September 9, 2025 • 8 mins
David Frame of Craigs IP says predicting interest rates is still a big topic of discussion.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The must have financial statement brought to you by Craig's
Investment Partner's Gore. This information is general in nature and
is not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice
provided disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com
slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
David Fray, M Craig's Investment Partners joins us this afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
David, Good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (00:25):
Good afternoon, Andy, And to the listeners.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
How's everything been. Oh, heaven't spoken to you for a while.
You've been taking touring around the world.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
I have been.
Speaker 5 (00:32):
I've been visiting relatives in Europe that we probably should
have seen over the last few years. But time catches
up on you and you think you'd better just go
and do.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It before we kick off.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
What's the mood like over in the Europe and the
EU Europe and the lights.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
I'd say it was mixed.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
I didn't talk economics to many, but I know, say
the tourist attractions in Rome, they said it was far
quieter than this time last year, And to be fair,
I thought it was busy enough, but they everyone seemed
to say that the tourist numbers were down.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Why do you reckon that is.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
I think maybe people are still feeling the pinch awe,
but after inflation, there's not a lot of spear cash
in most households, and I guess, you know, people joke
to me that I was going near a war zone,
and they're probably right, So maybe that puts some people off. Yeah,
we still enjoyed ourselves.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
We're kicking off of interest rates at the moment, and
a reesting scenario for people, especially if you're coming off fixed.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
What do you do?
Speaker 5 (01:30):
I think you have a good think about interest rates
and where they are. I know, Andy, we spoke at
the start of the year and home loan rates are
dipped just below five percent. They haven't really moved much
since then. Some of the short term rates are down
below five percent now. I guess when you fix your
locking in some certainty, I'm not convinced they're going.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
To drop much more.
Speaker 5 (01:54):
There are some good mortgage brokers around Corker and Smith
and Town are pretty handy. One wants to know about interesstrates.
They can probably walk in there with their home loan details.
Accountants are good for farmers. I think to talk about
risk and spreading the spreading your interest rate risk across
your loans.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Are you seeing more cuts to the OCA we are?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
I think they'd probably be a couple more.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
So.
Speaker 5 (02:19):
There's one announcement on the eighth of October. I think
that most of those cuts are already baked into the
interest rates in the market. So you'll see term deposits
maybe go down a little bit more, floating interest rates
go down a little bit more, but really there's not
much meat left in it.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
What are you seeing people do investors and the likes.
Are they going for long term security or are they
thinking we'll just ride the market and float. Well, what's
the mindset you take?
Speaker 5 (02:48):
We spread our risks so we diversify. I'd be crazy
to say, Look, interest rates will stay here for five
or ten years, or they'll be one percent higher or lower.
So we do take a balanced approach to ing. On
the investor, we.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Talk about returns on farm. At the moment, daring's looking
pretty good, red meats looking pretty good as well. Arables
a bit touch and go to be fair, but on
a whole, everything seems pretty positive heading into the new season.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Yeah, I think it's good because in flash and rarely
took its toll, like the costs on farm of skyrocketed
as you'll know and the listeners, so to see a
few good seasons in a row is great. I think
things like the Fonterra payout will be quite a good
bonanza for dairy farmers. Even the sheep and beef guys
are seeing good surpluses, so it's far more positive now.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
But even like the open country of their acquisition of
MVM Fonterra with the purchase of their consuming brands as
such as well, and if it goes through talk of
two dollars coming back per share, that's big money.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
It is big money, and I think people, whether it's
dairy farmers, the Fonterra payout, sheep and beef having surpluses
this year is great and I think it's important that
they talk to their accountant and see where those surplus
is the best pot. So some people have debt they
can probably take care of. Some people have deferred maintenance,
(04:13):
but a lot of that cash will probably end up
invested or spent. So it's quite important that people talk
to their professional advisors and get a good gauge as
to what should help them over the next few years.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Perhaps a good chance to consolidate debt.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
Yeah, I think so. I mean some farms and you'll
know this better than I do. Some still have a
hefty amount of debt on them. Other people seem not
too concerned, and that's where the accountant probably is a
good person to gauge whether someone should be retiring debt
or not. I mean the other factor to that is
interest rates are getting lower, so the debt is getting cheaper.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
And that brings us on to surplus on farm this
year if the budget's going to look pretty positive, and
just diversifying what you want to do with this money
that comes in, I suppose you guys seeing a lot
of clients at the moment thinking what's the best approach.
Speaker 5 (05:03):
Yes, and we're happy to talk to clients or even
new clients. There's no cost to that initial advice, just
to see how they can best use that cash. Maybe
diversify off farm. Traditionally a lot of farmers have diversified
off farm into property. Now property has its pitfalls as
well as its opportunities, but financial markets can provide quite
(05:27):
a good, fluid, liquid solution to their investment needs.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
So you're encouraging people just to pick up the phone
and have a conversation.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
Right, Yes, definitely, yep.
Speaker 5 (05:36):
And it's a busy time of year, so if they
can't get off farm, we can come out and visit.
So I think the important thing is that people look
at their options and have a good plan. Otherwise, sometimes
it's just left in the bank and am easily interest rate,
or it just gets spent on something you don't actually need.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
We'll finish up with this as well. Sad news Smith's
City going into liquid. The doors are all closed. It's
just another blow to a town like good. We talk
about H and J. Smith a couple of years ago, David.
We look at what we've got now and it makes
you wonder what's happening in the applecart next.
Speaker 5 (06:12):
Yeah, I think it's really sad, particularly for small town
like Gore. There's a lot of unseen value in buying locally,
so it's not always the cheapest place to spend your dollar,
but it's probably the best place to spend your dollar.
A lot of mouths, families relying on that dollar, and
you can rely on those people if you've got a
warranty claim or something like that. Now Smith City have
(06:34):
sort of been stuck in a bind where it's sort
of product and price for a lot of their goods
at the moment, and people are buying online.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
A lot of people.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Spent up three or four years ago when interest rates
were cheap and everyone had a lot of free money
from the government. So at the moment, there's not a
lot of money being spent on the TVs, the beds,
the sofas because there's not a lot of discretionary dollar available.
But if you have got it, it is best spent locally.
And it's a shame for Smith City nationwide that they
(07:05):
just haven't been able to fight through this.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Would you say this is a victim of COVID, the
COVID times and people just went online to shop.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
I would do for several factors.
Speaker 5 (07:15):
I think twenty twenty one everyone pretty much went and
upgraded anything they wanted, or they bought an extra rental house,
or they bought a new TV. The last few years
interest rates have shot up, people haven't.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Had the money available. If they have had the money available.
Speaker 5 (07:32):
They probably updated their goods three or four years ago.
Even cars were difficult to get, but a lot of
people still got them during that period. So the spending
of those large ticket items has really slowed down because
of COVID.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Craig's investment Partner's David. The best way to people to
get in touch with the team just come.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
And see us at one twenty Main Street and Gore,
or visit us online at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Good on your David, Always good to catch up with
the team.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Thanks Andy, David Fray, mccraig's investment Partners here on the
Main Street and Gore. Before the end of the hour,
Taylor Painter from Balfy, Young Farmers out of Derry and
ZID Jared Stockman. But up next we're hitting just down
the road here from Hakanu e HQ. Senior Sergeant Gary
Edison of the Gore Police
The must have financial statement brought to you by Craig's
Investment Partner's Gore. This information is general in nature and
is not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice
provided disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com
slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
David Fray, M Craig's Investment Partners joins us this afternoon.
Speaker 3 (00:24):
David, Good afternoon.
Speaker 4 (00:25):
Good afternoon, Andy, And to the listeners.
Speaker 2 (00:28):
How's everything been. Oh, heaven't spoken to you for a while.
You've been taking touring around the world.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
I have been.
Speaker 5 (00:32):
I've been visiting relatives in Europe that we probably should
have seen over the last few years. But time catches
up on you and you think you'd better just go
and do.
Speaker 3 (00:41):
It before we kick off.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
What's the mood like over in the Europe and the
EU Europe and the lights.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
I'd say it was mixed.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
I didn't talk economics to many, but I know, say
the tourist attractions in Rome, they said it was far
quieter than this time last year, And to be fair,
I thought it was busy enough, but they everyone seemed
to say that the tourist numbers were down.
Speaker 3 (01:03):
Why do you reckon that is.
Speaker 5 (01:05):
I think maybe people are still feeling the pinch awe,
but after inflation, there's not a lot of spear cash
in most households, and I guess, you know, people joke
to me that I was going near a war zone,
and they're probably right, So maybe that puts some people off. Yeah,
we still enjoyed ourselves.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
We're kicking off of interest rates at the moment, and
a reesting scenario for people, especially if you're coming off fixed.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
What do you do?
Speaker 5 (01:30):
I think you have a good think about interest rates
and where they are. I know, Andy, we spoke at
the start of the year and home loan rates are
dipped just below five percent. They haven't really moved much
since then. Some of the short term rates are down
below five percent now. I guess when you fix your
locking in some certainty, I'm not convinced they're going.
Speaker 4 (01:52):
To drop much more.
Speaker 5 (01:54):
There are some good mortgage brokers around Corker and Smith
and Town are pretty handy. One wants to know about interesstrates.
They can probably walk in there with their home loan details.
Accountants are good for farmers. I think to talk about
risk and spreading the spreading your interest rate risk across
your loans.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Are you seeing more cuts to the OCA we are?
Speaker 4 (02:17):
I think they'd probably be a couple more.
Speaker 3 (02:19):
So.
Speaker 5 (02:19):
There's one announcement on the eighth of October. I think
that most of those cuts are already baked into the
interest rates in the market. So you'll see term deposits
maybe go down a little bit more, floating interest rates
go down a little bit more, but really there's not
much meat left in it.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
What are you seeing people do investors and the likes.
Are they going for long term security or are they
thinking we'll just ride the market and float. Well, what's
the mindset you take?
Speaker 5 (02:48):
We spread our risks so we diversify. I'd be crazy
to say, Look, interest rates will stay here for five
or ten years, or they'll be one percent higher or lower.
So we do take a balanced approach to ing. On
the investor, we.
Speaker 2 (03:01):
Talk about returns on farm. At the moment, daring's looking
pretty good, red meats looking pretty good as well. Arables
a bit touch and go to be fair, but on
a whole, everything seems pretty positive heading into the new season.
Speaker 5 (03:13):
Yeah, I think it's good because in flash and rarely
took its toll, like the costs on farm of skyrocketed
as you'll know and the listeners, so to see a
few good seasons in a row is great. I think
things like the Fonterra payout will be quite a good
bonanza for dairy farmers. Even the sheep and beef guys
are seeing good surpluses, so it's far more positive now.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
But even like the open country of their acquisition of
MVM Fonterra with the purchase of their consuming brands as
such as well, and if it goes through talk of
two dollars coming back per share, that's big money.
Speaker 5 (03:51):
It is big money, and I think people, whether it's
dairy farmers, the Fonterra payout, sheep and beef having surpluses
this year is great and I think it's important that
they talk to their accountant and see where those surplus
is the best pot. So some people have debt they
can probably take care of. Some people have deferred maintenance,
(04:13):
but a lot of that cash will probably end up
invested or spent. So it's quite important that people talk
to their professional advisors and get a good gauge as
to what should help them over the next few years.
Speaker 3 (04:25):
Perhaps a good chance to consolidate debt.
Speaker 5 (04:28):
Yeah, I think so. I mean some farms and you'll
know this better than I do. Some still have a
hefty amount of debt on them. Other people seem not
too concerned, and that's where the accountant probably is a
good person to gauge whether someone should be retiring debt
or not. I mean the other factor to that is
interest rates are getting lower, so the debt is getting cheaper.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
And that brings us on to surplus on farm this
year if the budget's going to look pretty positive, and
just diversifying what you want to do with this money
that comes in, I suppose you guys seeing a lot
of clients at the moment thinking what's the best approach.
Speaker 5 (05:03):
Yes, and we're happy to talk to clients or even
new clients. There's no cost to that initial advice, just
to see how they can best use that cash. Maybe
diversify off farm. Traditionally a lot of farmers have diversified
off farm into property. Now property has its pitfalls as
well as its opportunities, but financial markets can provide quite
(05:27):
a good, fluid, liquid solution to their investment needs.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
So you're encouraging people just to pick up the phone
and have a conversation.
Speaker 4 (05:34):
Right, Yes, definitely, yep.
Speaker 5 (05:36):
And it's a busy time of year, so if they
can't get off farm, we can come out and visit.
So I think the important thing is that people look
at their options and have a good plan. Otherwise, sometimes
it's just left in the bank and am easily interest rate,
or it just gets spent on something you don't actually need.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
We'll finish up with this as well. Sad news Smith's
City going into liquid. The doors are all closed. It's
just another blow to a town like good. We talk
about H and J. Smith a couple of years ago, David.
We look at what we've got now and it makes
you wonder what's happening in the applecart next.
Speaker 5 (06:12):
Yeah, I think it's really sad, particularly for small town
like Gore. There's a lot of unseen value in buying locally,
so it's not always the cheapest place to spend your dollar,
but it's probably the best place to spend your dollar.
A lot of mouths, families relying on that dollar, and
you can rely on those people if you've got a
warranty claim or something like that. Now Smith City have
(06:34):
sort of been stuck in a bind where it's sort
of product and price for a lot of their goods
at the moment, and people are buying online.
Speaker 4 (06:42):
A lot of people.
Speaker 5 (06:43):
Spent up three or four years ago when interest rates
were cheap and everyone had a lot of free money
from the government. So at the moment, there's not a
lot of money being spent on the TVs, the beds,
the sofas because there's not a lot of discretionary dollar available.
But if you have got it, it is best spent locally.
And it's a shame for Smith City nationwide that they
(07:05):
just haven't been able to fight through this.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Would you say this is a victim of COVID, the
COVID times and people just went online to shop.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
I would do for several factors.
Speaker 5 (07:15):
I think twenty twenty one everyone pretty much went and
upgraded anything they wanted, or they bought an extra rental house,
or they bought a new TV. The last few years
interest rates have shot up, people haven't.
Speaker 4 (07:29):
Had the money available. If they have had the money available.
Speaker 5 (07:32):
They probably updated their goods three or four years ago.
Even cars were difficult to get, but a lot of
people still got them during that period. So the spending
of those large ticket items has really slowed down because
of COVID.
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Craig's investment Partner's David. The best way to people to
get in touch with the team just come.
Speaker 5 (07:52):
And see us at one twenty Main Street and Gore,
or visit us online at craigsip dot com.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Good on your David, Always good to catch up with
the team.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
Thanks Andy, David Fray, mccraig's investment Partners here on the
Main Street and Gore. Before the end of the hour,
Taylor Painter from Balfy, Young Farmers out of Derry and
ZID Jared Stockman. But up next we're hitting just down
the road here from Hakanu e HQ. Senior Sergeant Gary
Edison of the Gore Police
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