September 18, 2025 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Speaker 1 (00:05):
Time to catch up with Phil Duncan and off weather Watch.
(00:28):
Get a fell house, Saints.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I'm good made. How are you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Not too bad? It's been a hectic week, but it's Friday.
It doesn't mean much in the middle of September, though,
we've seen some average weather, to say the least. Jordy
yed from over Riverton, quoting two hundred and twenty miles
of rain for September so far. Are we going to
see some light at the end of the tunnel fill?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Gosh, that is a lot of rain, and yeah, certainly
some decent gown pours around over the last week. The
good news is, yeah, we do see some dryer where
they're coming in. It's not going to switch dry, but
the amount of rain that's coming through looks a lot lower.
And so you're seeing sort of daily rainfall totals of
you know, three millimeters and one millimeter and maybe the biggest,
(01:10):
the wettest day I can see is Saturday, the twenty
eighth of September, with six point one millimeters, So that's
that's better. And the temperatures they're up a little bit
in some of the daytime temperatures, but the overnight lows
are still down, and so it's it's to some degree
a fairly normal September, except obviously it's started off wet
(01:31):
and cold. We're sort of seeing a bit more normality
perhaps coming through over the next ten days for the
Southland region.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
We still temperatures are in the six to nine range
at the moment. Are we going to see an increase
in air temperature though, Yeah, So tonight is.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
The coldest night probably of the next ten days ahead.
You're down to freezing tonight, there's likely a frost tomorrow morning.
Maximum temperatures over the weekend are around about fourteen fifteen degrees,
so it's not freezing cold. Warms up to seventeen on Monday,
so that's quite pleasant with the northerly breeze, but next
week it does drop down again. Instead of the daytime
(02:07):
highs next week do get down to just sort of
ten ten eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen. That kind of rains
ten to fourteen, so it's not freezing cold. And then
overnight lows apart from tonight where it gets down to
zero maybe minus one and minus two here and there,
the overnight lows over the next week are between plus
two and plus seven, so it's not freezing cold and
(02:31):
it's not overly wet, but we do have showers in
the forecast, and most of the wind directions arise either
nordlies or westerlies. So it's a little bit better perhaps
than it's been, but we're still not quite out of
the woods yet. As far as like getting some really warm,
dry days apart from Monday or maybe Sunday too, there's
not really a lot of that coming through just yet.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Is this frost tonight or one off?
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Yep, it looks like it, like on our frost forecast
are at ruralweather dot co don in Head. We've got
tonight a likely frost, you know, light winds, clear skies,
and the air temperature dropping to zero generally speaking in Gore,
which means you know, surrounding areas minus one, minus two.
But yeah, bouncers back up again. In fact, Tomorrow night
the lowest six and then Monday night the lowest seven,
(03:18):
so it's not all bad, but there are a lot
of twos and threes on the way over the next
week as overnight temperatures, so you're getting down close to frost,
maybe a bit of ice on the vehicles and things,
but not necessarily much in the way of a frosty warning.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
All of a sudden ten degrees seems like utopia based
on what we've seen, and it shouldn't be like that
for the end of September.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yeah, it's been a colder August and September, mostly because
we've had a lot of high pressure north of New
Zealand that drives in windy westerlies, which we've certainly been having.
And because you're the southern part of the country, you
get more of that southerly twist at the end of
each cold front, which is Furoredland getting, Southland getting and
so is the West Coast, not so much up in
(04:00):
Canterbury and not so much in Nelson and Bilborough. So
it's the sort of the western and southern what I
would just describe as southwest New Zealand, which covers Southland,
Fiordland and the lower half of the West Coast. That's
the area that is having the most rain, the lowest
temperatures and these big bursts of wind. There isn't a
great deal of change coming up, except we do have
(04:22):
Karma days in the mix now, probably windy on Sunday.
That is our next sort of windy day, and there
might be some windy weather again next weekend, but it's
nothing too alarming. I think Sunday morning is the only
morning where there is a chance of power outages around
parts of Southland. Most of that risk is actually further
north of View, up around Otago and certainly into Canterbury.
(04:44):
On Sunday, they've got severe gales forecast. They've been forecast
all week, so it's pretty pretty predictable. You're on the
edge of that. So it might be quite windy Saturday
night or Sunday morning or Sunday during daytime and then
that's about it. So it's not a bad forecast really,
but it's not It's yeah, like I said, it's not
your sort of the ticket out of where you've been,
(05:05):
not quite yet. I'm my column and Farmers Weekly for
next week, and even there's a column this week talking
about how for a lot of New Zealand, this is
actually closer to what we would call average. And so
when you look at the temperatures, a lot of places
over the last fifteen days or first half of September
roughly have had temperatures that are about normal plus or
(05:28):
minus a little bit. Now in Southland, Otago, parts of Fjordland,
especially for Jordland, those areas have been up to two
degrees below normal, but the Southend region has been kind
of a bit of a mixture of both depends on
where you are, but it hasn't been as cold as
people might think. Now that sounds like when a politician
during election year is telling you the economy is not
(05:49):
as bad as you think when you're struggling to pay
your bills and you know, you, guys, if it feels cold,
it's probably cold. But compared to what we've recorded over
thirty years, this is a lot closer than normal and
that shows you just how much warmer it has been
in perhaps over the last decade. So this is a
lot more cats book this year, and that's why it's miserable.
(06:10):
Because it's September's traditionally a bit of a rubbish month.
It can be very settled, we can get some very
powerful highs that bring in beautiful days. This year, those
highs are north of New Zealand, and that's why we're
getting one day westerlies that are maybe slightly mild, and
then the next day it's raining and cold, and the
southwest swing comes in where that airflow is just coming
(06:30):
from off the Southern Ocean that is carrying on for
a few more weeks. Over in Tasmania, they've got the
same forecast. In fact, I'd argue living in Tasmania would
be worse at the moment than living in the South
Island from a weather point of view, because they've just
been slammed by snow events and gale force winds almost
every single day of the week.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
So what's September going to bring?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Very good question. We are seeing a bit of a
change in the weather past, yes, a slight one. We're
seeing some more days with normally winds and subtropical winds
now that is maybe not so much for Southland itself,
but as the whole country sort of generary. And we're
also seeing some more low pressure zones in the Tasman Sea,
and that's not a bad thing to you guys, because
(07:14):
sometimes that can make the rain fall up in places
like Nelson and you get the northerly wind and it's dry.
So we do see some changes coming up, but really
I don't see anything big yet to really change the
forecast pattern that we've got. One positive is that Australia
has got a ginormous high pressure zone coming in next
week that is shutting down or their winter stormy whether
(07:37):
I've been having for about two full months in a row.
So I'm hoping that we might get some effective that
as we get in towards the start of October. So
ask me again next week and I'll give you a
better answer than the one this week.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Damn sure, I'll ask you next week. Phildcin of weather Whatch.
Always appreciate your time enjoying the weekend you two made.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Have a good one.
Time to catch up with Phil Duncan and off weather Watch.
(00:28):
Get a fell house, Saints.
Speaker 2 (00:30):
I'm good made. How are you doing?
Speaker 1 (00:32):
Not too bad? It's been a hectic week, but it's Friday.
It doesn't mean much in the middle of September, though,
we've seen some average weather, to say the least. Jordy
yed from over Riverton, quoting two hundred and twenty miles
of rain for September so far. Are we going to
see some light at the end of the tunnel fill?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Gosh, that is a lot of rain, and yeah, certainly
some decent gown pours around over the last week. The
good news is, yeah, we do see some dryer where
they're coming in. It's not going to switch dry, but
the amount of rain that's coming through looks a lot lower.
And so you're seeing sort of daily rainfall totals of
you know, three millimeters and one millimeter and maybe the biggest,
(01:10):
the wettest day I can see is Saturday, the twenty
eighth of September, with six point one millimeters, So that's
that's better. And the temperatures they're up a little bit
in some of the daytime temperatures, but the overnight lows
are still down, and so it's it's to some degree
a fairly normal September, except obviously it's started off wet
(01:31):
and cold. We're sort of seeing a bit more normality
perhaps coming through over the next ten days for the
Southland region.
Speaker 1 (01:38):
We still temperatures are in the six to nine range
at the moment. Are we going to see an increase
in air temperature though, Yeah, So tonight is.
Speaker 2 (01:46):
The coldest night probably of the next ten days ahead.
You're down to freezing tonight, there's likely a frost tomorrow morning.
Maximum temperatures over the weekend are around about fourteen fifteen degrees,
so it's not freezing cold. Warms up to seventeen on Monday,
so that's quite pleasant with the northerly breeze, but next
week it does drop down again. Instead of the daytime
(02:07):
highs next week do get down to just sort of
ten ten eleven, twelve, thirteen, fourteen. That kind of rains
ten to fourteen, so it's not freezing cold. And then
overnight lows apart from tonight where it gets down to
zero maybe minus one and minus two here and there,
the overnight lows over the next week are between plus
two and plus seven, so it's not freezing cold and
(02:31):
it's not overly wet, but we do have showers in
the forecast, and most of the wind directions arise either
nordlies or westerlies. So it's a little bit better perhaps
than it's been, but we're still not quite out of
the woods yet. As far as like getting some really warm,
dry days apart from Monday or maybe Sunday too, there's
not really a lot of that coming through just yet.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Is this frost tonight or one off?
Speaker 2 (02:55):
Yep, it looks like it, like on our frost forecast
are at ruralweather dot co don in Head. We've got
tonight a likely frost, you know, light winds, clear skies,
and the air temperature dropping to zero generally speaking in Gore,
which means you know, surrounding areas minus one, minus two.
But yeah, bouncers back up again. In fact, Tomorrow night
the lowest six and then Monday night the lowest seven,
(03:18):
so it's not all bad, but there are a lot
of twos and threes on the way over the next
week as overnight temperatures, so you're getting down close to frost,
maybe a bit of ice on the vehicles and things,
but not necessarily much in the way of a frosty warning.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
All of a sudden ten degrees seems like utopia based
on what we've seen, and it shouldn't be like that
for the end of September.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
Yeah, it's been a colder August and September, mostly because
we've had a lot of high pressure north of New
Zealand that drives in windy westerlies, which we've certainly been having.
And because you're the southern part of the country, you
get more of that southerly twist at the end of
each cold front, which is Furoredland getting, Southland getting and
so is the West Coast, not so much up in
(04:00):
Canterbury and not so much in Nelson and Bilborough. So
it's the sort of the western and southern what I
would just describe as southwest New Zealand, which covers Southland,
Fiordland and the lower half of the West Coast. That's
the area that is having the most rain, the lowest
temperatures and these big bursts of wind. There isn't a
great deal of change coming up, except we do have
(04:22):
Karma days in the mix now, probably windy on Sunday.
That is our next sort of windy day, and there
might be some windy weather again next weekend, but it's
nothing too alarming. I think Sunday morning is the only
morning where there is a chance of power outages around
parts of Southland. Most of that risk is actually further
north of View, up around Otago and certainly into Canterbury.
(04:44):
On Sunday, they've got severe gales forecast. They've been forecast
all week, so it's pretty pretty predictable. You're on the
edge of that. So it might be quite windy Saturday
night or Sunday morning or Sunday during daytime and then
that's about it. So it's not a bad forecast really,
but it's not It's yeah, like I said, it's not
your sort of the ticket out of where you've been,
(05:05):
not quite yet. I'm my column and Farmers Weekly for
next week, and even there's a column this week talking
about how for a lot of New Zealand, this is
actually closer to what we would call average. And so
when you look at the temperatures, a lot of places
over the last fifteen days or first half of September
roughly have had temperatures that are about normal plus or
(05:28):
minus a little bit. Now in Southland, Otago, parts of Fjordland,
especially for Jordland, those areas have been up to two
degrees below normal, but the Southend region has been kind
of a bit of a mixture of both depends on
where you are, but it hasn't been as cold as
people might think. Now that sounds like when a politician
during election year is telling you the economy is not
(05:49):
as bad as you think when you're struggling to pay
your bills and you know, you, guys, if it feels cold,
it's probably cold. But compared to what we've recorded over
thirty years, this is a lot closer than normal and
that shows you just how much warmer it has been
in perhaps over the last decade. So this is a
lot more cats book this year, and that's why it's miserable.
(06:10):
Because it's September's traditionally a bit of a rubbish month.
It can be very settled, we can get some very
powerful highs that bring in beautiful days. This year, those
highs are north of New Zealand, and that's why we're
getting one day westerlies that are maybe slightly mild, and
then the next day it's raining and cold, and the
southwest swing comes in where that airflow is just coming
(06:30):
from off the Southern Ocean that is carrying on for
a few more weeks. Over in Tasmania, they've got the
same forecast. In fact, I'd argue living in Tasmania would
be worse at the moment than living in the South
Island from a weather point of view, because they've just
been slammed by snow events and gale force winds almost
every single day of the week.
Speaker 1 (06:49):
So what's September going to bring?
Speaker 2 (06:52):
Very good question. We are seeing a bit of a
change in the weather past, yes, a slight one. We're
seeing some more days with normally winds and subtropical winds
now that is maybe not so much for Southland itself,
but as the whole country sort of generary. And we're
also seeing some more low pressure zones in the Tasman Sea,
and that's not a bad thing to you guys, because
(07:14):
sometimes that can make the rain fall up in places
like Nelson and you get the northerly wind and it's dry.
So we do see some changes coming up, but really
I don't see anything big yet to really change the
forecast pattern that we've got. One positive is that Australia
has got a ginormous high pressure zone coming in next
week that is shutting down or their winter stormy whether
(07:37):
I've been having for about two full months in a row.
So I'm hoping that we might get some effective that
as we get in towards the start of October. So
ask me again next week and I'll give you a
better answer than the one this week.
Speaker 1 (07:49):
Damn sure, I'll ask you next week. Phildcin of weather Whatch.
Always appreciate your time enjoying the weekend you two made.
Speaker 2 (07:54):
Have a good one.
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