August 26, 2025 • 8 mins
Sam Grant of Craigs Investment Partners says the recent OCR announcement could be a sign of things to come.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Muster Financial segment. Brought to you by Craig's Investment Partners, Gore.
This information is general in nature and is not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice provided disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Sam Grant from Craig's Investment Partners joins us once again, Good.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Afternoon, afternoon, were you today not too bad?
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Look, it's defit all day on Friday. Seeing bunches of
daffodils being carted around the office, around the main street
of Gore. It's just that time of year.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Absolutely, definitely are starting to feel like spring. The oven
cracked out some lamb milk this morning, which for lamb
we want to look too good. So reminded me of my.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Childhood web how many lambs a you're feeding?
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Just one at the moment, hopefully it stays it.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Won't be careful what you wished from that department? Mate? Hey,
Central Bank, so easing off the brakes at the moment.
There is quite a bit going on there.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, we're definitely sitting us all around the world world
where and obviously we're seeing here in New Zealand with
reserve banks sort of cutting their interest rates effectively as
inflation has come down, and the one of the sort
of the one of the few ones that has sort
of held off doing this as the US and what
we had on Friday is Jerome Powell, who's the fit cheer,
(01:21):
who's effectively the similar to Reserve Bank chair, sort of
indicating in a speech that they will probably start cutting
rates towards the second half or for the rest of
the year effectively. He did sort of make a few
mentions around potentil inflation risks around tariffs. I think what
(01:44):
this shows is that central banks are probably starting to
worry more about economy slowing down as opposed to high inflation. Yes,
but obviously by dropping interest rates that can kind of
help help economies you're going because they're can buy money
a lot cheaper as well as and sort of centify
those people to spend.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
As far as the UIs economy, the Donald Trump effect
as a stagnating along given what he's been doing regarding terrorists.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
So at the moment probably haven't seen the sort of
full effect of these terariffs yet. You know, there are
still a fewer negotiations and the like. Probably the ones
that's hurting is sort of those sort of small it's
probably hurt me households and small businesses a lot more,
which don't have the flexibility to sort of move manufacturing
or have a sort of kettle behind them to sort
(02:36):
of move around a lot more. But I think what
we definitely are seen in out of the US is
probably some definitely some inflationary pressures there is to have
sort of push up prices domestically over there. And what
you've probably also seen is other countries potentially looking for
other markets to move into to move their product across.
(02:58):
But given where we were sort of in April, where
it was quite doom and gloom, it's, yeah, it's sort
of sort of glossed over a wee bit more now.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Yeah, speaking of Greg Eggs Ericson who's based over in
Canada a few weeks ago, Sam and they just in
Canada are such they seem to be carrying on with
life as usual because a lot of the talk that
was coming out of the States hasn't actually eventuated as such.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Yeah, I think the other thing you find as well,
you know, particularly in my job, where we sort of
you know, we do focus on these big multinational companies
is you know, a lot of them already have manufacturing
in the US, and obviously if things have been manufactured domestically,
there's no taunus on those products. So I think what
we're tinue to find is a lot of companies through
(03:41):
you have it's a central amount of manufacturing overseas. And
then what you are seeing is some markets, the other
developed markets are sort of been flooded with more goods,
which is sort of pushing inflation down as well. It's
sort of another reason why the rates have been cut
is product that was specially go to the US is
now sort of go in to other market Because the Reserve.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Bank of New Zealand they cut the OCA by point
two five percent last week, more cats could be coming.
That's good.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Yeah, so we're down to three percent now. I think
we peaked about five and a half percent, so we've
maged sort of two and a half percent out of
their period. The place is still sort of their high
their high twos at the moment, so sort of pushing
that three percent. But yeah, the one thing the Reserve
being like is what had been stubborn and s like
domestic inflation, which is starting to come down. So initially
(04:33):
it was what we call on portion inflation, so when
we buy bids from overseas it had dropped quite substantially,
which to the have taken out overall inflation rate down.
But now starting to see that domestic completion come down,
which I think is observe think a bit more confidence
to continue cutting rates, which will be fantastic. Obviously great
for house high was there businesses alike effectively, but the
(04:56):
same again probably shows the reserve beings probably a little
bit concerned of growth slowing too much. So it's added
bit of stimulus thing.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
So let's take agriculture out of the picture for the
Kiwi economy said, what else is going on there that
is positive at the moment, because all you hear in
the media is doom and gloom.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Yeah, absolutely, and yeah that's probably the key thing that
you get from the media at the moment. Is very
regional based at the moment, I think the other one
that's sort of agriculture sort of streaks ahead, but tourism
is not too bad at the moment particularly and probably
you know the key areas sort of Queen's down Lafe area.
(05:38):
But then most other and just manufacturing is not too bad.
But yeah, the one thing that's sort of really hurting
us sort of the retail. The retail sector is the
one that's really struggling at the moment. Now.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
UK markets are on a roll. The foot sea, which
is a great way to describe how they work over there,
is that the Nasdak, these names have just become synonymous
with economics as such, they're on a bit of a roll.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Yeah. Yeah, so the first time in a long time,
so the UK market has been a bit of a
leg uard since physically since bricks are really sort of
underperformed all other markets. But yeah, for twenty twenty five
it's the highest performing sheer markets. That's up fourteen percent
in pounds. But if we sort of were in New
Zealand and Visa and New Zealand dollar terms with the
(06:21):
currency movements and stuff, about simien and a half percent
this year, it's been a big driver. There is obviously
sort of slow growth there for quite a wee while
post bricks that that's sort of starting to work its
way through a degree of undervaluation of some of their companies.
But probably the key things there is, you know, they
(06:43):
had quite high inflation and it's really come back, and
so of interest rates and increase in defense spending, just
with what's sort of happening in geopolitically in Europe. A
lot of sort of European countries are increasing defense spinning,
which sort of helps the economy grow effectively because there's
more money being pumped into industries. And then so the
(07:06):
last one there's sort of been a reasonably sized developed
market as a sort of again a bit of that
AI boom as well, which has sort of really driven
those big TICH stocks over in the US this year.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
As far as the bricks that affected Sam, what are
we seeing there as such? Does it work to the
UK's benefit?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
It kind of depends who you've thought to. I guess
obviously some people would say it has worked in the benefit.
I think general consensus it's probably worked against the UK,
which is, you know, why the UK market has been
such a legard. The last sort of almost been coming
up almost ten years now. I think twenty sixteen was
when bricks that happened, and it's sort of taken effectibly
(07:49):
nine years for the UK market to get rolling. So
I think most general consensus it's probably the slow growth
in the UK there for about a nine year.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Period and the resting times. Indeed, saying the team of
Craig's Investment Partners, how do people get in touch?
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yes, so goes care on two nine zero, one five
three or composit us at one hundred and twenty Main
Street and Gore.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Sam Grant and Craig's Investment Partners always appreciate your time
on the Master.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Awesome appreciated, Andy.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Sam Grant from Craig's Investment Partners. This is the muster up.
Next we're away to our Ua between Bluffing and the
Cargo where we catch up with Steve Henderson.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
I want to kiss to see you there.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
I won't kill that
The Muster Financial segment. Brought to you by Craig's Investment Partners, Gore.
This information is general in nature and is not financial advice.
Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice provided disclosure statement can
be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Sam Grant from Craig's Investment Partners joins us once again, Good.
Speaker 3 (00:21):
Afternoon, afternoon, were you today not too bad?
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Look, it's defit all day on Friday. Seeing bunches of
daffodils being carted around the office, around the main street
of Gore. It's just that time of year.
Speaker 3 (00:33):
Absolutely, definitely are starting to feel like spring. The oven
cracked out some lamb milk this morning, which for lamb
we want to look too good. So reminded me of my.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Childhood web how many lambs a you're feeding?
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Just one at the moment, hopefully it stays it.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Won't be careful what you wished from that department? Mate? Hey,
Central Bank, so easing off the brakes at the moment.
There is quite a bit going on there.
Speaker 3 (00:57):
Yeah, we're definitely sitting us all around the world world
where and obviously we're seeing here in New Zealand with
reserve banks sort of cutting their interest rates effectively as
inflation has come down, and the one of the sort
of the one of the few ones that has sort
of held off doing this as the US and what
we had on Friday is Jerome Powell, who's the fit cheer,
(01:21):
who's effectively the similar to Reserve Bank chair, sort of
indicating in a speech that they will probably start cutting
rates towards the second half or for the rest of
the year effectively. He did sort of make a few
mentions around potentil inflation risks around tariffs. I think what
(01:44):
this shows is that central banks are probably starting to
worry more about economy slowing down as opposed to high inflation. Yes,
but obviously by dropping interest rates that can kind of
help help economies you're going because they're can buy money
a lot cheaper as well as and sort of centify
those people to spend.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
As far as the UIs economy, the Donald Trump effect
as a stagnating along given what he's been doing regarding terrorists.
Speaker 3 (02:13):
So at the moment probably haven't seen the sort of
full effect of these terariffs yet. You know, there are
still a fewer negotiations and the like. Probably the ones
that's hurting is sort of those sort of small it's
probably hurt me households and small businesses a lot more,
which don't have the flexibility to sort of move manufacturing
or have a sort of kettle behind them to sort
(02:36):
of move around a lot more. But I think what
we definitely are seen in out of the US is
probably some definitely some inflationary pressures there is to have
sort of push up prices domestically over there. And what
you've probably also seen is other countries potentially looking for
other markets to move into to move their product across.
(02:58):
But given where we were sort of in April, where
it was quite doom and gloom, it's, yeah, it's sort
of sort of glossed over a wee bit more now.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Yeah, speaking of Greg Eggs Ericson who's based over in
Canada a few weeks ago, Sam and they just in
Canada are such they seem to be carrying on with
life as usual because a lot of the talk that
was coming out of the States hasn't actually eventuated as such.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Yeah, I think the other thing you find as well,
you know, particularly in my job, where we sort of
you know, we do focus on these big multinational companies
is you know, a lot of them already have manufacturing
in the US, and obviously if things have been manufactured domestically,
there's no taunus on those products. So I think what
we're tinue to find is a lot of companies through
(03:41):
you have it's a central amount of manufacturing overseas. And
then what you are seeing is some markets, the other
developed markets are sort of been flooded with more goods,
which is sort of pushing inflation down as well. It's
sort of another reason why the rates have been cut
is product that was specially go to the US is
now sort of go in to other market Because the Reserve.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Bank of New Zealand they cut the OCA by point
two five percent last week, more cats could be coming.
That's good.
Speaker 3 (04:09):
Yeah, so we're down to three percent now. I think
we peaked about five and a half percent, so we've
maged sort of two and a half percent out of
their period. The place is still sort of their high
their high twos at the moment, so sort of pushing
that three percent. But yeah, the one thing the Reserve
being like is what had been stubborn and s like
domestic inflation, which is starting to come down. So initially
(04:33):
it was what we call on portion inflation, so when
we buy bids from overseas it had dropped quite substantially,
which to the have taken out overall inflation rate down.
But now starting to see that domestic completion come down,
which I think is observe think a bit more confidence
to continue cutting rates, which will be fantastic. Obviously great
for house high was there businesses alike effectively, but the
(04:56):
same again probably shows the reserve beings probably a little
bit concerned of growth slowing too much. So it's added
bit of stimulus thing.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
So let's take agriculture out of the picture for the
Kiwi economy said, what else is going on there that
is positive at the moment, because all you hear in
the media is doom and gloom.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Yeah, absolutely, and yeah that's probably the key thing that
you get from the media at the moment. Is very
regional based at the moment, I think the other one
that's sort of agriculture sort of streaks ahead, but tourism
is not too bad at the moment particularly and probably
you know the key areas sort of Queen's down Lafe area.
(05:38):
But then most other and just manufacturing is not too bad.
But yeah, the one thing that's sort of really hurting
us sort of the retail. The retail sector is the
one that's really struggling at the moment. Now.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
UK markets are on a roll. The foot sea, which
is a great way to describe how they work over there,
is that the Nasdak, these names have just become synonymous
with economics as such, they're on a bit of a roll.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
Yeah. Yeah, so the first time in a long time,
so the UK market has been a bit of a
leg uard since physically since bricks are really sort of
underperformed all other markets. But yeah, for twenty twenty five
it's the highest performing sheer markets. That's up fourteen percent
in pounds. But if we sort of were in New
Zealand and Visa and New Zealand dollar terms with the
(06:21):
currency movements and stuff, about simien and a half percent
this year, it's been a big driver. There is obviously
sort of slow growth there for quite a wee while
post bricks that that's sort of starting to work its
way through a degree of undervaluation of some of their companies.
But probably the key things there is, you know, they
(06:43):
had quite high inflation and it's really come back, and
so of interest rates and increase in defense spending, just
with what's sort of happening in geopolitically in Europe. A
lot of sort of European countries are increasing defense spinning,
which sort of helps the economy grow effectively because there's
more money being pumped into industries. And then so the
(07:06):
last one there's sort of been a reasonably sized developed
market as a sort of again a bit of that
AI boom as well, which has sort of really driven
those big TICH stocks over in the US this year.
Speaker 2 (07:19):
As far as the bricks that affected Sam, what are
we seeing there as such? Does it work to the
UK's benefit?
Speaker 3 (07:26):
It kind of depends who you've thought to. I guess
obviously some people would say it has worked in the benefit.
I think general consensus it's probably worked against the UK,
which is, you know, why the UK market has been
such a legard. The last sort of almost been coming
up almost ten years now. I think twenty sixteen was
when bricks that happened, and it's sort of taken effectibly
(07:49):
nine years for the UK market to get rolling. So
I think most general consensus it's probably the slow growth
in the UK there for about a nine year.
Speaker 2 (07:59):
Period and the resting times. Indeed, saying the team of
Craig's Investment Partners, how do people get in touch?
Speaker 3 (08:05):
Yes, so goes care on two nine zero, one five
three or composit us at one hundred and twenty Main
Street and Gore.
Speaker 2 (08:12):
Sam Grant and Craig's Investment Partners always appreciate your time
on the Master.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Awesome appreciated, Andy.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
Sam Grant from Craig's Investment Partners. This is the muster up.
Next we're away to our Ua between Bluffing and the
Cargo where we catch up with Steve Henderson.
Speaker 1 (08:29):
I want to kiss to see you there.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
I won't kill that
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