Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Twenty four hour countdown is upon us. The FED meeting
is probably going to be the most important FED meeting
we've ever seen in the history of the markets. My
name is Paul Baron. Welcome back into the show. You
guys are not going to want to miss this one.
I do want to thank our sponsor, and that is Tangum.
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Speaker 2 (00:35):
It's going to give you a little bit of a
discount to get started.
Speaker 1 (00:37):
Let's go over to the first tweet today and this
one is a big one. JP Morgan on the Federate cuts. Basically,
what they're saying is the Federate cuts come in with
the S and P five hundred within one percent of
an all time high, actually hitting all time high, and
it results in an average return of fifteen percent over
the next twelve months, So these are good signs. According
to the research, one month performance is more spotty. This
(00:59):
is where stocks ending around fifty percent of the time
lowering fifty percent of the time, and then history says
near term volatility after Wednesday's rate cut will be a
long term buying opportunity. So if you're looking long term,
this may be the event for you, and other things
that you've got to consider right now. This is a
clip that kind of gets into how long will this
(01:21):
go in terms of a bull market.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
Here's tom late. Take a look.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
If it's mid cycle, that kind of implies maybe third,
fourth inning, maybe fifth that the latest is how you
see things for the strella.
Speaker 3 (01:31):
Yeah, I mean I think some parts are later cycle,
like part of these the MAG seven trade, But I
do think AI still has many years to just propel
earning surprise and innovation and economic growth. So I don't
think it's late, like it's too late. It's not too
late to buy the MAG seven. But I think the
next leg of this is really the FED cutting helps
(01:55):
the ism get back above fifty, brings down mortgage rates,
so it's a cyclical broadening trade. And then I think,
you know, financials, I think are still important because I
think that they're going to rerate more like technology stocks.
Goldman and J Morgan are basically technology companies now, and
as they embrace the blockchain, they're going to become more
(02:17):
streamlined and less employee dependent, much more AI driven.
Speaker 4 (02:21):
So I think there's a lot to look forward.
Speaker 1 (02:22):
To, all right, So very bullish signs coming out of
Tom Leet would consider him right now the number one
investor there on Wall Street. If you look at what's
happening with the S and P five hundred, well it's hit.
It's again another all time high above sixty six hundred
for the.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
First time ever.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
This is all happening when we're seeing a lot of
pressure on the economy. Other things that are happening right there,
is the economy now in a recession. That's the question
everybody's asking. Moody's is basically saying that it's a forty
eight percent probability of a recession in the next twelve months.
This is the highest since twenty twenty. Such a high
reading has never occurred outside of an downtterm. Right now,
(03:01):
what we're looking at is mostly the US job market,
which is already showing a lot of weakness. Question mark
will be how does this turn around if we do
see rate cuts coming in.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Other things that you got to look at.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Right here is the FED will cut rates in today's
JP Morgan says, this is an expectation they are looking
for the market to dump right before the reversal scenario.
One Bitcoin could dump to around one oh four, which
would be before the reversal scenario. Two Bitcoin will dump
towards ninety two. Let me know what you guys think
(03:33):
if we're going to see those kinds of movements with
bitcoin trading around one fifteen early in the week, So
that would be a pretty consistent or I think position
that we've seen before. I don't say it's consistent, but
it's definitely happened in a cycle where we've seen these
FED rate cuts before, and also some of the pressure
that the FED puts on the rest of the markets.
(03:55):
The other thing that's kind of an outlier is the
fact that we're seeing more credit crunt and this is
a good example.
Speaker 2 (04:02):
Search is for help with mortgage.
Speaker 1 (04:03):
This surpasses the two thousand and eight housing crisis. This
is huge when you look at just credit in general,
but more importantly the housing market, which means, and it
goes back to my whole theory, is that this bull
run is the havelves versus the haves. What I mean
by that is we are not going to see retail
participating in the way that we have seen it before
(04:25):
in this cycle. It truly may be the haves versus
the has. Here's retail sales. We're strong in August, beating forecast.
This is what gets a little weird. American consumers, especially
those at the top. This is the one percenters, the
two percenters. They're still spending, even on a lot of
discursionary things including eating outs, et cetera. But this could
change quickly if we see an acceleration.
Speaker 2 (04:48):
In white collar job layoffs.
Speaker 1 (04:50):
And I think that might be the phase in the
job portion of the economy that we are in. So
if we do see that, then yes, that could be
one of those main ticking points that would push over
into a very very heavy and struggling economy. Other things
you got to look at is we've been in a recession.
(05:10):
This is what analyst saying since twenty twenty four, and
they've just been hiding it. I'm not saying that that
is the case, but I will say that there are
definitely markers if you look at the credit delinquencies, and
if you'd go back and watch my channel for a year.
What I've been saying all along has been there are
job problems. The jobs are not going to be in
(05:32):
a good position. And now here we are a year later,
and what I think has been unfortunately a FED too late.
Had they started in early twenty twenty five, it might
have been deterred at least the job losses. The question
would be how far back would they have just started
in twenty twenty four if we weren't going to see
anything like this, And remember, the FED has a lot
of room. We are at the highest interest rates we've
(05:54):
been in a very very long time. But these credit
card delinquencies, this is a problem. And if you look
at this chart right here, we're going to see numbers
that we've seen since nineteen twenty nine. That's the kind
of debt that we're talking about right now.
Speaker 2 (06:07):
So this is a big deal. Guys.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
If we are looking at a recession on the outset,
it is possibly more pressure on the lower side of
the economy, and that starts to preclude retail from coming in,
so just be aware of that. Other signs that this
is happening is Klarna. They ipo today and this is
a buy now, pay later kind of platform, but they
(06:30):
iPod at nineteen point seven billion. This company is one
of the more i would say more active innovators. But
right now the average user has three point active three
point eight active loans. This is crazy for me to
have three active loans of buy now, pay later. They're
even doing this now on groceries, and when it goes
to that level, I think that is a very very
(06:52):
big sign of what is to come. So be aware
of all of that. Now, how does this play out
in the bull run? How does this play out in
what we will see of the FED going in on
risk assets? I think it's still positive because of the
fact that we are looking at the dollar being debased
right in front of our eyes and the only way
out of this is going to be through digital assets.
Speaker 2 (07:13):
I want to go to another clip here.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
This is Tom Lee talking about earnings and when they're
do take a look.
Speaker 4 (07:19):
I actually think this is a great idea and let
me explain why first quarterly earnings drives short term thinking
by businesses. It's a ninety day business cycle, and as
you know, as clients of us, we tend to think
of multi year themes, but a company is forced to
play that out every ninety days. The second is that
(07:40):
privately held companies don't even have to report COULA results,
so it's creating a disadvantage for being publicly listed. I
would say, I don't know if that's what we want.
We don't want private companies to say they'd rather stay
private because they don't have to report earnings every three months.
Quarterly reporting is time consuming and expensive, assumes a lot
of time for a business, as the CFO sits in
(08:04):
a room, and it takes up a lot of time
for analysts, and I think it's important for people to
focus on the bigger story arc. So I'm supportive of
this move actually.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
All right, So that's where Tom Lee and I disagree.
You look at the situation with privately held companies. Most
of those have investors. Those investors do expect reporse in
some cases they expect them monthly. But I think quarterly
is not something that is overburdening any kind of institution,
especially when you look at publicly traded institutions. Which you
(08:32):
need a lot more transparency. And that's where I think
I differ is I believe if you're publicly traded, you've
got to have that transparency. That's a crypto thing going forward.
Whether or not we see Wall Street Wall Street, it's
a little bit different on how they're playing the game.
But that is an issue that I'm just not on
the same boat with other things that are going on
right now is the US is in talks to set
(08:54):
up a five billion dollar fund to invest in rare
earth and mineral minding. Reason that's important because it could
slay into what's happening on both gold and also silver
right there. If you kind of look at the US
dollar and what's happening here, well, all of this is
starting to slide into guess what gold which is now
hitting all time high at thirty seven hundred and we
(09:14):
did a video yesterday on this point and this was
how long silver has been suppressed, which it's now starting
to hit around forty three bucks, which is possibly its
highest price in more than fourteen years. So we may
be on the cusp with something very big. If you
guys want to check out that video, just go over
to the channel right there. We had Andy Scheckman on
(09:34):
just yesterday to talk about this because it is interesting
it has a correlation to ethereum. But go check this
video out you'll kind of understand what I'm talking about.
Let's get into a further scenario that plays into this
is how high can Ethereum's price go after a fed
Ray cut? If you take a look and go back
to even the Iranian attack. This is back in June
of this year. We saw that downward trend, and then
(09:57):
essentially what you had since that was let's just go
to the local high. That was another seventy five percent move.
But if you go up here to high in July
and August, you had one hundred and fourteen percent move.
Now let's go from the same position of tariff day
two point zero and also an FOMC meeting and go
from that low to where we are on the high,
(10:20):
and you're talking about a forty six percent move, So
not bad if you can tolerate these ups and downs
for ethereum. Do we get that kind of move because
we have had four days leading in to the FOMC meeting,
which is where we are right now, very similar to
this right here, very similar to what we saw right there.
So these kind of market pullbacks are healthy. It is
(10:43):
something that has been talked about before as well. In fact,
the latest eight views from Mark Newton he hits on it.
This pullback is what we should have gotten a week ago.
Don't suspect we'll undercut the prior lows around forty two hundred,
could get down to forty four, maybe forty three by
end of week.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
And would that.
Speaker 1 (11:02):
Pretty much kind of signify yes, by the dips. But
if ETH being in root to fifty five hundred in
mid October, that's where fun Strat which is bit Minor,
and Tom Lee and of course Mark Newton on where
he thinks Ethereum is going. Let me know in the
comments guys if you think Eth is going to hit
that number by mid October. And of course, if you
(11:24):
haven't subscribed to the show right now, just take a time.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
And hit subscribe. It does help us out and we're
trying to become the number one.
Speaker 1 (11:31):
Crypto show out there, so give us a little bit
of love. Black Rock also bought two hundred and sixty
million of bitcoin, but they also bought even more eth,
and they bought three hundred and sixty million of eath,
so this is something that is starting to move in
the right direction if you're an ETH holder. And also
I think in general just rotation, because this is typical
of how a lot of these kinds, both on whether
(11:53):
you look at traditional stock market stocks people rotating into midcaps,
or you see what's happening here in the crypto are
is where we start seeing people rotate into of course
all coins. One other thing that I want to show
you is this right here token I stocks and if
you go in and look at what's happening, because what
we saw is Solona kind of leading the way right here,
(12:16):
and then right here on the second of September, the
explosion into ETH began.
Speaker 2 (12:23):
And this is just the very beginning, guys.
Speaker 1 (12:24):
As because we did a video earlier it just showed
this first level and we've already seen a couple of
legs up on this, so it's very possible we could
see a considerably more movement more movement in ETH. So
be on the lookout for this because this, I think
is going to be a big deal for Ethereum in general.
Going on to this, if you just take Eth on
the TVL continuing to climb a lot of people looking
(12:47):
at locking up this, and I think most people are
looking at yields as being a big factor. What we
will see as is playing into more of the DAK companies,
the digital asset treasuries as a strategy going forward, playing
into maybe an e all time high coming very soon.
And whether or not we see a ten thousand dollars
eth or not, we are going to see a lot
(13:07):
of yields being.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
Paid out out there for sure.
Speaker 1 (13:09):
If you want to get a beta play, one way
to go has always been uniewap, and if you look
at the L two volume on uniswap protocol right now,
it's close to setting a new yearly all time high.
So that in itself is a good sign for unicewap.
And I think as we see the ETH ecosystem expand,
unicewap is going to be a beneficiary of that. Speaking
(13:30):
of unicewap, let's jump over to the chart real quick.
I'm just looking at this zone. If this area holds
and you reverse this back out, this could be up
to another thirty percent retracement upward. If unie swap is
the beta play on what we could see on ethereum.
So just pay attention to those things We've got a
lot moving in the markets, and I think this is
(13:51):
going to be a very critical time as the FOMC
meeting comes in tomorrow. Just as a reminder, we are
doing a big live stream tomorrow for you guys. This
is going to be a huge one. That's at two
thirty Eastern time. We'll most likely go on a head
of schedule, but be on the watch because this is
going to be significant whether we get the quarter basis
and how Powell responds into the next potential rate cuts.
(14:14):
His statements in that press conference are going to be
critical in understanding where we are going. If you guys
are not subscribed to it right now, and if also
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jump in on that. That's our own private group out there.
I drop an email each week. It's one that you
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Speaker 2 (14:29):
To be a part of.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
It's absolutely free, So use the link down below, follow
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next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.