August 29, 2025 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch talks the southern weather.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Right on the show we have right now Philip Duncan
from weather Watch. Good afternoon, Philip. Here you are.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
I'm very good mate, How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yeah, very good. Thanks. You can't complain with the We're
getting a little bit of rain, but we're getting some
not bad days out of it too.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah, that's good. It's been typical end of the season
and you know, going out of winter going into spring.
Although I'm saying that, you know the spring where the
pattern at the beginning is almost identical to the winter,
so we don't really see a massive, massive shift. But
what we are seeing now is sort of days in
between the really wintry stuff where the temperatures kind of
(00:46):
bounce up a bit, and that's a sign that we
are changing seasons. But I got to say, we are
still in a bit of wintry weather because the polar
airflow that's been moving up and around the country a
lot over this month around the South Island, especially the
lower half of the South Island as we go into
the start of spring, so it's not going to magically
(01:07):
change overnight. And that's why a lot of people don't
go with the meteorological date for the start of spring.
They go with the astronomical date, which is still three
weeks away.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Could we change it, maybe the terminology from polar whether
to bipolar.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Or that sums up spring, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Because yeah, we're getting well. We're meant to be in
for a bit of a sting in the town next week,
I think. But as you can, you'll probably allude to.
But you know, it got cold yesterday and then it
came out quite nice. Now afternoon, rained overnight. Then it's
a beautiful day out there.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Now. Everything is moving very fast at the moment. So
once you get the reason why weather forecasters talk about
spring earlier maybe than some people do, is because we
see it in the weather forecast. You see it in
the actual weather maps, and that is often defined as westerlies.
And just think about a westerly quarter wind. That means
it's always got west in it, but it can swing
(01:57):
northwest and southwest northwest. It feels like spring. Lambs are
bouncing around outside. We're all feeling like summer is coming.
And when it tilts southwest only a slight difference, that's
when everyone goes, when will this winter end? It's miserable,
it's cold, it's raining, and that's what we've seen a
lot of as we go through the next ten days,
a lot of northwest southwest winds. Temperatures are not really
(02:21):
dramatic for you, but hints of days where it's a
little bit milder where you get up to twelve or thirteen,
and other days where the maximum may only be around
seven or eight, and so it's not dramatic in any
kind of sense. But we are into that time of
year where obviously if you're lambing and carving, which people
are doing already are, then temperatures that are like this
with rain around is not not ideal. So you just
(02:43):
got to manage that, I guess, yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
And it's funny you say about that the westerly direction.
I remember going years ago lambing and or before lambing,
sometimes the rotten weather coming in actually felt like lambing.
Whether you say it come from the southwest, go that
reminds me of lamming last year. Hopefully it's not going
to be like too much of that this year.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
No. I mean, the good thing about a windy westerly
is that everything moves fast, and so you know, like
the downpours don't linger, snow flurries don't linger. Everything moves
fast and goes through. Now the wind can be a
problem though, because obviously if you've got web chills, that's
really tough for the newborns. But the good news is,
you know, like I say, the winds are going to
(03:26):
swing around from warm to cold. The polar air that
that is the airflow that sits predominantly around Antarctica. And
when we get a southerly blast or sometimes you hear
in the news, you know, the pole of vortex. That
is when that it's kind of like a river that
bursts its banks and it comes over where, you know,
to a flood plate where you would expect it's but
(03:46):
it's not normally sitting there. The water is normally in
the river. So with the cold polar air, it normally
sits south of US, and then when you get these
wintry outbreaks it spills northwinds, it comes right over the
top of US, it comes into even Queensland of Australia.
And that's what's happening at the moment this month. That's
why it's colder. But it's it's coming, you know, from
the southern Ocean, it's not coming from Antarctica. We have
(04:08):
not had one single Antarctic blast this year where where
the wind properly came off Antarctica, and if we did
have that, because I do recall talking about that at
one moment. It was only one day, very briefly for
about twelve hours. But this winter has not been as
brutal as it can be. But in saying that, it's
been colder than previous years.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
It has been, but it's been settled, so you generally
know you're going to get a good day out the
other end from it. Other than there's probably ten days
and June early July there where we hit a lot
of rain and it was just dark and cold for
a few days. But we've had good frosts, which for
me would point to more of a traditional winter.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
That's right. And even the North Island, you know, like
I to me, White Catsole in the North Island is
my northern measurement of frost. It's kind of like if
you're on the beach and you go how far are
a wave crashes and it's you know, the high tides
in how far is that way? You go and you
can usually see the seaweed on the line and go, oh,
that's kind of as far as it will go up,
might go a little further than that. Cold is the same,
(05:07):
and so frosty weather goes up to about Wykas Bay
a plenty area fades out about Auckland. So when you
start seeing frosts in Auckland and Northland, you know that
that wave of cold air that's moving over the country
is really significant where you are. So I'm the only
way to forecast in the country. Who when I talk
about frosts in Auckland, I'm doing that to actually highlight
how cold it is, how the parts of New Zealand.
(05:29):
I'm not one of those guys at Auckland Cedric because
I you know, most city people don't care about the weather,
like the rural folk too.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
They moan about it, but they don't. They don't use
it the same way as as a lot of the rules.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
I thought you were just checking it out there for
a bit of sympathy for the jaffers.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
No, not at all. No, No, they don't care like
that's the thing is something even from a business model.
You know, there's one and a half million people in
Auckland or sitting there, and I don't cater to them
because there's no money that they don't They're never gonna,
you know, really get them get into my website and
to surfing and anything in its outdoorsy.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Yeah, correct, Yeah. What about with the spring coming, you know,
well it's just around the corner. Are we looking pretty
seattle going forward? Or is it just going to be
more of the same.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I think at this stage we are seeing a slight
shift in the weather pantern. So it's a weather forecast
or what I look for as we go into spring.
First of all, are those westerlies coming in and are
they lasting for more than a day or two? And
if they look like they're lasting for a couple of weeks,
that's a good sign that things are changing. And the
reason why that's a good sign that we're going into spring.
(06:36):
Or when I say good, I mean, you know, like
a firm sign that we're going into spring. Get those westerlies.
You need two things. You need big lows south of
New Zealand, but you also need big highs just to
our north. And that is exactly what we're seeing in
the in the change to the weather pattern around Australia
and New Zealand over the next two weeks, more high
pressure coming through places like Queensland, the North Tasman Sea
(06:59):
and the upper part of the North Island up towards
New Caledonia. So high pressure acts as a lid. Low
pressure can't go into that it tries to, and when
it does that, you get those big windy westerlies halfway
between the highs and blows and that has smack bang
over in New Zealand over the next two weeks. So
that is a bit of a change to our weather
pattern because it's got a bit for uniform or uniformity
(07:20):
to it. But it's you know, any time we could
have a major winter storm over the next couple of months.
So I'm not getting ahead of myself, but we do
seem to be going into a bit of a traditional
westerly set up, at least for the first half of
the month.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Perfect we need that change.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Yeah, it's good, I think, you know. I said to
someone on a radio station yesterday that the lack of
complaints from the rural secture. And I don't just mean
if you live rural, but like a farmer and an orchardist,
anyone that's growing outdoors or working outdoors, very few complaints
this year compared to previous winters, which makes me think
there's been a pretty good balancing act for a number
(07:59):
of regions. And if it's you know, never it's never perfect,
but it's maybe not as bad as other years. Even
if it's been a bit colder.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
It just means you've done your job well or maybe
it maybe so yeah, okay mate, look I'll have to
wrap it up there, but thank you for your time
again and we'll be back in touch.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
My pleasure. Enjoy the weather over the weekend. It's going
to be a bit up and down, and certainly went
the on Monday.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Thanks mate. You don't know's go, let's gone.
Right on the show we have right now Philip Duncan
from weather Watch. Good afternoon, Philip. Here you are.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
I'm very good mate, How are you?
Speaker 1 (00:18):
Yeah, very good. Thanks. You can't complain with the We're
getting a little bit of rain, but we're getting some
not bad days out of it too.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
Yeah, that's good. It's been typical end of the season
and you know, going out of winter going into spring.
Although I'm saying that, you know the spring where the
pattern at the beginning is almost identical to the winter,
so we don't really see a massive, massive shift. But
what we are seeing now is sort of days in
between the really wintry stuff where the temperatures kind of
(00:46):
bounce up a bit, and that's a sign that we
are changing seasons. But I got to say, we are
still in a bit of wintry weather because the polar
airflow that's been moving up and around the country a
lot over this month around the South Island, especially the
lower half of the South Island as we go into
the start of spring, so it's not going to magically
(01:07):
change overnight. And that's why a lot of people don't
go with the meteorological date for the start of spring.
They go with the astronomical date, which is still three
weeks away.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
Could we change it, maybe the terminology from polar whether
to bipolar.
Speaker 2 (01:19):
Or that sums up spring, that's for sure.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Because yeah, we're getting well. We're meant to be in
for a bit of a sting in the town next week,
I think. But as you can, you'll probably allude to.
But you know, it got cold yesterday and then it
came out quite nice. Now afternoon, rained overnight. Then it's
a beautiful day out there.
Speaker 2 (01:36):
Now. Everything is moving very fast at the moment. So
once you get the reason why weather forecasters talk about
spring earlier maybe than some people do, is because we
see it in the weather forecast. You see it in
the actual weather maps, and that is often defined as westerlies.
And just think about a westerly quarter wind. That means
it's always got west in it, but it can swing
(01:57):
northwest and southwest northwest. It feels like spring. Lambs are
bouncing around outside. We're all feeling like summer is coming.
And when it tilts southwest only a slight difference, that's
when everyone goes, when will this winter end? It's miserable,
it's cold, it's raining, and that's what we've seen a
lot of as we go through the next ten days,
a lot of northwest southwest winds. Temperatures are not really
(02:21):
dramatic for you, but hints of days where it's a
little bit milder where you get up to twelve or thirteen,
and other days where the maximum may only be around
seven or eight, and so it's not dramatic in any
kind of sense. But we are into that time of
year where obviously if you're lambing and carving, which people
are doing already are, then temperatures that are like this
with rain around is not not ideal. So you just
(02:43):
got to manage that, I guess, yeah.
Speaker 1 (02:45):
And it's funny you say about that the westerly direction.
I remember going years ago lambing and or before lambing,
sometimes the rotten weather coming in actually felt like lambing.
Whether you say it come from the southwest, go that
reminds me of lamming last year. Hopefully it's not going
to be like too much of that this year.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
No. I mean, the good thing about a windy westerly
is that everything moves fast, and so you know, like
the downpours don't linger, snow flurries don't linger. Everything moves
fast and goes through. Now the wind can be a
problem though, because obviously if you've got web chills, that's
really tough for the newborns. But the good news is,
you know, like I say, the winds are going to
(03:26):
swing around from warm to cold. The polar air that
that is the airflow that sits predominantly around Antarctica. And
when we get a southerly blast or sometimes you hear
in the news, you know, the pole of vortex. That
is when that it's kind of like a river that
bursts its banks and it comes over where, you know,
to a flood plate where you would expect it's but
(03:46):
it's not normally sitting there. The water is normally in
the river. So with the cold polar air, it normally
sits south of US, and then when you get these
wintry outbreaks it spills northwinds, it comes right over the
top of US, it comes into even Queensland of Australia.
And that's what's happening at the moment this month. That's
why it's colder. But it's it's coming, you know, from
the southern Ocean, it's not coming from Antarctica. We have
(04:08):
not had one single Antarctic blast this year where where
the wind properly came off Antarctica, and if we did
have that, because I do recall talking about that at
one moment. It was only one day, very briefly for
about twelve hours. But this winter has not been as
brutal as it can be. But in saying that, it's
been colder than previous years.
Speaker 1 (04:28):
It has been, but it's been settled, so you generally
know you're going to get a good day out the
other end from it. Other than there's probably ten days
and June early July there where we hit a lot
of rain and it was just dark and cold for
a few days. But we've had good frosts, which for
me would point to more of a traditional winter.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
That's right. And even the North Island, you know, like
I to me, White Catsole in the North Island is
my northern measurement of frost. It's kind of like if
you're on the beach and you go how far are
a wave crashes and it's you know, the high tides
in how far is that way? You go and you
can usually see the seaweed on the line and go, oh,
that's kind of as far as it will go up,
might go a little further than that. Cold is the same,
(05:07):
and so frosty weather goes up to about Wykas Bay
a plenty area fades out about Auckland. So when you
start seeing frosts in Auckland and Northland, you know that
that wave of cold air that's moving over the country
is really significant where you are. So I'm the only
way to forecast in the country. Who when I talk
about frosts in Auckland, I'm doing that to actually highlight
how cold it is, how the parts of New Zealand.
(05:29):
I'm not one of those guys at Auckland Cedric because
I you know, most city people don't care about the weather,
like the rural folk too.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
They moan about it, but they don't. They don't use
it the same way as as a lot of the rules.
Speaker 1 (05:44):
I thought you were just checking it out there for
a bit of sympathy for the jaffers.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
No, not at all. No, No, they don't care like
that's the thing is something even from a business model.
You know, there's one and a half million people in
Auckland or sitting there, and I don't cater to them
because there's no money that they don't They're never gonna,
you know, really get them get into my website and
to surfing and anything in its outdoorsy.
Speaker 1 (06:05):
Yeah, correct, Yeah. What about with the spring coming, you know,
well it's just around the corner. Are we looking pretty
seattle going forward? Or is it just going to be
more of the same.
Speaker 2 (06:16):
I think at this stage we are seeing a slight
shift in the weather pantern. So it's a weather forecast
or what I look for as we go into spring.
First of all, are those westerlies coming in and are
they lasting for more than a day or two? And
if they look like they're lasting for a couple of weeks,
that's a good sign that things are changing. And the
reason why that's a good sign that we're going into spring.
(06:36):
Or when I say good, I mean, you know, like
a firm sign that we're going into spring. Get those westerlies.
You need two things. You need big lows south of
New Zealand, but you also need big highs just to
our north. And that is exactly what we're seeing in
the in the change to the weather pattern around Australia
and New Zealand over the next two weeks, more high
pressure coming through places like Queensland, the North Tasman Sea
(06:59):
and the upper part of the North Island up towards
New Caledonia. So high pressure acts as a lid. Low
pressure can't go into that it tries to, and when
it does that, you get those big windy westerlies halfway
between the highs and blows and that has smack bang
over in New Zealand over the next two weeks. So
that is a bit of a change to our weather
pattern because it's got a bit for uniform or uniformity
(07:20):
to it. But it's you know, any time we could
have a major winter storm over the next couple of months.
So I'm not getting ahead of myself, but we do
seem to be going into a bit of a traditional
westerly set up, at least for the first half of
the month.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
Perfect we need that change.
Speaker 2 (07:36):
Yeah, it's good, I think, you know. I said to
someone on a radio station yesterday that the lack of
complaints from the rural secture. And I don't just mean
if you live rural, but like a farmer and an orchardist,
anyone that's growing outdoors or working outdoors, very few complaints
this year compared to previous winters, which makes me think
there's been a pretty good balancing act for a number
(07:59):
of regions. And if it's you know, never it's never perfect,
but it's maybe not as bad as other years. Even
if it's been a bit colder.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
It just means you've done your job well or maybe
it maybe so yeah, okay mate, look I'll have to
wrap it up there, but thank you for your time
again and we'll be back in touch.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
My pleasure. Enjoy the weather over the weekend. It's going
to be a bit up and down, and certainly went
the on Monday.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
Thanks mate. You don't know's go, let's gone.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.