No Rate Cut Crashing Crypto🔥Technical Analysis with Data Dash

Federal Reserve officials were at odds during their October meeting over cutting interest rates, divided over whether a stalling labor market or stubborn inflation were bigger economic threats, minutes released Wednesday showed.

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Guest: Paul Sampson, DataDash
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00:00 Intro
00:10 Sponsor: Coinbase
01:00 Fed minutes x NVIDIA
02:45 CLIP - Scott Bessent: we’re do an insurance cut
03:45 Fed’s next move is becoming hard to predict
04:00 Bitcoin rebound soon?
06:50 Worst case scenario
07:40 Pantera: Fed’s hawkish stance is causing the pullback
08:30 Worst 4th quarter in 7 years
09:00 Did we just speed run the bear market?
13:10 Max pain for ETF holders?
15:15 Ethereum analysis
18:15 Poly-Gone?
21:20 XRP analysis
23:50 Uniswap analysis
26:00 AVAX or SUI
31:00 Outro

#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
~No Rate Cut Crashing Crypto🔥Technical Analysis  ⁨@DataDash⁩  ~
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get into it today. This is going to be
a good one because we're going to talk about is
the rate cut potentially the saving grace for crypto. Let's
just jump right in. I do want to thank our sponsor,
and that is Coinbase. This is where you guys can
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(00:20):
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down below. It's going to help you guys get started.
You guys are going to love it. Let's get into
it today. I do want to bring in our analyst today,
which course is data Dash. You guys have met Paul
Samson before, but if you've never been to his channel,

(00:40):
jump over to YouTube and subscribe to data Dash. Okay,
just take some time, get over there, subscribe right now.
He drops. Are you doing videos daily? Paul?

Speaker 2 (00:51):
Five days a week?

Speaker 1 (00:52):
All right, five days a week.

Speaker 2 (00:53):
There you go.

Speaker 1 (00:54):
Lots of insights and some great trading analysis to get
into it. Paul, welcome in. Let's get into a couple
of points I want to jump into. First, we've got
the FOMC meeting results that are going to be coming
in around two pm. This, of course is going to
tell us what the officials are thinking here in about
forty five minutes, says, we're recording this. But at the

(01:14):
same time, we've got a problem, and that of course
is a poly market that keeps being very erratic on
whether or not we're going to get a rate cut.
What's your opinion right now, rate cut or no rate cut.

Speaker 3 (01:26):
I think that if anything is going to be twenty
five bases points. But yeah, it's I'm with polymarket.

Speaker 2 (01:32):
I'm up in the air. Honestly, it's hard to call
right now.

Speaker 3 (01:35):
With all the everything that happened, especially with all the
government shut down, all the information that was withheld and
now coming out and everything along those natures, I don't
know if that's going to skew anything. So yeah, I
mean it makes sense to where things are kind of,
you know, just kind of fifty to fifty ear and
I guess in this case a little oliver its place
in the sense.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
Yeah, it has had a big reversal just since yesterday
for the no change potential here, even though almost every
analyst I've talked to in this last week have all
been pushing toward a quarter point, even though they don't
know that necessarily will help markets any But that's the
kind of idea that they're kind of pushing to, is

(02:12):
a quarter point now and back up in January. But
of course Trump also announced that he was going to
have a FED chair named by end of year. Then
you have some other things that he is posting out
there in reference to Nvidia, and part of this is
all talking about Nvidia's Blackwell chip. So there's at least
some narrative where he's saying, hey, I'm propping up the

(02:32):
AI industry. The AI industry, though, is having a little
bit of a struggle as well, as we see the
S and P starting to falter a little bit. I
want to go into one more clip to kind of
put together this macro puzzle for you and then get
your opinion on this. Let's go over to the Scott
Bessett talking a little bit more around an insurance cut.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
Take a look, we have an answer.

Speaker 4 (02:56):
Do you think from the FED about another cut? Do
you think that's where they're going.

Speaker 2 (03:01):
I hope it's.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
Where they're going, because when you're in uncertain times, and
after what this Schumer shut down did to the economy,
I would think that if you're not taking out an
insurance cut here, or if you're flying blind, and they say, well,
we don't have data, well, if you don't have data,
then that's what insurance is for. So I would encourage them.

(03:23):
They've gone into a cycle. So let's go one two
three and we can see from there.

Speaker 2 (03:29):
We'll continue to follow up.

Speaker 1 (03:31):
All right, So a one two three insurance cut is
the idea that Besson is pushing. And then of course
you've got this statement right here, which is why of
the fed's next interest rate move is becoming so hard
to predict. First of all, you look at the lack
of data. You look at the market pressure that we're
seeing right now, even coming from the S and P

(03:52):
and Bitcoin. Let's before we go to the next clip.
I'm kind of curious. First of all, Bitcoin recovers the
ninety k mark and then it just turns right back around.
Anything that you're seeing that's indicative of why that chart
is moving that way.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
Yeah, so I was covering this.

Speaker 3 (04:12):
I'd like to say a couple times here and there
with you over the last few months, even all the
way back to like the earlier part of this year,
where we were in this what's known as an ab
equal CD setup, where the timing of this to complete,
which is up in this region, and this is a
bear setup to begin with, was the end of September,
first of October. I think we're actually doing a show
on the sixth of October when that original like Reddit

(04:35):
post was going around and everybody's looking at that as
a high Personally, I thought we'd get a little bit
more of a push towards like one thirty, but to
be fair, timing was there and this setup and everything
along those lines. Anyhow, this setup is very valid at
that point. The major target areas of something like this
is back to these two regions, which we pretty much
had that wick down right away, which was that October

(04:56):
tenth liquidation wick. We were holding on here for quite
a bit, little bounce back higher, then we lost this region,
back tested it right there off to our next area here,
and then as you just said, now we've lost that
as well. The more aggressive area of this setup is
actually all the way back to our tariff flows, but
currently right now that area is now acting as just
the major resistance at hand. So we had that, as

(05:17):
you stated, the little push back up towards about ninety
I'd like to say it was right at that level
that ninety three three seventy, give or take just a
couple of days ago. That's also our yearly open. So
that's a really big area for the year to be
aware of. Of course, at that point now we have
also basically given up all gains of twenty twenty five.
Granted it was you know, twenty five thousand dollars move

(05:39):
twenty percent, but still, you know, to give all that
backup is not a great feeling towards the end of
the year here. But yeah, we lost that key region
a back test of it now, so that's really big
resistance at this point, and so just to get the
rejection off of that is just seems the course at
the moment. We can break that down a little bit
more as we go, but that's the overall, like big
macro setup that I've kind of had for quite some time. Again,

(06:00):
I was hoping it would get a little bit more
of a push. I kind of felt it was a
little odd when everybody was truly you know, getting on
the same bandwagon. I felt like where everybody's like picturing
the four year cycle and the market is over, but regardless, the.

Speaker 2 (06:12):
Information was there and the areas that we are at now.

Speaker 3 (06:15):
So yeah, ninety three three is a big one to
get back above if we're going to do anything here.

Speaker 2 (06:18):
Otherwise, more downside is you know, on the docket.

Speaker 1 (06:21):
So more downside. We already have this kind of hawkish
feeling coming out of Wall Street and also coming out
of the administration. It seems as though the President's team
is really struggling trying to get at least Chair Pal
to reconsider and do these kinds of insurance cuts in general.
If they don't do it, I'm gonna play a clip

(06:43):
for you. But if they don't do it, Paul, what
would be the worst case scenario for bitcoin? Do you
feel by end of year?

Speaker 2 (06:51):
Worst by interviere?

Speaker 3 (06:53):
The worst case is probably back down to those Tara flows,
you know, getting back to that seventy four K into
the sixty nine twenty one high. So I feel like
that and that's about, you know, a twenty percent drop
from here. So we've we've dropped about thirty percent almost
now over the course of the last six weeks.

Speaker 2 (07:07):
We've got six weeks left.

Speaker 3 (07:08):
That just kind of ties into the same amount of
you know, downside if we're going to get it. But yeah,
I would say that sixty nine and seventy four would
be like the worst case. Now, I do have a
little bit of a saving grace here around this eighty
seven thousand, and we can touch on that here as
far as a little bullish outlook, but yeah, worst case,
I would say sixty nine and seventy four.

Speaker 1 (07:25):
So okay, So that I have so many questions about
this because it starts to change up the dynamic around
cycles and I want to go into that, but I
want to play this clip for you because this is
Pantera talking about the hawkst stance and why this pullback
could position the market a little bit differently.

Speaker 5 (07:43):
Take a look, is this crypto winter coming early here?

Speaker 2 (07:46):
Crypto tends to.

Speaker 5 (07:47):
Have these characteristics at rits on assets, so it's also
pulling back on macroaction. And you guys have just talked
about the large macro concerns like the AI capex sphere,
causing that when we pull back, the figures are on
credit around the fence plan for rate cuts. So what
we already saw is that a lot of the leverage
has been taken out of the bigcoin ecosystem. Recently, sixteen

(08:07):
percent of bitcoin is held by institutions, which is up
from basically zero percent live cycle. We think bitcoin is
going to be increasingly less sensitive to and less likely
to have volatility, and over time that that, you know,
a thirty percent draw down is actually it will become
larger and larger, will feel larger and larger. Over time,
we'll see smaller and smaller drawdowns.

Speaker 1 (08:28):
Yeah, all right, So you look at that, and then
you look at this right here, worst Q four for
bitcoin in seven years, as you can kind of see
the numbers right there, all the way back to our
best year in twenty twenty up one hundred and sixty
nine percent. So the cycle is is really at question here?
Does this just is this in a position where just

(08:49):
are we looking at a speed run in twenty twenty
six or did we just speed run a bull run
and now we've got a bear market brewing up for
twenty twenty six. I know your positions a little different
on this, So give me your analysis.

Speaker 3 (09:02):
Yeah, So a big piece of my overall analysis goes
back to that housing market, the twenty year cycle, and
that we've covered once here before. Not the board, everybody
with it all back right now. But the idea behind
that is that twenty two thousand and eight was our
last you know, major high, and then since then we
have entered a new twenty year cycle in the housing market,
business cycle, et cetera. Crypto was born in that same timeframe,

(09:23):
So I've been kind of gauging crypto is actually printing
the first twenty year cycle. And yes it's been a compromise,
you know, comprised of several little four year.

Speaker 2 (09:31):
One so far.

Speaker 3 (09:32):
And the idea behind that is that twenty twenty six
to twenty twenty nine would be the area where we
actually get the next sizeable correction in the markets. Now,
key point of that is twenty twenty six is in
the mix there, so as like a cautionary year for me,
I still could see where twenty twenty six could be
actually a pretty big year to go forward here. The
key is here is just kind of being reactionary at
some of these levels. Sixty nine thousand dollars for me

(09:53):
for bitcoin is kind of that big line in the sand.
If we get under that level, I think that that's
and again that's twenty percent from where we are now,
so it's forty percent off the high whatever the case
may be. So it's a big area to just kind
of blindly wait for it to just decide if that's
going to be, you know, where you want to d
risk or anything.

Speaker 2 (10:09):
So obviously you need to kind of.

Speaker 3 (10:11):
Make take the best risk management for yourself. But so far, honestly,
I think we're just seeing a regular pullback here.

Speaker 2 (10:17):
Again, to go back to the.

Speaker 3 (10:18):
Chart, you know you're looking at, this is one little
piece and there's actually a bigger version of this that
I can take all the way back to twenty eighteen.
It aligns well with that eighty seven thousand dollars region.
But for now we're just coming down in normal senses.

Speaker 2 (10:33):
This is also a.

Speaker 3 (10:34):
Big region where I had noted for many basically the
whole year ever since we got out of this region,
is that if we're going to see the next sizeable
correction out of bitcoin, which means similar to what we
saw right here, sorry, similar to what we saw right
here at the inauguration day, similar to what we saw
in twenty twenty four, these thirty percent plus little pullbacks
that it was going to happen at one hundred and
thirty thousand. Now we topped at one twenty six, so

(10:56):
so far, nothing's out of the ordinary.

Speaker 2 (10:58):
I know it's got.

Speaker 3 (10:58):
People's nerves really rocky here, but to come down and
if we can see a little support down here, I'll
turn this off and I'll kind of show you the
little bullish outlook here that we have now. So I
was just looking at a bearish harmonic setup, which is
a sequence of fibonacci's and now sorry move that. Now,
this is a bullish setup that is not necessarily something

(11:19):
that's not that I'm anticipating it to complete for it
to be valid. This is actually a valid setup already.
So we have what's known as the hop down here,
which is an optimized area. So realistically this is really
extended right now. But if we can find support, so
if Bitcoin finds it's footing down here around eighty six
k again, this is more like a region. I'm not
going to give it an exact dollar, but if we

(11:41):
can really find some footing down in this region here,
this really sets us up to run it back again,
maybe either next coming weeks. Here, this is probably going
to take some time. This is a six month setup
that took place, so it's not going to be overnight
where we just kind of run it back, but this
could set us up for another run back to like
one hundred and nine. Realistically there's three of this, but
the main one being around this back of one hundred k.

(12:03):
So that's kind of the bullish outlook here as we
walk into it, not really breaking it down in the
sense of just blindly going with four years have been up.
It's completely down from here. We definitely have areas to
be aware of here. We're coming down into major supports
off of that major setup that we were looking at,
So you just kind of have to be a little
subjective here, a little open minded. But if that again,

(12:24):
if it's a place where if the market does come
down more because obviously nobody knows what it's going to do,
you've got to be able to manage for yourself. You
need a d risk a little now and see if
it's going to get a pushback up.

Speaker 2 (12:33):
You still have skinning the game.

Speaker 3 (12:34):
If it does, and if now you've got dry powder
on the side for a go lower, like that's just
the best case to.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
Do at this point.

Speaker 1 (12:40):
Coin based institutions have been selling for nineteen straight days
now no bounce until this recovers. Are you in agreement
with that the amount of institutional.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
Self Yeah, I think that that's a really good signal there.

Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, that's a you know.

Speaker 3 (12:54):
The only thing with that, of course, is that these
things get reported a little laggy, so of course the
abbounds could alread be underway by the time we get
that information. But yeah, I would say that that's probably
a clear sign there that we're looking for a bounce
in that as well as a bounce in the price action.

Speaker 2 (13:08):
Also, if you look at this chart right here.

Speaker 1 (13:11):
We put out a tweet this morning, but I want
to go to this chart, and you're going to notice
here that we are in these have In most cases
when we've seen these really inflow evacuations occur, we've had
reversals fairly good except for what we're seeing right now
in this consistency, especially on ibit. Do you think we're

(13:36):
in that kind of position right now where we're seeing
the outflows of bitcoin? I mean, even what was it
bonds even paying more than what an ETF on bitcoin
was paying. So are we at that fatigue point right
now with where bitcoin is in general?

Speaker 3 (13:54):
Yeah, I think that again, we're coming into some really
big points of support for one on the chart. Fundamentally,
there's really nothing too crazy going on right now. That's
outside of just the four year cycle I guess would
be the only idea here.

Speaker 2 (14:07):
But yeah, I mean.

Speaker 3 (14:08):
We're down a substantial amount, which is so far the
entire bull run has been around the average that we
come down. Even if we go down to the true average,
it was about thirty three ish. That's about that eighty
two eighty three thousand dollars mark, so within this region,
and then of course you have like we're completely retracing
potentially down to these Tarra flows. Yeah, I think that
there's no question about that. This is definitely an area

(14:32):
compared to where we were that we could see some
fatigue come in potentially the bounce kind of come into
this region as well. So yeah, I would I would
totally agree that with that statement.

Speaker 1 (14:42):
Well, and I think this would it's very possible. I
think that these ancient wallets will probably stop selling this,
especially if we get around eighty two, because at that
point it's probably like, hey, I'm going to wait this out.
I've waited this long, I'm looking for a next leg
up and maybe maybe I missed it. I won't say,
dare I say they round trip? But then the position
where they might be looking at because they're setting on

(15:03):
a thousand dollars bitcoin price right that.

Speaker 2 (15:08):
Yeah, that'd be quite the round trip for all of us.

Speaker 1 (15:11):
Yeah, let's go over to ETH real quick, because Eth
is now officially flipped Bitcoin in terms of share of
total supply held by Digital Asset Treasury. So dats are
now pushing and we have more Eth in these dats
now than Bitcoin holding and that's crazy when you think
about that. But you've got a lot there obviously with

(15:35):
L two's Dallas Foundations, everybody that's involved in this. When
you look at ethereum now sub three thousand as of today,
where do you think ETH could drop to? Because we're
looking for a zone where I would buy Eth again?

Speaker 2 (15:50):
What would that be for you?

Speaker 3 (15:53):
Yeah, So I wanted to bring up I think that
last time or the last big rally here as right
off the back of the Pectra upgrade, and I think
we have another one coming up here soon. And the
thing about that is is that where we were around
this region, there was a pretty decent little setup here
in play, and then of course we got the upgrade

(16:14):
basically right here at this little spike up. And currently
there's really nothing major in play as far as like
a huge bullish setup aside from just coming into some
major support. So now to your point, what is the
what are the next best areas to look for? One
of one area is always going to be that gold pocket,
which is a sim simple just fibonacci retlacement from low
to the high that's coming in right around this twenty

(16:35):
six hundred dollars. Also, you know, we're pretty much touching
around that region now this twenty eight ninety, so we're
coming back to this previous high. I would almost box
that region off as you know, a area of interest
as we're coming also with bitcoin down towards those you know,
key eighties. So where we are right now is probably
not the worst place on top of that, just looking
at if you're ever just not looking at a chart

(16:56):
and just in the business of buying a you know,
Mama always say when something drops thirty to forty percent,
you know, put a little risk on the table there.
So EITH is now down forty percent here. The other
area around this region that i'd look to is I
take a look at the overall year as far as
where we look for on volume would go. So coming
back to the beginning of this year, sorry dragging that

(17:19):
over there, we've got our point of control, which is
our highest traded area as well, that price is likely
to revisit if we're back in the range, which we
are very much so back in that region here you
can see pretty clearly we re entered it back test
and now we're down in this area. A couple of
weeks back when we were on here, I'd highlighted how
important the thirty three to thirty five hundred dollars level was,
and that was when we were basically just you know,

(17:41):
sandbagging right here and losing that has been really just
the line in the sand to initiate this downward move here.

Speaker 2 (17:49):
We had a little support hopefully coming in around.

Speaker 3 (17:51):
That thirty three which was our yearly open, so similar
to Bitcoin which just blew through it as well. So
again all gains erased for twenty twenty five, sadly.

Speaker 2 (17:58):
But if we're looking for the next best.

Speaker 3 (18:00):
Area currently where we are right now is a big
one down to about twenty five dollars on ETH.

Speaker 1 (18:07):
Twenty five hundred target zone for ETH We're going to
keep an eye on that one. I also want to
talk about Polygon. We had sand Deep on here just
the other day. He said they had big announcements. One
of the announcements that they did during their devconnect was
MasterCard doing crypto Credential, which is a new way to
do self custody wallets. They also announced this deal with Revolute,

(18:30):
which is another big deal because Revolute's one of the
largest FinTechs in Europe around stable point payments, which ride
on Polygon, so that's a big advantage and they're going
to have some staking in there as well. Even with
all that news, Polygon did not move a minute. I
mean it's still I'm here on the daily chart right now.
This thing is still in a position to where it

(18:51):
is so depressed. Is there any hope for Polygon coming
off the floor here?

Speaker 2 (18:57):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (18:57):
I was just taking a look at that as well,
and that in this case, this is one where you
really have to be a little defensive on currently, because
again we're in a place where you know, we really
got to pay attention then for Bitcoin, if all coins
are going to see any type of movement, obviously we
need to see some strength come out of there and
probably gone. Like I said, it's just at least on
the area I'm looking at. This is on the coin

(19:18):
base chart. I don't know if this is the all
time low or not, but it's basically making all time lows.
We wip down to that area I think on the
tenth YEP on the liquidation day, and then it just
slowly melted back down.

Speaker 2 (19:28):
So right now, like good news or any news is
really not making a difference.

Speaker 3 (19:33):
I would say, really, I'd like to see this, and
it's only you know, thirteen cents now, obviously we're making
new lows in this case. We want to see some
strength probably come back into this, So I'd say, you'd
really want to see us before you get too overly
involved with this at the moment, get back above that
fifteen cent mark, which is a little bit of a difference,
about an eight to ten percent you know area fro
where we are. The only reason I say that is

(19:54):
because now that we're below that, you've just lost you know,
it's just price discovery to the floor right now. So
we could go lower here, of course, so they get
any type of reversal and see any kind of strength
come in here. We'd want to get back above that
fifteen cents and then a lot of times what I
see with things like this one that we're just pretty
much ranging so heavily, even though we could deviate below
the lows here, if you do start getting back above

(20:15):
that area here, it really opens up a big move
back to the high side of the range, which is
about twenty nine cents. But ultimately we can get big
moves up to these point three eight twos. This is
the macro three eight two here, which if you look
at XRP Solana quant what was another one that theta changed?
Like even things that just burst up and then just
die off right away cro just recently did it. You

(20:37):
see a lot of coins bounce, and not even just
coin stocks anything, right, They usually bounce back up to
these point three a twos and then they even if
they're going to roll over again. It's a really big
area to be aware of. So I'd say fifteen cents
get back above. You have room back up to thirty
cents and then potential to run it to thirty eight
over time. But fifteen cents is the key here. You

(20:58):
just got to see us get back above.

Speaker 1 (21:00):
Yeah, I think the problem there of course is if
we have all this bullish news. Timing wise, this was
just not a good one I think for Polygon in general.
And you know Solana, they've got breakpoin coming up in December.
I mean, we could have one of the most depressing
Decembers in a while, which again would not be which
would not be good timing for Solana. You mentioned XRP.

(21:22):
XRP up two hundred and fifty percent on the year.
If you look at where they were this time last
year in November to where they are now, and now
it's defending that two dollars point, which is a very
very big defense area. Do you think XRP can hold
this two dollars zone.

Speaker 2 (21:42):
Let's take a peek.

Speaker 3 (21:45):
So, yeah, you know XRP oddly enough probably, if not
oddly enough, I think, besides Bitcoin, probably one of the
number one movers of the cycle, if you're going to
look at it that way, right, So since last year
up seven almost seven hundred percent. The thing is here,
we we stayed down here so long, or we were
ranging in this region down so long that a burst

(22:06):
up like this usually almost like this, when you get
this big burst up and it just gets sold right
back into a lot of times you would get something
along those lines and something that's not you know, holding
as strong as you'd like to see. So for me,
XRP has been holding pretty good. It's not to say
that it's going to continue, but it's pretty much just
had this huge range that's sat in here. Again, this

(22:26):
is based on volume here. The only thing that you know,
you don't really want to see is how much volume
is coming in at the bottom here, because a lot
of times that does indicate that we're going to see
continuation back down to the downside. So it's really just
going to come down to some reactionary basis here as
well as Bitcoin paying attention to see if we do
get any type of strength coming in there. But ultimately,

(22:47):
aside from that, just without looking at anything aside from
just the information at hand, we're just currently trading back
down at the low end of this range, which is
right on the money, as you just said about two dollars.
So yeah, I mean, I feel like as long as
two dollars is whole and really this level I have
marked out that I've had for a while, this one
seventy nine, one seventy nine, two dollars that's my big
key region. If we start to live below that, I

(23:07):
would say that that's where XRP really starts looking weaker
from where we are currently Otherwise low end of the
range areas you want to look to put on some risk. Again,
we're looking at the whole market here at this point,
so it's just something you got to kind of be
able to manage along the way. If we were to
get a push up out of here, still looking at
this trend based gold pocket and then potential. I know

(23:28):
people don't like to hear it when we're on down days,
but when we're here at supports, when you got to
look for the potential where we can get to and
be able to again address risk accordingly, and if we
were to launch up out of this region start finding
our legs here, I think four forty is still something
that we could see on an XRP.

Speaker 1 (23:43):
There you go, guys, so keep an eye on that one.
UNISWAP is another one that we're watching also after huge
news just amitted the unification proposal looks like it's going
to pass. We think this is coming through. This is
going to change everything for UNIEWAP. When you look at
uniswap right now, Paul, do you think this is a
good trade?

Speaker 2 (24:06):
Hm, let's tick a peak.

Speaker 3 (24:10):
So unie swap is again something we've what I just
pointed out with whatever when we were just looking at
a second ago that three eight two. This is a
perfect example where you get that huge burst up and
even if it gives it all right back. That is
something we saw on uniswap back in December of last year.
But anyhow, currently we've been ranging around this region on
the news the other day when I believe that first

(24:32):
hit because I saw you post about it specifically, we
ran it up again. So similar to what we're just
looking at on XRP. When you're down at the low
end of the range, you got to consider, you know,
putting on some risk, ran it right to the high,
got the rejection here, and now we're just kind of
coasting around the middle here. So technically speaking, you know,
it's right in the middle of a range, so it's
a hard What I mean by that is, you know,

(24:53):
we have a fifty to fifty chance of running it
back up or running it back down, So it's not
the best place to be as far as looking at
it in that sense where we could go from here,
even if we did just DCA, if it did start
coming down, you start dollar cost averaging.

Speaker 2 (25:06):
Here. Let's just see where a local gold pocket is.

Speaker 3 (25:09):
It's actually right where we are right now, So that
would be one thing to kind of keep in mind,
so if you're going to have any type of position there.
But we've also been ranging really tightly down here as well.
So if we did see a sizeable move out of
the market, let's just assume that you know, Bitcoin recovers
a bit here and eth and everything, we get that
push up here, there is a slew of levels above

(25:30):
us that I think unicewap could get to. And again
I reference like cro had just recently did this and
we had this huge range and then you get a
breakout and you get to these levels in a hurry.
So it's not a guarantee by any means, but when
I look for things to diversify put on a little
bit of risk, this probably would be actually one that
I would consider, especially with some of the fundamentals that
are going on as well.

Speaker 1 (25:50):
Right, So yeah, for sure, I mean, once they flip
this switch, we are going to see some I think,
you know, in the long term which I think a
lot of people look at for UNISWAP. They're control one
within the eth ecosystem as a beta play, and the
fact that it is going to be a power player
in DeFi without a doubt. Okay, so I want to go.
I want to end up here with Avalanche and Suite.

(26:12):
All right, Avalanche, many people would say very undervalued right now.
Avax kind of a I would say, a favorite of
our channel, and then of course they just kind of
went a little bit dormant during a very critical time
this year, and that was during the run up of
bitcoin to one twenty six. We never saw Avalanche really

(26:32):
perform off that sixty five if you had to buy
an asset. Because there's a lot of people, I think
investors right now that are maybe in the s and
P five hundred, and they're saying the same thing. They think, Okay,
this might be the top. I'm going to take a
little off the table. I'm going to go to dollars okay,
or I'm going to go to whatever money market. But
I'm looking at the next option here, and it might

(26:54):
be some of these risk assets over in crypto Avax.
We could be in the right position for some of
those investors that are looking for this next bull cycle
coming out of crypto, Which one of those would you
go with right now?

Speaker 2 (27:10):
Avalanche or avalanche or suite.

Speaker 3 (27:13):
Okay, let's take a look at both, and then I'll
kind of come to the conclusion. I also just wanted
to point out again that three eight to two meter
type of move that we see all the time just
happened on here as well. Back in Again, this is
a higher timeframe, but just pointing out the examples there. Yeah,
I mean, not all time lows by any means that
we've seen, you know, eight dollars or less.

Speaker 2 (27:32):
Obviously we back in the day, but we are definitely
coming in.

Speaker 3 (27:35):
You know, we're definitely on the floor, similar to what
you were just pointing out with Paul. And to me,
it's again it's it's taking into account the entire market
at this current state, whereas it bitcoin's going to head lower.
You have to kind of keep all that in your
back of your mind. But I will point out that
with bitcoin falling recently, I know we've had the big
drop from UH one t six down to one hundred,

(27:58):
and then we had basically everything on that and then
recently that the alquins have been holding up pretty resiliently
in my opinion, compared because we've had another sizeable drop,
so avalanche coming down in these areas now which we're
not completely melting down, and Bitcoin potentially coming into support.
I personally the way I like to invest, especially with
my longer term positions, I do look for things like

(28:18):
this again, something that's not popped, you know, one of
the ones that has not maybe I most.

Speaker 2 (28:23):
Got the most attention at the time.

Speaker 3 (28:25):
It's a little bit of a risk here, as everything's
always a risk of course, but yeah, I mean this
is something that easily I would be willing to put
on risk here because it is basically at the lows.
So that's that's my risk profile, is that I will
look for things at the lows and again maybe look
for a bit of strength here. If I was to
look for the idea similar to where we were looking

(28:45):
at Polygon, I believe, or poly market when we need
to flip this fourteen dollars again to kind of see
any kind of strength come back in. But right now
we're undervalued, as you said, you're deviating a little bit
below here. You could put on a little risk here
and then of course, if it gets lower, decide you
want to do from there, but.

Speaker 2 (29:01):
Flip fourteen dollars.

Speaker 3 (29:02):
However, and I think we have a sizeable move and
I still stick to the idea that again similar to
what we were just looking at a second ago as well.

Speaker 2 (29:11):
I think it was uniswap.

Speaker 3 (29:13):
We have sizeable areas the back above here and then
just not even to get in a price discovery just
to recover some of this ground here on a huge
multi year just ranging activity avalanche again on the floor.
Definitely would be something sizable here that we could get
into in the in the sense of the market moving
to the upside.

Speaker 2 (29:33):
Let's take a look at Suey as well.

Speaker 3 (29:36):
Suey's just kind of melting down here a bit with
everything else.

Speaker 2 (29:40):
Sue's a newer project, just soon's the newer yeah, melting Sue's.

Speaker 3 (29:46):
The newer project of the two though, And with that
is going to come more risk, right because we don't
have as much information, as much data and the things
they go along with that. But as anything, we've got
the risk at hand, so we've lost this big range.
I'm even just gonn take this off, not even worth
looking at anymore, all right, We've got some lows here
we want to see recovered, but ultimately I've got one

(30:07):
other level here on Sue and now. I would imagine
if we flew all the way down to this, we'd
have bigger problems in the market, because that's about a
forty four percent drop. But for me, if I had
a stink bid and I really wanted to just get
in on some great opportunity on SUI would be down
there about eighty cents.

Speaker 2 (30:22):
Otherwise where we are now.

Speaker 3 (30:24):
Again, Mom always said, if something's down seventy two percent,
consider getting in, I guess, or putting on some risk. Yeah,
I'd probably say we're in a little bit of limbo
with Suey, so I'd really like to recover this.

Speaker 2 (30:37):
One seven yeah.

Speaker 3 (30:38):
And then with Avalanche Okay, yeah, I'd go with both,
honestly a little bit, but I'd probably choose Avalanche.

Speaker 1 (30:46):
Yeah, leverage on each. I mean, there's an opportunity there,
and I think this will be the intriguing part of this, Guys.
We are going to either and I think this has
always been the question is whether or not we see
further bleed on the all coins. With Bitcoin now polamenting
under eighty nine k again as we're recording, so hitting
eighty eight, so we continue to see this strength in

(31:08):
pushing down around all of this. I still think the
FED is going to be the savior for this as
we start to see indicators and also maybe to a
certain extent some QI you know coming in as well,
which could you know we'll know here, Yeah, we'll here.
We'll going to know in eleven days, you know, because
that's when we are done on the balance sheet for

(31:28):
the FED. Hey, Paul, it's been good having you on today.
We'll definitely get you back in as we get into
December because there could be some interesting plays to make
as we start to go into next year for twenty
twenty six. So thanks for coming in. We appreciate it.

Speaker 2 (31:43):
Pleasure, Paul. Look, you Ford the next one.

Speaker 1 (31:45):
All right, So you guys know what to do. If
you're not in the diamond circle, make sure and get
in on that. It is a great place to get
additional content. I know there's a lot of new viewers,
and I think we are seeing a rotation out of
the S and P five hundred investors who are now
starting to take a look at crypto with all these
depleted levels. As an opportunity. So I know you guys
are out there, so thanks for coming in. If you're

(32:07):
not following me on X, do that as well. It's
just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right
here on The Paul Baron Show.