Crypto Market Bloodbath🚨Crash Update 📉

Total crypto trading volume is up slightly at $178.5 billion, but price action remains largely negative across major assets.

~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~
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00:00 Intro
00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital
00:30 WW3 FUD?
01:00 Government Shutdown odds increase
01:20 Get ready for job cuts
02:30 Job losses
03:20 Trump wants the shutdown
04:30 Tax credit debate
05:40 Looking frothy
06:15 Diamond Circle
06:44 Bitcoin $100k soon?
07:30 ETH under $4k
08:20 CNBC: Reset good for market
09:55 Trump corruption: $WLFI
10:30 Good news, bad news
11:15 Raoul Pal: Elongated business cycle
13:00 Outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum 
~Crypto Market Bloodbath🚨Crash Update 📉`
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
A market blood path is underway today. We'll break it
down for you what is causing all of this distress.
My name is Paul Barren. Welcome back into the show.
I want to thank our sponsor, and that is I
trust Capital. You guys can get over and get into
long term holding, which is what you should be doing
in things in times like right now, and look at
IRAS and of course you guys can do this with
both crypto.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
You can do gold and silver. All of that set
it up.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
It's a great tax benefit obviously to seek out your
own tax advice.

Speaker 2 (00:27):
But use our link down below.

Speaker 1 (00:28):
It's going to give you one hundred dollars funding reward
to get started and get underway, so use that.

Speaker 2 (00:34):
Let's go over to this first tweet. This of course
came out. This was from CNN.

Speaker 1 (00:37):
I'm not sure to what extent is the reporting is
very spotty right now. It is that the US deployed
jets against Russian Brahmers, supposedly in Alaskan airspace. I don't
know if this is the case. It is possible that
the markets could be spooped because of this. I don't
necessarily think that is the case. I think we're dealing
more with a cycle thing right now. If you look

(00:58):
at the government shutdown potentially as another possibly catalyst for
what we're seeing in the market right now, this is
now at a seventy five percent chance after yesterday we
did a video on this and a breakdown on this.

Speaker 2 (01:11):
Trump.

Speaker 1 (01:12):
Of course, he doesn't appear to be interested in negotiations,
so likely as we might get a day or two
or possibly more, they could play into this shutdown. The
other thing is job cuts, and I want to go
to a clip real quick because this will get us
into a framework of how this economy is doing.

Speaker 2 (01:27):
Take a look.

Speaker 3 (01:28):
Now. This marks a significant escalation in rhetoric and threat
from the Trump administration because normally we see those non
essential government workers fur looad but then brought back with backpay. Instead,
we're seeing this memo from the OMB which is directing
agencies to come up with a list of workers who
activities are not paid for a via mandatory funds or
any new funding from the One Big, Beautiful Bill, as

(01:51):
well as to make a list of programs deemed inconsistent
with the President's priorities. And these are the areas that
could be on the chopping block. No OMB did not
provide additional details. We don't know how big these layoffs
could be, but it's important context to keep in mind.
That's six out of ten federal workers are typically deemed
essential during shutdowns, which means that they keep working well.

(02:11):
Four out of ten are told to basically stand by
until Congress reopens the government. So of course this could
have some very big economic implications here, Vonnie. But just
for an update on how these negotiations are going, They're
not going too well.

Speaker 1 (02:25):
So this coming from the government job side of thing.
Then you look at the most recent report. Jobless claims
drop two hundred and eighteen thousand this week. Sounds great,
you know, I put this tweet out, but there is
some catch here. Last week's numbers were quietly reved revised higher.
This gets me back to the point of can we
even trust this data yet or ever?

Speaker 2 (02:45):
I don't know.

Speaker 1 (02:46):
I still think it's bullish for markets in general long term,
But this happens all the time economic data, initial reports grab.

Speaker 2 (02:53):
Headlines, blah blah blah. You get the point here.

Speaker 1 (02:56):
This was the kind of the situation right there on
Reuter's they were just saying that jobless claims are falling
but labor market is softening, and I still think that
is the bigger picture here is that labor markets are
still very, very soft, and that we'll go into the
Q four with a very soft labor market, which will
put a lot of pressure I think on performance earnings

(03:17):
as well as just in general the markets. Now, I
want to go into this other thing that goes back
to the shutdown potential, and this was in reference to
how Trump was responding to it.

Speaker 2 (03:28):
Take a look, so why I think we're in for
a shutdown but not.

Speaker 4 (03:31):
Along There is at least a theory that the White
House is hoping for this shutdown.

Speaker 5 (03:37):
Those earlier this year, and we know that the calculation
is Schumer made earlier this year. Part of the reason
that he didn't fight through was because he was worried
about federal workers. Yes, he's ready worried about the president's
ability to kind of impound funds. If you will pick
and choose what's essential for the government when.

Speaker 4 (03:55):
The threat could actually be greater. Now do you buy
into this theory? Terry? The trumpet been stration is now
in control of what is essential and what is not,
and we'll use that power in a way that we've
not seen before.

Speaker 1 (04:05):
Yeah, I think yeah, I think both of those are true.

Speaker 6 (04:07):
Frankly, they have things that they want to roll out
and things that they want to test.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
All right, So you can see there's a lot of
mixed feelings I think around the government shut down, how
much of an impact it will have on markets, but
more importantly, how much it's going to have an impact
on DC and in tradition government jobs that applied into this.
I want to go also into tax credits because this
is another factor that comes into a bigger, broader impact

(04:35):
on markets.

Speaker 2 (04:35):
Let's take a look at this clip. Would it be
possible just to get what you want?

Speaker 7 (04:40):
Because I know that Senator Johnson is probably he doesn't
even want to do.

Speaker 2 (04:43):
This, but others are ready to do it. They just
don't want to get taken to the cleaners with a
bunch of other things.

Speaker 8 (04:50):
I think it's a bigger problem that you're not anolging.
The problem is not that we can't find a solution
to this. The problem is that the leadership is not
going to the take and sitting down and negotiating. Because
if they negotiated, we could find a way to deal
with this. We have Republicans who are interested in extending

(05:10):
the premium tax credits, and the president should recognize that
even his own pollsters say that we don't extend these
tax credits, the GOP is going to pay at the
polls next year.

Speaker 2 (05:21):
You're going to shut the government shut.

Speaker 8 (05:23):
Everybody needs to stop the kabuki theater and go to
the table and negotiate.

Speaker 1 (05:28):
That's the only way it's going to get done is
I think through negotiations. The impact on the market, it's
pretty dire breaking.

Speaker 2 (05:36):
Right now.

Speaker 1 (05:37):
US stock market futures into a three day loss, down
two percent after obviously we saw Powell pushing back on
the rate cut hopes, which is the problem. I think
that also could be playing into this. And you can
kind of see the US five hundred, the US Tech
one hundred, everything was down considerably, including the small cap
two thousand.

Speaker 2 (05:56):
So this is another factor that plays into this.

Speaker 1 (05:59):
The SMP has his historically been expensive based on valuation
metrics before anyway, so that's another thing that could be
pulling off, is that the market has been too frothy.
There is some adjustment here going forward. Now we'll get
into bitcoin here in a second, but I do want
to remind everybody if you guys are not part of
our Forge membership, make sure and get in on that.
You guys can just visit our website, click on the

(06:21):
top banner, you know, just take you over to memberships
right there. What you get there is our barent brief,
that's an email, and get into our BCI, which is
our fifty tokens that we follow very closely, a little
bit on our own portfolio, and then all sorts of tools,
including our indicators, so check it out.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
Plus you get in on our Telegram group over there.

Speaker 1 (06:41):
Now let's talk about bitcoin, because bitcoin is another factor here.
We're seeing it start to adjust. Now is under a
one hundred k bitcoin in the cards?

Speaker 2 (06:52):
Here's the ETFs.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Now entering a little bit of a slowdown face, and
I think a lot of people are now starting to
look at maybe an under nigh position. The slowdown spot
bitcoin ETF signals again against institutional demands.

Speaker 2 (07:06):
So this is a factor.

Speaker 1 (07:07):
One eight is the short term target for bears, and
there are some analysts predicting a drop to ninety k.
I don't know if ninety is in the cards, but
it would be a significant pullback and that of course
would wreck the all coin market dramatically. The question would
be is how would Bitcoin come out of that, and
would that pretty much cancel the all coin market.

Speaker 2 (07:28):
I think there's a lot to look at.

Speaker 1 (07:30):
Leading the all coin market typically has always been ethereum,
and Ethereum now has fallen below four thousand for the
first time in six weeks. I'm not necessarily worried about
this just yet, but there are some key points of
where ETH could go that could concern me. So again,
if you're not in a force membership, because we talk
about those things all the time in there. Blackrock has

(07:53):
sold two twenty five thousand, six hundred in ETH today
and now institutions are wanting to lower entry on eath.
Maybe this is a bigger play toward, you know, ideas
around manipulation. Everybody's looking at all sorts of things, you know,
shut down issues globally, what we're dealing with on the
EUU front, and now what we're dealing with in terms

(08:15):
of maybe even market manipulation around some of these major tokens.
For sure, now is a reset good for the market. Well,
this clip will explain a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (08:25):
Take a look.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
You really shouldn't short an overbought market.

Speaker 8 (08:29):
That's usually get your butt handed to you.

Speaker 7 (08:32):
That's right. I always caution against shortening anything that's at
or near all time highs. I think that's really not
advisable to anyone because it means there's no resistance on
the charts. The positive momentum is there, and of course
we do have that for the major indices. But listen,
I mean, we've avoided the seasonal pullback so far.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
Will we avoid it?

Speaker 7 (08:52):
I think not probably, but you don't have the indications yet.

Speaker 2 (08:56):
I think between now and mid October.

Speaker 8 (08:58):
We will see.

Speaker 7 (08:58):
That's very natural. Usually you see it towards the end
of September, and wouldn't that be a great reset for
the market. I mean, if you look around, especially in
the AI names, it's extremely overextended in its appearance. Overbought's
not a bad thing. That's the reflection of momentum. It's
when you see that overbought reading give way to downturns,
and you can simply follow that using stochastics or RSIs

(09:22):
and you'll see it on a broad basis. I think,
you know, we moved to a Barriss short term bias
this week in our research for bitcoin, but it's within
the context of an intermediate term range that follows a
long term breakout.

Speaker 2 (09:36):
All right, so we are there.

Speaker 1 (09:37):
What we're talking about is the seasonal market structure resets,
and maybe this is basically just going and following the
plan in terms of the size and I think the
alignment of where the market is timing wise.

Speaker 2 (09:53):
Now, there are some other things.

Speaker 1 (09:54):
That play into this, and one of them is always
the pressure on Trump's administration. Well, Senator Warren continues to
do that, calling for investigations against President Trump's family over
foreign crypto deals.

Speaker 2 (10:05):
This, of course is all relating to World Liberty five.

Speaker 1 (10:07):
But at the same time, on the same day, World
Liberty five gets listed by Robin Hood and of course
we see an immediate.

Speaker 2 (10:15):
Impact from that as well.

Speaker 1 (10:16):
So I don't know, this is a very unusual setup
for going into what could be a blowof top but
also could be an extension in this market, and I
think that's something to kind of take a look at.
Here was a tweet by ionic XBT and he hits
on a couple of points kind of a good news
bad news concept. This will be the final crypto cycle.
That's I guess that's bad news in terms of parabolic moves. Okay,

(10:41):
so if you've been in cryptocycles in the past, parabolic moves.

Speaker 2 (10:44):
That's why you're here. If you're brand new.

Speaker 1 (10:46):
To crypto, a thirty percent move might be parabolic to you.
But in reality, we've seen hundreds of percentage moves, thousands
of percentage moves in the past, So that's a factor
that could be happening. And Q four and all, so
Q one of twenty twenty six could be the zone
of peak euphoria, So that could be the cycle ending,

(11:07):
and it could push past the end of this year,
which would definitely be outside of the four year cycle,
especially when we look at bitcoin having as kind of
being the indicator there. Raoul Powell, who's been on our
show before, has kind of talked about this a little bit.
He goes on in this video to talk a little
bit more about this elongated cycle though. So it's an

(11:27):
interesting take.

Speaker 2 (11:28):
Take a look.

Speaker 6 (11:29):
Remember we've always said it's the business cycle, stupid. It
is always the business cycle stupid. And all of these
people who claim it's the four year cycle based around
this and that they don't understand the fundamental of what
the business cycle is. You see, rates should have come lower,
they need to come lower because rates are so high
has meant that Main Street has been screwed while Wall

(11:51):
streets made money from debasement earnings. That's the scarce assets.
This is the issue that they need to sow and
they need to get rates lower. Why do we have
an elongated business cycle that looks like virtually no other
real other time? Is that in twenty twenty one twenty
two that actually extended the maturity of the debt from

(12:11):
four years to five years. So that extension of the
maturity of debt has pushed out the business cycle a year.
The four year cycle this time around is a five
year cycle. We don't know what the next one will
be until we see where they all get end up
getting refinanced. And it tells us the m should peak
by twenty twenty six. We think liquidity probably peaks before that,

(12:36):
as the rate of change of ism changes and the
rate of change liquidity changes. Our best guess remains well
into twenty twenty six, probably Q two.

Speaker 1 (12:47):
All right, So there you have it. So it is
pushing it out a little bit. This could mean that
we're just in late stage. If you think about what
Tom Lee has talked about, he still looks at end
of year the last point I would say is that
would help the market is if we see the turn
on job numbers coming back, if that all comes in.
And I know a lot of things in the pipe

(13:08):
there in terms of potential, but those are the things
we're watching. Hey, listen, that's why you guys follow this channel.
So again, if you're not in the Diamond circle, get
in right now. It's a free list to join, very easy.
We've sent out an email every week, so it's super
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that if you're brand new to crypto, definitely worth it.
Follow me out there on X just that Paul Baron,

(13:30):
and of course we'll catch you next time right here
on The Paul Baron Show.