October 2, 2025 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Trying to catch up with Phil Duncan from were to
watch Good Afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Such an amazing greeting to have that song sung to
be Hello, good.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
To be back with you from food Fighters into the
Laddasmirasset doesn't get any better on a frya exactly exactly right,
talking about being a hero as that song initiated. What
are we seeing? We've got blue sky today, wasn't too
bad yesterday. Finally, are we getting a sense of warmth
in the southern air?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
We are a little bit, but like to be honest
with you, I think we've talked him in the past
few weeks. How this is a very much textbook spring
as far as the whole nation is concerned. We're getting,
you know, the mix of warm and cold. We're getting
a lot of windy westerlies and the rainfall in eastern
areas are starting to dry out, whereas western areas are
starting to really notice it falling. And so we're in
(01:15):
a classic spring. So if you go with that mindset
and we go into October as a classic spring, this
is usually the months that in Southland is the most
jekyl and hide as far as temperatures where one day
it is warm and the next day it's cold, and
that's kind of what we're seeing. And it really is
like almost like a traffic bight system. So let me
give you an example. Today's high, you know, warm eighteen
(01:38):
nineteen degrees, Tomorrow just eleven, Sunday just nine. But by
Monday you're back to seventeen or eighteen degrees, and then
by Tuesday next week you're back down to nine. And
then the Wednesday next week you're back to seventeen degrees,
and one week from now it could be twenty. So
it is really up and down, and the ups are
kind of going up further and the downs are going
(01:59):
down a little further. So we're not out of the
frost risk yet, but we're going to have more days
coming up that are going to feel warmer and more
like we're heading towards summer than the last few weeks
have been.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
It sounds like a case of somebody needs to go
to Deck here and get a pecka mix because that's
what we've got.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
That's an amazing reference. Well, yeah, I think this is
the first time in an interview I've had Decker reference.
It is. It's a mixed bag. It really is everything
thrown at us and overall rainfall in Southland or particularly
around Core. It's still leaning a little bit wet, but
it's not leaning a lot wetter than usual. In fact,
(02:37):
it may even be slightly below normal. So that's a
bit of a balancing act because I know you've had
a fair bit of wet wear of passing through over
the last few months.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Mate, weird snow yesterday morning or Wednesday morning.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I know that even showed up on our forecast about
a week ago. So yeah, decent cold change coming through.
In fact, I singled out northern Southland in my weather
videos because it was the all the Southland and parts
of Otago were by far the coldest. It was minus
Oh my memory's gone and rebuild the exact temperature, but
I believe it was minus six in middle March in Otago,
(03:12):
and at the same time it was plus seventeen degrees
up in Kaitaire.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
It was minus six yesterday or the other morning. Cam
Nicholson based up there in Either Valley, Texas through minus six.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
So that's a pretty big temperature gradient from one head
of New Zealand to the other, a twenty three degree
difference at the same time of the morning. So yeah,
that's a classic spring set up with us like.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
That, and we had the frost yesterday morning. Are we
going to see many more frosts over the next couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
I don't think we're going to be seeing lots of them,
but I think we are still going to be seeing
a few of them. The next chance of a frost
looks to be overnight Sunday going into Monday, overnight temperatures
down around zero minus one minus two. That is possible,
but all through next week it doesn't really look frosty.
So yeah, Monday, Monday morning is the frost risk. Does
(03:58):
look quite likely, but after that doesn't look as likely.
The overnight temperatures do vary, you know, next week, sort
of around five degrees to nine degrees, so it's not
that cold really, certainly not nine degrees. That's not too
bad at all, But yeah, fives are in the mix too.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
That favorite media term weather bomb. Is there anything like
that as we try and get through the end of
landing and garving. No.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
In fact, the easiest way to sum up the next
ten days is westerlies. Westerlies are the dominating force around
New Zealand. Now there'll be a bit of a mixture
this weekend because there's a low moving in, so the
wind's going to be all three hundred and sixty degrees
at some point. But once that low moves through, by
the time we get to Sunday and into Monday, we're
(04:43):
back into southwesters and westerlies. And those westerlies are blowing
through all of next week off and on some days
a bit blustery, other days not too bad. But that
is the general theme for the next ten to fifteen days. Actually,
a lot of westerly wind in there for you guys.
Probably next week Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday could be a bit
wendy and there may well be some wind warnings issued
(05:05):
around that time, whether or not it's you know that
bad for you around Gore. Maybe more of a western
Southland sort of set up.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Some commentators are talking about a landin your weather system
on the horizon. What do you make of that?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
So we are looking at the potential of Larnina forming
in the next couple of months. It's going to be
one of those things that we probably won't really notice it.
The latest thinking is that larnin you may come in
very briefly and then be gone again by summer. So
with that kind of measurement, you know, where do we
all notice that? Down here in New Zealand. I'm skeptical,
(05:40):
especially because our weather's been dominated by westerlies, and westerlies
are not Landinia. That's the opposite fact. We get easterlies
with Larninia. So if you are dominating westerly, that is
overriding everything in this part of the world. Good muck
to anything up in the tropics coming down and you know,
having a fight with the west flow. There's a reason
(06:01):
why it's called the Roaring forties. And you know, these
these tropical systems try to come down and we may
see that, we may see a couple of low pressure
zones drop down from the tropics. That's a sign of
la mina. So we'll be monitoring for that. But at
the moment, the westerly flow is certainly going to be
dominating the first half of this month.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Describe the term Roaring forties. Great name for a band,
by the way, I don't know if it ever took off.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
So it's so yeah, the latitude latitude that that you're in,
and so you know, we basically see between the forty
degree mark and fifty degrees on the map. That's that
the area that so it goes up to. Sorry, let
me just get this right because it's on my website
and I should be able to clearly say this I wrote.
I wrote this opinion piece under our education section at
(06:45):
where to watch dot co dot Nz that actually explains
the Roaring Forties. So the Roaring Forties comes up to
the covers the entire South Island and it comes up
to the Lower North Island, So Wanganui is exactly on
the line there. So south of that that is the
Roaring Forties. And so it's just a very windy belt
of weather because really the only land that it interacts
(07:06):
with is chas Mania and the South Island. As it
comes in from South America, it goes all the way
around the globe, missus South Africa, misses most of Australia,
and that's called the Roaring Forties because it doesn't have
land to slow it down, so it just comes in
and really really knocks us around.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Well you hear about these around the world yacht races
having to negat the Roaring Forties.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I suppose yeah, that's right, Yes, you know you've got
so south of New Zealand, you've got the roaring You've
got the roaring forties over us. And then you go
south of the Auckland Islands, so well south of you guys,
and you've got the furious fifties, and you go south
of that and you've got the screaming sixties. And the
screaming sixties is the belt of weather that circles and
(07:48):
hugs Antarctica itself on the outer edges of it over
the southern Ocean. So roaring forties, furious fifties, screaming sixties
sounds like our ages yourself, sir, I'm happily at the
roaring forty for a little bit longer.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Get on your Phil Duncan. We'll let you think about
Decker for a little bit longer, and go and get
yourself some of those hard jobs well played, sir, Enjoy
the week, Thank you, buddy, Phil Duncan. With quite possibly
the best sound effect a station's ever heard. This is
(08:26):
the Muster on Hakanui. Up next, Michelle Watt and the
Country Crossover
Trying to catch up with Phil Duncan from were to
watch Good Afternoon, Phil Duncan.
Speaker 2 (00:31):
Such an amazing greeting to have that song sung to
be Hello, good.
Speaker 1 (00:36):
To be back with you from food Fighters into the
Laddasmirasset doesn't get any better on a frya exactly exactly right,
talking about being a hero as that song initiated. What
are we seeing? We've got blue sky today, wasn't too
bad yesterday. Finally, are we getting a sense of warmth
in the southern air?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
We are a little bit, but like to be honest
with you, I think we've talked him in the past
few weeks. How this is a very much textbook spring
as far as the whole nation is concerned. We're getting,
you know, the mix of warm and cold. We're getting
a lot of windy westerlies and the rainfall in eastern
areas are starting to dry out, whereas western areas are
starting to really notice it falling. And so we're in
(01:15):
a classic spring. So if you go with that mindset
and we go into October as a classic spring, this
is usually the months that in Southland is the most
jekyl and hide as far as temperatures where one day
it is warm and the next day it's cold, and
that's kind of what we're seeing. And it really is
like almost like a traffic bight system. So let me
give you an example. Today's high, you know, warm eighteen
(01:38):
nineteen degrees, Tomorrow just eleven, Sunday just nine. But by
Monday you're back to seventeen or eighteen degrees, and then
by Tuesday next week you're back down to nine. And
then the Wednesday next week you're back to seventeen degrees,
and one week from now it could be twenty. So
it is really up and down, and the ups are
kind of going up further and the downs are going
(01:59):
down a little further. So we're not out of the
frost risk yet, but we're going to have more days
coming up that are going to feel warmer and more
like we're heading towards summer than the last few weeks
have been.
Speaker 1 (02:10):
It sounds like a case of somebody needs to go
to Deck here and get a pecka mix because that's
what we've got.
Speaker 2 (02:15):
That's an amazing reference. Well, yeah, I think this is
the first time in an interview I've had Decker reference.
It is. It's a mixed bag. It really is everything
thrown at us and overall rainfall in Southland or particularly
around Core. It's still leaning a little bit wet, but
it's not leaning a lot wetter than usual. In fact,
(02:37):
it may even be slightly below normal. So that's a
bit of a balancing act because I know you've had
a fair bit of wet wear of passing through over
the last few months.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
Mate, weird snow yesterday morning or Wednesday morning.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
I know that even showed up on our forecast about
a week ago. So yeah, decent cold change coming through.
In fact, I singled out northern Southland in my weather
videos because it was the all the Southland and parts
of Otago were by far the coldest. It was minus
Oh my memory's gone and rebuild the exact temperature, but
I believe it was minus six in middle March in Otago,
(03:12):
and at the same time it was plus seventeen degrees
up in Kaitaire.
Speaker 1 (03:16):
It was minus six yesterday or the other morning. Cam
Nicholson based up there in Either Valley, Texas through minus six.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
So that's a pretty big temperature gradient from one head
of New Zealand to the other, a twenty three degree
difference at the same time of the morning. So yeah,
that's a classic spring set up with us like.
Speaker 1 (03:32):
That, and we had the frost yesterday morning. Are we
going to see many more frosts over the next couple
of weeks.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
I don't think we're going to be seeing lots of them,
but I think we are still going to be seeing
a few of them. The next chance of a frost
looks to be overnight Sunday going into Monday, overnight temperatures
down around zero minus one minus two. That is possible,
but all through next week it doesn't really look frosty.
So yeah, Monday, Monday morning is the frost risk. Does
(03:58):
look quite likely, but after that doesn't look as likely.
The overnight temperatures do vary, you know, next week, sort
of around five degrees to nine degrees, so it's not
that cold really, certainly not nine degrees. That's not too
bad at all, But yeah, fives are in the mix too.
Speaker 1 (04:16):
That favorite media term weather bomb. Is there anything like
that as we try and get through the end of
landing and garving. No.
Speaker 2 (04:23):
In fact, the easiest way to sum up the next
ten days is westerlies. Westerlies are the dominating force around
New Zealand. Now there'll be a bit of a mixture
this weekend because there's a low moving in, so the
wind's going to be all three hundred and sixty degrees
at some point. But once that low moves through, by
the time we get to Sunday and into Monday, we're
(04:43):
back into southwesters and westerlies. And those westerlies are blowing
through all of next week off and on some days
a bit blustery, other days not too bad. But that
is the general theme for the next ten to fifteen days. Actually,
a lot of westerly wind in there for you guys.
Probably next week Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday could be a bit
wendy and there may well be some wind warnings issued
(05:05):
around that time, whether or not it's you know that
bad for you around Gore. Maybe more of a western
Southland sort of set up.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Some commentators are talking about a landin your weather system
on the horizon. What do you make of that?
Speaker 2 (05:19):
So we are looking at the potential of Larnina forming
in the next couple of months. It's going to be
one of those things that we probably won't really notice it.
The latest thinking is that larnin you may come in
very briefly and then be gone again by summer. So
with that kind of measurement, you know, where do we
all notice that? Down here in New Zealand. I'm skeptical,
(05:40):
especially because our weather's been dominated by westerlies, and westerlies
are not Landinia. That's the opposite fact. We get easterlies
with Larninia. So if you are dominating westerly, that is
overriding everything in this part of the world. Good muck
to anything up in the tropics coming down and you know,
having a fight with the west flow. There's a reason
(06:01):
why it's called the Roaring forties. And you know, these
these tropical systems try to come down and we may
see that, we may see a couple of low pressure
zones drop down from the tropics. That's a sign of
la mina. So we'll be monitoring for that. But at
the moment, the westerly flow is certainly going to be
dominating the first half of this month.
Speaker 1 (06:18):
Describe the term Roaring forties. Great name for a band,
by the way, I don't know if it ever took off.
Speaker 2 (06:23):
So it's so yeah, the latitude latitude that that you're in,
and so you know, we basically see between the forty
degree mark and fifty degrees on the map. That's that
the area that so it goes up to. Sorry, let
me just get this right because it's on my website
and I should be able to clearly say this I wrote.
I wrote this opinion piece under our education section at
(06:45):
where to watch dot co dot Nz that actually explains
the Roaring Forties. So the Roaring Forties comes up to
the covers the entire South Island and it comes up
to the Lower North Island, So Wanganui is exactly on
the line there. So south of that that is the
Roaring Forties. And so it's just a very windy belt
of weather because really the only land that it interacts
(07:06):
with is chas Mania and the South Island. As it
comes in from South America, it goes all the way
around the globe, missus South Africa, misses most of Australia,
and that's called the Roaring Forties because it doesn't have
land to slow it down, so it just comes in
and really really knocks us around.
Speaker 1 (07:22):
Well you hear about these around the world yacht races
having to negat the Roaring Forties.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
I suppose yeah, that's right, Yes, you know you've got
so south of New Zealand, you've got the roaring You've
got the roaring forties over us. And then you go
south of the Auckland Islands, so well south of you guys,
and you've got the furious fifties, and you go south
of that and you've got the screaming sixties. And the
screaming sixties is the belt of weather that circles and
(07:48):
hugs Antarctica itself on the outer edges of it over
the southern Ocean. So roaring forties, furious fifties, screaming sixties
sounds like our ages yourself, sir, I'm happily at the
roaring forty for a little bit longer.
Speaker 1 (08:05):
Get on your Phil Duncan. We'll let you think about
Decker for a little bit longer, and go and get
yourself some of those hard jobs well played, sir, Enjoy
the week, Thank you, buddy, Phil Duncan. With quite possibly
the best sound effect a station's ever heard. This is
(08:26):
the Muster on Hakanui. Up next, Michelle Watt and the
Country Crossover
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