October 22, 2025 • 38 mins
The winter holidays are just around the corner… and so too could be a chilly crypto crash.
Guest: Paul Sampson, DataDash
Follow on Youtube➜ https://bit.ly/DataDashChannel
00:00 Intro
00:10 Banks want your stablecoin yields
03:20 Uh-oh
03:30 Government Shutdown uncertainty rising
04:20 $120BTC or $100K first?
06:50 Macro factors
10:00 Extreme fear?
12:20 Is Tom Lee wrong?
14:00 Gold rotation to Bitcoin?
18:30 Gold & Bitcoin 2026 outlook
20:30 Solana analysis
22:30 ETH November price prediction?
26:50 Did AVAX underperform this cycle so far?
29:50 BNB analysis
31:50 Market is expensive, rotation to defensives is a good bet
33:20 How to be defensive in crypto
38:00 Outro
#Crypto #bitcoin #etheruem
~Crypto Crash Not Over?📉Technical Analysis w/ @DataDash ~
⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺
Join our community!
Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://bit.ly/pbnmembership
Private Telegram Group (FREE) ➜ https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx
Subscribe on YouTube ✅ https://bit.ly/PBNYoutubeSubscribe
X/Twitter 📱 http://bit.ly/PBNtwitter
Get official PBN merch! ➜ https://merch.paulbarronnetwork.com/
~ The Best Self Custody Wallet ➜ https://tangem.com/en/ Use Code PBN for Additional Discounts!
~ The Best Crypto Exchange ➜ Coinbase, get up to $200 in crypto - coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/BARRON
~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON
Guest: Paul Sampson, DataDash
Follow on Youtube➜ https://bit.ly/DataDashChannel
00:00 Intro
00:10 Banks want your stablecoin yields
03:20 Uh-oh
03:30 Government Shutdown uncertainty rising
04:20 $120BTC or $100K first?
06:50 Macro factors
10:00 Extreme fear?
12:20 Is Tom Lee wrong?
14:00 Gold rotation to Bitcoin?
18:30 Gold & Bitcoin 2026 outlook
20:30 Solana analysis
22:30 ETH November price prediction?
26:50 Did AVAX underperform this cycle so far?
29:50 BNB analysis
31:50 Market is expensive, rotation to defensives is a good bet
33:20 How to be defensive in crypto
38:00 Outro
#Crypto #bitcoin #etheruem
~Crypto Crash Not Over?📉Technical Analysis w/ @DataDash ~
⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺
Join our community!
Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://bit.ly/pbnmembership
Private Telegram Group (FREE) ➜ https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx
Subscribe on YouTube ✅ https://bit.ly/PBNYoutubeSubscribe
X/Twitter 📱 http://bit.ly/PBNtwitter
Get official PBN merch! ➜ https://merch.paulbarronnetwork.com/
~ The Best Self Custody Wallet ➜ https://tangem.com/en/ Use Code PBN for Additional Discounts!
~ The Best Crypto Exchange ➜ Coinbase, get up to $200 in crypto - coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/BARRON
~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's dive into it today. We're going to be talking
about the government shutdown, the crash of crypto, and of
course a lot more. You don't want to miss it.
We'll also do some charting. It's going to be a
good one. Let's just get started. I want to jump
over to a clip first, and this clip came from
this innovation summit with the FED around payments. I don't
(00:21):
want to respond to it yet. I'm going to play
it for you guys, because it just pissed me off.
Listen to this.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
You know, you should be able to pay some kind
of reward or yield on the actual T bills and
money market funds that you're holding.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
You should be able to pass some of that on
to customers.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
It's not an investment vehicle. It's not a time to
posit where you're holding it to earn interest. Right, You're
not holding currency for its yield. If Congress wanted to
let you pay interest, they should have just said let's
pay interest. So trying to backdoor it is a little funny.
It's not supposed to bear interest. And you know, at
that point it's not up to me to decide whether
(00:55):
that's up to Congress I don't want to. That's why
I don't want to think about paying interest on these
payment accounts. It's not supposed to be an account for
somebody to hold stable coins and earn interest. You're not
holding it to earn interest. So it's a claim on
the banks. You can disintermediate a bank, but you can't
disintermediate the banking system. You don't have any claim to
(01:16):
demand treasuries. You don't get to go to the bank.
I want some treasuries. They'll say, no, you get a dollar.
Here's what you get. Those are my thoughts.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
All right, So understanding that is a FED chair or
excuse me, Fed governor Waller. And this is all around
these skinny master accounts that they're talking about, which would
kind of circumvent the traditional FED master account that you
have to have on your bank, right, And what they're
talking about is allowing stable coins into this This is
where it gets a little money. Because we're not sure
(01:45):
what that means. One Congress would have to initiate that
in the Genius Act. The Genius Act is now already
in a position where they're trying the banks or trying
to get this almost redrafted all to protect bank deposits
because of the concern that we may see this massive
bank exodus going into stable coin. Now, granted, this could
still fly into possibly into the DeFi side of things.
(02:08):
There could also be some interesting investment instruments that could
be activated. But this will muddy the waters dramatically for
crypto if in fact a stable coin yield cannot be
done legally, So this is going to get pretty heated.
Of course, Brian Armstrong and many others are in DC
today trying to clarify not only this but much more
(02:31):
in the Clarity Act, which of course is possibly on
the cusp of getting approved. So there's a lot happening
right now that is still very tied to where crypto
is going. We are going to get into some looking
at some charts today and how this applied because we
saw Bitcoin, of course, of course run up this week
and it has now regressed. So I wanted to bring
(02:51):
in Paul coming in from Data Dash to kind of
break this down.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
How are you Paul doing well? Paul?
Speaker 1 (02:56):
How are you nice to see you back? If you
guys have not visited his YouTube channel, go over there
right there, Data Dash, right there on YouTube. You guys
are half a million subs over there, so good to
see you guys out there putting out some great content.
Let's get into the first point I want to hit on,
and one of the things is, of course always is
(03:19):
when Kramer does something like this, it immediately sends the
crypto market into a frenzy. But that's not really it, guys.
The real factor here that's pushing this market is things
that are happening with this government shutdown. You've got snap recipients,
now all this potentially gets cut off very short period
(03:40):
of time. You've got all these job losses now being
filed and unemployment being filed by federal workers despiked one
hundred and twenty one percent. I thought that would have
been much more than that, but this was seventy two hundred,
even though there's like almost a million that are now furloughed.
So this is a pretty significant one, highest since twenty nineteen.
And when you look at just in general the amount
(04:04):
of claims that rose nine percent from the prior week.
So it's starting to cascade, which could get very very bad,
I think in general for the economy, but also for
I think for crypto in general. So this has this
has a lot of bearing on bitcoin. Now, you had
a tweet that you put out, this would be wild
(04:24):
to get this move Explain what you're looking at, what
I'm looking at right here in terms of your charts,
and why you think we might see something come on bitcoin.
Speaker 5 (04:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Absolutely, So that was actually a little something I was
having some fun with yesterday, especially because you were getting
a nice little pop.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
But after we had that top.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Put in on the twenty or at one hundred and
twenty six thousand and six of October, right we've got
the big wick down and just kind of had this
move over, and a lot of times what happens with
that is, you know, you get this cooling off and
time kind of passes by and another like harmonic setup,
which is a sequence of Fibonacci. So all I'm looking
at is for things such as that wick down and
(05:03):
then sorry, So all I'm looking for things is things
such as when you get this wick down and then
you're looking for the rea you know, the pushback up
into some Fibonacci areas, and there's sequences of those that
have specific patterns. So in this case, I was looking
for what's called de Gartle and it is this setup here.
So when we came down and made the eight eight
(05:24):
to six pullback last week. I think it was like
the seventeenth Friday holding. That just kind of set this
up where I was looking for a run back up
towards that seven eighty six retlacement. So basically just looking
for this to push up into the one twenty mark.
I utilized fib time a lot, so a lot of
times it usually takes just about the same amount of
time to get from this point to this point, from
(05:44):
that point to the end, So that's why I had
the dates up there between. I think it was Sunday
to Tuesday of this week basically, so yesterday we're getting
that push up. On Tuesday, I was just looking at
I was like, man, it would be interesting to get
that push up. This would be a bearish setup, of course,
and then over I actually still imagine we're rolling towards
this ninety seven thousand dollars mark in the near ish
(06:05):
term before we continue, if we're going to continue up
from here. But that's what I was looking for, and
it's still something that I'm looking to see if bitcoin
does push back up towards that one twenty mark in
the next coming weeks. Here I think that we're just
really just range bound at this point for the short
term here, all.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Right, so you look at where the market is right now,
we put this pull out in reference to kind of
bullishness on bitcoin. Are people more bullish to one twenty
or the one hundred much to your point right there?
This I know this looks neck and neck, but remember,
you know, Bitcoin trading at one o eight right now
as we're recording, so technically this would be a little
(06:44):
bit more bullish to go the one twenty route, right
in terms of how this plays out. Do you think
people right now are maybe overestimating this market at least
in the short term, of the bullish nature of it
with so many macro environments pushing this thing down.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, you know, it's we've discussed last time.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
When I was on I think it was like the
day we were topping pretty much, it was like the
six or seventh of October, and for me, I was
looking for like one thirty, not much more than we
already were going to and I also was targeting that
you know target and that timeframe from months ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Uh So essentially we've topped there.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
And one of the things we discussed was the idea
that if we see a substantial pullback from here, that
everybody would be really really married to the idea that's
four year cycle hit. You know, the top is in
and even just getting a slight pullback to one hundred k,
so nine, you know, breaking one hundred would really like
put the gas on that. And then, like you said,
now now we're surrounded by all these you know, news
events and catalysts that seem like it's you know, pushing
(07:43):
it down as well. Uh to me, honestly, I think
we put in a top at one twenty six and
from there I was always anticipating a range to come
out of it for a couple more months, just like
we've seen basically the entirety of this bold market so
far as we all are really aware of, going back
even to twenty twenty two, after we you know, pretty
much started this run up. You got the initial run
(08:04):
and then we just ranged around, giving everybody plenty of time.
We just argue back and forth, bullmarket, bear market, bullmarket,
bear market, boring everybody out of it just to continue up.
You get another range to the side here at seventy
four k for six months, which really just kind of
went sideways and down, but not crazy. This is only
like a thirty percent pullback again bear market max fear
trade carry trade fear at the low's here, only to
(08:26):
break back up again. You get another sideways when this
one's a little quicker. So I just mentioned this in
a video today that at least this one got over
quicker than expected. But same thing, just a twenty and
thirty percent pullback, big fears at the low right the
the tariff war you know, basically broke out in this
window and then now again we're getting the tariff you know,
headlines to just kind of you know, push down the
(08:48):
price here. But ultimately I was also looking for this again,
a really big sequence of Fibonacci's that took place from
the carry trade low with the timeframe of putting in
a high around that week of.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
The twenty ninth, which aligns with the four year cycle.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
We pushed you know, three percent away from it, and
ultimately the first target of this whole setup was back
down to the three eight two, which we've essentially are
sitting at right now. So with this the way it is, again,
it's more so probably more probable to me that we
range around in this region make our way down to
the secondary target zone, which is about ninety four to
(09:25):
ninety seven. But to me, I really think that this
has a really big opportunity area for this to be
the next major support and then we actually take it
back up to new all time highs in twenty twenty six.
But right now, yes to agree. You know that everything
around us feels like it's pushing it down.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But yeah, all right, So interesting that you kind of
compared it to that range bound section around seventy five
K because that was one of the areas where I
think a lot of people thought bitcoin was done and
then of course we saw the run up from there.
Here's here's my question with the timing. And this was
an interesting post by virtual Bacon over there. You guys
(10:03):
should check him out. He does a good job on
YouTube as well. But Marcus, don't stop on fear they
bought him. And I agree with this. And my point
is this, though, Paul, is when you look at where
we are right now, the four year cycle play that
into it, and then you look at the potential around
the macro elements that are also playing into it, because
(10:23):
it's likely we're going to get another seventy five basis
points this year, they could roll this into even more
aggressive next year. Government shutdown is not going to be forever.
It's going to come back, and hopefully this you know,
crypto regulation gets cleared. All those are still very bullish
signs what you're and there's several macro analysts that are
pointing toward an elongated cycle. Would you agree that if
(10:47):
we are pushing and we do, let's say we hit
that one hundred k mark, that ninety seven that you're
kind of pointing to, would you be worried that a
lot of people in the crypto market would say that
was the top up at one twenty six, we're now
in a bear market.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Definitely.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
I feel like we see that as it is every
day right now. Anytime you get just to push up
to fourteen. Yesterday the eu fourio was kicking back in
for a hot minute, and you dropped it right back
the next day. And then you scan through and everybody's like, oh,
you know, see you at sixty thousand, see you at
thirty thousand. You know all these things right, and people
are giving exact dates. They're thinking that, you know, they
can pinpoint the exact low for bitcoin next year at
(11:25):
November time, and I definitely foresee that that would be
the case. And just to double up on your fear
and greed piece. I don't know if you guys can
see this chart or Okay, I don't have a showing here,
but yeah, I was just going to showcase how even
right now bitcoin trading at one hundred and eight or
nine thousand dollars, the crypto market is in extreme fear
right now. And to Virtual Bacon's point, you know, generally speaking,
(11:48):
we don't see the market top there. Yes, we were
in a little bit more of a neutral area when
we did top at one twenty six, But yeah, I
think that we're in a very similar situation to what
we saw each and every basic side ways piece that
we've seen on Bitcoin, the whole way up from thirty
thousand back in twenty twenty three or four to the
seventy thousand dollars last year, and then even to this
(12:08):
year when we topped off at one hundred and eight
thousand on Inauguration Day. So yeah, I think that it's
definitely setting up for a big surprise if anything.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
All right, Well, one thing to consider is there is
one guy that's very bullish still and that is Tom Lee.
He's calling for an S and P five hundred at
seven thousand, so very very aggressive to get to a
seven thousand by year end. That would change things around.
And again, this is something I've said before. If Tom
Lee is right on these calls, this guy's going to
(12:37):
go down as the most amazing investor call investor call
we've seen, because he's been going against the current, you know,
for quite some time on not only bitcoin but also
of where we're standing on Ethereum. I want to go
to a click a clip real quick, because this is
Mike Novigrat's kind of going the opposite position.
Speaker 5 (12:57):
Take a look the big deal leverageing that happened a
week ago.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
That's not good for markets, right.
Speaker 5 (13:03):
It wiped out a lot of market makers, means less liquidity,
and you can see yesterday we were down and then
up four percent and then right back down, and so
there's a little less liquidity in the market. It took
a lot of retail leverage out of the system, and
so the good news is were less leveraged. The bad
news is when Humpty Dumpty breaks, he doesn't get put
together right away.
Speaker 6 (13:22):
How do you think about it? We've had obviously all
sorts of folks from Tom Ley and others who come
on and said, by the end of the year, we
could be a two hundred fifty thousand dollars for this coin. Obviously,
others like Kathy would have even you know, more aggressive
and optimistic views longer term out But where are you
right this moment?
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Yeah, listen, at the.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
End of the year is only two and a half
months away, and so there would have to be a
heck of a lot of you know, crazy stuff to
really get that kind of momentum. I do think, you know,
we should hold one hundred, you know, one hundred or
somewhere close to that should be the downside. And on
the upside, you know, you don't really accelerate until you
take out one twenty five. And so the most likely
(14:03):
outlook is we're rangy between you know, one hundred and
one twenty one twenty five unless we take out the
top side. We could take out the top side if
you know, the President prematurely makes a move on the FED,
which you know they could, they could target that easily
by the end of the year. And if this bill
gets passed, I mean, those are the two kind of catalysts.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I see all right, so you can kind of see it.
He's still a little bit more on the bearish side,
kind of counter to what Tom Lee is saying. Then
you have to flip over to the gold market. We
saw the gold market also adjust yesterday. Gold prices fell
almost six percent. This was the largest one day drop
since April of twenty thirteen. We called this out in
(14:45):
our you know video yesterday. This is a sigma move
right now. In other words, a large move only happens
in one out of two hundred and forty thousand days
in a normal world. That's uh, that's an interesting situation.
So MI question is are we rotating? Is there are
there assets that are trying to rotate, even though at
the time maybe it was a short rotation into bitcoin
(15:08):
and then literally taking liquidity right back out of the market.
How did you play gold and bitcoin right now as
a hedge.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Yeah, so let's take a look at gold.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Last time I was on I believe it was just
breaking through that like right around the four thousand dollars mark.
But we discussed this one a couple of times. I
think that gold and bitcoin are very very much alike
in the sense of the only thing you can even
compare bitcoin two in this time is gold with the
price action and the things we've seen in history, especially
as we come into some major turning points or events
(15:43):
in you know, our financial history that goes that way.
Usually when we see gold pumping, generally is not a
great sign in the next coming twelve to twenty four months,
because that's generally when people are running away from fiat
currencies are kind of hedging their bets a little bit
ahead of big downturns. But anyways, gold had a huge
break of you know, the previous high here, we ran
it up, you consolidate it, and it was pretty much
just these two areas. I was looking to thirty six
(16:05):
hundred to see if we could hit the brakes at all.
It was just straight through it and then ran up
basically to the next major area here.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
So now we're going to cool off.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
And it was said that in that timeframe you had
the rotation into bitcoin because as in the time we
pulled back on gold like this five almost ten percent,
which is actually pretty massive in that case, is when
bitcoin pushed up to the one fourteen, So yeah, I mean,
is that something, And it was equal eight to ten percent.
Which is interesting is that an even split on you know,
(16:34):
was everybody taking profits out of gold dumping in bitcoin,
Like you said, it was just momentarily almost because bitcoin's
already given up those gains. Personally, I think that this
is just a natural move out of gold. We've you know,
come up into a region of a next major Even
though we're in price discovery, you could still anticipate areas
where you're gonna hit the you know, get a little
cool down. And what you want to see is this
(16:55):
right here where we're actually pulling back, because now you
can actually you know, present new and formation here on
the next legs up. And generally speaking, when you have
a huge move up like this very strong, you can
see we've had no pullbacks basically along the way. You
do pull back to that three eight two, and that's
usually where I look to seek continuation, which is usually
a shallower retlacement. Usually people will look for the gold
(17:16):
pocket or anything like that. This is twenty eight but
this three three a two, what we're coming into right
now is just below four thousand, So it's nice right
under that you know, psychological level where again people are
already starting to kind of get worried that gold may
have topped and everything of that nature. But realistically, to me,
as long as we're holding above this region and even
down to this area, I think that we still have
(17:36):
legs and room to run this back up. The only
thing we may see here is just similar to Bitcoin,
you may get a little bit of a range here.
So to Mike, I think of what Mike Novagrats's point
right there, We're just we've come off of some really
huge moves here, and then I think that's just the
time where we're just going to cool off a bit
before the next legs up.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
But I do anticipate both Gold.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
You know, Gold may not see extreme moves up from
here like ten and twenty thousand dollars, but I think
that we still have legs to the upside. And then Bitcoin,
I think is going to make that next move up
in twenty six as well.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
So in if you were calling twenty twenty six and
let's assume that we don't see massive moves toward the
end of the year, I'll go the my Novogratz side.
Even though I think Tom Lee is intriguing in the
sense that he's still calling for these crazy highs. If
you look into twenty twenty six bitcoin and gold, do
you have any potential projections for those.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
For next year? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (18:26):
For gold, Like again, it's all you know, determined on
how we react right in this region, and I guess
I would start to say that things start to not
look so great as if we come back and get
below thirty six hundred, and at that point I would
say that you probably switch it into a little bit
of a downtrend here.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
But as long as we're.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Above that, I could see us pushing up to at
least we're going to hit that forty four hundred mark.
I mean, that's a no brainer at this point. But
the way I would look at this too is I
would just take a simple extension right here from that
last impulse move and take it to our high Let's
assume we get a bounce off of this three eight
two around four thousand dollars, and then the next two
that I could see again we'll probably kind of spend
(19:04):
some time here too. I do think maybe the rest
of this year, which again two months from now, not
a lot of time, we probably do cool off a bit,
and then the next leg up I only say into
next year just because we're at a place where, you know,
two months is not a lot of time to just
kind of get eight weeks to see a cool off
after a move like this and then into you know,
the next coming months here push up to forty six
(19:26):
and then ultimately five thousand, I think is a really
big number for gold in the future.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
There, Okay, let's bitcoin, Yeah yeah, hit bitcoin real quick
as far as twenty twenty six is concerned.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
So for bitcoin, the next move I'm looking at at
a bitcoin is assuming that we come down in this
one ninety seven same deal essentially is just really taking
some looks at some just the next jount up. So
taking this huge impulse move, projecting it off of where
we may bottom out at the one sixty mark to
two hundred is my projection for bitcoin in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
I just you know, again, I.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Don't necessarily think we're going to get there this year.
In the next two months, I think we're.
Speaker 3 (20:10):
Going to cool off a bit.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
And then in that same time though, I think that
we have potential for the all coins. If we're going
to have a rotation, I think it might head into bitcoin.
I'm sorry Ethereum and some of the all coins, so
I'm sure we're going to dive into some of those here.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Yeah, speaking of those, let's talk about Solana real quick.
They've got their Hong Kong approval, so this is the
first spot ETF that is live, so we've got.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
That going on.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
You also look at in general their ETF now is
paying a six to seven percent yield to holder. So
this changes the I think dramatically into how people are
looking at Solana in general. If you look at the
Solana chart right now, where would this be a buye
for Soul if we do go down and what do
(20:54):
you think we're going to see on Solana by year end.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
By year? And let's take a peek.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So one setup that I've been monitoring for the better
part of this year, so from August of last year
actually and then into April when we had the tariff.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Bottom brought this up a few.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Times already was this setup where one ninety six was
a crucial level to hold above and we were discussing
how the you know, the SPOTTYTF and some of the
volume that was coming into Solana really added to the
to the idea here that we would see that next
jount up because as long as you're holding above one
ninety six. I imagine that we would push up probability
wise to two seventy four and three twenty three. Only
(21:33):
issue here, technically speaking, is that we've now lost that
one ninety six, not a death sentence by any means,
probably could come back down towards you know, some lower
areas if you're looking for that, you know, like you
just mentioned a by zone, I would say probably back
to like one p fifty on Solana. It's still something
to just kind of be aware of, is that we're
up fifty percent even at that point from earlier this year.
(21:55):
So it's just something that depends on whoever, however your
entry and you know you're investing strat as he goes.
But I still ultimately imagine we're going to see a
push towards this two seventy four and three twenty three
on Solona.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
And I'll go ahead to even just say probably by
the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
We'll give it that, you know, the fun two month
marker from here and see how it ends all right.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
There you go, Well, listen, that would be a pretty
significant move for Soul trading at one eighty two right now,
and in general, our our sentiment metrics are not very
positive on Solona right now with money flow coming out,
So that's a big deal. Let's get into further into
this because I want to jump over to Ethereum real quick.
A lot of good news for Ethereum if you think
(22:35):
about it, eth now adoption compounding, you got Shopify now
supporting the stripe rolled out stable coins, Robin Hood's announcing
their Arbitram move with their their l two, You've got
van Ak going in with an ETHERTF for stake, and
you got Walmart saying, hey, that's all right, we're going
to take some Ethereum on this thing in terms of payment.
(22:57):
So very bullish for Ethereum. Why aren't we seeing the
chart move here, Paul? What's going on?
Speaker 2 (23:05):
That's always the question, right, Yeah, So I always point
this out, even with Soilana. Right now, right, we just
got that big ETF news, which you know, it's not
to say that it wouldn't be a bigger ETF if
we got it here in the States, but big news there,
and it seems like nothing kind of came out of
the price action short term. If you think back to
even when we got Ethereum's first news of ETFs and
(23:27):
everything back.
Speaker 3 (23:28):
In twenty four I think it was like baytime.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That was literally it was slow, and we actually crashed
fifty percent from the high from the day that the
ETF got listed, you know, at some point beforehand, so
you know, it's not always an immediate you know piece
that that that ties in with the technicals there. And
actually I usually go against the herd a little bit
when we hit the big news events, at least the
short term, because a lot of times that occurs.
Speaker 3 (23:50):
But for ETH, I just.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Wanted to kind of highlight again one of the biggest
reasons that I'm a huge ETH bowl. I wish that
it was a little bit more to tie this into
all the old coins, but unfortunately they don't seem like
they're having the same result. But we had this humongous
this is back from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty five,
huge reversal setup that I've been tracking, or had been tracking,
especially since twenty twenty three. I had targeted the completion
(24:15):
that come in here. So blah blah blah, big big
zone for this to come into again, this is major
time for him. So we're talking ups and downs along
the way. Even since we you know, pushed off that low.
There's been several times where we've seen corrections and everything
along the way, but in this case, we're showcasing ETH
outperforming Bitcoin in the you know, short term. Here the
(24:37):
two major areas I'm looking for, which the big one
being up in this region at point zero six. I'm
targeting for that to continue from where we are to
get to throughout the year of twenty twenty six. So
another reason that twenty twenty six to me has had
some malishists behind it for the crypto market. I don't
imagine that ETH would be the only thing pushing up
if we were. So currently we're bouncing off of some support.
(24:59):
I think that we had some again, we're cooling off
a little bit from that last liquidation piece and have
the room to move back up into this region here.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
So with all the good.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
News around it, I do think that it's something that
will start to click in. And when we look at
the actual ETH chart, I think that we were looking
at this last time, but I cleaned it up so
it's a little bit more just kind of clear, and
this would be how I'd gauge how ETH is going
to be doing for the next few months. Here we
pushed up again off of this really big drop, the
(25:29):
fourteen hundred, and you know the tariff woes earlier this year,
big push up, just similar to what we're looking at
with gold. You have some small pullbacks along the way,
but ultimately it's just a straight line up towards the
all time high. You then pull back to the three
eight to two. So again you know, if you're looking
for a deeper retlacement like that six to one eighth
the gold pocket, at least for now we're holding above it,
and a lot of times you'll seek out that continuation
(25:52):
from there. So we're sitting on that really big level.
I think we discussed thirty three hundred was the big
by zone I would consider back on the last on
the last video, I think we went to thirty four
on the drop, which wasn't the way I drew it up,
so to be fair, I thought we'd go higher first
before we dropped like that. But anyways, we're holding this
level as long as we're above thirty six hundred. I
think we're consolidating here for ethereum, and the push up
(26:13):
and the timing I'm getting off of this, by the way,
is just by measuring out this last impulse again utilizing
some fifth times. It's not perfect, not overly married to it,
but this is what we could see here, these target
areas coming in around this timeframe, so within like the
next ninety days, and it does go up to seven thousand,
but I wouldn't overlook the fifty six hundred, you know,
which would be a great move new all time highs
(26:34):
out of eth and in that time frame, it would
be under the idea that Bitcoin's actually remaining range bound
within that hundred, one hundred and twenty thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
So let's jump over to Avalanche because this is one
that I think a lot of people follow on our channel,
and has Avalanche underperformed on this cycle so far? This
is Emmon talking about the fact that they were up
during this Amazon issue. And if you kind of compare this,
there's the operational status of everyone during the AWS cloud outage,
(27:08):
which is Salona, Avalanche, eh all stayed moderately to high resilience.
What about AVAX right now? Is it underperformed or are
you expecting anything from it?
Speaker 2 (27:21):
So I think that Avalanche, there's many things I feel like,
you know, it's a lot of the all coins have
just been so range bound. And one thing that I
always like to point out, you know, when we hop
on that we have on these collaborations together, Paul, A
lot of times it depends on what's going on the
timing of things, because sometimes you'll hit me with what
would I buy today? Right, And just a few weeks
(27:42):
ago we were trading with Avalanche up here at twenty
seven dollars and it was already up you know, sixty
seven percent of the time. We had that liquidation event
that came down and you could look across and some
you know, well, well many didn't see it coming.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
It's just one of those things. I feel like we
have to always be prepared for this.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
About the third one, and by the way, we've seen
them last year and a half March of last year,
I think that February of this year, and then just
a couple of weeks back and now where you have
those big liquidation events in the all coins. But for Avalanche,
we had this one level down here that I'd marked
out and essentially we left it for this whole time,
and by no means was it something that you could
guarantee we get to. But it's an area you just
(28:20):
if you're looking for those stink bids, or if something
ever crashed, or if you're looking to deploy capital into
something that's already up sixty percent, you's always got to
be aware that we could always come down to these
lower areas. So it's always a good idea. I'm just
kind of rambling here on the little investing strategy. But
if you ever come into something that's already up, even
if we have more upside to go, you can always,
(28:40):
you know, keep a little bit on the side for
those big pullbacks, those big red days, which is what
I always tend to do. But to answer the question
on has Avalanche underperformed, I mean it definitely has in
the case of looking at others in the realm of like, okay,
you know xrps of five hundred percent versus this or whatever.
But overall the whole, I think it looks pretty much
(29:01):
like this. Right, We've pretty much had a nice Bitcoin run.
The all coins as a whole are pretty range bound
at the moment and can see a sizeable move if
we get going here. It just depends on getting out
of here. So we're back in the range yet again,
and just yeah, I still foresee a really decent break
for Avalanche and a move back to some of these
key levels. It's littered with targets above it, and again,
(29:22):
Avalanche is not something that's just there's not something that's
just a run of the mill all coin. This is
something that has real use case utility. It has an
actual product that's online and as you stated, you know
is staying online against the AWS issues. So I think
it's just something that again is just in an accumulation
zone and just got to be patient with it.
Speaker 4 (29:42):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
A couple other things I want to get on before
we get out of here is one, of course, Robinhood
just listed B and B, so we saw a pretty
significant downturn on B and B in general after they
flipped XRP in terms of market cap, though XRP now
has clawed its way back with then striking distance again.
If you were looking at B and B, is this
(30:03):
a buy right now? Or would you pass on this one?
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Personally, it's it's it's a pass on to me just
because I don't love if again, if I'm deploying brand
new capital to day, I don't love to chase something
that's basically breaking out into new all time highs. The
only thing about that is a lot of times that
is what gains the momentum though, right, You know, you
could argue the same thing against golden Bitcoin recently, where
if you didn't buy it at the breakout just because
(30:29):
it was the highest thing on the market that day,
you know, you're still lost out on that move. So
it just again comes into your own personal you know,
investing outlook there. But for me, yeah, this is coming
into big, big targets. We got the cool down. And
the only thing about B and B that I will
say is that last you know alt coin rally essentially
so January of twenty twenty one, right before we had
(30:50):
the twenty twenty one you know, huge bull run.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
It was the first mover.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
If I recall could I could be wrong, so I
don't overly quote that, but I am pretty sure this
was one of the first movers and went from like
seven dollars to you know, like seventy really quickly, and
then of course it ran up to seven hundred. And
the reason I remember that is because I remember looking
at it at seven and being like, wow, I missed
one hundred x opportunity if I didn't just go all
in on that.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Point, but it was a really big mover there as
a starting mover.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
So to see this again basically being you know, one
of the biggest breakouts of an all time high. You know,
we had XRP push up recently, but it's already back
below that all time high. This is the true blue
break that I can think of, at least, or at
least one of them of the big majors that has
broken the all time high and remained above and in
the previous session, that's what initiated that last all coin run.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
So it's interesting.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
I think it does have some more upside ahead of it,
but I would it probably wouldn't be my first choice
because of where it's already at.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Listen, we're talking about trying to rotate into defensive positions.
Some people are kind of going into that. Let me
play a clip for you and then I want to
get your opinion on whether you would hold all coins
right now or try to position out. Take a look.
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Do you have concerns about overconcentration If you really look
at some of the big AI companies, it's about a
third of the market, like the mag seven. Is that
concentration concerning as we still have a lot of their
earnings coming up, including Tesla after the bill.
Speaker 8 (32:11):
Absolutely, and one of the things we do agree is
that the market is expensive, particularly when you look at
those top companies, and so a little rotation taking some
of the money off the top, putting it in some
more defensives is probably a good bed at this point.
Speaker 7 (32:27):
So your word of the day is actually defense. Yes,
so you're saying you want to be defensive, But how
do you get defensive? Is it goal which just had
a big pullback yesterday? Is it bonds? I was actually
talking to a very notable investor. They believe that bonds
are relatively cheap and that it's a short term trade.
Actually you buy the bonds now, and they expect the
par value to go up quite a bit as we
continue to see more economic uncertainty. Which way should you
play defense?
Speaker 8 (32:47):
So for me, I'm talking defense just within the equities world.
I actually I do agree on the fixed income side,
but for here, I'm talking about shifting out of some
of the more expensive high flyers your mag seven and
look at for healthcare telecom specifically to really get a
little more oops as we go into this earning season
(33:07):
and into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
All right, So my question here, Paul, is how do
you play defense with crypto if you're looking at the
current market as this is right now, we've got ethan
bitcoin retracing. What are the defensive positions in terms of
tokens during these markets? Staking go the ETF route if
you want exposure top ten, staying there or just piling
(33:33):
into bitcoin and eath.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
You know, the contrarian side of me at the moment,
just because of how beaten down the sentiment is on
all coins and the fact that I think everybody is
just really really a not even just giving up on them,
but afraid of them at this point. And for good measure, Yeah,
I don't know. I just feel like, you know, you
asked if I would hold all coins, and my portfolio
(33:58):
is heavily based within bitcoin, but it's more so ethereum.
As far as the all coin route would go, I'm
probably in the all coin world like ninety percent eth
and then I have ten percent that I do allocate
towards other all coins that you know, can they go
to zero?
Speaker 3 (34:11):
That's just the risk we all take.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
But it's it's just the allocation that you know, I
feel comfortable with and when I look at all coins
and I guess to back it up before get into
the chart here, but the defensive outlook right, it's like
there's nothing that's I guess not to confuse defensive with
safe for some of these aults, because obviously these are
things that we can't really you control one hundred percent.
I would always, you know, immediately, i'd state things such
(34:35):
as you know Ethereum, Solana Avalanche, even XRP Cardono, while
you know, some of those ones have been around for
so long and that's kind of the to me, the
more defensive plays that they've survived already multiple you know,
down poles. Granted, the percentage that they're going to go
down is is still there, so to protect yourself against that.
I feel like bitcoin is always going to be the
(34:56):
main hedge because whatever, you know, Bitcoin's definitely going to
follow the least of the the rest.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Of the market.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
But if you have to be in your all coins,
if you're looking for those, then yeah, I feel like
the safe bet is the top ten or twenty. But
when I look at the alt coin market here, Paul,
I'm gonna be honest with you, there was something I
pointed out a few months back, and it was I
joke about it because it was one of those things
it was before it was cool, which was this cup
and handle, all right, and everybody's pretty familiar with that
(35:21):
where you get the nice rounded shape and you get
the handle here, and then you look for that breakout
and everybody gets really excited. Usually at the breakout, you know,
I'd identified this area when we came back down. This
was again the tariff flows, so that's when I got
the majority of you know, my pickups for this year
at least, and then just looking for the next size
was to get the above that level here. But one
(35:42):
thing that happens at these almost every time that initial
push up is that it always is a fake out.
And what we had right here at the high was
and again for anybody looking at the total two markets,
so this is everything in the market except for bitcoin,
to kind of help to identify which way the all
coins as a whole could go here, And like B
and B and ETH, pushing up twenty and thirty percent
(36:03):
by all means does drag this up alone. But overall
I'd say that if we're holding above this one point
three three trillion for the all coins, I still see
a world where the all coins could see a decent
move up. Now it might not be them all, but yeah,
it's just to me, it's this doesn't look that bad.
And what we had here too at the end here
was a harmonic setup. So again one of those just
(36:26):
Fibonacci just perfectly where we had this old Fibonacci swee
sequence right here. You come up and you fake everybody
out at the high and then right to the target
areas here. So as long as we're holding above here, Paul,
I think that we are still in a good shape
for the overall all coin market to continue up. And
again not to just go on the boat of like
saying twenty twenty six and it's a super cycle or
(36:50):
anything like that. It's just looking at the information at
hand here, that's just where we're steamrolling into. And for me,
with the twenty year cycle that I've been you know,
basically on about for a long time, that completion zone
of all markets that I've kind of targeted comes right
in line with the end of next year, aka the
beginning of twenty twenty seven, you know, is really big
for me. So I really think that we have the
(37:11):
opportunity here to just if people can be patient and
kind of see how things shake out here, that the
market actually may surprise us going into the next few months.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Well, we're looking at current market cap at three point
six trillion. You've got fear and greed holding at twenty
nine right now, So to your point, earlier definitely much lower,
and then all coin season way low on the chart
again at twenty seven. So to your point, there interesting
(37:39):
interesting times guys we have with in reality. I mean,
there's still so much bullish news, but at the same time,
there's so many headwinds coming from the macro side. I
feel like it needates that and unfortunately negative news, you
almost need double the positive news to kind of offset
negative news because it's people I think in general are
pessimistic by nature.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
I agree, instead of possaging and.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Are trying to look at this on a bigger picture. Hey, listen,
it's always fun having you on the show. We'll definitely
have you back. Thanks for coming in today.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
We appreciate it. Paul. Thanks, Paul, have a good one,
all right, see.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
You you guys jump in on our diamond circle. That's
where we do an additional email out to you guys.
It kind of gives you a framework of what I'm
looking at in the markets. I do it every week
to you. It's called the Baron Market Edge. You can
join that just by clicking the link down below. Catch
me out there on TikTok at Official Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on The Paul Baron
Show
Let's dive into it today. We're going to be talking
about the government shutdown, the crash of crypto, and of
course a lot more. You don't want to miss it.
We'll also do some charting. It's going to be a
good one. Let's just get started. I want to jump
over to a clip first, and this clip came from
this innovation summit with the FED around payments. I don't
(00:21):
want to respond to it yet. I'm going to play
it for you guys, because it just pissed me off.
Listen to this.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
You know, you should be able to pay some kind
of reward or yield on the actual T bills and
money market funds that you're holding.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
You should be able to pass some of that on
to customers.
Speaker 4 (00:35):
It's not an investment vehicle. It's not a time to
posit where you're holding it to earn interest. Right, You're
not holding currency for its yield. If Congress wanted to
let you pay interest, they should have just said let's
pay interest. So trying to backdoor it is a little funny.
It's not supposed to bear interest. And you know, at
that point it's not up to me to decide whether
(00:55):
that's up to Congress I don't want to. That's why
I don't want to think about paying interest on these
payment accounts. It's not supposed to be an account for
somebody to hold stable coins and earn interest. You're not
holding it to earn interest. So it's a claim on
the banks. You can disintermediate a bank, but you can't
disintermediate the banking system. You don't have any claim to
(01:16):
demand treasuries. You don't get to go to the bank.
I want some treasuries. They'll say, no, you get a dollar.
Here's what you get. Those are my thoughts.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
All right, So understanding that is a FED chair or
excuse me, Fed governor Waller. And this is all around
these skinny master accounts that they're talking about, which would
kind of circumvent the traditional FED master account that you
have to have on your bank, right, And what they're
talking about is allowing stable coins into this This is
where it gets a little money. Because we're not sure
(01:45):
what that means. One Congress would have to initiate that
in the Genius Act. The Genius Act is now already
in a position where they're trying the banks or trying
to get this almost redrafted all to protect bank deposits
because of the concern that we may see this massive
bank exodus going into stable coin. Now, granted, this could
still fly into possibly into the DeFi side of things.
(02:08):
There could also be some interesting investment instruments that could
be activated. But this will muddy the waters dramatically for
crypto if in fact a stable coin yield cannot be
done legally, So this is going to get pretty heated.
Of course, Brian Armstrong and many others are in DC
today trying to clarify not only this but much more
(02:31):
in the Clarity Act, which of course is possibly on
the cusp of getting approved. So there's a lot happening
right now that is still very tied to where crypto
is going. We are going to get into some looking
at some charts today and how this applied because we
saw Bitcoin, of course, of course run up this week
and it has now regressed. So I wanted to bring
(02:51):
in Paul coming in from Data Dash to kind of
break this down.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
How are you Paul doing well? Paul?
Speaker 1 (02:56):
How are you nice to see you back? If you
guys have not visited his YouTube channel, go over there
right there, Data Dash, right there on YouTube. You guys
are half a million subs over there, so good to
see you guys out there putting out some great content.
Let's get into the first point I want to hit on,
and one of the things is, of course always is
(03:19):
when Kramer does something like this, it immediately sends the
crypto market into a frenzy. But that's not really it, guys.
The real factor here that's pushing this market is things
that are happening with this government shutdown. You've got snap recipients,
now all this potentially gets cut off very short period
(03:40):
of time. You've got all these job losses now being
filed and unemployment being filed by federal workers despiked one
hundred and twenty one percent. I thought that would have
been much more than that, but this was seventy two hundred,
even though there's like almost a million that are now furloughed.
So this is a pretty significant one, highest since twenty nineteen.
And when you look at just in general the amount
(04:04):
of claims that rose nine percent from the prior week.
So it's starting to cascade, which could get very very bad,
I think in general for the economy, but also for
I think for crypto in general. So this has this
has a lot of bearing on bitcoin. Now, you had
a tweet that you put out, this would be wild
(04:24):
to get this move Explain what you're looking at, what
I'm looking at right here in terms of your charts,
and why you think we might see something come on bitcoin.
Speaker 5 (04:34):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (04:34):
Absolutely, So that was actually a little something I was
having some fun with yesterday, especially because you were getting
a nice little pop.
Speaker 3 (04:42):
But after we had that top.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
Put in on the twenty or at one hundred and
twenty six thousand and six of October, right we've got
the big wick down and just kind of had this
move over, and a lot of times what happens with
that is, you know, you get this cooling off and
time kind of passes by and another like harmonic setup,
which is a sequence of Fibonacci. So all I'm looking
at is for things such as that wick down and
(05:03):
then sorry, So all I'm looking for things is things
such as when you get this wick down and then
you're looking for the rea you know, the pushback up
into some Fibonacci areas, and there's sequences of those that
have specific patterns. So in this case, I was looking
for what's called de Gartle and it is this setup here.
So when we came down and made the eight eight
(05:24):
to six pullback last week. I think it was like
the seventeenth Friday holding. That just kind of set this
up where I was looking for a run back up
towards that seven eighty six retlacement. So basically just looking
for this to push up into the one twenty mark.
I utilized fib time a lot, so a lot of
times it usually takes just about the same amount of
time to get from this point to this point, from
(05:44):
that point to the end, So that's why I had
the dates up there between. I think it was Sunday
to Tuesday of this week basically, so yesterday we're getting
that push up. On Tuesday, I was just looking at
I was like, man, it would be interesting to get
that push up. This would be a bearish setup, of course,
and then over I actually still imagine we're rolling towards
this ninety seven thousand dollars mark in the near ish
(06:05):
term before we continue, if we're going to continue up
from here. But that's what I was looking for, and
it's still something that I'm looking to see if bitcoin
does push back up towards that one twenty mark in
the next coming weeks. Here I think that we're just
really just range bound at this point for the short
term here, all.
Speaker 1 (06:21):
Right, so you look at where the market is right now,
we put this pull out in reference to kind of
bullishness on bitcoin. Are people more bullish to one twenty
or the one hundred much to your point right there?
This I know this looks neck and neck, but remember,
you know, Bitcoin trading at one o eight right now
as we're recording, so technically this would be a little
(06:44):
bit more bullish to go the one twenty route, right
in terms of how this plays out. Do you think
people right now are maybe overestimating this market at least
in the short term, of the bullish nature of it
with so many macro environments pushing this thing down.
Speaker 3 (07:04):
Yeah, you know, it's we've discussed last time.
Speaker 2 (07:06):
When I was on I think it was like the
day we were topping pretty much, it was like the
six or seventh of October, and for me, I was
looking for like one thirty, not much more than we
already were going to and I also was targeting that
you know target and that timeframe from months ahead.
Speaker 3 (07:19):
Uh So essentially we've topped there.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
And one of the things we discussed was the idea
that if we see a substantial pullback from here, that
everybody would be really really married to the idea that's
four year cycle hit. You know, the top is in
and even just getting a slight pullback to one hundred k,
so nine, you know, breaking one hundred would really like
put the gas on that. And then, like you said,
now now we're surrounded by all these you know, news
events and catalysts that seem like it's you know, pushing
(07:43):
it down as well. Uh to me, honestly, I think
we put in a top at one twenty six and
from there I was always anticipating a range to come
out of it for a couple more months, just like
we've seen basically the entirety of this bold market so
far as we all are really aware of, going back
even to twenty twenty two, after we you know, pretty
much started this run up. You got the initial run
(08:04):
and then we just ranged around, giving everybody plenty of time.
We just argue back and forth, bullmarket, bear market, bullmarket,
bear market, boring everybody out of it just to continue up.
You get another range to the side here at seventy
four k for six months, which really just kind of
went sideways and down, but not crazy. This is only
like a thirty percent pullback again bear market max fear
trade carry trade fear at the low's here, only to
(08:26):
break back up again. You get another sideways when this
one's a little quicker. So I just mentioned this in
a video today that at least this one got over
quicker than expected. But same thing, just a twenty and
thirty percent pullback, big fears at the low right the
the tariff war you know, basically broke out in this
window and then now again we're getting the tariff you know,
headlines to just kind of you know, push down the
(08:48):
price here. But ultimately I was also looking for this again,
a really big sequence of Fibonacci's that took place from
the carry trade low with the timeframe of putting in
a high around that week of.
Speaker 3 (09:01):
The twenty ninth, which aligns with the four year cycle.
Speaker 2 (09:05):
We pushed you know, three percent away from it, and
ultimately the first target of this whole setup was back
down to the three eight two, which we've essentially are
sitting at right now. So with this the way it is, again,
it's more so probably more probable to me that we
range around in this region make our way down to
the secondary target zone, which is about ninety four to
(09:25):
ninety seven. But to me, I really think that this
has a really big opportunity area for this to be
the next major support and then we actually take it
back up to new all time highs in twenty twenty six.
But right now, yes to agree. You know that everything
around us feels like it's pushing it down.
Speaker 1 (09:40):
But yeah, all right, So interesting that you kind of
compared it to that range bound section around seventy five
K because that was one of the areas where I
think a lot of people thought bitcoin was done and
then of course we saw the run up from there.
Here's here's my question with the timing. And this was
an interesting post by virtual Bacon over there. You guys
(10:03):
should check him out. He does a good job on
YouTube as well. But Marcus, don't stop on fear they
bought him. And I agree with this. And my point
is this, though, Paul, is when you look at where
we are right now, the four year cycle play that
into it, and then you look at the potential around
the macro elements that are also playing into it, because
(10:23):
it's likely we're going to get another seventy five basis
points this year, they could roll this into even more
aggressive next year. Government shutdown is not going to be forever.
It's going to come back, and hopefully this you know,
crypto regulation gets cleared. All those are still very bullish
signs what you're and there's several macro analysts that are
pointing toward an elongated cycle. Would you agree that if
(10:47):
we are pushing and we do, let's say we hit
that one hundred k mark, that ninety seven that you're
kind of pointing to, would you be worried that a
lot of people in the crypto market would say that
was the top up at one twenty six, we're now
in a bear market.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
Definitely.
Speaker 2 (11:04):
I feel like we see that as it is every
day right now. Anytime you get just to push up
to fourteen. Yesterday the eu fourio was kicking back in
for a hot minute, and you dropped it right back
the next day. And then you scan through and everybody's like, oh,
you know, see you at sixty thousand, see you at
thirty thousand. You know all these things right, and people
are giving exact dates. They're thinking that, you know, they
can pinpoint the exact low for bitcoin next year at
(11:25):
November time, and I definitely foresee that that would be
the case. And just to double up on your fear
and greed piece. I don't know if you guys can
see this chart or Okay, I don't have a showing here,
but yeah, I was just going to showcase how even
right now bitcoin trading at one hundred and eight or
nine thousand dollars, the crypto market is in extreme fear
right now. And to Virtual Bacon's point, you know, generally speaking,
(11:48):
we don't see the market top there. Yes, we were
in a little bit more of a neutral area when
we did top at one twenty six, But yeah, I
think that we're in a very similar situation to what
we saw each and every basic side ways piece that
we've seen on Bitcoin, the whole way up from thirty
thousand back in twenty twenty three or four to the
seventy thousand dollars last year, and then even to this
(12:08):
year when we topped off at one hundred and eight
thousand on Inauguration Day. So yeah, I think that it's
definitely setting up for a big surprise if anything.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
All right, Well, one thing to consider is there is
one guy that's very bullish still and that is Tom Lee.
He's calling for an S and P five hundred at
seven thousand, so very very aggressive to get to a
seven thousand by year end. That would change things around.
And again, this is something I've said before. If Tom
Lee is right on these calls, this guy's going to
(12:37):
go down as the most amazing investor call investor call
we've seen, because he's been going against the current, you know,
for quite some time on not only bitcoin but also
of where we're standing on Ethereum. I want to go
to a click a clip real quick, because this is
Mike Novigrat's kind of going the opposite position.
Speaker 5 (12:57):
Take a look the big deal leverageing that happened a
week ago.
Speaker 3 (13:02):
That's not good for markets, right.
Speaker 5 (13:03):
It wiped out a lot of market makers, means less liquidity,
and you can see yesterday we were down and then
up four percent and then right back down, and so
there's a little less liquidity in the market. It took
a lot of retail leverage out of the system, and
so the good news is were less leveraged. The bad
news is when Humpty Dumpty breaks, he doesn't get put
together right away.
Speaker 6 (13:22):
How do you think about it? We've had obviously all
sorts of folks from Tom Ley and others who come
on and said, by the end of the year, we
could be a two hundred fifty thousand dollars for this coin. Obviously,
others like Kathy would have even you know, more aggressive
and optimistic views longer term out But where are you
right this moment?
Speaker 3 (13:39):
Yeah, listen, at the.
Speaker 5 (13:40):
End of the year is only two and a half
months away, and so there would have to be a
heck of a lot of you know, crazy stuff to
really get that kind of momentum. I do think, you know,
we should hold one hundred, you know, one hundred or
somewhere close to that should be the downside. And on
the upside, you know, you don't really accelerate until you
take out one twenty five. And so the most likely
(14:03):
outlook is we're rangy between you know, one hundred and
one twenty one twenty five unless we take out the
top side. We could take out the top side if
you know, the President prematurely makes a move on the FED,
which you know they could, they could target that easily
by the end of the year. And if this bill
gets passed, I mean, those are the two kind of catalysts.
Speaker 1 (14:24):
I see all right, so you can kind of see it.
He's still a little bit more on the bearish side,
kind of counter to what Tom Lee is saying. Then
you have to flip over to the gold market. We
saw the gold market also adjust yesterday. Gold prices fell
almost six percent. This was the largest one day drop
since April of twenty thirteen. We called this out in
(14:45):
our you know video yesterday. This is a sigma move
right now. In other words, a large move only happens
in one out of two hundred and forty thousand days
in a normal world. That's uh, that's an interesting situation.
So MI question is are we rotating? Is there are
there assets that are trying to rotate, even though at
the time maybe it was a short rotation into bitcoin
(15:08):
and then literally taking liquidity right back out of the market.
How did you play gold and bitcoin right now as
a hedge.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
Yeah, so let's take a look at gold.
Speaker 2 (15:20):
Last time I was on I believe it was just
breaking through that like right around the four thousand dollars mark.
But we discussed this one a couple of times. I
think that gold and bitcoin are very very much alike
in the sense of the only thing you can even
compare bitcoin two in this time is gold with the
price action and the things we've seen in history, especially
as we come into some major turning points or events
(15:43):
in you know, our financial history that goes that way.
Usually when we see gold pumping, generally is not a
great sign in the next coming twelve to twenty four months,
because that's generally when people are running away from fiat
currencies are kind of hedging their bets a little bit
ahead of big downturns. But anyways, gold had a huge
break of you know, the previous high here, we ran
it up, you consolidate it, and it was pretty much
just these two areas. I was looking to thirty six
(16:05):
hundred to see if we could hit the brakes at all.
It was just straight through it and then ran up
basically to the next major area here.
Speaker 3 (16:11):
So now we're going to cool off.
Speaker 2 (16:13):
And it was said that in that timeframe you had
the rotation into bitcoin because as in the time we
pulled back on gold like this five almost ten percent,
which is actually pretty massive in that case, is when
bitcoin pushed up to the one fourteen, So yeah, I mean,
is that something, And it was equal eight to ten percent.
Which is interesting is that an even split on you know,
(16:34):
was everybody taking profits out of gold dumping in bitcoin,
Like you said, it was just momentarily almost because bitcoin's
already given up those gains. Personally, I think that this
is just a natural move out of gold. We've you know,
come up into a region of a next major Even
though we're in price discovery, you could still anticipate areas
where you're gonna hit the you know, get a little
cool down. And what you want to see is this
(16:55):
right here where we're actually pulling back, because now you
can actually you know, present new and formation here on
the next legs up. And generally speaking, when you have
a huge move up like this very strong, you can
see we've had no pullbacks basically along the way. You
do pull back to that three eight two, and that's
usually where I look to seek continuation, which is usually
a shallower retlacement. Usually people will look for the gold
(17:16):
pocket or anything like that. This is twenty eight but
this three three a two, what we're coming into right
now is just below four thousand, So it's nice right
under that you know, psychological level where again people are
already starting to kind of get worried that gold may
have topped and everything of that nature. But realistically, to me,
as long as we're holding above this region and even
down to this area, I think that we still have
(17:36):
legs and room to run this back up. The only
thing we may see here is just similar to Bitcoin,
you may get a little bit of a range here.
So to Mike, I think of what Mike Novagrats's point
right there, We're just we've come off of some really
huge moves here, and then I think that's just the
time where we're just going to cool off a bit
before the next legs up.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
But I do anticipate both Gold.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
You know, Gold may not see extreme moves up from
here like ten and twenty thousand dollars, but I think
that we still have legs to the upside. And then Bitcoin,
I think is going to make that next move up
in twenty six as well.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
So in if you were calling twenty twenty six and
let's assume that we don't see massive moves toward the
end of the year, I'll go the my Novogratz side.
Even though I think Tom Lee is intriguing in the
sense that he's still calling for these crazy highs. If
you look into twenty twenty six bitcoin and gold, do
you have any potential projections for those.
Speaker 3 (18:25):
For next year? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (18:26):
For gold, Like again, it's all you know, determined on
how we react right in this region, and I guess
I would start to say that things start to not
look so great as if we come back and get
below thirty six hundred, and at that point I would
say that you probably switch it into a little bit
of a downtrend here.
Speaker 3 (18:43):
But as long as we're.
Speaker 2 (18:43):
Above that, I could see us pushing up to at
least we're going to hit that forty four hundred mark.
I mean, that's a no brainer at this point. But
the way I would look at this too is I
would just take a simple extension right here from that
last impulse move and take it to our high Let's
assume we get a bounce off of this three eight
two around four thousand dollars, and then the next two
that I could see again we'll probably kind of spend
(19:04):
some time here too. I do think maybe the rest
of this year, which again two months from now, not
a lot of time, we probably do cool off a bit,
and then the next leg up I only say into
next year just because we're at a place where, you know,
two months is not a lot of time to just
kind of get eight weeks to see a cool off
after a move like this and then into you know,
the next coming months here push up to forty six
(19:26):
and then ultimately five thousand, I think is a really
big number for gold in the future.
Speaker 1 (19:30):
There, Okay, let's bitcoin, Yeah yeah, hit bitcoin real quick
as far as twenty twenty six is concerned.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
So for bitcoin, the next move I'm looking at at
a bitcoin is assuming that we come down in this
one ninety seven same deal essentially is just really taking
some looks at some just the next jount up. So
taking this huge impulse move, projecting it off of where
we may bottom out at the one sixty mark to
two hundred is my projection for bitcoin in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 3 (20:03):
I just you know, again, I.
Speaker 2 (20:05):
Don't necessarily think we're going to get there this year.
In the next two months, I think we're.
Speaker 3 (20:10):
Going to cool off a bit.
Speaker 2 (20:11):
And then in that same time though, I think that
we have potential for the all coins. If we're going
to have a rotation, I think it might head into bitcoin.
I'm sorry Ethereum and some of the all coins, so
I'm sure we're going to dive into some of those here.
Speaker 1 (20:22):
Yeah, speaking of those, let's talk about Solana real quick.
They've got their Hong Kong approval, so this is the
first spot ETF that is live, so we've got.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
That going on.
Speaker 1 (20:32):
You also look at in general their ETF now is
paying a six to seven percent yield to holder. So
this changes the I think dramatically into how people are
looking at Solana in general. If you look at the
Solana chart right now, where would this be a buye
for Soul if we do go down and what do
(20:54):
you think we're going to see on Solana by year end.
Speaker 3 (20:59):
By year? And let's take a peek.
Speaker 2 (21:01):
So one setup that I've been monitoring for the better
part of this year, so from August of last year
actually and then into April when we had the tariff.
Speaker 3 (21:10):
Bottom brought this up a few.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Times already was this setup where one ninety six was
a crucial level to hold above and we were discussing
how the you know, the SPOTTYTF and some of the
volume that was coming into Solana really added to the
to the idea here that we would see that next
jount up because as long as you're holding above one
ninety six. I imagine that we would push up probability
wise to two seventy four and three twenty three. Only
(21:33):
issue here, technically speaking, is that we've now lost that
one ninety six, not a death sentence by any means,
probably could come back down towards you know, some lower
areas if you're looking for that, you know, like you
just mentioned a by zone, I would say probably back
to like one p fifty on Solana. It's still something
to just kind of be aware of, is that we're
up fifty percent even at that point from earlier this year.
(21:55):
So it's just something that depends on whoever, however your
entry and you know you're investing strat as he goes.
But I still ultimately imagine we're going to see a
push towards this two seventy four and three twenty three
on Solona.
Speaker 3 (22:06):
And I'll go ahead to even just say probably by
the end of the year.
Speaker 2 (22:10):
We'll give it that, you know, the fun two month
marker from here and see how it ends all right.
Speaker 1 (22:14):
There you go, Well, listen, that would be a pretty
significant move for Soul trading at one eighty two right now,
and in general, our our sentiment metrics are not very
positive on Solona right now with money flow coming out,
So that's a big deal. Let's get into further into
this because I want to jump over to Ethereum real quick.
A lot of good news for Ethereum if you think
(22:35):
about it, eth now adoption compounding, you got Shopify now
supporting the stripe rolled out stable coins, Robin Hood's announcing
their Arbitram move with their their l two, You've got
van Ak going in with an ETHERTF for stake, and
you got Walmart saying, hey, that's all right, we're going
to take some Ethereum on this thing in terms of payment.
(22:57):
So very bullish for Ethereum. Why aren't we seeing the
chart move here, Paul? What's going on?
Speaker 2 (23:05):
That's always the question, right, Yeah, So I always point
this out, even with Soilana. Right now, right, we just
got that big ETF news, which you know, it's not
to say that it wouldn't be a bigger ETF if
we got it here in the States, but big news there,
and it seems like nothing kind of came out of
the price action short term. If you think back to
even when we got Ethereum's first news of ETFs and
(23:27):
everything back.
Speaker 3 (23:28):
In twenty four I think it was like baytime.
Speaker 2 (23:30):
That was literally it was slow, and we actually crashed
fifty percent from the high from the day that the
ETF got listed, you know, at some point beforehand, so
you know, it's not always an immediate you know piece
that that that ties in with the technicals there. And
actually I usually go against the herd a little bit
when we hit the big news events, at least the
short term, because a lot of times that occurs.
Speaker 3 (23:50):
But for ETH, I just.
Speaker 2 (23:52):
Wanted to kind of highlight again one of the biggest
reasons that I'm a huge ETH bowl. I wish that
it was a little bit more to tie this into
all the old coins, but unfortunately they don't seem like
they're having the same result. But we had this humongous
this is back from twenty nineteen to twenty twenty five,
huge reversal setup that I've been tracking, or had been tracking,
especially since twenty twenty three. I had targeted the completion
(24:15):
that come in here. So blah blah blah, big big
zone for this to come into again, this is major
time for him. So we're talking ups and downs along
the way. Even since we you know, pushed off that low.
There's been several times where we've seen corrections and everything
along the way, but in this case, we're showcasing ETH
outperforming Bitcoin in the you know, short term. Here the
(24:37):
two major areas I'm looking for, which the big one
being up in this region at point zero six. I'm
targeting for that to continue from where we are to
get to throughout the year of twenty twenty six. So
another reason that twenty twenty six to me has had
some malishists behind it for the crypto market. I don't
imagine that ETH would be the only thing pushing up
if we were. So currently we're bouncing off of some support.
(24:59):
I think that we had some again, we're cooling off
a little bit from that last liquidation piece and have
the room to move back up into this region here.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
So with all the good.
Speaker 2 (25:07):
News around it, I do think that it's something that
will start to click in. And when we look at
the actual ETH chart, I think that we were looking
at this last time, but I cleaned it up so
it's a little bit more just kind of clear, and
this would be how I'd gauge how ETH is going
to be doing for the next few months. Here we
pushed up again off of this really big drop, the
(25:29):
fourteen hundred, and you know the tariff woes earlier this year,
big push up, just similar to what we're looking at
with gold. You have some small pullbacks along the way,
but ultimately it's just a straight line up towards the
all time high. You then pull back to the three
eight to two. So again you know, if you're looking
for a deeper retlacement like that six to one eighth
the gold pocket, at least for now we're holding above it,
and a lot of times you'll seek out that continuation
(25:52):
from there. So we're sitting on that really big level.
I think we discussed thirty three hundred was the big
by zone I would consider back on the last on
the last video, I think we went to thirty four
on the drop, which wasn't the way I drew it up,
so to be fair, I thought we'd go higher first
before we dropped like that. But anyways, we're holding this
level as long as we're above thirty six hundred. I
think we're consolidating here for ethereum, and the push up
(26:13):
and the timing I'm getting off of this, by the way,
is just by measuring out this last impulse again utilizing
some fifth times. It's not perfect, not overly married to it,
but this is what we could see here, these target
areas coming in around this timeframe, so within like the
next ninety days, and it does go up to seven thousand,
but I wouldn't overlook the fifty six hundred, you know,
which would be a great move new all time highs
(26:34):
out of eth and in that time frame, it would
be under the idea that Bitcoin's actually remaining range bound
within that hundred, one hundred and twenty thousand dollars.
Speaker 1 (26:43):
So let's jump over to Avalanche because this is one
that I think a lot of people follow on our channel,
and has Avalanche underperformed on this cycle so far? This
is Emmon talking about the fact that they were up
during this Amazon issue. And if you kind of compare this,
there's the operational status of everyone during the AWS cloud outage,
(27:08):
which is Salona, Avalanche, eh all stayed moderately to high resilience.
What about AVAX right now? Is it underperformed or are
you expecting anything from it?
Speaker 2 (27:21):
So I think that Avalanche, there's many things I feel like,
you know, it's a lot of the all coins have
just been so range bound. And one thing that I
always like to point out, you know, when we hop
on that we have on these collaborations together, Paul, A
lot of times it depends on what's going on the
timing of things, because sometimes you'll hit me with what
would I buy today? Right, And just a few weeks
(27:42):
ago we were trading with Avalanche up here at twenty
seven dollars and it was already up you know, sixty
seven percent of the time. We had that liquidation event
that came down and you could look across and some
you know, well, well many didn't see it coming.
Speaker 3 (27:56):
It's just one of those things. I feel like we
have to always be prepared for this.
Speaker 2 (27:59):
About the third one, and by the way, we've seen
them last year and a half March of last year,
I think that February of this year, and then just
a couple of weeks back and now where you have
those big liquidation events in the all coins. But for Avalanche,
we had this one level down here that I'd marked
out and essentially we left it for this whole time,
and by no means was it something that you could
guarantee we get to. But it's an area you just
(28:20):
if you're looking for those stink bids, or if something
ever crashed, or if you're looking to deploy capital into
something that's already up sixty percent, you's always got to
be aware that we could always come down to these
lower areas. So it's always a good idea. I'm just
kind of rambling here on the little investing strategy. But
if you ever come into something that's already up, even
if we have more upside to go, you can always,
(28:40):
you know, keep a little bit on the side for
those big pullbacks, those big red days, which is what
I always tend to do. But to answer the question
on has Avalanche underperformed, I mean it definitely has in
the case of looking at others in the realm of like, okay,
you know xrps of five hundred percent versus this or whatever.
But overall the whole, I think it looks pretty much
(29:01):
like this. Right, We've pretty much had a nice Bitcoin run.
The all coins as a whole are pretty range bound
at the moment and can see a sizeable move if
we get going here. It just depends on getting out
of here. So we're back in the range yet again,
and just yeah, I still foresee a really decent break
for Avalanche and a move back to some of these
key levels. It's littered with targets above it, and again,
(29:22):
Avalanche is not something that's just there's not something that's
just a run of the mill all coin. This is
something that has real use case utility. It has an
actual product that's online and as you stated, you know
is staying online against the AWS issues. So I think
it's just something that again is just in an accumulation
zone and just got to be patient with it.
Speaker 4 (29:42):
Okay.
Speaker 1 (29:42):
A couple other things I want to get on before
we get out of here is one, of course, Robinhood
just listed B and B, so we saw a pretty
significant downturn on B and B in general after they
flipped XRP in terms of market cap, though XRP now
has clawed its way back with then striking distance again.
If you were looking at B and B, is this
(30:03):
a buy right now? Or would you pass on this one?
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Personally, it's it's it's a pass on to me just
because I don't love if again, if I'm deploying brand
new capital to day, I don't love to chase something
that's basically breaking out into new all time highs. The
only thing about that is a lot of times that
is what gains the momentum though, right, You know, you
could argue the same thing against golden Bitcoin recently, where
if you didn't buy it at the breakout just because
(30:29):
it was the highest thing on the market that day,
you know, you're still lost out on that move. So
it just again comes into your own personal you know,
investing outlook there. But for me, yeah, this is coming
into big, big targets. We got the cool down. And
the only thing about B and B that I will
say is that last you know alt coin rally essentially
so January of twenty twenty one, right before we had
(30:50):
the twenty twenty one you know, huge bull run.
Speaker 3 (30:53):
It was the first mover.
Speaker 2 (30:54):
If I recall could I could be wrong, so I
don't overly quote that, but I am pretty sure this
was one of the first movers and went from like
seven dollars to you know, like seventy really quickly, and
then of course it ran up to seven hundred. And
the reason I remember that is because I remember looking
at it at seven and being like, wow, I missed
one hundred x opportunity if I didn't just go all
in on that.
Speaker 3 (31:11):
Point, but it was a really big mover there as
a starting mover.
Speaker 2 (31:16):
So to see this again basically being you know, one
of the biggest breakouts of an all time high. You know,
we had XRP push up recently, but it's already back
below that all time high. This is the true blue
break that I can think of, at least, or at
least one of them of the big majors that has
broken the all time high and remained above and in
the previous session, that's what initiated that last all coin run.
Speaker 3 (31:37):
So it's interesting.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
I think it does have some more upside ahead of it,
but I would it probably wouldn't be my first choice
because of where it's already at.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Listen, we're talking about trying to rotate into defensive positions.
Some people are kind of going into that. Let me
play a clip for you and then I want to
get your opinion on whether you would hold all coins
right now or try to position out. Take a look.
Speaker 7 (32:00):
Do you have concerns about overconcentration If you really look
at some of the big AI companies, it's about a
third of the market, like the mag seven. Is that
concentration concerning as we still have a lot of their
earnings coming up, including Tesla after the bill.
Speaker 8 (32:11):
Absolutely, and one of the things we do agree is
that the market is expensive, particularly when you look at
those top companies, and so a little rotation taking some
of the money off the top, putting it in some
more defensives is probably a good bed at this point.
Speaker 7 (32:27):
So your word of the day is actually defense. Yes,
so you're saying you want to be defensive, But how
do you get defensive? Is it goal which just had
a big pullback yesterday? Is it bonds? I was actually
talking to a very notable investor. They believe that bonds
are relatively cheap and that it's a short term trade.
Actually you buy the bonds now, and they expect the
par value to go up quite a bit as we
continue to see more economic uncertainty. Which way should you
play defense?
Speaker 8 (32:47):
So for me, I'm talking defense just within the equities world.
I actually I do agree on the fixed income side,
but for here, I'm talking about shifting out of some
of the more expensive high flyers your mag seven and
look at for healthcare telecom specifically to really get a
little more oops as we go into this earning season
(33:07):
and into twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1 (33:10):
All right, So my question here, Paul, is how do
you play defense with crypto if you're looking at the
current market as this is right now, we've got ethan
bitcoin retracing. What are the defensive positions in terms of
tokens during these markets? Staking go the ETF route if
you want exposure top ten, staying there or just piling
(33:33):
into bitcoin and eath.
Speaker 2 (33:37):
You know, the contrarian side of me at the moment,
just because of how beaten down the sentiment is on
all coins and the fact that I think everybody is
just really really a not even just giving up on them,
but afraid of them at this point. And for good measure, Yeah,
I don't know. I just feel like, you know, you
asked if I would hold all coins, and my portfolio
(33:58):
is heavily based within bitcoin, but it's more so ethereum.
As far as the all coin route would go, I'm
probably in the all coin world like ninety percent eth
and then I have ten percent that I do allocate
towards other all coins that you know, can they go
to zero?
Speaker 3 (34:11):
That's just the risk we all take.
Speaker 2 (34:12):
But it's it's just the allocation that you know, I
feel comfortable with and when I look at all coins
and I guess to back it up before get into
the chart here, but the defensive outlook right, it's like
there's nothing that's I guess not to confuse defensive with
safe for some of these aults, because obviously these are
things that we can't really you control one hundred percent.
I would always, you know, immediately, i'd state things such
(34:35):
as you know Ethereum, Solana Avalanche, even XRP Cardono, while
you know, some of those ones have been around for
so long and that's kind of the to me, the
more defensive plays that they've survived already multiple you know,
down poles. Granted, the percentage that they're going to go
down is is still there, so to protect yourself against that.
I feel like bitcoin is always going to be the
(34:56):
main hedge because whatever, you know, Bitcoin's definitely going to
follow the least of the the rest.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Of the market.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
But if you have to be in your all coins,
if you're looking for those, then yeah, I feel like
the safe bet is the top ten or twenty. But
when I look at the alt coin market here, Paul,
I'm gonna be honest with you, there was something I
pointed out a few months back, and it was I
joke about it because it was one of those things
it was before it was cool, which was this cup
and handle, all right, and everybody's pretty familiar with that
(35:21):
where you get the nice rounded shape and you get
the handle here, and then you look for that breakout
and everybody gets really excited. Usually at the breakout, you know,
I'd identified this area when we came back down. This
was again the tariff flows, so that's when I got
the majority of you know, my pickups for this year
at least, and then just looking for the next size
was to get the above that level here. But one
(35:42):
thing that happens at these almost every time that initial
push up is that it always is a fake out.
And what we had right here at the high was
and again for anybody looking at the total two markets,
so this is everything in the market except for bitcoin,
to kind of help to identify which way the all
coins as a whole could go here, And like B
and B and ETH, pushing up twenty and thirty percent
(36:03):
by all means does drag this up alone. But overall
I'd say that if we're holding above this one point
three three trillion for the all coins, I still see
a world where the all coins could see a decent
move up. Now it might not be them all, but yeah,
it's just to me, it's this doesn't look that bad.
And what we had here too at the end here
was a harmonic setup. So again one of those just
(36:26):
Fibonacci just perfectly where we had this old Fibonacci swee
sequence right here. You come up and you fake everybody
out at the high and then right to the target
areas here. So as long as we're holding above here, Paul,
I think that we are still in a good shape
for the overall all coin market to continue up. And
again not to just go on the boat of like
saying twenty twenty six and it's a super cycle or
(36:50):
anything like that. It's just looking at the information at
hand here, that's just where we're steamrolling into. And for me,
with the twenty year cycle that I've been you know,
basically on about for a long time, that completion zone
of all markets that I've kind of targeted comes right
in line with the end of next year, aka the
beginning of twenty twenty seven, you know, is really big
for me. So I really think that we have the
(37:11):
opportunity here to just if people can be patient and
kind of see how things shake out here, that the
market actually may surprise us going into the next few months.
Speaker 1 (37:19):
Well, we're looking at current market cap at three point
six trillion. You've got fear and greed holding at twenty
nine right now, So to your point, earlier definitely much lower,
and then all coin season way low on the chart
again at twenty seven. So to your point, there interesting
(37:39):
interesting times guys we have with in reality. I mean,
there's still so much bullish news, but at the same time,
there's so many headwinds coming from the macro side. I
feel like it needates that and unfortunately negative news, you
almost need double the positive news to kind of offset
negative news because it's people I think in general are
pessimistic by nature.
Speaker 3 (37:59):
I agree, instead of possaging and.
Speaker 1 (38:01):
Are trying to look at this on a bigger picture. Hey, listen,
it's always fun having you on the show. We'll definitely
have you back. Thanks for coming in today.
Speaker 3 (38:09):
We appreciate it. Paul. Thanks, Paul, have a good one,
all right, see.
Speaker 1 (38:12):
You you guys jump in on our diamond circle. That's
where we do an additional email out to you guys.
It kind of gives you a framework of what I'm
looking at in the markets. I do it every week
to you. It's called the Baron Market Edge. You can
join that just by clicking the link down below. Catch
me out there on TikTok at Official Paul Baron. We'll
catch you next time right here on The Paul Baron
Show
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!