October 22, 2025 • 20 mins
Gold and silver saw their steepest selloff in years as investors locked in profits on concern that the recent historic rally in the precious metals left them overvalued.
GUEST: Chris Marcus, Arcadia Economics
Arcadia Youtube Channel ➜ https://bit.ly/ArcadiaChannel
00:00 Intro
00:10 Google trends
01:30 Commodities Season: Beginning or Ending?
03:00 Why did Gold & Silver crash?
06:10 What would it take to create a “failure to deliver” moment on silver?
08:00 Did silver bottom?
10:15 Best way to buy silver?
11:30 Will rotation to from gold to Bitcoin & Silver continue?
12:20 Silver price outlook
14:00 Tokenized silver could exacerbate the supply crisis?
15:45 Could silver benefit from gold losing to bitcoin?
16:30 Silver end of year price prediction
18:50 Gold vs Silver as an investment
20:00 Outro
#Crypto #Silver #Gold
~Silver & Gold Bloodbath🔥w/ Chris Marcus @arcadiaeconomics ~
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GUEST: Chris Marcus, Arcadia Economics
Arcadia Youtube Channel ➜ https://bit.ly/ArcadiaChannel
00:00 Intro
00:10 Google trends
01:30 Commodities Season: Beginning or Ending?
03:00 Why did Gold & Silver crash?
06:10 What would it take to create a “failure to deliver” moment on silver?
08:00 Did silver bottom?
10:15 Best way to buy silver?
11:30 Will rotation to from gold to Bitcoin & Silver continue?
12:20 Silver price outlook
14:00 Tokenized silver could exacerbate the supply crisis?
15:45 Could silver benefit from gold losing to bitcoin?
16:30 Silver end of year price prediction
18:50 Gold vs Silver as an investment
20:00 Outro
#Crypto #Silver #Gold
~Silver & Gold Bloodbath🔥w/ Chris Marcus @arcadiaeconomics ~
⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺⎺
Join our community!
Diamond Circle Email (FREE)➜ https://bit.ly/pbnmembership
Private Telegram Group (FREE) ➜ https://t.me/+nISqoMxrok40NTcx
Subscribe on YouTube ✅ https://bit.ly/PBNYoutubeSubscribe
X/Twitter 📱 http://bit.ly/PBNtwitter
Get official PBN merch! ➜ https://merch.paulbarronnetwork.com/
~ The Best Self Custody Wallet ➜ https://tangem.com/en/ Use Code PBN for Additional Discounts!
~ The Best Crypto Exchange ➜ Coinbase, get up to $200 in crypto - coinbase-consumer.sjv.io/BARRON
~ Looking for the best tax havens for Crypto? Free Month with iTrust Capital ➜ Use PROMO CODE - PAUL BARRON https://rebrand.ly/PAULBARRON
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Silver and gold are taking a bloodbath right now. Today
we want to break into a little bit more about
what's happening in the market. You don't want to miss
this one today, guys. Let's just jump right into it.
Let's go over to Google Trends, and if you look
at what's going on with Google trends right now with
silver price, gold price, and bitcoin price, you can start
to see a lot of things centering around, but all
(00:23):
very interesting in terms of the amount of people that
are starting to look at this, And we wanted to
bring in an expert to kind of really break this
down because there's been a big retraacement here. So Chris
is joining me, coming over from Arcadia Economics. If you
guys have not checked out his YouTube channel.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Right here, it is, jump over there. He's got a
lot of videos that are.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Very dialed into what's happening in the precious metals market.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
So welcome to the show, Chris.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
How are you, Paul, I'm doing great, Thanks so much
for having me here, And like you quite well pointed out,
it's not only a fascinating time in the silver market,
but really a historic time which I think things have
happened so quickly that. I mean age just what we've
seen over the past two years with the gold and
silver rally, and then that has been stunning in itself,
(01:09):
and then sure enough, there are people who've been waiting
forty five years to see silver break through fifty.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
We finally saw that happen last week.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Obviously, there's been a correction this week, which I think
some people.
Speaker 4 (01:21):
Are a little concerned about, and as we.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Can dig into, I think anytime you have something move
as much as it has, you might want to be
prepared for additional volatility.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
But it's it's wild what's happening right now.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Do you feel that the commodity market right now is
topping or is this just a normal correction and you
feel like there's more more life left in this.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I mean, I guess in that context that would lead
more towards the topping. I suppose it depends on what
timeframe someone's looking at.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Well, we've seen the.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Silver price come down a little bit, we've seen some
of the indications of and as we can get into,
I think it's safe to say that the silver market
a degree broke on October ninth, So we're seeing some
of that get resolved. Although if you take a step
out of the precious metals for a second and think
about what is happening with the Trump administration in response
(02:15):
to the fact that we're now at that point where
because of what's happened with manufacturing over the past twenty
five years and we're seeing it playing out with the
rare earths, that it's that situation that's not so ideal
where it's like, China, can we keep having some material
if we want to go to war and use it
against you? So we've reached Paul, I know you've heard
(02:38):
it for year as well. One day, you know, the
kicking the can down the road. We've finally gotten there
where this system is now preventing the military from doing
what the government wants it to do. So that's why
we're seeing a broader shift, which is being signified by
what's happening with the metals as we speak.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
But when you look at gold and silver right now,
was do you feel like that was the reason that
we saw the big crash and pullback. Why would we
not see more strength in these metals with this kind
of tension going on and also the fact that we've
got the dollar devaluing at the same time.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
When you see the crash and the pullback. Are you
talking about just the last couple of days?
Speaker 4 (03:19):
A couple of days, yeah, I mean gold.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Was thirty three hundred bucks on August eighteenth. It'd gone
up one thousand dollars in two months. These are haven't
measured the exact pace against twenty eleven. I think this
last leg may have out done it. You could take
any market in any scenario blindly, and if you see
(03:41):
a move like that, there's going to be days where
it sells off.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
So more just profit taking is kind of what you're
getting at.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I mean, there's I guess you could, Yeah, you could
call it that. I mean, there's going to be corrections,
and especially we saw what happened when silver cross thirty
dollars and then just bust right through. There were a
lot of fireworks around that, and I thought when we
get to fifty, you were likely to see that.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Sure enough, we have.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Nothing has changed in terms of the underlying reasons, and
there still is not just what I was starting to
say and others were starting to say, but now Bloomberg,
according to them, references and someone familiar with the LBMAS,
thinking that the LBMA doesn't think this is just the
silver is.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
Here and we need it here.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Bloomberg cited them as saying a genuine shortage.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
So you believe there is one, You believe the shortage
is real. We're starting to see this play out in
the markets, even though there are some corrections for it.
Is this supply shock actually going to continue going forward?
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Well, it's nuanced. So let me be clear. We are
we actually running out of silver?
Speaker 3 (04:51):
No, because a lot of silver went over to the
Comax earlier this year, So right now they're playing a
silver in the US. Although India has to halt new
additions into their silver ETFs back beginning on October ninth,
articles set at the time that they expected the silver
in the next shipment, although in Bloomberg article they said
(05:12):
bloom JP Morgan was telling clients they're not going to
have any silver for India until at least end of
October into November. Then last week we saw the Royal
Mint talk about delays and getting the silver that they need.
And then a couple of days after that was when
Bloomberg put out the articles saying that the LBMA folks
(05:33):
are suggesting because I was trying to distinguish specifically what
you're saying there, is it just you could say there's
a shortage in India. We're seeing products shortages and other
areas around the globe. We're seeing there's clearly a shortage
in the London market. Now some metal has started leaving
the Comax which is presumably going to London or maybe
(05:56):
even directly to India. And it was very talking to
see that LBMA comment that they are calling Bloomberg referred
to them as saying a genuine shortage.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
So, okay, the evidence is piling up on that.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
What would it take right now for to create an
Andy Scheckman who comes on our show a lot.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
He's a big silver.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Guy and he's been talking about this with me over
the past six months, is that there there is a
problem or could be a problem on a failure to deliver.
What would it take for a failure to deliver occur,
especially in silver.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Well, there's a school of thought that that actually did
occur back on October ninth. It does appear that something
of that nature happened. Normally the futures trades over the
spot price right right, that got inverted with the London
spot price going over the futures price, and on October ninth,
I mean if it goes over by thirty or forty
(06:52):
cent sets a lot. Morning of October ninth it was
about a buck twenty over, and by eleven o'clock that
morning it had gone up to two fifty sold out
in India. Panic in London how the silver market broke.
So what you're seeing is that they do have a shortage.
And as that price went up, metals started coming from
the comacs again, presumably back to London, although I don't
(07:16):
see that as a long term fixed because what ultimately
got us here in the first place is that and
I know Andy's probably told you plenty about this, yeah,
is that you have the free float in London has
been declining, and now we've had banks writing about it.
I've been talking about it, other people have been speaking
of it, and we finally hit the danger zone where
(07:38):
the amount of silver to underpin the physical market.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Is too low. So right now we're going to see
where else it comes from.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
But that still will not address the longer term issue
if we keep running deficits and growing and midst growing
industrial demand.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
It appears that a lot of the countries are also
trying to lock it in, as well as some of
these exchanges that are trying to sell it, and then
you've got the situation with the ETFs that also play
into this. You would think that silver would still be
on maybe just a short correction and a track back up.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Do you feel like we have hit.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
The bottom on silver just yesterday or do you think
that it has a shot to go back to forty dollars.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
I think you're in an environment where people should not
be surprised by extreme moves in other directions.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
Okay, because as we've.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Learned over the past couple of years, decades, for some
there is what's happening in the physical market, and there's
also what's happening as priced by the COMEX futures.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
And despite the times of what we.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Think would be logical and how they should be correlated,
you have a lot especially now, you've had mainstream money
piling in now, so that is really started over the
past two months, the commodities and the stocks.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
So you have a lot of people that know very
little about.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Anything we just said here that are pushing money back
and forth. Similar to how we saw silver go to
twelve dollars when COVID broke out, and then a couple
months later finally broke through twenty was at twenty nine
bucks a couple of weeks later. I would suggest that
we're in an environment where it would be wise to
be prepared for big swings. I think it's possible the
(09:20):
price of silver is lowered than it is today five
or ten years from now. I think that's pretty unlikely.
But in terms of saying that the bottom is in
or it can't go lower, not saying that it necessarily will.
But you have a lot of hot money flowing around there,
and you're I would suggest not to be surprised by
(09:40):
the types of moves that we saw this past Friday
and yesterday, because you are going to see that.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, and you look at the market tenacity that we're
dealing with right now. A lot of people look at
these rotations that seem to be occurring.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Some people said gold.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Some analysts are saying we're seeing gold rotation, coming out
of gold into bitcoin, some saying we're coming out of
digital assets and into precious metals. There's a lot of
money on the sidelines as well as into some of
these critical assets that are starting to move around to
your point. One thing I want to kind of clarify
because a lot of people are trying to figure out
(10:18):
how do you get silver, and in many cases they
might just go out and buy, you know, SLV or
another alternative. What would be the best way if you're
not looking to say, take physical delivery for silver, what
would you say is the best if.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
You just wanted price exposure.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
For a price exposure on silver?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I mean, in that case, I think SLV is fine
to use it for that if you're concerned about how
does this unravel when the debt loads are actually addressed,
and certainly I think silver is more appropriate for that.
But you know, if you think you want to put
a trade on because silver is going to go up
a dollar tomorrow, I mean you don't want to do
(10:58):
that with physical silver because you're going to.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Be paying exhibtion. We're going to heat that up.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So shorter term stuff, yeah, solb or it's also AGQ,
which is a leveraged one. I probably should have said
that because not appropriate.
Speaker 4 (11:11):
For most people. But yeah, the etf.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
OK for a short term move, but I think physical
has its rightful place for what most people are trying
to capture or likely watching this, Chris.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Do you think we're going to see more bleeding of
gold into bitcoin if in fact that is what is happening,
because it's kind of you could go either way right
now because gold and bitcoin are both down this week.
What what's your thought on that?
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Oh, I mean, I guess that's possible with the way
a lot of stuff is.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
I'll go programmed right now.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Yes, there's an overlap, although I find the bitcoin and
precious metals markets very often tend to do their.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Own thing as well. Yeah. Yeah, And as you well know,
there's also a lot of peopleeople who are one or
the other.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
I don't know that it has to be that way,
and I see people getting all angry and or out
of fighting about it. Yet slightly different profile between the two,
So I would not think that that's going to necessarily
be driving gold further.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
We had an expert on the show yesterday, and this
was a company called Denario. They are a tokenized silver
and they basically hold that against a token that goes
against backed you know, physical back silver, which is industrial grade.
They's you know, kind of an interesting scenario there with Donario.
(12:39):
But the point I wanted to bring up was is
I asked him what he thought silver's top could be,
and he felt like we could see triple digits on silver.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
What's your opinion.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
I think that's really good happen.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
I mean, if you have a break and an overt
shortage where you don't have you have manufacturers that can't get.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
What they need to use. Probably the comp I look to.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
I don't know if you have a cocoa chart handy there,
but they finally ran into those supply issues and been
trading around. I think it was like two thousand dollars
a contract for the last two decades and then.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
It shot up to nine or ten thousand.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Also, we saw in the nickel market briefly a few
years back what happens when someone gets caught off side
with a short position. So I mean hundreds of big price.
So can it get there?
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
See, like we've gotten to the point where there's an
issue in LBMA, does it get resolved?
Speaker 4 (13:31):
Does it get resolved for half long? But you know
metal's going back there.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
But if we're a month from now and that issue
has gotten worse and people are starting to realize that
there's a shortage in a scramble, I think that or
if you finally have the treasure, you get to the
point where they just run into a problem they can't
get out of. I think you kind of need something
like that before you're going to see triple digits.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Triple digits.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
Okay, all right, So there's a couple of things that
are happening in the gold market. This has mostly been
looked at in terms of token ized commodities. We track
this one pretty heavily, obviously, tether gold, paxos.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Holding in there.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
But you can kind of see the growth that we've
seen a very short period of time of assets rolling
into xaut paxos gold.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
But yet we have not seen this in silver.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Obviously, there's not a token ised silver available at least
that we know of outside of these you know, very
obscure ones like what we saw with the DSc token
we were talking about yesterday, And you look at this,
Is this a better opportunity to maybe hedge these markets
by going into these digital versions who are physical, you know,
buying physical assets to back that token. Is that a
(14:44):
better hedge going in versus just going in and buying
you know, physical and trying to take delivery for.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Gold and silver.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
One of the advantages that you can have is that
if it is designed correctly and you want to actually
send someone one hundred dollars worth of to another part
of the globe. Yeah, that what I think could be useful,
and I think we'll see more of that. There's certainly
some of those out there now. Of course, in today's environment,
(15:12):
like with any investment or any company, you want to
be careful because certainly we have seen than when money
is flowing into a market, especially like is happening in
gold and silver. Now, I imagine we'll continue to see them.
So it would just be very careful with the research
and unless you can't hold it or you're going to
need to be sending it, you know, at least think
(15:33):
of physical as a first step.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Yeah, I understand, and you know, I hear it so
much from a lot of the silver guys, is that
they're really pushed the physical attribution of precious metals in
general when you look at the benefits of where gold
and silver kind of play, especially when you throw bitcoin
into the crowd, because this seems to be the discussion
(15:56):
right now, is bitcoin silver gold? Those are the discussions
that investors are looking at in terms of alternatives could
silver benefit from gold actually losing to bitcoin? So if
gold starts to slide, bitcoin starts to move, do you
think we could see a rotation into silver.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
I would think if you have a significant downfall in
the gold price, silver would probably most likely to match.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
That on Okay, so I'd follow along, all right? Interesting?
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Last question I have for you is silver price prediction.
Do you have an end of year I know yours
is a much longer time horizon around the silver market,
but if you were looking at this by end of year,
is anywhere you're kind of pointing to on the silver chart.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Oh, let's see if we're in October twenty second. Now
I'll pick my end of year unofficial target of let's
say fifty eight. With the possibility that you could find
out we have another flare up with what's happening at
the LBMA and any what happens there again, that that
(17:03):
is the type of thing that could.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Leave you with a triple digit silver.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
Price if what Bloomberg is quoting an LBMA person is
saying is accurate and turns out to be the case.
And I will add to that that I have heard
that especially even not just retail or you know, bullion dealers,
but on the banking side that people are legitimately concerned
(17:30):
about what is happening in silver. So I do think
this is a significant situation. And if you get an under,
you get a real not like well some metals coming over,
But if you get to that point where it's not there,
then you.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Have a much bigger price in fifty eight.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
All right, Well, you're talking about a twenty percent correction
that would have to occur if that, in fact did happen.
And I'm just looking at this, you know, flowing through
mid November, but if you stretch that out into end
of year, if we do see you know, activities around that,
that would be a pretty significant move on silver in general.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
And we have not seen. I mean, this has been
a you.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Know, a metal that has had a lot of sideways,
even though it's been coming up slightly since all the
way back in March, after that dip back in March
of twenty twenty three, trading what at that time was
around twenty bucks. So the asset itself has more than
doubled in just a very short period of time. So
maybe this is a continued Maybe this is finally a
(18:33):
cycle in which the raw materials are at a critical
breaking point to your you know, kind of to what
you're alluding to, and if that does happen, oh, this
could be a big one for sure. Do you feel
like silver could be the breakout trade versus gold if
you were going precious metals, go with silver versus gold.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
In terms of an investment, I think having a mix
is good, although if I had to say over the
next big move, if I only had one, I think
that would be silver right now, because big is that
the gold isn't used industrially and we have this silver now.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Chris, we have to be clear as you're a silver
guy though, right, I.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Mean I guess more silver guyle, though I have updated
that and used to have only silver, and then in
the last couple of years with thinking that if we
do have to go to some sort of revaluation, there
are a couple of reasons why I think.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
It's more likely to be gold and gold and silver.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
But with that said, I think the supply issue is
a problem.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Right, So supply issue on silver if you want to
hedge against that. Gold is more of evaluation reposition where
we're seeing the weakness to the dollar of the dollar
versus gold. A lot more countries now starting to seek
out gold in terms of a reserve asset, upgraded a
Tier one obviously a lot of those kind of benefits
for play into this. So, man, this is getting kind
(20:02):
of crazy. I'm going to be very closely watching this.
We've just started recently, i'd say, in the last year,
trying to cover what's happening. We met Andy Shackman, who's
kind of educated us a little bit of where this
market is going. So it's been fun learning more about
silver and gold as terms of an asset. We'll definitely
get you back in on the show soon. Okay, thanks
(20:25):
for coming in. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
I appreciate that, Paul, thanks so much for having me.
Great talking with you.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
You bet all right, guys, make sure and jump into
the Diamond Circle. It's a place where you guys can
get additional content from us. All you have to do,
of course, is click a link down below and follow
me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch
you next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.
Silver and gold are taking a bloodbath right now. Today
we want to break into a little bit more about
what's happening in the market. You don't want to miss
this one today, guys. Let's just jump right into it.
Let's go over to Google Trends, and if you look
at what's going on with Google trends right now with
silver price, gold price, and bitcoin price, you can start
to see a lot of things centering around, but all
(00:23):
very interesting in terms of the amount of people that
are starting to look at this, And we wanted to
bring in an expert to kind of really break this
down because there's been a big retraacement here. So Chris
is joining me, coming over from Arcadia Economics. If you
guys have not checked out his YouTube channel.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
Right here, it is, jump over there. He's got a
lot of videos that are.
Speaker 1 (00:42):
Very dialed into what's happening in the precious metals market.
Speaker 2 (00:46):
So welcome to the show, Chris.
Speaker 3 (00:47):
How are you, Paul, I'm doing great, Thanks so much
for having me here, And like you quite well pointed out,
it's not only a fascinating time in the silver market,
but really a historic time which I think things have
happened so quickly that. I mean age just what we've
seen over the past two years with the gold and
silver rally, and then that has been stunning in itself,
(01:09):
and then sure enough, there are people who've been waiting
forty five years to see silver break through fifty.
Speaker 4 (01:14):
We finally saw that happen last week.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
Obviously, there's been a correction this week, which I think
some people.
Speaker 4 (01:21):
Are a little concerned about, and as we.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
Can dig into, I think anytime you have something move
as much as it has, you might want to be
prepared for additional volatility.
Speaker 4 (01:30):
But it's it's wild what's happening right now.
Speaker 1 (01:32):
Do you feel that the commodity market right now is
topping or is this just a normal correction and you
feel like there's more more life left in this.
Speaker 3 (01:43):
I mean, I guess in that context that would lead
more towards the topping. I suppose it depends on what
timeframe someone's looking at.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Well, we've seen the.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Silver price come down a little bit, we've seen some
of the indications of and as we can get into,
I think it's safe to say that the silver market
a degree broke on October ninth, So we're seeing some
of that get resolved. Although if you take a step
out of the precious metals for a second and think
about what is happening with the Trump administration in response
(02:15):
to the fact that we're now at that point where
because of what's happened with manufacturing over the past twenty
five years and we're seeing it playing out with the
rare earths, that it's that situation that's not so ideal
where it's like, China, can we keep having some material
if we want to go to war and use it
against you? So we've reached Paul, I know you've heard
(02:38):
it for year as well. One day, you know, the
kicking the can down the road. We've finally gotten there
where this system is now preventing the military from doing
what the government wants it to do. So that's why
we're seeing a broader shift, which is being signified by
what's happening with the metals as we speak.
Speaker 1 (02:57):
But when you look at gold and silver right now,
was do you feel like that was the reason that
we saw the big crash and pullback. Why would we
not see more strength in these metals with this kind
of tension going on and also the fact that we've
got the dollar devaluing at the same time.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
When you see the crash and the pullback. Are you
talking about just the last couple of days?
Speaker 4 (03:19):
A couple of days, yeah, I mean gold.
Speaker 3 (03:20):
Was thirty three hundred bucks on August eighteenth. It'd gone
up one thousand dollars in two months. These are haven't
measured the exact pace against twenty eleven. I think this
last leg may have out done it. You could take
any market in any scenario blindly, and if you see
(03:41):
a move like that, there's going to be days where
it sells off.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
So more just profit taking is kind of what you're
getting at.
Speaker 3 (03:49):
I mean, there's I guess you could, Yeah, you could
call it that. I mean, there's going to be corrections,
and especially we saw what happened when silver cross thirty
dollars and then just bust right through. There were a
lot of fireworks around that, and I thought when we
get to fifty, you were likely to see that.
Speaker 4 (04:04):
Sure enough, we have.
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Nothing has changed in terms of the underlying reasons, and
there still is not just what I was starting to
say and others were starting to say, but now Bloomberg,
according to them, references and someone familiar with the LBMAS,
thinking that the LBMA doesn't think this is just the
silver is.
Speaker 4 (04:25):
Here and we need it here.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
Bloomberg cited them as saying a genuine shortage.
Speaker 1 (04:32):
So you believe there is one, You believe the shortage
is real. We're starting to see this play out in
the markets, even though there are some corrections for it.
Is this supply shock actually going to continue going forward?
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Well, it's nuanced. So let me be clear. We are
we actually running out of silver?
Speaker 3 (04:51):
No, because a lot of silver went over to the
Comax earlier this year, So right now they're playing a
silver in the US. Although India has to halt new
additions into their silver ETFs back beginning on October ninth,
articles set at the time that they expected the silver
in the next shipment, although in Bloomberg article they said
(05:12):
bloom JP Morgan was telling clients they're not going to
have any silver for India until at least end of
October into November. Then last week we saw the Royal
Mint talk about delays and getting the silver that they need.
And then a couple of days after that was when
Bloomberg put out the articles saying that the LBMA folks
(05:33):
are suggesting because I was trying to distinguish specifically what
you're saying there, is it just you could say there's
a shortage in India. We're seeing products shortages and other
areas around the globe. We're seeing there's clearly a shortage
in the London market. Now some metal has started leaving
the Comax which is presumably going to London or maybe
(05:56):
even directly to India. And it was very talking to
see that LBMA comment that they are calling Bloomberg referred
to them as saying a genuine shortage.
Speaker 4 (06:05):
So, okay, the evidence is piling up on that.
Speaker 1 (06:09):
What would it take right now for to create an
Andy Scheckman who comes on our show a lot.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
He's a big silver.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Guy and he's been talking about this with me over
the past six months, is that there there is a
problem or could be a problem on a failure to deliver.
What would it take for a failure to deliver occur,
especially in silver.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Well, there's a school of thought that that actually did
occur back on October ninth. It does appear that something
of that nature happened. Normally the futures trades over the
spot price right right, that got inverted with the London
spot price going over the futures price, and on October ninth,
I mean if it goes over by thirty or forty
(06:52):
cent sets a lot. Morning of October ninth it was
about a buck twenty over, and by eleven o'clock that
morning it had gone up to two fifty sold out
in India. Panic in London how the silver market broke.
So what you're seeing is that they do have a shortage.
And as that price went up, metals started coming from
the comacs again, presumably back to London, although I don't
(07:16):
see that as a long term fixed because what ultimately
got us here in the first place is that and
I know Andy's probably told you plenty about this, yeah,
is that you have the free float in London has
been declining, and now we've had banks writing about it.
I've been talking about it, other people have been speaking
of it, and we finally hit the danger zone where
(07:38):
the amount of silver to underpin the physical market.
Speaker 4 (07:41):
Is too low. So right now we're going to see
where else it comes from.
Speaker 3 (07:45):
But that still will not address the longer term issue
if we keep running deficits and growing and midst growing
industrial demand.
Speaker 1 (07:53):
It appears that a lot of the countries are also
trying to lock it in, as well as some of
these exchanges that are trying to sell it, and then
you've got the situation with the ETFs that also play
into this. You would think that silver would still be
on maybe just a short correction and a track back up.
Speaker 2 (08:10):
Do you feel like we have hit.
Speaker 1 (08:12):
The bottom on silver just yesterday or do you think
that it has a shot to go back to forty dollars.
Speaker 3 (08:18):
I think you're in an environment where people should not
be surprised by extreme moves in other directions.
Speaker 4 (08:23):
Okay, because as we've.
Speaker 3 (08:24):
Learned over the past couple of years, decades, for some
there is what's happening in the physical market, and there's
also what's happening as priced by the COMEX futures.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
And despite the times of what we.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Think would be logical and how they should be correlated,
you have a lot especially now, you've had mainstream money
piling in now, so that is really started over the
past two months, the commodities and the stocks.
Speaker 4 (08:53):
So you have a lot of people that know very
little about.
Speaker 3 (08:56):
Anything we just said here that are pushing money back
and forth. Similar to how we saw silver go to
twelve dollars when COVID broke out, and then a couple
months later finally broke through twenty was at twenty nine
bucks a couple of weeks later. I would suggest that
we're in an environment where it would be wise to
be prepared for big swings. I think it's possible the
(09:20):
price of silver is lowered than it is today five
or ten years from now. I think that's pretty unlikely.
But in terms of saying that the bottom is in
or it can't go lower, not saying that it necessarily will.
But you have a lot of hot money flowing around there,
and you're I would suggest not to be surprised by
(09:40):
the types of moves that we saw this past Friday
and yesterday, because you are going to see that.
Speaker 1 (09:47):
Yeah, and you look at the market tenacity that we're
dealing with right now. A lot of people look at
these rotations that seem to be occurring.
Speaker 2 (09:55):
Some people said gold.
Speaker 1 (09:57):
Some analysts are saying we're seeing gold rotation, coming out
of gold into bitcoin, some saying we're coming out of
digital assets and into precious metals. There's a lot of
money on the sidelines as well as into some of
these critical assets that are starting to move around to
your point. One thing I want to kind of clarify
because a lot of people are trying to figure out
(10:18):
how do you get silver, and in many cases they
might just go out and buy, you know, SLV or
another alternative. What would be the best way if you're
not looking to say, take physical delivery for silver, what
would you say is the best if.
Speaker 4 (10:34):
You just wanted price exposure.
Speaker 2 (10:36):
For a price exposure on silver?
Speaker 3 (10:38):
I mean, in that case, I think SLV is fine
to use it for that if you're concerned about how
does this unravel when the debt loads are actually addressed,
and certainly I think silver is more appropriate for that.
But you know, if you think you want to put
a trade on because silver is going to go up
a dollar tomorrow, I mean you don't want to do
(10:58):
that with physical silver because you're going to.
Speaker 4 (11:00):
Be paying exhibtion. We're going to heat that up.
Speaker 3 (11:03):
So shorter term stuff, yeah, solb or it's also AGQ,
which is a leveraged one. I probably should have said
that because not appropriate.
Speaker 4 (11:11):
For most people. But yeah, the etf.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
OK for a short term move, but I think physical
has its rightful place for what most people are trying
to capture or likely watching this, Chris.
Speaker 1 (11:24):
Do you think we're going to see more bleeding of
gold into bitcoin if in fact that is what is happening,
because it's kind of you could go either way right
now because gold and bitcoin are both down this week.
What what's your thought on that?
Speaker 3 (11:38):
Oh, I mean, I guess that's possible with the way
a lot of stuff is.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
I'll go programmed right now.
Speaker 3 (11:45):
Yes, there's an overlap, although I find the bitcoin and
precious metals markets very often tend to do their.
Speaker 4 (11:54):
Own thing as well. Yeah. Yeah, And as you well know,
there's also a lot of peopleeople who are one or
the other.
Speaker 3 (12:01):
I don't know that it has to be that way,
and I see people getting all angry and or out
of fighting about it. Yet slightly different profile between the two,
So I would not think that that's going to necessarily
be driving gold further.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
We had an expert on the show yesterday, and this
was a company called Denario. They are a tokenized silver
and they basically hold that against a token that goes
against backed you know, physical back silver, which is industrial grade.
They's you know, kind of an interesting scenario there with Donario.
(12:39):
But the point I wanted to bring up was is
I asked him what he thought silver's top could be,
and he felt like we could see triple digits on silver.
Speaker 2 (12:49):
What's your opinion.
Speaker 4 (12:50):
I think that's really good happen.
Speaker 3 (12:51):
I mean, if you have a break and an overt
shortage where you don't have you have manufacturers that can't get.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
What they need to use. Probably the comp I look to.
Speaker 3 (13:01):
I don't know if you have a cocoa chart handy there,
but they finally ran into those supply issues and been
trading around. I think it was like two thousand dollars
a contract for the last two decades and then.
Speaker 4 (13:12):
It shot up to nine or ten thousand.
Speaker 3 (13:15):
Also, we saw in the nickel market briefly a few
years back what happens when someone gets caught off side
with a short position. So I mean hundreds of big price.
So can it get there?
Speaker 4 (13:26):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (13:26):
See, like we've gotten to the point where there's an
issue in LBMA, does it get resolved?
Speaker 4 (13:31):
Does it get resolved for half long? But you know
metal's going back there.
Speaker 3 (13:35):
But if we're a month from now and that issue
has gotten worse and people are starting to realize that
there's a shortage in a scramble, I think that or
if you finally have the treasure, you get to the
point where they just run into a problem they can't
get out of. I think you kind of need something
like that before you're going to see triple digits.
Speaker 2 (13:55):
Triple digits.
Speaker 1 (13:56):
Okay, all right, So there's a couple of things that
are happening in the gold market. This has mostly been
looked at in terms of token ized commodities. We track
this one pretty heavily, obviously, tether gold, paxos.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Holding in there.
Speaker 1 (14:09):
But you can kind of see the growth that we've
seen a very short period of time of assets rolling
into xaut paxos gold.
Speaker 2 (14:18):
But yet we have not seen this in silver.
Speaker 1 (14:20):
Obviously, there's not a token ised silver available at least
that we know of outside of these you know, very
obscure ones like what we saw with the DSc token
we were talking about yesterday, And you look at this,
Is this a better opportunity to maybe hedge these markets
by going into these digital versions who are physical, you know,
buying physical assets to back that token. Is that a
(14:44):
better hedge going in versus just going in and buying
you know, physical and trying to take delivery for.
Speaker 4 (14:50):
Gold and silver.
Speaker 3 (14:51):
One of the advantages that you can have is that
if it is designed correctly and you want to actually
send someone one hundred dollars worth of to another part
of the globe. Yeah, that what I think could be useful,
and I think we'll see more of that. There's certainly
some of those out there now. Of course, in today's environment,
(15:12):
like with any investment or any company, you want to
be careful because certainly we have seen than when money
is flowing into a market, especially like is happening in
gold and silver. Now, I imagine we'll continue to see them.
So it would just be very careful with the research
and unless you can't hold it or you're going to
need to be sending it, you know, at least think
(15:33):
of physical as a first step.
Speaker 1 (15:35):
Yeah, I understand, and you know, I hear it so
much from a lot of the silver guys, is that
they're really pushed the physical attribution of precious metals in
general when you look at the benefits of where gold
and silver kind of play, especially when you throw bitcoin
into the crowd, because this seems to be the discussion
(15:56):
right now, is bitcoin silver gold? Those are the discussions
that investors are looking at in terms of alternatives could
silver benefit from gold actually losing to bitcoin? So if
gold starts to slide, bitcoin starts to move, do you
think we could see a rotation into silver.
Speaker 3 (16:15):
I would think if you have a significant downfall in
the gold price, silver would probably most likely to match.
Speaker 2 (16:21):
That on Okay, so I'd follow along, all right? Interesting?
Speaker 1 (16:25):
Last question I have for you is silver price prediction.
Do you have an end of year I know yours
is a much longer time horizon around the silver market,
but if you were looking at this by end of year,
is anywhere you're kind of pointing to on the silver chart.
Speaker 3 (16:40):
Oh, let's see if we're in October twenty second. Now
I'll pick my end of year unofficial target of let's
say fifty eight. With the possibility that you could find
out we have another flare up with what's happening at
the LBMA and any what happens there again, that that
(17:03):
is the type of thing that could.
Speaker 4 (17:05):
Leave you with a triple digit silver.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
Price if what Bloomberg is quoting an LBMA person is
saying is accurate and turns out to be the case.
And I will add to that that I have heard
that especially even not just retail or you know, bullion dealers,
but on the banking side that people are legitimately concerned
(17:30):
about what is happening in silver. So I do think
this is a significant situation. And if you get an under,
you get a real not like well some metals coming over,
But if you get to that point where it's not there,
then you.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
Have a much bigger price in fifty eight.
Speaker 1 (17:49):
All right, Well, you're talking about a twenty percent correction
that would have to occur if that, in fact did happen.
And I'm just looking at this, you know, flowing through
mid November, but if you stretch that out into end
of year, if we do see you know, activities around that,
that would be a pretty significant move on silver in general.
Speaker 2 (18:09):
And we have not seen. I mean, this has been
a you.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Know, a metal that has had a lot of sideways,
even though it's been coming up slightly since all the
way back in March, after that dip back in March
of twenty twenty three, trading what at that time was
around twenty bucks. So the asset itself has more than
doubled in just a very short period of time. So
maybe this is a continued Maybe this is finally a
(18:33):
cycle in which the raw materials are at a critical
breaking point to your you know, kind of to what
you're alluding to, and if that does happen, oh, this
could be a big one for sure. Do you feel
like silver could be the breakout trade versus gold if
you were going precious metals, go with silver versus gold.
Speaker 5 (18:53):
In terms of an investment, I think having a mix
is good, although if I had to say over the
next big move, if I only had one, I think
that would be silver right now, because big is that
the gold isn't used industrially and we have this silver now.
Speaker 1 (19:14):
Chris, we have to be clear as you're a silver
guy though, right, I.
Speaker 3 (19:17):
Mean I guess more silver guyle, though I have updated
that and used to have only silver, and then in
the last couple of years with thinking that if we
do have to go to some sort of revaluation, there
are a couple of reasons why I think.
Speaker 4 (19:32):
It's more likely to be gold and gold and silver.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
But with that said, I think the supply issue is
a problem.
Speaker 1 (19:39):
Right, So supply issue on silver if you want to
hedge against that. Gold is more of evaluation reposition where
we're seeing the weakness to the dollar of the dollar
versus gold. A lot more countries now starting to seek
out gold in terms of a reserve asset, upgraded a
Tier one obviously a lot of those kind of benefits
for play into this. So, man, this is getting kind
(20:02):
of crazy. I'm going to be very closely watching this.
We've just started recently, i'd say, in the last year,
trying to cover what's happening. We met Andy Shackman, who's
kind of educated us a little bit of where this
market is going. So it's been fun learning more about
silver and gold as terms of an asset. We'll definitely
get you back in on the show soon. Okay, thanks
(20:25):
for coming in. I appreciate it.
Speaker 3 (20:27):
I appreciate that, Paul, thanks so much for having me.
Great talking with you.
Speaker 1 (20:31):
You bet all right, guys, make sure and jump into
the Diamond Circle. It's a place where you guys can
get additional content from us. All you have to do,
of course, is click a link down below and follow
me out there on X at Paul Baron. We'll catch
you next time right here on The Paul Baron Show.
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