November 20, 2025 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern seven day forecast.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Bonkers Island Jaggs eleven.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Before we wrap up on a Friday afternoon, we'll catch
up with full Duncan out of weather Watch. Good afternoon,
(00:31):
Phil Duncan, Welcome to Friya.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Good thanks for having me back again.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
No, we'll have you back everywhere. You do a pretty
good job to be fired. Now we're talking about the weather.
Obviously you're out of weather Watch. We're having quite a
bit of rain down here in the South today. A
lot of people are appreciate appreciating it, appreciating you. I
got that right, because yeah, yeah, oh good England works.
That's amazing what we got for the weekend. I suppose
sport happening tomorrow. What's to go?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, well, you certainly got a bit of a temperature
drop today. That old polar boundary that was sitting over
the top of you for about three months is actually
just coming up and flirting with the southern coastline of Southland.
So that's why your temperatures are more wintry today. You've
got a maximum of well we're predicting about thirteen. That's
not very warm overnight. A lot tonight at three I
(01:18):
wouldn't say that's very warm and even the next few
nights ahead five degrees on Saturday and Sunday, I mean
that's not too bad, but it's not exactly warm. And
Monday night you're down to two. So you know, we've
got some colder in airflow coming in as that polar boundary,
like I say, it's kind of flirting with the lower
South Island. But the two cold days are today and Monday.
(01:41):
Once you pass that, or Sunday is not overly warm
with fifteen. But yeah, I think Friday, Friday and Monday
probably the two colder nights. And in true spring style,
you know, by Wednesday of next week you could be
in the mid to late twenties. Like that is a
huge difference and temper you know, that's a well compared
to today. That the thing degree lifting your temperatures by
(02:04):
Wednesday of next week. So it's ups and downs. And
part of the reason you're going to have that up
next week is because there is a huge storm in
the southern Ocean. So we're talking about that polar boundary
right that's ahead of the storm. Once the storm comes in,
it pushes in a big burst of windy Northwesters, and
that's why temperatures go back up, So it's going to
(02:25):
be and those winds, by the way, may not be
strong in south, it might be stronger further northward, but
it's going to be. That's the reason why it's a
change to westerlies again. And so while we are talking
about landing your building, I keep saying to people the
southern ocean is that it's still the more dominant force
the way the system's there, which means I think the
spring ups and downs are going to carry on well
(02:46):
into December this year.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
You talk about where the patterns flourishing with each other,
we should be concerned about the offspring.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Then, yeah, yeah, well that's right. I mean, so that's
actually quite a good good saying, because when the polar
boundary is flirting with you, what I mean by that
is it's not moving from south to north straight up
over you. It's sliding along sideways, getting very very close
to you, like a river when it's just about to
go over the floodbanks, but doesn't quite actually really do it.
(03:14):
And that's sort of what you're getting. But about the offspring,
that is the storm that follows behind it. Now, when
I say storm, this is a huge system south of
New Zealand, so it's not a big storm coming in
the Southland. It is a major storm that goes from
Antarctica to the Southland region. It covers the whole area
(03:34):
in the Ocean Sea south of New Zealand, so that's
going to be really big. But because it's so large,
a lot of that energy will be down there with
it as well. But that's what we're watching next week,
and it's likely to drive in very heavy West coast rain.
It'll bring in only a little bit of rain probably
for you guys, but probably Thursday is the chance of
that rain coming in next week. At the moment, we're
(03:55):
forecasting ten millimeters, which is only a little bit more
than what you're getting today. It is a good amount
of rain. We don't want to see the rain stop,
even though some of your listeners might have to be
on where you are and what you do for a living.
But yeah, overall, you want to have a bit of
rain each week as long as it's just kept to
a day or two and you get these big, long, warm,
dry stretches. So I think it's still spring like for you.
(04:19):
And like I say, I think it's going to be
spring like going into December. This year, but you're getting
some good days in between. It's not bad every day
of the week. That's sure.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
That's an interesting weather pattern we're going through at the moment, Phil.
But look, the big question is can we peck the
fire up for the year.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Well, I mean, I don't know. I probably wouldn't because
you know, if you're talking about overnight loads. Of the
next ten overnight temperatures, only one of them is double digits.
That is Wednesday, where it's thirteen degrees. Every other day
is single digits. And when I say single digits, you
know you got there are there there's a nine degrees
(04:53):
of seven degrees or two and an eight, but you've
got tonight's three. The weekend, both Saturday Sunday night lows
of five. Monday night's low is just two degrees, and
then by Friday next week you're down to five degrees again.
So I mean, if that was me living there, I
would be still probably using it heat a heat pump
or the lighting the fire. But you know, maybe you're
(05:16):
at that time a year where you can stop lighting
the fire, but you still just use the heater for
a little bit, you know, just to just to take
the chill off the air.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
That's what I'm thinking, because if you were getting any
coldor under the monosays, then you would say, yes, keep
the fire going. But we're talking like mid single digits.
That's not an issue.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
No, that's right. And so my dad when when I
come up with my parents kid, we had open fireplace,
and I remember quite distinctly Dad would stop lighting that
fire around about October. There was no like that was it.
It was what happened after that point. But then I
do remember lighting the fire once around Christmas Day when
(05:54):
I think that was in the in the nineties early nineties.
We had a very wintry day that wasn't why Kado
like way up there Auckland and it was you know,
that was a cold ac and remember it being single
digits for most of Christmas Day and hail and windy,
squawly southwesterns. But yeah, most most of the time the fire,
at the least from what I know of North Islanders,
(06:16):
the fire stops around September October and you don't light
it again if you can until April, maybe the end
of March if you're unlucky.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
And interesting, we're the forecastings. It is getting warm, is
the key messaging Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Thanks to
your time when the muster is always my.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Pleasure, mate, Stay warm.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Laugh out loud with ag proud because life on the
land can be a laughing matter. Brought to us by
sheer well data working to help the livestock farmer, the.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Past, the present and the future. Walk into a bar.
It was tense, and here's another one. I got into
a fight one, three, five, seven and nine. The yards
were against me. Best of the Muster of five am
tomorrow and of course today's show going up on podcasts
very surely. I'm Andy Muey. You've been listening to the
(07:08):
Muster on Hakinui. Thanks for Peter Sendix. Enjoy the weekend,
See you Monday.
Bonkers Island Jaggs eleven.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
Before we wrap up on a Friday afternoon, we'll catch
up with full Duncan out of weather Watch. Good afternoon,
(00:31):
Phil Duncan, Welcome to Friya.
Speaker 1 (00:33):
Good thanks for having me back again.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
No, we'll have you back everywhere. You do a pretty
good job to be fired. Now we're talking about the weather.
Obviously you're out of weather Watch. We're having quite a
bit of rain down here in the South today. A
lot of people are appreciate appreciating it, appreciating you. I
got that right, because yeah, yeah, oh good England works.
That's amazing what we got for the weekend. I suppose
sport happening tomorrow. What's to go?
Speaker 1 (00:57):
Yeah, well, you certainly got a bit of a temperature
drop today. That old polar boundary that was sitting over
the top of you for about three months is actually
just coming up and flirting with the southern coastline of Southland.
So that's why your temperatures are more wintry today. You've
got a maximum of well we're predicting about thirteen. That's
not very warm overnight. A lot tonight at three I
(01:18):
wouldn't say that's very warm and even the next few
nights ahead five degrees on Saturday and Sunday, I mean
that's not too bad, but it's not exactly warm. And
Monday night you're down to two. So you know, we've
got some colder in airflow coming in as that polar boundary,
like I say, it's kind of flirting with the lower
South Island. But the two cold days are today and Monday.
(01:41):
Once you pass that, or Sunday is not overly warm
with fifteen. But yeah, I think Friday, Friday and Monday
probably the two colder nights. And in true spring style,
you know, by Wednesday of next week you could be
in the mid to late twenties. Like that is a
huge difference and temper you know, that's a well compared
to today. That the thing degree lifting your temperatures by
(02:04):
Wednesday of next week. So it's ups and downs. And
part of the reason you're going to have that up
next week is because there is a huge storm in
the southern Ocean. So we're talking about that polar boundary
right that's ahead of the storm. Once the storm comes in,
it pushes in a big burst of windy Northwesters, and
that's why temperatures go back up, So it's going to
(02:25):
be and those winds, by the way, may not be
strong in south, it might be stronger further northward, but
it's going to be. That's the reason why it's a
change to westerlies again. And so while we are talking
about landing your building, I keep saying to people the
southern ocean is that it's still the more dominant force
the way the system's there, which means I think the
spring ups and downs are going to carry on well
(02:46):
into December this year.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
You talk about where the patterns flourishing with each other,
we should be concerned about the offspring.
Speaker 1 (02:53):
Then, yeah, yeah, well that's right. I mean, so that's
actually quite a good good saying, because when the polar
boundary is flirting with you, what I mean by that
is it's not moving from south to north straight up
over you. It's sliding along sideways, getting very very close
to you, like a river when it's just about to
go over the floodbanks, but doesn't quite actually really do it.
(03:14):
And that's sort of what you're getting. But about the offspring,
that is the storm that follows behind it. Now, when
I say storm, this is a huge system south of
New Zealand, so it's not a big storm coming in
the Southland. It is a major storm that goes from
Antarctica to the Southland region. It covers the whole area
(03:34):
in the Ocean Sea south of New Zealand, so that's
going to be really big. But because it's so large,
a lot of that energy will be down there with
it as well. But that's what we're watching next week,
and it's likely to drive in very heavy West coast rain.
It'll bring in only a little bit of rain probably
for you guys, but probably Thursday is the chance of
that rain coming in next week. At the moment, we're
(03:55):
forecasting ten millimeters, which is only a little bit more
than what you're getting today. It is a good amount
of rain. We don't want to see the rain stop,
even though some of your listeners might have to be
on where you are and what you do for a living.
But yeah, overall, you want to have a bit of
rain each week as long as it's just kept to
a day or two and you get these big, long, warm,
dry stretches. So I think it's still spring like for you.
(04:19):
And like I say, I think it's going to be
spring like going into December. This year, but you're getting
some good days in between. It's not bad every day
of the week. That's sure.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
That's an interesting weather pattern we're going through at the moment, Phil.
But look, the big question is can we peck the
fire up for the year.
Speaker 1 (04:33):
Well, I mean, I don't know. I probably wouldn't because
you know, if you're talking about overnight loads. Of the
next ten overnight temperatures, only one of them is double digits.
That is Wednesday, where it's thirteen degrees. Every other day
is single digits. And when I say single digits, you
know you got there are there there's a nine degrees
(04:53):
of seven degrees or two and an eight, but you've
got tonight's three. The weekend, both Saturday Sunday night lows
of five. Monday night's low is just two degrees, and
then by Friday next week you're down to five degrees again.
So I mean, if that was me living there, I
would be still probably using it heat a heat pump
or the lighting the fire. But you know, maybe you're
(05:16):
at that time a year where you can stop lighting
the fire, but you still just use the heater for
a little bit, you know, just to just to take
the chill off the air.
Speaker 2 (05:23):
That's what I'm thinking, because if you were getting any
coldor under the monosays, then you would say, yes, keep
the fire going. But we're talking like mid single digits.
That's not an issue.
Speaker 1 (05:32):
No, that's right. And so my dad when when I
come up with my parents kid, we had open fireplace,
and I remember quite distinctly Dad would stop lighting that
fire around about October. There was no like that was it.
It was what happened after that point. But then I
do remember lighting the fire once around Christmas Day when
(05:54):
I think that was in the in the nineties early nineties.
We had a very wintry day that wasn't why Kado
like way up there Auckland and it was you know,
that was a cold ac and remember it being single
digits for most of Christmas Day and hail and windy,
squawly southwesterns. But yeah, most most of the time the fire,
at the least from what I know of North Islanders,
(06:16):
the fire stops around September October and you don't light
it again if you can until April, maybe the end
of March if you're unlucky.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
And interesting, we're the forecastings. It is getting warm, is
the key messaging Phil Duncan of weather Watch. Thanks to
your time when the muster is always my.
Speaker 1 (06:32):
Pleasure, mate, Stay warm.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
Laugh out loud with ag proud because life on the
land can be a laughing matter. Brought to us by
sheer well data working to help the livestock farmer, the.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Past, the present and the future. Walk into a bar.
It was tense, and here's another one. I got into
a fight one, three, five, seven and nine. The yards
were against me. Best of the Muster of five am
tomorrow and of course today's show going up on podcasts
very surely. I'm Andy Muey. You've been listening to the
(07:08):
Muster on Hakinui. Thanks for Peter Sendix. Enjoy the weekend,
See you Monday.
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