, I mean you're looking at takedowns d two points
per match was four point six two and it's now
six point sixty five. That's one takedown, right, really? Or
is that two takedowns now?
Speaker 3 (22:09):
It's still you know, the two point takedown twenty three
versus it's two two and two is four and then
two and three is six.
Speaker 4 (22:15):
So it's one more.
Speaker 3 (22:17):
I've still got two takedowns a match, is what we're
two change?
Speaker 2 (22:21):
It's not so it's a delta forty four percent, and
I think we're gonna get to that, but it's it's
no more takedowns.
Speaker 4 (22:31):
What you see here is the points from takedowns have
to increased forty four percent. Then when we go to
the next slide, you can see the percentage of all
the points scored, whether it's from takedown, escape, back points,
et cetera. Takedowns went from forty six percent to fifty
six percent. Once again, that's not a ten percent difference,
(22:54):
that's a twenty three percent difference. That's a huge difference, guys,
in the amount of takedowns points per match. Okay, the
reverse providing time stalling any different escapes at different Okay.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
So you went on your feet, you lose on your feet.
The major difference is the importance of the takedown. In
twenty four, whether it was D one or D two,
twenty three was forty six percent. Now it's fifty six
modern era, the takedown has never been more important. So
(23:37):
difference in scoring D one and D two. We looked
at D two and we looked at D one. You
might think that they're different. Is there any reason to
think that they are so different that the D two
analysis is not applicable to the D one analysis.
Speaker 4 (23:53):
Thank you for that, Kevin, because I got a lot
of that feedback from people that thought it might be
so different and stuff like that. But you can see
from slide thirty one they're almost the same darn thing. Okay.
The level of talent is better in division one. Okay, However,
as you can see from the chart there, the screwing
remains almost the same in both of them. Okay.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
Also, I want to bring up two, and I'm sure
you're gonna address this the bracket size. So our data
set for Division two is a little bit smaller than
Division one, mean, just because the number of qualifiers at
the Division two and Division three championships is not thirty
three per weight class, so it's not quite half as
many matches, but it's still a significant number of matches,
(24:39):
especially when you look at them over the year, or
you know, when you look at championship in consolation. But yeah,
the D two and D three brackets are smaller. So
when we look at that, I'd be curious one of
these days and we get to the NAI numbers because
they're up at two hundred and eighty per and to
see if they fit right in the mill or not.
But I'm gonna throw more at Glenn's plate later. But yeah,
just just to be mindful that D two and D
(25:00):
three brackets are smaller than Division one.
Speaker 4 (25:03):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (25:03):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (25:04):
The follow up with Jason said, there are three hundred
and forty matches in Division two tournament and six hundred
and forty and Division one, so there's a significant amount more. Okay,
then the scoring categories as a percentage of terms from
the points, since it's almost identical on the points, and
that they're all almost the same there. Okay. What we
(25:26):
found from this is the more divisions change, the more
the sports stays the same. To do a playback on
the title. The more things change, the more they stay
the same.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
The more they change, the more they stays the same.
But we saw more points per match in D two. However,
percentage breakdown scoring there really is. Like you just said,
they're very similar D one and D two. It's very
statistically similar. And I'm gonna be curious, and I know
we're going to talk about this later. And Jason made
(26:01):
a good point. It's half the matches, so let's do
Let's get another year in there, and then we'll have
two or two years and see if that makes the difference.
Is this Is there enough data in one year's tournament
to make that make those points?
Speaker 4 (26:22):
Kevin, there are some big windows with the amount of matches.
Like I said, however, some weird things can happen. We're
gonna need to follow up this thing after twenty twenty
five nationals with the same thing. Might be a good
topic at the convention. Since I won't being the Olympics
next year. Who knows. Okay, now, what we did then,
(26:44):
if you see on slide thirty six the regular decisions,
Major decisions technicals. It compares Division three Division one with
Division two from twenty twenty three and stuff like that.
The big difference there is the there's more pins of
Division two. Okay in that situation, and then in the
(27:06):
twenty twenty four okay, technical falls as we learned in
episode thirty four, just go up through the roof at
Division one. And that's why I say, who knows what
might have happened? I think after twenty twenty five, Kevin
and Jason, we need to do two years prior two
years after study. So it's the same amount, okay. So
(27:30):
the outcome of the matches are very similar. It is
transferable to say I watched Division two, Division one, et cetera.
It's the same game. It's just a higher level of talent. Okay.
Now let's go to slight forty chase it please, Okay.
Speaker 2 (27:50):
Takedowns per match, takedown points per match. We learned in
episode thirty four when we're talking about D one, the
huge importance of takedown in twenty four. Now, let's look
at twenty three and twenty four in the D two Championships,
and how does that data compare.
Speaker 4 (28:10):
Okay, as you can say on the slide that Jason
is up right now slide forty one. As we discussed before,
the total takedown points went up forty four percent. It
went from four point six to six point six, just
a little bit over two points per match. However, the
number of takedowns per match, as you can see on
slide forty two, okay, had a very small decrease three
(28:34):
point nine percent down. Okay, there were two point three
one takedowns per bout now there's two point two two. Okay.
So the points went up because there's basically the same
amount of takedowns, just a very slight decrease, okay, But
the points just went up because we inflated the points
of those.
Speaker 3 (28:55):
So Glenn, from a statistical standpoint, you know, again for
ideal in the world of statistics all the time, but
the statistician versus an actual statistician, they're different. So it's
also like the nuance the term statistically significant is is
that a statistically significant statistic to say, well, takedowns are down?
(29:18):
I mean, is this something that's like oh you know,
you know, oh no Steles fall we had. We see,
we changed the rules and scoring went down or scoring
went up, but takedowns went down. Is this enough to
make that kind of claim.
Speaker 4 (29:31):
No, it's not statistically significant enough to say the takedowns
went down. They actually went slightly up by about the
same percentage in Division one. To count this, this is
just what we call happen stance and stats. Okay, who
knows what. I had a couple guys that really were
takedown cut them loose type guys that graduated, and then
we had a couple more writing guys this year. It's
(29:52):
basically the same amount of takedowns, okay. So we can
look at this and say there's no difference in the
out of takedowns, even though they were down slightly in
D two and slightly up in D one. What we
can say, okay, from almost a thousand matches each to
each year between Division one Division two combined, okay, is
(30:15):
the points went up and the takedowns remain the same.
So increasing the takedown value had no effect on the
number of takedowns. Okay. So it's you know, I mean,
I'm a laughler, curved guy, you know, being a businessman
for years. I'll get into that in the whole nother show. Okay.
(30:37):
What it does show us, though, is the takedown is
worth more points. Okay, so it's no surprise the guy
that gets the first takedown wins over eighty one percent
of the matches, and there's no takedown in about five
percent of all matches, which is bizarre. Okay, So the
(31:02):
loser only wins thirteen percent of the I mean, the
guy that gets the first takedown on the loser only
gets the first takedown thirteen percent of the time. Now,
as you can see from the next slide, the first
takedown used to be almost twenty percent of all points
in a match. Now it's a little over twenty five.
(31:25):
So it went from one fifth to one quarter of
all the points. So if I score right away on
a takedown, I got one quarter of all the points
and basically the average match. Okay, that's a pretty good
significance to say you're going to win. Now. As a coach,
I always wanted my guy to get the first takedown
and the second one in the third one. So it's
(31:47):
not like you're saying, oh, get that first takedown, you're
going to coach out anyway, But it's a hell of
a lot more important, and it could change the strategy
of matches in the future.
Speaker 2 (32:01):
I so, to sum it up, more takedown points to
the men's NCAA D two championships, and we saw in
twenty three. However, slightly less takedowns in twenty four than
we saw on twenty So more points, less takedowns, but
as we talked about, not significantly different, but the importance
(32:23):
of the first takedown increased. Five. That's that's a that
is significant. Maybe not statistically, but it seems to be.
Speaker 4 (32:32):
No that is statistically important.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
That is wiping the hair that might still be there,
your pears to be Kevin.
Speaker 2 (32:44):
Okay, finished with takedowns, let's talk about escapes and reversals.
How much of a change were they're here, So takedowns
went down slightly? What about escapes and reversals?
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Okay, And once again I can't emphasize this enough. In
just two years, we really don't know enough to really
bang the drum, but we know enough to slightly bang
the drum. Okay. Escapes are relatively constant from twenty three
to twenty four, two point three one to two point
five to one, and of course escapes are worth one point,
(33:19):
so we know that's how many escapes were there, not
just points of escapes, but escapes. Okay. The reversal points
per match decrease twenty one percent from point seven points
per match to point five five. Okay, so I did
a little digging deep into this. The number of escapes
(33:42):
and reversals are relatively the same, okay. If you add
them up, you had two point sixty six reversals and
escapes in twenty three, two point seventy nine and twenty four.
That comes out to points per match, okay, of three
point one on slide fifty three point one and twenty
(34:05):
three and three point six and twenty four. So the
total way of getting out from the bottom, whether it's
an escape or reversal, totals up to the same amount
of points. But what we do see is less reversals
and slightly more escapes. Who knows if this is a
strategy thing. You know, if I know, if I think
(34:28):
I could take you down, I'll get three points out
of that. It's a little bit difficult to say. The
thing now, we saw the same amount of action and
the same scoring, but a slightly different way to get there.
The eyeball probably could not tell the difference when you
went to tournament in twenty four, and remember back to
twenty three. You know, the human brain is fallible. You know, hell,
(34:53):
I thought Jeremy Prut was going to be a good coach.
So you're talking about the human brain being fallible.
Speaker 3 (35:01):
Is this another Tennessee reference, Glenn.
Speaker 4 (35:04):
Yeah, he's been fired.
Speaker 3 (35:05):
I'm I'm making a note of that so I can
cut it out of the show.
Speaker 4 (35:11):
He's been fired for good reason.
Speaker 2 (35:14):
Okay, all right, So in escape reversals, I mean just
it's all there. But basically there's no difference in the
total escapes reversals with the new scoring, the total the
points correct. Kevin, Now, backpoints and exposures. How is there
(35:41):
a big choint change in back points between twenty three
and twenty.
Speaker 4 (35:46):
Four, Yes, there are, Kevin, back points per match dropped
almost thirty one percent, from one point seventy five to
one point two one. Now you look at that and
it's just, oh it's only a half point per match.
That is a big difference, guys, that is a significant difference. Okay.
And the winners back points dropped drastically, you know, for
(36:10):
whatever reason. Okay, Now, if you want to do a
deep dive into the exposure times and wrestler's been on
his back. What we did was we added up to
near fall two, near fall three, near fall four, and pins.
Obviously the word no near fall three scoring rules in
twenty three, but you would either get a two or
four point or then and the number of pin because
(36:33):
if you pin somebody, you don't get back points. So
you have to have this all up to get a
total number of exposures. What we see there is a
lot of numbers on slide fifty six that I'll sum
up for people aren't all stats crazy like me, and
show you the exposure per match went from almost zero
(36:53):
point seven per match to a little less than point five.
And see this on slide fifty seven. That is a
decrease of thirty percent.
Speaker 2 (37:05):
Okay, I think I think also interesting there is and
I'd like to find out why they put in a
three point back point if you go look, there was
almost none. I mean, if you've got a guy, if
you know, you get a two point tilt or something,
I get it. But you're holding more than two, you're
usually gonna get for so it was just a minute difference.
(37:27):
Uh you know, yeah, you know, many pointssures and.
Speaker 4 (37:32):
Near faur three per match zero point zero four, So
that rule change affected nothing.
Speaker 3 (37:39):
So you're either getting the getting the cheap, getting the
two and then readjusting maybe trying to roll through or
two more, or you've got something that's gonna get four exactly.
Speaker 2 (37:48):
And I was, and I was curious as to why
they put a three in, and I was really curious
to see what Glenn came up with if there were
a lot of it, and there weren't. So it doesn't
seem to make a lot of sense. That might be
one that goes away after what.
Speaker 3 (38:02):
I don't think it, you know, yeah, yeah, it may
not make a lot of sense. I don't think it's detrimental.
I don't think Oh no, I don't think it's harmful.
I don't. I see no point now taking it away
now that it's there. I didn't see the what what
I think what of some of us feared now granted
with you know, give coaches time to game rules, because
(38:22):
that's what happens, But the difference is, I'm not I
didn't see as many challenges that we could see, like
oh I want I want three not four to slow
down a match or four not three. I didn't see
a ton of that throughout the course of the season
last year, and no, granted, my my viewpoint was was
thenis the D the D three's the D one s
(38:44):
And again at the tournaments, I'm not paying super close attention,
but dual meets at St. Cloud State, duel meets at Augsburg,
duel meets at Little Rock. So I didn't see a
lot of that, I don't think. I don't know if
I saw it at all, off the top of my head,
So not saying it didn't happen. But again, the three
point ear fall, I think is okay, cool, you get
you turn them for two, three or four. Good, you're
(39:07):
getting points. So I'm fine with it being where it is.
That is my matt opinion.
Speaker 2 (39:14):
Here.
Speaker 4 (39:15):
Let me show us up for you real quick. At
the near fall three. If you have zero points, zero
four points per match with the thing, okay, we're near
fall three. Off the top of my head, that's probably
like thirteen fourteen times it happened in Division twos. Okay,
So the odds that somebody won by one point because
they had a near fall three instead of two is
basically zero, So it probably affected nothing. So we're spending
(39:39):
enough time discussing the near fall three.
Speaker 3 (39:41):
Yeah, legislating the outlier something that. Yeah, the sport has
done too much my opinion anyway.
Speaker 4 (39:50):
Yeah, if you want me to, I'll look back and
see if it affected any match at all. Not doing
this show, I'm not looking back. Okay. So Matt Status
is very concerned about the decrease of exposures from twenty
three to twenty four. Okay, it's a two year window.
Might not really be enough. Okay, we will follow this up.
(40:12):
Like as I said, there are three hundred forty matches
in Division two and six forty in Division one, so
that's not a small window. But one year to the
next is it a trend or anomaly? Only time will tell. Okay,
I'll use one of the bestnologies in America's game, baseball.
There was a guy named Toughie Rhoades who had three
(40:35):
home runs and his first three at bats one day
at Wrigley Field, an opening day only major league player
ever to do that. He only had fifty four at
bats before that, only played in twenty major league games.
He only hit eight home runs the rest of his career,
but for that one day, nobody was better than toughe
(40:56):
Roads on opening Day, so that clearly is a much
smaller the opening day. But there's been so many opening
day games yet Toughee stands alone on that.
Speaker 3 (41:08):
I'm just trying to think, that's not a that's in
my era of it. It's not a name I remember.
I remember Bill Spears hitting three on opening Day for
the Brewers one time, and like, man, he's on pace
to hit how many he's gonna break? He's gonna be
better than Cecil Fielder.
Speaker 4 (41:26):
Yeah, yeah for six, Yeah for six?
Speaker 2 (41:29):
Yeah. So go ahead, Kevin, So sum that up. There
is a decrease and a total of backpoints, and we're
gonna watch it for in the coming years to see
if that it was an anomaly this year or whether
that's a that's a trend. And who can say whether
that was because there was, you know, the change in
(41:50):
the takedown rule right now, the penalties. What about difference
in in uh, you know, writing time, stalling and penalties.
What do we see there, Glennon.
Speaker 4 (42:04):
Okay, thank you. We'll start with writing time and then
we'll get into us. If you didn't notice, Jason was
pointing the stalling call of people. Okay. The writing time
points per match remained relatively constant point three to nine
to point four to two. Once again, this went up,
but it's the same thing. It's not it's a significant
difference at all. Now let's go into stalling. Okay, Stalling
(42:32):
and penalty points went up twenty eight percent. Okay, from
one year to the next. Now they're low numbers, point
three to two points per match to point four to one.
So when you get low numbers, a couple things can
can can sway that. So that's why it's interesting. We
have to do that you know, two year window on
each side of this rule to see if this is
(42:53):
affecting it. The interesting part about this the winner's points
are constant for stalling, but the loser's points went up,
which leads someone to believe, uh, you know, the guy
that's winning the match is stalling more. Now, I was
asked by a couple people, including the big boss of
the nw c A, to do a show one time
(43:14):
to dig deeper into stalling. We will have a future
show where we dig deeper into the stalling. When it happened,
who gets hit, what the score was, et cetera. Okay,
stalling is an interesting call because it's really the only
opinion scoring move in wrestling, you know, it's it's an
(43:38):
opinion thing, whether somebody is stalling or not, you.
Speaker 3 (43:42):
Know, but technically, you know, technically eric a fall is
is a judgment call. But I mean, you know, in opinion,
I shoulders down the match. There's there's something to back,
there's something to validate it. There's a visual validation. And
you say, oh, yep, two, there's the scapula, the one slap.
(44:04):
That's I mean, yes, technically it's your judgment, make the call,
since you cannot challenge a fall because it's a judgment call.
But yeah, just giving you that technicality technically anyway, yeah, Chase.
Speaker 4 (44:17):
My yeah, I agree with you that technically everything's an opinion, right, but.
Speaker 3 (44:23):
I'm sure, well, being good, that's that's technically an opinion,
it's not correct in fact.
Speaker 4 (44:29):
Statistically, statistically it is a fact as now as you
mentioned that after three games they have an sec all
type record for scoring margin.
Speaker 3 (44:41):
Is guys, I'm sorry for this. I'm sorry, I'm sorry
viewers and listeners.
Speaker 4 (44:46):
Is statistically significant sixty points.
Speaker 3 (44:49):
Again that out of the show too.
Speaker 2 (44:52):
But there is a good point, there is a good
point in the stalling. They did make it more codified
the five second on the ankles, you know, and they
count and and I think in twenty five that's gonna
they've made that five second rule pretty much everywhere. So
that's gonna be interesting to see how that affects stalling
(45:13):
and penalty points. So it wasn't just takedowns. It was
you know, it's not as subjective now you watch them.
The ref's counting. That was one.
Speaker 3 (45:23):
They're counting everything. They've They've made the referee do so
much during a match, that's like, that's one thing we
could get the uh, get McCormick on here one of
these shows and say, hey, oh yeah, what's it like
now for a referee to like you got to count here,
you got to count here, you got to count here,
you gotta counted five hands counting. I was told this
is wrestling. I was told there would be no math
(45:45):
as we're on a show with math.
Speaker 2 (45:50):
All right, So we've we've talked about pretty much everything.
What about scoring moves, So that's what you know, you know,
we're looking for falls, we're looking for score moves. How
increase or decreased? You know, what are the difference of
the two point or three point takedowns create and scoring moves.
Speaker 4 (46:10):
Okay, the scoring moves went down very slightly. They went
down a little bit over two percent. Now, once again
there's levels of degrees of going up and down. When
it's such a small thing, it's basically statistically constant. Okay.
The point of this whole slide here is to see
how many scoring moves there were per match, and this
(46:33):
would be a good quiz to ask people and see
what number they come up with. It's five point five
to a little bit under five point four and twenty four.
So that's how many scoring moves you get per match.
Speaker 3 (46:45):
Now, and Glen Glenn, when you guys, when you're breaking
down the numbers that FIPS and Hazard put together, when
you say scoring move, you mean a takedown, escape, you
mean everything we just talked about. Takedown, escape, a near fall, four,
a near fall two, so in that match. So if
that's four scoring moves, correct, yes, it cats just just
to clarify what a scoring move is, it's not, well
(47:08):
it's only you know, only a takedown or you know,
if you've got four takedowns, four scoring moves. If you've
got an escape is a scoring move because it puts
point on the board. A stall Technically, as we said
in the last slides, stall and penalty points are scoring moves.
So whether that's a two point move, a one point move,
a three point move, or a four point move, that's
what we're discussing.
Speaker 4 (47:27):
Correct, correct, Jason, thank you for that clarification. It's everything
but writing time installing, because writing time is not a
scoring move. You get that over time.
Speaker 3 (47:36):
Okay, I hate writing time, but that's another mad opinion.
Speaker 4 (47:40):
Okay, So guys, what I'm trying to say here with
the scoring moves, since that is like the piece to
resistance of things, is we increased the number of points
for a takedown, it had no effect on the amount
of scoring moves.
Speaker 2 (48:00):
Points went up, moves didn't correct all right, unintended consequences.
So what we just said on that last line, does
this follow the law of unintended consequences? Could it affect
our sport in the way that was never intended?
Speaker 4 (48:20):
Sure? This could over the only time will tell this,
Kevin and Jason, whether it's really whether something's been affected
right now, definitely, the pins in the back points have
a big difference from twenty three to twenty four. Okay,
we'll know more about this after a second year analysis
of it. Okay, but there is a possibility that this
(48:43):
changes the sport in some way that was never intended. Okay,
our sport could be changing right before our eyes. We
will explore more of this in part three. The topic
on the show is it bad? Do the fans want this?
I don't know this. This is a thing where you know,
(49:05):
as a stats guy, I'm not a real Oh the
eyeball test. I think pretty much everyone in the William
Mary Sweet were walking around Nationals last year said there
was much more action because of the takedown rule. Well
guess what, guys, there was it? Okay, so uh, you
know it's uh, we have opinions that we come up
(49:26):
with him.
Speaker 2 (49:26):
Somehow, it changing more than you realize in a year.
And you know, I went back and checked because back
in the early sixties it was either sixty one or
sixty two. They changed the rule. There were so many takedowns.
(49:49):
Coaches got together and they made a change where first
takedown was worth two points and every other one was
worth a point. I think it was either it was
either sixty one or sixty two. And then in sixty
six they said we can't just wrestle on our feet.
We got to keep matt wrestling as part of the sport,
and I think there are people that agree with that.
So this may be something that maybe the pendulum swings
(50:12):
that might change back sometime in the future.
Speaker 4 (50:17):
Yes, Kevin, it definitely could.
Speaker 2 (50:18):
Who knows, all right, with the large changes the number
of tech balls and pins, should we do an even
deeper dive voice per minute and what about should we
cover that next time?
Speaker 4 (50:33):
Yes, Kevin, I think we should cover that next time,
and that's going to involve you in fifty doing a
lot more work. Thank you for requesting that.
Speaker 2 (50:42):
Not a problem. I like going back through.
Speaker 4 (50:45):
Yeah, Jason topped out.
Speaker 3 (50:49):
My thumbs on the table, my fingers on my nose.
I said, not it. I'm out on all three of those.
Speaker 2 (50:54):
Okay, all right, keV notes one hundred and fifty one
for your collegiate win Wins wrestling teams, and that's just
gonna keep rolling. D two points per match. I was
gonna say points per minute, points per match seventeen percent
twenty three to twenty four. D one had a twenty
(51:15):
three percent increase in the same time period when controlling
for pins. D two became much closer to the points
per match to D one, so it and again that
may be an anomaly, but they they really tightened up
the difference. Takedowns were significantly more important than the D
(51:36):
two to twenty twenty four, attorney points per match went
up slightly more than two point or forty four percent increase.
Takedowns fifty six percent of all points in the matches
in twenty twenty four as compared to forty percent. Coaches
(51:56):
spend more time on your feet. The difference between attorney
scoring and the D one and D two was not significant.
The percentage difference in regular decisions between D one and
D two got much closer, and twenty four over twenty
three significantly more takedown points from match in twenty four,
but the number of takedowns decreased very slightly. That basically
(52:20):
it's there. They stayed the same, pins dropped as it exposures,
and we're gonna look at more years of data to
see if this is significant. Points per match D one
and D two are up. Scoring moves per match pretty
much stayed the same, and from this it's hard to
say that the new rule created more action.
Speaker 4 (52:44):
Yeah, thank you for shutting that up, Kevin. Next next
month show is part three of the more things change,
the more they say the same. We're gonna dive deeper
into this thing, even do it, permit it, just to
make sure people can we could say what action really
is happening for the amount of time and stuff. I
personally think this is the biggest rule change in my
(53:07):
lifetime in our sport, and it deserves a lot of
attention from Matt's Stats anything else, Jason Kevin anything enclosing
about this show?
Speaker 2 (53:18):
No, I agree. I think it really it's a huge change,
and I think, I really think when as coaches get
more attuned to that change and they start to change
how they run their practices, we may see difference. We
may see more scoring moves or I know. I talked
(53:40):
to a couple officials. They thought it would mean less
scoring moves and they were not surprised when they saw
that stat.
Speaker 3 (53:50):
To piggyback on what Kevin said there, I think I
did feel like some of the doomsday how are we
you know, how are we going to game this? Before
we even get onto it is the action stepping out
of people taking the taking the point to step out
of bounds, to give up the stall rather than give
up a three point takedown. Now we're gonna get. We
get some of that. It's all situational, but it the
(54:11):
the negative impact that was feared has not been realized.
I still again, one year we got to get you know,
I'm not saying we got to give our coaches time
to game it. But every major rule change and every
every every rule change in sport that I've been around
wrestling in the last twenty five years has had again
that unintended consequence that we had talked about on a
previous slide. So I'm waiting for that shoe to drop.
(54:33):
Whether it's a whether it's a boot, or whether it's
a slipper. The impact is still yet to be seen.
So that's something I'm going I've had a wait and see.
I was pleasantly surprised. Dare I say I was slightly
wrong in my expectation of how this was going to
get gamed immediately. It hasn't. It wasn't gamed immediately, probably
because situations were hitting coaches and teams for the first time.
(54:54):
So the more we get more and more they get
reps in those situations. I think that's what could lead
to any potential drawbacks. But right now, eye test. Like
I said, this show is not about the eye test.
I felt, you know, the action was there, maybe the
scoring may not have been a more scoring doesn't mean
action and scoring or not, you know, mutually exclusive, So
(55:17):
you can have more action with less scoring. You could
have more you know, we could get down to the
metrics of a shot attempts per match? Is that up?
You know those There's so many different nuances to to
when we look at the data. Which is what makes
this show fun for me is well, it's it's great
talking points. This is a great bar discussion. This is
a great sweet discussion. This is a great in the
(55:38):
stands in the lower bowl and round one discussion about
the previous year. This is all these things that it's
it's always weight and see too, you know, because as
we say, lies damn lies and statistics. So to that point, again,
it's a wait and see. I'm curious to see what's
going to happen year two of this rule. I'm excited
because again optically I felt the there are you're gonna
(55:59):
get your one one snoozers, it's gonna happen. Kids aren't
gonna want to open up, or they're just so evenly
matched that they're stopping each other. So uh, you know,
sometimes a one one match can be exciting even if
there's just two scoring moves per match. So interesting to
keep keep in mind. So, like I said, I'm I've
become more of a uh wait and see on this
(56:19):
than I have. I don't know if I like this
too much. So that's where I said.
Speaker 2 (56:25):
I got I got one more quick thing to say, Gorms.
We have to have a slide next month that says
is it a boot or is it a slipper? Because
I really like that. That was very good.
Speaker 3 (56:36):
Oh, I just can't. I just popped my head. I
might have heard that it is it a Doc Martin
or is it a dunk? I don't know. Give them
the boot, give them the slipper. Hit me with a shoe?
What was it a boot? Was it a slipper? I
don't know who tows a shoe? Really, I'm gonna ruin that.
I'm gonna ruin that before you even get to use
it next show. That's what's gonna happen.
Speaker 4 (56:57):
Okay, Well, anyway, to all the viewers, we hope you
enjoyed this and learned something about the new bole and
the effect on the sport. We will see you next
month with more about takedowns on behalf of my fellow
co host Jason Bryant and Kevin Hawzard. I'm Glenning Gormley.
See you next month.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.