Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Eth getting ready to hit an all time high. We'll
take a look at fed rate cuts. It's going to
be a banger. My name is Paul Barrew. Welcome back
into the show. I do want to thank our sponsor
today and that is Coinbase.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
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Speaker 2 (00:38):
Use our link.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
It does help the channel. Let's get into a couple
of points right now. Of course, the biggest issue is
the fed rate cup. If you take a look at
polymarket right now, holding at eighty eight percent right now,
this is insane for the potential around the September rate cut.
Even though I'm still anticipating that we may get a surprise,
and people are now starting to act actually talk about
(01:01):
that surprise, and that would mean a fifty basis points cut. Now,
if you guys remember we talked about this earlier in
the week, round five percent is where it was. So
we've had a little bit of an uptick just here recently.
There's been a lot of reasons why that is occurring.
But one of the key things that I think the
FED is starting to look at is the stickiness of inflation,
(01:21):
meaning it's holding right now and it's not necessarily responding
to what's happening in the tariff side of things. I
want to go over to a clip real quick, because
this is Scott Bessen asking for at least a fifty
percent or a fifty basis point raycut.
Speaker 3 (01:35):
Take a look, there's a very good chance of a
fifty basis point rate cut. They try to be more
data driven, which I think is a mistake. You know,
it's just very old fashioned thinking. But I do think
we could go into a series of rate cuts here,
starting with a fifty basis point rate cut in September.
Speaker 4 (01:54):
A fifteen basis rate cut in September. Is that signal
that the economy, though is not doing well.
Speaker 3 (02:00):
That that signals that there's an adjustment, and if you
look at any model that the if you we should
probably be one hundred and fifty one hundred and seventy
five basis points lower. So probably one of the most
politicized governors just went off the board. Wow, she do that?
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Gave you that impression? I'd love to know. Sorry, I'm
mentally you're referring to Governor Kougler. What does she do
that gave?
Speaker 3 (02:26):
I think there's a lot of insight baseball. It was
hard to know whether we know TDS was a Trump
that dimension syndrome or Trump derangement syndrome or tariff arrangement syndrome.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
Okay, so that's an interesting clip there.
Speaker 1 (02:43):
But the point being is that he's talking about one
hundred and fifty basis points. Now what it would take
to get to that, but year in would be three
fifty basis points cuts in September, October, and December. That
is insane. I think I don't necessarily see the FAD
doing that. I think the key here, of course, though,
rolling into twenty twenty six, is the fact that we
(03:04):
do have a FED chair that will start to position
out of that role in that being, of course, chair
Pal that happens in May, so a lot is still
brewing around where this economy could be going.
Speaker 2 (03:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (03:17):
One of the things around ethereum is how long.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Have you held it?
Speaker 1 (03:20):
If you look at this tweet right here, if you
held through April twenty twenty five, this is one of.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
The darkest days.
Speaker 1 (03:25):
I would agree that is one of the darkest days.
You can go back and look at our ETH videos
back during that period of time, look at the bottom
that happened in April of this year. This is the
kind of narrative that we've been talking about with ETH.
Everybody was saying, including myself, that was just exhausted by
eight exhausted.
Speaker 2 (03:44):
That it wasn't moving, continuing.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
To see a down trend. And I think this is
something though that many.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
Of us were at least lucky enough.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I won't say luck because you're a legend, as they
say right now, if you held through that period of time,
you definitely knew what you were doing. And I think
this is the key right now, because we are nearing
in to an all time high and the question is
what happens after that. Now many people are now starting
to forecast that Ethereum could hit twenty five thousand dollars,
this coming in from standard charter. Now, I want to
(04:15):
take that with a grain of salt, guys, because there's
a lot within this. If you look at what Nate's
saying here, is that these everybody remembers these. Okay, remember
everybody was pitching this that same standard charter right there.
That's in March that Eth is going to go four thousand.
All right, Then you go further into this. Let's go
(04:36):
into this analyst predicting a twenty percent price crash below
two k.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Here's why.
Speaker 1 (04:43):
Then you go into that one the death cross for
twenty twenty two eighth price crash.
Speaker 3 (04:47):
You know.
Speaker 1 (04:47):
So this is the scenario that has been playing out
for ETH for a long time. Finally EITH has its
day in the sun. It's going to see an all
time high. I think in just a matter maybe as
a matter of minutes. We'll take a look at the
charts here in a second. But I do want to
go to another clip, and this is interesting because it's
Kathy Woods and how she is moving into the ETH
(05:07):
ecosystem through these ETH treasuries.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Take a look.
Speaker 4 (05:10):
It was very, very difficult for us to gain a
position in our ETFs to ETHER. There are all kinds
of problems. There are tax issues, fee issues. There's something
called bad income. If those gross profits are more than
ten percent of the total profits generated in a year,
(05:33):
the entire fund can be shut down. You'll lose a
lot of tax benefits, a great number of fines if
not actually shutting down. So we can't take those risks.
And I, as you can tell, I'm not deep into
tax lina, I'm not going to be able to explain
exactly who, what, when, where, why and how. I've just
listened to our trading team, our compliance team, our finance team,
(05:54):
and I say, okay, I can't go there. It's just
I can't do it. So this is the first time
we've been able to gain a position in ETHER. Sure,
it comes at a premium. There's just more utility. The ETFs,
at least not yet, are not allowed to stake.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
All right, Well, I think a couple of points to
hit on that. What she's talking about is exposure to
ETH via these funds through publicly traded companies. These are
treasure companies that are holding treasuries against their m navy
basically their value against what they're holding as ethereum, but
many of course are starting to build ecosystems around that.
(06:34):
I think that is going to be the growth mechanism.
Tom Lee of course is the one she's representing there
right now, and that's BM and r bitmine. What we've
also seen btcs as bet which is sharpening gaming. All
of these have started to move in this direction, and
I think if you look at what they're having to
do on Wall Street, basically jump through a lot of
(06:55):
hoops and loops to get this done. But everybody else,
like you and I, have been able to do something
all ready, and that is steak your eth. But if
you did that, if you were staking eth, eth is
now outperforming Bitcoin by nine hundred basis points year to date,
just on a staking compound. Remember, staking eth continues to
add more eth to it, which ends up compounding on
(07:16):
those gains, which is what you're seeing right now. This
is a big deal because I think this start starts
to play into maybe a strategy that a lot of
people might look at long term holding of a theory
and more other assets out there that you can stake.
And the real question is is how do we go
from staking into things like vaults, other DeFi plays. We're
(07:37):
going to get into that for you guys, because there's
a lot happening in that space. This is an interesting
statement right here. It takes four point twenty seven more
capital to move bitcoin the same percentage as ETH. So
think about that, four times the amount of capital to
move Bitcoin in the same percentage that we're seeing happening
(07:57):
in ETH right now. And look at the inflows now
in those ETFs five hundred and twenty three million. This
was yesterday on eight against Bitcoin at sixty six million,
So very interesting times right now. We're in a very
unusual moment I think in the market right now, because
narratives are starting to shift.
Speaker 3 (08:16):
Now.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
The ETH narrative has been playing out, but the ETH
ecosystem hasn't completely.
Speaker 2 (08:22):
Played out to its fullest.
Speaker 1 (08:24):
And the reason I say that is because of so
many different things that are happening right now. You've got
stable coins occurring at the same time as treasury companies.
You've got of course the Genius Act all starting to
play out in a regulatory front, and then you have
traditional finance starting to discover ethereum for the first time.
(08:45):
And I think this is what continues to push us
in this direction. This is Kathy Woods also saying, hey,
I'm going to sell it a little bit of my
Solana for eth take a look.
Speaker 4 (08:55):
Had a very heavy waiting in Solana until recent and
you know, we made a very good move at a
good time as Ether started to outpace Solana. I know
that Solana was doing much better at a massive run
relative to Ether. People were challenging that notion, and yet
(09:19):
we're seeing the votes being placed and it makes sense.
Ethereum higher cost and a little slower, it's more decentralized
and therefore more secure. Solana, we think, is probably going
to be the winner in more consumer facing applications. So
we put out something called Bitcoin Monthly. It's probably going
(09:41):
to be Bitcoin bi monthly. Then we're going to layer
into the alternative month's Ether Solana, and you know we're
watching layer twos of course as well.
Speaker 1 (09:54):
All Right, So she said a lot there, some of
the key things here, and I'll give you my opinion
on e versus right now, because there's a lot of
different strategies and it also depends on where you were
at in the buying cycle. And if you look at
Arthur Hayes, he's out there now on record coming in
for and will be an advisory in the advisory committee,
I should say for you, Pexy, And this of course
(10:15):
is a Salana Treasury company. And the idea was selling
ETH for Salona.
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Now.
Speaker 1 (10:21):
The concept right now is ETH nearing five thousand, Solana
now just clipping over two hundred bucks as we record
this today. The real question you have to ask yourself is,
first of all, where did you buy both those assets?
If you're in both of those assets, you may want
to say, Okay, I'm just going to hold both.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
That could be a strategy.
Speaker 1 (10:39):
The other route, of course, you have to look at
and say, is Solana from here from two hundred dollars,
is that a two x from where we are today?
And versus Eth is that a two.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
X from where we are today?
Speaker 1 (10:51):
And this may be a conviction for you in terms
of just the kind of investing style that you guys
are going into. But if you look at short term,
probably is the better play in terms of the games
that you will maybe look at in the next ninety days.
If you're looking long term, then Ethereum is probably the
better play because we're going to see and continue to
see a lot more involvement from Wall Street, and I
(11:13):
think that's the factor that is getting overlooked here in
terms of how the market is playing out.
Speaker 2 (11:19):
Listen right now, if you're in.
Speaker 1 (11:21):
Crypto and you've been here for more than a year, guys,
you are essentially into the club. You have been there
in very dark times prior to last year's election, when
things were not looking good in crypto. Obviously, that as
a complete pivot going forward, and I think that's the
thing that everybody has to remember. Now. What she did
say is layer twos now layer twos, you could start
(11:43):
to look at a variety of different projects out there.
We're going to get a video out for you guys
to kind of break down some of the ones that
we're watching. One though, to keep an eye on is
optimism now this and you could kind of go arbitrum optimism,
and we've.
Speaker 2 (11:55):
Talked about both, both of which.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Have some interesting points. If you look at what allt
Air's getting into. This is the interesting part right here,
because if you look at it, optimism, arbitrum, all of
these are in a potential right now of a position
where we are going to see a narrative start to
play out. Now when Eth hits five k, and it
will you know, let's get to the all time high.
(12:19):
If it does start to hit five k, that is
a psychological effect on investors in a big way.
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Now, there's two things that can happen.
Speaker 1 (12:26):
You're going to have some investors that have been around
in eath for a long time and they're just going
to hold forever. And then you're going to have investors
that have not been around for a long time. Maybe
they bought at thirty five hundred when we started to
see that really aggressive move, Maybe they bought at you know,
fifteen hundred, whatever it might be. The key is what
is your expectation on ethereum long term? And I think
(12:49):
that's where we'll start to see things.
Speaker 2 (12:51):
Start to move.
Speaker 1 (12:52):
One other narrative to consider right now, because I think
a lot of people are trying to figure out, well,
if the ETH narrative does start to fade, and it's
more of a long term because we may get six
months or eight months worth of sideways action. And it
also could be a scenario where we get just you know,
a crash through five k and ETH starts to do
a lot of discovery. But one of the narratives that
you have to look at is going to be tokenized
(13:13):
treasurys talks, and I think that's something that we've started
to see movement within the Salana ecosystem. I would say
they're somewhat the leader, not necessarily the only one that's
going to be doing this, but definitely right now in
place to be an.
Speaker 2 (13:26):
Early stage mover.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
And that of course gets you into narratives and if
that is a narrative that could leap from here, that
could be the next play. And of course the Salona
ecosystem a lot of activity there. If you take a
look at the charts real quick, I'll just go up
and take a look at ethereum right now holding as
we record at forty seven to twenty two, and not
bad because sentiment is holding pretty solid right now on
(13:48):
our own trading signal, which has been very solid on
the sentiment tracking. So if you guys are not part
of the diamond circle, get in on that. Occasionally I'll
drop things like this chart right here, we'll talk about sentiment.
It also is one of the things that we've continued
to look at. Bitcoin trading at one twenty one starting
to crack in Mike get.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
A shot at its all time high.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
This is the highest close ever in the history of bitcoin.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
So a lot happening with bitcoin.
Speaker 1 (14:17):
And then if you take a look at Solana right there,
two big green candles on the daily after it has
reclaimed two hundred k or excuse me, two hundred dollars.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
I'd love it reclaimed two hundred KA two hundred dollars.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
And I think the key here with Solana again is
how does it respond when it starts to near this
kind of all time high potential. And when we look
at that around too, almost three hundred bucks. Is Solona
set for a four hundred dollars position? If we see
token is treasuries coming into the narrative, maybe that is
the case. As I said, if you're not in the
(14:51):
diamond circle, get in right now. It's a great place
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I'll drop in sentiment stuff in there. All of that
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follow me on X at Paul Baron. I'll catch you
next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
Speaker 3 (15:09):
Thank you,