October 7, 2025 • 6 mins
Sam Grant of Craigs Invesment Partners looks ahead to the OCR announcement which is due to be announced.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The Muster Financial Segment brought to you by Craig's Investment
Partners Gore. This information is general in nature and is
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice provided
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Sam Grant and Craig's Investment Partners joins us once again
on this beautiful afternoon down here in the Deep South.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
La is Sam, good things, Andy, appreciate you having me on.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
We'll start with this the Global Dairy Trade Auction result overnight,
another drop in the GDD price index of one point
six percent. Those key figures there, just quickly running through
the figures and hydrous milk fat up one point two,
butter down three, butter, milk powder up two point three,
chetter back up sorry point eight, No lactose mazzirella down
(00:46):
eleven point eight, skim milk powder back zero point five,
and whole milk powder the key one. They're back two
point three percent. So that's four drops in a row
for the GDT.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, No, absolutely, and I think that make it about
eight in the last ten options I think have now
dropped since things peaked in May so over over all
the total duty auction is down about what's that about
twelve point four percent since it's highs and May, so yeah,
(01:16):
quite a big pullback from what we're technically record highed.
But I think sort of consensus out there nours, we
probably can't absorb too many more decreases in the GDT
before you have to start moving that milk price.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Well, a ten dollars milk price at the moment midpoint range.
It's the thing of beauty. But like you say, it's
all about now as far as what happens regarding the
milk price as to.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Where we're going to be right, absolutely, absolutely, yeah, And
you know there's been sort of two big drops over
that sort of period since May and July and September. Yes,
hopefully getting out the rest of the year that movement,
that volatility and that price is at two major would
be quite nice as we sort of head into the season.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
So I got time to be a dairy farmer.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
They cheapers, Yeah, absolutely, you know, obviously strong season kept
return coming back to farmers as well. Yeah. You know,
it's sort of really driving the gill on the comedye
at the moment, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Coming in in the next hour or so sam as
a Reserve bank's ocer decision. The big question is they're
going to go zero point two five or zero point five,
remembering we need to stimulate the gross after the last
quarter result.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Yeah, absolutely, So for those that want to take their
mind back obtually, I peaked at five and a half
percent and we're now sitting at three. So for expectation
that we're going to see at zero point two five
percent cut, but the real question is, you know, are
we going to see them move it to half a
percent which would take us to two and a half
(02:47):
percent effectively. The end of last week sort of the
market chance was sort of thinking about thirty percent chance
of a half a percent move. But I think one
of the key things for me was, you know, three
have the major banks, we spect ASB and Qybank were
calling for the bigger half a percent cut. I think
there's quite a bit of noise out there around you know,
(03:09):
the market really needs that sort of half a percent
to sort of cut things along, and we're now sort
of seeing the ocr potentially bottoming and out at two
point twenty five percent at the moment. So if we
get this half a percent cut with I need that
call of a percent from the bottom, so which would
obviously put quite a relief food for mortgages and households.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Again, well that was going to be my next question.
What would this mean for mum and dad as far
as households and regarding mortgages.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
Yeah, so half percent So OCI doesn't drive through your
longer term rates as much it as that shorter term stuff.
So if you are floating, you'd definitely see the cut
flow through almost immediately on those longer term rates. It's
a few more sort of economic factors, but you would
see a degree movement now anyway, but you sort of
(04:03):
start to see things sort of hit down to the
low fours you'd expect.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Does it look as though the ocr in general those
going in the right direction?
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Yeah, yeah. You know, the main reason we cut the
OCRs to get the economy going. Make it more attractive
for people to spend, make it more attractive for businesses
to spend and to invest in. You know, when people
spending and invest money sort of spurs on economic growth,
which is what we need as a nation. Obviously, down
this way it's things a lot more positive. But you know,
(04:33):
if you do talk to anybody in the major centers,
particularly Wellington and Auckland. You know it's quite stark how
dire things are there comparatively to the regions at the moment.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The n z X is on a wedding streak as well.
We talk about the Orbeck's doing well at eden Park.
Well it's very similar with n z X surge in
three point one percent last week, which is a street
the strongest weekly gain and over a year, so more
positives yet again.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Yeah, yeah, So the New Zealand market is very interest
rates sensitive, so any talk around interest rates being cut,
we do see good movements in the New Zealand's stock exchange.
So prior to twenty twenty, the New Zealand market was
one of the strongest round the world. Been a bit
of a lag yard it's the last five years, but yes,
about about thirteen and a half percent since the end
(05:21):
of April, which was sort of a bit of a
low in the market before that sort of tear off talk,
and then for the year was sort of setting up
us with three three point two percent, so finally starting
to get a little bit of traction in the New
Zealand share market, which is nice to see because yeah,
where all the growth has been over the last sort
(05:41):
of a few years has all been overseas, So nice to
see the local market starting to trend in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Yeah, all this tariff talk, we're not really got to
see a flow on effeet until later on in the year,
Is that correct?
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Yeah, Yeah, so there's still a fear bit of stuff
to flow through through the US effectively. Yeah. You know,
sometimes you don't have a full picture where you land
until it's for a couple of months down the line
as well. So I think the one thing you tend
to know with this current administration of the US is
sometimes a bit more noise in the redaction sometimes.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
So are we seeing a rebound of the New Zealand
dollar given it's dropped quite a bit over the against
the major currencies.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Recently away but not but not much or well below
sort of long term averages effectively at the moment, so
you still have a much weaker dollar than what we
traditionally would Sam.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
If somebody's to get in touch with the team, what's
the team at Craig's Investment Partners, the best way Yeah,
either gives to.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Go on two O nine to zero, one five foot
or whether U said one.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Hundred and twenty main good only you say IM always
appreciate your time
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Awesome things Andy,
The Muster Financial Segment brought to you by Craig's Investment
Partners Gore. This information is general in nature and is
not financial advice. Craig's Investment Partners Limited Financial Advice provided
disclosure statement can be found at craigsip dot com slash tcs.
Speaker 2 (00:17):
Sam Grant and Craig's Investment Partners joins us once again
on this beautiful afternoon down here in the Deep South.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
La is Sam, good things, Andy, appreciate you having me on.
Speaker 2 (00:25):
We'll start with this the Global Dairy Trade Auction result overnight,
another drop in the GDD price index of one point
six percent. Those key figures there, just quickly running through
the figures and hydrous milk fat up one point two,
butter down three, butter, milk powder up two point three,
chetter back up sorry point eight, No lactose mazzirella down
(00:46):
eleven point eight, skim milk powder back zero point five,
and whole milk powder the key one. They're back two
point three percent. So that's four drops in a row
for the GDT.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, No, absolutely, and I think that make it about
eight in the last ten options I think have now
dropped since things peaked in May so over over all
the total duty auction is down about what's that about
twelve point four percent since it's highs and May, so yeah,
(01:16):
quite a big pullback from what we're technically record highed.
But I think sort of consensus out there nours, we
probably can't absorb too many more decreases in the GDT
before you have to start moving that milk price.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
Well, a ten dollars milk price at the moment midpoint range.
It's the thing of beauty. But like you say, it's
all about now as far as what happens regarding the
milk price as to.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
Where we're going to be right, absolutely, absolutely, yeah, And
you know there's been sort of two big drops over
that sort of period since May and July and September. Yes,
hopefully getting out the rest of the year that movement,
that volatility and that price is at two major would
be quite nice as we sort of head into the season.
Speaker 2 (01:58):
So I got time to be a dairy farmer.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
They cheapers, Yeah, absolutely, you know, obviously strong season kept
return coming back to farmers as well. Yeah. You know,
it's sort of really driving the gill on the comedye
at the moment, isn't it.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
Coming in in the next hour or so sam as
a Reserve bank's ocer decision. The big question is they're
going to go zero point two five or zero point five,
remembering we need to stimulate the gross after the last
quarter result.
Speaker 3 (02:26):
Yeah, absolutely, So for those that want to take their
mind back obtually, I peaked at five and a half
percent and we're now sitting at three. So for expectation
that we're going to see at zero point two five
percent cut, but the real question is, you know, are
we going to see them move it to half a
percent which would take us to two and a half
(02:47):
percent effectively. The end of last week sort of the
market chance was sort of thinking about thirty percent chance
of a half a percent move. But I think one
of the key things for me was, you know, three
have the major banks, we spect ASB and Qybank were
calling for the bigger half a percent cut. I think
there's quite a bit of noise out there around you know,
(03:09):
the market really needs that sort of half a percent
to sort of cut things along, and we're now sort
of seeing the ocr potentially bottoming and out at two
point twenty five percent at the moment. So if we
get this half a percent cut with I need that
call of a percent from the bottom, so which would
obviously put quite a relief food for mortgages and households.
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Again, well that was going to be my next question.
What would this mean for mum and dad as far
as households and regarding mortgages.
Speaker 3 (03:39):
Yeah, so half percent So OCI doesn't drive through your
longer term rates as much it as that shorter term stuff.
So if you are floating, you'd definitely see the cut
flow through almost immediately on those longer term rates. It's
a few more sort of economic factors, but you would
see a degree movement now anyway, but you sort of
(04:03):
start to see things sort of hit down to the
low fours you'd expect.
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Does it look as though the ocr in general those
going in the right direction?
Speaker 4 (04:11):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (04:12):
Yeah, yeah. You know, the main reason we cut the
OCRs to get the economy going. Make it more attractive
for people to spend, make it more attractive for businesses
to spend and to invest in. You know, when people
spending and invest money sort of spurs on economic growth,
which is what we need as a nation. Obviously, down
this way it's things a lot more positive. But you know,
(04:33):
if you do talk to anybody in the major centers,
particularly Wellington and Auckland. You know it's quite stark how
dire things are there comparatively to the regions at the moment.
Speaker 2 (04:45):
The n z X is on a wedding streak as well.
We talk about the Orbeck's doing well at eden Park.
Well it's very similar with n z X surge in
three point one percent last week, which is a street
the strongest weekly gain and over a year, so more
positives yet again.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
Yeah, yeah, So the New Zealand market is very interest
rates sensitive, so any talk around interest rates being cut,
we do see good movements in the New Zealand's stock exchange.
So prior to twenty twenty, the New Zealand market was
one of the strongest round the world. Been a bit
of a lag yard it's the last five years, but yes,
about about thirteen and a half percent since the end
(05:21):
of April, which was sort of a bit of a
low in the market before that sort of tear off talk,
and then for the year was sort of setting up
us with three three point two percent, so finally starting
to get a little bit of traction in the New
Zealand share market, which is nice to see because yeah,
where all the growth has been over the last sort
(05:41):
of a few years has all been overseas, So nice to
see the local market starting to trend in the right direction.
Speaker 2 (05:48):
Yeah, all this tariff talk, we're not really got to
see a flow on effeet until later on in the year,
Is that correct?
Speaker 3 (05:54):
Yeah, Yeah, so there's still a fear bit of stuff
to flow through through the US effectively. Yeah. You know,
sometimes you don't have a full picture where you land
until it's for a couple of months down the line
as well. So I think the one thing you tend
to know with this current administration of the US is
sometimes a bit more noise in the redaction sometimes.
Speaker 2 (06:15):
So are we seeing a rebound of the New Zealand
dollar given it's dropped quite a bit over the against
the major currencies.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
Recently away but not but not much or well below
sort of long term averages effectively at the moment, so
you still have a much weaker dollar than what we
traditionally would Sam.
Speaker 2 (06:33):
If somebody's to get in touch with the team, what's
the team at Craig's Investment Partners, the best way Yeah,
either gives to.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Go on two O nine to zero, one five foot
or whether U said one.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
Hundred and twenty main good only you say IM always
appreciate your time
Speaker 3 (06:46):
Awesome things Andy,
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