July 24, 2025 • 41 mins
Mort has Clippers beat writer Justin Russo on the show to discuss the team's huge summer, in which they acquired John Collins, Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:03):
Hi, and welcome to the NBA Podcast. My name is
Morten Jensen. Back from vacation. Finally, thank you so much
to Dan fa Valley and Grant Us for picking up
the slack over the past couple of episodes. Really appreciate
those guys just stepping in when necessary and make sure
you follow their show over at Hartwood Knocks. Today we'll
(00:24):
be discussing the Los Angeles Clippers, and like last year,
I'm gonna have Clippers Beeed writer Justin Russo on the
podch just discuss everything that's gone on in Los Angeles,
which is a lot.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Justin How are you, sir?
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Hey?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
You been man doing well?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So like seriously man like this this has been a wild,
wild offseason for these guys. I mean, look, they were
bounced in the playoffs. Everyone was sort of like, is
this the last gasp of this team? Do they have
to like blow it up? James's contract situation was kind
of like out there. There were even murmurings and mumblings
(01:03):
that he might not return. Not only did he return,
the team also went out and traded for John Collins.
They signed Bradley Beal, now they've signed Chris Paul. I
mean Kawhi Hopefully, and again this is always the big one.
Hopefully he's healthy. The way he looked in the playoffs
was very at least very encouraging. Subas just had the
best season of his career by a freaking mile. You
(01:26):
still have Derk Jones junior back, you have boke Don Bogdanovic,
and oh, by the way, you also signed Brook Lopez
of all people, like, this team legitimately now goes eleven deep,
and dept for a while has been an issue for
this squad. So what do you make of this team
as they head into twenty five to twenty six.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
They're a rather interesting group, Like it's very weird to sity,
Like I know every team likes to say it, like, oh,
we have better talent than we did a year ago.
They genuinely have better talent on their opening day roster,
at least as we stand today a year ago when
they went into opening night, there's by far better talent
on the roster. You know, you mentioned Brook Lopez. They
(02:08):
have a backup center. You mentioned you know, Bradley Beal
starting shooting guard who I guess we can get into
in a little while, who nominally replacing Norman Powell, there's
you know, James Harden's back. James Harden got a little
bit of a pay bump, but also took a little
bit of a pay cut, as he has over the
last couple of years of his career. Kawhi, you mentioned
(02:29):
he's healthy after Game seven when they lost in Game
seven in Denver. I remember asking him, despite everything that
happened the result of the series, he had talked all
season about how he wants to get to the off
season healthy. So I asked him, I said, does it
feel like a mission accomplished free that you actually got
to the off season healthy? And he said, yeah, he
goes Obviously they would have liked to win the series,
but he's healthy going into the new season. Lawrence Frank
(02:52):
the other day, when we talked to him on a
a meeting call, basically said that Kawhi is feeling great.
He's attacking the off season. He's going to be in
Africa pretty soon for for something. So, you know, Kauai
healthy is the biggest factor and everything Clippers related in
terms of how they can do throughout a season. So
(03:12):
the fact he's healthy is good. Zoo. The incredible season
that he had that you touched on. This really is
a very very deep team. But it's not just a
deep team of like guys. It's a deep team of
good basketball players. Yes, they are old, they're very much
up there in age, but I don't think age is
(03:34):
enough to you know, dock them for what they've done
this offseason.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Yeah, no, I agree, And that's been you know, the
running joke amongst the media fans, like, you know what,
what's the what's the bochet on oxygen tanks for this
team this season? Look, by the way, there are a
lot of those twos are fun. By the way, I
like that those are those are those are good?
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, it's fine. Look, we're all old, they're great.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Well, we were.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Talking about this before we started recording. You and I
we're definitely old, so like we can relate. But I mean,
it's not like everyone is in their middle of their
thirties or late thirties. Like John Collins, who was acquired
is I think twenty seven, twenty eight. Sue obviously still
in also in that age bracket, right, twenty eight, I think, So,
like there's a lot of those guys there who can
(04:19):
still get to that well how to phrase this, like
who can still tap into their prime years, is kind
of how I want to phrase it.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The same with Dirt Jones Junior.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
So those guys can at least carry a certain level
of responsibility during the course of the regular season, like
maybe we won't see James or Kawhi, you know, average
big numbers. Perhaps we won't even see Bradley bial average
big numbers. There is a world where in Collins and
Sue take up a lot of that responsibility, and then
when it's time for the playoffs to roll around, that's
(04:51):
when you get your stars aligned. You You sort of
just make sure they're healthy going through the eighty two
game schedule, and then you maybe ramp up over the court.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
So the last month month and a half before the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
It's interesting because I also view this from a Kauikes perspective,
where last year when he came back, obviously he was
on a minutes restriction early on during his time and
in his return, but then when they got to about
the middle of February to early March it was I
think it was early March, they had realized that, okay,
we need to see what he has in his tank
(05:25):
for the playoffs, so they ramped him up to about
thirty like the final month and a half of the season,
Kawi was averaging just over thirty six thirty seven minutes
per game. He was routinely getting up there in minutes
and arguably on most nights one of their top two
minutes getters alongside James Harden. So like they had to
see what Kaui had in terms of minutes for the
(05:47):
playoffs to get ready for it. But also as it
pertains of this season, I don't think you're gonna see that.
I think you're gonna see Kawi thirty two to thirty
four minutes maybe on most nights and at least on average,
and then they'll try same thing with James. Probably. Lawrence
Frank today when he talked about the Chris Paul signing
in our conversation media conversation with him, he mentioned that
(06:10):
they want to protect James Harden. James Harden at his
age played the fifth most minutes in the NBA last season.
That's a lot of minutes for a guy with his
with his track record and his workload over his career,
So they want to protect James. They want to protect
He also mentioned protecting a few to zubots where you know,
Zoo played a lot of minutes last season as well.
I think he was top twenty in minutes if I
(06:31):
remember correctly. So they want to protect their most important players,
so I wouldn't be so shocked if you see on
a lot of nights guys are between the twenty four
to thirty minute range and not really going over that.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, and look, that is probably the way to go,
especially now that they have the depth, right, Like for
so many years they were forced to play their primary
guys a lot of minutes because they just didn't have
a whole bunch of firepower coming off that bench. Now
can run, like I said, eleven men deep again pending health,
of course, But like just having a guy like booked
(07:06):
On Bogdanovic to me is such a luxury. A guy
who can initiate, you know, actions off the pick and roll,
a guy who can spot up, a guy who can
just get you know, get up points whenever it's needed.
Like it just lowers this necessity of a large scoring
burden on some of those guys, which I think over
the course of an eighty two game schedule is just huge.
(07:27):
And like then there are some guys where whatever they
kind of give you is just cream. Like I don't
expect Nicholas Patoum, for example, to go out and averaged
like ten points per game. He's an older guy, he's
a bit of a big player right now. But he
gives you five or six points per game on quality shooting,
which he gave you last year as well, plus some defense,
plus some quality rebounding. You know what, that just means
(07:49):
less work for everyone else.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Yeah, Nico averaged four points and three rebounds last year,
which doesn't sound great, but he did it in seventeen
and a half minutes, which for a guy of his
like hierarchy ranking in the Clippers offense is pretty good
because Nico really only ever shot the ball when he
was left completely wide open or if they basically had
(08:14):
guys get funneled away from him. Not because like, oh,
we don't trust Nico shooting, but just because Dash just
his job, He knows his a role. He's he's one
of those guys that I call a point fiver. He
makes a decision within a half a second. He keeps
it moving. If he doesn't have it, he gives it
up and he keeps it moving. There's no lag time,
there's no time that allows defenses to recover. He keeps
(08:36):
everything moving at a nice rate. So you know, Nico's
one of the best role players I think that the
Clippers could ever have on their roster, especially this group.
But then you throwing other guys. You know that we've
ended up talking about Chris Dunn not a real ball sticker,
Like the ball's not gonna stick in his hands all
that much. Derek Jones Jr. Same thing. These are guys
who will get off of it real quick, and I
(08:58):
think that benefits the Clippers, especially with their conglomerate of
talent that they have at their disposal of the season.
I'm I do think there is some uh I guess
not tendency. There are some potential for this to not
really work out because there are a lot of guys there,
Like there's gonna be a lot of egos, as there
(09:18):
should be, right, these are all guys whove accomplished a
lot in their NBA careers. You don't get this far
into your NBA career without having an ego, Otherwise you
know you'd have been out of the league as long
before this. But it can go south. I don't want
to sit here and act like it can't go south.
But I do think the potential for a boon is
a lot larger than the potential for a bust, if
(09:38):
we're being completely honest at this point.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
So obviously Clippers fans were saddened too seeing Norm go
because he was just such a fan favorite and such
a staple and he blew out, you know, blew up
rather last season. What was that average? Like twenty two
per game somewhere along those lines, Like he was just
so efficient and so effective. How is the fan base
reacted overall to basically the trading of him for John Collins.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
I think they came to an understanding that and so
to the front office actually that they needed a power forward,
not BECAUSEWHI so my thought, my personal opinion, Kawhi's best
offensive position is the foe. That's my personal opinion. I
think I think it gives the Clippers offense a greater
luxury of spacing and matchup advantages and all this stuff.
(10:31):
The Clippers felt that they needed a power forward to
basically augment what Kawhi brings offensively while supplying a little
bit more rebounding out of a four spot, a little
bit more athleticism, some rim pressure creation, and everything else
(10:53):
that John Collins can end up bringing. John Collins a
good shooter. He's built himself into a really good three
point shooter for his size, so they felt they needed that,
And I don't think it's a wrong call. Having that
type of player is not a bad thing. I want
to say that, you know, It's just I felt Kawai's
best offensive position was the four, But defensively, Kawhi is
not a four, and that's the biggest takeaway that we've
(11:14):
seen from this move. But that's also why I think
the fan base in the front office has been pretty
much on board with this. Norm for John Collins swap
is we understand that at the time they were gonna
have a hole at shooting guard, but it filled a
vacancy at power forward defensively that they actually needed, and
(11:34):
it gave them a little bit more offensive utility to
where you can have a bigger player on the floor
as a floor space or and a rim threat, which
gives you more offensive dynamism, uh dynamism to where you
can create different types of looks than you had this
season before. You know, with Norman there where Norm was
primarily an on ball driver, off ball shooter, things like that.
(11:55):
Norm wasn't really he wasn't a shock creator for others,
which is an I don't want to say that as
a slide against him. It just it was the reality
of the situation. So but Norm brought a lot of
good things on offense. John Collins gives them a lot
of that in a lot bigger mold, and I think
that mattered to them, especially on the defensive end. You
bump Kwi up a position and last week's then found out, well,
(12:18):
you have a whole shooting guard and you ended up
getting a fifty million dollars shooting guard for a five
dollars for five million dollar discount. So when you're going
bargain hunting for big for you know, uh, great valued
Blu Ray DVDs, you're not gonna you're not gonna argue
with the one that you pick up. Now, Bradley Beal,
(12:38):
I know you didn't ask him about him. Yeah, but
Bradley Beal, for as much as people want to gripe
about him, at fifty million dollars not really worth it.
Five five six million dollars a year, incredible bargain for
the Clippers, and that's their starting shooting guard. So when
you the norm for John Collins deal. The way that
I've always looked at it is it wasn't norm for
(12:59):
John Collins. It was norm for John Collins and then
Bradley Beale, and I think in that instance the Clippers
made out pretty well.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Oh yeah, and then even Chris Paul joins the crowd
even later on. I mean to me, I was in
Spain when this all went down, and even without the
Bradley Beal acquisition, I still would have done it. I
remember writing about it and I was like, no, you
know what they needed someone bigger, who can really get
(13:27):
things done in the in between area. John Collins is
in my eyes, supremely underrated and has been underrated for
a while. Things started going south in Atlanta for whatever reason,
like his I don't want to say he regressed as
a player, but something just didn't mesh on the floor.
He had really good years and then the production level
started dropping because he became sort of an afterthought. You
(13:49):
would think he would have rehapped his value in Jutah
over the past two years, where he got more shots,
more opportunities. He maintained a high level of efficiency, and
you no, the just didn't really make out that well
in that trade, So that showed you where his value was,
and I think that's only a benefit to the Clippers,
especially when they're definitely a win out team like this
(14:12):
isn't a team that's built for two or three years
down the row.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
They're built right now.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
So let's get into the Bradley Beal stuff, because I'm
glad you brought it up. So there's been a lot
of talk about him either starting or coming off the bench.
He's starting next to James.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
He's starting.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Yeah, they if you've listened to the stuff they've put out,
they kind of I'm not gonna say they made concessions,
but they made it very apparent that Bradley Beial is
a starting shooting guard for them.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Yeah, which means that the private let's let's put it
that is James brad Kawhi. I assume John Collins in
the starting lineup. Wheres or are they going to derk
Jones Junior there to have more offensive firepower off the bench.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I've basically been working under the operating this assumption that
John Collins is starting. I've heard nothing different. By the way,
it doesn't doesn't mean he won't. It doesn't mean he
will or won't start, just I just haven't. I've been
operating that he is starting, right. I haven't heard anything
different that they've plus my working theory. If you really
want my working theory, he's making twenty six million dollars.
I just don't assume a guy making twenty six million
(15:15):
dollars when he's the third highest paid player on your team,
is coming off the bench.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
So if we assume that that's going to be the
starting lineup with Sue wrapping it out at center, that
has to be one of the most potent starting units, again,
pending health, And we have to underline that consistently because
that is just the nature of the game, and with
Kawhi and his injury pattern it it'd be faulty of
us to not mention it. But assuming health, pending health, like,
(15:43):
where does that starting lineup rank?
Speaker 2 (15:44):
It has to be right up there.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
I mean, I look at this squad, not just the
starting lineup, but the rotation at large, and to me,
this is a clear cut contender.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
It has to. It probably ranks pretty high. At least offensively,
I think it's very defensively we'll see, but their defense,
like it was last year. Now, granted, Chris Dunn and
Derek Jones Junior started either one or both of them
for most of the year, so that also helps your defense.
But a big reason their defense was so good was
also a visa Zubats and he's still a starter, Kawhi
(16:18):
Leonard still a really good defender. I'm interested to see
what that is. They're also going to let and they've
mentioned this to on calls, is Bradley Beal is going
to get the a one defensive option. That's literally they're
gonna let Bradley Beal take on the top perimeter threat
for the opposing teams, at least to start the season.
(16:39):
You can say what you want about Bradley Bial's defense.
A lot of words have been written. I've written quite
a few than myself. It wasn't good in his time
in Phoenix. They are banking on a smaller offensive workload
for Bradley Beal, meaning or at least transitioning and translating
into a better defensive see from him, if you want
(17:01):
to call it that. So maybe there is some of that.
Maybe I mean, we'll just end up seeing. But they
believe in it. They buy into it, They buy into
Bradley Beal as a defender, especially on the perimeter. I'm
curious to see a play out, but that lineup should
be very good offensively. And I kind of think I
(17:21):
wrote about this a little bit, like on social media
and stuff, even when I wrote my Bradley Bial piece,
it was I do think that we as a basketball
society and community have tended to overvalue defense over offense.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
And I don't mean that like defense doesn't matter, and
I don't mean to get like philosophical, but I think
we have looked at defensive first players and overvalued them
when year after year we see them get played off
the floor in a postseason because opposing defenses don't respect
them as far as floor spacers and shooters and offensive engines.
(18:01):
And I kind of think we've now, at least the Clippers,
I maybe have thought this that they've kind of worked
themselves back into all right, Look, we were the top
three defense last year, but we had a middle of
the road offense. Now granted, when Kawhi Letard came back
in January of this past year this season, they had
like a top five offense in the league or top
(18:22):
ten offense in the league. So they were really good.
But I think they saw, and we have seen over
the years, middling defensive teams and great offensive teams, but
middling defensive teams play up defensively in the postseason, so
where they have better defenses in a postseason where everything
(18:42):
can scale upward because your best players play more minutes,
everyone plays with more intensity, the games matter, YadA, YadA, YadA.
I think that's kind of what the Clippers are buying
it to is like, look, look, we were top three
in defense last year. We were middle of the road offensively.
What if we were just top five an offense and
fifteenth in defense or maybe even tenth defensively? Is that
(19:05):
a better contrast for them in terms of success? And
I guess we're gonna end up finding out because that's
probably gonna end up. What happens is they might end
up with a top five or seven offense and they
might end up with a maybe fringe top ten defense.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I've been saying something similar to what you just proposed
there in terms of how defense has been a little
bit overrated for the past five years on this show.
Like I drove Brian to Porik nuts when talking about it,
because it's it to me, when you have those guys
who just can't facilitate anything offensively, like for example, and
(19:42):
Matisse Stipel is always one of my primary examples of this.
I love Matis Stipel's defense, love it, Like if he
could sustainably stay on the floor forty thirty five minutes
per game, he's probably a defensive player of the year.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
But the thing is.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
When he has to be, you know, spoon fed offense
insistently because he can't create his own in any way,
stretch or form, and that three ball can just, let's
be real, occasionally just air bowl the crab out of things.
You can't trust it. You can't trust it in the
playoff setting. You can't even trust it in a high
end role in the regular season. So I agree with
(20:17):
you on that. I think that is a very very
astute note, especially for this team, and also to your
point about maybe them finishing fifteen thor even tent. They
have a shit ton of defense coming off the bench,
like Chris Dunn, Derek Jones, Junior Broke Lopez, a former
DPO Y candidate right there at the rim like this,
(20:40):
even Chris Paul, I know he's slower, I know he's older,
that guy still knows how to navigate defensively, like he
knows how to call his stuff out. I'm not out
on this Clippers defense at all.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
It's very interesting because I had this exact same conversation
with someone yesterday, which is that because they're point to
me was it does feel like they've sacrificed some of
their defensive identity from last season with the guys that
they brought in. But I made the point that if
you look at their the players that played at least
a thousand minutes on the Clippers last season, which I
believe there was eight. I want to say there was
(21:14):
eight of them, maybe was seven. But of the players
that played one thousand minutes, only two of them are
not coming back. And the two players who are not
coming back are Norman Powell and Mirror Coffee. Now, those
two players were really good offensively for the Clippers. I
don't want that to get misconstrued, but they were not
defensive players for the most part last season. So none
of the guys who lived through that defensive mentality quote
(21:38):
unquote are gone. Like you mentioned, Chris Dunn is still there,
Derek Jones Junior is still there, Brook Lopez is coming in.
I'm oddly fascinated to see what a brook Lopez bench
lineup defense can look like, because when I did my
brook Lopez deep dive and I wrote about him, it
took him ten years in the NBA to even get
(21:59):
on a good defensive team. But none of that was
his fault, because his teams were far better with him
on the floor defensively. When I ended up going through
all the data and stuff, He's a wholly unique player,
and I do find it rather interesting that for years
the Clippers tried to figure out a way to have
diverging defensive thoughts between their starting center and their backup center,
(22:23):
Viza Zubots primarily a drop big. Brook Lopez also, obviously,
as we all know, primarily a drop coverage big. In
the past, though, the Clippers tried to have Zoo drop
coverage and then another center who could play more up
to the level of the screen. I famously remember Mason
Plumley when he first came to the Clippers. I actually
asked him as an introductory pressor at the practice facility,
(22:46):
what type of defensive style do you do you prefer
because the Clippers like drop coverage. He said to me,
He's an at the level big so you like to
come up to the at the level of the screen
and play off of that. These are the types of
the bigs the Clippers have usually gone after for bench
for bench, but brook Lopez flies in the face of that.
He's the antithesis of that. So I'm genuinely interested to
(23:06):
see a second year of jeff ban Gundhi led defense
and scheme defense. With one style, it's primarily going to
be a drop coverage across the board unless they play
small at times, and you're gonna get the switching and
everything else right. But I'm genuinely interested to see a
play out because this is the first time the Clippers
in a long long time have adhere to one style
(23:29):
across the center spectrum.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
There's also the element of positional fluidity on this team
that struck me as I was doing some of my
research before we started recording here.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Like outside of Chris Paul and Sue or less well
brook Lopez two, we just talked about everyone else is
capable of playing multiple positions, which means you can get
so many different fun looks. Like Derek Jones junior at center, Yeah,
why not him at the three.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Sure, why not?
Speaker 1 (23:59):
He's quick enough. He can guard three's John Collins both
the four and the five. We know that James can
play both guard spots. Kawhi can play both four spots.
He can even slide down to the two occasionally. Like
you don't want him there full time, but if you
want to go super big and you're going to want
to go super long for five minutes, yeah, he can
hold his own. Even book Don can play like on
(24:19):
the ball to a point where he kind of plays
the one to two and even the three, but soon
despite being older than dirt at this point, it's also
like you said, like, well you called him a point five.
That was in terms of getting the ball out of
his hands in point five seconds. But like, yeah, he
can play three positions Chris Dune two, Bradley Beal two
to three. I just love how there are so many
(24:41):
options here in terms of how you can build a rotation.
Like if you want to tinker with something, you can
just kind of ask a guy, hey, you know, mind
taking the two, mind taking this. There's a lot of
fun stuff here for the Clippers coming in because.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
In my article about Brook Lopez, I specifically reference how
in the last two seasons in Milwaukee, he played alongside
Giannis and Bobby Portis combined twenty two minutes over two years.
This is across ninety five or yeah, I believe across
ninety five games that they all could have been playing together.
(25:20):
Like you never really saw the three big guys play together,
which I understand. Bobby Portis technically was their backup center,
and then Brook Lopez their startings. But like, twenty two
minutes in two years, probably would have liked to at
least see a little bit of it more, just to
see what you had. But I ended up writing in
my direct quotas experimentation isn't supposed to be feared. It's
(25:40):
meant to be embraced and tinkered with. And I think
you can expect ty Lou to try things like this
just to see if it can work, because the Clippers
are gonna have to see what the euphemism is, You
just throw enough crap at the wall, you see what sticks.
And that's what they might have to end up doing,
is you just see what you can end up getting
out of stuff. So Brook Lopez, it's crazy that he
(26:04):
could play next to Viata Zubats for five minutes in
a game. Maybe maybe not. I don't know. You can
get weird. It's basketball, why not.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Get weird sometimes?
Speaker 3 (26:15):
But their lineup versatility is something they've talked to Lawrence
Frank has talked to several times. He mentioned it last
season that they wanted more optionality, not just financially but
lineup wise, and we're seeing it this year. These guys
can all play across the board. You mentioned James Harden,
who play both guard spots. The interesting James Harden factor
in all this is he guards power forwards. Yep, so
(26:38):
he's a one. He's he's a point guard who plays
the four defensively, and that matters, I think to the
Clippers too. So there's a lot of variations we can see.
Clipper fans should be excited. NBA fans should be excited
about this because you're not gonna just see, oh, here's this,
you know, cookie cutter lineup on most lineups. It won't
it won't be a cookie cutter lineup. You'll see all right.
(27:00):
Here's Kawhi at the two. We saw that a little
bit last year. Here's Derek Jones at the two. We
saw that as well. They could be you know, there
could be some variations that are going to be weird,
but that could be quite fun.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Justin I want to ask you about the expectations of
this season as well, Like, obviously given the names that
were brought in, given what we just talked about, like
having two rotations that are this potent, what is you know,
the overarching and expectation for this year is it?
Speaker 2 (27:31):
Is it? You know?
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Don't get me wrong when I say championship or bust,
But given that so many players are in their mid thirties,
here is.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
It that.
Speaker 3 (27:40):
I think they're mostly in Like, uh, if we win
a title, well, well, let me rephrase this. Their philosophy
has been, let's just give ourselves the best chance for
a title that we can rationally give ourselves based on. Yeah,
the tinkering of financial like the players financially and all
this stuff, get players in and out, and then we'll
(28:02):
just wherever the cards fall. That's where they just fall.
This season. I think they're more last season going into it.
Let me start here. Last season, going into it, they
were trying to tell people that they were a playoff team.
A lot of people didn't believe them. I personally pegged
them coming last year. I pegged them at forty two
(28:22):
or forty three wins. They got to fifty. It was
remarkable to watch, really, especially how they started the season
this year. I think they think they can be a
top fourth seed. They have stressed the importance of home court,
especially in the first round of the Western Conference. They
want home court, they want a top four seed. I
(28:43):
think they can get a top four seed. That's probably
their expectation, and anything after that they'll just live with
whatever happens. Because in the West, your second round matchup
at that point is either Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, maybe
in Minnesota, possibly a Lakers. Those are not easy, you know,
series for anybody, right, So they're just like, look, let's
(29:06):
just get a top four seed. Whatever happens after that happens.
But we gave ourselves the best chance.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
I was one of the skeptics coming in last year,
and then I went to Los Angeles where I met you,
by the way against the Spurs, and I don't know
if you remember that game specifically, but they did. They
were down this is a ridiculous score. They were down
fourteen to forty after the first quarter. The Spurs just
(29:31):
completely annihilated them in the first quarter. Then they came
back all the way through. They actually won the game
by nine, and it was off of defense, it was
off three point shooting, it was off a controlled tempo.
And I remember sitting there in the crowd with my
son going, oh, I have misjudged this team, like grotesquely,
(29:52):
Like this team knows how to turn games around, Like
they don't get flustered, they don't really get panicky. This
a veteran team that's seen it all. And now when
we're looking at all the players that have come in,
they too have seen it all. Like tell me a
situation Chris Paul hasn't seen outside of lifting a championship trophy, right,
(30:13):
Like it's been literally everything Brook Lopez, everything, Like those
guys are, you know, a calm presence on the floor,
which allows me to think this team might be even better.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
I told someone yesterday that Chris Paul's acquisition reminds me
of a war vet coming home, Like he's seen everything
there is to offer, so he's he's just there to
experience it, you know, the Homestead one more time. Fun
fact about that Spurs game, by the way, and I
actually told ty lu this after the game. If the
Clippers had lost that game at home to the Spurs,
(30:49):
they would have set the modern record for most losses
to open a new NBA arena. They had been tied
with the Golden State Warriors, who in the twenty nineteen
had also lost their first four game first four home
games of the year at Chase Center. The Warriors won
their fifth game, which is what the Clippers did that
(31:10):
night against the Spurs. That was their fifth home game
the Clippers won, But the date that the Warriors won
that game was November fourth, which was a Monday. When
the Clippers beat the Spurs, it was Monday, November fourth,
So maybe the universe just smiled down on everyone and
made it possible. But it was one of the weird
stats that I had seen that I'd researched and just
been kind of blown away with. And Yeah, that team
(31:34):
played really hard all year. Like that was the one
thing I think going into every game you never had
to worry, oh, are they here trying tonight? Right, because
some teams they'd ebb and flows throughout the year. You know,
some nights its just not there. That Clippers team played
hard every night. Some nights they just didn't have the
gas to see it out. Other nights, they beat teams
that you looked at and like, wow, I can't believe
(31:55):
they won that game. But that was last year's Clippers.
This year's Clippers, maybe they can have some of that.
Maybe they're gonna have to find a little bit different
way to win some of these games on a night
to night basis. But I think their runway for success
(32:16):
this year, their margin of error so to speak, has
greatly increased from where it was twelve months ago.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
And to the point about them, also, we talked about
the roster before. They have one roster spot open. Is
that to retain flexibility for a trade deadline trade or
are they open to maybe even resigning and someone like
Ben Simmons, now you said a mere Coffee wouldn't return,
like he's still out there. Could there be a scenario
where he returns and is you know, more of a
(32:46):
spot player than a rotational one.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
So the Clippers are hard capped at the first Apron
but they're only one point three million under the first
Apron R cap. They technically can't sign a player to
a minimum level contract at this point. They are gonna
have to keep the roster spot open. They're gonna have
to end up. My hypothesis is, as has been in
years past, they're just gonna keep a roster spot open,
(33:09):
and when they get to like the buyout time of
the season in February, they have enough space they can
get someone or enough little bit of leeway to where
if they throw someone in a trade they can get
a little bit money back and just kind of go
from there. They really don't have any space to really
operate at this point, so I'm generally interested. I kind
of just think their off season is done at this point. Yeah,
(33:29):
from like a guaranteed contract standpoint, and look to get
your off season work done by July twenty second is
not bad.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
And that era is on me.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Look, I'm in preseased mode, like this is one of
the first parts of the new year.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Trust me. There's enough numbers good floating through the ether
that I've been lost on many of these things recently
as well.
Speaker 1 (33:51):
And the only thing I missed was the little lock
icon on spot Trek, which is run by our mutual
friend Keith Smith, because if I had not seen that,
I wouldn't have like it. I wouldn't have realized they
were hard kept. So thank you for the inclusion there,
But I mean, this is a scene that feels like
they could be primed to make a move with the
trade deadline as well of something materializes. I mean, they
(34:12):
have a lot of these mitior deals like Bokedan Bogdanovic
at sixteen million, Derek Jones Junior at an even ten
if you want to go down to the more nitty
gritty ones, Chris Dunn at five point four, like there are.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Like, there are possibilities here come February.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
I hate to use the word again. They always have
preached optionality in these last couple of years, especially after
Paul George left in free agency. Their whole thing was optionality.
That's what they've given themselves. The only contracts on the
book past this season as far as fully guaranteed deals
are Kawhi Zubots, DJJ and their first round pick from
(34:54):
this year, jannat Knen Niederhauser. Everyone else is either on
a non guaranteed deal or a team option. So I
mean James is on a player option, but it's partially guaranteed,
So there's that aspect of it as well. They're gonna
have flexibility this come next offseason. But their whole thing
(35:14):
is just hey, let's give ourselves. It's I could choose
your own adventure book. Let's just give ourselves enough pathways
out of whatever situation we're in now, and if we
need to pivot, we can.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
And that speaks into also the long term vision here
because John Collins being at twenty six and a half
and being an expiring contract, like, I love the guy,
but I don't think the market necessarily loves to that extent.
So there's a reasonable chance he can return to the
Clippers next year, like a year from now, on a
deal that's significantly lower than what he's learning right now.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
There's that possibility. I'm genuinely interested to see what a
John Collins market looks like twelve months to eleven months
from now, because it could just depend on what kind
of season he has, but it could also just depend
on how many teams really have money that they're willing
to use on a guy like him. Does he get
thirty million dollars a year? Maybe? I mean if a
team's willing to do it. You know, as I once
(36:12):
had a om Ya Music of ESPN once told me,
which is a great line, we were talking about how
much money certain players could get on the free agent
market a couple of years ago, and his great line
that he once told me was you're worth what someone
pays you. And that's is Jehan Collins worth thirty million
dollars he will be if some team gives it to him.
(36:35):
And that's kind of the reality of the situation. So
I wouldn't be shocked to see him get that much
on the market. Maybe he takes twenty million dollars a year,
because as we started to see, some players have started
to realize if they've made I'm not gonna say enough money,
if they've made a lot of money in their careers,
they have realized, like look in this current climate of
(36:58):
the this CBA and the second Apron ramifications and even
the first Apron ramifications, that if we take a little
bit less money, other guys can come in and help
and that helps everyone. So maybe that's a situation where
John Collins, I'm not saying he should, I'm not saying
he will. I genuinely think most people should just get
(37:21):
as much money as they can. It's a lot easier
that way in life. But for John Collins, maybe eleven
months from now, we look at it and he's like,
you know, maybe I will take twenty million dollars because
the extra six point six million that I left on
the table per year from what I'm making this past season.
Maybe that gets another Bradley Beal type player, And that
(37:42):
could be the difference between a team who wins forty
six games and a team who wins fifty three. You
never know, and I'm genuinely interested to see how that
kind of comes to fruition for a lot of players
as we hit free agency eleven.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
Months from now.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Justin one final question, and I'm just gonna put you
right into the line of fire right here before we Sarah, goodbyes.
How far are this team gonna go? Are they gonna
win the whole thing? Are they not? Like?
Speaker 2 (38:14):
What are you saying? The clippers of the field?
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I taking the field. But I think they can get
to the second round. And I think once you get
to the second round, anything can kind of happen. We
almost saw it happen with Okac in Denver, and and
some would even argue we saw it in the Eastern
Conference with several of those series as well. So you
gotta give yourself a chance, and if you get to
(38:37):
the second round, I genuinely think you have a puncher's
chance of making the finals. And if you have a
puncher's chance of making the finals, you can win the finals,
as we saw with Indiana, you know, almost winning the
finals themselves. So I think this is a for win
total wise, a fifty two to fifty three win team
(39:00):
next year that should could be enough to get top
four and potentially second round and then we'll see from there.
Speaker 1 (39:09):
Thank you so much, sir. Let the good people listening
and know where they can find your work.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
You can find my work at Justin Russo dot substack
dot com. I'm putting out articles every few days. Some
of them lately have been very deep dives that are
very wordy, but have a lot of video and graphs
and stats and all this stuff. That's why I'm doing
my work. If anyone also wants to read on the
LA Sparks and the WNBA, I put stuff out there too.
(39:34):
I also cover a little bit of soccer stuff, both
domestically and internationally, so people care about that they can
read about that too. I I, as I've dubbed myself
a jack of all trades, master of none. I'm just
making my way through life day by day and seeing
what sticks.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
So if I need FC Copenhagen transfer analysis, I can
ask you.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
If you want to talk Roney Bargie, we can talk
Reney Bargie.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
Well, he's just signed with Barcelona.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
I know he didn't and his younger brother might should
do the same.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
Yep, all right, See, I know some things.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
You do you do I well, I mean, look, full disclosure,
you and I we've we've chatted off the show for
a couple of years now, more than a couple of years.
And I know you mentioned Rooney before, but like, yeah,
my team's making moves as well, like they sold him
now they made some purchases.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
I'm excited, man, I'm excited.
Speaker 3 (40:22):
Listen, listen. Every time I see that stadium and I
see someone do like their tour of that stadium, I
find it to be one of the most amazing things
I've ever seen, and I one of my first off
I want to go to Europe to like visit a
lot of soccer teams. I want to go to that
one specifically, Yeah, because it looks incredible.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
It truly does.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
You can I don't think I don't even have account
on how many great stadiums there are around Europe that
I have on my bucket list that I just need
to go see. Honestly, Justin Russo, thank you so much
for taking the time. I'm gonna let you go, And
for everyone listening in, thank you so much for taking
the time. Apologies for having been offline for so long,
but honestly I needed the bigation time. So once again,
(41:01):
thank you to the Hardwood Knocks guys for filling in
until we speak again.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Have a good one everyone,
Hi, and welcome to the NBA Podcast. My name is
Morten Jensen. Back from vacation. Finally, thank you so much
to Dan fa Valley and Grant Us for picking up
the slack over the past couple of episodes. Really appreciate
those guys just stepping in when necessary and make sure
you follow their show over at Hartwood Knocks. Today we'll
(00:24):
be discussing the Los Angeles Clippers, and like last year,
I'm gonna have Clippers Beeed writer Justin Russo on the
podch just discuss everything that's gone on in Los Angeles,
which is a lot.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
Justin How are you, sir?
Speaker 3 (00:39):
Hey?
Speaker 2 (00:39):
You been man doing well?
Speaker 1 (00:41):
So like seriously man like this this has been a wild,
wild offseason for these guys. I mean, look, they were
bounced in the playoffs. Everyone was sort of like, is
this the last gasp of this team? Do they have
to like blow it up? James's contract situation was kind
of like out there. There were even murmurings and mumblings
(01:03):
that he might not return. Not only did he return,
the team also went out and traded for John Collins.
They signed Bradley Beal, now they've signed Chris Paul. I
mean Kawhi Hopefully, and again this is always the big one.
Hopefully he's healthy. The way he looked in the playoffs
was very at least very encouraging. Subas just had the
best season of his career by a freaking mile. You
(01:26):
still have Derk Jones junior back, you have boke Don Bogdanovic,
and oh, by the way, you also signed Brook Lopez
of all people, like, this team legitimately now goes eleven deep,
and dept for a while has been an issue for
this squad. So what do you make of this team
as they head into twenty five to twenty six.
Speaker 3 (01:46):
They're a rather interesting group, Like it's very weird to sity,
Like I know every team likes to say it, like, oh,
we have better talent than we did a year ago.
They genuinely have better talent on their opening day roster,
at least as we stand today a year ago when
they went into opening night, there's by far better talent
on the roster. You know, you mentioned Brook Lopez. They
(02:08):
have a backup center. You mentioned you know, Bradley Beal
starting shooting guard who I guess we can get into
in a little while, who nominally replacing Norman Powell, there's
you know, James Harden's back. James Harden got a little
bit of a pay bump, but also took a little
bit of a pay cut, as he has over the
last couple of years of his career. Kawhi, you mentioned
(02:29):
he's healthy after Game seven when they lost in Game
seven in Denver. I remember asking him, despite everything that
happened the result of the series, he had talked all
season about how he wants to get to the off
season healthy. So I asked him, I said, does it
feel like a mission accomplished free that you actually got
to the off season healthy? And he said, yeah, he
goes Obviously they would have liked to win the series,
but he's healthy going into the new season. Lawrence Frank
(02:52):
the other day, when we talked to him on a
a meeting call, basically said that Kawhi is feeling great.
He's attacking the off season. He's going to be in
Africa pretty soon for for something. So, you know, Kauai
healthy is the biggest factor and everything Clippers related in
terms of how they can do throughout a season. So
(03:12):
the fact he's healthy is good. Zoo. The incredible season
that he had that you touched on. This really is
a very very deep team. But it's not just a
deep team of like guys. It's a deep team of
good basketball players. Yes, they are old, they're very much
up there in age, but I don't think age is
(03:34):
enough to you know, dock them for what they've done
this offseason.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Yeah, no, I agree, And that's been you know, the
running joke amongst the media fans, like, you know what,
what's the what's the bochet on oxygen tanks for this
team this season? Look, by the way, there are a
lot of those twos are fun. By the way, I
like that those are those are those are good?
Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, it's fine. Look, we're all old, they're great.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Well, we were.
Speaker 1 (03:57):
Talking about this before we started recording. You and I
we're definitely old, so like we can relate. But I mean,
it's not like everyone is in their middle of their
thirties or late thirties. Like John Collins, who was acquired
is I think twenty seven, twenty eight. Sue obviously still
in also in that age bracket, right, twenty eight, I think, So,
like there's a lot of those guys there who can
(04:19):
still get to that well how to phrase this, like
who can still tap into their prime years, is kind
of how I want to phrase it.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
The same with Dirt Jones Junior.
Speaker 1 (04:29):
So those guys can at least carry a certain level
of responsibility during the course of the regular season, like
maybe we won't see James or Kawhi, you know, average
big numbers. Perhaps we won't even see Bradley bial average
big numbers. There is a world where in Collins and
Sue take up a lot of that responsibility, and then
when it's time for the playoffs to roll around, that's
(04:51):
when you get your stars aligned. You You sort of
just make sure they're healthy going through the eighty two
game schedule, and then you maybe ramp up over the court.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
So the last month month and a half before the playoffs.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
It's interesting because I also view this from a Kauikes perspective,
where last year when he came back, obviously he was
on a minutes restriction early on during his time and
in his return, but then when they got to about
the middle of February to early March it was I
think it was early March, they had realized that, okay,
we need to see what he has in his tank
(05:25):
for the playoffs, so they ramped him up to about
thirty like the final month and a half of the season,
Kawi was averaging just over thirty six thirty seven minutes
per game. He was routinely getting up there in minutes
and arguably on most nights one of their top two
minutes getters alongside James Harden. So like they had to
see what Kaui had in terms of minutes for the
(05:47):
playoffs to get ready for it. But also as it
pertains of this season, I don't think you're gonna see that.
I think you're gonna see Kawi thirty two to thirty
four minutes maybe on most nights and at least on average,
and then they'll try same thing with James. Probably. Lawrence
Frank today when he talked about the Chris Paul signing
in our conversation media conversation with him, he mentioned that
(06:10):
they want to protect James Harden. James Harden at his
age played the fifth most minutes in the NBA last season.
That's a lot of minutes for a guy with his
with his track record and his workload over his career,
So they want to protect James. They want to protect
He also mentioned protecting a few to zubots where you know,
Zoo played a lot of minutes last season as well.
I think he was top twenty in minutes if I
(06:31):
remember correctly. So they want to protect their most important players,
so I wouldn't be so shocked if you see on
a lot of nights guys are between the twenty four
to thirty minute range and not really going over that.
Speaker 1 (06:45):
Yeah, and look, that is probably the way to go,
especially now that they have the depth, right, Like for
so many years they were forced to play their primary
guys a lot of minutes because they just didn't have
a whole bunch of firepower coming off that bench. Now
can run, like I said, eleven men deep again pending health,
of course, But like just having a guy like booked
(07:06):
On Bogdanovic to me is such a luxury. A guy
who can initiate, you know, actions off the pick and roll,
a guy who can spot up, a guy who can
just get you know, get up points whenever it's needed.
Like it just lowers this necessity of a large scoring
burden on some of those guys, which I think over
the course of an eighty two game schedule is just huge.
(07:27):
And like then there are some guys where whatever they
kind of give you is just cream. Like I don't
expect Nicholas Patoum, for example, to go out and averaged
like ten points per game. He's an older guy, he's
a bit of a big player right now. But he
gives you five or six points per game on quality shooting,
which he gave you last year as well, plus some defense,
plus some quality rebounding. You know what, that just means
(07:49):
less work for everyone else.
Speaker 3 (07:52):
Yeah, Nico averaged four points and three rebounds last year,
which doesn't sound great, but he did it in seventeen
and a half minutes, which for a guy of his
like hierarchy ranking in the Clippers offense is pretty good
because Nico really only ever shot the ball when he
was left completely wide open or if they basically had
(08:14):
guys get funneled away from him. Not because like, oh,
we don't trust Nico shooting, but just because Dash just
his job, He knows his a role. He's he's one
of those guys that I call a point fiver. He
makes a decision within a half a second. He keeps
it moving. If he doesn't have it, he gives it
up and he keeps it moving. There's no lag time,
there's no time that allows defenses to recover. He keeps
(08:36):
everything moving at a nice rate. So you know, Nico's
one of the best role players I think that the
Clippers could ever have on their roster, especially this group.
But then you throwing other guys. You know that we've
ended up talking about Chris Dunn not a real ball sticker,
Like the ball's not gonna stick in his hands all
that much. Derek Jones Jr. Same thing. These are guys
who will get off of it real quick, and I
(08:58):
think that benefits the Clippers, especially with their conglomerate of
talent that they have at their disposal of the season.
I'm I do think there is some uh I guess
not tendency. There are some potential for this to not
really work out because there are a lot of guys there,
Like there's gonna be a lot of egos, as there
(09:18):
should be, right, these are all guys whove accomplished a
lot in their NBA careers. You don't get this far
into your NBA career without having an ego, Otherwise you
know you'd have been out of the league as long
before this. But it can go south. I don't want
to sit here and act like it can't go south.
But I do think the potential for a boon is
a lot larger than the potential for a bust, if
(09:38):
we're being completely honest at this point.
Speaker 1 (09:42):
So obviously Clippers fans were saddened too seeing Norm go
because he was just such a fan favorite and such
a staple and he blew out, you know, blew up
rather last season. What was that average? Like twenty two
per game somewhere along those lines, Like he was just
so efficient and so effective. How is the fan base
reacted overall to basically the trading of him for John Collins.
Speaker 3 (10:07):
I think they came to an understanding that and so
to the front office actually that they needed a power forward,
not BECAUSEWHI so my thought, my personal opinion, Kawhi's best
offensive position is the foe. That's my personal opinion. I
think I think it gives the Clippers offense a greater
luxury of spacing and matchup advantages and all this stuff.
(10:31):
The Clippers felt that they needed a power forward to
basically augment what Kawhi brings offensively while supplying a little
bit more rebounding out of a four spot, a little
bit more athleticism, some rim pressure creation, and everything else
(10:53):
that John Collins can end up bringing. John Collins a
good shooter. He's built himself into a really good three
point shooter for his size, so they felt they needed that,
And I don't think it's a wrong call. Having that
type of player is not a bad thing. I want
to say that, you know, It's just I felt Kawai's
best offensive position was the four, But defensively, Kawhi is
not a four, and that's the biggest takeaway that we've
(11:14):
seen from this move. But that's also why I think
the fan base in the front office has been pretty
much on board with this. Norm for John Collins swap
is we understand that at the time they were gonna
have a hole at shooting guard, but it filled a
vacancy at power forward defensively that they actually needed, and
(11:34):
it gave them a little bit more offensive utility to
where you can have a bigger player on the floor
as a floor space or and a rim threat, which
gives you more offensive dynamism, uh dynamism to where you
can create different types of looks than you had this
season before. You know, with Norman there where Norm was
primarily an on ball driver, off ball shooter, things like that.
(11:55):
Norm wasn't really he wasn't a shock creator for others,
which is an I don't want to say that as
a slide against him. It just it was the reality
of the situation. So but Norm brought a lot of
good things on offense. John Collins gives them a lot
of that in a lot bigger mold, and I think
that mattered to them, especially on the defensive end. You
bump Kwi up a position and last week's then found out, well,
(12:18):
you have a whole shooting guard and you ended up
getting a fifty million dollars shooting guard for a five
dollars for five million dollar discount. So when you're going
bargain hunting for big for you know, uh, great valued
Blu Ray DVDs, you're not gonna you're not gonna argue
with the one that you pick up. Now, Bradley Beal,
(12:38):
I know you didn't ask him about him. Yeah, but
Bradley Beal, for as much as people want to gripe
about him, at fifty million dollars not really worth it.
Five five six million dollars a year, incredible bargain for
the Clippers, and that's their starting shooting guard. So when
you the norm for John Collins deal. The way that
I've always looked at it is it wasn't norm for
(12:59):
John Collins. It was norm for John Collins and then
Bradley Beale, and I think in that instance the Clippers
made out pretty well.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
Oh yeah, and then even Chris Paul joins the crowd
even later on. I mean to me, I was in
Spain when this all went down, and even without the
Bradley Beal acquisition, I still would have done it. I
remember writing about it and I was like, no, you
know what they needed someone bigger, who can really get
(13:27):
things done in the in between area. John Collins is
in my eyes, supremely underrated and has been underrated for
a while. Things started going south in Atlanta for whatever reason,
like his I don't want to say he regressed as
a player, but something just didn't mesh on the floor.
He had really good years and then the production level
started dropping because he became sort of an afterthought. You
(13:49):
would think he would have rehapped his value in Jutah
over the past two years, where he got more shots,
more opportunities. He maintained a high level of efficiency, and
you no, the just didn't really make out that well
in that trade, So that showed you where his value was,
and I think that's only a benefit to the Clippers,
especially when they're definitely a win out team like this
(14:12):
isn't a team that's built for two or three years
down the row.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
They're built right now.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
So let's get into the Bradley Beal stuff, because I'm
glad you brought it up. So there's been a lot
of talk about him either starting or coming off the bench.
He's starting next to James.
Speaker 3 (14:27):
He's starting.
Speaker 2 (14:28):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (14:28):
Yeah, they if you've listened to the stuff they've put out,
they kind of I'm not gonna say they made concessions,
but they made it very apparent that Bradley Beial is
a starting shooting guard for them.
Speaker 1 (14:38):
Yeah, which means that the private let's let's put it
that is James brad Kawhi. I assume John Collins in
the starting lineup. Wheres or are they going to derk
Jones Junior there to have more offensive firepower off the bench.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I've basically been working under the operating this assumption that
John Collins is starting. I've heard nothing different. By the way,
it doesn't doesn't mean he won't. It doesn't mean he
will or won't start, just I just haven't. I've been
operating that he is starting, right. I haven't heard anything
different that they've plus my working theory. If you really
want my working theory, he's making twenty six million dollars.
I just don't assume a guy making twenty six million
(15:15):
dollars when he's the third highest paid player on your team,
is coming off the bench.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
Right.
Speaker 1 (15:20):
So if we assume that that's going to be the
starting lineup with Sue wrapping it out at center, that
has to be one of the most potent starting units, again,
pending health, And we have to underline that consistently because
that is just the nature of the game, and with
Kawhi and his injury pattern it it'd be faulty of
us to not mention it. But assuming health, pending health, like,
(15:43):
where does that starting lineup rank?
Speaker 2 (15:44):
It has to be right up there.
Speaker 1 (15:46):
I mean, I look at this squad, not just the
starting lineup, but the rotation at large, and to me,
this is a clear cut contender.
Speaker 3 (15:55):
It has to. It probably ranks pretty high. At least offensively,
I think it's very defensively we'll see, but their defense,
like it was last year. Now, granted, Chris Dunn and
Derek Jones Junior started either one or both of them
for most of the year, so that also helps your defense.
But a big reason their defense was so good was
also a visa Zubats and he's still a starter, Kawhi
(16:18):
Leonard still a really good defender. I'm interested to see
what that is. They're also going to let and they've
mentioned this to on calls, is Bradley Beal is going
to get the a one defensive option. That's literally they're
gonna let Bradley Beal take on the top perimeter threat
for the opposing teams, at least to start the season.
(16:39):
You can say what you want about Bradley Bial's defense.
A lot of words have been written. I've written quite
a few than myself. It wasn't good in his time
in Phoenix. They are banking on a smaller offensive workload
for Bradley Beal, meaning or at least transitioning and translating
into a better defensive see from him, if you want
(17:01):
to call it that. So maybe there is some of that.
Maybe I mean, we'll just end up seeing. But they
believe in it. They buy into it, They buy into
Bradley Beal as a defender, especially on the perimeter. I'm
curious to see a play out, but that lineup should
be very good offensively. And I kind of think I
(17:21):
wrote about this a little bit, like on social media
and stuff, even when I wrote my Bradley Bial piece,
it was I do think that we as a basketball
society and community have tended to overvalue defense over offense.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (17:37):
And I don't mean that like defense doesn't matter, and
I don't mean to get like philosophical, but I think
we have looked at defensive first players and overvalued them
when year after year we see them get played off
the floor in a postseason because opposing defenses don't respect
them as far as floor spacers and shooters and offensive engines.
(18:01):
And I kind of think we've now, at least the Clippers,
I maybe have thought this that they've kind of worked
themselves back into all right, Look, we were the top
three defense last year, but we had a middle of
the road offense. Now granted, when Kawhi Letard came back
in January of this past year this season, they had
like a top five offense in the league or top
(18:22):
ten offense in the league. So they were really good.
But I think they saw, and we have seen over
the years, middling defensive teams and great offensive teams, but
middling defensive teams play up defensively in the postseason, so
where they have better defenses in a postseason where everything
(18:42):
can scale upward because your best players play more minutes,
everyone plays with more intensity, the games matter, YadA, YadA, YadA.
I think that's kind of what the Clippers are buying
it to is like, look, look, we were top three
in defense last year. We were middle of the road offensively.
What if we were just top five an offense and
fifteenth in defense or maybe even tenth defensively? Is that
(19:05):
a better contrast for them in terms of success? And
I guess we're gonna end up finding out because that's
probably gonna end up. What happens is they might end
up with a top five or seven offense and they
might end up with a maybe fringe top ten defense.
Speaker 1 (19:21):
I've been saying something similar to what you just proposed
there in terms of how defense has been a little
bit overrated for the past five years on this show.
Like I drove Brian to Porik nuts when talking about it,
because it's it to me, when you have those guys
who just can't facilitate anything offensively, like for example, and
(19:42):
Matisse Stipel is always one of my primary examples of this.
I love Matis Stipel's defense, love it, Like if he
could sustainably stay on the floor forty thirty five minutes
per game, he's probably a defensive player of the year.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
But the thing is.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
When he has to be, you know, spoon fed offense
insistently because he can't create his own in any way,
stretch or form, and that three ball can just, let's
be real, occasionally just air bowl the crab out of things.
You can't trust it. You can't trust it in the
playoff setting. You can't even trust it in a high
end role in the regular season. So I agree with
(20:17):
you on that. I think that is a very very
astute note, especially for this team, and also to your
point about maybe them finishing fifteen thor even tent. They
have a shit ton of defense coming off the bench,
like Chris Dunn, Derek Jones, Junior Broke Lopez, a former
DPO Y candidate right there at the rim like this,
(20:40):
even Chris Paul, I know he's slower, I know he's older,
that guy still knows how to navigate defensively, like he
knows how to call his stuff out. I'm not out
on this Clippers defense at all.
Speaker 3 (20:53):
It's very interesting because I had this exact same conversation
with someone yesterday, which is that because they're point to
me was it does feel like they've sacrificed some of
their defensive identity from last season with the guys that
they brought in. But I made the point that if
you look at their the players that played at least
a thousand minutes on the Clippers last season, which I
believe there was eight. I want to say there was
(21:14):
eight of them, maybe was seven. But of the players
that played one thousand minutes, only two of them are
not coming back. And the two players who are not
coming back are Norman Powell and Mirror Coffee. Now, those
two players were really good offensively for the Clippers. I
don't want that to get misconstrued, but they were not
defensive players for the most part last season. So none
of the guys who lived through that defensive mentality quote
(21:38):
unquote are gone. Like you mentioned, Chris Dunn is still there,
Derek Jones Junior is still there, Brook Lopez is coming in.
I'm oddly fascinated to see what a brook Lopez bench
lineup defense can look like, because when I did my
brook Lopez deep dive and I wrote about him, it
took him ten years in the NBA to even get
(21:59):
on a good defensive team. But none of that was
his fault, because his teams were far better with him
on the floor defensively. When I ended up going through
all the data and stuff, He's a wholly unique player,
and I do find it rather interesting that for years
the Clippers tried to figure out a way to have
diverging defensive thoughts between their starting center and their backup center,
(22:23):
Viza Zubots primarily a drop big. Brook Lopez also, obviously,
as we all know, primarily a drop coverage big. In
the past, though, the Clippers tried to have Zoo drop
coverage and then another center who could play more up
to the level of the screen. I famously remember Mason
Plumley when he first came to the Clippers. I actually
asked him as an introductory pressor at the practice facility,
(22:46):
what type of defensive style do you do you prefer
because the Clippers like drop coverage. He said to me,
He's an at the level big so you like to
come up to the at the level of the screen
and play off of that. These are the types of
the bigs the Clippers have usually gone after for bench
for bench, but brook Lopez flies in the face of that.
He's the antithesis of that. So I'm genuinely interested to
(23:06):
see a second year of jeff ban Gundhi led defense
and scheme defense. With one style, it's primarily going to
be a drop coverage across the board unless they play
small at times, and you're gonna get the switching and
everything else right. But I'm genuinely interested to see a
play out because this is the first time the Clippers
in a long long time have adhere to one style
(23:29):
across the center spectrum.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
There's also the element of positional fluidity on this team
that struck me as I was doing some of my
research before we started recording here.
Speaker 1 (23:41):
Like outside of Chris Paul and Sue or less well
brook Lopez two, we just talked about everyone else is
capable of playing multiple positions, which means you can get
so many different fun looks. Like Derek Jones junior at center, Yeah,
why not him at the three.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Sure, why not?
Speaker 1 (23:59):
He's quick enough. He can guard three's John Collins both
the four and the five. We know that James can
play both guard spots. Kawhi can play both four spots.
He can even slide down to the two occasionally. Like
you don't want him there full time, but if you
want to go super big and you're going to want
to go super long for five minutes, yeah, he can
hold his own. Even book Don can play like on
(24:19):
the ball to a point where he kind of plays
the one to two and even the three, but soon
despite being older than dirt at this point, it's also
like you said, like, well you called him a point five.
That was in terms of getting the ball out of
his hands in point five seconds. But like, yeah, he
can play three positions Chris Dune two, Bradley Beal two
to three. I just love how there are so many
(24:41):
options here in terms of how you can build a rotation.
Like if you want to tinker with something, you can
just kind of ask a guy, hey, you know, mind
taking the two, mind taking this. There's a lot of
fun stuff here for the Clippers coming in because.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
In my article about Brook Lopez, I specifically reference how
in the last two seasons in Milwaukee, he played alongside
Giannis and Bobby Portis combined twenty two minutes over two years.
This is across ninety five or yeah, I believe across
ninety five games that they all could have been playing together.
(25:20):
Like you never really saw the three big guys play together,
which I understand. Bobby Portis technically was their backup center,
and then Brook Lopez their startings. But like, twenty two
minutes in two years, probably would have liked to at
least see a little bit of it more, just to
see what you had. But I ended up writing in
my direct quotas experimentation isn't supposed to be feared. It's
(25:40):
meant to be embraced and tinkered with. And I think
you can expect ty Lou to try things like this
just to see if it can work, because the Clippers
are gonna have to see what the euphemism is, You
just throw enough crap at the wall, you see what sticks.
And that's what they might have to end up doing,
is you just see what you can end up getting
out of stuff. So Brook Lopez, it's crazy that he
(26:04):
could play next to Viata Zubats for five minutes in
a game. Maybe maybe not. I don't know. You can
get weird. It's basketball, why not.
Speaker 2 (26:13):
Get weird sometimes?
Speaker 3 (26:15):
But their lineup versatility is something they've talked to Lawrence
Frank has talked to several times. He mentioned it last
season that they wanted more optionality, not just financially but
lineup wise, and we're seeing it this year. These guys
can all play across the board. You mentioned James Harden,
who play both guard spots. The interesting James Harden factor
in all this is he guards power forwards. Yep, so
(26:38):
he's a one. He's he's a point guard who plays
the four defensively, and that matters, I think to the
Clippers too. So there's a lot of variations we can see.
Clipper fans should be excited. NBA fans should be excited
about this because you're not gonna just see, oh, here's this,
you know, cookie cutter lineup on most lineups. It won't
it won't be a cookie cutter lineup. You'll see all right.
(27:00):
Here's Kawhi at the two. We saw that a little
bit last year. Here's Derek Jones at the two. We
saw that as well. They could be you know, there
could be some variations that are going to be weird,
but that could be quite fun.
Speaker 1 (27:14):
Justin I want to ask you about the expectations of
this season as well, Like, obviously given the names that
were brought in, given what we just talked about, like
having two rotations that are this potent, what is you know,
the overarching and expectation for this year is it?
Speaker 2 (27:31):
Is it? You know?
Speaker 1 (27:32):
Don't get me wrong when I say championship or bust,
But given that so many players are in their mid thirties,
here is.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
It that.
Speaker 3 (27:40):
I think they're mostly in Like, uh, if we win
a title, well, well, let me rephrase this. Their philosophy
has been, let's just give ourselves the best chance for
a title that we can rationally give ourselves based on. Yeah,
the tinkering of financial like the players financially and all
this stuff, get players in and out, and then we'll
(28:02):
just wherever the cards fall. That's where they just fall.
This season. I think they're more last season going into it.
Let me start here. Last season, going into it, they
were trying to tell people that they were a playoff team.
A lot of people didn't believe them. I personally pegged
them coming last year. I pegged them at forty two
(28:22):
or forty three wins. They got to fifty. It was
remarkable to watch, really, especially how they started the season
this year. I think they think they can be a
top fourth seed. They have stressed the importance of home court,
especially in the first round of the Western Conference. They
want home court, they want a top four seed. I
(28:43):
think they can get a top four seed. That's probably
their expectation, and anything after that they'll just live with
whatever happens. Because in the West, your second round matchup
at that point is either Oklahoma City, Denver, Houston, maybe
in Minnesota, possibly a Lakers. Those are not easy, you know,
series for anybody, right, So they're just like, look, let's
(29:06):
just get a top four seed. Whatever happens after that happens.
But we gave ourselves the best chance.
Speaker 1 (29:10):
I was one of the skeptics coming in last year,
and then I went to Los Angeles where I met you,
by the way against the Spurs, and I don't know
if you remember that game specifically, but they did. They
were down this is a ridiculous score. They were down
fourteen to forty after the first quarter. The Spurs just
(29:31):
completely annihilated them in the first quarter. Then they came
back all the way through. They actually won the game
by nine, and it was off of defense, it was
off three point shooting, it was off a controlled tempo.
And I remember sitting there in the crowd with my
son going, oh, I have misjudged this team, like grotesquely,
(29:52):
Like this team knows how to turn games around, Like
they don't get flustered, they don't really get panicky. This
a veteran team that's seen it all. And now when
we're looking at all the players that have come in,
they too have seen it all. Like tell me a
situation Chris Paul hasn't seen outside of lifting a championship trophy, right,
(30:13):
Like it's been literally everything Brook Lopez, everything, Like those
guys are, you know, a calm presence on the floor,
which allows me to think this team might be even better.
Speaker 3 (30:27):
I told someone yesterday that Chris Paul's acquisition reminds me
of a war vet coming home, Like he's seen everything
there is to offer, so he's he's just there to
experience it, you know, the Homestead one more time. Fun
fact about that Spurs game, by the way, and I
actually told ty lu this after the game. If the
Clippers had lost that game at home to the Spurs,
(30:49):
they would have set the modern record for most losses
to open a new NBA arena. They had been tied
with the Golden State Warriors, who in the twenty nineteen
had also lost their first four game first four home
games of the year at Chase Center. The Warriors won
their fifth game, which is what the Clippers did that
(31:10):
night against the Spurs. That was their fifth home game
the Clippers won, But the date that the Warriors won
that game was November fourth, which was a Monday. When
the Clippers beat the Spurs, it was Monday, November fourth,
So maybe the universe just smiled down on everyone and
made it possible. But it was one of the weird
stats that I had seen that I'd researched and just
been kind of blown away with. And Yeah, that team
(31:34):
played really hard all year. Like that was the one
thing I think going into every game you never had
to worry, oh, are they here trying tonight? Right, because
some teams they'd ebb and flows throughout the year. You know,
some nights its just not there. That Clippers team played
hard every night. Some nights they just didn't have the
gas to see it out. Other nights, they beat teams
that you looked at and like, wow, I can't believe
(31:55):
they won that game. But that was last year's Clippers.
This year's Clippers, maybe they can have some of that.
Maybe they're gonna have to find a little bit different
way to win some of these games on a night
to night basis. But I think their runway for success
(32:16):
this year, their margin of error so to speak, has
greatly increased from where it was twelve months ago.
Speaker 1 (32:23):
And to the point about them, also, we talked about
the roster before. They have one roster spot open. Is
that to retain flexibility for a trade deadline trade or
are they open to maybe even resigning and someone like
Ben Simmons, now you said a mere Coffee wouldn't return,
like he's still out there. Could there be a scenario
where he returns and is you know, more of a
(32:46):
spot player than a rotational one.
Speaker 3 (32:48):
So the Clippers are hard capped at the first Apron
but they're only one point three million under the first
Apron R cap. They technically can't sign a player to
a minimum level contract at this point. They are gonna
have to keep the roster spot open. They're gonna have
to end up. My hypothesis is, as has been in
years past, they're just gonna keep a roster spot open,
(33:09):
and when they get to like the buyout time of
the season in February, they have enough space they can
get someone or enough little bit of leeway to where
if they throw someone in a trade they can get
a little bit money back and just kind of go
from there. They really don't have any space to really
operate at this point, so I'm generally interested. I kind
of just think their off season is done at this point. Yeah,
(33:29):
from like a guaranteed contract standpoint, and look to get
your off season work done by July twenty second is
not bad.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
And that era is on me.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
Look, I'm in preseased mode, like this is one of
the first parts of the new year.
Speaker 3 (33:45):
Trust me. There's enough numbers good floating through the ether
that I've been lost on many of these things recently
as well.
Speaker 1 (33:51):
And the only thing I missed was the little lock
icon on spot Trek, which is run by our mutual
friend Keith Smith, because if I had not seen that,
I wouldn't have like it. I wouldn't have realized they
were hard kept. So thank you for the inclusion there,
But I mean, this is a scene that feels like
they could be primed to make a move with the
trade deadline as well of something materializes. I mean, they
(34:12):
have a lot of these mitior deals like Bokedan Bogdanovic
at sixteen million, Derek Jones Junior at an even ten
if you want to go down to the more nitty
gritty ones, Chris Dunn at five point four, like there are.
Speaker 2 (34:26):
Like, there are possibilities here come February.
Speaker 3 (34:32):
I hate to use the word again. They always have
preached optionality in these last couple of years, especially after
Paul George left in free agency. Their whole thing was optionality.
That's what they've given themselves. The only contracts on the
book past this season as far as fully guaranteed deals
are Kawhi Zubots, DJJ and their first round pick from
(34:54):
this year, jannat Knen Niederhauser. Everyone else is either on
a non guaranteed deal or a team option. So I
mean James is on a player option, but it's partially guaranteed,
So there's that aspect of it as well. They're gonna
have flexibility this come next offseason. But their whole thing
(35:14):
is just hey, let's give ourselves. It's I could choose
your own adventure book. Let's just give ourselves enough pathways
out of whatever situation we're in now, and if we
need to pivot, we can.
Speaker 1 (35:27):
And that speaks into also the long term vision here
because John Collins being at twenty six and a half
and being an expiring contract, like, I love the guy,
but I don't think the market necessarily loves to that extent.
So there's a reasonable chance he can return to the
Clippers next year, like a year from now, on a
deal that's significantly lower than what he's learning right now.
Speaker 3 (35:49):
There's that possibility. I'm genuinely interested to see what a
John Collins market looks like twelve months to eleven months
from now, because it could just depend on what kind
of season he has, but it could also just depend
on how many teams really have money that they're willing
to use on a guy like him. Does he get
thirty million dollars a year? Maybe? I mean if a
team's willing to do it. You know, as I once
(36:12):
had a om Ya Music of ESPN once told me,
which is a great line, we were talking about how
much money certain players could get on the free agent
market a couple of years ago, and his great line
that he once told me was you're worth what someone
pays you. And that's is Jehan Collins worth thirty million
dollars he will be if some team gives it to him.
(36:35):
And that's kind of the reality of the situation. So
I wouldn't be shocked to see him get that much
on the market. Maybe he takes twenty million dollars a year,
because as we started to see, some players have started
to realize if they've made I'm not gonna say enough money,
if they've made a lot of money in their careers,
they have realized, like look in this current climate of
(36:58):
the this CBA and the second Apron ramifications and even
the first Apron ramifications, that if we take a little
bit less money, other guys can come in and help
and that helps everyone. So maybe that's a situation where
John Collins, I'm not saying he should, I'm not saying
he will. I genuinely think most people should just get
(37:21):
as much money as they can. It's a lot easier
that way in life. But for John Collins, maybe eleven
months from now, we look at it and he's like,
you know, maybe I will take twenty million dollars because
the extra six point six million that I left on
the table per year from what I'm making this past season.
Maybe that gets another Bradley Beal type player, And that
(37:42):
could be the difference between a team who wins forty
six games and a team who wins fifty three. You
never know, and I'm genuinely interested to see how that
kind of comes to fruition for a lot of players
as we hit free agency eleven.
Speaker 2 (38:00):
Months from now.
Speaker 1 (38:02):
Justin one final question, and I'm just gonna put you
right into the line of fire right here before we Sarah, goodbyes.
How far are this team gonna go? Are they gonna
win the whole thing? Are they not? Like?
Speaker 2 (38:14):
What are you saying? The clippers of the field?
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I taking the field. But I think they can get
to the second round. And I think once you get
to the second round, anything can kind of happen. We
almost saw it happen with Okac in Denver, and and
some would even argue we saw it in the Eastern
Conference with several of those series as well. So you
gotta give yourself a chance, and if you get to
(38:37):
the second round, I genuinely think you have a puncher's
chance of making the finals. And if you have a
puncher's chance of making the finals, you can win the finals,
as we saw with Indiana, you know, almost winning the
finals themselves. So I think this is a for win
total wise, a fifty two to fifty three win team
(39:00):
next year that should could be enough to get top
four and potentially second round and then we'll see from there.
Speaker 1 (39:09):
Thank you so much, sir. Let the good people listening
and know where they can find your work.
Speaker 3 (39:13):
You can find my work at Justin Russo dot substack
dot com. I'm putting out articles every few days. Some
of them lately have been very deep dives that are
very wordy, but have a lot of video and graphs
and stats and all this stuff. That's why I'm doing
my work. If anyone also wants to read on the
LA Sparks and the WNBA, I put stuff out there too.
(39:34):
I also cover a little bit of soccer stuff, both
domestically and internationally, so people care about that they can
read about that too. I I, as I've dubbed myself
a jack of all trades, master of none. I'm just
making my way through life day by day and seeing
what sticks.
Speaker 1 (39:47):
So if I need FC Copenhagen transfer analysis, I can
ask you.
Speaker 3 (39:53):
If you want to talk Roney Bargie, we can talk
Reney Bargie.
Speaker 2 (39:56):
Well, he's just signed with Barcelona.
Speaker 3 (39:58):
I know he didn't and his younger brother might should
do the same.
Speaker 2 (40:00):
Yeah, it's gonna be interesting.
Speaker 3 (40:02):
Yep, all right, See, I know some things.
Speaker 1 (40:04):
You do you do I well, I mean, look, full disclosure,
you and I we've we've chatted off the show for
a couple of years now, more than a couple of years.
And I know you mentioned Rooney before, but like, yeah,
my team's making moves as well, like they sold him
now they made some purchases.
Speaker 2 (40:20):
I'm excited, man, I'm excited.
Speaker 3 (40:22):
Listen, listen. Every time I see that stadium and I
see someone do like their tour of that stadium, I
find it to be one of the most amazing things
I've ever seen, and I one of my first off
I want to go to Europe to like visit a
lot of soccer teams. I want to go to that
one specifically, Yeah, because it looks incredible.
Speaker 2 (40:38):
It truly does.
Speaker 1 (40:39):
You can I don't think I don't even have account
on how many great stadiums there are around Europe that
I have on my bucket list that I just need
to go see. Honestly, Justin Russo, thank you so much
for taking the time. I'm gonna let you go, And
for everyone listening in, thank you so much for taking
the time. Apologies for having been offline for so long,
but honestly I needed the bigation time. So once again,
(41:01):
thank you to the Hardwood Knocks guys for filling in
until we speak again.
Speaker 2 (41:06):
Have a good one everyone,
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