Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:12):
Good afternoon, and welcome to the muster on Hakanui. My
name is Andy Mueller. I'm here until two o'clock thanks
to Peter's genetics. Welcome along. I hope everything's going as
well as it can this afternoon. The weather is warmer,
which is a positive. It's not raining, it's not windy.
It's just a bit of overcast weather. At the moment.
The forecast is looking good for the afternoon. We'll talk
(00:33):
about that in a moment, as we've got Tom Petty
to take us through the hour. Tom Petty and the
heartbreak is this song here, Learning to Fly from nineteen
ninety one in the.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Town five day forecasts brought to you by twin Farm
teff Rom and subtext. The proof is in the progeny
teff Rom dot co dot nz.
Speaker 1 (00:54):
Wednesday afternoon brings sunny periods with calm, variable winds and
high twenty Fournesday afternoon shells of rezing your westerlies six
and nineteen. Friday cloudy with reason your westleys twelve and eighteen.
Saturday afternoon shells of reising your Westerlies nine and eighteen,
and Sunday showers of light nor easterlies ten and eighteen
saw temperatures to hand, Northern Southland twelve, Riverton thirteen point two,
(01:20):
excuse me, tian Now twelve point eight, Titoro twelve point two,
Winton thirteen point one and Woodland's eleven point five. Simon
Hotcroft of a South and Rural Support Trust starts us
off this afternoon. Once again we've teamed up on the
Muster with the South and Rural Support Trust. We did
this last year regarding mindset and a few things to
(01:40):
keep in the back of your focus when you're looking
at the season and the challenges that are present of you.
We're starting off with Simon today of course, like I say,
Chair of the Rural Support Trust. Brenton Howden a new
voice to the muster, farming just away from between Dipton
and Winton, not far from the old Benmall pub, talking
(02:00):
about how life is over in his neck of the woods.
So we catch up. Renton gives us a bit of
a rundown of how things have been. Tom Schallard from
Craig's Investment Partners is on the program. Darren Jared Stockman
at a dairy en Z. We caught up with Jared
last week and just having a bit of a follow
up as to how the situation is looking for the dairy,
especially for the dairy farmers down here in the South.
(02:21):
And Tom O'Brien business owner from Garston, Russell Maloney of
PGG Wrights and gives a rundown on the Barcluther sale.
And then we start the hour next with Simon Hotcroft.
This is the Muster until two o'clock thanks the Peters
Genetics in ju Simon Hotcraft is chair of South Monmoral
(02:54):
Support Trust and joins us this afternoon. Now. We teamed
up with South and Nural Support Trust about this time
last year after the spring we had and once again
due to the weather conditions with the wind and the
damage and everything that's going on, we're catching up with
the team once again for the next couple of weeks
here on the must talking about different things happening on
farm regarding different sectors of the farming landscape. We're hearing
(03:17):
from vents, we're hearing from experience and we're just going
to get a bit of a gauge just about just
give you some tips to suppose as you look forward
into the next four or six weeks and the lead
up to Christmas. After what has been a devastating couple
of weeks. Simon, I welcome you win once again. Always
good to chat. It's been a pretty full on couple
of weeks down here in the South.
Speaker 3 (03:36):
Yeah, thanks Andy. It has definitely were sort of what
do we day, sort of thirdame host event, and everyone's
sort of moved out of that sort of response, I suppose,
and into recovery. This week's wheather lots better and has
been better the last couple of days, which is helping
out with people's morale. But yeah, it's been an interesting
(04:00):
for the last twelve days.
Speaker 4 (04:01):
Really.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Yeah, I suppose there's a lot of hot takes that
people can take from this, but at the moment, it's
all about getting the cows milked and dairy sense in
a sheep and beef system, getting the fences up and
running so using lambs aren't running about. But there's a
lot you've got to take on board at the moment
if you've head severe damage done to your fences or
to your farm in general.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
Yeah, absolutely, And I think the best thing that we've
found is making sure that farms farm businesses are being
able to sort of come up with a plan of
how they're going to deal with that and just trying
to get that sort of clear head first. That's I
think we're starting to see people this week start to
(04:40):
get a bit of action around getting some of those
plans in place, and actually starting to see some contractors
going into some of those majorly effected farms to make
a start. Unfortunately, it's going to be a long tail
on this given the extent of number of trees down
except but basically I think everyone that sort of can
(05:04):
get that plan together will feel better about that, and
then it's just a time frame I think priority. You know, obviously,
you know when it initially happened, we were running around
even in our own farm business, trying to work out
the plan for our generation for power. So running between
(05:24):
two dairy farms which are there and a quarter apart
with one generator just didn't work. We managed to sneak through,
but you know, so all those sort of little things
you look back on and go, how could we sort
of be better prepared.
Speaker 1 (05:38):
From a rural support trust perspective, Cybon, How have people
coped over the last thirteen days?
Speaker 5 (05:45):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (05:45):
Pretty good, Andy, You know, like anything, it's sort of
bet adrenaline kicks in first First of all, it is
really around for us as the communication network obviously was battling,
and for us to try and get a gauge on
what the problem it was looking like. You know, I
was in my little bubble bubble here at Gummy's Bush
trying to work out, you know, if this had been
(06:06):
a widespread event or not. Within that first couple of
hours we sort of started to get some information around
it was widespread, so you know, people have you know,
then sort of ran on adrenaline through those periods. In particular,
you know, those requiring that energy to milkhal so generation
(06:28):
capability was limited within the dairy sector in southam in
South Icago. So so I was just trying to coordinate
a bit of a plan around that, and then you
know that that was sort of priority on a rural sense,
and then just trying to identify, I guess across across
(06:48):
the province where those you know, those were the worst
effective farmers were, and trying to get some support in there.
And I think once again it was relying on their
communities to sort of look out for each other. And
you know that's once again this time last year, we've
(07:08):
done the same thing. We're just sort of we were
there to sort of make sure that those royal communities
were looking out for each other and then also just
making sure we were helping out where we could really.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
And that's just from Emberside. And there are still people
without power. The figures out late last night one hundred
and fifteen households in the South of Farms and the
likes without power. Still two hundred and five in the Tago.
So this will be a moving figure obviously, but nonetheless
there are still people going this long and having to
put up with generators and.
Speaker 3 (07:36):
The likes oh absolutely, ay, and to knowledge knows it
had power outages for a long period and still have
you know, they are still chipping away without that connection,
and you know, just to make sure that they are
being well supported within their communities, and yeah, also making
(07:59):
sure that we're connecting within themselves. I think yeah, on average,
you know, in this particular in the dairy, they were
probably on average anyone that lost power might have been
out without it around that sort of seventy two seventy
two hours, so that you know, that was a significant
(08:20):
differential to what we've seen in past times, where we
might have had isolated outages for you know, twelve to
twenty four. So that's really given us some you know
step back and go, how how are we hell were
we prepared? And then in our own business, we weren't
that well prepared. So you know, I was feeling guilty
(08:43):
after the day one that some of our staff houses
didn't actually have you know, we had limited generation and
those staff didn't have access to to their powers. So
once again, you know, you've got got to stand back
and actually take it as seat responsibility here and look
at your own businesses and go take the you know,
(09:05):
take the learnings out of this and see if we
can become a bit more prepared. And you know that
also would help across you know, across other agencies such
as the Real Support Trust. You know, that takes that
pressure off having to deal with that situation.
Speaker 1 (09:22):
Now, there's a number of events that are happening, community events,
barbecues and the likes getting people to reconnect some and
you talked about catching up your neighbors, but likes the
Real Support Trust, you've got your real riders happening every Wednesday.
That must be happening again tonight. We'll get the dets
on that. Before the end of the show serving for
farmers starting up at the end of November, and I
(09:42):
think of anything, this just teaches people that you need
to take time of farm and have a work life balance, right.
Speaker 3 (09:48):
Yeah, definitely, Andy, And you know it's always been a
big part for us making sure that we're trying, you know,
as a real support trust as make sure we're try
and get people connected. And we sort of rolled out
some events last week and there's some more this week
as you've mentioned. But I guess it's just really those
empowering those royal communities to look out for each other
(10:10):
and once again they have and you know, making that
I guess that's making that decision to actually make an
effort to go, because you know, once you get along,
you think you haven't got time, but actually get along
and have a catch and a chat for an hour
or two. Then you can get away feeling a bit
better and you know and actually everyone's you know, realize
(10:32):
that everyone's it's sort of in the same bait. So
you know, that's that's been a big part of for
us as that connection and would support Heatrenda is doing
a great job comms wise to make sure that she's
promoting events that others are having and also promoting the
events that we're having, so you please get along.
Speaker 1 (10:52):
Good on your Simon, Thanks for your time as always,
thanks so much. Is craft of South and Rural Support Trust.
Now that number for South and Ural Support Trust. If
you want to have a yarn I eight hundred Rural
Help I eight hundred and seven eight seven two five four.
Remembering a problem shared can be a problem halved. Next,
(11:15):
we're catching up with Brenton Helden. You're listening to the Muster.
Welcome back to the Muster on Hakanui. Brenton Helden is
our next guest, a new voice to the Muster, farming
(11:38):
between Winton and Dipton, although he described himself more as
Ben Moore the old ben Moore Pub, they're not far
from there and joins us a afternoon, Brenton, Welcome to
the Muster. Good to chat.
Speaker 5 (11:49):
Hi Andy.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
Thanks, ye're pretty good now. I caught up with you
a couple of weeks ago and you were complaining that
we didn't have a correspondent from over your neck of
the woods. So you're prepared to put your hand up,
so credit it on that one.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
Yeah, I suppose what you say when you're drinking. You
should back up when you're sober duction.
Speaker 1 (12:06):
That's for sure. Hey, Brenton, just give people a bit
of an idea about your farming operation.
Speaker 5 (12:12):
So we're situated, yeah, as you said, just below the
ben Or Hotel on the Fern Hill. So we held
just on your way to Queenstown from Winton. We've got
about five hundred and eighty hecties here. We do sheep
and beef and fevered of dairy support. Yeah, sort of
(12:32):
easy hill sort of stuff down to flats, that's all. Yeah,
it's all pretty easy country. You can get a tractor
over n My grandfather has been farming here since nineteen
fifty seven. He's ninety six now and he's still ticking
around the farm, just keeping an eye on things. Yeah,
is he.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
On the tractor doing a few case.
Speaker 5 (12:54):
Still hasn't been so far this year, but he still
moves the odd mob for me. And yeah, he can
still get on a pair of hair and whatnot. I
think I think this year might have been his eight
eighty third lambing.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
I think eighty third.
Speaker 5 (13:09):
Yeah, the first one when he was fourteen, he said
back during the war, he said anyone could get a job,
so left school at fourteen and on his birthday and
when I got a Lambing date.
Speaker 1 (13:18):
So, and I suppose when he sits there and talks
about Beck in my day, you've kind of got to
stand up or sit up and listen because eighty three
Lambing's well, you kind of can't argue with experience.
Speaker 5 (13:29):
Yeah, he's seen it all. Really, that's all the different
feds and ways of doing it. I suppose he's tried it,
and yeah, seen what's worked and what hasn't.
Speaker 1 (13:39):
Now, as far as the weather events, over the past
couple of weeks, it's been Southland Drive. We spoke to
Simon Hotcroft before about it from south and real support
Truss Brenton. But in your neck of the woods, how
did things go?
Speaker 5 (13:52):
We're actually very fortunate here, just just well we're placed
with the fern hole and we've got the training of
tours to west, which I think softened the blow court
of that. So we only had probably eight or ten
trees down and probably only a couple over fences and
there are only two wire offenses, so we're able to
lift them off the tractor and carry on pretty easy.
So yeah, but just down the road from us Sena Bush,
(14:15):
there's a few trees down there, and yeah, so very
fortunate to have very minimal damage.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Do you sound you sound like you got off pretty
lightly in the scheme of things.
Speaker 5 (14:25):
Yeah, very very lightly. Yeah, so it's yeah, we're pretty
much got everything tidy up now, and yeah, but I
definitely feel for the guys that have still got a
mountain of work in front of them. Definitely, like that
deer farmer at Lockheel, they've got a hell of a
job in front of them.
Speaker 1 (14:39):
By the sounds things, yeah, absolutely, And as a matter
of finding a starting point and going from there and
just looking after the top three inches. But the season
in general, we talk about how good the winter was
down here where you're over there Brington. How do things
pan out? Did you have a decent winter to set
you up for the spring?
Speaker 5 (14:56):
Yeah, really really good one to really dry. I was
just look it with my father, looking at the rainfall
tellies and we got about twenty three mil for July,
just sort of I think it was sort of back
to old winters I can remember as a kid being
really cold and dry, so that was good. And then
yeah into September and October where we're fairly wet. So
(15:19):
but yeah, the good winter had set us up to stop.
We're in good condition coming off crop, and yeah, if
it had been a wet winter and a wet spring,
things not have been looking so good at the moment.
Speaker 1 (15:30):
Why would you say your average rainfall would be.
Speaker 5 (15:35):
Here, It'd probably be around about six or seven hundred,
maybe eight hundred. I'm not big. It's really checking rainfall,
so but i'd say be around that mark.
Speaker 1 (15:48):
You just wake up in the morning and see what
nature's providing.
Speaker 5 (15:50):
You, right, Yeah, Yeah, I've got a digital one that
records that. It's a matter of, yeah, keeping an eye
on it and looking at what it's doing.
Speaker 1 (15:59):
But well, like your granddad would say, analog would be best, right, Yeah.
Speaker 5 (16:04):
I think he still keeps a manual record on his
calendar with us with the old tip out collector.
Speaker 1 (16:12):
Yeah, so you got through tailing and the likes all right,
your percentage it could have been worse.
Speaker 5 (16:17):
Yeah, I think this year has been the best of
tailed here and sobbing back, but a little bit disappointed,
was I think there his first two weekends of September
a sort of knocked me for sick. So I thought
with the scanning percentage in the grass cover and the
condition of yous. I thought I could have set a record,
(16:38):
but however, I'm still still happy enough of what I got.
Speaker 1 (16:41):
So yeah, well you won't be the only one thinking
along those lines now. I spoke to you before off
air and saying, what would you like to show the
fit about today? And somebody comes on talks about what's
happening in their neck of the words. But you've got
something that's really relevant as well. I mean, stage frightened
the dog and not being able to pee, You've got
a real interesting story to share.
Speaker 5 (17:02):
Yeah. So I had a hitting dove tight there and
probably guilty of not really taking a good eye on
his toilet habits. But there was one night there he
was really struggling to pee and all, this doesn't look
too good. So ended up taking him down to the
vets and yeah, he had a real swollen up ladder
(17:22):
and hadn't been able to pee for a day or two.
And they did a lot of tests and left him
there and it come to the conclusion that he had
had a prostrate infection which was causing all sorts of havoc.
And he ended up staying in the vets for about
about eleven or twelve nights. Quite a hefty vet bill,
so they got him been able to pee on them
(17:44):
by himself again, And yeah, something you sort of need
to keep a good eye on. Actually, now take good
close watch of how much toilet's activities my dogs are doing. So, yeah,
it was very close to him being put down there
for a while if he wasn't able to get back
the teen on his own.
Speaker 1 (18:03):
So how long did it take you to notice before
he headed this infection?
Speaker 5 (18:08):
He may have had it, they reckon. They may have
had it for a week or two, but it must
have really come to a head there that It was
a Sunday night, I think an afternoon there was he
was squatting trying to pee, and I thought, this isn't right.
So he probably hadn't been able to pee for two
or three days maybe.
Speaker 1 (18:27):
Yeah, it's intriguing to bring that up because watching the
toiletry habits of your dogs normally let them off the
kent out of the kennels, they run around, they do
their markings like they normally do. But I suppose you've
got a gang of dogs right and they're just running
around happy as larry, then it's easy for it to
go unnoticed.
Speaker 5 (18:43):
Yeah, definitely, definitely. Yeah, when you let let looks right
off at the time, it's hard to keep track of
each one, that's what they're doing. But yeah, after try
and just keep an eye on definitely on him. And
yeah see that you see everyone pee at least once.
I suppose during the day.
Speaker 1 (19:00):
You have a pretty handed team of dogs on imagine
as well.
Speaker 5 (19:04):
Yeah, not too bad. Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm a
dog trill us by any means, but they definitely get
the job done for me here on our place here.
Speaker 1 (19:12):
Yeah, that's pretty much about it. Howdy, Hey, thanks your
time on the muster of this afternoon. Solid debut and
we'll catch up in due course. Appreciated the chat.
Speaker 5 (19:20):
No very good ending, it's all right, Thank you bad.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Damn Brenton Howden around the bin More area probably doesn't
need dogs, let be honest, he's pretty handy on the
rugby pettic as well. He gets around pretty good. Jared
stopping from Diary and Zid's up next.
Speaker 6 (19:37):
You're listening to the muster, Webb turned, it was beautiful.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
Thanks for joining us. You're listening to the muster on HAKAUI.
My name is Andy. If you were next, we're catching
up with Jared Stockman out of Dairy en Z to
give us an update on the situation on the farms
after the weather event. Nearly two weeks going. Now, gee,
time moves on. Jared, Good, afternoon, half noon, Andy, How
are you? Yeah, I'm going pretty well, But I think
(20:17):
the bigger question is how are you and the team
at darry and Z I dare say there's only enough
hours in the day to get stuff done.
Speaker 4 (20:23):
Yeah, we've been pretty stretched out the last couple of weeks,
but well, what a difference a couple of days, mate,
with a bit of sunshine out there, So I think,
you know, the mood of the provinces is lifting. But yeah,
still a lot of work to be done out there
in the region, a lot of trees down, a lot
(20:45):
of disruption, and a lot of very tired and fatigue
farmers out there.
Speaker 1 (20:50):
So from your guys perspective, we're looking at the next
stage of the recovery.
Speaker 7 (20:55):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (20:56):
Look, the region is still on the state of emergency obviously,
and that will are on Friday, and you know, the
teams have been thinking about recovery and I imagine that
you know, Civil Defense and row Sport Trust will be
you know, working on their plans at the moment in
terms of what his recovery look like. But you're going
(21:19):
to be going to be a long time to get
things sorted. There's still some permanent fixes that will need
to be made in the power networks. So yeah, long
long road ahead of us.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
So what's the messaging we've got today for dairy farmers.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
Oh, look, they're absolute champions. Needs to be on us.
But I guess the two things that spring to mind
for me is one is health and safety of themselves
and their team. They haven't had much of a break
between carving and mating. They've had horrific storm in between,
so there's be some very tired people out there. And
(21:59):
you know, there's still a significant risk around clean up trees,
learning against each other, branches that are stuck up in
trees that you know may not come down until the
next win. So I guess general message for us is
get yourself in the right frame of mind before you
started taking some of the trees in front of it.
(22:21):
Probably the second messages and look it goes without saying,
there's been a number of farmers that have been caught
out with you know, this this loss of power, and
I think the wider you know, the wider question moving forward,
as people will just need to think about the resilience
of their farming operation and what are the key risks
(22:41):
that they face, you know, to be able to continue
to operate. And look, I think, you know, the great
thing is about farmers is they want to help people.
And I guess the message is that if you've got
yourself sorted out, then you know, the community can align
you for the help. And and I think that's the
(23:03):
you know, that's that's the main message. Just have a
think about, you know, some of the risks on your farm,
in your business, and then how can you mitigate them
so that you know when the next ad this event
comes around, that you're ready to help out the community.
Coms have been a real challenge with you know, throughout
this event, and that's probably challenged everyone around, you know,
(23:28):
lack of connectivity and and I guess you know, people
will be sitting back and going, hey, you know, maybe
it's a it's a satellite product that we need to
look at. You know, ye, we need to get generators
ordered for the shed, but we also need to consider
a generator for the house so that at least people
have got a bit of a base to operate from
(23:50):
and just make things away bit easier. But yeah, I
think those are the questions people will be asking themselves
over the next couple of weeks. But we're really keen
that they focus on the short term at the moment,
looking out for themselves and you know, there's there's a
long road to head for these people, and you know,
(24:10):
us and real support trusts and the other key stakeholders
in the industry are just really keen to help out
and support them through the through the next few months
and you know, ensure that they have a good a
good season and.
Speaker 1 (24:24):
That's going to be the big thing going forward, is
just checking on on your mates and your neighbors. As
far as the well being side. You can't underestimate that enough.
Speaker 4 (24:33):
No, I think you're right. And you know, again it
comes back to we're really conscious that you know, farmers
work hard, they work long hours, and we just want
to make sure that they're making the best decision and
you know, with the right frame of mind before they
you know, before they start doing some some big stuff
that might cause injury or even fatalities. And you know,
(24:56):
that's what I've got my fingers crossed for at the
moment that we just we get through the.
Speaker 7 (24:59):
Next couple of months and you know, no one.
Speaker 4 (25:02):
Seriously huge or you know, we don't have the fatalities
in this clean up.
Speaker 1 (25:06):
And there's a number of barbecues happening around the province
as well, just a various times, just a great chance
for people to go to farm and connect. And we
think we need to urge people to go along to
these as well, don't we.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
Yeah, we had a there was a there was a
heat last week and it was just great to see
farmers get off farm, dairy farmers and shouldn't be farmers,
the farmers get off farm. You know, just have a
have have a hamburger, have a check to the neighbors
or you know people maybe they haven't seen for you know,
(25:39):
for a week. While there's another one happening. Real Support
Trust is organized another one covering our Aurora and wood
End on Friday, And yeah, I guess the messages is
just keep looking at keeping eye that we're all support
facebook page. You know sign the hot Croft and his
team have just been doing a wonderful job. Is per usual,
(26:02):
but yeah, just keep a look out on the Facebook page.
And you know, if you can yourself and your staff
get along to one of these barbecues and you know,
just take take a couple of hours, breakoff farm and
connect with some other people.
Speaker 8 (26:16):
Yeah.
Speaker 1 (26:16):
Wise words again, Jared, always appreciate your time.
Speaker 4 (26:20):
Thanks, Andy, appreciate it.
Speaker 1 (26:23):
Now, right, Jared Stockman of Derry and Z. Now when
I was speaking with Simon Hotcroft earlier in the hour
talking about south and drill writers. It's happening this evening,
six thirty pm at the Other Prairie, Laura Goode Hall,
eighth Sterling Road. It's six thirty So reural writers up
and running. Surfing for farmers happening in a couple of
weeks as well. Tom Shallard's up next.
Speaker 6 (26:44):
Anything that was possible.
Speaker 9 (26:49):
The Muster financial segment brought to you by Craig's Investment
Partners Gore. This information is general in nature and is
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited. Financial advice provided
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
Tom Shower, out of Craig's Investment Partners, joins me in
the studio this afternoon. Tom Good afternoon, Thank you, Andy.
Speaker 8 (27:14):
Look it's just great to be back back in the studio.
And yeah, we saw a ray of sunshine yesterday, which
after some wild weather, it was really quite pleasing to see.
Speaker 1 (27:25):
Well, this afternoon is supposed to be twenty three or
twenty four degrees in Gore.
Speaker 8 (27:29):
Yeah, it looks a bit overcast at the moment, so
im not holding my breath.
Speaker 1 (27:33):
It's damned if you do. Damned if you don't, though
in that sense I suppose. But we look at the
farming scenes. People are out there, tailing gangs are up
and running very well behind all the contractors are and
people are getting the cows milk. Ultimately get that white
gold coming in.
Speaker 5 (27:47):
Right.
Speaker 8 (27:48):
Oh, it's right, Andy, it's going to be a very
busy eight weeks into Christmas for farmers after after a
ten day delay.
Speaker 1 (27:56):
Really, what if someone say fifty days until Christmas.
Speaker 8 (27:59):
That's a scary thought.
Speaker 1 (28:00):
That's a really scary thought. So let's ignore that, un
Let's talk global markets instead. What's happening there?
Speaker 8 (28:05):
Yees? So October marked the six straight month of games
for global equity markets, driven by a very strong start
to third quarter earnings, which has been supporting sentiment and
looking back at history, this has been the best six
month stretch for American equities since the nineteen fifties. So
(28:26):
of third quarter earnings, approximately eighty three percent of the
S and P five hundred constituents that have reported so
far have exceeded the market's expectations, which has been very
pleasing and supporting valuations.
Speaker 1 (28:42):
Is this the Donald Trump effect?
Speaker 8 (28:45):
Partly andy, but the numbers are real that the earnings
are very impressive, especially at the top end of the market.
The megacap companies that we refer to as the Magnificent Seven,
they've been churning out some really impressive numbers. And what
has been driving the market onwards is the capital expenditure cycle,
(29:10):
you know, from these big companies as they invest in
artificial intelligence. So, just to add some context to that,
the Magnificent seven companies, the big tech companies, will spend
close to five hundred billion UIs dollars this year on
artificial intelligence and related infrastructure, and we expect this to
(29:32):
continue to climb next year. So many companies that are
downstream of what we consider this very large capital expenditure
super cycle, you know, stand to be huge beneficiaries.
Speaker 1 (29:44):
Did you say five hundred billion dollars on AI.
Speaker 8 (29:48):
That's correct, Andy on on capital expenditure. So it's it's
very real. You know, there's diffinitely parts of the market
that do look a bit hot, but this theme you
know in the quality names is very real and is
going to going to continue to drive the market, you know,
(30:09):
certainly for the for the foreseeable, for the next twelve
to eighteen months.
Speaker 1 (30:14):
Yeah, closer to home New Zealand macro, what's going on? Yees?
Speaker 8 (30:18):
So, I guess the silver lining of the soft GDP
print last quarter has been, you know, the strong response
by the by the Reserve Bank delivering that fifty basis
point cut we talked about last time I was on here,
and look, the economy desperately needed it. The market's currently
pricing a further twenty five basis point cut on the
(30:40):
twenty sixth in November, so that'll see the OCR at
around two point two five percent by year end. So
just for those with short memories, that's whopping three point
two five percent lower than in August twenty twenty four.
So enthusiasm for check credit that's driving the New Zealand
equity market close to an all time high. And this
(31:04):
broadly shows that monetary policy of this nature does work,
and the benefits of lower rates will flow through to
the economy. They do take sort of six to twelve
months for flow on effects to materialize, but we do
expect you quite quite solid rebound in GDP for twenty
(31:25):
twenty six.
Speaker 1 (31:26):
But those ocr cauts had to happen like they did right.
Speaker 8 (31:28):
Oh, absolutely, And it would have been madness if it
wasn't a fifty basis point cut at the last meeting
in early October, So that was really pleasing. It was
long over due.
Speaker 1 (31:44):
The rural sales market, would you say, it's buoyant at
the moment.
Speaker 8 (31:48):
Yeah, looks to be pretty liquid, Andy, which is pleasing
for some of those older farmers that you know in
the process of selling or succession. And I guess on
that note, it's never too early to come into our
office for a chat about if you're in the process
of selling the farm for you know, how you might
(32:10):
how we might structure a portfolio for for growth and income,
you know, to to support support retirement. That sort of
tends to be air core business nowadays.
Speaker 1 (32:21):
Andy, Now we're going to see this Fontera capital return
providing stimulus to the economy in six months time. But
you can see likes of the field days at why
Moving Southern Field Days and February people will be out there.
You start seeing it around them, wouldn't you.
Speaker 8 (32:38):
I think so exactly that that return could could come
as early as as March. I mean nothing FOREMOS has
been guided, but you know we would expect sometime in
the in the months from from March to May. Yeah,
it'll be it'll be a good time to be a
indoor at the at the Southern Field days, that's for sure.
But yeah, along with I guess cheaper credit to drive
(33:01):
the economy into twenty twenty six, that three point two
billion going back to the dairy farmers via the capital return,
you know, it will be a very strong year for
the regions. For the rural economy. You know, we expect
a portion of the proceeds will be invested in some description.
(33:22):
So that might be capital expenditure on farm to enhance
the efficiency and long term productivity. Could be debt reduction,
but many farmers with robust balance sheets, you know that's
not going to be the best use case. So we
expect the portion to invest off farm to create that
(33:43):
portfolio diverification and help with succession planning. So that's that
is where we can help. We manage bespoke portfolios Taylor
to our clients for growth and income off farm, and
we will be hosting a series of rural pub talks
in early December to discuss this capital return and highlight
(34:04):
the opportunity to invest off farm that this presents many
dairy farmers. So keep an eye out on your letterbox
over the next few weeks for an invitation to pop
down to your local pub for a quick beer, andy
and a light snack while we present on the opportunity
here as we see it here at Craigs.
Speaker 1 (34:22):
Yeah, another correction on the GDT, but make no qualms
about it. Daring still in a very good headspace. Tom Hey,
the team there at Craig's IP. How do you get
in touch?
Speaker 8 (34:31):
Come down to one twenty Main Street, Gore or CRAIGSIP
dot com.
Speaker 1 (34:35):
Tom shalloud always good to catch up.
Speaker 8 (34:37):
Excellent, Thanks very much, Andy.
Speaker 1 (34:40):
Craig Shall out of Craig Shall out, this is you,
Tom Shall add that know where that comes from. Tom
Shall add of Craig's investment partners. Always great to catch
up with the team. Thomas O'Brien is based up in Garston,
business owner. We're going to see how things are up there.
Next you're listening to the Muster.
Speaker 10 (35:01):
This interview brought to you by Agriss Into South Branches
in Lawnville, Gore, Cromwell, Milton and ranfully dropped by your
local Agress into South Branch today.
Speaker 1 (35:14):
Thomas O'Brien, Garston business owner in Northern Northern South and
joins us once again this afternoon, Get a tom good Andy,
how's everything up in Garston? Has been an interesting couple
of weeks to say the least where you are there.
You're reasonably exposed up on the hill. How did things go?
Speaker 11 (35:33):
Yes, we are reasonably exposed, well, very exposed right up
on the top of the hill. But you know, we
shared pretty well Andy, compared to a lot of other people. Actually,
the day of that really horrific sort of win that Thursday,
a couple of weeks ago, other number Cargo and the
building that I was in was actually sort of shaking
a bit and the lights were going off and on,
and we were kind of looking at each other in
(35:55):
the meeting games do we really want to be in here?
So yeah, I just amazed at you know, the number
of trees down obviously. I mean it's been talk of
the town and country for the last couple of weeks,
I know, but yeah, it really did impact a lot
of people. We were very lucky. The only damage we
sustained was a bit of debris going through a ranch
(36:17):
slider door and that was about it. No trees down, yeah,
no other real issues. So got off pretty lightly really.
Speaker 1 (36:25):
But the weather's been all over the show, highlighted by
the fact that Corney at Pete's looking the best it
has all year.
Speaker 11 (36:31):
I know, right, it's just yeah, you know, if you
believe the medium to long term forecast for New Zealand
as a whole, it looks as if the northern and
western parts are going to be warmer and wetter than normal.
But yeah, sort of, the eastern parts is probably going
to be a bit drier, and I suppose, you know,
if we're anywhere in between, it'll probably be a relatively
(36:55):
sort of normal comer and commons with a bit of luck.
Speaker 1 (36:58):
Now, you're up in Queenstown at the moment, and I
flew in there on Monday afternoon on a very full plane.
And when you're coming into Queenstown when you've got to
drive south. All you want to do is get on
the ground. But you're looking at these tourists all around
you and your eyes are just lighting up by these
vistas that are mountains just covered in snow as you
land into Queenstown itself. So I'd say it is quite
(37:19):
a vibe up there at the moment.
Speaker 11 (37:21):
Oh definitely like and you know further south in Queenstown
because you know, I've probably got a bit of a
love hate relationship with Queenstown. You know, there's probably a
lot of us, do you know. It's a very very
beautiful place as we know, and it won't change, you know,
on math, I suppose, but it's also it does have
its challenges as well. But I had a pretty nice
chat to someone who has got a hoghday house near
(37:43):
Kingston and he's actually Melbourne based and he's been, oh
he's been at his place for a couple of weeks
and he just said, oh, the contrast between Melbourne and
that fear light straight, you know, he said, I just
drive up the driveway and he told me he gets
quite emotional now when he comes in and he just
gets it and has a lookout and seeing those beautiful mountains,
(38:03):
you know, the hectors and then yeah, he said, it's
just another different world.
Speaker 5 (38:09):
So we're very very lucky where we live.
Speaker 1 (38:11):
You know, when you say you have a love hate
relationship with Queen's Town, you sound like me. The older
you get, the more cynical you get.
Speaker 11 (38:18):
Well, yeah, I don't think. I don't think we're isolated
in that respect, you know, Like you know, there's been
a lot of a long time local people who have
come up from the Cargo and Gored have had holiday
houses up here for a very long time. And I'm
pretty sure people from the Dunedin sort of christ area
they come down to Wantica. Yeah, I'm talking over the
last fifteen sixty seventy odd years. And yeah, they're sort
(38:40):
of getting a bit long in the teeth now and
they're sort of, yeah, they're tolerance for all sorts of
stuff probably gets a bit less, which is understandable. And yeah,
a lot of them are sort of uprooting and going elsewhere,
or just pulling the pin and taking advantage of some
probably relatively good property prices over a relatively long period.
Know that's probably not the case right now, but just
(39:03):
this last week or so, that old chestnut when they
say these little green shoots are starting to come through.
With the economy. I think that's starting to come through
with real estate prices starting to just creep up a
little bit more again. And yeah, businesses starting to reinvest
back and their infrastructure again, which is good to see.
Speaker 1 (39:26):
As far as the Kings and Fly the season started,
those twenty two thousand sleepers over that thirteen to fourteen
kilometers of track that you helped fix up. How's it been.
Speaker 11 (39:35):
Oh, you know that we're starting off with a pretty
good season. You know, we've got a regular charter trip
on a Friday. They see Edmund Hillary Trusters. Yeah, they
have a couple of buffloes of people that come through
on a Friday. So that's a good regular kind of
once again talking about consistency that's going right through the season.
And then there's a regular Sunday run which is open
(39:56):
to the public and all in sundry. So yep, we've
got a really good team on It's a small team.
You know, it's quite a complex operation, quite a costly operation.
But as long as we get good patronage and you know,
and the word gets out, you know, it's a great
experience and iconic experience in every sense of the word.
And yeah, looking forward to a great season.
Speaker 1 (40:17):
Good on your time. We'll leave it there. I always
appreciate your time.
Speaker 11 (40:20):
Cheers Mady kit Che.
Speaker 10 (40:24):
Laugh out loud with Pag Proud because life on the
land can be a laughing matter. Brought to us by
sheer Well Data working to help the livestock farmer.
Speaker 1 (40:34):
So Guy rings up the cops. He goes, Hi, is
that the cops? And they say, yeah, what do you want?
He goes, I'm calling to report my neighbor Billy. He's
hiding drugs inside his firewood logs. Thank you very much
for the call, sir. The next day of the police
descend on Billy's house. They searched the sheer with the
firewood is stored. Using exes, they bust over every single log.
No drugs are found. They swore at Billy and left.
Later that day the phone rings at Billy's house. Hey Billy,
(40:57):
did the police come? Yeah, they chop your wood. Ye,
Happy birthday, buddy. Just a reminder as well. Wednesday Night
Country with Sheryl Anderson this evening. Thanks for Regional Ford
long time supporters of Hockinnue Radio. Much appreciated by Nathan
and the team. That's me all over and done with
for the afternoon. I'm Andy Mullett. This has been the
(41:18):
muster on Hock and now he thinks the Peters genetics
enjoy the afternoon. It's a little bit warmer. It's a
thing of beauty. See you tomorrow. I'm a PGG rights
to present stock selling action that occurred at about cloth
the sale yard this morning. Mark cald is on the
line to give us a rundown on how the sale week?
You know Mark, and welcome to the muster and how
(41:38):
did those prices go today?
Speaker 5 (41:40):
Good averyone?
Speaker 7 (41:41):
How are you very good? Today? We had a yarding
for strong yarding prime lambs are tops average channeld fifty
three to twenty, mediums one eighty to two twenty and
small one hundred and seventy still lambs small yarden of
the income to the very end of the season for
cup'ain teeth one hundred and twenty one thirty five, we
had a reasonably withdraw I use in one hundred and
(42:01):
eighty to three twenty, the tops fitch mediums one to
two one seventy and the lighting and news or one hundred,
one hundred and twenty. We had the first lot of
new season lambs and today they fetched one hundred and
fourteen dollars and very good lambs they were. Indeed we
had a small small yard of us and lams at
the foot they fixed one hundred and twenty dollars with
a large yarden of cattle today max demand for what
(42:22):
was out there. Quality can do to continue to sell well.
If you like more prices, please go to our Facebook
page and they will be up there for you. Looking
forward to a bit a hate with November coming forward,
to get a bit of grass grown from some of
the lambs decks and you willing should be dooming. That
is it for us today, Thank you very much,