Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:07):
Hi, my name is Morton Jensen, and you're listening to
the NBA podcast. Hi, and welcome to the NBA Podcast.
My name is Morton Jensen, and today we'll be discussing
some salary cap implications of the new pivot that we've
seen in recent years where team prioritized depth instead of,
(00:29):
for example, a three max model. And as you all know,
when it comes to cap stuff in salaries and whatnot,
there is no one in the business better than the
one and the only Keith Smith. So obviously I brought
him to you. Keith, how are you, sir?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
I'm doing well. It was either that or the other
guys who were unavailable, but either way, I'm here.
Speaker 1 (00:53):
So look, it's it's basically an open ended question here
with the with the way that the teams are now
structuring their books, because no one does it the same way.
But if we were to try to like find some
type of middleweight that most would try to graviate towards,
I assume it's going to be teams thinking, yeah, let's
(01:14):
pivot off of the three max model. Primarily, there are
some exceptions. The Yoklahoma City Thunder have fully leaned into it,
but basically to say, we want to have these ten
eleven players ready for the playoffs. The days of having
just you know, six rotation players in the finals are
dead and buried. We don't want to return to that.
(01:35):
And that is going to have some type of I
don't know if consequences is the right word. It's going
to have an effect at the very least on one's
cap sheet, because if you want to have ten players
or eleven players who are all you know, good and
capable and ready to play in, for example, a finals environment,
you got to pay up a little bit. So, Keith,
(01:56):
I want to just start off with that, like, how
do you think teams are going to try to structure
their books moving forward in terms of like having these
midshire contract and players who are you know, good players,
players who can produce at that level in the playoffs
without necessarily you know, painting themselves into a corner.
Speaker 2 (02:17):
Yeah, I think what the approach now is and through
a lot of conversations with front offices and coaches and
even with agents too, because they're you know, they're they're
on the other side of this, but dealing with the
exact same things as far as contracts go, is teams
really now they know, if we want to win a championship,
(02:38):
we need to have one hundred games of depth. And
I think what they have really come around to is,
we've got to get through the regular season, and you
can no longer take the approach of just getting to
the playoffs and we'll figure it out. Yes, Miami won
a couple times and made pretty good runs from lower seeds,
but it's just that's that's so rare. You're generally you've
(03:01):
got to be a top four seed if you're gonna
make any kind of real run in the NBA. So
I think where teams are at now is to your point,
is it's no longer enough to be like, well, we
can kind of get through the regular season with guys
eight through fifteen eighteen if you count the two way
guys on the roster just being minimum guys and fringe guys,
(03:22):
and you know rookies who were drafted in the second
round or even very late first rounders that aren't ready, like,
we can throw them in the regular season and we'll
figure it out. Because now I think teams have looked
at it and said, well, you know, what's gonna happen
in the course of the eighty two game regular season.
We're gonna play fifty sixty seventy of those eighty two
(03:43):
games right without one or more rotation players. So we
need to have a minimum of eight to ten to
twelve guys, and we feel really good about in the rotation.
Then when we cut down into the playoff, you know,
the old you play six trust eight or whatever you know,
or play eight trust six kind of thought process that's
(04:05):
out there. Is not that that's not true, because it
still is true, but I think it's really in a
spot where it is we like, that's more play ten
trust eight kind of thing because teams are like no,
and even in those early rounds, you don't want to
be playing your guys forty forty five minutes and burning
(04:27):
them out in the first and second round if your
goal is to win the NBA titles. So that's changed, now,
how is that starting to change the roster building? You're
absolutely right, unless you are like the minimum contract whisperer,
you can't have three max guys and then go in
and fill out with a bunch of minimum guys and
(04:48):
feel really good about it. We saw what happened when
the Phoenix Suns tried to do it. It wasn't very good, right,
They really struggled. So I think what we're now going
to see is teams are going to be Yeah, and
I know you mentioned okayse so we'll set them to
the side momentarily because they're they're they're just in such
a unique situation. But I think we're gonna see teams
(05:12):
two max guys is probably still going to be a thing,
whether that's traded for them, signed them. Probably not as
often because guys just started hitting free agency like that,
but more we acquired them, whether we acquired through the
draft and then developed them into a MAX guy, or
we traded for him and gave him a max one
way or the other. Then it's going to be a
(05:32):
couple contracts that sit in the middle, like twenty to
thirty million, then a couple more in the ten to
fifteen range, and then the rest are your rookie scale guys,
your second round picks, and your minimum just because that's
how you're gonna build up depth. Unless you're again the
thunder where it's we have countless draft picks and we
can just keep rolling them over until we find guys
(05:55):
that hit. You're not necessarily in a spa where you
can run it out that way and it even them.
I mean, it's all gonna come home to roost here
in a few years. It's not this year, and it's
not next year, as much as I think people are
hoping maybe it will be it avoiding the inevitable well
just right, okay, see into the finals each year. But
I do think we're in a spot. But we're gonna
(06:15):
see even them in a few years. They're gonna get
hit by this as well, and they're gonna have to
start thinking about their roster in slightly different terms as well.
And that's that. That's just how it is now in
the New New world, with the aprons and all that,
because it's no longer enough just to say, well, we'll
pay whatever the tax bill is. That's why they put
(06:36):
in all the apron restrictions, because they had to make
it painful to avoid teams that were, you know, Steve
Ballmer's of the world. Who are he found the money
in the couch cushions this morning? Pay you know, a
twenty million dollar tax bill. He doesn't care fifty hundred,
you know, I mean, these teams that were gonna be
half a billion dollars, you just can't.
Speaker 1 (06:54):
Have that, right. It's interesting with okay, see, because you're
absolutely right that that's so point they're going to have
to make decisions. I wrote about this over at Yahoo
Sports several months ago, in fact, where I was basically
trying to identify the contracts that would be there somewhat
long term, Like a guy like Aaron Wiggins is just
too valuable because of the declining factor, for example, like
(07:16):
he's gonna earn ten million, ten point one million rather
this year then it drops down to nine to two
than eight three. That's just such a good deal that
you almost can't get or find or identify anything better
at that cost point. But the name to me from
them is like Cason Wallace for example, like good player,
(07:36):
what does he want in free agency when his new
contract is up? Like is he looking for twenty million
eighteen million at thereabouts? Can they afford that? Or to
your point, are they just going to say, well, you
know what, let's trade Wallace for a first round pick
and then just roll it back and then just go
with a new rookie. It's it's such a luxurious problem
(07:57):
to really have in in many ways, right, I mean this,
they'll find a way because they just kept having this flexibility,
which leads into my next question. Draft picks. Obviously, especially
first round draft picks, they come with the set rookie
scale figure. So you would almost have to assume, under
this new CPA and under this new preference of having debt,
(08:22):
that it would be an asset for teams to have
a couple of rookie contracts on their books, maybe not
draft for the same year, but guys who might be
a couple of years into it, so they aren't quote
unquote sucky rookies. But like they've had their their they
they've had they've dipped their toes in the water like
they were accustomed. They they're becoming rotation players, but at
(08:42):
a rookie scale contract. So like, does that mean the
value of draft picks is going to significantly increase the
further into the CPA we get you think, yeah.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
I think we are. I hesitate to say done. I
don't like to use very definitive terms like that. They
never because anytime that happens, they you know, it's Dan
gets traded, right, and it's right, well, you know so so,
but I think we are rarely going to see the
(09:15):
here's four picks and three swaps trades anymore for a guy,
unless it is a team is one hundred percent certain
that is the guy to put us over the top
to be a true title contender. When I mean title contender,
it's like, we feel really good that we will be
(09:36):
in the NBA Finals within the next few years, and
if we're not, then we have failed, yeah, kind of
at this process. So so that's part one of my
answer to that is I think because of that those
being rare is because teams are going to value those
draft picks. Like, for example, I'll use Boston in the
(09:59):
last you know, Boston, they were before the Tatum injury.
I believed if they were at least in the finals again,
and they probably weren't gonna be Let's be completely fair,
the Knicks were on their way to winning that series
before Jason Tatum got hurt. But had they made the
NBA Finals again, I don't think they were going to
(10:19):
break up the team. I think they were going to
take the approach of all right, we made it back
to the finals, we won, didn't win, whatever it was,
but we were right there. Let's keep the team together.
Well for them, is that's where had they done that
that's where it becomes important to I need to hold
onto my picks because I need to be able to backfill,
(10:40):
you know later as you know, as we we lose
a Luke Cornett, we need to be able to backfill
with a draft pick and get there. Now. Obviously Tatum
get getting hurt. It's the wrong term to use, but
that gave them the cover to start to tear down
a year earlier, and they did it, so you know,
what's done is done. But that's where I think some
(11:00):
of these teams are going to look at it and say,
we need to start hanging on to our picks as
we build up because we don't want to be without.
We don't want to be pick poor going into the future,
because the picks are how we're going to keep moving
this thing, this thing forward. And that's especially true of
the teams I think that feel like, hey, we can
nail a pick in the late twenties in the first round.
(11:24):
We we we know we can get the right guy
ah in here. So so I think it is you
know a spot there where let's get that done. And
I think what what you're gonna see as teams act
accordingly to that where it is let's hang on to
these a little bit more. Of course, someone is always
going to say, oh my gosh, Giannis is available, let
(11:46):
me empty the you know, click to go get Yannis
and we'll go nuts and we're gonna we're gonna, you know,
load up and try to get him. But more often
than not, I don't know how many of those trades
are actually working the way teams have wanted them to
work out recently. Hey, it's I'm probably missing one. But
(12:08):
like when the Celtics even traded for KG, I mean
and gosh, we're going back seventeen years ago. Yeah, now
that was I guess even eighteen years ago. That was
like they didn't even fully unload the draft pick thing.
And it feels like almost every other time it hasn't
worked out in the realm of we won a title.
(12:30):
I'm probably missing one, and someone probably yell at me
and be like, you idiot, it's just you know.
Speaker 1 (12:35):
It's Davis, right, so we can we can get the
yelling out the fair.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
But they even held off on a couple picks, right,
They don't think they sent the amount of picks that
they could have sent out. So but but they also
supplemented with three consecutive I think number two picks or
maybe top you know, a couple picks with Lonzo Ingram
and Randall all went maybe random Did Randall go on
that trade? I can't remember, but irregardless, they sent players.
(13:05):
So that's that's the difference, though. I think now it'll
be the combination of players in picks we'll get you there,
versus just straight pick trades. We can argue as the
Donovan Mitchell trade worked out, it hasn't gone badly. Calves
haven't even made a final. They haven't even made an
East Finals yet, right, so you know where we have
with that. But that's a very long answer of the
(13:28):
long way around saying I think we're getting to a
point where teams are going to be a lot more
stingy were valuing the draft picks, then just all right,
we'll throw in the extras, in the swaps and everything
we can to get deals done.
Speaker 1 (13:43):
If memory serves, Randall signed outright, right, I don't. Yeah,
I know that there was something funny about Yeah.
Speaker 2 (13:50):
I'm like they all ended up there, but how did
they get there? Like, that's that's what I'm right.
Speaker 1 (13:55):
I just I remember seeing something as well that when
he was traded last year. Wolves that there was someone
said something to the tune that this is the first
time Julius Randall has ever.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
Been trained mine straight straight up, yeah, with the Pelicans.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Yeah, but but like I get it because that that
was another Laker who went there.
Speaker 2 (14:16):
Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1 (14:16):
They were all Lakers there, Yeah.
Speaker 2 (14:19):
At one point. Yeah, you forget eventually all the ones
they sent there that are no longer there anymore now
that brendan Or's gone.
Speaker 1 (14:27):
Look in fairness, keeping track of every transaction that is, like,
I remember a lot of it. I even remember stuff
from the nineties. But I'll I'll concede Keith, I'm reaching
an age where I have to go check, man, I
have to go check.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I have to check a lot more often than I
used to to. It's right. I like to think our
brains only have so much capacity. Yeah, and there's only
so many things I can remember, And there's only so
many times I can go to the grocery store and
forget key items that I have to preserve some of
my brain power.
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Right, oh yeah, yep, say, And then again, our brains
get smaller as wee age. So like we're we're we're
f to Keith that's basically the premise that we can
go here. But so there's an interesting team I want
to talk about here because I think they're especially interesting
to track moving forward. I also recently wrote about them
(15:20):
over at Yahoo, and it's a process that I'm I'm
very optimistic about in terms of, like again, their process.
I'm not saying the results are there yet. We don't
know if it's going to field results the Wizards. So
the Wizards right now are you know, their two highest
paid contracts are Chris Middleton and CJ. McCollum, older guys
who won't be there a couple of years from now.
(15:41):
But they're taking this different approach now where they're saying,
you know, we don't mind spending you know, sixty three
or how our sixty four million whatever it is on
these two guys because they are going to be mentors, teachers,
all that, and they're they're expiring as well. I thought
that an interesting use of cap space, and I'm wondering now,
(16:04):
with the more punitive salary floor that you have to hit,
whether that could be another thing that we kind of
see moving forward with teams that are rebuilding, you know,
instead of having prime guys who you're spending a lot
of money on you're basically saying, well, screw that. That
doesn't make sense because we still need to get touches
and shots and whatnot to all our players, to our
(16:26):
young players, they need to have develop intol minutes. So
in order to help them get off the right track,
let's bring in high value locker room guys and we'll
pay it through the nose for it.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Yeah, I think what we're seeing. So with the Wizards
good example, because a lot of people at the trade
deadline are like, why did they go get these guys?
Why did they take on Middleton and take on Smart?
And the easy answer is, well, they get paid to
do it. And then were why would you get CJ. McCollum. Well,
the easy answer there is you got off Jordan Poole
at an extra year on his versus McCollum. But the
(17:03):
basketball answer is you can't be too young. If you
are too young, who's who's setting the tone for these kids,
Who's the guy who guarantee you one of probably several more,
but at least one of these young Wizards players. When
and let's be positive, when they get good with these
(17:26):
young guys, we'll say you know, when I was a
younger guy and I was coming into the gym and
Chris Middleton or CJ. McCallum had already been there for
two hours getting their working. It showed me like this
is how you do it. And you want those veterans
that can hey, when it's that fifth straight loss and
(17:47):
you're you just got drilled by twenty can put their
arm around the kid's shoulder and be like, hey, I've
been here, Like it will get better. Here's how we
get better, because if you go too young, it's gonna
get messy. Like look at the two seasons ago, they
were like circus. I mean, I like to say, you
(18:07):
are more likely to see the popcorn vendor get bean
in the head with a pass from some fail daley
loop than you were to see incredible basketball. Whereas like
this is great now, they were like must watch TV
for me because you never know what you're gonna see.
You might see a feet of athleticism that few teams
can match, and you might see an old lady get
(18:29):
knocked out in the first row. You know, as somebody goes,
you know, does something crazy right when they signed two
years or I guess a year I guess it was
a little more than a year ago, but when they
got Van Vliet and Dylan Brooks, that was a sign
of we need to start playing more serious basketball, Like
we need to get a couple guys in here who
(18:49):
can be tone setters, can get get us organized, get
us in a good place. And there are a lot
of people at the time where like, why are they
signing these guys? This team is so far away. It's
awesome to have the timeline aligned to all these guys.
A couple of challenges with that. One is you're probably
gonna be really bad, and who's teaching them how to play?
(19:10):
And then if we keep it strictly to the cap sheet,
if they all pop or good amount of them do,
it's gonna be really hard to pay everybody. Then what
do you do? Then you're gonna start getting a spot
And what is the first thing we go to with
a really young team when it's like, man, I feel
like they should be a little better. How they need
that vet that can kind of lift them and put
them over the top. That's why I don't have a
(19:31):
problem with, Hey, go get that guy a little early.
Maybe go get that guy in a spot where you
feel pretty good about it there. So I'm with you
with the Wizards. I think the Nets have done a
pretty good job of being there. And to your point
about the salary floor used to be under the old
cbas you could go in with twenty thirty forty million
(19:53):
under the cap and be the day hand up team
during every trade all season long, like hey, will help,
will help, will help. Now, if you don't get to
at least the floor when the season starts, you get
a cap hole put on the difference and then you
don't get the luxury tax this person from the other team.
So people keep sailing. Maybe the Ne's just sit on
this twenty million cap space not gonna be how it goes.
(20:16):
They're gonna get to the floor. They've already got a
couple of deals lined up to do that anyway that
they'll take care of. But but yeah, but that's that's
one hundred percent there. Yeah, use your cap space. It's
that you know, you know, because you see I posted
on social media. I posted in some of the chats
we're together where you know, don't make me tap to sign.
Cap space can be used on more than just signing
(20:38):
free agents, right, But that's part of it. That's where, yeah,
I think a team like the Wizards, I have so
much like enthusiasm for that team in the way they're
doing things. And the even more important and better thing
is I've talked to so many Wizards fans that are like,
I am so much more interested in this than the
(20:58):
decades of let's be a playoff team that we were before.
They're like, I'm committed to these kids. I mean, hey,
we stink, we get it, but I'm committed to watching them.
And that's where are you. You have to watch for
the day to day improvement, right, Like, oh, this guy
didn't run into a charge there, right, Like he actually
took a hesitation dribble and held up. Hey, that passed.
(21:21):
He wouldn't even see that pass two months ago. Now
he's at least trying to make the pass. And in
those little things, you take, those small wins, those are
your victories versus the young court ones.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
I mean, I've already painted myself totally into the corner
with the Wizards, because two days before Cam Whitmore got
traded there on a Danish podcast, we were talking about
the Wizards and I actually said again, two days before
the trade, I said, if they go out and get
a guy like Cam Whitmore, that would be one of
those like smart Yeah, But the thing is I then
(21:55):
I turned dumb Keith because I said, if Cam Whitmore
comes to the Wizards, he'll average twenty right off the
bat and amp. So now I'm on the hook, sir,
I'm on the hook. My dumb ass is absolutely on
the hook because the Wistars the Whiskers have listened. But
that I think, I think that's also smart from the
rebuilding teams because you know, getting guys in while they're
(22:17):
still in their rookie deals. I think that is also
going to be one of those a little bit underrated
acquisition patterns that we're going to be seeing, you know,
guys who may not be utilized a whole lot on
different teams where you can kind of see there's a
bit of a roster squeeze, like how much do the
Wistards give up? They gave up two seconds for Cam,
and I think then they got a second back in
(22:37):
a follow up deal a couple days later, so basically
they gave up virtually nothing. I mean, that's just whatever
he gives you. It's cream, Like, it's just such a
smart gamble. Even if he doesn't score twenty three points
per game, if he just becomes a rotation player who
can give you twenty quality minutes every single night for
a couple seconds, sign me the hell up for that.
Speaker 2 (23:01):
Yeah, I'm with you on that one. I like when
yeah take shots right Like. I think that was the
the thing with the Nets, uh first rebuild that they did,
not necessarily the current one, because that's where we're still
in the very early stages. But that first rebuild was
I like to call it Sean Marks did the diamond
mining process. Yeah, I'm gonna go in. I'm gonna rotate
(23:24):
through the bottom of that roster turn and then hey,
Joe Harris actually popped for US. Hey, Spencer Dimwitdy popped
for US. Two guys who looked like they run their
way out of the league. And then next thing, you know,
those guys are getting really nice contracts, hung around in
the league for probably an extra five ish years. I
know Harris retired Dimwood, he's still going, but those are
(23:45):
you can do it that way or like the Wizards, Hey,
we got a J. Johnson on the Chris Middleton trade.
I don't know if a J. Johnson's gonna be good
or not. I have no idea, but why not, right,
let's find out if he is. We still got him
for a couple of years on his rookie deal before
then we need to make another decision with that. Oklahoma
City get to the point where they had so many guys,
(24:06):
whether it's through trades or draft picks, they just start
to straight waving guys. Now that's where it can get
a little sideways. You want to be a little conscious
of all right, how many picks is too many picks?
But I think now what you've seen Presty do is
get really aggressive. Where we want this guy, We're gonna
trade up for him. We're gonna give up a bunch
of pare Oh you need five seconds for us to
(24:28):
move up, great, here you go, because we can do that.
I'm with that, and then the other one too, because
I'll add this. I think it's gonna start being slightly
more common where it is we really like the player
and something has not fit with their new team the
(24:51):
way we think it should have and not a we
don't really know, but it's like we know this guy
is good. Now, I think you're gonna see teams try
to acquire those guys before the end of their rookie
deal so that if they pop later, they can still
give them the designated player language down the line, because
teams don't want to run into the situation like the
(25:13):
Lakers did with Luca, where we can't even give them
the designated player deal. So the best we can do
is now this shorter extension. He can opt out when
he gets to ten years of experience. Which, as an aside,
how the heck are we already talking about Luca even
being close to ten years of experience? Because I remember
you and I talking about him as a draft prospect.
(25:34):
You know that, you know how far back that goes.
But anyway, now we're in a spall with like where
are we going with him? You know, like like that
that's where now it's gonna take you. You're gonna have
to do a lot of we think it's gonna matter.
Things are gonna have to have gone sideways within those
first four years. But I do think you're gonna see
(25:55):
teams put a priority on we want to get these
guys a little earlier, just so we have that harrow
in the quiver to to have if we need it
down the line.
Speaker 1 (26:07):
We're gonna take a short commercial break, but before we do,
I just want to remind you it's now eight years
ago when luke Ha won gold at EuroBasket. I know
you'll remember that because that was before. That's eight years ago.
Time mo, time moves quickly, man, Yes, all right, Keith,
I do have another question for you. So you you
(26:30):
and I've talked about this before because you know me
pretty well. You know this is a big pet peeve
of mine, the veteran extension limit. It was raised from
one hundred and twenty one and forty percent in this
new CBA. We're still seeing a lot of players who
are basically unable, for lack of a better word, to
(26:52):
sign an extension because it would just be so perversely
below their market Kobe White, Austin Breeves, just to name
a few here. Is that going to be a problem
moving forward because I would assume that NBA teams now
that they know, oh, it's so important that we actually
hang on to our guys. It's so important that we
get structure on our cap sheet. It's so important that
(27:13):
we have a sense of control of our cap sheet,
they would like to also be able to extend their
own guys, Like I still believe that NBA teams who
do well on these contract negotiations and lo and behold.
You know, I've criticized the Bulls plenty, but they did
objectively a good job on the Kobe White contract back then.
(27:34):
Three years for six million. That is quality negotiation for
a team. And now that team and plenty of others
are now getting penalized because well, hell, we can't exceed
the one hundred and forty percent extension limit. Like could
you see a world where it seems might cause a
fuss eventually, just in terms of like we're trying to
(27:55):
retain our own players, especially under this CBA, but we're
being completely handcuff and can't do it.
Speaker 2 (28:01):
Yeah, I think, I mean you and I, like you said,
we've talked about this. I don't think they fixed the
veteran extension rules enough. I think they're certainly way better
than they were, but it's definitely not near where it
needs to be. And what I've gotten very fond of
saying is, and I tell people, if you ever hear
me say what a great contract that is for the team,
(28:25):
feel free to say, let's check in in three or
four years what that contract looks like later because in
the case of Kobe White, now it's basically not extendable
because Kobe White has far out played the contract. Still
a great value for the Bulls. But now the question
comes in, is, so you had Kobe White on a
(28:45):
great value contract for four years? Actually think kids, it
was a three year deal. Three years, but three years.
What did you do while you had him on that?
You didn't do anything with it? So that's so now
what was great? You just didn't pay him more, and
now you can't. And now he's going to be in
free agency in a summer when there's gonna be somewhere
(29:06):
between let's say five and ten teams with cap space,
including a hindful of teams that are going to be
pretty good and probably could use the Kobe White to
put them over the top. And now now you're going
to be faced with what do we do? How do
we get this done? So that's where yeah, I'm with you,
and and teams are already I think you're going to
(29:27):
see it be there's a push pull, if I can
put it that way, where some teams are like, man,
I'd like to be able to pay these guys more.
There are teams that are let us just pay guys
right up to their max on any extension, right out
of the gate.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
Right.
Speaker 2 (29:43):
Then there are other teams that are like, yeah, but
if we blow it, then you know where do we go?
And it's in a lot of the CBA roles are
they're honestly to protect teams read that as owners front offices, however,
but to protect them from themselves. The second aprons were
(30:04):
not created because every single team was like, let's like
make it harder to do deals and all these things.
And what people forget is some of the teams that
have been hurt the most were in full favor of
the second apron restrictions because it was like, and people
(30:24):
can't see me here, but they're like putting their hands out,
like please put the handcuffs on me, right right, like
handcuff me. So I can't have this team that costs me,
you know, half a billion dollars in salary plus tax penalties,
Like please, yo, yo, restrict me in a way where
I have to, you know, make real roster decisions. And
(30:44):
that's where it's gonna be hard, because you're definitely right now, yeah,
I'm sure the bulls to some extent wish like, man,
I wish we could pay Kobe White thirty million in
first year's salary, which is very likely where he's gonna
be probably somewhere in that r if not even higher.
You know, he could push thirty five to nearly forty,
(31:05):
which has got to be a mag close to a
max deal for him at that point. So like that's
where that could be how that goes. But but yeah,
it's there's definitely teams that are chirping about that a
little bit of we should have gone a little further
with this, and and to some extent, I think I
think they're right, and I think you could put some
guardrails on it where you do it almost like, hey,
(31:28):
if they are designated eligible minus the qualifiers, meaning we've
had them for since they were on their rookie scale
deal and they've got seven years of experience or whatever,
we should be able to pay them, you know, up
to that amount and an extension, because sometimes it is
why do we make a guy wait an additional six
(31:51):
months to get paid what a team wanted to pay
them in December? Yeah, you know, but we have to
wait until their contract expires. It's a little weird. To
me there because who, like, who really wins in that situation?
I guess, yeah, yeah, no, no, that that's probably not good.
But I also get it because heck, I like free
(32:11):
agency and trades too, so I get you know where
there's you know, there's the tug in that direction.
Speaker 1 (32:17):
Also, I just think it's interesting because it also hurts
those players as a trade assets obviously, Like, for example,
if they have the Bulls that decided to pivot off
Kobe earlier, it seemed that would be looking at a
tax bill for example, would surely have appreciated a guy
who can play starting caliber basketball for under thirty million
(32:38):
a year. So obviously the Bulls didn't react to the market.
But and that is certainly a fault of them. I
just I find it difficult to swallow that when teams
actually do well, they get they get penalized, and it's
completely without their control.
Speaker 2 (32:56):
On the flip side, I do want like and again
it's this is one where it helps both sides. I
want the players to be able to if they outplay
the contract, get paid without having a weight like and
that's again that's where we're at with Kobe White as
a good example. Here we're gonna have to wait on
him now getting paid because you know his other contract
(33:19):
came in two team friendly if.
Speaker 1 (33:21):
You will, Right, So I have one final question and
or a topic rather than I want to broach here
because we've seen how the value of an expiring contract
over the history of the past, like twenty years, that's
been on a roller coaster ride. Like there was a
period where the expiring contract, the large expiring contract was
(33:44):
worth its weight in gold. All of a sudden it
pivoted to being virtually, you know, without any value whatsoever.
Now because of the restrictions, it seems like we're heading
back to that to some extent where it may not
be worth its weight gold, but it is valuable because
it does give you some leeway financially moving forward. It
(34:05):
does save you a certain certain headaches. Where do you
see like the value evaluation of say a twenty million
dollar expiring contract, just to you know, use an example.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Yeah, I think it, as with anything, it depends on
who it's attached to. Right. If if it's a guy
who can play, and you have you have the ability
to absorb that contract, which most teams can, that's really good, right,
because now we're getting a guy in a good spot. Now,
(34:40):
if it's a guy who can play in his next
contract is going to come in between twenty five million
and twenty eight million in the next first year of
the next deal, great, we're fine because we can probably
extend him at pretty close to his number, or we
can You'll feel pretty good. If it's a who's on
a twenty million dollar deal and his next deal is
(35:02):
going to be a max, now that becomes right, where
are we going next? And I think kind of the
overarching point here is you can make short term decisions
in the NBA, and you always will have teams that
will do that. And I am a big, big proponent
of if you're close, go for it. It is really
(35:25):
really hard to win an NBA championship, and when you
are close, you owe it to your team, your players,
you're like everybody involved with the team and the fans
to go for it and try to win the title.
This idea of well, let's not go for it in
cashing these assets, because I'd rather be, you know, a
title contender for the next decade. One nobody's a title
(35:48):
contender for that long other than the Dynasty Warriors, who
you'll manage to drag that out. The thunder are not
going to be I feel very confident in saying they're
not going to be this same thing nine more years
of this, Like, something will happen. Somebody will want their
own team, somebody will get injured, somebody will just decide,
(36:10):
you know what, We've won a couple titles. I want
to see what I can do here. I want to
play you at home, whatever it may be.
Speaker 1 (36:16):
And she will.
Speaker 2 (36:19):
Yeah, that's exactly. Guys will age out, they will run
into potentially we are now too expensive with some core
guys and you know where we're gonna go. We can't
add the necessary depth around, but so go for it.
But that's where, like, I think that's kind of the
perfect type of contract to if we feel like that
(36:41):
guy will put us over the top, let's go for it,
because if it doesn't work out, we're not other than
whatever we traded. And when I say go that, you're
not necessarily saying, hey, here's five first for that guy.
You might be like, here's a first and a protected
first or whatever. So we feel like that guy pushed
over the top, no issue with that at all, because
(37:03):
that could be the difference between actually getting there and
then not getting there, and again the goal is get
there right like that should be. The goal is is
to to win. I'm not saying for every team every
year their goal is to win the championship, because we
talked about the Wizards. We're both perfectly happy with where
(37:24):
the Wizards are at. The Wizard's goal this year is
not to win the championship. The Wizard's goal is to
win the championship at some point. Yeah, you know, you
would hope. Yeah, we could argue some teams are my
goal is to make enough money that I am profitable
at the end of the year and whatever. If that's
where it is, that's fine. But you know, in theory,
the goal should be to win a championship and that's
(37:47):
where we go. So, yeah, so I'm with you or
I'm I guess I'm kind of answering your question by saying,
I'm with the idea of, yeah, go out and get
a guy like that if that's where you can go,
because that, you know, should be extendable. You have a
lot of optionality at the end of that contract and
if it doesn't work out, or even if you win
(38:07):
and then the guy moves on, well, we still want
a title that you still got to where we wanted
to go. And and I think at the end that
that's that that's okay.
Speaker 1 (38:17):
Yeah, And and see I was thinking of the expiring
contract more along the lines of, you know, using it
as an asset during the summertime. Like let's say it's no, no,
but like it's it's still perfectly reasonable answer because but
it's interesting right like now with the restricted uh well,
with the CBA being more restrictive and the aprons and
(38:39):
all this. I it's like, I don't think there's one
size fit all answer to you know, how much a
team might relinquish to get off of like long term
money to get a guy like but but that's it
seems like that's now being baked into a little more.
Like even Phoenix, who are like, yeah, we're just gonna
pay everything. It's gonna be fine, And even they are like, hey,
(39:01):
so though there are a couple expiring contracts that'll look interesting,
like we can suddenly see the value in that. It's
it feels like it's coming around to the point where
if you do have a large expiring you can actually
go into a summer to some extent expect to get
something good out of it.
Speaker 2 (39:20):
Yeah, without a doubt. I mean, I think a good example,
and I think they played it right again, I'm gonna
go back to Washington. I think they've played it right
with Middleton and McCollum where they're gonna hang on to
them obviously for now to start the season barring some
something very unexpected. So now you keep those guys, let
(39:41):
them play. Okay, then because it's an expiring those are
good example. They're a little more than twenty million, but
they're thirty bank almost thirty one and like thirty three million,
So like, those are two guys where those numbers you
can move them. I think they're both extention eligible too.
So if I'm the acquiring team, I'm not gonna pay
(40:02):
him thirty plus million in their next deal. But if
it's like, man, Chris Middleton, what a great fit. He was,
helped us get over the top to whatever over the
top is. But we move, we moved into a different level.
I think then what you do is you say we
can pay Chris Middleton twenty like that's fine, right, and
we move forward that way. And that's where I think
(40:24):
those are the things that are kind of really smart
decisions for teams where it is. Yeah, let's give ourselves
a little bit of optionality here, and then if you're
the Wizards, if nobody trades for him, you know what
they expire. They come off our books. And now look
at us sitting on eighty million dollars in cap space,
and we're gonna go after the next couple or contracts
(40:44):
because very doubtful they're gonna be ready to push into
winning yet. Right, But another I think really good example.
Now this will probably be one that will cause our
mutual buddy Brian to pull his hair out. But Tobias
Rris's contract, Yeah, perfectly fine, right, twenty six point six
(41:04):
million dollar expiring deal. Great for the Pistons. You have
all kinds of things you can do with that. Tobias
Harris can play so great if he sees that out
with the Pistons. Fine, that's he's not extendable because he
only signed a two year deal, but you could resign
him next year if you need to, or he can
be a part of a trade package that gives you
(41:27):
a Right, this guy's an improvement in a longer term,
better fit with Kate Cunningham and the rest of our
young crew, and we move forward. So those I Yeah,
that's why I think I think the key here is
going to be in less you are dead certain that
this guy is worth a four or five year max deal.
(41:51):
You have to keep these contracts shorter because rarely is
a one or two year contract going to put you
in such a bad place that you are gonna be like,
oh no, we ruined everything. Let's say the Harris signing
for Detroit was a complete mess, and let's say it
was like, man, this guy, he just can't play at
(42:11):
all anymore. He's one of the actively one of the
bottom ten players in the league. Okay, it was two years,
so who cares. You can still attach that salary with
a pick and another salary and go get another guy
that can play and make it work. Because at some point, yeah,
I mean at some point, I don't like to think
of players like this, but at some point in a
(42:31):
trade discussion, their salary number and you just kind of
kind of move forward that way. So yeah, I think
we're in a spot where those are gonna be the
new the kind of new norm. The long term deals
are either gonna be holy cow, what an incredible steal.
We get this guy ten million a year for four
or five years, or it's gonna be all right, those
(42:52):
are reserved for max guys and everybody else is gonna
be somewhere between a one in three year, but probably
a three year with like a team option on the
last year and some form of team control. Because that's
you Teams are going to have to start thinking a
little bit shorter term with some of this stuff, because
it's going to come out these teams quickly with man,
now we're an apron team. What are we going to do?
(43:13):
And that's where the Thunder played it correct, right to
circle all the way back to them from the beginning
of our conversation. Here the Thunder new the year it
all kicks in. SGA's got his big deal, Home Grin
Jalen Williams all get their big contracts. Guess what, Isaiah
Hardenstein's got a team option. So they played it absolutely correct.
(43:35):
Of great, we overpaid him in the first couple of
years because you know, it didn't matter who cares now
work I mean obviously who cares now worked out? Awesome,
they're the champs. But but you overpay a guy because
you can, then then you get the team control. Would
it shock anybody. If Isaiah Hartenstein says, I love it here.
You know what, They gave me thirty million when I
(43:56):
probably should have got twenty. Yeah, so I'll give ten
million off my next deal and I should probably get
twenty five. I'll take fifteen to stay here where I'm
happy because I got you know, thirty over the last
couple of years. Like that. That stuff happens all the time.
So it's just you know, I mean, they as much
as they don't think this will last forever, they really
(44:17):
have set themselves up to make it last for a
good long time.
Speaker 1 (44:21):
Keith Smith, thank you so much for joining the show
and just breaking down all the complicated salary stuff that
is in and around the NBA. As per usual, Tell
the good people where they can find your work, sir.
Speaker 2 (44:34):
Yeah, you can, fine if you're interested in this kind
of stuff. Spot track is where all my written work
is primarily living. Now. I'm in the middle of doing
kind of our next contract series, which is looking at
a lot of the stuff we talked about here. There
will be a Kobe White one that comes out eventually.
Kevin Durant went up last week, Trey Young will go
(44:55):
up this week, So it's just discussing, Hey, what can
these guys and then in the end, I kind of
this is what I think they should do. Being spoiler
sometimes like with Kobe White, it's gonna be they should
do nothing because they can't right now. But in free agency,
here's what we should probably do this summer. So so
it'll be a lot of those uh work coming out
(45:18):
here over the next uh several weeks in the off
season and then if you like this type of discussion, contracts,
roster stuff. NBA Front Off Show with Trevor Lane and I.
We're in the off season, so we're kind of like
three ish times a week right now, but we'll get
back to when the season gets closer, back to our
five days a week and and all that. But we
(45:40):
break down all the latest all around the league and
getting a lot of stuff, and in the off season
a lot of silly stuff too sometimes the uh where
we get in more movie discussions and other stuff and
we'll get a little sidetracked. And every Friday is a
live show for the fans. It's it's your show to program,
ask whatever questions you want and we have a lot
of fun with.
Speaker 1 (45:59):
That every Friday. Nice. Yeah, I can only look. Spot
Track is one of the tools that I use every
single day. I can vouch from it from here. It's
it's invaluable if you cover the NBA. So if you're
out there you want to look at salary stuff and
then analysis and like how much a team is into
the tax or the apron. Spot Track definitely has you
(46:22):
covered there. For everyone listening in, thank you for doing so,
and until we speak again, stay safe everyone,