The Muster- Eric Roy: Understanding Polls

Eric Roy says the true tale of political polls won't be seen until the election next year.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:10):
Welcome back to the muster. Former MP Eric Kroud joins
us in our political roundup this afternoon. Eric, good afternoon,
how are you?

Speaker 2 (00:18):
Ohm? Very good? I'm up at Tiana. She's pretty jolly
wet up here, it's sure.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
If nothing else, at least the lake there is filled
up to what it was.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Well it was, I've never seen it so low at
you know, at the end of August that in August.
I've never seen it as low as it was. So
Hopefully we won't have to import too much more coal
from Indonesia to keep things going.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
That is a whole new, totally different subject to have
to decipher, isn't it. Why do we why do we
get coal from Indonesia?

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Well, because it's cheaper than our own coal when we
don't mind children mining it. I don't know. Sensical, no nonsensical?

Speaker 1 (01:00):
Oh absolutely, we Look, there's quite a bit going on
in the political landscape at the moment, talking about the polls.
It's got everything neck and neck. But is this a
true reflection of what we're seeing? Would you say?

Speaker 2 (01:10):
Oh no, Look, I don't think so. I think what
we've got at the moment is a bit of a process.
Vote to me, there seems to be just an absolute
disconnect as to why things are so slow economically and
then recovery wise, and it doesn't seem to be any
connection back to the last administration and what they did,

(01:33):
and you know, the need for the Reserve being to
clamp down on inflation and the impact that that said,
and how long it takes to turn the ship around,
and it's not going right, And I think, yeah, officially,
I don't really understand what the importance for poles are
so far out from an election, other than to give

(01:55):
the media something to talk about. But it's interesting that
each of the political parties do their own polling, not
so much on where they sit in relation to popularity,
but what are the issues that actually concern you? And
cost of living has been right up there, and that's

(02:16):
why I don't watch it every day, but occasionally, if
I'm in and question Time is on, I'll turn it
on and the opposition is question to question on what
are you doing about the cost of living? What are
you doing about this? What are you doing about that?
Which is why Nikola Willis is talking about butter and
various other things, because it's a national's polling will be

(02:38):
telling them. That is also an issue and the thing
that will happen as we near the elections, people will
start to look at policy rather than have just a
boat in the polls, which is representing their discord at
the situation, and well hopefully they'll look at well the

(02:59):
other coalition will include to Patty Maury and the Greens
and what portfolios will to Patty Maury have to be
in the coalition, what will the Greens have, how will
the wealth tax works? And all of those questions which
at the moment are being totally ignored because we're completely
absorbed by the cost of living and.

Speaker 1 (03:21):
This is where a tech politics comes into play unfortunately.
But the fact is the coalition option on the left
is certainly not that palatable.

Speaker 2 (03:31):
Well not to me anyway, for a lot of people,
to be fair, Yes, you know when you just think
about you know, where the where the jolly well, who's
going to have what? And what are they going to
do and what will would labor have to give away
to form a coalition and it's pretty skew. I think
we're in an interesting phase in politics like that. There's

(03:57):
probably at least thirty percent of the vote now committed
to new Zealand First Act to Paddy Murray and the Greens.
So that means that Labor and National, the two main
center parties, will be fighting over seventy percent of the vote,
so they're never going to get much over the mid
thirties and the rest will be made up from the

(04:20):
other side. And you know, there has to be a
bit of horse training to form a coalition and who
knows what that will bring.

Speaker 1 (04:28):
Well, Chloe Swarbrick flying business class, you got part of
that on social media last week. Is this a case
of hypocrisy or is it just a necessary evil for
MPs to go do their jobs.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
There used to be a terminally called chardon a Socialists
or spa bath socialists, and I think you can work
out that might be exactly what happens. So yeah, it's interesting,
really really interesting that the way in which people conduct
themselves and think that it's totally associated from the policies

(05:02):
that they're espousing when they get on a podium in
a hall somewhere.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
When Peters say in New Zealand won't recognize a Palestinian state,
do you agree?

Speaker 2 (05:13):
Well, I can understand why he said it. You know,
I've always been of the new that the only solution
is to have two states and to give Palestine some recognition.
And I can understand why he's saying, well, we're not
ready at the moment to do that. We don't want
to glorify a mass. We need to know exactly where

(05:35):
the boundaries of this new state might be and what
that might mean. And we're recognizing and now facilitate a
piece deal. Will it get the rest of the hostages back?
What's actually going on? I can understand all of the
conundrums that are around doing that, So I can understand

(05:55):
why he did that. But you know, long term, I
think there has to be two states. Plastine needs to
have their own spot and have some charity out there.
There's currently twenty three wars going on around the world.
Don't know Bermer and Tyland, me and Mark, Thailand might
have settled down at the moment, might bring us back
to twenty two. And some of them are horrendous losses,

(06:19):
probably the greatest of which would be what's happening in
the Sudan at the moment. So there's you know, there's
a lot of discontent which is hitpening with quite dramatic
impacts in a lot of countries right now, and well
we know about the Ukraine as well, but the Gaza

(06:39):
one is only a streams with great regularity. In the overreaction,
I think we would call it at Israel to a
war that was started by Hamas is of great concern.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Doctor Anna Breeman has been appointed as Governor of the
Reserve Bank.

Speaker 2 (06:58):
Yes, well, it's kind of fascinating really. Their role is
as an independent and their task with controlling inflation. And
you know, I think you if you wind the clock back,
why was Apian Awe reappointed shortly before the election? You
think they would have delayed that a weep it in

(07:20):
the way that the government has delayed the new Governor
generals thing to beyond the next election. And obviously he
was a friend of the policies, well not obviously my view.
He was a friend of the policies of the Labor
government and the money that they were dishing out, and
he had some pretty extraordinary views about how important he

(07:42):
was and how much more money he needed to run
the show, and a whole lot of things. And so
they do have an independent role, but they also need
to be a friend of the government to understand what's
got to happen in terms of getting some growth into
the whole solution of where they are or the equation

(08:02):
of controlling inflation. So it's been an interesting bit. And
I understand there were sixteen applicants for the job, which
shows that in sport of what we think, some people
with a lot of very good qualifications put their hand up.

Speaker 1 (08:18):
Now, doctor Breman's come from Sweden, which she's been deputy
governor of Sweden's Central Bank. Do you think perhaps she's
bringing a bit more of a neutral perspective to the role.

Speaker 2 (08:27):
Well, we'll have to wait and see. I don't know.
Just see, the Reserve Bank is independent. They're quite separate
from Treasury, which gives advice to the government, and the
government relies on Treery's advice when they're sorting out what
policies will be and what the impact will be. But
every quarter we get something of a state of the

(08:48):
Nation's speech from the governor of the Reserve Bank when
they talk about whether they're going to put the official
cash rate up or down or hold it, whether they
have any more formal talks of the government simply don't know.
But they need to actually be thinking a little bit
wider than just the official cash rate and what that

(09:09):
might mean and inflation used to Their role is to
keep inflation under three percent between one and three and
we can't understate how important that is. Like I can
remember on one occasion in the Muldoon years where inflation
had eighteen percent and then we had to get smps
and a whole lot of things and just to keep

(09:29):
people viable. We don't ever want to go anywhere near that.

Speaker 1 (09:33):
Again, Peggy Muldoon, there's a blast from the blast from
the past. Deeric Roy always good to catch up, right O.
Good one, Eric Roy, former MP and their political round
up up next. Bryce McKenzie had a ground swere in
New Zealand. There was a what was it? There was

(09:54):
a survey come out over the weekend featuring groundsmoure in
New Zealand. Brice is going to liberate a little bit, hm.

Speaker 2 (10:01):
I then that a