Crypto PANIC Selling!🔥Market Update🚨

Bitcoin and the wider crypto market have dropped sharply, reigniting bitcoin crash fears as a nightmare seems to be coming true.

~This Episode is Sponsored By Coinbase~
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00:00 Intro
00:10 Crypto collapsing
00:30 DATs be selling
01:00 Tom Lee next?
01:40 Sponsor: Coinbase
02:30 Education Department restructuring
03:20 S&P sell off
04:20 NVIDIA earnings takeaway
06:10 Ray Dalio: AI Bubble fears
08:30 Bloomberg: Fed narrative shift vs AI bubble
10:00 September jobs
11:00 Bloomberg: We need rate cut despite jobs data
12:50 Surprise rate cut?
13:45 CNBC: 2025 retail holiday outlook
16:10 BTC hits its most bearish levels
16:50 Crypto catalyst fail
18:00 Hopium rally soon?
19:00 $SOL & $XRP chart
20:00 Outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~Crypto PANIC Selling!🔥Market Update🚨~
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Panic selling in the market has started, and today will
break it down for you. Where is the market going. Well,
if you take a look at the charts, things are
not looking good for bitcoin right now, as we are
trading at eighty six' four at time of filming after
several multiple days on a downward, trend and current sentiment
right now not looking good On bitcoin or the crypto

(00:22):
markets in. General one thing to consider is whether or
not we're starting to see a crypto contagion with eth
falling below twenty nine. Hundred all, Right so when you
look at one other factor that plays into this is
the digital asset. Treasuries, this of, course is kind of
talking about it right here is where they are. Unwinding
many people are kind of pushing back on. That why
do these dats need to sell or buyback shares When

(00:43):
Michael saylor doesn't have. To he doesn't need to yet
if he gets too, bad he will have. To that's
the real question that everybody's asking because we are looking
at some severe pain within these digital asset. Treasuries one of,
course is the Infamous Tom lee starting to take on
a certain amount of pain right, there and if this
continues for. Ethereum if we do see it continue to

(01:05):
push down and we do enter a true bear, market
how does this portray on strategy at least for how
these dats will start to move. FORWARD i think this
is the factor that everybody needs to consider right. NOW
i would say, that first of, ALL i don't think they're,
ponzis BUT i do think that they need to have
a strategy that has something more than just holding an.
Asset and everybody's talked about. This we've had several on

(01:28):
our show that have talked about, this is that multiple
strategies for income producing within these treasury, companies in many
cases they don't even call them treasury. Companies those are
the ones to be on the lookout if you're going that.
Direction other news you had back loans now on coinbase
starting to move you can now use your eth as
collateral to BAR usdc and a lot of people might be, saying,
Well i'm going to wait for ethereum to get into

(01:50):
a position where it could, bounce and that is a
loan entry. Position if you guys want to do, that of,
course you can jump over to coinbase dot. Com sign
up there our. Link it's just really. Easy click that
down below and let me know what you guys. Think
are you doing any kind of crypto loans as the
market starts to come, down because this as the market
starts to move in a downward, direction is that the

(02:12):
time for you to maybe look long term because a
lot of people have these horizons that are, three, five
seven years. Out do you Think ethereum is going to
be up in three? Years do you Think ethereum is
going to be up in five? YEARS i think you
might agree with.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
Me.

Speaker 1 (02:26):
Yes other things that are going on right, NOW i
want to go to this headline real quick because this
gets into some kind of the macro side of what's
going on within the. Administration The Education department is, restructuring
but it doesn't involve student, debt and this is a
problem because if you look at one of the things
that they're focusing on in this, article they're attempting to
hollow out THE Us department Of, education and a couple

(02:50):
of points within this student loan borrowers have faced even
more problems in the private. Market so if they end
up taking that student loan debt and doing something in
the private, market this could be a big problem going,
forward not only for the. Administration BUT i think from
an economic, standpoint a big hit overall Because borrows saw
their complete debt balloon with no end in sight due

(03:13):
to a lot of loan. Mismanagement so not a good
sign right now when it comes to student loans and
The department Of. Education with that, happening one thing that
you kind of have to consider is that what caused
THE S andp to take a massive rally Down this
two and a half percent in eighty, minutes, guys not
normal for THE s AND p five. Hundred if we

(03:36):
have that occurring with what's going on in The department
Of education and the restructuring of some of these major government,
facilities what happens when we start to float around the
issue of, healthcare because that's one of the biggest issues
THAT i think is facing our administration right. Now and
remember that healthcare was kind of dangled out there By
Mike johnson during the closure of the government and they

(03:57):
still have another closure coming up very soon that's going
to have to handle a. Reopening and That republicans were
the ones that say we have a, plan or we
have the ability to talk about a. PLAN i don't
think any of that has actually. Occurred so, again just
to kicking the can down the, road this is not
bullish for any of the, markets AND i think they're
starting to show. That one thing that is bullish, though

(04:18):
is in video reports fifty seven billion in. Revenue this
is higher than expectations kind of had. It this was
a great meme right. There and that's WHAT i feel
like is that right Now jensen is definitely protecting the
entire economy because it is one that is starting to
get a little bit edgy in the overall. Markets big
tech firms rise after In vidia's results ease fears of
THEIR ai. Bubble AND i don't, know do you guys

(04:39):
believe or which side do you fall? On do you
fall on THE ai bubble camp that this is, overbought over,
sold or do you rely on That, no this is
an up only. Trajectory there's a lot of analysts out
there right now and a lot of INVESTORS i know
that are very very pro. Now granted their time horizon is, three,
five seven. Years and if that is the, case if

(05:02):
you're thinking whether It's, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, apple all of
those starting to move, up if that's the, case then
maybe this is the trade for. You, Guys nvidia earnings
takeaways was really a concern because a lot of people
were concerned about not only the issue With, china but
also this kind of circular motion of where one company

(05:25):
gives loans to another to buy their. Product this has
been done before in, industry but it's kind of interesting
because it does hit a little bit closer to. Home
there's been a lot of talk about the. Bubble wong,
said from our, vantage we see something very, different and
he should say that this, is of, Course bernstein saying
that perhaps THE ai trade is not dead yet other

(05:45):
things that are being looked at right. Now the company
has orders of five hundred billion IN ai chips for
twenty five and, six so, again this may take some
time to unwind a lot of these data centers that
we're going to continue to contribute to the, economy a
lot of these orders that have already been somewhat paid
for at least booked in terms of, revenue AND i
think this will be the thing to watch as we

(06:08):
start to see all of this go into twenty twenty. Six,
Now Ray dalio, says maybe there's a different angle on.
This listen to this.

Speaker 3 (06:15):
CLIP i think the real issue is who owns the?
Stock is it in strong? Hands not just one? Stock
isn't it?

Speaker 4 (06:26):
Amazing we're talking about one stock for the stock market,
bubble and we're talking about for the economy. Bubble so
you have such a small percentage of the, economy such
a small percentage of The american population in terms of
wealth and so, on, concentrated so, concentrated and everybody in,

(06:47):
it and in a leveraged, way in various, ways it has.

Speaker 5 (06:51):
Leveraged what are strong? Hands how would you define?

Speaker 3 (06:55):
That weekends would be the?

Speaker 5 (06:57):
Public so retail investors are weekend right strong hands the
owners of these companies.

Speaker 4 (07:03):
The right in other, words strong hands is that they
primarily invest their own.

Speaker 3 (07:09):
Money, there you don't have public.

Speaker 4 (07:12):
Right the weekends is largely let's, say a leveraged public
and all united about.

Speaker 3 (07:18):
That that's one of the key ingredients of a. Bubble
so it's not just.

Speaker 4 (07:23):
Pricing wealth can't be spent in order to in order
to get.

Speaker 3 (07:29):
Money you have to sell wealth in.

Speaker 4 (07:32):
Order to get cash to get the money to buy,
things and so when that, happens bubbles. Burst so bubble
bursting means let's, say a tightening a monetary policy is,
classic but also something like wealth taxes can, happen.

Speaker 1 (07:48):
All, Right So dalio hitting on a few points, THERE
i think he is. Right is that With nvidia right,
now which is dictating the, market the real question is
the stock in the right hands in terms of long
term of the Analyst i'm talking, to everybody is still
very PRO ai seeing this as a long term, trade

(08:08):
AND i think the real question is is what is
that Split if we see more retail and we are
starting to see a little bit more of a crack
in the, economy could we see retail finally in a
position where they might, say, hey, Listen i'm gonna unwind this.
Trade THAT i think gets into this whole issue around THE,
fed because this is another factor that plays into. It
here's A bloomberg analysts take a look.

Speaker 6 (08:29):
That the temporary pullback in stocks is not the bursting
of THE ali. Bubble we expect THE ai bubble to
inflate significantly further into twenty twenty. Six we don't know
the exact timeline of when it's going to, burst but
it does not appear we're close to bursting. Yet if
we don't get A fed cut In, december is that a?

Speaker 3 (08:45):
PROBLEM i don't think.

Speaker 6 (08:46):
It's a, problem first of, all because they Won't they
won't cut.

Speaker 3 (08:52):
Unless you know it's clear to the.

Speaker 6 (08:53):
Nature i'm not convinced that it's obvious they need to
at some. Point, obviously when THE us economy slows down,
hard they're going to cut super. AGGRESSIVELY i don't think
they need to be going for a preemptive cut, now
AND i don't think THE us economy is careening off
a cliff edge just, yet so THEREFORE i.

Speaker 3 (09:08):
Don't think they should be cut and. CUTTING i don't
think it's a.

Speaker 6 (09:10):
Problem one of the things that fueling valuations is that
we are always Under trump administration going to get fed
policy which is too easy for the economic fundamentals based
on orthodox economic, policy and that it helps asset.

Speaker 3 (09:24):
Prices but THE ai bubble.

Speaker 6 (09:26):
Is its own theme and it's more, dominant and we're
at the inflation stage of incredible kapex, spending which benefits
some of the big names out.

Speaker 1 (09:34):
There all, Right so there you, go. Guys this is
getting very dicey BECAUSE i think you look at what
THE ai bubble could comprise of is a lot of
major companies that apply into this and this EVEN i
think bleed over into stocks Like. Tasla, obviously what's happening
With meta and of course Even google And alphabet to

(09:55):
a certain. Extent the other things you have to kind
of consider is how is the economy? Doing are usually
the number one indicator for. THAT Us Department later Finally
labor finally published Their september jobs, data and this was
a little bit surprising because it's up and this uptick
of one hundred nineteen thousand non farm payroll, jobs this
was adding fifty thousand above, expectations was a good. Indicator

(10:18):
the real question is is will this lighten the load
for THE fed on them be able to do a
cut In, december if in fact that they do do
a cut In, December and, THAT i think is the
real question that everybody's. Asking i'll show you a poly
market on that. Here in a, Second Charlie blello basically
said total number of jobs on THE us increased by
point eight over the past, year slowest growth since twenty,

(10:38):
one but in the past fifty. Years this is the
type of weakness in the jobs market that has preceded
recessions and a spike in the unemployment rate one hundred
percent at the Time this is the problem that we
are looking at right, now is unemployment if we continue
to see, this because this might be one of those
things where you just get a small move and we
still have a downward. Trend remember we had not collecting

(11:00):
data for almost fifty, days so all of that playing
into where we are. NOW i want to go over
to another one because this is whether or not we
need a rate cut despite this kind of good data
coming out of THE. Bls take a.

Speaker 2 (11:15):
Look is it strong enough that it doesn't need assistance
from The? Fed, WELL i think The president has been
pretty clear on this. Issue we did see the two rate.
CUTS i think The fed does need to go ahead
and cut. Again you, know WHEN i travel around the
country talking to, businesses WHICH i have hit thirty six
out of fifty states on my fifty state tour before

(11:37):
you know The democratic shutdown, happened those business owners are
wanting to borrow more money at a cheaper rate to
invest in their. Workforce that is what they're, asking and
SO i think another rate cut is exactly what we
need to really grow this. WORKFORCE i, mean we SEE
gdp is up four point two. PERCENT i think that
that's positive growth and we want to see more private

(11:59):
sector jobs to come. Online out of the one hundred
and nineteen thousand jobs we, saw ninety seven thousand of
those jobs have been in the private, sector which is
way different than The biden administration when we saw they
were all government. Jobs SO i think we're on the right,
track all.

Speaker 1 (12:13):
RIGHT i think this is a very critical, time. Guys
we are dealing with a unique position in a market
that has been somewhat depressed, overall inflation continuing to, rise
AND i would agree with The department of or The
department Of business, there and that is around how businesses
are looking at growing and most of them are in
most cases looking at try to add. Capital and the

(12:35):
way you add capital typically it's taking, loans but you
want to do it when loan rates are much. Lower
and that's what we're. Seeing it's What i'm seeing out
there within a lot of the people that we're having
discussions with all the, time is these small businesses want
this to be able to, grow and this is a
factor that plays out. Here you, go let's take a
look At. Polymarket polymarket of course drove way up here

(12:58):
to a no change at seventy six percent and then
had a bit of a, reversal possibly due to this job's,
data maybe down to sixty. Three the real question is
is do we get the quarter coming? Up because there's
the quarter coming up to thirty six percent after dropping
down to twenty. Two so getting very erratic right, now

(13:19):
as many of the market makers do not really understand
where this is. Going Anthony, pompiano we're in a generational
bull market because our central bank and politicians can never
stop printing. Money and this is eventually going to be
the case again WITH. Qe it is, coming. GUYS fiat
is definitely not necessarily the angle. Here you know what
to do in terms of how do you protect against?

(13:42):
This other points THAT i want to kind of hit
on is how does this play out into the retail?
Holiday because there's two things that will give the economy
at least a feeling as though the market is starting
to turn around or at least the inflation numbers and
the economy is starting to turn, around and that is
the holiday. Period usually it's going to be in retail

(14:02):
sales or it's just in consumer. Sentiment take a look
at this.

Speaker 7 (14:05):
Clip, now the do wo have a different expectation Than
lawrence about when consumers will shop specifically fifteen times Between
november And. January and this is based on a survey
That cole's did last year about the average number of
store trips that shoppers took during the holiday season trips
not just buying, online not just buying on life source on.

Speaker 5 (14:27):
Average my, guess based on what you just told, us
is that this holiday season is going to be a
pretty good season for the shoppers because they're not worried about.
Inventory they have a lot of, it and they are reading. That,
oh shoppers are responding to, bargains which basically means shoppers
are training them into putting sales back.

Speaker 7 (14:45):
On he, said if we were on the same promotion
this year that we ran last, year we're getting a
higher take. Rate is that maybe they'll run that, promotion
but maybe it'll be for four days instead of ten,
days or maybe it'll be on a specific item in
a brand but not the entire brand.

Speaker 1 (15:01):
Itself, YEAH i don't know about that data Because I'm
i'm talking to a lot of CEOs with national chains
and they're telling me that the number of foot traffic
visits they're getting is dropped off dramatically over the past ninety,
days and this is starting to become a waterfall effect
into the end of the. Year is the real. Question

(15:22):
if you look at some of the publicly traded restaurant
brands and chains out, there you've seen a massive fall
off in places Like chipotle and many others as almost
looks as bad as the crypto market in terms of
how these stocks are. Performing and you look at that,
indicator which usually is an indicator to, RETAIL i think
retail is going to have to get very aggressive on

(15:43):
pricing to be able to lure buyers in and that
is going to translate into lower numbers for these publicly traded,
companies MEANING q one performance is not going to look
good as well AS q four performance in terms of.
Profits so be on the lookout for that because, that
of course translates to a lot of the investments on
the traditional, market which translates into how they play that

(16:06):
into risk. Markets bitcoin hits its most bearish levels in
the bull cycle and has it, ended, Guys let me
know if what you guys. Think treasury companies have basically
stopped buying some have actually even sold part of their.
Holdings this is something that will be a usually an
indicator that we have pretty much hit the end of the.
Cycle what would be a catalyst strong enough to accelerate

(16:28):
bitcoin in the demand major developments seem off the. Cards
you can see this with The Strategic, Reserve Clarity act
has been moved. Back and remember we did a whole
video on this that WAS i think there was like
ten to twelve catalysts that had to occur for it
to move the market. Upwards here was the. Video this
was our time codes on, it And i'll kind of

(16:50):
hit on some of these. Catalysts for the bull, run shut, down,
uncertainty it had to be able to end at a certain.
Time it. Didn't we also had to get at least
a win by The, dems and of course that was
a question. Mark then of course you've dealt with the healthcare,
crisis which still has not been. Resolved then we get
into the situation around The Clarity. Act you also look

(17:11):
at consumers under, pressure no real relief in, sight and
then of course you've got tariff deal catalysts would that?
Happen no real news on. That then you're dealing with quantitative.
Easing we've seen at least quantitative tightening indicated as when
it's going to, start but we haven't seen any word
of how easing THE fed balance is going to. Change
and then of course you're dealing with things Like Clarity,

(17:33):
act which has clearly been moved now into twenty twenty.
Six the One i'm watching right now is we cannot
have a delay on The eth. Upgrade if we have
a delay on The ether upgrade moving Into, december that
could be bad for ethereum in. General so, FAR ai
And nvidia has been the only thing that has been
holding this market. Up and even to that, effect we

(17:55):
still had a two hund half PERCENT s AND p
five hundred sell off in a very short period of.
Time so times are looking pretty interesting right. Now this
was a pull we did over on x and the
question was if bitcoin rallies back to one hundred, K
i will do, This And i'm holding a bitcoin. Bag
EITHER i would dump my, bag dump half my, bag

(18:16):
or wait for an all time. High that's what basically
the audience is, saying is that they're waiting for an
all time. High if you compare this to the twenty
one fall off after the all time, high that was
a fifty two percent down trend to the bottom of
that little bit of a. Loop and this occurred right
there In february of twenty.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
Two, okay and if.

Speaker 1 (18:37):
You, say all, right, well that is the relief rally
potential coming out of that if you were able to
hold that. Long if you did and you bought that
bottom or held through, it that was your percentage right,
there forty one percent in the short relief rally before
we started to go into the bear. Market let's take
a quick look at other tokens that could be in
that same, boat and, this of course Is salona during

(18:59):
that range eighty four percent on the relief rally before
it started to move. Down obviously that was a more
of AN ftx, scare but EVEN xrp which is now
trading below two dollars for the first time in a long,
time well since last. Year and if you look back
on that period of, time you saw the bump that
we saw In april of twenty twenty, one that going

(19:19):
down to the bottom In july of twenty twenty, one
which was preceding The bitcoin all time, high and then
a skyrocket in its relief rally to the, high which
was one hundred and twenty five. Percent so these are
similar times AND i think that would be a. Comparison
if you do have a handful of, tokens the real
question is do you weather through this storm and hold

(19:43):
them or do you take? Profits BECAUSE i think a
lot of people are in that position right. Now or
maybe you're in a position where you've had a lot
of gains on one token like a bitcoin or an
ethereum or AN, xrp and you already have taken profits
and now you're trying to figure out whether or not
you position in to a tax position of maybe dealing
with tax losses and tax harvesting. Strategies so there's a

(20:06):
lot of things that you could go with between now
and the end of the. Year of, course all of this.
DEPENDS i think the big catalysts will come On december the,
tenth and that is whether or not we get A
fed rate, Cut so you, guys make sure and watch for.
That we will probably be doing that live for. You
make sure that you're in the diamond. Circle very easy
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(20:26):
Below it's absolutely. Free hit me out there on x
At Paul. Baron we'll catch you next time right here
On The Paul Baron. Show