Bitcoin Critical Level📉Technical Analysis w/ Tim Warren Trades‬

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bitcoin running up to an all time high today. We'll
break it down for you and what the market is doing.
I've got Tim Warren coming in on the show. It's
going to be a good room. My name's Paul Barre.
Welcome back in. Let's get go in and do want
to think our sponsor and that is salt Lending. If
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(00:21):
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(00:43):
thousand and bitcoin and you take a loan for five k,
you know that bitcoin is not going to retrace that much.

Speaker 2 (00:48):
So that's the point that I think you should look at.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
Right there, get over to salt lending dot com and
of course, you guys can use our link down below.
It does help us out and get started.

Speaker 3 (00:59):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:00):
I also want to bring in Tim Warren today. If
you guys have not checked out Tim's channel, Welcome in, Tim.

Speaker 2 (01:04):
How are you doing good?

Speaker 3 (01:06):
Paul, glad to be here, Glad to be back on
the show.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
Hey, this is going to be a crazy show because
we're going to look at bitcoin e We've got a
couple of all coins for you, and then we'll take
a look over the market's heading. Check out Tim Warren
over on YouTube. It it's now Tim Warren Trades. Of course,
you guys can go over there and subscribe right now.
A lot happened you explain, explain the crash. We're going
to break into that very topic right now, Tim, What

(01:29):
do you think happened yesterday after bitcoin hits it's all
time high?

Speaker 3 (01:33):
Yeah, I mean cheat sheet. You guys go watch the
video as well. But I'll give you the bullet points
of what I said. There's four reasons that we had
to pull back here today, and I went with the
word crash. You know, YouTube loves the word crash. People
love the word crash. I want you to know in
the video, I say this really isn't a crash, it's
a correction. But four reasons. We had economic data coming
out telling us that PPI was hotter than expected. At

(01:54):
the same time, the second reason is that we had
unemployment numbers actually show that unemployment's not really a problem.
The jobless numbers beat expectations. Then there was a report
that's kind of going viral right now where Scott Bessett
was on Fox and he said the words we're not
gonna buy that in reference to bitcoin.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Bitcoin.

Speaker 3 (02:13):
People are freaking out about that expression. All those things
I don't think are that scary. I think the real
reason we're pulling back, I think those are convenient excuses.
The ultimate reason we're pulling back is a lot of
these coins we're hitting some resistance. Bitcoin, as Paul said,
hit a new all time high. A lot of other
coins we've been tracking some weekly smart trails for months
now that a lot of all coins have actually just

(02:33):
touched those weekly smart trails. So corrections or consolidation is
the norm. But people are gonna freak out. You're gonna
hear bears come out of the woodwork saying the top
is in the reality is I think it's very far
from over. This was an expected correction slash, a little
bit of a stopping point more the next leg up.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Yeah, I think bess In's statement where bitcoin is not
going into the structured side of the treasury. Remember that
this has always been a situation where Besson has said
we need to be budget neutral. In other words, we're
not going out and spending the American dollars. Now, if
we get bitcoin in the treasury through you know, seizures
and you know other forms fines, et cetera, that's a

(03:14):
way to build strategic investment I think around these assets.
So that I think was even though it was a
little bit of a bomb in the in you know,
the pool. Yeah, in terms of bitcoin, what.

Speaker 3 (03:27):
About I think we also got to throw the N
word out there a little bit. Yeah, the emword being manipulation.
I mean you think that Scott Besson isn't smart enough
to know that him saying the words we're not going
to buy that is not going to bring a dip
to the markets. I think there's a little bit of
cat and mouse happening. I think this was a planned correction.
I think there's a lot of whales who want to

(03:47):
buy and they just didn't want to buy all time
high prices. I think that this is going to be
another confusion, weed out some weak, hanned individuals, and then
before you know it, we're at new all time highs again,
all coin season flourishing. We're talking more about that here
in a second.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
Yeah, it's crazy, and you not only that, you look
at the fud that's starting to happen outside of just
the bitcoin side of things.

Speaker 2 (04:08):
Right here, this was of course all about Google Play.

Speaker 1 (04:11):
Everybody was retweeting this because it was talking about self
custody wallets that we're going to be needing a license,
and of course Google came in and said, no, that's
not the case, guys, it's not the case. They're out
of scope. It's still the normal procedure. But I think
the point is is that you guys, and you guys
know this out there if you're watching our show, always

(04:32):
double check everything. Never believe the first piece, go out
verify it. That's the way to play it in any market,
much like less the crypto market. I think this is
a factor you guys should be doing all the time.
Bitcoin dominance, we got to talk about this six month low.
If you look at the bitcoin dominance chart right now, Tim,

(04:53):
is this the point that everybody's been talking about. Let
me kind of squeeze that down a little bit. It's
hovering right around fifty nine. It's under that sixty percent.
If it breaks through on this, what happens?

Speaker 2 (05:04):
What happens?

Speaker 3 (05:06):
Yeah, Well, there's two targets that I would be watching
for for a breakout. First of all, I see the
charts you have drawn there at interesting support level. I
don't actually don't have that one on my screen, but
I think it looks, you know, it looks checks out
that yellow line down there. Let me show you what
I have in terms of action on the charts for
bitcoin dominance. Go over to my screen. There's a target
we've been talking about now for a couple of weeks. Again,

(05:28):
I think I've said it on this channel. I don't
usually hide a lot of my takes from when I
come on with you, Paul, So I think i've said
this before. We got a short term target at fifty
eight percent. Here. What that's coming from? It's actually two
different things. Number One, you have the rising wedge pattern
that broke Barishley way back here over in July that
has a target down here towards that fifty eight percent.

(05:49):
But the newer one, the newer one on the block
is simply this explosive leg down right here, Oop, grab
the wrong line. Now on we guard the correct one.
This explosive move down here before a consolidation called a
bit flag. This then has a breakout target down here
towards fifty eight percent. That is my short term target.
We are definitely on our way there. I was telling

(06:09):
our community the other day, this is such a great
look if you're an all coin holder, if you love
your alt coins and you're waiting in anticipation for all
coin season. This is the first time since the bottom
of bitcoin dominance way back here in twenty twenty two
September twenty poinet two, we have not had a lower
high and a lower low since twenty twenty two. Guess

(06:30):
what we put in right here. Not only again with
this lower high we set in August, we have now
two consecutive lower lows. This is a very good sign
about bitcoin dominance continuing down. Fifty eight percent is my
first target. After that, I think it's going to be
pretty likely that bitcoin dominance will end up at the
end of this bull market somewhere between fifty to forty

(06:51):
five percent. We've actually seen bitcoin dominance trending up during
every cycle. You go back to twenty seventeen, we made
all the way down to thirty five percent, but in
twenty twenty one we only made it to about forty.
So I'm expecting another higher low here Summarten. Forty five
and fifty is my expectation for bitcoin dominance. But everything
right now is heading in the right direction for all
coins to still steal the show and enter the true

(07:14):
all coin season.

Speaker 1 (07:15):
Well, and you look at stable coin dominance right here,
this is an amazing move up. So that could have
been the signal that we were in right there, we're
on the hourly chart. That could be the signal right
there where people took the top, went into stable coins
and are now setting on the sidelines waiting to make
their move strategically into a lot of all coins and

(07:36):
other assets out there.

Speaker 2 (07:37):
With that.

Speaker 3 (07:37):
Well, I'll do you. I'll do you one better if
you look more macro on that real quickly on the
usdcause you show the hour chart. Yeah, today we're getting
a little bit of a pump there. Take a look
what's happening on the more macro perspective, This right here,
I people aren't familiar is called an inverse W pattern. Yeah,
very very bearish formation for this chart. But as you
mentioned USDT domins, we actually want to see this all

(08:00):
We could see USDT collapse here. We'll take you sometimes
take the more aggressive one. We'll go with the lower
one just for conservative estimations. But we start to see
this move pick up again for all coins. We can
see USDT dominance back down to two point three percent
levels we haven't seen since April of twenty twenty one. Wow,
So that would be a very very good sign for
the markets. What does that mean to me? People are

(08:21):
using their USDT and they're going and buying some all
coins exactly.

Speaker 2 (08:24):
Well, you've got to activate it, you know.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
That's the key there when you do see that, and
of course activating it. The question is where eth is
five percent away?

Speaker 2 (08:32):
Right now?

Speaker 1 (08:33):
We're trading close on it. And it was interesting because
we had Bitcoin kind of steal the show on getting
another all time high before Ethereum on this one, because
I think a lot of people would have wagered Ethereum
might hit it first. What is your position right now
on on Ethereum at least in the short term over
the month of August.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Where do you feel like we play.

Speaker 3 (08:53):
You know, eth is definitely correcting here today, but nowhere
close to like what Bitcoin is doing. If I show
that art, Yeah, we we came within, you know, very
very close levels. You know, the all time high, former
all time high is sitting here around forty eight hundred
and sixty nine. We made it yesterday up here on
almost forty eight hundred, so we're we got within one
hundred dollars of all time high. And yes there's a

(09:15):
little correction here, but ultimately Ethereum just kind of holding
up very nicely. I told you. You know, people are saying,
why were we rejecting? You go out to the weekly chart.
We were running into the weekly cloud. You're not gonna
just blast through this with nothing. I'm not surprised whatsoever
Ethereum is correcting here. But I see this more as
a consolidation below the all time high more so than

(09:36):
a rejection. I don't think this is a macro double top.
I think this is a very very common thing in crypto.
You hit the former all time high, you have a
little consolidation. Do I think it's gonna take weeks and
weeks and weeks. No, I think that we could have
we could have a new all time high this weekend.
We also gonna have to wait a week and a
half either way, though, I do not see a massive
pullback on ethereum coming. You know, I'll save some time.

(09:58):
We'll probably look at some other all coins as well.
If you're asking me how far back could this pullback be?
I have my eyes right now around the six and
eight hour charts where you see these pretty large bubbles
of potential cell signals coming in on Luxago's oscillator. If
the red reversal barishalm metam and then that big bubble
of money flow that could pop. So what does that
mean for ethereum? Theorem could make its way all the

(10:18):
way back down towards forty two Yeah, forty two hundred,
give or take. Before it's said and done. I'm not
guaranteeing we have to go down that far, but that's
a reasonable retracement for eth. But just to put that
into perspective, if you go back over here to the
last high or low back on August second, and you
use a Fibonacci tool, this very mild pullback we're talking

(10:40):
about to pull back to the point three to eight
to two level. That is so bullish. The reality is
even if we came back to thirty eight hundred, we
would still be bullish with Fibonacci retracement tools there, So
eth I'm still very bullish on it. We hit some resistance,
we are getting close that all time high. It's very
normal to have these consolidating periods, slights, l off the weekends,

(11:01):
take profit thinking bull markets over the whales, take advantage
by the dip, and then all of a sudden, we're
talking about a seventy five hundred and ten thousand dollars
THEEUM later this year.

Speaker 1 (11:09):
So let me ask you this, tim If you look
at bitcoin and it's twenty twenty four high and the
comparison of how it retraced, and then look at where
we are right now with ethereum, how do you think
it's going to behave if it hits its all When
it hits its all time high, do you think we're
going to see a market correction similar to what we've
seen before?

Speaker 3 (11:29):
Yeah? So what happened back in twenty twenty four when
bitcoin broke new all time highs but then very quickly
had a thirty something percent correction over the rest of
the summer. I don't think that's something to look at
and say we're going to repeat that method. First of all,
that end and of itself was a very weird situation
that had never been done before. And what I mean
by that is Bitcoin reaching a new all time high

(11:50):
before the having of the having year that had never happened. Ultimately,
what you could really chalk up twenty twenty four is
due to the ETF excitement, Bitcoin blasted all off a
lot faster and a lot stronger than anyone thought it should.
And for that reason, when you have an over bought situation,
then you pair it with some confusion. In the summer
of twenty twenty four, we kind of were going back

(12:11):
and forth between what would the future of our country
look like? Are we heading for a recession? Are we
not heading for a recession. I think a lot of
outside factors came in and went into that thirty something
percent correction for bitcoin. Ethereum I think is going to
play a completely different role now that it's testing its
all time highs let me show on the chart. I
think a better example would be, let's go back and
look at when Ethereum broke new all time highs back

(12:32):
in the end of twenty twenty early twenty twenty one.
So you have this high back in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen,
when ETH reached fourteen hundred dollars and fifty fourteen fifty
pretty much what did ETH do as we got up there?
Notice here I'm on the weekly charts, but you're going
to see as we approached this, we had a couple
weeks of what consolidation, meaning we got close at all

(12:54):
time high. It took a couple of weeks, but eventually
we would push through. We went higher, we tested that
former existance as support, and then continued our way up
to the upside. That's what I kind of would expect
to happen on this one. I think that we're running
into it right now. We're seeing a slight bit of consolidation.
I would not be surprised whatsoever to see ETH shoot
up George forty fifty five, fifty six, maybe six thousand,

(13:18):
maybe retest forty eight hundred as a support level, and
then continue its way up to higher highs. I don't
think that their comparison is Bitcoin at twenty twenty four.
I think the more realistic comparison is Ethereum of twenty twenty.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
Okay, all right, I think that's reasonable.

Speaker 1 (13:33):
And I think the other thing that people are kind
of comparing ETH to is how its behavior is because
timing is very critical here. It's likely that we're going
to see we may see even staking in ETFs within
this cycle, and if all of that starts to brew,
and of course the numbers that we've seen around treasury companies,
all the positive nature around stable coins, all that very
positive for ETH. Let's go over to Solana real quick

(13:55):
hitting two ten and this is a big deal Solana.
Of course, is at time now now for Solana? Or
is this a panic buy? Now that we've got a
retrace on Solana, is this the time to maybe say, hey,
Solana is heating up here?

Speaker 2 (14:07):
Is there an opportunity?

Speaker 3 (14:09):
Yeah? I mean you got that new updates. I can't
remember what company it was, but you probably have it
on your head and I don't know if you had
to bring that up, but new ETF filings for SOLANAE.
Solana was actually a coin. It didn't make my list,
but it should have. I had a list. In yesterday's
live show we did where I talked about eight coins
that had exploded the last couple of weeks, right, done
very very well, clearly showing they have strengthens bullmarket. But

(14:31):
at another eight coin, eight coins that I thought, hey,
these are still interesting coins to watch because their fundamentals
are so strong, but they've kind of not performed well
in last week and some change. And Solana was right
there on the cuffs of making my list. It didn't
make it, but what we had after I made the
show yesterday, we had a Solana emergence. One of the
things that I was looking for is a higher high. Again.

(14:53):
I wanted to see coins put in a local higher high,
and the more recent high that we're talking about is
back at the end of July. Well, last night Solana
ended up doing that. We ended up breaking that two
hundred and six resistance level. We went higher there again.
Corrections are coming in. That's completely fine, not a big
deal whatsoever. But I treat this whole situation right now

(15:13):
as we are seeing these pullbacks as a great opportunity.
And like I said, Solana was on the cusp of
making my list of exciting explosive coins that haven't boomed
just yet. In the summer of twenty twenty five with
massive upside potential. You pair that with the concept of
what they just had with the ETF filing, This could
be very, very explosive for them. You will see, this

(15:35):
is one of the coins that is running into that
weekly Smart show right there. So again reason for potential,
some profit taken. But once we clear this barrier, we're
talking about moves all the way up above three hundred
before the next major level of resistance, and of course
that would be taking us to new all time highs.

Speaker 1 (15:52):
Okay, so still a lot of bullishness here for Solana. Obviously,
the Seeker has not been been great in terms of arriving.
It's been very slow trickling out. I've got a tweet
on this right here. People are getting a little bit
upset about the Seeker not arriving. That may have a
little bit of a narrative even.

Speaker 2 (16:10):
Though it's only one hundred and fifty thousand phones.

Speaker 1 (16:12):
Granted, we're talking about a global trading community out there
in the Salona community, so I don't know that it
has a lot of effect, but it does get out
there in social so that's another factor you kind of
have to consider.

Speaker 2 (16:23):
You look at the.

Speaker 1 (16:23):
Market cap of Solana where it is right now, do
you think it has a shot at flipping XRP as
a market cap to become number three?

Speaker 3 (16:34):
I think when you say does it have a shot,
everything has a shot. I think a couple things would
play out there. There's different scenarios in which Solana would
flip XRP. Scenario one is Solana just goes berserk and
maybe even flips ethereum, in which case it has to
flip XORP. On that way, it becomes number one layer
one solution. I think that's what a lot of Solana
holders would love to hear. The other thing, and again,

(16:54):
I don't think this is going to happen, but is
does XRP have a little bit of a flop? You know,
does some of xrps can petitors come in and maybe
steal some shine and all of a sudden Solana jumps it.
In terms of not that XRP is performing that well,
it actually starts to fall and Solana is just doing
its normal thing and growing, that absolutely is on the table.
I'm not gonna bet on that. I think that XRP

(17:15):
is gonna probably maintain that number three spot. I know
in recent days. You guys know, my beloved Shane Link
has been performing well and people are all over the
internet chain Link is gonna steal attention and stuff away
from XRP. I don't think that's gonna happen either. I
think XRP has a very, very bright future, as does Solana.
XRP just has such a great head start, and I

(17:36):
think if I'm a betting man right now, I'm gonna
invest in both. I think my ROI on Solana is
still greater than my ROI from here and out on XRP.
But I'm not gonna make a prediction that Solana flips
it just yet. That could change the next couple of
months as things develop. If any bad news comes out
for XRP, that's absolutely on the table. But right now,
XRP is strong, Solana is doing well. I think they

(17:57):
keep their current rankings moving forward.

Speaker 2 (17:59):
Yeah. Well, the issue is with XRP.

Speaker 1 (18:02):
I still believe is the ETF is going to be
much more well received in the community, especially in structured
capital that I think will accelerate it. We may see
one of the biggest ETFs out there with the launch
of an XRP ETF, and that's just around the corner.
It's very possible because it happened as early as September,
so lot definitely on the plate right here. I want

(18:24):
to go over to an either or, well maybe not
either or, but how would you play these two tokens?
One of course is Optimism and then also Arbitram. Okay,
when you're looking at Optimism and Arbitram, both these are potentials.

Speaker 2 (18:39):
How would you play these?

Speaker 1 (18:40):
Would you play in both as investments right now or differently?

Speaker 3 (18:44):
I think that's a very interesting question because you asking
me specifically Arbitrum or Optimism. I want to be honest,
not that I think these coins can't make people money.
I'm not investing in either one of those. I actually
see the biggest one of them all being Option C
and that's Aerodrome. Yeah. So I put a video out
the other day about Aerodrome, and in it, I don't
go crazy into the fundamentals, but what we talk about

(19:06):
in that video is the number one, layer two solution
for Ethereum is Base. But Base isn't a token. Base
of course is a part of coin Base. You can
go buy the stock, but if you're looking for a
cryptocurrency to benefit from Base protocol, there's none out there
more benefited than Eer, which is the number one decks
on the platform. So going into the aerodrome charge, there's

(19:26):
actually a lot of bullish things going on here on
a longer time frame. First of all, you got a
W pattern in play here, slightly slanted, but just like
I talked about the inverted W pattern a little bit
ago with a different coin, I think we were looking
at the tether dominance, this one again more extreme version.
You would look at this volatility and say a breakout
of this W pattern would lead for a breakout all

(19:47):
the way up here towards seventeen dollars. You also, though,
could take a look at a longer timeframe movement here
and discuss the potential bullflag pattern that is in play here.
Where we did put in lower lows and slightly lower
highs up here, but this attached to an explosive move
much earlier, will be perceived by some as a bullflag
pattern all of a sudden. This one is also predicting

(20:10):
for big prices up here. That is, the actually as
high as the W pattern that one's going to eight dollars.
So short term, these are very bullish formations for Aerodrome.
We are running into some resistance here. Again, if you
were to draw this pattern like this along with the
weekly smart trail, we are bouncing right there and probably
going to have some consolidation. But after that breakout happens,
it's a big, big move to the upside. After that,

(20:32):
you know, you can come in here and we can
look at Fibonacci extension levels, which is what you do
when you look at new all time highs. You know
you have golden pocket around nine dollars. We have some
big moves coming up here towards forty. The reason why
I'm looking up towards forty dollars potentially for Aerodrome comes
from just mathematics. Like I said here second ago, if

(20:53):
we see aerodrome, be as if it was the number
one benefactor from an eight layer two solution, simple math
would say, go back and look at Polygon, the number
one eighth layer two solution. Back in twenty twenty one,
it had roughly a zero point two percent dominance of
a three trillion dollar market cap for cryptocurrency. Let's just
pretend pretend that Aerodrome matches that point two percent. I

(21:17):
think it can go higher and it gets up to
that would put it at a twenty five billion dollar
market cap. Forget the exact math, but that alone is
going to put the price action somewhere in the world
of twenty five to thirty dollars the sometime next year
if that one plays out. And so there's a combination
of yes, there's charts, I'm up trading it, but that's
actually more of a fundamental play for me thinking through, Hey,

(21:38):
if this is this year's polygon, if this does take
over as the number one benefacture of layer two solutions
to a theory in which I still am very bullish on.
That's why I'm kind of saying twenty five to fifty
billion dollar market cap is my expectation for aero.

Speaker 1 (21:53):
All right, So that's very aggressive out there, guys, just
as a reminder, not financial advice, get out there, do
your research. Also track Aerodrome because they have been historically
aggressive on how they all say, Well, they like to
sell some tokens occasionally, so you know, to.

Speaker 2 (22:10):
Be aware of that.

Speaker 1 (22:11):
You guys will understand what I'm talking about if you
go out and do your research on that. Let's get
into avalanche. Another big news right here. Capital markets now
getting ready to move on what is potentially an omni
chain order book. This is an l one network for
tokenis US equities. All is going to be powered by Avalanche.
This is called Donari and if you look at what

(22:33):
is happening with stock X, we're going to see token
is stocks here. The NARI could be a big play
for Avalanche. What's your opinion right now with Avax as
an investment where it's playing.

Speaker 3 (22:44):
Yeah, Avax. When I talked about that list earlier, the
eight coins that I'm watching that could have big explosive moves,
Avax made that list. This one I can show you
on the charts here directly what's going on here. Once again,
you see that W pattern playing out here with a
flat level of resistance. This target. It brings it up
towards that weekly smart trail. Remember a lot of all
coins are testing their weekly smart trails right now. Maybe

(23:05):
consolidating Avax not so lucky. But you know what I say,
that gives me opportunity. There's a bigger upside here. We
still have the buy signals with green reversal's bullshamentum and
positive money flow coming out on the weekly chart. That
W pattern takes us up here around the forty six
dollars range, which coincidentally, let's turn this off and quiet
some noise. Here is the resistance level of a longer

(23:27):
time frame falling channel. That falling channel, if we get
a breakout there, which again the timeline kind of adds
up all of a sudden, then we're looking at a
breakout pattern all the way up to one hundred and
fifty dollars for AVAX. So a lot of moves potentially
still coming for AVAX to the upside. And again it's
a coin that I would put in the camp of
being over sold. A lot of coins might be slightly

(23:48):
over barbered. Now Avax dramatically over sold, but still having
some great headlines, great partnerships that to me equals great opportunity.
Avax still a long way to go to the upside.

Speaker 1 (23:58):
Well, and they may be playing into a narrative that
could shift out beyond the eight run and that is
tocon I stocks. This is why Denari, you know we're
tracking it right here. You've got Dnari versus Swarm even
Wisdom Tree right there. But we've kind of removed some
of the securities there. But this is something that Solana
has been very early on, it's very possible we could

(24:18):
see both Solana and Avalanche start to see that narrative
play out for them around token I stocks. So pay
attention to that, guys as we start to move forward here. Yeah, listen, guys,
this is going to be good because there's a lot
of activity right now in the markets. We're probably going
to see a lot going in the way of all
coins very soon. So we're going to get you on
again with Evan. We did a we did a big

(24:44):
portfolio with Evan, and I want you to give us
some charts on that one the next time we have
you to take a look, give us a double check it.
Eva's a portfolio. Hey, Tim, thanks for coming in today.
We appreciate it absolutely.

Speaker 3 (24:56):
Paul, thanks for having me.

Speaker 1 (24:58):
You bet all right, So guys, make sure if you're
not the Diamond Circle, get in on that right now.
That's our own special group that is absolutely free for
you to join. All you have to do is click
the link down below, and of course catch me out
there on X at Paul Baron. I'll catch you next
time right here on the Paul Baron Show.

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