The Muster- Jeff Grant: Elections Always Carry Surprises

Jeff Grant says the only thing that is uncertain ahead of local body elections is the uncertainty of voter turnout.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
Whatever, it's welcome back to the muster. Jeff Krant joins
us in this afternoon's political round up. Good afternoon, Jeff.
It sounds like you're up in Central Otago as the

(00:22):
sun out.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Yes, they're done at a bit of sun. But you know,
Central major parts of it had quite a bit of
rain over the last a few weeks, a bit like Southland.
Sorry for Central, that's quite good to get rained at
this time of the year.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
It sounds as though there's been a lot of wind
up that way too.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
Yeah, they definitely caught the end of that front that
went through that obviously hit a lot more damage in
terms of Wellington and Tasman area. But yeah, a bit
of wind.

Speaker 1 (00:53):
Now you talk about wind. Politicians renowned for hot wind.
But nonetheless, look local government restructure, you reckon that's on the.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
Well The intention, from what I understand is now the
RIMA legislation will come into the House probably in December,
the introduction of the changes, and then the government is,
as I understand, hopeful to have that through by July.
Those changes will be significant, especially for regional councils in

(01:24):
terms of what paths or what areas they will be
responsible for. In terms of consenting etc. And how much
that will become national nationally based, and then there will
be some implications for territorial authorities and so question really
starts to wind up on the basis that if you're
stripping back the regional council responsibilities, well you know, what

(01:46):
are they left to look after? And is there a
more logical argument to then look at the structure in
the Southland? As Rob Scott promoted, what do you say
is there an opportunity for a single unit for your
authority for the whole south The.

Speaker 1 (02:02):
Biggest issue seems to be though, is the blowback from
local government to central government regarding restrictions on things. Would
you agree with that?

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Yeah, I look there's a bit of that in there too.
But if you looked at what the economy has done
over the last three years in terms of reduction in
employment and redundancies, public service reforms etc. You wouldn't have
said that the local government had stretched itself in this area.

Speaker 1 (02:34):
And arresting as well regarding the government. We're not far
away now from the general election, yes it is still
just over a year away, but all of a sudden
we're seeing Wiston Peter's at the weekend, going into campaigning
mode from the word get go. But you're not convinced
that there won't be a change of government.

Speaker 2 (02:50):
Well, I think that you'd have to say when you're
doing the school board and putting the points on the table,
there's still a wee way to go because while the
coalition government I think has done well in terms of
holding themselves together and making some of those reforms, the
implications from those reforms. So let's take something like you

(03:10):
can now builder, we're about to be able to build
a house under seventy square meters without getting consent. Those
sort of things they haven't filtered through. The interest rates
in terms of mortgages haven't yet filtered through to where
people have more cash and in their weekly pay. So
there are, without any doubt my view, Stool some things

(03:33):
that they would need to get that people would start
to feel that the win was behind them and that
things were starting to look good. And you know there's
always by elections can be turbulent and you never know
the result. But the one in Auckland with the Maris
showed that, you know, the minority parties are still.

Speaker 1 (03:56):
Very strong, but there's no voter engagement Jef. The turnout
so that was well below fifty percent. This is a
concerning issue heading into local body politics as well as
the bigger picture is that nobody wants to be engaged
with the process.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
Yes, well, democracy is a very thin thing when it
comes to societies being very upset about where they stand
in terms of the community. And I think that's a
classic situation where people tend to get turned off and
that's that could filter through to the central government in

(04:30):
terms of the election later and probably October next year.

Speaker 1 (04:33):
What do you make a former Labor in Peace Stewart
Nest changing his colors and going with Winston.

Speaker 2 (04:39):
Oh, the new zeald Fairs teends to cleet these people,
don't they. Jane Jones came out of Labor administration, so
and I'll see one of the national MPs that I
didn't even realize have existed as an MP from Wrong
and he obviously has joined up to New zeald Fairs. Look,
I think Winston, even at eighty is going to be

(05:02):
an impact in this next election.

Speaker 1 (05:04):
The Alliance vote is going to be crucial to understand
the impact of what this has on the writer to
remeat industry as well. Jeef, what are you thinking is
going to occur.

Speaker 2 (05:14):
Well on the current information, and that's pretty limited until
we see the pack that comes out with all the
information in terms of what it is the sixty five
to thirty five percent going to look like. They talk
about negative pledges, which mean that the majority or the
one hundred percent of the board have to agree. They

(05:36):
talk about the shares that we currently holds in the
corporate one dollar will be on a secondary market in
some prediction by the chairman that they'll be worth a
dollar twenty six. I'd have to say, unless you are
required to need to have shares to supply, I don't

(05:56):
see how they would be at a dollar twenty six
because why would you need to shares? So there are
a number of questions. I think the issue of third
party is still not being dealt with, and so unless
there is some comfort around the sixty five percent takeover,
it's not a joint venture. I don't know where that
word came from, but unless there is some comfort around

(06:20):
how that will work going forward, I think the vote's
going to be hard until farmers get and the shareholders
get a copy of the proposal, in being able to
understand what that actually means in terms of implications, there
are a lot of unanswered questions in a vacuum, which
then people start to get theories about what that may

(06:43):
have impact on. But I would have to say, on
the current information, I would struggle to vote for it.
And I think that the sort of plan be oh, well,
the banks will step in and take it over, and
you know there might be anything left. Well, the reality
is somebody will buy it.

Speaker 1 (07:00):
Sounds like the Paris Agreement. The more information we learn,
then we can make a more informed decision rightly.

Speaker 2 (07:05):
Exactly and so looking venus to the board and the
process and to lead. Information is in the hands as shareholders.
I think it's just speculation what the final outcome may
look like. But on current information I would struggle to
see what the advantage was as a seholder reliance.

Speaker 1 (07:23):
Good on you, Jeff Grant, Always appreciate your time. Cheers
Jeff Grants and the political roundup before the end of
the year of Ben Dooley, who farms near Winton, but
next in studio Taron Benton