September 11, 2025 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch says Spring is going to be an unsettled season.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You know what, I'm a jigg.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Gold beer on a Friday night, a pair of jeans
and figures, rap and radio and it's time to catch
up with so Duncan from winter Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
So don't can help things?
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Very good. Thank you from a very windy and squoly Auckland.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Just describe squooy school.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I love the word schooy And it's a burst of
wind and rain at the same time. So this time
of year, basically in New Zealand anytime, but usually this
time of the year and the start of autumn as well,
you get these heavy showers and they come with a
burst of gale force winds and that's when you're most
likely to get power cuts and those small tornadoes and
that sort of stuff when it's just very chaotic. So yes, squawly,
(01:10):
good burst of wind and rain, and before you know it,
it's sunny again and you're like, well, what was that?
You know, blue blue, everything over and now sun's back out.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
So when you put your forecast out on weather Watch,
why don't you say squawlly next time instead of wind
with rain?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well I do sometimes I do in the Auckland forecast
because I manually write Auckland's were the forecast, because I'm
based here and that's how weather Watch actually started, was
me just doing an Auckland weare the forecast, and got
this demand for around the country. Could you do us?
So when I manually write it myself, I do. I
write squallly showers and then a bracket's I go a
burst of wind with rain, so that people understand it,
(01:44):
because yeah, it's a nautical term, a marine term. Really,
it sounds like would if you're out in the boat,
Sorry to cut you off. It's it's just gonna say,
it's scary when you're out in the boat and you
get a squawll. It's the sort of thing that can
sink a boat if you're not careful.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Sounds like kind of thing a pirate would do, are it'ty?
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah? Squally, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Talking about squally the weather and the likes. What are
we seeing down here in the South. It's been I
don't know, rain this morning at eight o'clock and the
tap turned off about ninety minutes later.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
But it's not ideal for the middle of September. Fill.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, that's that's the cold front coming in. So that's
kind of the main part of it. And the showers
will sort of move on through, but you'll get dryer
spells coming into the mix today, so there's still more
wet weather coming in. We're stuck in this kind of
wet set up for the next twenty four hours. So
today I think a bulk of that wet weather has
moved through, but tomorrow is the main sort of polar
(02:36):
burst of air. So tonight the overnight low is four.
Now that doesn't sound too bad, but keep in mind
there'll be showers developing, so there could be snow flurries
on the ranges overnight tonight and tomorrow, with a maximum
of seven tomorrow and a low tomorrow night of four
with wet weather around, so tomorrow is a bleak day.
And on top of that, of course, you've got the
(02:57):
windshill with a strong westerly could be gusting over seventy
or even ninety k's an hour, so the wind till
tomorrow won't be very good. In fact, even from next
to stay from now on. It drops from about this
evening onwards anyway, and that windchill at the warmest part
of today will be four degrees and most of tomorrow
hobbs around one or two and down to zero tomorrow night.
(03:19):
So that is to be aware of that with newborn
livestock sat tonight tomorrow and into Sunday morning, not very friendly.
The good news says, we go into Sunday by four pm,
the temperature lifts up. The feels like temperature is eight
degrees by four five pm on Sunday evening, so lifting
up again. And then on Monday the air temperature is
(03:40):
the maximum is fifteen and by Tuesday eighteen. So we've
got a couple of cold days and a bit wet, miserable,
and then it lifts back up again in true spring style,
it's warmer with sunny spells coming back in next week,
and the temperatures are sort of a bit all over
the place next week, sort of into the teams for
the most part. One cold day is next Thursday with
a high of ten, but every other day is in
(04:01):
the teens.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
This sounds very complex, fir. Is this the thing for September?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Yeah? The easiest way to say it is, it's just spring.
It it's ups and downs, you know. This September month
is really about winter starting to fade away, but it's
still dominant as far as weather forecasts are. Concerned. That's
why a lot of people go with the astronomical date
of the seasons, which means we're still in spring now
for another ten days or so. Sorry, excuse me, in
(04:28):
winter's still for another ten days or so. So this
weather is going to be like this for at least
for the rest of September. There is no change in sight.
Westerly driven. But these cold fronts in spring are short lived.
So the one that's coming in today tomorrow, that's a
bit more longer lasting, but most other ones, like the
one next Wednesday, is very short lived.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Paper talking about getting a couple of inches of rain
a week. At the moment, are we going to see
precipitation levels sort themselves out?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, The rainfall in Southland is probably i'd say normal
to above normal over the next few weeks, so there's
nothing really dramatic in there. There's no big sort of
you know, eighty milimeter day, at least not on the
Gore side. The eastern side is not so bad. If
you're closer to the western side, over towards Fjordland, I
(05:16):
think your rainfall totals could be over one hundred millimeters
for the rest of the month. But in your part
of the world, maybe thirty millimeters or forty at the
very most coming up over the next ten days. So
it is wet, but it's not it's not, you know, awful,
but it's not great either. I'm trying to find the
silver lining for you. But it's not terrible, but it's
certainly not settled and dry either. It is unsettled because
(05:39):
a lot of cold fronts are clipping the country. There
could be several over the next ten days. But because
they're westerly driven and they're moving fast and those strong winds,
they don't linger along with the wet weather. So that's
the positive silver lighting I can give you.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So that's just the same for the country.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Yeah, the whole country. In fact, on Tomorrow, Saturday, the
whole country's got gale force wins. The damaging gusts go
from Stuart Island to the far North at some point
over the next thirty six hours. So this is a
nationwide blast of wind. And this windy westerly will be
off and on over the next week as well. High
pressure is not over the top of US, it's to
(06:15):
the north of US, and the lows apart from one
today over the north Island. Most of the low pressure
is south of New Zealand, and so that puts Southland
and the whole South Island on the outer edges of
the high pressure zone, but also the outer edges of
the low pressure zone, so that brings them the windy stuff.
That's why it's weather.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
You're still hearing of a few frosts occurring around the
province as well as crazy as it sounds to go
after this weather.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Yeah, in fact, you know, we've got frost maps on
our website which show a lot of places in the
frost zone. But actually we need to update those maps
because it also means below zero. So if it's windy
and below zero, you don't usually get a frost. And
so that's what we said. When you look at the
ruralweather dot co dot MZ frost forecast, because that captures
(06:58):
into a cloud cover butchers and if it's raining or windy,
and so if you look at the general frost mat
you see frost around Southland. When you look at the
actual frost forecast that we're all weather, it doesn't show frost.
And so what that's saying is temperatures could get down
below zero. While it's what it's windy, so you might
not get a frost from that, but it will be
(07:19):
very cold, and so that is a risk over the
next forty eight hours of some of that weather, mostly
at nighttime and slightly higher elevations even than where you are.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So Dargan of weather Watch, we always appreciate your time
on the muster, my friend, have a squawally weekend, maybe
wild and who knows what's going to happen, right, Yeah,
you too, have a good squallly one lissome til Dargan
of weather Watch. Every Friday here on the must Oh,
I out to Donta. Next we catch out with Michelle What,
executive producer of the Country in this week's Country Crossover.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Gold Were on Friday eight
You know what, I'm a jigg.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
Gold beer on a Friday night, a pair of jeans
and figures, rap and radio and it's time to catch
up with so Duncan from winter Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
So don't can help things?
Speaker 3 (00:40):
Very good. Thank you from a very windy and squoly Auckland.
Speaker 1 (00:45):
Just describe squooy school.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
I love the word schooy And it's a burst of
wind and rain at the same time. So this time
of year, basically in New Zealand anytime, but usually this
time of the year and the start of autumn as well,
you get these heavy showers and they come with a
burst of gale force winds and that's when you're most
likely to get power cuts and those small tornadoes and
that sort of stuff when it's just very chaotic. So yes, squawly,
(01:10):
good burst of wind and rain, and before you know it,
it's sunny again and you're like, well, what was that?
You know, blue blue, everything over and now sun's back out.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
So when you put your forecast out on weather Watch,
why don't you say squawlly next time instead of wind
with rain?
Speaker 3 (01:24):
Well I do sometimes I do in the Auckland forecast
because I manually write Auckland's were the forecast, because I'm
based here and that's how weather Watch actually started, was
me just doing an Auckland weare the forecast, and got
this demand for around the country. Could you do us?
So when I manually write it myself, I do. I
write squallly showers and then a bracket's I go a
burst of wind with rain, so that people understand it,
(01:44):
because yeah, it's a nautical term, a marine term. Really,
it sounds like would if you're out in the boat,
Sorry to cut you off. It's it's just gonna say,
it's scary when you're out in the boat and you
get a squawll. It's the sort of thing that can
sink a boat if you're not careful.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Sounds like kind of thing a pirate would do, are it'ty?
Speaker 3 (02:01):
Yeah? Squally, Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Talking about squally the weather and the likes. What are
we seeing down here in the South. It's been I
don't know, rain this morning at eight o'clock and the
tap turned off about ninety minutes later.
Speaker 1 (02:13):
But it's not ideal for the middle of September. Fill.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
Yeah, that's that's the cold front coming in. So that's
kind of the main part of it. And the showers
will sort of move on through, but you'll get dryer
spells coming into the mix today, so there's still more
wet weather coming in. We're stuck in this kind of
wet set up for the next twenty four hours. So
today I think a bulk of that wet weather has
moved through, but tomorrow is the main sort of polar
(02:36):
burst of air. So tonight the overnight low is four.
Now that doesn't sound too bad, but keep in mind
there'll be showers developing, so there could be snow flurries
on the ranges overnight tonight and tomorrow, with a maximum
of seven tomorrow and a low tomorrow night of four
with wet weather around, so tomorrow is a bleak day.
And on top of that, of course, you've got the
(02:57):
windshill with a strong westerly could be gusting over seventy
or even ninety k's an hour, so the wind till
tomorrow won't be very good. In fact, even from next
to stay from now on. It drops from about this
evening onwards anyway, and that windchill at the warmest part
of today will be four degrees and most of tomorrow
hobbs around one or two and down to zero tomorrow night.
(03:19):
So that is to be aware of that with newborn
livestock sat tonight tomorrow and into Sunday morning, not very friendly.
The good news says, we go into Sunday by four pm,
the temperature lifts up. The feels like temperature is eight
degrees by four five pm on Sunday evening, so lifting
up again. And then on Monday the air temperature is
(03:40):
the maximum is fifteen and by Tuesday eighteen. So we've
got a couple of cold days and a bit wet, miserable,
and then it lifts back up again in true spring style,
it's warmer with sunny spells coming back in next week,
and the temperatures are sort of a bit all over
the place next week, sort of into the teams for
the most part. One cold day is next Thursday with
a high of ten, but every other day is in
(04:01):
the teens.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
This sounds very complex, fir. Is this the thing for September?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Yeah? The easiest way to say it is, it's just spring.
It it's ups and downs, you know. This September month
is really about winter starting to fade away, but it's
still dominant as far as weather forecasts are. Concerned. That's
why a lot of people go with the astronomical date
of the seasons, which means we're still in spring now
for another ten days or so. Sorry, excuse me, in
(04:28):
winter's still for another ten days or so. So this
weather is going to be like this for at least
for the rest of September. There is no change in sight.
Westerly driven. But these cold fronts in spring are short lived.
So the one that's coming in today tomorrow, that's a
bit more longer lasting, but most other ones, like the
one next Wednesday, is very short lived.
Speaker 2 (04:49):
Paper talking about getting a couple of inches of rain
a week. At the moment, are we going to see
precipitation levels sort themselves out?
Speaker 3 (04:56):
Yeah, The rainfall in Southland is probably i'd say normal
to above normal over the next few weeks, so there's
nothing really dramatic in there. There's no big sort of
you know, eighty milimeter day, at least not on the
Gore side. The eastern side is not so bad. If
you're closer to the western side, over towards Fjordland, I
(05:16):
think your rainfall totals could be over one hundred millimeters
for the rest of the month. But in your part
of the world, maybe thirty millimeters or forty at the
very most coming up over the next ten days. So
it is wet, but it's not it's not, you know, awful,
but it's not great either. I'm trying to find the
silver lining for you. But it's not terrible, but it's
certainly not settled and dry either. It is unsettled because
(05:39):
a lot of cold fronts are clipping the country. There
could be several over the next ten days. But because
they're westerly driven and they're moving fast and those strong winds,
they don't linger along with the wet weather. So that's
the positive silver lighting I can give you.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
So that's just the same for the country.
Speaker 3 (05:55):
Yeah, the whole country. In fact, on Tomorrow, Saturday, the
whole country's got gale force wins. The damaging gusts go
from Stuart Island to the far North at some point
over the next thirty six hours. So this is a
nationwide blast of wind. And this windy westerly will be
off and on over the next week as well. High
pressure is not over the top of US, it's to
(06:15):
the north of US, and the lows apart from one
today over the north Island. Most of the low pressure
is south of New Zealand, and so that puts Southland
and the whole South Island on the outer edges of
the high pressure zone, but also the outer edges of
the low pressure zone, so that brings them the windy stuff.
That's why it's weather.
Speaker 2 (06:32):
You're still hearing of a few frosts occurring around the
province as well as crazy as it sounds to go
after this weather.
Speaker 3 (06:38):
Yeah, in fact, you know, we've got frost maps on
our website which show a lot of places in the
frost zone. But actually we need to update those maps
because it also means below zero. So if it's windy
and below zero, you don't usually get a frost. And
so that's what we said. When you look at the
ruralweather dot co dot MZ frost forecast, because that captures
(06:58):
into a cloud cover butchers and if it's raining or windy,
and so if you look at the general frost mat
you see frost around Southland. When you look at the
actual frost forecast that we're all weather, it doesn't show frost.
And so what that's saying is temperatures could get down
below zero. While it's what it's windy, so you might
not get a frost from that, but it will be
(07:19):
very cold, and so that is a risk over the
next forty eight hours of some of that weather, mostly
at nighttime and slightly higher elevations even than where you are.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So Dargan of weather Watch, we always appreciate your time
on the muster, my friend, have a squawally weekend, maybe
wild and who knows what's going to happen, right, Yeah,
you too, have a good squallly one lissome til Dargan
of weather Watch. Every Friday here on the must Oh,
I out to Donta. Next we catch out with Michelle What,
executive producer of the Country in this week's Country Crossover.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
Gold Were on Friday eight
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