December 4, 2025 • 7 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern seven day forecast.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:09):
I'm starting to catch up with Phil Duncan from ware
to Watch, as we do every Friday, well pretty much
(00:35):
most Fridays anyway, because he's a very busy man. Full
Duncan of weather Watch. Good afternoon, Good day to you, sir.
How's everything been for you over the past couple of weeks?
Pretty hectic leading into Christmas?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yeah, hectic, And the weather has been pretty exciting up
here in the North with all these thick, severe thunderstorms
that passed through this week. So it was a bit
of fun. And we've built this new lightning tracker with
the met Service and Transpower. We're launching it. Well, we
were hoping to launch it this month, but it looks
like it might be in the new year. And it
was like the first time that I got to test
(01:07):
it and it was very exciting. So ah, this is awesome.
I can't wait to have this in the public domain
and people to be able to use it.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
So what are we going to see down here over
the next seven days. It sounds like there's some rain
on the horizon, particularly on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Yeah, well, speaking of thunderstorms, actually, there is some risk
of a thunderstorm this afternoon around parts of Northern Southland's
you know, it's like about a thirty forty risk, but
we've got a few showers that are tracking through this
afternoon and so you never know, one might be a
little heavy, pretty mild today. That's another good thing, you know,
like temperatures are up at the moment with that west
(01:42):
and northwesterly wind. Westerly stays tomorrow, temperature drops just a
little bit because it swings a bit more west southwest
today it's west northwest, so a slight difference and a
slight drop in temperature. But on Sunday that's when the
heat from Australia moves in. And you know, our temperature
at the moment is forecast to be twenty five degrees.
(02:03):
We're actually making some work at the moment. I'd love
to hear back any of your listeners that want to
let you know or let me know how you find
our temperatures and our forecast, because I think we underdo
it a little bit when we have a hot day.
And so we've got twenty five degrees as the high
on Sunday, but I think you know twenty seven twenty
eight is possible. A couple of showers around and then yeah,
some rain comes as in duck time by the luks
(02:24):
of it. Here could be some showers around during the
morning and during the day, but nighttime has the higher chance.
It's not a huge amount, but maybe thirteen fifteen millimeters
coming through on Sunday night Monday morning, and then a
bit of a temperature drop next week, not much back
to the twenties again, the lower twenties, and then you
get a cold change on Wednesday where the maximum is
(02:44):
fifteen degrees. But generally speaking, apart from that cooler change
coming at the end of next week, most of the
days are looking a little bit milder, but the nights
aren't overly warm, temperatures between seven and ten degrees for
the most part, with one thirteen degree night on Saturday
just coming tomorrow night.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
So the laid up the Christmas that started for December.
In general, though, are we going to say still a
late spring feel, Yes, you will.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
In Southland and Otago. The lower, very lower part of
the South Island is going to get sort of maybe
not necessarily the polar boundary coming over the top of you,
but certainly brushing Stuart Island, Sobo straight coastal Southland at times,
and that just lowers the temperatures. You just feel that.
It's sort of like, you know, it's like being next
(03:32):
to a heater, scanning a distance from it where you've
only just turned it on and you can feel the
heat coming from it, even though it hasn't warmed the
room up well, the polar boundaries like the opposite version
of that it's nearby, hasn't really dropped the temperatures for everybody,
but you can feel that cold presence nearby, and so
I think that you will notice some lower temperatures off
(03:53):
and on as we go through this month. La Nina
has formed officially, but it is weak. It is not
a very powerful Larninia. It's not expected to last very long,
like could be gone by within a month orth or so.
So it's it's really only affecting the top of the
North Island and so yeah, most of the country is
in sort of a neutral weather pattern where it's not
(04:15):
overly Larnina and it's not overly spring like. But if
you're at the top of the country, it's more like Larnina,
and if you're at the south of the country, it's
more like spring.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
So it's Laininia, but not as we know it exactly yep.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
And by the way, every Larnina is unique. They are
all unique. It is not like a switch and suddenly
it's all raining and it's humid every day. The media
say that for some reason when every time it happens.
But two of the last three Larnina events we had
brought big drought into the North Island, into regions that
everyone said would be raining. So yeah, it doesn't always
(04:49):
work the way we think it does because it's measured
in the Equator. And not only that, it's measured north
of Tahiti, not even north of Fiji, so it's quite
a long distance the way where we measure Larnina. So
obviously Southland you're closer to Antarctica than you are to
the Equator.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Likes of Menapoorie, for example. Speaking to Andy Dennis the
other day, he was saying, how wet it is. Are
they going to get a bit of a reprieve and
get some sunshine.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
I don't know if they're going to get a huge
amount of like I mean, they'll get sunshine in there,
but there's still a fair bit of rain, like most
of the rain coming up in New Zealand over the
next ten days is in the southwest corner of the
South Island, so for Jordland and Southwestland, and that does
spill over a little bit into the Lakes district and
into western parts of Southland, so that may still be there.
(05:34):
And if you look at the soil moisture maps, that's
exactly what I'm describing. You know, it's wet on the
western side, it's wet around Queenstown, and then as you
go southwards to the southern coastline of Southland it goes
back to normal. And if you're in the Gore side
of things, it's slightly drier than normal now only a
little bit, but it's just starting to show up in
the at least in the newer soil moisture map.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, certainly being a different season from what we're accustomed
so you say about three or four years ago for December,
but that's just what we're faced with.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Roight. Yeah. The amount of blue and the soil moisture
maps that has appeared in the last few weeks has
been quite quite interesting. You know, places like Auckland where
I am it is it is we're in a water
surplus like that's pretty rare. Going into the start of December.
But that's what we've got. Does happen some years with
(06:22):
the thunderstorms in particular and that instability, and I'm actually
picking that this is a summer. We're probably going to
see more thunderstorms and more downpours, especially around northern New Zealand,
but even on the west coast because of the westerly
flow that's kicking in. That'll effects Stuart Island and may
even affect coastal parts of Southland, the very very coastline
well south of you. But yeah, it's variety. That is
(06:45):
the word that I'm using to describe the weather, which
for most farmers is a good thing. If you're a camper,
it's not like when you're a camping you want it
to be funny every day, dry every day. But when
you're a farmer, yeah, you still want some rain in
the mix for the most part, and I think we're
to get that as we go through this month.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Phil Nuncle were the watch. We always appreciate your time
on the muster. We'll chat next week and enjoy the
weekend you.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Too, buddy. You have a great one.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Phil, don't going to wear a watch. You're listening to
the muster nixt We're a way to catch up with
Andrew cockran out of in his fits
I'm starting to catch up with Phil Duncan from ware
to Watch, as we do every Friday, well pretty much
(00:35):
most Fridays anyway, because he's a very busy man. Full
Duncan of weather Watch. Good afternoon, Good day to you, sir.
How's everything been for you over the past couple of weeks?
Pretty hectic leading into Christmas?
Speaker 2 (00:46):
Yeah, hectic, And the weather has been pretty exciting up
here in the North with all these thick, severe thunderstorms
that passed through this week. So it was a bit
of fun. And we've built this new lightning tracker with
the met Service and Transpower. We're launching it. Well, we
were hoping to launch it this month, but it looks
like it might be in the new year. And it
was like the first time that I got to test
(01:07):
it and it was very exciting. So ah, this is awesome.
I can't wait to have this in the public domain
and people to be able to use it.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
So what are we going to see down here over
the next seven days. It sounds like there's some rain
on the horizon, particularly on Sunday.
Speaker 2 (01:20):
Yeah, well, speaking of thunderstorms, actually, there is some risk
of a thunderstorm this afternoon around parts of Northern Southland's
you know, it's like about a thirty forty risk, but
we've got a few showers that are tracking through this
afternoon and so you never know, one might be a
little heavy, pretty mild today. That's another good thing, you know,
like temperatures are up at the moment with that west
(01:42):
and northwesterly wind. Westerly stays tomorrow, temperature drops just a
little bit because it swings a bit more west southwest
today it's west northwest, so a slight difference and a
slight drop in temperature. But on Sunday that's when the
heat from Australia moves in. And you know, our temperature
at the moment is forecast to be twenty five degrees.
(02:03):
We're actually making some work at the moment. I'd love
to hear back any of your listeners that want to
let you know or let me know how you find
our temperatures and our forecast, because I think we underdo
it a little bit when we have a hot day.
And so we've got twenty five degrees as the high
on Sunday, but I think you know twenty seven twenty
eight is possible. A couple of showers around and then yeah,
some rain comes as in duck time by the luks
(02:24):
of it. Here could be some showers around during the
morning and during the day, but nighttime has the higher chance.
It's not a huge amount, but maybe thirteen fifteen millimeters
coming through on Sunday night Monday morning, and then a
bit of a temperature drop next week, not much back
to the twenties again, the lower twenties, and then you
get a cold change on Wednesday where the maximum is
(02:44):
fifteen degrees. But generally speaking, apart from that cooler change
coming at the end of next week, most of the
days are looking a little bit milder, but the nights
aren't overly warm, temperatures between seven and ten degrees for
the most part, with one thirteen degree night on Saturday
just coming tomorrow night.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
So the laid up the Christmas that started for December.
In general, though, are we going to say still a
late spring feel, Yes, you will.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
In Southland and Otago. The lower, very lower part of
the South Island is going to get sort of maybe
not necessarily the polar boundary coming over the top of you,
but certainly brushing Stuart Island, Sobo straight coastal Southland at times,
and that just lowers the temperatures. You just feel that.
It's sort of like, you know, it's like being next
(03:32):
to a heater, scanning a distance from it where you've
only just turned it on and you can feel the
heat coming from it, even though it hasn't warmed the
room up well, the polar boundaries like the opposite version
of that it's nearby, hasn't really dropped the temperatures for everybody,
but you can feel that cold presence nearby, and so
I think that you will notice some lower temperatures off
(03:53):
and on as we go through this month. La Nina
has formed officially, but it is weak. It is not
a very powerful Larninia. It's not expected to last very long,
like could be gone by within a month orth or so.
So it's it's really only affecting the top of the
North Island and so yeah, most of the country is
in sort of a neutral weather pattern where it's not
(04:15):
overly Larnina and it's not overly spring like. But if
you're at the top of the country, it's more like Larnina,
and if you're at the south of the country, it's
more like spring.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
So it's Laininia, but not as we know it exactly yep.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
And by the way, every Larnina is unique. They are
all unique. It is not like a switch and suddenly
it's all raining and it's humid every day. The media
say that for some reason when every time it happens.
But two of the last three Larnina events we had
brought big drought into the North Island, into regions that
everyone said would be raining. So yeah, it doesn't always
(04:49):
work the way we think it does because it's measured
in the Equator. And not only that, it's measured north
of Tahiti, not even north of Fiji, so it's quite
a long distance the way where we measure Larnina. So
obviously Southland you're closer to Antarctica than you are to
the Equator.
Speaker 1 (05:05):
Likes of Menapoorie, for example. Speaking to Andy Dennis the
other day, he was saying, how wet it is. Are
they going to get a bit of a reprieve and
get some sunshine.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
I don't know if they're going to get a huge
amount of like I mean, they'll get sunshine in there,
but there's still a fair bit of rain, like most
of the rain coming up in New Zealand over the
next ten days is in the southwest corner of the
South Island, so for Jordland and Southwestland, and that does
spill over a little bit into the Lakes district and
into western parts of Southland, so that may still be there.
(05:34):
And if you look at the soil moisture maps, that's
exactly what I'm describing. You know, it's wet on the
western side, it's wet around Queenstown, and then as you
go southwards to the southern coastline of Southland it goes
back to normal. And if you're in the Gore side
of things, it's slightly drier than normal now only a
little bit, but it's just starting to show up in
the at least in the newer soil moisture map.
Speaker 1 (05:55):
Yeah, certainly being a different season from what we're accustomed
so you say about three or four years ago for December,
but that's just what we're faced with.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Roight. Yeah. The amount of blue and the soil moisture
maps that has appeared in the last few weeks has
been quite quite interesting. You know, places like Auckland where
I am it is it is we're in a water
surplus like that's pretty rare. Going into the start of December.
But that's what we've got. Does happen some years with
(06:22):
the thunderstorms in particular and that instability, and I'm actually
picking that this is a summer. We're probably going to
see more thunderstorms and more downpours, especially around northern New Zealand,
but even on the west coast because of the westerly
flow that's kicking in. That'll effects Stuart Island and may
even affect coastal parts of Southland, the very very coastline
well south of you. But yeah, it's variety. That is
(06:45):
the word that I'm using to describe the weather, which
for most farmers is a good thing. If you're a camper,
it's not like when you're a camping you want it
to be funny every day, dry every day. But when
you're a farmer, yeah, you still want some rain in
the mix for the most part, and I think we're
to get that as we go through this month.
Speaker 1 (07:01):
Phil Nuncle were the watch. We always appreciate your time
on the muster. We'll chat next week and enjoy the
weekend you.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
Too, buddy. You have a great one.
Speaker 1 (07:11):
Phil, don't going to wear a watch. You're listening to
the muster nixt We're a way to catch up with
Andrew cockran out of in his fits
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