December 2, 2025 • 7 mins
David Frame of Craigs IP looks at interest rate changes, as well as the Kiwi dollar and how it is trekking against the major currencies.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Muster Financial segment. Brought to you by Craig's Investment
Partners Gore. This information is general in nature and is
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partner's limited financial Advice provided
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
David Framer, Craig's Investment Partners, joins us once again in studio.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (00:25):
How are you Andy?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm going really well, but let's be hot, it's probably
not as good as you guys.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
You've got a.
Speaker 4 (00:30):
New building we have. We're really excited. We moved into
our new premises two weeks ago. So we're on the
corner of erk Street and Fairfield, opposite the New World.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There's the best way to describe things, a good not
actually streets, but just landmarks. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Well, most people go to the New World to know
where it is. We're in the new building on the
corner opposite.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Now, it's been a busy couple of weeks for you guys. Firstly,
we'll start off of this. You've been doing your road shows.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
How's it been.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
It's been good. Yeah, we had a roadhay yes today
and Wyndham recently small turnout but everyone was quite chatty today.
Where all will be in Riversdale at two o'clock tomorrow
mss been two o'clock next week winton Otao Toower, Tapanui,
Clyde Vale. So happy just to have a chat with
people over a bear.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
So you're just encouraging people to come along and just
talk about what they want to think about or what
they're thinking as far as an off farm investment in
the Likes.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Yeah, so we'll talk for ten or fifteen minutes. There's
a small presentation and then we'll just have a chat
with anyone that's got any questions.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
There's a couple of bevies and a bit of a
feed on as well.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
Oh definitely, yeah. The main attraction probably.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Nice nothing better than that. Now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Interest rates the OCR and the LIKES has been in
the news well for the year, let's be honest. But
it's been a bit of movement in that and arguably
it's a good thing. Well it is a good thing,
let's be honest.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Well, it is a good thing. Most people saw it coming.
So the OCR moved down to two point twenty five percent,
which is pretty low on historic levels, and might not
move much more from here. So the general feeling is
that interest rates might be bottoming out. Some people are
still stuck on high fixed rates. So it's going to
take a while for these interest rates to flow through,
(02:11):
but it should help the economy in general.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
But these rates will flow through. As you say, what
timeframe are you thinking, I think.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
There's something like half the borrowers are still on sort
of six percent ish or more. So by the time
that their rates flow off, then they should be somewhere
in four and a half to five percent. It depends
what people do with their money. I guess when they
go to refix again.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So how would you clarify how would you sum up
the year?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I suppose as far as the Hoosi interest rates situation,
I think it would be pretty positive.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
From a consumer viewpoint, it is positive. It's getting better
every month. It's been slowly getting better. Rural economy is
doing quite well, interest rates are going down. Still a
bit of uncertainty out there, so I think the retail
sales are still poor this year compared to the start
of the year, we're definitely in a better space.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Well, you can compare the mood of towns like good
to other areas and that it is December, granted, but
the likes of the main street, there's a real vibe
going on at the moment where there's been new businesses
open up case in point, you guys have changed your location,
but also other especially in Irk Street. You know, it's
good to see those buildings getting filled up. And this
is all just a flow onto the rural economy. It is.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
It's great and it shows the confidence that people now
have where a couple of years ago everyone had their
hands in their pockets.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Would you say there's real confidence in the business sector
around good.
Speaker 4 (03:33):
I'd say in general there is. I can't think of
anyone that's been that negative. But most people are quite cheaper,
certainly it's.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
Not too cheaper.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Unfortunately, was the GDT the global dairy trade overnight the
eighth drop in a row, and all of a sudden
the pressure comes on the milk payouts by the milk companies.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
Yeah, it seems to be we've been on a slide
for a while now. Whole milk powder price is down
two point four percent overnight, but it's down a light
twelve point four percent. Different story going on there, but
it probably points to it to one way direction for
the milk price for the farmers next year, which is lower.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Now and Hydrou's milk fat back nine point eight percent,
butter back twelve point four percent, butter milk powder up
one point eight, chiller up seven point two, lectose four
point two. It went up, mozzarella back one, skim, milk
powder back one point six and the main driver, whole
milk powder back two point four percent.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Yeah, which isn't too flash. The whole milk powder price
is almost back to where it was five years ago,
so it's been a slippery slope pretty much since the
start of the year. The payout should still be in
the nines, you would hope to next year, but it's
difficult to know if this trend continues.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And it's not so much by the sounds of it.
It's not about the demand, but it's supply, and there's
a lot of oversupply on the world market at the moment.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Yes, And it doesn't take much for some of those
other large milk producers to put some into the X
market and suddenly there's more supply than demand on the auction.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Is this just more of an indication though, where New
Zealand sits in the world scheme of things.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
As far as food supply.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
It is we've got quite a brittlely economy when you
look at the world stage, and we do well out
of our primary producing farms. The issue is that if
someone else wants to compete heavily or has an oversupply,
some of their numbers can swamp us pretty quickly.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Absolutely so stand by there's one more GDT auction for
the years, so it'll be interesting to see if there's
a rebound. Now we look at currencies too. It's kind
of stabilized over the past couple of weeks since I
caught up with Sam. Like the Aussie dollar at the
moment's eighty seven cents. New Zealand to the US is
fifty seven cents, the UK is forty three pence, but
(05:50):
it's still pretty low. But as an exporting nation, yet
again this works in our favor.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, it does help for the exporters importers. You probably
notice petrol prices back up. Some of those imported goods
will feel the brunt of but as an exporting nation
we do benefit from a lower currency. It has stabilized,
which is good, and I believe the Reserve Bank coming
out giving a good summary last week help the markets
understand that New Zealand's doing okay and should do better
(06:17):
next year. And hence the dollar looks like it's firmed
up a little bit.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, the fuel price, especially here in Gore, where it
is notoriously non for being cheaper than a lot of
places in New Zealand, and it's gone up. What's diesel
it's almost just under two dollars in some places, for
goodness sake.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Yeah, ninety five petrol is now over two dollars eighty
in most places, So yeah, quite a jump.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
It's just that's probably the ebbs and flows the dollar.
It correlates, really.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
It does, and every household feels the effects of that.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
So I when do you guys finish up for the year.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
We actually are open every trading day of the year,
so every business day, but our Gore office will close
for the days in between Christmas and New Year, and
clients can call out eight hundred number or deal with
one of the other branches, so it'll give our team
here a good rest after a bus a year.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
So the way of getting in touch with you guys,
you're still at the same phone.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
Number, yep, same phone number.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
New address, one Erk Street and you can find us
online at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Get on your David always good to catch up and
we'll catch up in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Excellent, thanks Andy.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners. You're listening to the Musta.
Next we're going to Aldor. We're catching up with Steve
Henderson dairy farming up there. We're down there to appears
where you live
The Muster Financial segment. Brought to you by Craig's Investment
Partners Gore. This information is general in nature and is
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partner's limited financial Advice provided
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
David Framer, Craig's Investment Partners, joins us once again in studio.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
Good afternoon, Good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (00:25):
How are you Andy?
Speaker 2 (00:26):
I'm going really well, but let's be hot, it's probably
not as good as you guys.
Speaker 3 (00:29):
You've got a.
Speaker 4 (00:30):
New building we have. We're really excited. We moved into
our new premises two weeks ago. So we're on the
corner of erk Street and Fairfield, opposite the New World.
Speaker 2 (00:41):
There's the best way to describe things, a good not
actually streets, but just landmarks. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:45):
Well, most people go to the New World to know
where it is. We're in the new building on the
corner opposite.
Speaker 3 (00:51):
There you go.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Now, it's been a busy couple of weeks for you guys. Firstly,
we'll start off of this. You've been doing your road shows.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
How's it been.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
It's been good. Yeah, we had a roadhay yes today
and Wyndham recently small turnout but everyone was quite chatty today.
Where all will be in Riversdale at two o'clock tomorrow
mss been two o'clock next week winton Otao Toower, Tapanui,
Clyde Vale. So happy just to have a chat with
people over a bear.
Speaker 2 (01:16):
So you're just encouraging people to come along and just
talk about what they want to think about or what
they're thinking as far as an off farm investment in
the Likes.
Speaker 4 (01:24):
Yeah, so we'll talk for ten or fifteen minutes. There's
a small presentation and then we'll just have a chat
with anyone that's got any questions.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
There's a couple of bevies and a bit of a
feed on as well.
Speaker 4 (01:33):
Oh definitely, yeah. The main attraction probably.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
Nice nothing better than that. Now.
Speaker 2 (01:38):
Interest rates the OCR and the LIKES has been in
the news well for the year, let's be honest. But
it's been a bit of movement in that and arguably
it's a good thing. Well it is a good thing,
let's be honest.
Speaker 4 (01:48):
Well, it is a good thing. Most people saw it coming.
So the OCR moved down to two point twenty five percent,
which is pretty low on historic levels, and might not
move much more from here. So the general feeling is
that interest rates might be bottoming out. Some people are
still stuck on high fixed rates. So it's going to
take a while for these interest rates to flow through,
(02:11):
but it should help the economy in general.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
But these rates will flow through. As you say, what
timeframe are you thinking, I think.
Speaker 4 (02:18):
There's something like half the borrowers are still on sort
of six percent ish or more. So by the time
that their rates flow off, then they should be somewhere
in four and a half to five percent. It depends
what people do with their money. I guess when they
go to refix again.
Speaker 3 (02:36):
So how would you clarify how would you sum up
the year?
Speaker 2 (02:38):
I suppose as far as the Hoosi interest rates situation,
I think it would be pretty positive.
Speaker 4 (02:43):
From a consumer viewpoint, it is positive. It's getting better
every month. It's been slowly getting better. Rural economy is
doing quite well, interest rates are going down. Still a
bit of uncertainty out there, so I think the retail
sales are still poor this year compared to the start
of the year, we're definitely in a better space.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Well, you can compare the mood of towns like good
to other areas and that it is December, granted, but
the likes of the main street, there's a real vibe
going on at the moment where there's been new businesses
open up case in point, you guys have changed your location,
but also other especially in Irk Street. You know, it's
good to see those buildings getting filled up. And this
is all just a flow onto the rural economy. It is.
Speaker 4 (03:22):
It's great and it shows the confidence that people now
have where a couple of years ago everyone had their
hands in their pockets.
Speaker 2 (03:28):
Would you say there's real confidence in the business sector
around good.
Speaker 4 (03:33):
I'd say in general there is. I can't think of
anyone that's been that negative. But most people are quite cheaper,
certainly it's.
Speaker 3 (03:40):
Not too cheaper.
Speaker 2 (03:40):
Unfortunately, was the GDT the global dairy trade overnight the
eighth drop in a row, and all of a sudden
the pressure comes on the milk payouts by the milk companies.
Speaker 4 (03:51):
Yeah, it seems to be we've been on a slide
for a while now. Whole milk powder price is down
two point four percent overnight, but it's down a light
twelve point four percent. Different story going on there, but
it probably points to it to one way direction for
the milk price for the farmers next year, which is lower.
Speaker 2 (04:11):
Now and Hydrou's milk fat back nine point eight percent,
butter back twelve point four percent, butter milk powder up
one point eight, chiller up seven point two, lectose four
point two. It went up, mozzarella back one, skim, milk
powder back one point six and the main driver, whole
milk powder back two point four percent.
Speaker 4 (04:30):
Yeah, which isn't too flash. The whole milk powder price
is almost back to where it was five years ago,
so it's been a slippery slope pretty much since the
start of the year. The payout should still be in
the nines, you would hope to next year, but it's
difficult to know if this trend continues.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
And it's not so much by the sounds of it.
It's not about the demand, but it's supply, and there's
a lot of oversupply on the world market at the moment.
Speaker 4 (04:54):
Yes, And it doesn't take much for some of those
other large milk producers to put some into the X
market and suddenly there's more supply than demand on the auction.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Is this just more of an indication though, where New
Zealand sits in the world scheme of things.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
As far as food supply.
Speaker 4 (05:12):
It is we've got quite a brittlely economy when you
look at the world stage, and we do well out
of our primary producing farms. The issue is that if
someone else wants to compete heavily or has an oversupply,
some of their numbers can swamp us pretty quickly.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
Absolutely so stand by there's one more GDT auction for
the years, so it'll be interesting to see if there's
a rebound. Now we look at currencies too. It's kind
of stabilized over the past couple of weeks since I
caught up with Sam. Like the Aussie dollar at the
moment's eighty seven cents. New Zealand to the US is
fifty seven cents, the UK is forty three pence, but
(05:50):
it's still pretty low. But as an exporting nation, yet
again this works in our favor.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Yeah, it does help for the exporters importers. You probably
notice petrol prices back up. Some of those imported goods
will feel the brunt of but as an exporting nation
we do benefit from a lower currency. It has stabilized,
which is good, and I believe the Reserve Bank coming
out giving a good summary last week help the markets
understand that New Zealand's doing okay and should do better
(06:17):
next year. And hence the dollar looks like it's firmed
up a little bit.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, the fuel price, especially here in Gore, where it
is notoriously non for being cheaper than a lot of
places in New Zealand, and it's gone up. What's diesel
it's almost just under two dollars in some places, for
goodness sake.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Yeah, ninety five petrol is now over two dollars eighty
in most places, So yeah, quite a jump.
Speaker 2 (06:37):
It's just that's probably the ebbs and flows the dollar.
It correlates, really.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
It does, and every household feels the effects of that.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
So I when do you guys finish up for the year.
Speaker 4 (06:48):
We actually are open every trading day of the year,
so every business day, but our Gore office will close
for the days in between Christmas and New Year, and
clients can call out eight hundred number or deal with
one of the other branches, so it'll give our team
here a good rest after a bus a year.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
So the way of getting in touch with you guys,
you're still at the same phone.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
Number, yep, same phone number.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
New address, one Erk Street and you can find us
online at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Get on your David always good to catch up and
we'll catch up in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (07:20):
Excellent, thanks Andy.
Speaker 2 (07:23):
David Frame of Craig's Investment Partners. You're listening to the Musta.
Next we're going to Aldor. We're catching up with Steve
Henderson dairy farming up there. We're down there to appears
where you live
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