August 9, 2025 • 16 mins
US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff hikes injected fresh uncertainty into international markets, underscoring Trump’s remaking of the global economic order. President Donald Trump suggested that Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report was “rigged” and that monthly revisions were “concocted.”
~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~ Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBN Use Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!
00:00 Intro
00:09 Sponsor: Tangem
00:35 Events this week
01:20 Trump nukes crypto
02:38 CNBC: Should the BLS commissioner have gotten fired?
04:52 Former Labor Secretary: Should Trump fire the commissioner?
06:21 Elizabeth Warren on the BLS firing & spineless republicans
07:40 Cathie Wood: Worst uncertainty since COVID
09:11 Lynn Alden: Consumer prices will increase in the near future
10:45 Red August?
11:30 EU reconsiders tariffs
12:00 Tom Lee: New highs in 2 weeks
14:00 Tom Lee: $BMNR update
15:40 ETH vs BTC chart
16:22 Outro
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~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~ Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBN Use Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!
00:00 Intro
00:09 Sponsor: Tangem
00:35 Events this week
01:20 Trump nukes crypto
02:38 CNBC: Should the BLS commissioner have gotten fired?
04:52 Former Labor Secretary: Should Trump fire the commissioner?
06:21 Elizabeth Warren on the BLS firing & spineless republicans
07:40 Cathie Wood: Worst uncertainty since COVID
09:11 Lynn Alden: Consumer prices will increase in the near future
10:45 Red August?
11:30 EU reconsiders tariffs
12:00 Tom Lee: New highs in 2 weeks
14:00 Tom Lee: $BMNR update
15:40 ETH vs BTC chart
16:22 Outro
Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://www.paulbarronnetwork.com/store Private Telegram Group (FREE)
➜ PBN Diamond Circle https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx Take your investing to the next level! Forge Membership
➜ https://www.paulbarronnetwork.com/for....css-j9qmi7{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:row;-ms-flex-direction:row;flex-direction:row;font-weight:700;margin-bottom:1rem;margin-top:2.8rem;width:100%;-webkit-box-pack:start;-ms-flex-pack:start;-webkit-justify-content:start;justify-content:start;padding-left:5rem;}@media only screen and (max-width: 599px){.css-j9qmi7{padding-left:0;-webkit-box-pack:center;-ms-flex-pack:center;-webkit-justify-content:center;justify-content:center;}}.css-j9qmi7 svg{fill:#27292D;}.css-j9qmi7 .eagfbvw0{-webkit-align-items:center;-webkit-box-align:center;-ms-flex-align:center;align-items:center;color:#27292D;}
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Let's get into it today. Market uncertainty. Is this a rally?
Can you trust it today? We'll break it down for you.
My name is Paul Barrow. Welcome back into the show.
Let's get started. I do want to thank our sponsor
and that is Tangum. This is where you guys can
get into self custy. This is a hardware wallet that
looks like our credit card, works with your phone. Very
easy to set up, and if you go over to
tangum dot com you can go in and set this
(00:20):
up and also get into a whole process of self
custy and the cool thing here it only takes like
three minutes to set this thing up. Very easy to
get started. Use our link down below. It's going to
give you some additional discounts and you guys can start
your own self custody journey. Let's go over to the headlines,
and of course, this is what's happening this week. We've
got the S and P Global Services, the PMI data
(00:41):
coming in today. We also have the ISM This is
non manufacturing PMI data. This comes on Tuesday, ten year
note auction on Wednesday, jobless claims data on Thursday, which
I'm not sure I'm going to trust that because of
whatever thing has been going on.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Total of five SPED FED speaker events this week, and
then also twenty percent of the S and P five
hundred are going to be able to report earnings, So
that'll give us some indication of how it's been going
around the economy and just in general, because I think
a lot of people are worried about what inflation is
going to be doing over the next few months, and
also whether or not the FED is going to cut rates.
(01:16):
One of the biggest things that was happening last week
and over the weekend.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
You can't make this up.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Trump literally just fired the person who revised the job
report numbers down by two hundred and fifty eight thousand,
and he's questioning whether or not the July numbers are real.
Calling the seventy three thousand numbers is shock only to
conclude that pal should be gone. Point being here, guys
that you probably know my position on this. I've never
trusted these job numbers. They're always revised, and it doesn't
matter if it's Trump's administration, the Biden administration, all of them.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
I don't trust them.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Because I talked to so many CEOs, and they always
tell me the alternate of what's happening. I've mentioned this
so many times on the channel is that these numbers
are always much worse than what we're seeing. So the
real question is how does this affect the market. I
put out a tweet this weekend, seventy three thousand jobs
at IT in July, huge bad side revisions in May
(02:07):
and June. Jimath kind of called it. This is a
very severe job decline. And when you have these kinds
of jobs declining in a market that is already under pressure,
unlikely that we may out of mean getting real inflation data.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
It's possible that we could.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
See a one hundred basis points cut coming in September.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
So things have really flipped around.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Just because I think the job's data was so bad
and so inaccurate that now everybody's starting to question that
very issue. I want to go to a clip real quick,
because this is talking about the BLS commissioner and should
they have gotten fired.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Take a look.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
The BLS commissioner has no say over what the numbers are,
has no opportunity ever to alter the numbers. Grossing as
part of a broad group of economists roundly criticizing the
president's assertion that the numbers were quote rigged for political reasons.
Friends of BLS issued a statement saying, quote this action
for firing doctor mcintarfer is without merit and undermines the
(03:03):
credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of
intelligent economic decision making by businesses, families, and policymakers. Is
anybody shocked that the president would react this way? Everybody
out there understands the way he amstand I am.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm sure good.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
You're about the only guy in America because the markets
is shocked. It's shocking. It is shocking. Rick.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
You know you're too touchy feeling. You know what I
care about. I care about markets.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
My concern, Rick, is you fire somebody because you don't
like the numbers. How much trust will the people have
in the numbers when the next person is appointed and
in charge unless there's a big change.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Oh, let me tell you something, CNBC. I don't think
that Americans have trust in the numbers to start with.
So the fact that we already have a broken system
that's reporting these inaccuracies probably goes to the point that
all these commissioners and all these bureaucrafts.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Should be looked at.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Why are they not fixing a system that's reporting inaccurate data.
If you continue to get inaccurate data, why would you
not go to the source and start to revamp that.
That's the problem that is out there. President Trump announced
the new FED governor. Will be announcing the new FED
governor and also a BLS chief this week. I don't
necessarily agree with the fact that Trump is going to
use his you know, apprentice model of your fired and
(04:24):
just flip around and get the next person in there,
because they're probably going to report bad data too, Because
I think the system itself is the problem, and this
is a factor that's going to be going for quite
some time.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
The good thing is is that you, as business owners
and investors, just ask around, ask and see what's happening
in your own community. Usually you can tell where the
market is leaning without a lot of this you know,
secondary speak that seems to be coming from these major outlets.
We also have a clip here that kind of shows
into whether or not Trump even had the right to
(04:56):
do this.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Take a look.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
First of all, it is very very difficult cult to
tamper or to interfere with these numbers. As has been
mentioned before, hundreds of people have their hands on these
numbers as they are being formulated from the state level
up and the Monday before the Friday of the first
Friday of the month that these numbers are released, the
(05:18):
process is very much locked down. BLS is very concerned
about the security of these numbers. So only about forty people,
but forty is still a lot toward the end in
the last week that deal with these numbers. If anything
were to be awry, I think one of these forty
people in the final analysis would have spoken up. So
(05:38):
it's highly unlikely, and given how much of the BLS
looks toward the integrity of these numbers, that these numbers
are not right. Having said that, I will say the
President does have the right to appoint and replace whoever
he wants to, because this is the commissioner of the
BLS is a political appointee. I hope that the new person,
(05:59):
whoever is will be will be someone who respects the
integrity and the reputation of the institution.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Well, let's hope, so, I mean the integrity and reputation
of the institution so far over the past several years
has been inaccurate. So hopefully they'll get in there and
try to figure out what's wrong. This is, of course,
as Elizabeth Warren, she's taking it on the other side
and simply saying, hey, this is all on the Republicans.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Take a look.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Give data that makes the president happy. That's certainly the
message he's communicating. And when that happens, who believes the
data at a month from now, let's just say good
data come out. How many people have to discount that
data and saying, oh, not really, even if it's bad data,
how many people say, I wonder how much worse it
(06:46):
might have been? Lord, doesn't do.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
You have any expectation that something that you and the
Congress can do about it?
Speaker 4 (06:51):
We have Republicans in theory they could stand up to him,
But I say, in theory, it's the most finalist bunch
of people I've ever seen. This woman who served his
served under Democrats and Republicans. Shoot Marco Rubio jd Vance
voted for confirmed. Where are those Republicans about the business community?
Speaker 2 (07:10):
All right?
Speaker 1 (07:11):
So the I think the key here, guys is just
continue to understand whether or not we see what's interesting
because you've got warrant here. Not really worried that the
data is accurate. More important about how the data is
compiled and delivered to the president. And I think the
key here is is more about how do we fix
the problems that have been out there that apparently have
(07:31):
been resident for some time that I think is what's
causing a little bit of the uncertainty in the market.
I want to go to another clip here because this
will get into Kathy Wood reinforcing that very topic.
Speaker 6 (07:42):
Take a look this chart is depicts economic policy uncertainty.
You can see here that the uncertainty, especially during tariff turmoil,
reached unprecedented levels, so much higher than eighth nine. I
was kind of shocked by that, and higher than COVID.
(08:02):
It has improved, are beginning to adjust to the drama
around tariffs, but you can see very recently, as depicted
by the X, there's been a little bit of a backup,
as I mentioned before, as we come to the end
of tariff turmoil and perhaps have to deal with some
saber rattling on the geopolitical front and some concerns on
(08:25):
the fed front. Many of those will resolve in the
months ahead, all.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Right, concerns on the FED front.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Still thinks that maybe this has peaked, there could be
still some unusual situations ahead of us, especially with the
Trump administration, who has been very, very unpredictable. The other
thing that you have to kind of consider things that
I think are maybe not so unpredictable.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
And I'm coming to.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
The realization that maybe inflation is going to be affected
in a longer term, part in part by tariffs, but
also I think it's in part by data now that
appears to be maybe already inaccurate. And I think this
is something that we have to pay attention to because
it's going to have an effect on what we'll see
in the risk markets. Here's linn Alden talking about that
(09:10):
very point.
Speaker 7 (09:10):
Take a look, there's a lot of uncertainty. You know,
estimated forward tariff phrase are pretty similar to what they
were back in April before the de escalation, and yet
the market is at all time highs, credit spreads and
narrow there's really little concern there's more risk from tariffs
than is probably being priced in UH and so there's
really there's not much sign that foreign exporters are absorbing
(09:34):
the cost because the importers pulled in a lot of
products ahead of time that gave them some buffer before
they have to really kind of pass on costs to consumers.
I do think that'll increase and trickle out to consumer prices,
all right.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
So what Lynn hit on a couple of things there
is that her belief is that we are going to
continue to see more rise in inflation in general, maybe
in the fact that some of these manufacturers and retailers
are front loaded, which has caused a little bit of
the inflation already. My point is is that if you
look at the restaurant industry highly connected to that, I've
seen it and talked to a lot of CEOs in
(10:09):
that space, most of which took price. When they raise prices,
they take price, and they've done it over the last
eighteen months. The problem that they're getting into now is
the declining traffic, the declining sales. They cannot raise prices now.
With declining sales continue to impede on that. At some
point they will be forced to and they'll have to
(10:30):
deal with that. Or at some point you're going to
start seeing closures, which is more job loss. So this
is a very double edged sword that we're leaning into
right Now the question is how does this all affect
the markets. If you look at the stock market in general,
this is a potential for warry for twenty twenty five.
And if you look at this in August, second term presidency,
(10:50):
most of the time this has been down and it's
very possible we can see that happening again this month.
Pending again all on what is leaning into what will
happen with the FED, because that is most likely going
to be the biggest factor. If you look at where
the risk markets have been every cycle after August, having
for bitcoin has delivered big returns twenty thirteen, seventeen twenty one,
(11:12):
you can kind of see the numbers right there, and
we had a having in twenty twenty four, So it's
very possible we could be right on the verge of
another big return month for bitcoin. And if we see
all time highs coming faster in risk markets, then it
starts to really open up some very interesting things. Another
factor here is the EU. They are now starting to
(11:33):
reconsider the planned US tariffs and this is going to
be around six months to allow for trade talks to continue.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
I thought the deal was done. As usual.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Trump is a very fluid negotiator, and it's a scenario
where it doesn't seem like we have a deal with
anyone until we have a deal. I guess we have
a deal kind of thing. But this is all starting
to affect the markets. However, with that being said, here's
Tom Ly talking about whether or not we can see
all time highs.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Take a look last week.
Speaker 8 (12:01):
The market's definitely retrenched. You know you've been solidly bullished
since you know, Liberation Day, but last week was this
set back. In August is not always a great month.
You think we get a little bit of choppiness. Here
are you still bullish?
Speaker 9 (12:17):
Well, last week was definitely consolidation because we had five
days where the market opened higher and closed lower. And
they call that bearish and golfing. It makes sense because
we're consolidating that twenty eight percent gain from the April
lows and on the job stuff. I think it's just
the data is catching up to what we already know.
The labor market's been soft, right, So it's I think
(12:39):
a positive setup because now the Fed has more ammunition
to make a dubvish pivot in the fall, and it's
not too late because we know the thing that they're
going to stimulate is the housing market. And you had
a couple guests earlier talking about that, and so that
is what strengthens the economy in twenty twenty six. So
I think it's quite a positive set up. We're just
(13:00):
consolidating and then we make a bigger move higher by.
Speaker 8 (13:03):
The end of the year or what target are you
using now and what timeframe?
Speaker 9 (13:07):
I think we're going to rally pretty strongly in August,
So I think, yeah, I think we can get back
to sixty five or get to sixty five, sixty six
hundred all time highs this in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 8 (13:18):
And then seven thousand in the next twelve months.
Speaker 9 (13:21):
Above that, yeah, probably well above that, next well above that. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
All right, So again the bear up, I should say,
the hyper bull out there, and that of course is
Tom Lee. A couple of points he hit on there
to be very cognizant of. If we do see lower
rates coming, he is correct, that's going to affect the
job market, or excuse me, the real estate market, which
will affect the job market. We'll see more construction that
all flows down into the economy. Does it mean that
(13:46):
we end up seeing more jobs kind of stabilize. It
is very possible that that could happen if you believe
in that model. The key here is the timing in
which that has to occur, and the other factors is
how global economics continue to pressure on the market, so
be aware of that. Here's Tom Lee talking about BM
and R, which is the eth treasure company that he
(14:07):
is a chair on, and he explains a little bit
about how Wall Street might be waking up to it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Take a look.
Speaker 9 (14:12):
But today we announced that we reached almost three billion
dollars worth of eth and.
Speaker 8 (14:18):
The largest eth over then, Yeah.
Speaker 9 (14:21):
The largest youth treasury in the world, and the third
largest crypto treasury in the world. And we also announced
that Bill Miller the third made a major investment last
week into Bitmind, so he joins Kathy Woods in investing
in our company in the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 8 (14:34):
Which you're simple, It is Bitlin.
Speaker 9 (14:36):
It's ticker b M and ARM and the stock now
is around thirty two so in the past four four
dollars and fifty cents.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Yeah, I love it. It's the NBC scrambling there. What's
that tigger? What's that tigger? It's just intriguing to me.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
To watch the architecture of Wall Street playing out in
front of us. Here is his tweet on the milestone
for bitmin again back to eight hundred thirty three thousand
man holding eight hundred and thirty three thousand ethereum right now.
At the price and where it is and the potential
for that, I mean, this could be a ten billion
dollar company in a very fast form.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
And that's if they don't even invest.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
I mean, that's just continuing to hold, and likelihood is
they're going to continue to push hard. Look at how
fast this thing is growing on the charts if you
compared that to the dat size overall compared. And that's
of course micro strategy right there, strategy in their particular
growth track. So maybe BEM and R on the move.
(15:35):
Let's take a look at bitcoin in general. I want
to show the bitcoin eh chart real quick. This was
the reversal that we saw over the weekend, so big
move there. Eth also rebounded quickly and is now trading
well above thirty seven right now on Monday, in and
out of that key here to watch those guys, I
think is going to be the dominance if this reverses
(15:56):
and holds back down to this point right here, around
sixty percent. Then maybe this could be the recovery that
starts to get us into all coin season. All that
still up in the air, so be aware of that.
Last couple of things I want to hit on right here.
Sharplink also hit on this the inflection point for Ethereum.
It's no longer an experiment. Everybody's on top of this,
(16:17):
so be on the lookout right now. I think ETH
continues its mass adoption. If you're not part of the
Diamond Circle, get in on that. It's our own private
group where you guys can join absolutely free, and of
course follow me on x at Paul Baron. I'll catch
you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
Let's get into it today. Market uncertainty. Is this a rally?
Can you trust it today? We'll break it down for you.
My name is Paul Barrow. Welcome back into the show.
Let's get started. I do want to thank our sponsor
and that is Tangum. This is where you guys can
get into self custy. This is a hardware wallet that
looks like our credit card, works with your phone. Very
easy to set up, and if you go over to
tangum dot com you can go in and set this
(00:20):
up and also get into a whole process of self
custy and the cool thing here it only takes like
three minutes to set this thing up. Very easy to
get started. Use our link down below. It's going to
give you some additional discounts and you guys can start
your own self custody journey. Let's go over to the headlines,
and of course, this is what's happening this week. We've
got the S and P Global Services, the PMI data
(00:41):
coming in today. We also have the ISM This is
non manufacturing PMI data. This comes on Tuesday, ten year
note auction on Wednesday, jobless claims data on Thursday, which
I'm not sure I'm going to trust that because of
whatever thing has been going on.
Speaker 2 (00:55):
We'll talk about that.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
Total of five SPED FED speaker events this week, and
then also twenty percent of the S and P five
hundred are going to be able to report earnings, So
that'll give us some indication of how it's been going
around the economy and just in general, because I think
a lot of people are worried about what inflation is
going to be doing over the next few months, and
also whether or not the FED is going to cut rates.
(01:16):
One of the biggest things that was happening last week
and over the weekend.
Speaker 2 (01:21):
You can't make this up.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Trump literally just fired the person who revised the job
report numbers down by two hundred and fifty eight thousand,
and he's questioning whether or not the July numbers are real.
Calling the seventy three thousand numbers is shock only to
conclude that pal should be gone. Point being here, guys
that you probably know my position on this. I've never
trusted these job numbers. They're always revised, and it doesn't
matter if it's Trump's administration, the Biden administration, all of them.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
I don't trust them.
Speaker 1 (01:45):
Because I talked to so many CEOs, and they always
tell me the alternate of what's happening. I've mentioned this
so many times on the channel is that these numbers
are always much worse than what we're seeing. So the
real question is how does this affect the market. I
put out a tweet this weekend, seventy three thousand jobs
at IT in July, huge bad side revisions in May
(02:07):
and June. Jimath kind of called it. This is a
very severe job decline. And when you have these kinds
of jobs declining in a market that is already under pressure,
unlikely that we may out of mean getting real inflation data.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
It's possible that we could.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
See a one hundred basis points cut coming in September.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
So things have really flipped around.
Speaker 1 (02:29):
Just because I think the job's data was so bad
and so inaccurate that now everybody's starting to question that
very issue. I want to go to a clip real quick,
because this is talking about the BLS commissioner and should
they have gotten fired.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Take a look.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
The BLS commissioner has no say over what the numbers are,
has no opportunity ever to alter the numbers. Grossing as
part of a broad group of economists roundly criticizing the
president's assertion that the numbers were quote rigged for political reasons.
Friends of BLS issued a statement saying, quote this action
for firing doctor mcintarfer is without merit and undermines the
(03:03):
credibility of federal economic statistics that are a cornerstone of
intelligent economic decision making by businesses, families, and policymakers. Is
anybody shocked that the president would react this way? Everybody
out there understands the way he amstand I am.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
I'm sure good.
Speaker 3 (03:24):
You're about the only guy in America because the markets
is shocked. It's shocking. It is shocking. Rick.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
You know you're too touchy feeling. You know what I
care about. I care about markets.
Speaker 3 (03:34):
My concern, Rick, is you fire somebody because you don't
like the numbers. How much trust will the people have
in the numbers when the next person is appointed and
in charge unless there's a big change.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
Oh, let me tell you something, CNBC. I don't think
that Americans have trust in the numbers to start with.
So the fact that we already have a broken system
that's reporting these inaccuracies probably goes to the point that
all these commissioners and all these bureaucrafts.
Speaker 2 (04:01):
Should be looked at.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Why are they not fixing a system that's reporting inaccurate data.
If you continue to get inaccurate data, why would you
not go to the source and start to revamp that.
That's the problem that is out there. President Trump announced
the new FED governor. Will be announcing the new FED
governor and also a BLS chief this week. I don't
necessarily agree with the fact that Trump is going to
use his you know, apprentice model of your fired and
(04:24):
just flip around and get the next person in there,
because they're probably going to report bad data too, Because
I think the system itself is the problem, and this
is a factor that's going to be going for quite
some time.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Guys.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
The good thing is is that you, as business owners
and investors, just ask around, ask and see what's happening
in your own community. Usually you can tell where the
market is leaning without a lot of this you know,
secondary speak that seems to be coming from these major outlets.
We also have a clip here that kind of shows
into whether or not Trump even had the right to
(04:56):
do this.
Speaker 2 (04:56):
Take a look.
Speaker 5 (04:58):
First of all, it is very very difficult cult to
tamper or to interfere with these numbers. As has been
mentioned before, hundreds of people have their hands on these
numbers as they are being formulated from the state level
up and the Monday before the Friday of the first
Friday of the month that these numbers are released, the
(05:18):
process is very much locked down. BLS is very concerned
about the security of these numbers. So only about forty people,
but forty is still a lot toward the end in
the last week that deal with these numbers. If anything
were to be awry, I think one of these forty
people in the final analysis would have spoken up. So
(05:38):
it's highly unlikely, and given how much of the BLS
looks toward the integrity of these numbers, that these numbers
are not right. Having said that, I will say the
President does have the right to appoint and replace whoever
he wants to, because this is the commissioner of the
BLS is a political appointee. I hope that the new person,
(05:59):
whoever is will be will be someone who respects the
integrity and the reputation of the institution.
Speaker 1 (06:08):
Well, let's hope, so, I mean the integrity and reputation
of the institution so far over the past several years
has been inaccurate. So hopefully they'll get in there and
try to figure out what's wrong. This is, of course,
as Elizabeth Warren, she's taking it on the other side
and simply saying, hey, this is all on the Republicans.
Speaker 2 (06:24):
Take a look.
Speaker 4 (06:25):
Give data that makes the president happy. That's certainly the
message he's communicating. And when that happens, who believes the
data at a month from now, let's just say good
data come out. How many people have to discount that
data and saying, oh, not really, even if it's bad data,
how many people say, I wonder how much worse it
(06:46):
might have been? Lord, doesn't do.
Speaker 1 (06:48):
You have any expectation that something that you and the
Congress can do about it?
Speaker 4 (06:51):
We have Republicans in theory they could stand up to him,
But I say, in theory, it's the most finalist bunch
of people I've ever seen. This woman who served his
served under Democrats and Republicans. Shoot Marco Rubio jd Vance
voted for confirmed. Where are those Republicans about the business community?
Speaker 2 (07:10):
All right?
Speaker 1 (07:11):
So the I think the key here, guys is just
continue to understand whether or not we see what's interesting
because you've got warrant here. Not really worried that the
data is accurate. More important about how the data is
compiled and delivered to the president. And I think the
key here is is more about how do we fix
the problems that have been out there that apparently have
(07:31):
been resident for some time that I think is what's
causing a little bit of the uncertainty in the market.
I want to go to another clip here because this
will get into Kathy Wood reinforcing that very topic.
Speaker 6 (07:42):
Take a look this chart is depicts economic policy uncertainty.
You can see here that the uncertainty, especially during tariff turmoil,
reached unprecedented levels, so much higher than eighth nine. I
was kind of shocked by that, and higher than COVID.
(08:02):
It has improved, are beginning to adjust to the drama
around tariffs, but you can see very recently, as depicted
by the X, there's been a little bit of a backup,
as I mentioned before, as we come to the end
of tariff turmoil and perhaps have to deal with some
saber rattling on the geopolitical front and some concerns on
(08:25):
the fed front. Many of those will resolve in the
months ahead, all.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Right, concerns on the FED front.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Still thinks that maybe this has peaked, there could be
still some unusual situations ahead of us, especially with the
Trump administration, who has been very, very unpredictable. The other
thing that you have to kind of consider things that
I think are maybe not so unpredictable.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
And I'm coming to.
Speaker 1 (08:49):
The realization that maybe inflation is going to be affected
in a longer term, part in part by tariffs, but
also I think it's in part by data now that
appears to be maybe already inaccurate. And I think this
is something that we have to pay attention to because
it's going to have an effect on what we'll see
in the risk markets. Here's linn Alden talking about that
(09:10):
very point.
Speaker 7 (09:10):
Take a look, there's a lot of uncertainty. You know,
estimated forward tariff phrase are pretty similar to what they
were back in April before the de escalation, and yet
the market is at all time highs, credit spreads and
narrow there's really little concern there's more risk from tariffs
than is probably being priced in UH and so there's
really there's not much sign that foreign exporters are absorbing
(09:34):
the cost because the importers pulled in a lot of
products ahead of time that gave them some buffer before
they have to really kind of pass on costs to consumers.
I do think that'll increase and trickle out to consumer prices,
all right.
Speaker 1 (09:48):
So what Lynn hit on a couple of things there
is that her belief is that we are going to
continue to see more rise in inflation in general, maybe
in the fact that some of these manufacturers and retailers
are front loaded, which has caused a little bit of
the inflation already. My point is is that if you
look at the restaurant industry highly connected to that, I've
seen it and talked to a lot of CEOs in
(10:09):
that space, most of which took price. When they raise prices,
they take price, and they've done it over the last
eighteen months. The problem that they're getting into now is
the declining traffic, the declining sales. They cannot raise prices now.
With declining sales continue to impede on that. At some
point they will be forced to and they'll have to
(10:30):
deal with that. Or at some point you're going to
start seeing closures, which is more job loss. So this
is a very double edged sword that we're leaning into
right Now the question is how does this all affect
the markets. If you look at the stock market in general,
this is a potential for warry for twenty twenty five.
And if you look at this in August, second term presidency,
(10:50):
most of the time this has been down and it's
very possible we can see that happening again this month.
Pending again all on what is leaning into what will
happen with the FED, because that is most likely going
to be the biggest factor. If you look at where
the risk markets have been every cycle after August, having
for bitcoin has delivered big returns twenty thirteen, seventeen twenty one,
(11:12):
you can kind of see the numbers right there, and
we had a having in twenty twenty four, So it's
very possible we could be right on the verge of
another big return month for bitcoin. And if we see
all time highs coming faster in risk markets, then it
starts to really open up some very interesting things. Another
factor here is the EU. They are now starting to
(11:33):
reconsider the planned US tariffs and this is going to
be around six months to allow for trade talks to continue.
Speaker 2 (11:38):
I thought the deal was done. As usual.
Speaker 1 (11:41):
Trump is a very fluid negotiator, and it's a scenario
where it doesn't seem like we have a deal with
anyone until we have a deal. I guess we have
a deal kind of thing. But this is all starting
to affect the markets. However, with that being said, here's
Tom Ly talking about whether or not we can see
all time highs.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
Take a look last week.
Speaker 8 (12:01):
The market's definitely retrenched. You know you've been solidly bullished
since you know, Liberation Day, but last week was this
set back. In August is not always a great month.
You think we get a little bit of choppiness. Here
are you still bullish?
Speaker 9 (12:17):
Well, last week was definitely consolidation because we had five
days where the market opened higher and closed lower. And
they call that bearish and golfing. It makes sense because
we're consolidating that twenty eight percent gain from the April
lows and on the job stuff. I think it's just
the data is catching up to what we already know.
The labor market's been soft, right, So it's I think
(12:39):
a positive setup because now the Fed has more ammunition
to make a dubvish pivot in the fall, and it's
not too late because we know the thing that they're
going to stimulate is the housing market. And you had
a couple guests earlier talking about that, and so that
is what strengthens the economy in twenty twenty six. So
I think it's quite a positive set up. We're just
(13:00):
consolidating and then we make a bigger move higher by.
Speaker 8 (13:03):
The end of the year or what target are you
using now and what timeframe?
Speaker 9 (13:07):
I think we're going to rally pretty strongly in August,
So I think, yeah, I think we can get back
to sixty five or get to sixty five, sixty six
hundred all time highs this in the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 8 (13:18):
And then seven thousand in the next twelve months.
Speaker 9 (13:21):
Above that, yeah, probably well above that, next well above that. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (13:25):
All right, So again the bear up, I should say,
the hyper bull out there, and that of course is
Tom Lee. A couple of points he hit on there
to be very cognizant of. If we do see lower
rates coming, he is correct, that's going to affect the
job market, or excuse me, the real estate market, which
will affect the job market. We'll see more construction that
all flows down into the economy. Does it mean that
(13:46):
we end up seeing more jobs kind of stabilize. It
is very possible that that could happen if you believe
in that model. The key here is the timing in
which that has to occur, and the other factors is
how global economics continue to pressure on the market, so
be aware of that. Here's Tom Lee talking about BM
and R, which is the eth treasure company that he
(14:07):
is a chair on, and he explains a little bit
about how Wall Street might be waking up to it.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Take a look.
Speaker 9 (14:12):
But today we announced that we reached almost three billion
dollars worth of eth and.
Speaker 8 (14:18):
The largest eth over then, Yeah.
Speaker 9 (14:21):
The largest youth treasury in the world, and the third
largest crypto treasury in the world. And we also announced
that Bill Miller the third made a major investment last
week into Bitmind, so he joins Kathy Woods in investing
in our company in the past couple of weeks.
Speaker 8 (14:34):
Which you're simple, It is Bitlin.
Speaker 9 (14:36):
It's ticker b M and ARM and the stock now
is around thirty two so in the past four four
dollars and fifty cents.
Speaker 2 (14:44):
Yeah, I love it. It's the NBC scrambling there. What's
that tigger? What's that tigger? It's just intriguing to me.
Speaker 1 (14:52):
To watch the architecture of Wall Street playing out in
front of us. Here is his tweet on the milestone
for bitmin again back to eight hundred thirty three thousand
man holding eight hundred and thirty three thousand ethereum right now.
At the price and where it is and the potential
for that, I mean, this could be a ten billion
dollar company in a very fast form.
Speaker 2 (15:13):
And that's if they don't even invest.
Speaker 1 (15:14):
I mean, that's just continuing to hold, and likelihood is
they're going to continue to push hard. Look at how
fast this thing is growing on the charts if you
compared that to the dat size overall compared. And that's
of course micro strategy right there, strategy in their particular
growth track. So maybe BEM and R on the move.
(15:35):
Let's take a look at bitcoin in general. I want
to show the bitcoin eh chart real quick. This was
the reversal that we saw over the weekend, so big
move there. Eth also rebounded quickly and is now trading
well above thirty seven right now on Monday, in and
out of that key here to watch those guys, I
think is going to be the dominance if this reverses
(15:56):
and holds back down to this point right here, around
sixty percent. Then maybe this could be the recovery that
starts to get us into all coin season. All that
still up in the air, so be aware of that.
Last couple of things I want to hit on right here.
Sharplink also hit on this the inflection point for Ethereum.
It's no longer an experiment. Everybody's on top of this,
(16:17):
so be on the lookout right now. I think ETH
continues its mass adoption. If you're not part of the
Diamond Circle, get in on that. It's our own private
group where you guys can join absolutely free, and of
course follow me on x at Paul Baron. I'll catch
you next time right here on the Paul Baron Show.
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