Sell Bitcoin For Ethereum Now?📉w/ Erik Crown

Bitcoin pioneer Samson Mow predicted Ethereum investors will switch back to Bitcoin once ETH prices get high enough, potentially reversing a five-week surge in Ethereum still, historical market cycle patterns may indicate otherwise. 

~This episode is sponsored by Gemini~
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Guest: Erik Crown
Erik Crown Youtube channel➜ https://www.youtube.com/@ECKrown

00:00 Intro
00:09 Sponsor: Gemini
01:55 Are cycles over?
04:50 Bitcoin dominance vs Altseason
07:16 Bitcoin downside risk
09:25 Top signals
13:12 Bitcoin long term
14:02 Rotation to Ethereum
15:40 CLIP - Tom Lee: ETH is having its BTC 2017 moment
18:15 Treasury companies
19:03 BTC & ETH price predictions
20:30 Outro

#Bitcoin #Crypto #Ethereum
~Sell Bitcoin For Ethereum Now?📉w/ Erik Crown  ⁨ @ECKrown  ~
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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Is it time to sell your bitcoin for ethereum or
maybe there's another trade today, we're going to break it
down for you. We've got an excellent interview that's going
to I think you guys are gonna love this one.
But anyway, my name is Paul Barren. Welcome back into
the show. Let's get started. I want to thank our sponsor,
and that is Gemini. You can actually go over to
Gemini right now and get your own credit card over there,
and guess what you can earn bitcoin? That's right, bitcoin

(00:22):
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(00:44):
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So check it out, use our link. It does help

(01:05):
the channel. Let's get into it today with Eric Crown.
You guys have seen him on the YouTube's out there
known as ec Crown or K with a k over
on YouTube. Make sure and visit his channel right there.
He goes into a lot of really cool trades. Eric,
welcome into the show. Thanks for coming in.

Speaker 2 (01:24):
Pleasure to be here, been watching for a long time
and it's glad to be on the PBI network.

Speaker 1 (01:29):
Awesome. Well, you have come at the right time because
the market is as heated as it can be. Eth
is battling with bitcoin right now. We saw what looked
to be an eight breakout and then Bitcoin said hold
my beer. It came roaring right back. So tell me
a little about where you see the market at right now,
especially with what we're seeing in terms of four year cycle.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Sure, yeah, so to go for the four year cycle.
I think everything's changing really for bitcoin in particular. The
reason why, most likely is because of the ETFs. Everything's
changed in my opinion since that came alive, and this
whole cycle really has been structurally different in very objective ways.
If I can actually share a chart really quickly. Yeah,
So this cycle has been completely uncharacteristic compared to any

(02:14):
past cycle. And the reason why we know that is
because this cycle has experienced multi very long, multi month
long corrections. We're talking bitcoin trading and arrange for you know,
anywhere between five to seven months. We've seen it three
times now. We saw it to of course right here,
we saw it more recently right here, and then of
course the most recent one right here as well. This

(02:36):
is completely different than anything that we've seen in the past.
If you look at past cycles for bitcoin, it's always
it's always been just a straight shot, that parabolic blow
off top that everyone loves, you know, once bitcoin breaks
in all time highs. That's what you saw, of course
right here in the twenty twenty one saga. In twenty seventeen,
it was just a beautiful, very long term but all
is just straight up the whole damn way. And then

(02:56):
same thing over here as well. No multi month long
corrections led to major continuations. In this case here we've
had three three very very long ones six months or
so on average, which is just uncharacteristic. So to me,
that says that the game is changed. And if the
game is changing, well, it makes sense because ETFs are
going to attract a whole different type of investor. And
we have to realize that, you know, the traditional sort

(03:18):
of investor, especially you know, big money managers, hedge fund
see sort of people, they don't trade like the traditional
crypto aficionado. Let's say, yeah, you know, people in the
people who are native to the crypto space, they're very
you know, apt to going ten x, twenty x, fifty x,
one hundred x leverage, and that's what kind of creates
these you know, major parabolic blowoff tops. But we have

(03:40):
to realize that hedge fund managers they're going to do
things differently, they effectively or in general, they will have
a mandate that you know, if bitcoin goes up let's
say twenty percent, they're going to sell some of their position,
and if bitcoin goes down, you know, fifteen twenty percent,
they're going to buy some. And we've seen that volatility
massively dissipate for bitcoin. Here, if we look at a
bitcoin volatility index, he's just been falling off a cliff

(04:01):
ever since that twenty twenty four January ETF debut happens.
So to me, that says that, you know, bitcoin volatile
be going down, which is generally good for the upside.
We're going to get more sort of consistent upside, but
you're also going to get these very long consolidation sideways,
which to me says, hey, these long term parabolic bluff
tops and dumps are not going to be happening in

(04:23):
the same way that we're used to anymore. You're going
to get these sort of you know, nice move up
trade sideways in a box, nice move up trade sideways
in a box. And when things do turn down, inevitably
it's not going to be I highly doubt it'll be
a seventy percent plus downside move you know. I think
really at most maybe we get fifty percent something like this.
But even then I imagine it'll be again down sideways,

(04:43):
down sideways, just because the way that these players will,
you know, trade this.

Speaker 1 (04:48):
So you hit it on it right there, Eric, And
that is the fact that we are looking at a
completely different psychology of traders. And this is something that
I've been you know, kind of talking about for quite
some time, and that is that that is what is
changing this four year cycle when you look at that
and where eth dominance or I should say bitcoin dominance
is right now is just looking at the bitcoin dominance
chart and everybody's kind of been looking at this is

(05:11):
on the weekly, but everybody's been looking at this channel
right here around sixty percent is the window we dipped
or came very close to that. I think it just
dipped under sixty percent. Will this make a difference in
terms of entering alternative assets? People call it all coin
season for many of you that are new, that just

(05:31):
simply means assets other than bitcoin and eth. Do you
think that's going to be the window for us to say, Okay, yeah,
there's going to be some other rotations.

Speaker 2 (05:41):
Look, I think in every cycle you're going to see
these sort of major pumps for all coins, typically near
the end of the cycle. The issue with them is
that most of these do not materialize into long term
macro uptrends, so these are always short term traits. If
you're getting into all coins. In my opinion, it can
ever be a long term investment. I've yet to see one, say,
all coin that has beat Bitcoin for two or more cycles,

(06:03):
meaning that it made a higher macro high from cycle
to cycle and a higher macro low. There's not been
one that I've seen. Now, I'm completely open to being
proven wrong in this, but I've been searching around for
the last three weeks just for an example of one,
and I haven't seen that happen. So, yes, you know,
do I think that there's going to be a nice large,
just big balance across the board with most all coins. Sure?

(06:24):
Are the newer ones going to be the bigger beneficiaries
of that? Most likely? Yes? Are they going to hold
onto these long term? Very unlikely. So that Bitcoin dominance,
whether it's going up or down, I don't think it
matters all that much because long term the trend against
bitcoin is down into the right towards zero. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (06:42):
And I think the key here is anytime you are
going into these high volatile investments, short term trades, and
even to a certain extent, some of the securities out
there kind of move in this way if you think
just I look at it, and Tasla is probably the
one that has the most similar narrative to where it's
up it's down. It depends on what doing that day
or that week as to how the market is moved,

(07:03):
which feels a lot like a meme coin sometimes. But
to your point, I think the Bitcoin ETF, the what
we've seen now at the ethtfs have all started to
dictate onto the market. Here's Matthew Siegel, he was talking
about this very issue. You look at some points though,
fifty six percent of the AUM of bitcoin ETFs one
hundred and sixty nine percent of the net inflows. This

(07:25):
is something that's been done in sixteen months, all right,
and you consider this and the capacity of where this
market could go because this is just the beginning and
we really haven't seen real regulatory framework until now. So
are we destined for a continuation of this? And back

(07:45):
to your point, maybe bitcoin does only a partial retracement
this time around.

Speaker 2 (07:51):
Yeah, I mean, that's exactly what I think is going
to happen. I think people are going to be, you know,
very much accustomed to those seventy percent plus massive dumps,
you know, from cycle to cycle, and you're probably not
going to get that. I mean, I think fifty percent
would be you know, that's that's fine, Like, if that happened,
I would be happy to buy there. Yeah, maybe it
goes a little bit lower, sure, that's fine, but I

(08:13):
don't think it goes much lower than that. If it
goes that low, you know, that low at all. During
this current cycle, we haven't even really got these major
major pullbacks in the way that we have in the
past as well. You know, we've seen a couple of
thirty percent pullbacks, which you know, is huge if you're
in traditional land, of course, like absolutely that's a massive crash,
like everyone's you know, jumping out the window. But in
crypto land, this is this is just a Monday, so

(08:35):
it ain't so bad, right, right exactly. So yeah, I
think that those days are over. I think that is
generally going to be kind of a grind And if
you want sort of an allegory or a chart to
kind of follow, maybe not exactly obviously, but just a
general idea, it would be Gold. When Gold's ETF debuted,
it was just this grind up and grind up and
grind up. And so I don't think you need to

(08:57):
get super cute with buying bitcoin if you're a long
term person. Yeah, I think you know, maybe don't necessarily
want to bid it exact all time highs, but if
you see a fifteen twenty percent pullback, I think that
that's fine. Personally, if you're a long term investor, you know,
five years down the road, you're probably going to be
rather happy.

Speaker 1 (09:12):
Yeah, for sure if you look at top indicators, because
there still are a lot of traders that are in
it for now, the next six months, the next eight months.
Maybe they're not in it, you know, to try to
wear this out, or maybe they're in a position right
now where they're trying to win as much as they
can and then spin down into Bitcoin when we do
see a retracement. Some people would say that's the strategy

(09:36):
to go. If you look at some of the indicators
out there, you get everything from the pie cycle, top
the multiple, the rainbow chart, anything that you're watching as
far as an indicator that says, hey, we have seen
another top indicator here.

Speaker 2 (09:52):
Yeah, I mean there's several things that I'm watching, and
I think that we're on the verge of another you know,
multi month long top coming up probably between you know,
Septown at the earliest, maybe late October at the latest.
I can show a few charts here. This is where
I can go full on nerd mode on this kind
of stuff. But one of the big ones for me
is just looking at this weekly still cast a cost twitter.

(10:13):
It is in a zone that is effectively called all
of the major tops throughout this current cycle. One again,
those major tops throughout this current cycle. We've seen three
of them thus far, and they've been you know, four
to six months in total. All of them correlate with
these same levels. This one over here led to a
two hundred and three day correction, This one over here
led to a seventy day one, this one over here
two hundred and twenty four day correction, this one over
here one hundred and sixty one days, and we're seeing

(10:35):
that level hit yet again over here as things do
turn down with momentum. So to me, that says, hey,
maybe this one has one more you know, surprise move
to the upside, but we're a lot closer to a
major high than not. The majority of this current move
is likely done, and we're probably gonna be waiting around
for a long time as well. On top of this,
I think a lot a lot of people are familiar
with this chart. It's the tether dominance chart. So just

(10:56):
like the bitcoin dominant chart, you know, measures all the
other assets versus bitcoin, this one just measures all the
other assets versus tether, and it is down around the
exact same level that we've seen the past few major
highs in this market. This level has marked off. If
we put on a bitcoin chart in the background, the
high that we saw back on over in March twenty

(11:16):
twenty four, that was this segment right here, and then
the more recent one that we saw in November slash
December of twenty twenty four. And so these areas like
to get ground out for you know, ninety one days,
ninety one days and perhaps another ninety one days, and
where does that bring us into That brings us into
about October. So I think that this current move again
is on the clock right now, and if we move
even further than that, we can go ahead and look

(11:37):
at the stock to flow rainbow indicator. I know a
lot of people like to lot this one and hey,
is it is kind of funny, but you know, it
is in that same sort of region what we have
seen actually cycle tops in the past. But you know,
as you know, I don't think that we're going to
see like a really nasty draw down, you know, just
another maybe six to eight month long sideways correction. You know.
On top of this, we can go to the having

(11:58):
a high chart that I've got over here, and all
I'm doing is of just measuring the time from the
having to the high and found that especially for the
last couple of cycles, you know, this was around the
five hundred and twenty to five hundred and fifty day mark.
If we draw that one out here as well, where
does that put us October first? So we have so
many things coming in from the same direction. On top
of that, if I pull up the perhaps earliest time,

(12:20):
it would be this FIB time extension right here, which
has been pretty apt at calling the highs and lows
throughout these major trending moves, and that one has another
date coming in basically the first week of September. And
if I go back over here and look at the
monthly Stoll cast as Twitter, you know we are once
again heading up towards a similar region that we've seen
for the last few highs. Right If you look at

(12:41):
this region, we mark off the last few times we've
seen this area hit that would be this this this
and I imagine it's going to get hit if you know,
at least in a couple of months, So that puts
us out to October, maybe even as early as September.
You know, these have correlated with major highs that lead
into major corrections. I think that that's probably working to
see relatively soon as well.

Speaker 1 (13:01):
So Eric, that's kind of a looking at a short
term window here. You look at some analysts out there,
they're thinking, you know, much longer term place here. Matt
Hogan was kind of hitting on it right here. If
you looked at, you know, where this market compared in
twenty twenty and what you were investing in ethereum classed
as tech, then of course you have bitcoin right there, Gold,

(13:23):
Nasdaq one hundred s, and P five hundred. These were
some pretty solid annualized gains and in very good, healthy returns.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
So it's still do you.

Speaker 1 (13:32):
Still feel that this is really the track that investors
should be looking at right now? Instead of now twenty
twenty five, we're looking out to twenty thirty.

Speaker 2 (13:42):
Oh yeah. I mean, if you're a long term investor,
if you're managing a portfolio and you don't have bitcoin,
I don't know what you're doing. I think that there's
more risk in not having that. Of course it doesn't
need to be all bitcoin, but you know, the returns
for themselves, especially over the past five years. Who's going
to beat that? Nothing?

Speaker 1 (14:00):
But what about this idea of rotation right now? So
we saw eth run up to forty three hundred Bitcoin
of course was setting around one sixteen at the time
it came in. There was some pullback in the market,
and now people are saying, well, maybe this is an
issue where it's actually Eth that is pulling Bitcoin up

(14:20):
the chart right now? Do you feel like that is
the case or no?

Speaker 2 (14:25):
I mean I think that ethereum is going to outpace
Bitcoin for a little bit here, but you know, going
back to the earlier conversation and sharing my screen once again, look,
I think it goes maybe even another fifty percent from here.
It could easily go to five million satoshi's on the ratio.
But long term, this is in my opinion, a massive loser.
You can't I personally, if I'm putting on the long

(14:45):
term investor hat, I don't want to invest in anything
that can't beat bitcoin from cycle to cycle, and we
can see here for ethereum, it has not held higher
highs and higher lows from cycle to cycle. In twenty
twenty one, it put in a lower high, it came
back down to the lows. To me, that's a losing
investment long term, because you could just be in bitcoin,
which is, you know, kind of like the SPX of
crypto in a way, it's a safer one if you will.

(15:07):
Can I be wrong about this? Yeah? Absolutely? Would I
be happy to be wrong about this? No? Of course
I hate be roight. No, of course I'd be happy
to be wrong you know about this as well. But realistically,
you know, even if this chart, like I said, goes
up another fifty percent, which I think it very well may.
In fact, you know this is Ethereum's time right now,
then it won't even put in a higher high versus
this Bitcoin parent. To me, that is just long term weakness.

(15:29):
Even though if you're a shorter term trader, yeah, you're
probably better off holding a bit more Etheroeum right now
if you want better games for sure. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (15:36):
Okay, So I want to play a clip for you,
and this clip is Tom Lee. You know I would
say he's the eighth marketing lead right now out there, right,
it would be a monarcho. Anyway, let me play this
clip for you, and then I want to get your opinion,
to take.

Speaker 3 (15:51):
A look and to give perspective. In twenty seventeen, bitcoin
was under one thousand, but that was the year when
Wall Street discovered that the narrative of bitcoin is digital gold.
And bitcoin has gone to one hundred twenty thousand now,
so one hundred and twenty times increase. In twenty twenty five.
A couple of things are happening around Ethereum. The first

(16:11):
is the Genius Act is now making stable coins kind
of green lighted, which is the chat GPT moment for crypto,
but it needs a smart contract, so it doesn't work
on Bitcoin.

Speaker 2 (16:22):
The second is.

Speaker 3 (16:23):
The SEC is pushing forward with Project Crypto, which is
actually asking Wall Street to move the entire financial system
onto the blockchain. Ethereum is the preferred choice for Wall
Street because it's had zero downtime since inception, matching what
the banks want one hundred percent of time. It's also
the most legally compliant and secure blockchain.

Speaker 1 (16:45):
All right, I hate when Tom Lee throws out fundamentals
like that, because you have to. You got to figure
out a way to argue with that. But to your
point is maybe it doesn't flow out long term. But
what Leah is saying is that maybe this is the
twenty seventeen moment for Eve and now is it's time
because of all these scenarios that are playing out in

(17:05):
the infrastructure of capital today. What do you make of that?

Speaker 2 (17:09):
Yeah, I mean, after watching that, I'm a believer an
He's a.

Speaker 1 (17:13):
Good salesman man.

Speaker 2 (17:14):
He sells it well, right, I mean, look, he talks
his book. There's no secret about that, and and fair enough,
you know he's allowed to look. I look at charts.
I don't know about all of what he said. It
sounds great to me. But that's the problem. Everything sounds
great to me. And if I went off of that,
I'd be investing in you know, every damn alt coin
let's say that exists on you know, on the planet.

(17:34):
But for me, I have to go off a trust
because I need something objective and objectivity comes from price prices,
the truth prices, you know what everything comes down to
at the end of the day. That's how people represent
their actual opinions with real actions by buying or selling
that opinion that he has. I mean, like I said,
it sounds logical, it sounds great, he speaks. Well, if
I'm just going off of that, yeah, I'm all in,

(17:56):
but yeah, yeah, you know personally, I personally will stand
back from that one.

Speaker 1 (18:03):
All right, Well, there's a lot of people that are
kind of pushing this. What do you make of this
is Joseph Lubin just a quick look at then again
another guy talking his book and this is we've seen this.
What do you make of these treasury companies? Both on
the bitcoin side. Obviously Sailor is the I would say that,
you know, the titan of the industry right now and

(18:24):
his call with obviously with strategy, but now we're seeing
this with eth and even a handful of all coins
that are trying to play in this direction. Do you
think these are long term plays on the treasury side?

Speaker 2 (18:36):
I'm not too sure, to be honest. I can go
both ways with this one, mostly because it feels to
me like a similar thing from the dot com era,
where everyone just added a dot calm at the end
of their name, right and their stuck went to the
moon and beyond and did they actually have that value? No,
they got washed out during the next sort of cycle.
I think that's very well what could happen here, But

(18:57):
I don't have super strong opinions about this, to be honest.

Speaker 1 (19:00):
All right, last point to you, Eric, and I'm going
to look at an eighth price prediction and also a
bitcoin price prediction. We're looking at the eighth high right now.
Polymarket is calling it before October, so right in line
with what you're talking about. What do you think we're
going to see in terms of Eath's high do? We

(19:21):
obviously will at least on this chart they're saying all
time high by that time. Anything else?

Speaker 2 (19:26):
I mean, I think, like I said, I think this
is Ethereum's time to shine these next few months here
for sure. You know, I wouldn't be surprised to see
anywhere between sixty five hundred on the low ends. Who
as much as maybe nine thousand to ten thousand on
the end.

Speaker 1 (19:39):
Wow, how about bitcoin by end of year?

Speaker 2 (19:43):
By end of year? You know, I think on the
lower ends maybe something like one thirty five, on the
upper end, about one fifty to one sixty.

Speaker 1 (19:51):
Anything on the side of strategic reserves, if if the
US were to come out, I know Bohines just stepped down,
but if we do get strategic reserves, by the US
where they're actually creating some way of acquiring bitcoin. Do
you think that would initiate a longer run for bitcoin
into twenty twenty six?

Speaker 2 (20:12):
Yeah? Absolutely, I mean again, I could easily see high
in October, you know, cool off for four to six months,
something like that gets announced, and then it's just the
same thing over again. Yeah, brincereet, for sure, I really
do think that that's probably what's most likely to happen.

Speaker 1 (20:26):
Interesting, Okay, well I like that. You guys, of course
follow Eric over on his YouTube channel. Just jump over
there to Crown right there, easy Crown, you guys can
find him herth there and very easy to do. Let's
get into it with you. I want to, of course
have you back on the show as things start to
transpire here, so we'd love to have you if you
can make it. Welcome in you to your new digs.

(20:48):
Hopefully everything's going well for that as well.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
Solo start. Thank you very much, it's really been a
pleasure and glad to be here and looking forward to
next time. Take care, excellent, appreciate it. Are you guys?

Speaker 1 (20:59):
If you are not part of the Diamond Circle, get
in on that. That's our own private group it's an
email list that you guys can get in on additional
research that we do here on the team. And guess what,
it's absolutely free. All you have to do is hit
the link down below, follow me out there on X
at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here
on The Paul Baron Show.