September 4, 2025 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at a cooler edge in the forecast over the next seven days in the south.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
E shine.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Why don't you hellin s It's time to catch up
with Phil Duncan out of weather Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Good afternoon, Phil, Good afternoon, mister Muir.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
How's everything been over the last We haven't spoken to
you for a couple of weeks? Actually, hell are you?
Speaker 1 (00:39):
I know we haven't talked since it was since winter
of twenty twenty five was the last time we talked.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
No, we sit there and reminisce about winter and hell,
it was so good to us down here in the
Deep South over the last couple of weeks. So we've
gone into a real spring mode by the locks of it.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yeah, you're definitely in the spring mode now. Yeah, the
temperatures are up and down. They're still more days that
are wintry than the summer light, that's for sure. But
we're seeing some nice warmer days going into the nex
now as opposed to where we say we're maybe a
month ago, so on the way coming up over the
next week. Yeah, the temperatures are up and down. In fact,
Sunday there is a sutherly going nationwide on Sunday, the
(01:19):
cold fronts coming in now. As you probably already could tell, tonight,
temperatures drop tomorrow a few showers, a little bit windy,
but Sundays the day when the temperatures really drop, and
so your maximum is only seven and you're low as one.
But then by Monday, the following day, the maximum jumps
to fourteen, and by Tuesday jumps to seventeen, and then
(01:39):
Wednesday you're back down to nine and again for the
rest of the next week. So it's up and then
down a bit and then sort of bounces back up again.
And so when you see those temperatures doing that, along
with the wind coming and going, we're seeing a lot
of westerly winds off and on over the next next
ten days. And so that just to me is sort
of saying, Hi, this is spring. I'm here.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Anything sinners as far as wind chill.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
As far as wind chills concerned, maybe a little bit
over the weekend. Yeah, So this cold front coming in tonight,
the measurement to me is how far up the country
it goes, because that tells me how grunty it is
where you are. And this one is going right up
to Northland by Sunday, so that is a decent polar blast.
So the wind chill will drop. So as of midday
today that as warmest today gets by midday, the temperature
(02:24):
starts to drop and it drops all the way through
until tomorrow morning, keeps dropping till about seven or eight
tomorrow morning, so the wind chill tomorrow morning will be
about minus two and it warms up tomorrow as far
as wind chill is concerned, to about plus six and
then back down again to minus two on on Sunday
with that cold wind blowing. The warmest it'll be is
(02:45):
three degrees in the wind. So if you've got showers
around a temperature of seven and it feels like of three,
that is not very good for newborn livestock. The good
news is that it bounces back into warmer again by Monday,
but we do have a winter weather conditions really kicking
in from tonight through until about Monday morning, so newborn
(03:07):
lambs in particular just be aware of that. Hopefully it's
not too bad, but it is going to be cold,
very cold, just for the weekend and bounces back up
again on Monday as spring reminds us it's now coming in.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Well, we had dirty, dirty showers here in Southland earlier
on in the week. You know what it was like
during spring. Phil you get about twenty minutes of pouring
rain coming in sideways, sun comes out for about four minutes,
and then you're back to the ore in some repeat cycle.
That's just spring just knocking on their doorstep, I suppose.
And is that what we're going to see over the
next two or three weeks.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Yeah, it basically is. I got a comment on YouTube.
I think it was from Australia, but a comment that
said pretty hard to trust an expert, and the word
expert was in speech marks. When they say springs here
when it's still winter, spring goes to the equinox. I
get that every year from people from a weather four
(04:00):
point of view, I don't care about what the date is.
To me, it's about what the weather pattern is doing.
We're very much into a spring weather pattern now. It's
you know, plants are different plants. Some of them need
to get to the equinox before they can start changing.
They need that more daylight than darkness. That doesn't really
switch for another few weeks. So from a mother nature
(04:21):
point of view with plants and growth, yeah, spring doesn't
start for a couple of weeks. But from a weather
point of view, spring's been here for the last couple
of weeks, and that is but defined by a lot
of westerly winds uptick and temperatures and also lots of thunderstorms.
And they're not so much coming into Southland, but the
West Coast has said thunderstorms every single day this week.
(04:42):
If you look at at nighttime, there's a good chance
you'll see that what they call it wildfire, the flashing
lights the distance. So I mean that that is going
to be around all this week. Well, the week's nearly done,
but it's carrying on and so that like this morning,
there are hundreds of thunderstorms occurring this morning just over
on the West Coast. So that is the sign of
the cold front moving up the country. Thunderstorms, westerly temperature swings.
(05:04):
That's a sign that the spring where the pattern is here.
Regardless of what the data is on the calendar, but.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
The next couple of days are going to be the
ones to look out for in particular, Yeah, will be.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
I mean even just if you go beyond South London
and you talk about frosty weather, you know we've got
frost coming back. And on Sunday they spread up into
the North Island and to Monday and so you know,
frosty weather in September is a problem for some growers.
Kiwi fruit growers don't want to have frosts coming up,
you know, in the next couple of weeks. Some of
the great growers that don't want that as well. So
(05:36):
you've got lots of different things going on, and then
of course lambing and carvings. That's my biggest concern at
the moment. So the good news, like I say, these
cold blasts are short lived, but I know what it
was like. I grew up in a sheep country and
Bay of Plenty and had pet lambs as a cad
and I remember what it was like that a wet,
cold night, even up in Wycuto and Bay of Plenty
(05:58):
could kill newborn lambs. So just the next twenty four
hours or forty eight hours, sorry, really Sunday's the cold one,
will be a bit rough. But the good news is
next week it does bounce back and there's not a
lot of frosty weather coming in either because of the
wind and the cloud. So Monday morning probably is the
only really day that's got a frost rest coming through.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Point you Okay, let's compare to September twelve, months ago,
which was the September we don't like to refer so
is it totally different?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
So this year is not lining up to be overly wet.
The rain is more likely to be falling on the
west coast as we see a lot of westerly winds developing.
But as we go further into October, that westerly pattern
can become very messed up. November it's usually quite orderly,
but September October really big highs, really big lows. Winter
(06:47):
is only slowly coming to an end. Summer is not
really even too much on the horizon. So we're in
a funny time of the year where predictability goes out
the window, so you never really know what's around the corner.
But at this stage there doesn't appear to be anything
too alarming coming into Southland, not yet anyway. I mean
that could change by the time we talk next week.
But over the next ten days nothing's jumping out as
(07:08):
being too alarming. But this weekend that polar blast will
be will be a cold one, especially on Sunday Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Sold don't go to weather watch. We always appreciate your
time on the muster. Enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You too, buddy.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Nice hetting again, so don't going of weather watch. This
is the muster up. Next we're away to Stuart Island,
Bruce Ford. Let's have a catch up.
E shine.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Why don't you hellin s It's time to catch up
with Phil Duncan out of weather Watch.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Good afternoon, Phil, Good afternoon, mister Muir.
Speaker 2 (00:34):
How's everything been over the last We haven't spoken to
you for a couple of weeks? Actually, hell are you?
Speaker 1 (00:39):
I know we haven't talked since it was since winter
of twenty twenty five was the last time we talked.
Speaker 2 (00:45):
No, we sit there and reminisce about winter and hell,
it was so good to us down here in the
Deep South over the last couple of weeks. So we've
gone into a real spring mode by the locks of it.
Speaker 1 (00:55):
Yeah, you're definitely in the spring mode now. Yeah, the
temperatures are up and down. They're still more days that
are wintry than the summer light, that's for sure. But
we're seeing some nice warmer days going into the nex
now as opposed to where we say we're maybe a
month ago, so on the way coming up over the
next week. Yeah, the temperatures are up and down. In fact,
Sunday there is a sutherly going nationwide on Sunday, the
(01:19):
cold fronts coming in now. As you probably already could tell, tonight,
temperatures drop tomorrow a few showers, a little bit windy,
but Sundays the day when the temperatures really drop, and
so your maximum is only seven and you're low as one.
But then by Monday, the following day, the maximum jumps
to fourteen, and by Tuesday jumps to seventeen, and then
(01:39):
Wednesday you're back down to nine and again for the
rest of the next week. So it's up and then
down a bit and then sort of bounces back up again.
And so when you see those temperatures doing that, along
with the wind coming and going, we're seeing a lot
of westerly winds off and on over the next next
ten days. And so that just to me is sort
of saying, Hi, this is spring. I'm here.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Anything sinners as far as wind chill.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
As far as wind chills concerned, maybe a little bit
over the weekend. Yeah, So this cold front coming in tonight,
the measurement to me is how far up the country
it goes, because that tells me how grunty it is
where you are. And this one is going right up
to Northland by Sunday, so that is a decent polar blast.
So the wind chill will drop. So as of midday
today that as warmest today gets by midday, the temperature
(02:24):
starts to drop and it drops all the way through
until tomorrow morning, keeps dropping till about seven or eight
tomorrow morning, so the wind chill tomorrow morning will be
about minus two and it warms up tomorrow as far
as wind chill is concerned, to about plus six and
then back down again to minus two on on Sunday
with that cold wind blowing. The warmest it'll be is
(02:45):
three degrees in the wind. So if you've got showers
around a temperature of seven and it feels like of three,
that is not very good for newborn livestock. The good
news is that it bounces back into warmer again by Monday,
but we do have a winter weather conditions really kicking
in from tonight through until about Monday morning, so newborn
(03:07):
lambs in particular just be aware of that. Hopefully it's
not too bad, but it is going to be cold,
very cold, just for the weekend and bounces back up
again on Monday as spring reminds us it's now coming in.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Well, we had dirty, dirty showers here in Southland earlier
on in the week. You know what it was like
during spring. Phil you get about twenty minutes of pouring
rain coming in sideways, sun comes out for about four minutes,
and then you're back to the ore in some repeat cycle.
That's just spring just knocking on their doorstep, I suppose.
And is that what we're going to see over the
next two or three weeks.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Yeah, it basically is. I got a comment on YouTube.
I think it was from Australia, but a comment that
said pretty hard to trust an expert, and the word
expert was in speech marks. When they say springs here
when it's still winter, spring goes to the equinox. I
get that every year from people from a weather four
(04:00):
point of view, I don't care about what the date is.
To me, it's about what the weather pattern is doing.
We're very much into a spring weather pattern now. It's
you know, plants are different plants. Some of them need
to get to the equinox before they can start changing.
They need that more daylight than darkness. That doesn't really
switch for another few weeks. So from a mother nature
(04:21):
point of view with plants and growth, yeah, spring doesn't
start for a couple of weeks. But from a weather
point of view, spring's been here for the last couple
of weeks, and that is but defined by a lot
of westerly winds uptick and temperatures and also lots of thunderstorms.
And they're not so much coming into Southland, but the
West Coast has said thunderstorms every single day this week.
(04:42):
If you look at at nighttime, there's a good chance
you'll see that what they call it wildfire, the flashing
lights the distance. So I mean that that is going
to be around all this week. Well, the week's nearly done,
but it's carrying on and so that like this morning,
there are hundreds of thunderstorms occurring this morning just over
on the West Coast. So that is the sign of
the cold front moving up the country. Thunderstorms, westerly temperature swings.
(05:04):
That's a sign that the spring where the pattern is here.
Regardless of what the data is on the calendar, but.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
The next couple of days are going to be the
ones to look out for in particular, Yeah, will be.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
I mean even just if you go beyond South London
and you talk about frosty weather, you know we've got
frost coming back. And on Sunday they spread up into
the North Island and to Monday and so you know,
frosty weather in September is a problem for some growers.
Kiwi fruit growers don't want to have frosts coming up,
you know, in the next couple of weeks. Some of
the great growers that don't want that as well. So
(05:36):
you've got lots of different things going on, and then
of course lambing and carvings. That's my biggest concern at
the moment. So the good news, like I say, these
cold blasts are short lived, but I know what it
was like. I grew up in a sheep country and
Bay of Plenty and had pet lambs as a cad
and I remember what it was like that a wet,
cold night, even up in Wycuto and Bay of Plenty
(05:58):
could kill newborn lambs. So just the next twenty four
hours or forty eight hours, sorry, really Sunday's the cold one,
will be a bit rough. But the good news is
next week it does bounce back and there's not a
lot of frosty weather coming in either because of the
wind and the cloud. So Monday morning probably is the
only really day that's got a frost rest coming through.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
Point you Okay, let's compare to September twelve, months ago,
which was the September we don't like to refer so
is it totally different?
Speaker 1 (06:26):
So this year is not lining up to be overly wet.
The rain is more likely to be falling on the
west coast as we see a lot of westerly winds developing.
But as we go further into October, that westerly pattern
can become very messed up. November it's usually quite orderly,
but September October really big highs, really big lows. Winter
(06:47):
is only slowly coming to an end. Summer is not
really even too much on the horizon. So we're in
a funny time of the year where predictability goes out
the window, so you never really know what's around the corner.
But at this stage there doesn't appear to be anything
too alarming coming into Southland, not yet anyway. I mean
that could change by the time we talk next week.
But over the next ten days nothing's jumping out as
(07:08):
being too alarming. But this weekend that polar blast will
be will be a cold one, especially on Sunday Sunday night.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
Sold don't go to weather watch. We always appreciate your
time on the muster. Enjoy the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:18):
You too, buddy.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
Nice hetting again, so don't going of weather watch. This
is the muster up. Next we're away to Stuart Island,
Bruce Ford. Let's have a catch up.
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