December 11, 2025 • 8 mins
Phil Duncan of Weather Watch looks at the southern forecast for the next seven days.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:06):
Starting to catch up once again. On the muster was
Full Duncan from weather Watch. That is what you call
(00:32):
a double shot from the nineties. Full Duncan of weather Watch.
Good afternoon, good day to you. How's everything been this week?
Speaker 2 (00:40):
It has been a very busy week, and it's got
that feeling like, you know, the year is ending because
you go for a drive and you see like school
kids not at school and people mowing lawns that, you know,
during the what would normally be a work day, and
so I got that feeling like why am I still working?
You know, I kind of want to switch off. Plus
it's been really really hot up here, so finding on
(01:00):
a cool change today.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
So how busy is it for you in the lead
up to Christmas? From a meteorological viewpoint.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It's pretty busy because there are a lot of people
doing stuff like they you know, there's a lot of
Santa parades on, there's people getting gardens ready for Christmas,
and a lot of people obviously wanting to know Christmas
Day and the lead up to it, and so it's
busy from that point of view. And the difference is
it's not like there's a big injection of people that
are from the towns. Like townys are a lot more
interested than the city people in the weather than maybe
(01:30):
they are in the middle of winter when it's you know, okay,
it's just going to be cold and showery. They factor
that into two weeks, whereas farmers came to be a
lot more paying attention to every detail. So that changes
in December. You get a lot more of the city
people following every detail of what you're talking about.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
So in a nutshell down here in the South, what
have we got and the lead up to the end
or in the lead up to Christmas? I suppose, Well,
I'm going.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
To put it this way. It's my positive way of
framing it. Oh God, there's as you prob we know,
there are a couple of dates to start each season,
and the meteorological date is the start of December, so
first of December that's when we start summer. But the
more scientific one, the astronomical start to summer is literally
(02:13):
to do with the Earth's rotation around the Sun. That
doesn't occur to the longest day of the year, which
is coming up. I think it's December twenty second around them, right,
that is the moment summer technically starts, so if you
go by the astronomical date, we are still in spring
for another week or so, which explains the weather pattern
we've got at the moment. It's just my way of saying,
(02:34):
you've got spring weather and temperatures up and down coming
up over the next several days, right through until round
about those two days before we get to Christmas.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
So theoretically speaking, we're into a spring mode until the
middle of September, and we can almost say Christmas summer
should be going through onto March.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yes, that's right, I mean, and a lot of you know,
when I was a kid, that's how I always heard
the season's being described in the Northern Hemisphere. They'd always go, so,
you know, summer starts around June twentieth and or twenty
first in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter starts December twenty one.
And it never made sense to me because we started
on the first of the months and then realized, oh,
(03:13):
there's two dates. One from meteorological bookkeeping, that's the one
that starts at the you know, the calendar months, because
it's easy to do it that way, but really, technically,
from a planetary point of view, summer starts around about
the about December twenty second. Let me see what it
is this year. The summer solstice date this year is, yeah,
the twenty second of December at precisely four oh two
(03:35):
in the morning, So that's when summer officially starts. Well,
there is no official start, but that's the that's the
mother nature one, I guess.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So it's either the twenty first or the twenty second
of December being the summer solstice, but no definitive date
because it's a specific time.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
And so it's when the Earth is at a certain
point right of maximum sunlight into the southern hemisphere, and
that happened at an exact moment in the morning. And
then when you get to the autumn equinox in March,
it'll be another specific time. And because of that, and
because our calendar changes every year, right, we have leap
years and things, so that date is always moving around
(04:14):
a few days, right, and the time is always changing,
but it's always within a couple of days. So roughly,
you say about the twenty second or twenty first of
December and twenty first twenty second of March, and then
you go into obviously June, and then September.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
There is so much to entail when it comes to
the weather. It's not just looking at the sky and
pointing and saying it's sunny or it's raining.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah. And on top of that, our location on Earth
means that I think we've got very short summer and
winter seasons. We have I think two months of summer
and two months of winter. The rest of it is
all just a long spring and a long autumn. We
have a lot of windy, westerly days with showers.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
True, yeah, yeah, I understand that. Right. So down here
in the what some people call the southwest southwest corner
of the country, we call it the Dirty South here
in Southland, what have we got for the next seven days?
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Well, well, you guys in the northern part of the
Deep South, you have up and down temperature. So today's
a cooler day, definitely, Temperatures are down today with that
more southerly twist. Tomorrow it's not brutal, but tonight's temperatures
are down a bit, you know, sort of We're seeing fours,
fives and sixes tonight for some areas in northern Southlands,
(05:26):
so it's a little bit colder. Tomorrow warms up to
twenty two degrees even warmer on Sunday, subtropical or northwest
of flow coming in. Then twenty four or twenty five
degrees more northerlyes on Monday, but then the next cold
change arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, and then it looks like
it will get even colder next weekend. I'm seeing only
thirteen is the high six the low on Saturday night
(05:49):
next weekend, not this one. So it's still a bit unsettled.
But we are seeing some high pressure zones potentially coming
in around Christmas time. So yeah, we might not have
terrible weather, but I think you're gonna get some rainfall
coming through and Southend does sort of stand out or
weeen in that area that you've got probably thirty forty
milimeters coming up in the next week in some areas,
(06:09):
and if you get a thunderstorm that could go higher.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
So the lead up to Christmas that's going to continue
being unsettled.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yep, it is.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah, We've got injections of sort of northerly and northwesterly airflows,
so that'll lift the temperatures up, and then we're going
to see more west to southwest changes because the Southern Ocean.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It is still quite stormy. It's not maybe as messy
as it's been, but it's got a bit of a pattern.
But at the moment, in the next couple of weeks
in particular, and for the last week we've just had,
the Southern Ocean weather pattern is stormier and it's what
they call it, it's what they call SAM the Southern
annular mode. It's gone negative. And simply when that goes
(06:48):
into that negative phase, all it means is we've got
a lot of windy, westerly weather like it's spring or
autumn over the Southern Ocean. So that's a normal thing
to happen, and it's just happening at the moment in December.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
As far as this wind we're seeing, last week a
few more trees came down, nothing as vicious as ocked over,
but we're still seeing it every now and then. We're
going to continue as well with the wind. Unfortunately, Yeah,
we are.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
And in fact, I in my final article for the
Farmer's Weekly newspaper out next week, I actually wrote about
this saying how we're from a weather point of view.
Twenty twenty five produced very few weather complaints from farmers
and growers around the country. I mean the usual grizzles
when you know we've had too much of something, but
nothing serious other than how dry the east of the
(07:34):
country was becoming, especially Hawks Bay and some of those
big thunderstorms we also had, but in particular Southland, because
Southland had this very cold, windy spring and winter, but
spring in particular, and those windy conditions are now kind
of popping up as one of those complaints, like the
dry weather in Hawk's Bay, this repetitive noise I keep hearing,
(07:55):
and so I think that the wind has obviously been
a problem. It's not as bad as you say, as OCTOPI,
but we're still seeing it surging up and down, while
we're still see the southern ocean pretty active. That should ease,
I think as we go towards Christmas, but we may
still have it off and on up until then.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
You're gonna be interesting. Phil Duncan and a weather Watch
for the next seven days. We'll see how that files
will catch up with you one last time for twenty
twenty five this time next week. Thank you very much,
as always my pleasure.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Had a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch here on the muster every Friday.
Next we're away to Dunedin. It is a country crossover
with Michelle Watt
Starting to catch up once again. On the muster was
Full Duncan from weather Watch. That is what you call
(00:32):
a double shot from the nineties. Full Duncan of weather Watch.
Good afternoon, good day to you. How's everything been this week?
Speaker 2 (00:40):
It has been a very busy week, and it's got
that feeling like, you know, the year is ending because
you go for a drive and you see like school
kids not at school and people mowing lawns that, you know,
during the what would normally be a work day, and
so I got that feeling like why am I still working?
You know, I kind of want to switch off. Plus
it's been really really hot up here, so finding on
(01:00):
a cool change today.
Speaker 1 (01:02):
So how busy is it for you in the lead
up to Christmas? From a meteorological viewpoint.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
It's pretty busy because there are a lot of people
doing stuff like they you know, there's a lot of
Santa parades on, there's people getting gardens ready for Christmas,
and a lot of people obviously wanting to know Christmas
Day and the lead up to it, and so it's
busy from that point of view. And the difference is
it's not like there's a big injection of people that
are from the towns. Like townys are a lot more
interested than the city people in the weather than maybe
(01:30):
they are in the middle of winter when it's you know, okay,
it's just going to be cold and showery. They factor
that into two weeks, whereas farmers came to be a
lot more paying attention to every detail. So that changes
in December. You get a lot more of the city
people following every detail of what you're talking about.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
So in a nutshell down here in the South, what
have we got and the lead up to the end
or in the lead up to Christmas? I suppose, Well,
I'm going.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
To put it this way. It's my positive way of
framing it. Oh God, there's as you prob we know,
there are a couple of dates to start each season,
and the meteorological date is the start of December, so
first of December that's when we start summer. But the
more scientific one, the astronomical start to summer is literally
(02:13):
to do with the Earth's rotation around the Sun. That
doesn't occur to the longest day of the year, which
is coming up. I think it's December twenty second around them, right,
that is the moment summer technically starts, so if you
go by the astronomical date, we are still in spring
for another week or so, which explains the weather pattern
we've got at the moment. It's just my way of saying,
(02:34):
you've got spring weather and temperatures up and down coming
up over the next several days, right through until round
about those two days before we get to Christmas.
Speaker 1 (02:44):
So theoretically speaking, we're into a spring mode until the
middle of September, and we can almost say Christmas summer
should be going through onto March.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
Yes, that's right, I mean, and a lot of you know,
when I was a kid, that's how I always heard
the season's being described in the Northern Hemisphere. They'd always go, so,
you know, summer starts around June twentieth and or twenty
first in the Northern Hemisphere, and winter starts December twenty one.
And it never made sense to me because we started
on the first of the months and then realized, oh,
(03:13):
there's two dates. One from meteorological bookkeeping, that's the one
that starts at the you know, the calendar months, because
it's easy to do it that way, but really, technically,
from a planetary point of view, summer starts around about
the about December twenty second. Let me see what it
is this year. The summer solstice date this year is, yeah,
the twenty second of December at precisely four oh two
(03:35):
in the morning, So that's when summer officially starts. Well,
there is no official start, but that's the that's the
mother nature one, I guess.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
So it's either the twenty first or the twenty second
of December being the summer solstice, but no definitive date
because it's a specific time.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
And so it's when the Earth is at a certain
point right of maximum sunlight into the southern hemisphere, and
that happened at an exact moment in the morning. And
then when you get to the autumn equinox in March,
it'll be another specific time. And because of that, and
because our calendar changes every year, right, we have leap
years and things, so that date is always moving around
(04:14):
a few days, right, and the time is always changing,
but it's always within a couple of days. So roughly,
you say about the twenty second or twenty first of
December and twenty first twenty second of March, and then
you go into obviously June, and then September.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
There is so much to entail when it comes to
the weather. It's not just looking at the sky and
pointing and saying it's sunny or it's raining.
Speaker 2 (04:35):
Yeah. And on top of that, our location on Earth
means that I think we've got very short summer and
winter seasons. We have I think two months of summer
and two months of winter. The rest of it is
all just a long spring and a long autumn. We
have a lot of windy, westerly days with showers.
Speaker 1 (04:51):
True, yeah, yeah, I understand that. Right. So down here
in the what some people call the southwest southwest corner
of the country, we call it the Dirty South here
in Southland, what have we got for the next seven days?
Speaker 2 (05:03):
Well, well, you guys in the northern part of the
Deep South, you have up and down temperature. So today's
a cooler day, definitely, Temperatures are down today with that
more southerly twist. Tomorrow it's not brutal, but tonight's temperatures
are down a bit, you know, sort of We're seeing fours,
fives and sixes tonight for some areas in northern Southlands,
(05:26):
so it's a little bit colder. Tomorrow warms up to
twenty two degrees even warmer on Sunday, subtropical or northwest
of flow coming in. Then twenty four or twenty five
degrees more northerlyes on Monday, but then the next cold
change arrives Tuesday and Wednesday, and then it looks like
it will get even colder next weekend. I'm seeing only
thirteen is the high six the low on Saturday night
(05:49):
next weekend, not this one. So it's still a bit unsettled.
But we are seeing some high pressure zones potentially coming
in around Christmas time. So yeah, we might not have
terrible weather, but I think you're gonna get some rainfall
coming through and Southend does sort of stand out or
weeen in that area that you've got probably thirty forty
milimeters coming up in the next week in some areas,
(06:09):
and if you get a thunderstorm that could go higher.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
So the lead up to Christmas that's going to continue
being unsettled.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
Yep, it is.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
Yeah, We've got injections of sort of northerly and northwesterly airflows,
so that'll lift the temperatures up, and then we're going
to see more west to southwest changes because the Southern Ocean.
Speaker 2 (06:27):
It is still quite stormy. It's not maybe as messy
as it's been, but it's got a bit of a pattern.
But at the moment, in the next couple of weeks
in particular, and for the last week we've just had,
the Southern Ocean weather pattern is stormier and it's what
they call it, it's what they call SAM the Southern
annular mode. It's gone negative. And simply when that goes
(06:48):
into that negative phase, all it means is we've got
a lot of windy, westerly weather like it's spring or
autumn over the Southern Ocean. So that's a normal thing
to happen, and it's just happening at the moment in December.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
As far as this wind we're seeing, last week a
few more trees came down, nothing as vicious as ocked over,
but we're still seeing it every now and then. We're
going to continue as well with the wind. Unfortunately, Yeah,
we are.
Speaker 2 (07:12):
And in fact, I in my final article for the
Farmer's Weekly newspaper out next week, I actually wrote about
this saying how we're from a weather point of view.
Twenty twenty five produced very few weather complaints from farmers
and growers around the country. I mean the usual grizzles
when you know we've had too much of something, but
nothing serious other than how dry the east of the
(07:34):
country was becoming, especially Hawks Bay and some of those
big thunderstorms we also had, but in particular Southland, because
Southland had this very cold, windy spring and winter, but
spring in particular, and those windy conditions are now kind
of popping up as one of those complaints, like the
dry weather in Hawk's Bay, this repetitive noise I keep hearing,
(07:55):
and so I think that the wind has obviously been
a problem. It's not as bad as you say, as OCTOPI,
but we're still seeing it surging up and down, while
we're still see the southern ocean pretty active. That should ease,
I think as we go towards Christmas, but we may
still have it off and on up until then.
Speaker 1 (08:11):
You're gonna be interesting. Phil Duncan and a weather Watch
for the next seven days. We'll see how that files
will catch up with you one last time for twenty
twenty five this time next week. Thank you very much,
as always my pleasure.
Speaker 2 (08:23):
Had a great weekend.
Speaker 1 (08:25):
Phil Duncan of weather Watch here on the muster every Friday.
Next we're away to Dunedin. It is a country crossover
with Michelle Watt
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